Snow Drift and Avalanche Activity In
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SNOW DRIFT AND AVALANCHE ACTIVITY IN A HIGH ARCTIC MARITIME SNOW CLIMATE by Holt John Hancock A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Earth Sciences MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY Bozeman, Montana November 2016 ©COPYRIGHT by Holt John Hancock 2016 All Rights Reserved ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank Dr. Jordy Hendrikx and Dr. Hanne H. Christiansen for establishing this opportunity to study in Svalbard. I am grateful to Dr. Karl Birkeland and Stuart Challender for their guidance through the changes in this project and their willingness to critique multiple iterations of this thesis during the summer. This work would not have been possible without Matt Wieland’s original email notifying me of this research opportunity, Ty Mack’s benevolence as a landlord and cousin, and all my friends who dealt with panicked late-night texts. Thanks to Dave, Bob, Mike, Chelan, Taylor, Will, and everyone else at Big Sky for allowing me to (attempt to) balance school and work. In Svalbard, I thank Dr. Max Eckerstorfer, Wes, and Dr. Alex Prokop for the scientific advice and the opportunity for continued involvement with snow and avalanche research at UNIS, Sara Mollie for help with everything Svalbard related, and the fine scientists on the 3rd floor for keeping motivation levels high(ish). The Svalbard Science Forum, the Montana Association of Geographic Information Professionals, teaching assistantships from the Department of Earth Sciences at MSU and the Arctic Geology Department at UNIS, and a grant from Kongsberg Satellite Services all provided funding for this work. Finally, I thank my parents, Julie and Scott Hancock, for all their support over the years and instilling in me a love of cold, wild places and my sister, Eliza Hancock, for being my oldest friend. Brenna Kelleher’s unconditional love, support, ski coaching, and well-timed visit to Svalbard made this work possible and enjoyable. I would still be fretting about the “knee issue” without you. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................1 1.1 Background Information............................................................................................1 1.2 Research Questions....................................................................................................5 2. LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................6 2.1 A Note on Terminology .............................................................................................6 2.2 Snow Drift Processes .................................................................................................7 2.3 Avalanche Forecasting and Synoptic Understanding of Avalanche Processes ..................................................................................................................20 2.3.1 Snow Climate Classifications ........................................................................ 22 2.3.2 Synoptic Avalanche Forecasting ................................................................... 24 2.3.3 Statistical Avalanche Forecasting ................................................................. 25 2.4 Snow and Avalanche Research in Svalbard ............................................................27 3. STUDY AREA ..............................................................................................................30 3.1 Physical Setting .......................................................................................................30 3.2 Climatic and Meteorological Setting .......................................................................33 3.3 Snow Climate of Svalbard .......................................................................................34 4. METHODS ....................................................................................................................38 4.1 Data Sources ............................................................................................................38 4.1.1 Local Meteorological Observations .............................................................. 42 4.1.2 Road Closures on the SvalSat Road and Selection of Drift Events ............................................................................................................ 45 4.1.3 Avalanche Observations ................................................................................ 48 4.2 Manual Drift Observations ......................................................................................49 4.3 Meteorological Data Analyses.................................................................................52 4.3.1 Standardization/Aggregation of Meteorological Data .................................. 53 4.3.2 Extension/Gap-Filling of the SvalSat Temperature and Wind Speed Records ............................................................................................... 54 4.3.3 Statistical Differentiation Between Drift Events and Non- Events ............................................................................................................ 56 4.3.4 Synoptic Analyses ......................................................................................... 56 4.4 Drift Events and Regional Avalanche Observations ...............................................58 4.5 Snow Drift Severity Calculations ............................................................................60 4.5.1 Potential Annual Snow Transport and Snow Transport Severity Classification ................................................. 60 4.6 Devising Appropriate Snow Fence Strategies for the SvalSat Road .......................63 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS - CONTINUED 4.6.1 Design Transport ........................................................................................... 63 4.6.2 Calculating Required Snow Fence Height .................................................... 64 5. RESULTS ......................................................................................................................66 5.1 Manual Drift Observations ......................................................................................67 5.2 Local Meteorological Conditions at SvalSat During Drift Events ..........................70 5.2.1 Wind Speed and Direction ............................................................................ 76 5.2.2 Air Temperature ............................................................................................ 78 5.2.3 Precipitation................................................................................................... 80 5.3 Synoptic Patterns During Drift Events ....................................................................82 5.4 Case Studies .............................................................................................................98 5.4.1 March 2007.................................................................................................... 98 5.4.2 May 2009 ..................................................................................................... 101 5.4.3 January 2010................................................................................................ 103 5.4.4 March 2011.................................................................................................. 106 5.5 Snow Transport Severity Calculations………………………………………109 5.5.1 Snow Supply and Snow Transport Severity Calculations ........................................................ 109 5.5.2 Snow Fence Design ..................................................................................... 114 6. DISCUSSION ..............................................................................................................118 6.1 Study Limitations ..................................................................................................119 6.2 Manual Drift Observations ....................................................................................122 6.3 Local and Synoptic Meteorological Conditions during Drift Events ....................124 6.3.1 Local Meteorological Conditions ................................................................ 124 6.3.2 Synoptic Conditions .................................................................................... 129 6.4 Snow Drift and Avalanche Activity in Svalbard ...................................................133 6.5 Implications for Snow Fences in Svalbard ............................................................139 7. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................142 7.1 Key Findings..........................................................................................................142 7.2 Research Challenges and Future Work .................................................................143 REFERENCES CITED ....................................................................................................145 APPENDICES .................................................................................................................156 APPENDIX A: Daily Drift Event Summaries ............................................................157 APPENDIX B: Manual Drift Observation Field Data ................................................166 v LIST OF TABLES Table ....................... Page 1. Characteristics and key findings of selected snow drift