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Climate in Svalbard 2100 M-1242 | 2018 Climate in Svalbard 2100 – a knowledge base for climate adaptation NCCS report no. 1/2019 Photo: Ketil Isaksen, MET Norway Editors I.Hanssen-Bauer, E.J.Førland, H.Hisdal, S.Mayer, A.B.Sandø, A.Sorteberg CLIMATE IN SVALBARD 2100 CLIMATE IN SVALBARD 2100 Commissioned by Title: Date Climate in Svalbard 2100 January 2019 – a knowledge base for climate adaptation ISSN nr. Rapport nr. 2387-3027 1/2019 Authors Classification Editors: I.Hanssen-Bauer1,12, E.J.Førland1,12, H.Hisdal2,12, Free S.Mayer3,12,13, A.B.Sandø5,13, A.Sorteberg4,13 Clients Authors: M.Adakudlu3,13, J.Andresen2, J.Bakke4,13, S.Beldring2,12, R.Benestad1, W. Bilt4,13, J.Bogen2, C.Borstad6, Norwegian Environment Agency (Miljødirektoratet) K.Breili9, Ø.Breivik1,4, K.Y.Børsheim5,13, H.H.Christiansen6, A.Dobler1, R.Engeset2, R.Frauenfelder7, S.Gerland10, H.M.Gjelten1, J.Gundersen2, K.Isaksen1,12, C.Jaedicke7, H.Kierulf9, J.Kohler10, H.Li2,12, J.Lutz1,12, K.Melvold2,12, Client’s reference 1,12 4,6 2,12 5,8,13 A.Mezghani , F.Nilsen , I.B.Nilsen , J.E.Ø.Nilsen , http://www.miljodirektoratet.no/M1242 O. Pavlova10, O.Ravndal9, B.Risebrobakken3,13, T.Saloranta2, S.Sandven6,8,13, T.V.Schuler6,11, M.J.R.Simpson9, M.Skogen5,13, L.H.Smedsrud4,6,13, M.Sund2, D. Vikhamar-Schuler1,2,12, S.Westermann11, W.K.Wong2,12 Affiliations: See Acknowledgements! Abstract The Norwegian Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) is collaboration between the Norwegian Meteorological In- This report was commissioned by the Norwegian Environment Agency in order to provide basic information for use stitute, the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Norwegian Research Centre and the Bjerknes in climate change adaptation in Svalbard. It includes descriptions of historical, as well as projections for the future Centre for Climate Research. The main purpose of NCCS is to provide decision makers in Norway with relevant climate development in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and ocean, and it includes effects on the physi- information regarding climate change adaptation. In addition to the partners, the Norwegian Environment cal nature e.g. on permafrost and various types of landslides and avalanches. The projections for the future climate Agency is represented on the Board. are based on results in the IPCCs fifth assessment report. The report is to a large degree an assessment of exist- ing literature and model results. New results from atmosphere, ocean and hydrological models are, however, also presented. The report may be downloaded from the Norwegian Centre for Climate Service’s web portal The NCCS report series includes reports where one or more authors are affiliated to the Centre, as well as www.klimaservicesenter.no. reports initiated by the Centre. All reports in the series have undergone a professional assessment by at least one expert associated with the Centre. They may also be included in report series from the institutions to which the authors are affiliated. Keywords Climate in Svalbard, projections, temperature, precipitation, wind, runoff, floods, sediment transport, snow, glaciers, permafrost, landslides and avalanches, ocean climate, sea ice, sea level Disciplinary signature Responsible signature 2 3 CLIMATE IN SVALBARD 2100 CLIMATE IN SVALBARD 2100 7. PERMAFROST, AVALANCHES AND LANDSLIDES ...................113 Contents 7.1 Permafrost temperatures and active layer thickness ......................113 7.2 Solifluction .........................................................118 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .............................................7 7.3 Avalanches and landslides ............................................119 SUMMARY .........................................................8 8 OCEAN, ACIDIFICATION, SEA ICE AND SEA LEVEL..................126 SAMMENDRAG ....................................................14 8.1 Past, present and future climate around Svalbard ........................126 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................20 8.2 Acidification ........................................................131 1.1 Rationale and background .............................................20 8.3 Sea ice ............................................................135 1.2 Contents of the report.................................................21 8.4 Sea level ...........................................................140 2. THE CLIMATE SYSTEM IN THE SVALBARD AREA, 9. ASSESSMENT AND USE OF PROJECTIONS ........................146 INCLUDING ADJACENT SEA AREAS .................................22 9.1 Uncertainties related to the climate projections...........................146 2.1 Atmospheric circulation ...............................................22 9.2 Treatment of uncertainties in different variables .........................148 2.2 Ocean circulation and sea ice ..........................................24 9.3 Recommendations...................................................151 2.3 Arctic amplification and feedbacks ......................................26 10. LONGYEARBYEN..............................................152 3. METHODS, DATA, MODELS . .28 10.1 Atmosphere .......................................................154 3.1 Methods and data, atmosphere .........................................28 10.2 Hydrology, snow and glaciers . 157 3.2 Methods and data, hydrology...........................................34 10.3 Permafrost, landslides and avalanches ................................164 3.3 Methods and data, glaciers.............................................38 10.4 Ocean ............................................................168 3.4 Methods and data, permafrost ..........................................42 10.5 Synthesis .........................................................169 3.5 Methods and data, ocean ..............................................43 REFERENCES . 170 3.6 Methods, data and models, sea level ....................................46 APPENDIX .......................................................192 4. ATMOSPHERIC CLIMATE . .49 A1: Climate model results applied for the atmospheric projections in this report..192 4.1 Air temperature ......................................................49 A2: Climate projections for temperature....................................196 4.2 Variables derived from air temperature...................................60 A3: Climate projections for precipitation . .203 4.3 Precipitation.........................................................64 AUTHORS........................................................204 4.4 Heavy rainfall ........................................................74 4.5 Wind, cyclonic activity and waves . 77 5. HYDROLOGY ...................................................81 5.1 Runoff ..............................................................81 5.2 Snow ...............................................................94 5.3 Erosion and sediment transport ........................................99 6. GLACIERS .....................................................101 6.1 Holocene glacier change . .101 6.2 Recent glacier front retreat............................................102 6.3 Glaciological mass balance ...........................................105 6.4 Geodetic mass balance...............................................106 6.5 Mass balance modelling .............................................107 6.6 Projections for future climate..........................................109 6.7 Gravity ............................................................112 4 5 CLIMATE IN SVALBARD 2100 CLIMATE IN SVALBARD 2100 Acknowledgements This report was commissioned by the Norwegian Environment Agency. Forty-eight authors from eleven institutions and two research centres have contributed. The numbers below identify the affiliations given in the list of authors: 1. Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway) 2. Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) 3. Norwegian Research Centre (NORCE) 4. University of Bergen (UiB) 5. Institute of Marine Research (IMR) 6. The University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS) 7. Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) 8. Nansen Center (NERSC) 9. Norwegian Mapping Authority (Kartverket) 10. Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI) 11. University of Oslo (UiO) 12. Norwegian Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) 13. Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR) The Norwegian Environment Agency is the principal source of funding for the report. The above men- tioned institutions have, however, contributed with considerable in-kind. The editors and lead authors are responsible for the scientific content of the report.We want to acknowl- edge Deborah Lawrence and Howard Parker for correcting the English language in parts of the manuscript. Thanks also to Magne Velle for report design, and to several photographers who enabled us to brighten up this report with their excellent photographs. 6 7 CLIMATE IN SVALBARD 2100 CLIMATE IN SVALBARD 2100 The report is to a large degree an assessment of Precipitation. Mean annual precipitation (1971- existing literature and model results, e.g. the Arctic 2000) measured at the weather stations in Svalbard CORDEX regional climate models. In addition, varied from 196 mm (Svalbard Airport) to 581 mm a fine scale atmospheric regional climate model (Barentsburg). The estimated average annual pre- (COSMO-CLM) has been run, and the results were cipitation for the Svalbard land areas is about 720 Summary applied for estimating changes in e.g. heavy rainfall, mm. Some of the difference between measured and frost days, snow, permafrost
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