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Public Debt and European Expansionism in Morocco from 1860 to 1956

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Public Debt and European Expansionism in Morocco from 1860 to 1956 Master Public Policy and Development Master Dissertation Public debt and European expansionism in Morocco From 1860 to 1956 Adam Barbe August 2016 Supervisors Referee Denis Cogneau Eric Monnet Thomas Piketty 1 Abstract This master thesis aims at providing a global understanding of public debt in Morocco when the country was confronted to European expansionism. It documents its origins, its evolution and its implications by providing historical series on trade, debt, government re- ceipts and expenditures. These long-term data attempt to shed new light on the European expansion before 1914 and on the understanding of colonial economies. The debt crisis leading to the establishment of the protectorate was characterized by a level of indebtedness which would be considered as low compared to today's standards (40% of the GDP in 1910). It underlines the importance of the weight of the state when estimating a country's indebt- edness. Expressed as a share of the GDP, the level of indebtedness during the protectorate reached higher levels than before its establishment (70% of the GDP in 1935). The indebted- ness of Morocco stresses the importance of loans in the colonial economy. They represented a large part of the capital inflows offsetting the structural trade balance deficit and played a significant role in the investment effort during the protectorate. Morocco's indebtedness in the 1930s was almost entirely cancelled by the inflation due to the Second World War, revealing thus the destruction of France's colonial capital. This study of Moroccan debt also addresses the political implications of debt, in particular how debt translated into new institutions and how it impacted in the long-run the balance of power within the Moroccan economy. This work therefore gives historical insights on how inequalities between nations could be expressed and amplified by public debt. R´esum´e Ce m´emoire de master vise `acomprendre le processus d'endettement du Maroc lorsqu'il a ´et´econfront´e`al'expansion europ´eenne.Ses origines, son ´evolution et ses implications y sont analys´eesgr^ace`ala reconstitution de s´erieshistoriques sur le commerce ext´erieur,la dette, les recettes et les d´epenses de l'Etat marocain. Ces donn´eesde long terme visent `aapporter un ´eclairage nouveau `ala fois sur l'expansion europ´eenneavant 1914 et sur la compr´ehension des ´economiescoloniales. La crise de la dette qui a men´e`al'´etablissement du protectorat fran¸caisest ainsi caract´eris´eepar un niveau d'endettement ´etonnamment faible au regard des crit`eresactuels (40% du PIB en 1910). Le poids de l'Etat des ´economiespr´ecoloniales apparait comme un crit`erecl´edans la compr´ehensionde leur endettement. Exprim´een fonction au PIB, l'endettement du Maroc sous le protectorat atteint de plus hauts niveaux qu'avant son instauration (70% du PIB en 1935). Le poids de la dette marocaine r´ev`ele alors l'importance des emprunts dans l'´economiecoloniale. Ils repr´esent`erent en effet une partie significative des flux de capitaux compensant le d´eficitde la balance commerciale, tout en jouant un r^olemajeur dans l'´equipement du pays. Apr`esle pic atteint dans les ann´ees1930, la dette marocaine a ´et´epratiquement effac´eepar l’inflation cons´ecutive `ala Seconde Guerre mondiale, r´ev´elant ainsi la destruction du capital colonial. Cette ´etudesur la dette marocaine s’efforce ´egalement d'´eclairer les implications politiques de la dette. Elle a engendr´een particulier l'´emergencede nouvelles institutions et la modification durable des rapports de force au sein de l'´economiemarocaine. Ce travail contribue donc `adonner des ´el´ements de comparaisons historiques sur la fa¸condont la dette publique a refl´et´eet amplifi´e les in´egalit´esentre nations. 2 Remerciements Mes premiers remerciements sont destin´es`aDenis Cogneau et Thomas Piketty. Traiter ce sujet d'histoire ´economiquesous leur direction s'est av´er´epassionnant et je leur suis reconnais- sant de m'avoir encourag´e`ale traiter. Leurs pr´ecieuxconseils et leur accompagnement ont ´et´e d´eterminants `achacune des ´etapes de ce travail. Ce m´emoire´etant naturellement tributaire des donn´eesqu'il renferme, je suis grandement redevable aux archivistes qui m'ont aid´eet guid´edans mes recherches. Merci `aNancy Aravena, Jean-Charles Bouguet, Viviane Fritz et Camille Refauvelet de m'avoir chaleureusement accueilli dans les d´epartements d'archives du Cr´editAgricole et de BNP Paribas. Je remercie vivement Eric´ Monnet d'avoir accept´ed'^etre referee. Son invitation au s´eminaire sur la dette publique organis´een juin 2016 `aSciences Po par Nicolas Barreyre, Nicolas Delalande et Etienne Peyrat m'a permis par ailleurs d'enrichir ma r´eflexionpar des d´ebats de haute vol´ee. Enfin, les cours d'histoire du monde arabe contemporain de Pierre Vermeren suivis cette ann´ee`al'Universit´eParis I Panth´eon-Sorbonne ont ´et´ede pr´ecieusessources d'inspiration. Mes derni`erespens´eesvont `ama famille et `ames amis qui m'ont accompagn´eet aid´edans mes longues s´eancesde travail `al'ENS, Andr´ea,Mart`ınet Thomas. J'ai une pens´ee particuli`ere pour ma m`ere{ marocaine { qui m'a soutenu tout au long de la r´edactionde ce m´emoire. 3 Outline I Debt in the age of empires 15 1 Economic imperialism and Morocco in the XIXth century 15 1.1 The first globalization and the controversial thesis of an economic imperialism.. 15 1.2 Debt and imperialism................................. 17 1.3 Morocco facing Europe................................. 19 1.3.1 The forced opening of Morocco through trade treaties........... 19 1.3.2 The 1860 Spanish war compensation and the 1861 British loan...... 20 1.3.3 The trade balance deficit........................... 25 1.3.4 The impossible reform............................. 29 2 From debt to the protectorate 33 2.1 The roots of the 1904 loan............................... 33 2.1.1 In the long term: The Moroccan Sultanian State.............. 33 2.1.2 In the medium term: The worsening of the economic crisis......... 35 2.1.3 In the short term: The alliance between the Quai d'Orsay and French bankers 39 2.2 The vicious circle of indebtedness between 1904 and 1912............. 41 2.2.1 The 1904 loan................................. 41 2.2.2 The debt burden between 1902 - 1912.................... 43 2.2.3 The 1910 loan and the establishment of the protectorate.......... 50 3 The debt institutions 54 3.1 The debt management in Morocco.......................... 54 3.1.1 The difficult start of the Contr^olede la dette in 1904............ 55 3.1.2 A fa¸cade of internationalisation in 1906................... 55 3.1.3 La Dette at the height of its power between 1910 and 1912........ 57 3.2 The State Bank of Morocco.............................. 57 3.2.1 The project of a State Bank of Morocco................... 58 3.2.2 The creation of the State Bank........................ 58 3.2.3 The State Bank's low initial activity..................... 60 II Debt during the protectorate 62 4 An indebted colonial economy 62 4.1 The Moroccan foreign trade between 1913 and 1956................ 62 4.1.1 A persistent trade deficit........................... 62 4.1.2 A consequence of the internationalisation of Morocco............ 65 4.2 The debt burden during the protectorate....................... 68 4.2.1 The Moroccan balance of payment...................... 68 4.2.2 An indebted country with a balanced budget................ 70 4 4.2.3 How was debt reimbursed ?.......................... 75 4.3 Why were Moroccan loans borrowed ?........................ 75 4.3.1 Direct and indirect loans............................ 79 4.3.2 The spending distribution of direct loans.................. 80 5 Debt's long-lasting implications: the role of the Banque de Paris et des Pays- Bas in Morocco 84 5.1 A state institution: the State Bank of Morocco................... 84 5.2 The most influential financial holding in Morocco: G´enaroc............ 85 5.3 A company indirectly controlled by Paribas: Energie´ ´electrique du Maroc .... 89 6 Appendix 95 6.1 Moroccan loans between 1904 and 1956 by chronological order.......... 95 6.2 Use of the sums borrowed by Morocco between 1922 and 1932........... 97 6.3 Technical notes on the main estimates........................ 100 6.3.1 Moroccan GDP estimates........................... 100 6.3.2 Price index................................... 100 6.3.3 Debt estimates................................. 102 6.3.4 Government revenues and spending...................... 106 6.3.5 Trade data................................... 109 6.4 References........................................ 117 5 List of Figures 1 GDP per capita in France, Spain, Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia in Geary-Khamis dollars (1820-1950).................................. 12 2 Morocco's GDP and GDP per capita expressed as a share of France's GDP and GDP per capita (1820-1950)............................. 13 3 Capital in Great Britain (1700-2010)........................ 16 4 Capital in France (1700-2010)............................ 16 5 Moroccan external debt burden due to the Spanish compensation and the British loan as a share of GDP (1860-1885)......................... 24 6 Moroccan external debt burden due to the Spanish compensation and the British loan as a share of average annual export (1860-1885)................ 25 7 Foreign trade as a share of GDP between 1870 and 1895............. 26 8 Foreign trade coverage ratio of Morocco between 1870 and 1895......... 27 9 Cash coverage ratio of Morocco between 1871 and 1884.............. 28 10 Foreign trade as a share of GDP between 1895 and 1912............. 36 11 Foreign trade coverage ratio of Morocco between 1895 and 1912......... 37 12 External Debt/GDP in Morocco between 1902 and 1912............. 44 13 External Debt/State revenues in Morocco between 1902 and 1912......... 46 14 Debt servicing/State revenues in Morocco between 1903 and 1912......... 47 15 State revenues/GDP in Morocco between 1902 and 1912.............. 48 16 Debt servicing/GDP in Morocco between 1903 and 1912............
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