A Prospective Analysis of the Future of the U.S. Healthcare Industry Nicholas P
A Prospective Analysis of the Future of the U.S. Healthcare Industry Nicholas P. Vitalari, Ph.D. Senior Research Fellow, Center for Digital Transformation Center for Digital Transformation White Paper Series A Prospective Analysis of the Future of the U.S. Healthcare 1 Industry Nicholas P. Vitalari, Ph.D. Senior Research Fellow, Center for Digital Transformation, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA2 ABSTRACT This paper provides a speculative and prospective analysis of the structural changes in the U.S. Health Care industry following the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (PPACA). The paper argues that a powerful constellation of forces will generate a perfect storm of transformation that extends beyond the regulatory event of 2010. The paper begins with a review of the present state of the industry and then presents four major forces that will shape the industry. Based on the four forces, the paper plots a three-stage model that forecasts the industry’s evolution over the next 25+ years. Key findings include: 1) while the PPACA has notable qualities, it is far from perfect and must undergo substantive and systematic revision and amendment, 2) advances in digital/information technologies, the “Omics” sciences, and growth in the global middle class will generate successive structural changes among industry participants, 3) the industry will progressively witness increased industry-related transparency, information sharing, and collaboration, 4) the “Omics” sciences, in particular, will reshape industry practices through a re-conceptualization of disease typologies, diagnostic tools, and therapies, and, 5) expectations exported from other industries will prompt a heightened emphasis on the health consumer experience with system impacts on health care delivery, care provider roles, business models and industry economics.
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