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Empowering Europe's Future Empowering Europe’s Future: Governance, Power and Options for the EU in a Changing World =?EL7DD?=H;L?:7D?;BA;E>7D;8;HD?9;B;;F7JH?9?7B;M?I © European Union, 2013. Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. The findings of this Trend Report are the responsibility of Chatham House and FRIDE, and do not necessarily express the opinions of the EU institutions. Chatham House and FRIDE were commissioned to produce the report ‘Empowering Europe’s Future: Governance, Power and Options for the EU in a Changing World’ by the European Commission at the request of an inter-institutional task force, with full respect for their intellectual independence. Catalogue number: NJ-30-13-616-EN-C ISBN (online): 978-84-616-7353-7 Legal deposit: M-34623-2013 Empowering Europe’s Future: Governance, Power and Options for the EU in a Changing World =?EL7DD?=H;L?:7D?;BA;E>7D;8;HD?9;B;;F7JH?9?7B;M?I EMPOWERING EUROPE’S FUTURE: GOVERNANCE, POWER AND OPTIONS FOR THE EU IN A CHANGING WORLD 1 andShiftingPower Complexity Interdependence, Summary Executive 9 Preface 7 Acknowledgements Authors About the 17 ofcontents Table 4 10 6 4 and Governance Cooperation Competition, 3 andPowers Power 59 Vulnerability and 2 Conflict 45 35 3.2 andrenewal Major powers –fragility 3.1 andpoliticsintheaugmentedworld Power capabilities 2.5 Military 2.4 andspace Cyber-security andconflict resources ofclimate, The intersection 2.3 2.2 crime andorganised Terrorism 45 49 trends 2.1 Conflict 1.3 anddisruptions threats Opportunities, 39 1.2 powerCumulative shifts 1.1 andshifting powers ofinterdependence The newage 42 41 37 17 24 35 23 4.4 governance insecurity challenges Emerging 4.3 theglobalcommons Managing 4.2 A newnormativedivergence? competition 4.1 Geopolitical 64 63 62 59 EMPOWERING EUROPE’S FUTURE: GOVERNANCE, POWER AND OPTIONS FOR THE EU IN A CHANGING WORLD 5 The Middle East and North Africa Africa The Middle East and North and the Sahel Africa West the EU (Southern neighbourhood) Implications and options for Eastern Europe Asia Central the EU (Eastern neighbourhood) Implication and options for 94 86 101 93 97 100 Annex 5 – Bibliography Annex 5 – Bibliography 125 Annex 4 – Glossary and Acronyms Acronyms Glossary and Annex 4 – 119 Annex 3 – Timeline of Activities Activities of Timeline Annex 3 – 118 Annex 2 – ESPAS Survey of Expert Opinion Survey of Expert Annex 2 – ESPAS 103 5.5 innovation Becoming a science and technology powerhouse and fostering 82 5.4 security conflict and supportingPreventing cooperative Neighbourhood The Strategic Annex 1 – 79 85 5.3 resources clean and sustainable energy Securing 77 5.2 work Making global markets 74 5.1 approach The super-partner 72 4.6 of international cooperation The future 67 4.5 of regionalism? A revival 65 ANNEXES 85 5 2014–19 Union, the European Options for Implications and 71 EMPOWERING EUROPE’S FUTURE: GOVERNANCE, POWER AND OPTIONS FOR THE EU IN A CHANGING WORLD Bernice Lee Daniel Keohane Grevi Giovanni Authors About the 6 Lewis Patricia is Research Director, Energy, Environment and Resources at Chatham House. at andResources Environment Energy, Director, isResearch is Research Director, International Security at Chatham House. at InternationalSecurity Director, isResearch is Director ofFRIDE. isDirector is Head of Strategic Affairs atFRIDE. Affairs isHeadofStrategic EMPOWERING EUROPE’S FUTURE: GOVERNANCE, POWER AND OPTIONS FOR THE EU IN A CHANGING WORLD 7 Tomlinson, Diarmuid Torney, Matthew Wright, Nastasja Vojvodic, and Claire Yorke. Claire and Vojvodic, Nastasja Wright, Matthew Torney, Diarmuid Tomlinson, Skye McLeod, Robin Niblett, James Nixey, Felix Preston, Thomas Raines, Paul Stevens, Shane Shane Stevens, Paul Thomas Raines, Preston, Felix Nixey, James Niblett, Robin McLeod, Skye Kooroshy, Michael Keating, Jonathan Knight, Glada Lahn, Margaret May, Paige McClanahan, McClanahan, Paige May, Margaret Glada Lahn, Knight, Jonathan Michael Keating, Kooroshy, Emmerson, Antony Froggatt, Benoit Gomis, Richard Gowing, Gemma Green, Jens Hein, Jaakko Jaakko Hein, Jens Green, Gemma Gowing, Richard Gomis, Benoit Froggatt, Antony Emmerson, Rose Abdollahzadeh, Rob Bailey, Florence Boafo, Dave Clemente, Xenia Dormandy, Charles Charles Dormandy, Xenia Clemente, Dave Boafo, Florence Bailey, Rob Abdollahzadeh, Rose Chatham House: From Torres, Maria Victoria Rincón, and Richard Youngs (former FRIDE director). (former Youngs and Richard Rincón, Victoria Maria Torres, Gauri Khandekar, Ana Martiningui, Barah Mikail, Magdalena Segre, Eleonora Tafuro, Maria Paula Paula Maria Tafuro, Eleonora Magdalena Segre, Mikail, Barah Ana Martiningui, Khandekar, Gauri Alejandro Barón, Jos Boonstra, Clare Castillejo, Ana Echague, Susanne Gratius, Kristina Kausch, Kausch, Kristina Gratius, Susanne Ana Echague, Castillejo, Clare Boonstra, Jos Barón, Alejandro From FRIDE: From project and this report in particular:project We would like to thank the following colleagues for their invaluable contribution to the ESPAS to the ESPAS contribution their invaluable colleagues for to thank the following would like We Acknowledgements 9 Preface This Trend Report completes the FRIDE-Chatham House project on “Empowering Europe’s Future: Governance, Power and Options for the EU in a Changing World” carried out under strand 3 – Governance and Power – of the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS). The Report builds on an extensive literature review, accompanied by a broad set of activities aimed at engaging a wide range of expertise and regularly testing the findings of desk research. These activities included four mutually reinforcing components (see also the Timeline of Activities in Annex 3). First, five seminars were held in Brussels between February and September 2013, involving a variety of experts from Europe and beyond. Three seminars addressed major cross-cutting EMPOWERING issues central to the research carried out for this project, namely “Sources of Power”, “The Changing Nature of Security” and “Features of 21st Century Governance”. The Interim Seminar in April and the Final Seminar in September provided the opportunity to discuss and enrich the EUROPE findings of successive draft versions of the Report. The participation of the members of ESPAS ’ S Working Group 3 and of the ESPAS Task Force in these seminars, together with three other FUTURE meetings with the Working Group, has greatly benefited the project. : GOVERNANCE Second, a survey of international expert opinion was carried out to explore and compile the perspectives of a group of academics, analysts and practitioners from a range of fields on , issues relevant to the research work. The insights drawn from this exercise have informed and POWER complemented the findings of desk research and the debates in seminars and workshops. AND OPTIONS Third, the quality of the report has been tested by the members of the Review Panel who have provided very valuable intellectual input and feedback on the Interim Report in June and FOR on the Draft Trends Report in early September. The members of the Review Panel were Cho THE Khong (Shell), Ivan Krastev (Centre for Liberal Strategies), Anne-Marie Slaughter (New America EU Foundation and Princeton University) and Constanze Stelzenmueller (The German Marshall IN A Fund of the United States). CHANGING Fourth, three workshops were organised in June and July 2013, in Berlin (in cooperation with WORLD the Berlin Office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States), London and Paris (in cooperation with the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique) to reach out to a broader community of expertise including experts and practitioners in EU national capitals. 10 WORLD CHANGING Executive Summary A IN EU THE Beea_d] je (&)&" ]beXWb Y^Wd][ m_bb X[ eYYkhh_d] Wj Wd WYY[b[hWj[Z fWY[ WdZ _d Wd FOR kdfh[Z_YjWXb[\Wi^_ed$The world in 2030 will be a more fragile place due to the rise of economic interdependence, the diffusion of power, and the disruptive potential of technological innovation OPTIONS and extreme events. Ten years ago, for example, the SARS outbreak cost businesses $60 billion – AND and caused the loss of about 2% of East Asian GDP. Vulnerability to unexpected events – such as the 2010 Icelandic ash-cloud or the 2011 Japanese tsunami – will only increase as global supply POWER , chains expose states and societies to the effects of political crises and disruptions, even in distant regions. Weak or rigid governance systems will increasingly struggle to respond to these trends. GOVERNANCE : ?d j^_i b[ii fh[Z_YjWXb[ mehbZ" fem[h i^_\ji m_bb dej X[ b_d[Wh, not least due to the proliferation of domestic challenges in emerging economies. Whether they are in relative rise or FUTURE S ’ decline, the risk may be that many governments become more introverted and less inclined to international engagement and compromise, as they cope with increasing turbulence at home. EUROPE Conversely, a faster-changing world will offer wide-ranging options and new opportunities to more actors – both state and non-state – who are flexible and quick enough to seize them. Cities may lead efforts to reduce carbon emissions; smaller states, like Sweden, Singapore EMPOWERING or Qatar, may shape international agendas and regional affairs through the use of technical leadership or coalition-building. Power shifts will not necessarily be a zero-sum game; the gains of some need not entail losses for others. =el[hdc[dji"h[]_edWbeh]Wd_iWj_ediWdZ_dj[hdWj_edWb_dij_jkj_edim_bbijhk]]b[jeYef[ m_j^ j^[ jm_d jh[dZi e\ _dYh[Wi[Z _dj[hZ[f[dZ[dY[ WdZ ]h[Wj[h \hW]c[djWj_ed$ With a larger range
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