"Arctic Security in the 21St Century" Conference Report

ARCTIC SECURITY IN THE 21 ARCTIC SECURITY IN ARCTIC SECURITY REPORT CONFERENCE ST CENTURY: CONFERENCE CENTURY: IMAGE COURTESY OF NASA REPORT Co-convened by The Simons Foundation and the School for International Studies, Simon Fraser University MAP COURTESY OF WWW.ATHROPOLIS.COM. ARCTIC SECURITY in the 21st CENTURY • The Arctic Environment and the Impact of Climate Change • Military Security in the Arctic • Human Security Conference Report Published by the School for International Studies Simon Fraser University Vancouver, B.C. Co-convened by The Simons Foundation and School for International Studies, Simon Fraser University under the auspices of the Simons Visiting Chair in International Law and Human Security, School for International Studies, Simon Fraser University. April 11-12th, 2008 Convenors of the Conference: Jayantha Dhanapala, Simons Visiting Chair in International Law and Human Security, School for International Studies, SFU John Harriss, Professor, and Director, School for International Studies, SFU Jennifer Simons, President, The Simons Foundation To read the free downloadable PDF version of this book, go to www.sfu.ca/internationalstudies/Arctic_Security_Conference.pdf 008 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We, as the co-convenors, want to thank the many people who contributed to the success of the conference and to this report. Ms Elaine Hynes, of The Simons Foundation, took on major responsibilities in regard to the organization of the conference with great efficiency and wonderfully good humour. We are very grateful to her, and also to Ms Paula Fairweather, who worked extremely hard alongside Professor Dhanapala, to ensure the success of the event. Ms Jan Berube and Ms Ellen Yap, of the School for International Studies, provided strong sup- port. We are grateful, too, to Costa Dedikas for the design of the beautiful poster for the conference, and for the cover of this report; and we thank Nick Boudin for his very thorough work in the editing, design, layout and setting of the report. We thank all the contributors to the conference, many of whom responded to our requests to them at very short notice, and we are extremely grateful to Ran- dy Rydell for taking time out from his duties at the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs in order to serve as the rapporteur, and for completing such a very good summary of the discussions in record time. In addition to making their own pre- sentations Professor Franklyn Griffiths, Mr Tony Penikett and Professor Mike Wallace all gave a lot of help in the organization of the conference, and for this too we are very grateful indeed. Finally, we would like to thank Dr Adele Buck- ley for her willing response to our request that she should write a brief report on the proceedings for publication in the scientific literature. Jayantha Dhanapala, John Harriss and Jennifer Simons Arctic Security Conference 008 Arctic Security Conference 008 CONTENTS OPENING SESSION Problems of Arctic Security in the 21st Century: Introduction Mr. Jayantha Dhanapala and Professor John Harriss___________________________ 1 Welcome Address Dr. Jennifer Simons________________________________________________________ 4 Keynote Address Ambassodor Sergio de Queiroz Duarte______________________________________ 6 SESSION I: THE ARCTIC ENVIRONMENT AND THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE Arctic Climate: Present and future perspective Professor Ola Johannessen_________________________________________________ 10 Consequences of Warming in the Arctic with Reference to Northern Security Dr. Robie Macdonald______________________________________________________ 20 LUNCH SPEAKER Succeeding Putin in Power Former Canadian Ambassador Chris Westdal_________________________________ 28 SESSION II: MilitarY SECURITY IN THE Arctic Nuclear Weapon Free Zone in the Arctic? A Step by Step Approach to Overcoming the Obstacle Professor Mike Wallace____________________________________________________ 33 Military Security in the Arctic Ambassador Rolf Ekéus____________________________________________________ 38 Nuclear Weapon Free Zone in the Arctic? Dr. Jozef Goldblat_________________________________________________________ 41 SESSION III: HUMAN SECURITY Political Climate Change in the Canadian Arctic Mr. Tony Penikett_________________________________________________________ 46 Arctic Security Conference 008 Arctic Security Conference 008 Arctic Sovereignty and the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement Ms. Udloriak Hanson________________________________________________________ 53 Not That Good a Fit? “Human Security” and the Arctic Dr. Franklyn Griffiths ________________________________________________________ 55 SESSION IV: National SovereigntY AND International Law An International Legal Regime for the Arctic Mr. H.P. Rajan_______________________________________________________________ 62 Territorial Claims as an Example of the Geo-Economic Shift to the North Dr. Tapani Vaahtoranta and Dr. Lotta Numminen________________________________ 69 APPENDICES Rapporteur’s Summary _____________________________________________________ I-ii Dr. Randy Rydell Concept Paper_____________________________________________________________ II-i Mr. Jayantha Dhanapala and Professor John Harriss Program __________________________________________________________________ III-1 International Herald Tribune Article ________________________________________ IV-i Mr. Jayantha Dhanapala Copyright Requirements____________________________________________________ V-i Arctic Security Conference 008 Arctic Security Conference 008 LIST OF FIGURES Arctic Climate: Present and future perspective Ola Johannessen Figure 1......................................................................................................................11 Figure 2 .....................................................................................................................12 Figure 3 .....................................................................................................................13 Figure 4 .....................................................................................................................14 Figure 5 .....................................................................................................................15 Figure 6 .....................................................................................................................16 Consequences of Warming in the Arctic with Reference to Northern Security Robie Macdonald Figure 1......................................................................................................................20 Figure 2 .....................................................................................................................21 Figure 3 .....................................................................................................................23 Figure 4 .....................................................................................................................24 Figure 5 .....................................................................................................................25 Figure 6 .....................................................................................................................26 V Arctic Security Conference 008 Arctic Security Conference 008 V SPRING MELT NEAR TIGVARIAK ISLAND - PHOTO BY HARLEY D. NYGREN V Arctic Security Conference 008 Arctic Security Conference 008 OPENING SESSION Introduction We live in an increasingly interdependent world Jayantha Dhanapala where the “butterfly effect” is now a well-known phe- Former United Nations Under-Secretary General for Disarmament nomenon. The hard evidence of climate change proves Affairs, Chairman of the UN University Council, president of the that the felling of Amazon forests in Brazil or CO2 emis- Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, visiting chair sions in China all have a cumulative global impact, at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver whether leading to the disappearance of Tuvalu into the Pacific Ocean or the sinking of the Maldives. What hap- John Harriss pens in the Arctic will consequently impact on the rest of Director, School for International Studies the world. The 17th century English Metaphysical poet Simon Fraser University John Donne’s celebrated line that “No man is an island entire of itself” is truer today than ever before! The melting of the Arctic Cap will facilitate the min- ing of resources, especially oil and gas, and will lead to In 2007, revelations about the impact of climate an increase in commercial shipping. The ownership of change on the Arctic, as well as actual events in the resources and the sovereignty of areas like the North- Arctic, led to this region becoming the focus of inter- west Passage are already being contested; the applica- national attention. Recognizing the importance of bility of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the subject to both national and global affairs, Simon the Sea has to be more sharply defined, especially in ar- Fraser University’s nascent School of International eas where there is overlap. Developing nations that are Studies decided to engage in a voyage of intellectu- going to be hit hardest by climate change, where the al exploration by examining the different aspects of “Bottom Billion” population lives in extreme poverty, Arctic security. We were fortunate in having The Si- see this potential resource exploitation in the context of mons Foundation agree to be a co-convener as we set globalization and its impact on energy

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