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Xiaomi Corp 01810 (XHKG) Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 27 Aug 2020 04:38, UTC | Page 1 of 14 Xiaomi Corp 01810 (XHKG) Morningstar Rating Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/Fair Value Trailing Dividend Yield % Forward Dividend Yield % Market Cap (Bil) Industry Stewardship QQ 21.35 HKD 12.50 HKD 1.71 — 0.00 514.01 Consumer Electronics Standard 27 Aug 2020 27 Aug 2020 27 Aug 2020 27 Aug 2020 27 Aug 2020 27 Aug 2020 16:22, UTC 06:04, UTC Morningstar Pillars Analyst Quantitative Important Disclosure: Economic Moat None None The conduct of Morningstar’s analysts is governed by Code of Ethics/Code of Conduct Policy, Personal Security Trading Policy (or an equivalent of), Valuation QQ Overvalued and Investment Research Policy. For information regarding conflicts of interest, please visit http://global.morningstar.com/equitydisclosures Uncertainty Very High High Financial Health — Strong Xiaomi’s Q2 Below Estimates, but Fair Value Estimate Increased to HKD Source: Morningstar Equity Research 12.50 on Likely Huawei Gains Quantitative Valuation 01810 Business Strategy and Outlook decline of 40%. The profit decline was driven by cost aCYM Dan Baker, Analyst, 27 August 2020 increases across the board with selling & marketing Undervalued Fairly Valued Overvalued Investors in Xiaomi will be hoping the company can expenses up 40%, administrative expenses up 16%, and leverage its proven ability to manufacture and market research and development costs up 26%. The impact of Current 5-Yr Avg Sector Country the pandemic in key markets such as India was a driver of Price/Quant Fair Value 1.44 — 0.77 0.78 good value-for-money smartphone hardware into a sticky Price/Earnings 41.7 — 21.4 12.9 software ecosystem that will allow the company to the lower-than-expected results but heavy promotional Forward P/E 38.6 — 15.9 11.9 increase its margins and returns. It will also try to use its expense weighed on the profit. We downgraded our 2020 Price/Cash Flow 17.6 — 15.6 10.3 "Internet of Things" products to help build this ecosystem. operating profit forecasts by 17% following this result. Price/Free Cash Flow 20.5 — 23.0 15.5 Trailing Dividend Yield% — — 1.89 3.53 The company has committed to limit its margins on Despite this, we made large upgrades to our forecasts Source: Morningstar hardware products (smartphones and Internet of Things) to 5% so it will really need this software ecosystem. from 2022 onwards as we now assume that Huawei will Bulls Say However, the company is still generating around 90% of not produce smartphones from 2022 and Xiaomi will pick OWith U.S. rules preventing Huawei sourcing its revenue from this lower-margin hardware. up an extra 4% of the global smartphone market share on semiconductors with U.S. technology used in top of its current market share of around 10%. Despite production, Xiaomi could benefit from Huawei The Chinese consumer Internet of Things market is still in smartphones being Xiaomi’s lowest-margin product we ceasing smartphone production. its early stages. Other large companies such as Alibaba, would expect the increased smartphone share to flow OIf Xiaomi can successfully cross-sell enough of its Huawei, Haier, and Baidu are also targeting this market through to higher Internet and Internet of Things and consumer Internet of Things products it may be able with large customer bases from their core businesses and lifestyle product revenue. to generate an economic moat based on switching each has its own Internet of Things ecosystem. We believe costs. it is too early to say how this market will play out--which This changed assumption, along with the CNY 4.7 billion lift in the value of Xiaomi’s investment portfolio over the OXiaomi has adapted quickly to changing market standards will win out, whether multiple standards will quarter, lifts our fair value estimate to HKD 12.50 from conditions in the smartphone market. This should put exist and how they may interwork. Regarding Internet HKD 10.00 previously. Our no-moat rating is retained as it in good position for the Internet of Things market. services, we are also concerned about the competition from existing Chinese Internet companies in areas such we believe Xiaomi is predominantly an electronics hardware supplier with limited switching costs with its Bears Say as mobile advertising, game distribution, mobile payments, and cloud services. We expect Xiaomi will Internet services business not yet well developed enough OXiaomi faces strong competition from the biggest grow strongly in these areas but not enough to justify a to assign a moat to. On our estimates, Xiaomi currently Chinese Internet companies in the high margin large premium valuation compared with that paid for a trades on a 2021 price/earnings ratio of 36 times. Internet services business. typical smartphone manufacturer. OThe fates of Nokia and BlackBerry highlight the Xiaomi’s growing Internet of Things and lifestyle services fickle nature of the mobile phone market and how Given Xiaomi almost doubled its smartphone market share business and Internet services revenue give it some technology changes can drastically change the in 2017 from 2016, it grew its revenue and earnings well differentiation from other consumer electronics peers that fortunes of companies. above market levels in 2017 and 2018. However, since usually trade at cheaper multiples but this multiple also O Xiaomi faces competition from Alibaba, Haier, and then, its global smartphone market share has since looks pretty stretched to us after the stock has run over Baidu in forming consumer Internet of Things flattened in the 9%-11% range. With Huawei potentially 100% in the past eight months. ecosystems. being forced out of the smartphone market via U.S. rules on semiconductor access, we forecast Xiaomi's global Economic Moat smartphone share to increase to around 14%. Dan Baker, Analyst, 27 August 2020 We believe Xiaomi has no economic moat as potential Analyst Note moats in areas such as switching costs, network effect, Dan Baker, Analyst, 27 August 2020 and intangible assets are not developed enough yet. Xiaomi’s second-quarter 2020 was below our expectations with revenue growth of 3.1% year on year, The only smartphone supplier to which we give an and an operating profit (ex-investment valuation gains) economic moat is Apple, which has a narrow moat based © Morningstar 2020. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall ? not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report. Morningstar Equity Analyst Report |Page 2 of 14 Xiaomi Corp 01810 (XHKG) Morningstar Rating Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/Fair Value Trailing Dividend Yield % Forward Dividend Yield % Market Cap (Bil) Industry Stewardship QQ 21.35 HKD 12.50 HKD 1.71 — 0.00 514.01 Consumer Electronics Standard 27 Aug 2020 27 Aug 2020 27 Aug 2020 27 Aug 2020 27 Aug 2020 27 Aug 2020 16:22, UTC 06:04, UTC Close Competitors Currency (Mil) Market Cap TTM Sales Operating Margin TTM/PE consumer-facing Internet of Things is performing better in Apple Inc AAPL USD 2,163,856 273,857 24.52 38.17 China and shows more potential. This is helped by the strong adoption of mobile payment services by Chinese Apple Inc 0R2V USD 2,163,856 273,857 24.52 38.17 customers, who can use these services to make small Apple Inc AAPL USD 2,163,856 273,857 24.52 38.31 payments sometimes required by Internet of Things Kyocera Corp KYOCY USD 21,116 14,227 5.56 22.83 endpoints. on switching costs. While Samsung Electronics also has a narrow moat, this is based solely on its semi-conductor Apart from Xiaomi, a number of other large companies are business, not its smartphone business. Inherently, we see targeting the consumer Internet of Things market in China. minimal switching costs associated with smartphones, as These include Haier, Baidu, and Alibaba. All are at the all these devices can perform most necessary early stages in their development but have large existing functions--place calls, send texts, browse the web, run businesses to leverage off and the size to target this apps, and so on. While we can see some moaty elements market. A summary of their progress and ambitions in this in Xiaomi's MI User Interface, or MIUI, for switching costs market is provided below. We believe it is too early to tell and network effect, we think these are currently too weak if Xiaomi will be successful enough in this space to develop to provide a moat.
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