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A WAY FORWARD with IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy
A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 Cover photo: Associated Press Photo/Photographer: Mohammad Berno 2 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY CONTENTS List of Abbreviations 4 List of Figures 5 Key Findings 6 How Did We Reach This Point? 7 Roots of the U.S.-Iran Relationship 9 The Results of the Maximum Pressure Policy 13 Any Change in Iranian Behavior? 21 Biden Administration Policy and Implementation Options 31 Conclusion 48 Contributors 49 About The Soufan Center 51 3 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS BPD Barrels Per Day FTO Foreign Terrorist Organization GCC Gulf Cooperation Council IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile IMF International Monetary Fund IMSC International Maritime Security Construct INARA Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act INSTEX Instrument for Supporting Trade Exchanges IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC-QF Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - Qods Force JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action MBD Million Barrels Per Day PMF Popular Mobilization Forces SRE Significant Reduction Exception 4 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Iran Annual GDP Growth and Change in Crude Oil Exports 18 Figure 2: Economic Effects of Maximum Pressure 19 Figure 3: Armed Factions Supported by Iran 25 Figure 4: Comparison of Iran Nuclear Program with JCPOA Limitations 28 5 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. -
The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi: Decision-Making and Factionalism in Iran’S Revolutionary Guard
The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi: Decision-Making and Factionalism in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard SAEID GOLKAR AUGUST 2021 KASRA AARABI Contents Executive Summary 4 The Raisi Administration, the IRGC and the Creation of a New Islamic Government 6 The IRGC as the Foundation of Raisi’s Islamic Government The Clergy and the Guard: An Inseparable Bond 16 No Coup in Sight Upholding Clerical Superiority and Preserving Religious Legitimacy The Importance of Understanding the Guard 21 Shortcomings of Existing Approaches to the IRGC A New Model for Understanding the IRGC’s Intra-elite Factionalism 25 The Economic Vertex The Political Vertex The Security-Intelligence Vertex Charting IRGC Commanders’ Positions on the New Model Shades of Islamism: The Ideological Spectrum in the IRGC Conclusion 32 About the Authors 33 Saeid Golkar Kasra Aarabi Endnotes 34 4 The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi Executive Summary “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] has excelled in every field it has entered both internationally and domestically, including security, defence, service provision and construction,” declared Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi, then chief justice of Iran, in a speech to IRGC commanders on 17 March 2021.1 Four months on, Raisi, who assumes Iran’s presidency on 5 August after the country’s June 2021 election, has set his eyes on further empowering the IRGC with key ministerial and bureaucratic positions likely to be awarded to guardsmen under his new government. There is a clear reason for this ambition. Expanding the power of the IRGC serves the interests of both Raisi and his 82-year-old mentor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic. -
Country Report Iran March 2017
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Country Report Iran Generated on November 13th 2017 Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square London E14 4QW United Kingdom _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For 60 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square The Economist Group London 750 Third Avenue E14 4QW 5th Floor United Kingdom New York, NY 10017, US Tel: +44 (0) 20 7576 8181 Tel: +1 212 541 0500 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7576 8476 Fax: +1 212 586 0248 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Hong Kong Geneva The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 1301 Cityplaza Four Rue de l’Athénée 32 12 Taikoo Wan Road 1206 Geneva Taikoo Shing Switzerland Hong Kong Tel: +852 2585 3888 Tel: +41 22 566 24 70 Fax: +852 2802 7638 Fax: +41 22 346 93 47 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] This report can be accessed electronically as soon as it is published by visiting store.eiu.com or by contacting a local sales representative. -
Iran Case File (April 2021)
IRAN CASE FILE April 2021 RASANAH International Institute for Iranian Studies, Al-Takhassusi St. Sahafah, Riyadh Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. P.O. Box: 12275 | Zip code: 11473 Contact us [email protected] +966112166696 Executive Summary .....................................................................................4 Internal Affairs ........................................................................................... 7 The Ideological File .............................................................................................8 1. Women and the “Political Man” ............................................................................... 8 2. Khatami and the Position of Women ......................................................................10 The Political File ............................................................................................... 12 1. The Most Notable Highlights of the Leaked Interview .............................................12 2. Consequences and Reactions .................................................................................13 3. The Position of the Iranian President and Foreign Ministry on the Interview ..........14 4. The Implications of Leaking the Interview at This Time..........................................15 The Economic File ............................................................................................. 16 1. Bitcoin’s Genesis Globally and the Start of Its Use in Iran ........................................16 2. The Importance of Bitcoin for Iran -
Nowruz Action 2020
Nowruz Action کارزار نوروز new day”) is an ancient holiday celebrated on the first day of“) نوروز The Iranian holiday Nowruz spring in the northern hemisphere to welcome in the new year. On this Nowruz we want to remember several courageous prisoners of conscience and prisoners held for politically motivated reasons in Iran with Nowruz greetings. We ask you to send cards with simple Nowruz greetings You can say “thinking of you at Nowruz time” or نوروز مبارک ”such as “Nowruz mobarak “hoping you are well.” You may send a greeting in either English or Farsi (Persian) but please do not mention Amnesty International or specifics of the recipient’s case. Please also refrain from mentioning the political situation, human rights or U.S.-Iran relations. We suggest sending cards with pictures of landscapes, spring flowers or the like, in keeping with the spirit of the holiday and the message of hope and renewal. Please do not choose cards that have pictures of people, and please do not use cards that depict bottles of wine or other alcoholic beverages or gambling. Traditional Nowruz celebrations include the preparation of a Haft Sin table which literally means the seven s’s. Seven items beginning with the Persian letter Sin (equivalent to the English s) and which represent spring time are set out. To honor this tradition, this year Amnesty International has selected seven cases, prisoners of conscience and prisoners held for politically motivated reasons, who have been identified by Amnesty International as “individuals at risk” and are therefore targeted for intensified campaigning. -
República Islámica De Irán
OFICINA DE INFORMACIÓN DIPLOMÁTICA FICHA PAÍS Irán República Islámica de Irán La Oficina de Información Diplomática del Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores y de Cooperación pone a disposición de los profesionales de los medios de comunicación y del público en general la presente ficha país. La información contenida en esta ficha país es pública y se ha extraído de diversos medios no oficiales. La presente ficha país no defiende posición política alguna ni de este Ministerio ni del Gobierno de España respecto del país sobre el que versa. FEBRERO 2018 Constitución. Además, en torno a un 25 % de la población tiene una variedad Irán del turco como lengua materna y se hablan otros idiomas minoritarios, como el kurdo. Moneda: Rial iraní (cambio a 4 de febrero de 2018: 1€ = 46.086 riales) Religión: El Islam está consagrado en la Constitución hoy vigente como religión oficial. La mayoría musulmana iraní (un 96% de la población total) es chiíta (en Mar Caspio torno al 89% de los musulmanes). Hay una minoría musulmana que pertenece TURQUÍA Tabriz a la creencia autóctona conocida como bahaísmo. Existe una importante mino- TURKMENISTÁN ría cristiana de origen armenio, junto a asirio-caldeos; también hay un pequeño Mashhad grupo de judíos y de seguidores del Zoroastrismo. Teherán Forma de Estado: El artículo 1 de la Constitución de 1979 define a Irán como una República Islámica. El sistema se basa en la distinción entre un Ejecutivo encabezado por el Presidente de la República y compuesto por los distintos mi- Isfahán AFGANISTÁN nisterios, que gestiona la administración del país, y un Legislativo o Majlis, que de manera efectiva aprueba las leyes y vota a los candidatos a ministro propues- IRAK Ahvaz tos por el Presidente. -
Rouhani's Protest Paradox | the Washington Institute
MENU Policy Analysis / PolicyWatch 2911 Rouhani's Protest Paradox by Omer Carmi Jan 8, 2018 Also available in Arabic ABOUT THE AUTHORS Omer Carmi Omer Carmi was a 2017 military fellow at The Washington Institute. Brief Analysis If the protests intensify, President Rouhani may be hard pressed to unravel his greatest dilemma: how to honor his economic and reform promises while preserving his decades-long commitment to the regime's core principles. uring his 2017 reelection campaign, Hassan Rouhani portrayed himself as Iran's best hope for economic D recovery, sporting slogans such as "Freedom, Security, Peace, and Progress" while promising to promote "justice and reforms." Rouhani even attacked the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), claiming that improvements could only be achieved if "groups with security and political backing" refrained from interfering in the economy. Yet President Rouhani's actions since then suggest that he is not keeping his campaign promises. Over the past few months, he has softened his tone on the IRGC, failed to appoint female ministers to his cabinet, and selected controversial figure Mansour Gholami, a former university president who has relations with the conservative camp, as minister of science—a post highly valued by reformists because it supervises the country's universities. As a result, Rouhani has suffered harsh criticism from prominent reformist figures for "shifting to the right" of the political map. The current demonstrations therefore represent an acute challenge for Rouhani. Some of the protestors have chanted slogans directly against him, even calling for his death. More generally, they have centered their demonstrations around corruption and poverty—two issues that Rouhani promised to alleviate during his campaign. -
PROTESTS and REGIME SUPPRESSION in POST-REVOLUTIONARY IRAN Saeid Golkar
THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY n OCTOBER 2020 n PN85 PROTESTS AND REGIME SUPPRESSION IN POST-REVOLUTIONARY IRAN Saeid Golkar Green Movement members tangle with Basij and police forces, 2009. he nationwide protests that engulfed Iran in late 2019 were ostensibly a response to a 50 percent gasoline price hike enacted by the administration of President Hassan Rouhani.1 But in little time, complaints Textended to a broader critique of the leadership. Moreover, beyond the specific reasons for the protests, they appeared to reveal a deeper reality about Iran, both before and since the 1979 emergence of the Islamic Republic: its character as an inherently “revolutionary country” and a “movement society.”2 Since its formation, the Islamic Republic has seen multiple cycles of protest and revolt, ranging from ethnic movements in the early 1980s to urban riots in the early 1990s, student unrest spanning 1999–2003, the Green Movement response to the 2009 election, and upheaval in December 2017–January 2018. The last of these instances, like the current round, began with a focus on economic dissatisfaction and then spread to broader issues. All these movements were put down by the regime with characteristic brutality. © 2020 THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. SAEID GOLKAR In tracking and comparing protest dynamics and market deregulation, currency devaluation, and the regime responses since 1979, this study reveals that cutting of subsidies. These policies, however, spurred unrest has become more significant in scale, as well massive inflation, greater inequality, and a spate of as more secularized and violent. -
En En Motion for a Resolution
European Parliament 2014-2019 Plenary sitting B8-0191/2019 12.3.2019 MOTION FOR A RESOLUTION with request for inclusion in the agenda for a debate on cases of breaches of human rights, democracy and the rule of law pursuant to Rule 135 of the Rules of Procedure on Iran, notably the case of human rights defenders (2019/2611(RSP)) Elena Valenciano, Victor Boştinaru, Soraya Post, Knut Fleckenstein on behalf of the S&D Group RE\P8_B(2019)0191_EN.docx PE635.451v01-00 EN United in diversityEN B8-0191/2019 European Parliament resolution on Iran, notably the case of human rights defenders (2019/2611(RSP)) The European Parliament, having regard to its previous resolutions on Iran, notably on the case of Nasrin Sotoudeh of December 2018. on the imprisoned EU-Iranian dual nationals in Iran of May 2018, on the EU strategy towards Iran of April 2014 and on death penalty of October 2015 and to its report on the EU strategy towards Iran after the nuclear agreement of 24 October 2016; having regard to the EU Guidelines on the Death Penalty, on Torture and on Freedom of Expression; having regard to the EU Guidelines on Human Rights Defenders; having regard to the Report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran from September 2018; having regard to the Statement by UN human rights experts “Iran must protect women´s rights advocates”, of 29 November 2018 having regard to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights; having regard to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights; having regard to Rule 135 of its Rules of Procedure. -
Iran Report 5 Budget Final Review
A Budget for Challenging Times To what extent will the government’s 2019-20 Budget shield Iranians from economic turmoil? ECONOMIC RISK SERIES NO.3 | MAY 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Predicting Iran’s revenues for the financial year 2019- 20 (which ends in March 2020) is nearly impossible as the full impact of US sanctions is not yet known. What is certain, however, is that the state will be met with a sizeable budget deficit, ranging from 20% to 45% depending on scenarios. • Iran’s 2019-20 (Persian Year 1398) budget aims to protect the population from the worst effects of the economic crisis, which will involve postponing long- term structural reforms and depleting foreign exchange reserves. The state’s fear of public protest has pushed it to become the world-leading subsidiser of fossil fuels, thus wasting $45bn per year. • The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and religious foundations have seen their budgets increase in the context of the “Resistance Economy”, much to the discontent of Iranians. • Recent floods will cost as much as $2.5bn, a significant burden for the government to bear. Who are we? Castlereagh Associates is a research and analysis company, providing clients with key insights to support their decision-making and enable them to build more competitive and resilient businesses on national, regional and global levels. Copyright © 2019 Castlereagh Associates- All Rights Reserved. Credits: Copyright © Shutterstock IRANIAN PARLIAMENT A BUDGET FOR CHALLENGING TIMES: A Widening Budget Deficit: $76bn $61bn $50bn Planned Revenues Planned Revenues Planned Revenues $72bn $72bn $72bn Planned Spending Planned Spending Planned Spending Source: The draft budget 2019- Source: Donya-e-Eqtesad, Our Worst-Case Scenario 20, presented by Donya-e- March 2019, Page.194 Eqtesad Masood Nili 3 3 ECONOMIC RISK SERIES NO.3 | MAY 2019 Iranian parliamentarians always aim for a zero-deficit budget. -
Iran 2019 Human Rights Report
IRAN 2019 HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Islamic Republic of Iran is an authoritarian theocratic republic with a Shia Islamic political system based on velayat-e faqih (guardianship of the jurist). Shia clergy, most notably the rahbar (supreme leader), and political leaders vetted by the clergy dominate key power structures. The supreme leader is the head of state. The members of the Assembly of Experts are nominally directly elected in popular elections. The assembly selects and may dismiss the supreme leader. The candidates for the Assembly of Experts, however, are vetted by the Guardian Council (see below) and are therefore selected indirectly by the supreme leader himself. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has held the position since 1989. He has direct or indirect control over the legislative and executive branches of government through unelected councils under his authority. The supreme leader holds constitutional authority over the judiciary, government-run media, and other key institutions. While mechanisms for popular election exist for the president, who is head of government, and for the Islamic Consultative Assembly (parliament or majles), the unelected Guardian Council vets candidates, routinely disqualifying them based on political or other considerations, and controls the election process. The supreme leader appoints half of the 12-member Guardian Council, while the head of the judiciary (who is appointed by the supreme leader) appoints the other half. Parliamentary elections held in 2016 and presidential elections held in 2017 were not considered free and fair. The supreme leader holds ultimate authority over all security agencies. Several agencies share responsibility for law enforcement and maintaining order, including the Ministry of Intelligence and Security and law enforcement forces under the Interior Ministry, which report to the president, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which reports directly to the supreme leader. -
Download Report
Iranian Internet Infrastructure and Policy Report April 2014 smallmedia.org.uk This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License INTRODUCTION // Despite the election of the moderate Hassan Rouhani to the presidency last year, Iran’s systematic filtering of online content and mobile phone apps continues at full-pace. In this month’s edition of the Iranian Internet Infrastructure and Policy Report, Small Media takes a closer look at one of the bodies most deeply-enmeshed with the process of overseeing and directing filtering policies - the ‘Commission to Determine the Instances of Criminal Content’ (or CDICC). This month’s report also tracks all the usual news about Iran’s filtering system, national Internet policy, and infrastructure development projects. As well as tracking high-profile splits in the estab- lishment over the filtering of the chat app WhatsApp, this month’s report also finds evidence that the government has begun to deploy the National Information Network (SHOMA), or ‘National Internet’, with millions of Iranians using it to access the government’s new online platform for managing social welfare and support. 2 THE COMMISSION TO DETERMINE THE INSTANCES OF CRIMINAL CONTENT (CDICC) THE COMMISSION TO DETERMINE THE INSTANCES OF CRIMINAL CONTENT (CDICC) overview The Commission to Determine the Instances of Criminal Content (CDICC) is the body tasked with monitoring cyberspace, and filtering criminal Internet content. It was established as a consequence of Iran’s Cyber Crime Law (CCL), which was passed by Iran’s Parliament in May 2009. According to Article 22 of the CCL, Iran’s Judiciary System was given the mandate of establishing CDICC under the authority of Iran’s Prosecutor’s Office.