Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List March 15, 2020
For more information, contact: Thomas M. Parris, President, 802-864-2999, [email protected]
Table of Contents Introduction ...... 2 Worldwide Water Watch List ...... 4 Watch List: Regional Synopsis ...... 4 Watch List: Regional Details ...... 6 United States ...... 6 Canada ...... 9 Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean ...... 12 South America ...... 14 Europe ...... 17 Africa ...... 19 Middle East ...... 22 Central Asia and Russia ...... 24 South Asia ...... 26 Southeast Asia and the Pacific ...... 29 East Asia ...... 31 Australia & New Zealand...... 33
Introduction The ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) monitors and forecasts water anomalies on a global basis. Each month we produce data and a report that document current conditions and provide forecasts with lead times from 1-9 months. WSIM has been run continuously since April 2011 and has been validated against subsequently observed data.
ISciences also provides assessments of the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data and reports are available for purchase. Additional information and pricing are available upon request.
We have recently completed the latest Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) analysis of global water anomalies using observed temperature and precipitation through February 2020 and an ensemble of forecasts issued the last week of February 2020. This edition of Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies in the next few months. This report uses results from WSIM Version 2. In Version 2, WSIM has been re-engineered to be more computationally efficient and uses revised methodology for calculating composite water anomalies. Our blog post "Introducing WSIMv2" explains these and other improvements. In addition, WSIM is now available as an open source product. Visit https://wsim.isciences.com for details.
Starting with the March 2020 report, we are using equal-area map projections suitable for each region of interest instead of the geographic projections depicted in earlier reporting. We switched to equal- area projections to avoid area distortion at high/low latitudes.
All maps have half-degree resolution and depict our composite water anomaly index, which is based on WSIM estimates of soil moisture, evapotranspiration deficit, runoff, and total blue water anomalies. Shades of red indicate deficits and shades of blue indicate surpluses. Since different variables are used to estimate deficits and surpluses, it is possible for a single half-degree cell to register both a deficit and a surplus in a given month. These cases are depicted on the maps in shades of purple, with the more extreme value (deficit or surplus) used to determine the shade.
Deficits and surpluses are stated in terms of return period – a measure that characterizes the rarity of an anomaly. For example, a return period of 10 years indicates an anomaly that would occur, on average, once every ten years. Higher return periods indicate more extreme and, therefore, more disruptive anomalies. Anomaly levels correspond to return periods: abnormal=3-5 years, moderate=5-10 years, severe=10-20 years, extreme=20-40 years, and exceptional=greater than 40 years. Return period is computed by comparison to cell-specific distributions of data from 1950 through 2009.
Please note that the WSIM model makes use of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts produced by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). These forecasts predict broad temperature and precipitation patterns, but do not effectively predict singular events such as tropical storms. Detailed outlooks and analyses of tropical storms are available from the NOAA National Hurricane Center.
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There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.
Copyright 2020 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C.
The user assumes the entire risk related to user’s use of information in ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast: Watch List, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.
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Worldwide Water Watch List This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one- year period beginning in December 2019 and running through November 2020 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.
Watch List: Regional Synopsis This synopsis provides highlights of regional water forecasts. More detailed analysis is available in “Watch List: Regional Details” immediately following the synopsis.
United States: The forecast through May indicates widespread water surpluses in the Northern Plains States and Upper Midwest, severe-to-exceptional in the Dakotas and Nebraska. Moderate surpluses are expected in Tennessee, the Carolinas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Areas of deficit include central Colorado, southeastern Texas, and northern California.
Canada: The forecast through May indicates surpluses from Ottawa to Montreal, and near Toronto and Calgary; and deficits around Winnipeg and Regina. Deficits will shrink in northern Quebec, but vast pockets of exceptional deficit will persist. Surpluses will increase in southern British Columbia.
Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through May indicates intense water surpluses in Sonora, Mexico, and surpluses of varying intensity in many regions of Central America. Deficits will increase in Chihuahua and Coahuila in northern Mexico and in the eastern Yucatan.
South America: The forecast through May indicates that water deficits will shrink considerably, but intense anomalies are forecast in French Guiana, Suriname, southern Venezuela, northern Amazonas, and Mato Grosso do Sul. Surpluses will emerge in Minas Gerais and Pernambuco, Brazil.
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Europe: The forecast through May indicates that water surpluses will shrink in Europe though remain widespread in the U.K., Ireland, and northern European Russia, and will be intense in Ireland and Russia. Intense deficits are forecast for Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, western Ukraine, and eastern Bulgaria.
Africa: The forecast through May indicates water deficits of varying intensity across northern Africa while deficits in the Horn retreat. Surpluses are forecast for nations north of the Gulf of Guinea, pockets across the Sahel, and many regions of East Africa, particularly Tanzania and Kenya.
Middle East: The forecast through May indicates that widespread water surpluses will shrink, but surpluses will persist in Syria, near Mosul, and in Iran’s west, Caspian Sea Coast, and south. Deficits will downgrade on the Arabian Peninsula but will remain intense from eastern Yemen into Oman.
Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through May indicates widespread moderate-to-exceptional water surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain into the Western Siberian Plain. Exceptional deficits are forecast for the Central Siberian Plateau, north and southeast of Lake Baikal, and in western Kazakhstan along the Caspian coast.
South Asia: Widespread water surpluses are forecast to persist through May in India, Bangladesh, Nepal, northern Pakistan and along rivers, and eastern Afghanistan. Anomalies will be exceptional in several regions including along the Ganges, from Mumbai into Karnataka, and central Madhya Pradesh.
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through May indicates that water deficits in Thailand and Cambodia will downgrade, though intense anomalies are forecast near Tonlé Sap. Exceptional deficits will emerge in southern Myanmar along the Irrawaddy River.
East Asia: The forecast through May indicates widespread water surpluses in the Yellow River Basin, the Upper Yangtze Basin, Tibet, and Northeast China. Intense deficits are forecast for southern Yunnan, Mongolia, and northern Honshu, Japan.
Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through May indicates that water deficits will nearly disappear, persisting along Victoria’s central coast, in Tasmania, and in northern New Zealand. Surpluses will emerge in the Kimberley and re-emerge in pockets along Australia’s southeastern coast.
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Watch List: Regional Details
United States The 12-month forecast ending November indicates moderate to extreme water surpluses in the Dakotas, particularly widespread in South Dakota, with some areas reaching exceptional intensity. Surpluses will extend well into Nebraska and are also forecast in southern Montana and several areas of Wyoming.
Some moderate surpluses are expected in a few pockets of southern Minnesota and eastern Wisconsin and will form a path down the center of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula.
Nearly normal water conditions are forecast for much of the northern Ohio River Basin, but surpluses of varying intensity are predicted in the Basin’s southern region, extending further south through Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and into the Carolinas. Anomalies are expected to be extreme to exceptional in west-central Georgia, northern Alabama, and central Mississippi. Moderate surpluses are forecast for southern Missouri, northeastern Oklahoma, and pockets of Kansas and Arkansas.
Southern Texas can expect deficits, primarily moderate but more intense in a few pockets including severe anomalies around Houston. Deficits are forecast for southern Florida as well and will be intense south of Lake Okeechobee. Nearly normal conditions are expected in the U.S. Northeast and Mid- Atlantic with some small pockets of deficit including in southern Delaware.
In the West, deficits of varying intensity are forecast for much of California north of Los Angeles. Deficits will be generally severe in the south and moderate in the north, reaching into Nevada. In Nevada’s northeastern corner surpluses are forecast. Intense deficits are expected in southwestern Colorado, some pockets of moderate deficit in Utah and New Mexico, and surpluses in southeastern Arizona.
The Pacific Northwest can expect scattered deficits which will be intense in north-central Oregon and the Columbia River region in central Washington. Some surpluses are also in the forecast east and north of Seattle. Intense deficits are forecast for Idaho’s Salmon River Mountains.
Outside the contiguous U.S., surpluses are forecast for much of Hawaii and mild deficits in Puerto Rico. In Alaska, surpluses are forecast in the Koyukuk and Kobuk River regions in the north, in a wide path from the base of the Alaska Peninsula into the center of the state, and on the southwest coast near Bethel. Some deficits are expected from Anchorage leading east.
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.
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From March through May, moderate-to-exceptional surpluses will persist in the Dakotas and Nebraska, while moderate surpluses extend westward into Wyoming and Southern Montana, and eastward into Wisconsin. Surpluses likewise persist in the American South extending westward into eastern Kansas and Oklahoma, though these will be more moderate anomalies than were observed this winter (December through February). Small pockets of intense surpluses persist into the spring season for southeastern Arizona and Some parts of northern New Mexico.
Moderate to severe deficits observed in eastern Texas in December through February will retreat to normal to moderate-deficit condition in March through May, as will deficits in the Florida Peninsula. California will experience statewide deficits of abnormal to extreme severity. Deficits extend northward into Oregon and Washington, though intense winter deficits along the Cascade Range observed in December through February ease in severity over the March-through-May period. Deficits observed in northern Virginia in December through February will retreat to near-normal conditions, transitioning to abnormal surpluses in the south. Normal to moderate-deficit conditions are forecast for southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic, while Upstate New York and parts of Vermont and New Hampshire will experience moderate surpluses.
From June through August, anomalies east of the Mississippi will retreat to near-normal conditions. Surpluses in the Midwest retreat to near-normal conditions east of South Dakota but persist in the Dakotas and northern Nebraska with abnormal to exceptional severity. Surpluses will shrink in Montana and Wyoming, and transition to abnormal-to-moderate deficits in Idaho, Nevada, and Utah. Colorado’s areas of deficit will normalize. Deficit severity will ease in California, the Pacific Northwest, and Idaho.
The forecast for the final months – September through November – indicates widespread surpluses in South Dakota leading into North Dakota and Nebraska, and scattered pockets of surplus in Montana and
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Wyoming. Generally moderate deficits are forecast in isolated pockets of the Mid-Atlantic States, the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, and California and the Southwest.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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Canada The 12-month outlook for Canada through November indicates a forecast of deficits for much of Quebec north of the Gouin Reservoir in the Mauricie region of the province including vast areas of exceptional deficit.
Elsewhere in the nation, exceptional deficits are forecast for western Labrador, a column along Ontario’s northeastern border, the southwest corner of Hudson Bay, a belt across central Manitoba north of Lake Winnipeg reaching into Ontario, central Alberta west of Edmonton and also the province’s northwest corner, and in British Columbia at the bend of the Fraser River east of Prince George.
A large block of extreme to exceptional surplus is forecast surrounding Churchill Lake in northern Saskatchewan leading north well past Lake Athabasca and west to Fort McMurray, Alberta. Moderate to extreme surpluses are expected around Fort St. John in northern British Columbia, and intense surpluses in the southern Columbia Mountains.
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.
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The forecast through May for Canada’s most populated areas indicates nearly normal water conditions for Québec City, Saskatoon, Edmonton, and Vancouver; surpluses from Ottawa to Montreal, and near Toronto and Calgary; and deficits around Winnipeg and Regina.
Deficits will shrink in norther Quebec (QC) though vast pockets will persist. Surpluses will emerge in southern QC between Ottawa and Montreal, in the east at the mouth of the St. Lawrence River, and in the far north. Intense deficits are forecast in a wide path along Ontario’s (ON) northeastern border; moderate to extreme deficits in pockets of Southern Ontario with surpluses near Toronto; and severe to exceptional deficits in the province’s northwest quadrant. Surpluses are forecast along ON’s Hudson Bay coast and in a band north of the Albany River to James Bay.
In the Prairie Provinces, exceptional deficits are forecast in a wide band north of Lake Winnipeg, Manitoba (MB) and in the northeast along Hudson Bay; a small pocket of extreme deficit is expected around Winnipeg. In Saskatchewan (SK), moderate to extreme deficits are expected around Regina, exceptional deficits in the Upper Assiniboine River region, and deficits of varying intensity in the North Saskatchewan River region. Intense surpluses will persist in a vast block of northwestern SK reaching across the border past Fort McMurray, Alberta (AB).
Exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern AB and severe to exceptional deficits in the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed in the center of the province. Surpluses will increase along the South Saskatchewan River and in a vast path on AB’s western border from the Peace River in the north to the U.S.
Surpluses in the Peace River region will reach across into British Columbia (BC) past Fort St. John and Williston Lake. Elsewhere in BC, surpluses will increase in the south, exceptional in the southern Columbia Mountains and moderate to severe in the southeastern region of the Coast Mountains. Deficits in central BC at the intersection of the Nechako and Fraser Rivers will remain intense though the extent of exceptional anomalies will shrink. A small pocket of extreme deficit will persist around Prince Rupert on the coast and intense deficits will persist along BC’s border with Yukon.
From June through August, exceptional deficits will shrink slightly in QC north of the Gouin Reservoir, but deficits of varying intensity will increase, covering much of the region. Deficits will persist in aforementioned areas of ON and will emerge north of Lake Superior. Surpluses will retreat north of the Albany River but persist along the province’s Hudson Bay coast. Anomalies in the northern halves of the Prairie Provinces will remain much the same as in the prior three-month forecast, but deficits will retreat from southern SK and surpluses will diminish in southern AB and along its western border. In BC, surpluses in the north around Williston Lake will disappear, deficits will shrink and downgrade, as will surpluses in the south.
The forecast for the final three months – August through October – indicates that deficits will shrink, particularly in QC, but remain exceptional and widespread in Manitoba. Surpluses will shrink in BC and AB but remain widespread in northwestern SK.
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(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean The 12-month forecast ending November indicates deficits ranging from moderate to extreme in Mexico’s north-central and northeastern states of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas.
Deficits are also forecast for much of Baja, though surpluses are expected in the Peninsula’s northwestern and southern extremes. Surpluses are also forecast across the Gulf of California in Sonora and will reach exceptional intensity in the northeastern region of the state.
Central Mexico will see mild to moderate deficits.
In Central America, moderate to severe surpluses are forecast for southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and pockets in Panama, northern Honduras, and southeastern Guatemala. Surpluses are also expected in central and western Cuba, along Haiti’s western coast, and in the central Bahamas.
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.
The forecast through May indicates that severe to exceptional surpluses will persist in northeastern Sonora, Mexico with moderate surpluses along the lower stretches of the Yaqui River as it reaches the
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Gulf of California and in some areas south of Sonora. Surpluses will persist in the northwest corner of Baja, in Nuevo Leon near Monterrey, along the central Pacific Coast, and around Mexico City. Deficits will increase in Chihuahua, Coahuila, and northern Durango, and small pockets of deficit are forecast for southern Baja and central Mexico. Deficits, primarily moderate, will increase in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.
In Central America, surpluses are forecast for Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Costa Rica. Deficits will nearly disappear in the Caribbean and surpluses are forecast in central Cuba, near Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and in the central Bahamas.
From June through August, nearly normal water conditions are expected in many parts of the region. However, intense surpluses will persist in northeastern Sonora with conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) as transitions occur. Moderate deficits are forecast for southeastern Chihuahua, pockets of central Coahuila, and central Baja. Moderate surpluses are forecast in a few pockets in Central America including northern Honduras and Panama. Surpluses are also forecast for central Cuba and near Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
The forecast for the final three months – August through October – indicates a forecast similar to that of the prior three months - nearly normal water conditions in much of the region with surpluses in Sonora and pockets of Central America and the Caribbean, and some pockets of moderate deficit including persistent deficits in southeastern Chihuahua.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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South America The 12-month forecast through November indicates deficit conditions in many areas throughout the region. Though eastern Brazil will be largely spared, deficits of varying intensity are forecast for much of the remainder of the country and will include severe deficits along the Amazon River and deficits reaching exceptional intensity in Amapá in the north; Mato Grosso, Pará, Tocantins, Goías, and Mato Grosso do Sul in central Brazil; Rondônia in the west; and Rio Grande do Sul in the south.
In the east, pockets of surplus are forecast in Pernambuco and Minas Gerais. Moderate deficits are expected in southern Bahia and deficits somewhat more intense farther south in São Paulo State.
Across the northern arc of the continent, exceptional deficits are expected in French Guiana; moderate to exceptional anomalies in Suriname, Guyana, southern and northwestern Venezuela, and eastern Colombia; and moderate anomalies in southern Colombia and small pockets of Ecuador. Surpluses are forecast for the Orinoco Delta in northeastern Venezuela.
Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in many areas of Peru and in eastern and southern Bolivia, and surpluses are expected along their shared border as well as several pockets in northern and central Peru.
The forecast for Chile indicates deficits throughout much of the nation which will be intense in many regions including Santiago. Conditions in Paraguay will be relatively normal though extreme deficits will trace a path along the Paraguay River through the center of the country, downgrading slightly to severe intensity as it meets the Paraná River through Argentina.
Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Buenos Aires Province in the Argentine Pampas. Some areas of exceptional deficit are forecast in northern and western Argentina, and surpluses in the northwestern provinces of La Rioja and Catamarca. Moderate deficits are expected in southern Uruguay.
The 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in greater detail.
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The forecast through May indicates that the extent of deficits in the region will shrink considerably overall. Intense deficits are forecast, however, for French Guiana and Suriname; southern Venezuela and northern Amazonas (Brazil); Piura (northwestern Peru); southernmost Bolivia; Mato Grosso do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul, and the border of São Paulo State and Paraná (Brazil); and the Gulf of Corcovado (Chile). Deficits ranging from moderate to severe are forecast for the western Amazon Basin and Mato Grosso (Brazil); northwestern Venezuela; southern Colombia; pockets in Peru and in Bolivia’s southern half; the Paraguay River through Paraguay and pockets in the east; northern Argentina and the Pampas; and northern and central Chile.
Surpluses will emerge in a large block of southeastern Brazil including Minas Gerais and nearby regions of neighboring states east and west, and a few pockets in eastern Brazil, particularly Pernambuco. Surpluses elsewhere include the Orinoco Delta in northeastern Venezuela, Argentina’s northwestern provinces, and some lingering, though shrunken, pockets in Ecuador and Peru.
From June through August, conditions in many parts of the continent will normalize. Intense deficits will persist in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil; in pockets of Bolivia’s southern tip and across the border into northern Chile; and along the northern border of Chile and Argentina. Small pockets of intense deficit will emerge in western Ecuador and in a spotted path through the Cordillera Occidental Mountains in western Peru. Severe deficits are forecast for Buenos Aires Province in Argentina, and generally moderate deficits in southern Colombia, eastern Ecuador, much of Peru, the southern Amazon Basin in
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Brazil, and some areas of Bolivia and Chile. Surpluses will shrink but persist around Minas Gerais, Brazil and Pernambuco, and in northwestern Argentina.
In the final quarter – September through November – generally moderate deficits are forecast for scattered pockets in western nations, with a few more intense areas, and surpluses will persist in northwestern Argentina.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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Europe The 12-month forecast through November indicates exceptional water deficits in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and pockets of Sweden and Norway. Deficits of varying intensity are expected from Belarus through Bulgaria, the southwestern Iberian Peninsula, and pockets of Italy and Central Europe.
Areas with a forecast of severe to exceptional deficit include, but are not limited to, western Ukraine, southern Moldova, eastern Bulgaria, Sardinia, Sicily, southern Belgium, and from Lisbon to Gibraltar. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for Romania, pockets in the Balkans, central and southwestern France, and central and southwestern Spain.
Widespread surpluses are forecast for Ireland, the U.K., and Brittany and Normandy, France. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in Wales, England, and Ireland. Other areas with a forecast of surplus include Jutland (Denmark); large pockets in southern Norway and northern Sweden; and isolated smaller pockets near Barcelona, Valencia, and Murcia (Spain), and in Central Europe.
In European Russia, widespread surpluses reaching exceptional intensity are forecast in the north along with conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) as transitions occur. Deficits of varying intensity are expected from Moscow to the Caspian Sea.
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month time period show the evolving conditions.
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The forecast through May indicates that surpluses will shrink in Central and Western Europe but will remain widespread in the U.K. and Ireland. Exceptional anomalies will persist in Ireland and Northern Ireland but anomalies in Great Britain will downgrade somewhat, with moderate to severe surpluses in England and Scotland and more intense conditions in Wales and north of Edinburgh. Surpluses in northern European Russia will remain widespread and intense but will retreat from St. Petersburg to Moscow. Other areas with a forecast of surplus include southern Norway, northern Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands, northern France, and pockets in Central and Eastern Europe including Switzerland, central Slovakia, and north-central Romania.
Exceptional deficits will shrink slightly in Finland, though remain widespread, and increase in Estonia and Latvia. Severe to exceptional deficits will emerge around Moscow and in southern Belarus and western Ukraine, and persist in Moldova and eastern Bulgaria. Primarily moderate deficits are expected in Romania and pockets of the Balkans, but more intense deficits will continue in pockets of Italy. Deficits are expected to emerge in the western Iberian Peninsula while some pockets of surplus persist along Spain’s Mediterranean Coast. Deficits will increase in central France and emerge along France’s Mediterranean Coast.
From June through August, surpluses will diminish considerably, persisting in eastern England and pockets of northern Sweden and northern European Russia, with conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) in Russia as transitions occur. Deficits will persist with intensity in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia; downgrade from Belarus through Bulgaria; increase from St. Petersburg to the Caspian Sea; and intensify in the southwestern Iberian Peninsula. Deficits will also increase in France and Central Europe, transitioning from surplus in parts of the Alps, but deficits are expected to be primarily moderate.
The forecast for the remaining months – September through November – indicates nearly normal water conditions for much of the region with intense deficits lingering in Finland and Estonia, some moderate deficits in France and southern European Russia, and surpluses in eastern England and northern European Russia.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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Africa The 12-month forecast through November indicates intense water deficits across northern Africa including widespread exceptional anomalies. Exceptional deficits are also forecast for Equatorial Guinea through western Gabon, a pocket in southwestern Namibia, southern Mozambique, Madagascar’s central west coast, and a pocket north of Mogadishu, Somalia.
Deficits of generally lesser intensity are expected in Guinea Bissau, Cameroon, northwestern Democratic Republic of the Congo, northwestern and southeastern Angola, southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, Swaziland and south into several provinces in South Africa, and some pockets in Somaliland.
Intense surpluses are forecast in East Africa in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania, with anomalies of generally lesser intensity spilling into Rwanda, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Zambia. Surplus anomalies are expected to be exceptional in western Kenya, on the Victoria Nile through Uganda, in pockets of Tanzania including Dar es Salaam and Zanzibar, and in northwestern Madagascar. Other areas of surplus include scattered pockets across the Sahel, and Eritrea, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Kinshasa Province in Democratic Republic of the Congo, west-central Angola, Namibia’s central coast, and a few pockets in South Africa.
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.
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The forecast through May indicates deficits of varying intensity across northern Africa with large pockets of exceptional deficit in Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, and Sudan. Deficits are also forecast for northwestern Ethiopia and Eritrea’s narrow panhandle, while deficits in the Horn of Africa are expected to retreat.
Nations north of the Gulf of Guinea can expect surpluses of varying intensity as can southern Chad, northwestern Central African Republic, south-central Sudan leading into South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and segments of the Nile River in Sudan and South Sudan. Isolated small pockets of exceptional surplus are forecast near Benghazi, Libya and Alexandria, Egypt.
Widespread surpluses will persist in East Africa and, while downgrading, will be severe to extreme in some areas, particularly Tanzania. Regions with a forecast of surplus include Tanzania, Burundi, east- central Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya, Uganda, and southwestern Ethiopia.
Deficits will moderate in Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and northwestern DRC. Southern African nations can expect normal conditions or generally mild deficits, though moderate to severe deficits are forecast in South Africa northeast of Lesotho and in Swaziland. Some scattered pockets of surplus are also forecast in South Africa and neighboring nations, and in a pocket in western DRC and in west-central Angola. In Madagascar, surpluses will disappear and deficits will emerge, increasing and intensifying along the west coast.
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From June through August, deficits will continue to be widespread across northern Africa but will shrink considerably from the continent’s westernmost tip through Niger. Nearly normal water conditions are forecast across the southern Sahara and nations north of the Gulf of Guinea. Surpluses are expected across the eastern Sahel and will emerge in Eritrea and much of Ethiopia. In East Africa, surpluses are expected to shrink and moderate overall though anomalies will be more intense in central Tanzania. Deficits will shrink and downgrade in Madagascar, moderate in South Africa near Swaziland, and persist in Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and to the east along the northern border shared by Republic of the Congo and DRC.
The forecast for the final quarter – September through November – indicates persistent surpluses in East Africa, the eastern Sahel, and Ethiopia. Deficits across northern Africa will shrink considerably and downgrade.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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Middle East The forecast for the 12-month period ending November indicates widespread, intense water deficits covering much of the Arabian Peninsula including exceptional anomalies in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman.
Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for southern Iraq, intense surpluses in northern Iraq around Mosul, and conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) west of the Euphrates River as transitions occur.
Exceptional surpluses are expected from central Syria to the north, moderating across the border into Turkey. Some pockets of surplus are also forecast along Turkey’s southeastern coast. Intense deficits are expected in Georgia north of Tbilisi.
In Iran, severe to exceptional surpluses are expected along the Caspian Sea Coast, transitioning along the Turkmen border. A large block of surplus is forecast along the central Iraq-Iran border well into western Iran. Some large blocks of surplus are forecast in southern Iranian provinces along the Persian Gulf and exceptional anomalies from the Strait of Hormuz leading into Kerman Province. Deficits of varying intensity are expected in the center of the country.
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.
The forecast through May indicates that widespread surpluses in the region will shrink, though many areas of surplus are forecast. Exceptional surpluses are expected in central and northern Syria,
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moderating across the border into Turkey, and a pocket of exceptional surplus is forecast along Turkey’s eastern Black Sea Coast. Exceptional surpluses will persist around Mosul, Iraq. In Iran, severe to exceptional surpluses will persist in the north along the Caspian Sea Coast but will shrink along the border with Turkmenistan. A large block of surplus will persist along the Iraq-Iran border leading well into western Iran, though the intensity will downgrade slightly. Surpluses will also persist in the south with exceptional anomalies around the Strait of Hormuz leading into Kerman Province.
On the Arabian Peninsula, Deficits will downgrade overall, but exceptional deficits are forecast from eastern Yemen into western Iran. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Saudi Arabia with a few areas reaching greater intensity in the center and also in the southeast where conditions will transition from prior surplus.
From June through August, surpluses will continue to shrink, though exceptional anomalies will persist around Mosul and pockets of southern Iran, and moderate anomalies will persist in western Iran. Many areas of previous surplus will begin to transition (pink/purple) including Syria, Iran’s northeastern coast, and parts of southern Iran. Deficits will emerge in much of central Iran and along the Persian Gulf; will intensify in Saudi Arabia, as exceptional anomalies increase; and will downgrade in Yemen and Oman, becoming merely mild. Generally mild deficits will emerge in nations along the eastern Mediterranean.
In the final quarter – September through November – some moderate surpluses will persist in western Iran. Deficits are forecast for central and northeastern Iran and southern Saudi Arabia.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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Central Asia and Russia The 12-month forecast through November indicates a region of intense deficit in western Kazakhstan, central Uzbekistan and along the Uzbekistan border with Turkmenistan. Anomalies will be exceptional on the Caspian coast of Kazakhstan and diminishing farther inland. Surplus anomalies dominate a large region stretching from the Northern European Plain across the Urals through the Western Siberian Plain. Anomalies may be exceptional in the Vychedga Lowlands west of the Urals and in patches of northernmost Kazakhstan. Elsewhere, a patchwork of surplus and deficit conditions are forecast including areas of extreme to exceptional deficit both northwest and southeast of Lake Baikal.
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.
The forecast through May indicates widespread intense surpluses persisting in Russia in the Northern European Plain and across the Ural Mountains into the Western Siberian Plain. The extent of exceptional surplus will diminish in westernmost Russia (in the St. Petersburg region) but increase farther East as far as the western sections of the Central Siberian Plateau. Elsewhere on the Central Siberian Plateau deficits will give way to generally normal conditions. The band of deficits dominating much of
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Kazakhstan is forecast to diminish except for in the Caspian Depression where they may become exceptional.
From June through August, surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain through the Western Siberian Plateau will shrink, downgrade, and transition to conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) as transitions occur. Pockets of surplus anomalies will persist including exceptional anomalies in the Vychegda Lowland. Conditions of surplus are forecast to change to deficit in the Yenisey River valley near the confluence of the Podkamennaya Tunguska. Deficits in the Caspian Depression are likely to diminish.
The forecast for the final months – September through November – indicates that anomalies region- wide will diminish. Surpluses will persist in the Vychedga Lowlands and deficits will persist on the eastern edge of the Western Siberian Plain.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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South Asia The 12-month forecast through November indicates that moderate surpluses will dominate much of central India from Gujarat through Madhya Pradesh and eastern Rajasthan and into Uttar Pradesh in the Gangetic Plain. Surpluses will also trace a wide path along the western coast from Mumbai through Karnataka.
Anomalies will reach extreme to exceptional intensity in a path from Pune in Maharashtra through central Karnataka, and in a pocket in central Rajasthan. Anomalies will also be intense in India’s Far North. Tamil Nadu in the nation’s southern tip will see some moderate surplus anomalies, and surpluses will reach throughout Sri Lanka nearby where anomalies will be extreme along the southeast coast. Severe deficits are forecast for India’s Far Northeast.
Moderate surpluses are expected for the Ganges Delta in Bangladesh and some pockets in the northeast. Moderate surpluses are also forecast for northwestern Nepal, but surpluses will be intense down the center of the country along the Gandaki River, moderating as it joins the Ganges in India.
In Pakistan, surpluses are expected along major rivers, in the north, and crossing the central border into Afghanistan reaching from Kabul to Kandahar. Surpluses are also forecast in a pocket surrounding Mazar-e Sharif in Afghanistan. Anomalies will be exceptional around Mazar-e Sharif and in the Hindu Kush in Pakistan, and primarily extreme in southeastern Afghanistan. Deficits are forecast for northern and western Afghanistan.
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.
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Widespread surpluses are forecast to persist in the region through May. In India, though conditions in Gujarat in the west will begin to transition (pink/purple), surpluses of varying intensity will persist across the breadth of the nation through the Gangetic Plain, in the west from Mumbai through much of Karnataka, and in the Far North. Anomalies will be exceptional in many areas including along the Ganges, from Mumbai into Karnataka, and central Madhya Pradesh. Deficits will emerge in India’s Far Northeast.
Surpluses will remain widespread in Nepal and Bangladesh, downgrading somewhat in Bangladesh. Conditions of both deficit and surplus are forecast for Sri Lanka as transitions occur. Intense surpluses are expected to persist along rivers in Pakistan, in the north, and along the border with Afghanistan. Surpluses will shrink and downgrade somewhat in Afghanistan but will remain widespread from Kabul past Kandahar and exceptional around Mazar-e Sharif in the northwest. Mild deficits will emerge in western Afghanistan and southern Pakistan.
From June through August, surpluses will diminish considerably overall leaving normal conditions in many areas. Some intense surpluses will persist in India’s Far North and along a path from western Maharashtra southeast into central Karnataka. Moderate surpluses are forecast in several regions including a large block at the intersection of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra; in central Uttar Pradesh; and southern Tamil Nadu. Deficits will intensify in the Far Northeast.
In Sri Lanka, moderate surpluses will re-emerge. Conditions in Bangladesh and Nepal will return to near- normal, with surpluses persisting along the Gandaki River through Nepal into India. Surpluses will shrink
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along rivers in Pakistan and persist in Afghanistan from Kabul to Kandahar. Transitional conditions are forecast around Mazar-e Sharif, and a pocket of exceptional deficit will emerge in southern Afghanistan leading across the border into Pakistan.
The forecast for the final months – September through November – indicates moderate surpluses increasing in India from Gujarat into the Gangetic Plain. Moderate surpluses are also forecast in some pockets of the south. Transitional conditions are expected in southeastern Afghanistan and a pocket of exceptional deficit will emerge near Karachi in Pakistan.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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Southeast Asia and the Pacific The 12-month forecast through November indicates extreme to exceptional water deficits throughout mainland Thailand and western Cambodia including Tonlé Sap. Deficits nearly as intensity are expected in peninsular Thailand and peninsular Malaysia. Primarily moderate deficits are expected in Laos.
Western Myanmar will see surpluses as will Vietnam’s North Central Coast and Central Highlands.
Deficits are forecast for eastern Sumatra with a few small, isolated pockets of moderate surplus on the island’s west coast. Surpluses are also forecast for northern Indonesian Borneo, western Java, western Flores Island, the eastern half of New Guinea’s Bird’s Head Peninsula (Doberai Peninsula), and northern Luzon, Philippines. Deficits are expected in Mindanao and in the eastern Philippines; Brunei; Bali; and around the western shore of the Gulf of Papua in Papua New Guinea where anomalies will be intense.
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.
The forecast through May indicates that deficits in Thailand will moderate and deficits in Cambodia will shrink, though intense anomalies are forecast near Tonlé Sap. Deficits will increase in the Malay Peninsula and will emerge in Vietnam south of Da Nang. Surpluses are forecast for Vietnam’s North Central Coast and a belt across the south; northeastern Laos; and pockets of western and northern
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Myanmar. Exceptional deficits will emerge along the southern Irrawaddy River in Myanmar including the delta region.
Deficits of varying intensity are expected in northern and eastern Sumatra, along Borneo’s north shore, Mindanao and the eastern Philippines, North Maluku and western Bird’s Head Peninsula, and the Gulf of Papua. Areas of surplus include Java, Flores, pockets of Indonesian Borneo and Sulawesi, and northern Luzon.
From June through August, anomalies in the region will shrink and downgrade considerably. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for southern and western Thailand, and moderate to severe deficits in Kayin Province in southeastern Myanmar, peninsular Malaysia, and pockets of eastern Sumatra. Relatively mild deficits are expected in the Philippines, and a small pocket of exceptional deficit is forecast in East Timor. Moderate surpluses are expected in easternmost Vietnam and scattered, small pockets of Indonesia and New Guinea.
The forecast for the final months – September through November – indicates some moderate deficits in Thailand, northernmost Vietnam, and central Philippines, and moderate surpluses in New Guinea and in many pockets throughout Indonesia.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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East Asia The 12-month forecast for East Asia through November indicates water surpluses of varying intensity in vast pockets of Northeast China, in the Yellow River Basin (Huang He), and in western Tibet (Xizang). Moderate surpluses are forecast for Shanghai in the east and Guizhou in the south.
Exceptional deficits are expected in western Inner Mongolia with deficits of varying intensity in Mongolia. Deficits will also be intense in Xinjiang in western China, particularly in the Taklimakan Desert.
Some pockets of moderate to severe deficit are forecast in southern Yunnan, Fujian, and Taiwan, and moderate deficits west of the Bohai Sea.
On the Korean Peninsula, a few pockets of deficit are forecast for northeastern North Korea, and moderate surpluses in southeastern South Korea. Japan can expect moderate deficits in western Hokkaido.
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.
The forecast through May indicates widespread surpluses in the Yellow River Basin, severe along the lower and middle stretches of the river and reaching exceptional intensity in the vast upper basin.
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Moderate to extreme surpluses are expected in the Upper Yangtze Basin. Tibet will also see surpluses and anomalies will be exceptional in central Tibet and along the Yarlung (Brahmaputra) River. Intense surpluses will persist in Northeast China though the extent will shrink slightly. Moderate surpluses are expected near Shanghai and moderate to severe in Guizhou.
Deficits will nearly disappear in the southeast but exceptional deficits will persist in southern Yunnan. Moderate to extreme deficits will emerge in western Inner Mongolia and in Xinjiang along with conditions of both deficit and surplus as transitions occur.
Surpluses are forecast for northwestern Mongolia, but widespread deficits are expected in much of the remainder of the country and will include exceptional anomalies. South Korea can expect nearly normal water conditions, while in North Korea deficits will decrease and surpluses will increase. Intense deficits are forecast for northern Honshu, Japan, and generally mild deficits in Hokkaido.
From June through August, surpluses will shrink overall, retreating from most of Northeast China and the Yangtze Basin, and moderating in much of the Yellow River Basin. A pocket of moderate surplus is forecast in southern Guizhou, and intense surpluses will persist in Tibet. Deficits will shrink considerably in Mongolia. Deficits will also shrink in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang though some intense pockets are expected. Deficits in southern Yunnan will disappear, but moderate to severe deficits will emerge in eastern Tibet. Nearly normal conditions are forecast for the Korean Peninsula and much of Japan, though deficits will intensify in Hokkaido.
The forecast for the final three months – September through November – indicates nearly normal water conditions in much of the region with surpluses in the Upper Yellow River Watershed and western Tibet, and moderate deficits in Sichuan, Shaanxi, eastern Yunnan, and along the northwest shore of the Bohai Sea.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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Australia & New Zealand The 12-month forecast through November indicates deficits in Australia in Top End, Northern Territory; northern Queensland; around Adelaide in the south; Tasmania; and the southern tip of Western Australia.
Deficits will be severe to exceptional in Top End, and in the Gregory Range in Far North Queensland and coastal areas to the east, but moderate in the eastern Cape York Peninsula. Near Adelaide, exceptional deficits are expected with severe anomalies on Kangaroo Island and near the southern border with Victoria. Tasmania will see moderate to exceptional deficits. In Western Australia, deficits will be moderate near Perth but more intense in the Busselton and Blackwood River regions farther south.
A large pocket of exceptional surplus is forecast crossing the western Gibson Desert in Western Australia connecting to surpluses of lesser intensity along the De Grey and Fortescue Rivers to the north and a few pockets trailing south. Farther north, surpluses are expected in the northern portion of the Great Sandy Desert and into the Fitzroy River region. Along Western Australia’s southern coast, surpluses are forecast inland north of Esperance. In eastern Australia west of Brisbane, the forecast is for surpluses in the northwestern reaches of the Darling Downs. In coastal areas south of Brisbane nearly to Melbourne, a dappled pattern of deficits, surpluses, and transitional conditions is forecast.
Moderate to extreme deficits are forecast in New Zealand from central South Island to the northern tip of North Island. Severe deficits are forecast for New Caledonia.
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.
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The forecast through May indicates that deficits will nearly disappear, leaving many parts of Australia with relatively normal water conditions. Deficits will persist, though downgrade, in Western Australia’s (WA) southern tip, along Victoria’s central coast, and in Tasmania. Deficits will shrink in New Zealand, persisting in North Island and in the northern region of South Island, and a small pocket of moderate deficit will persist in central New Caledonia.
Surpluses will persist with intensity in a large block of Western Australia at the western edge of the Gibson Desert and along several rivers leading north. Severe surpluses will emerge in a large block in the Kimberley region. In eastern Australia, surpluses will persist west of Brisbane in the northwest corner of the Darling Downs, Queensland (QLD) and will re-emerge in pockets along the coast from Gold Coast past Sydney.
From June through July, most lingering deficits will disappear or downgrade, leaving some moderate anomalies in central Tasmania and anomalies more intense in a pocket of western North Island. However, exceptional deficits are forecast to emerge along the northern border of WA and Northern Territory (NT) between the upper reaches of the Ord and Victoria Rivers. Moderate deficits in Arnhem Land in eastern Top End, NT will intensify, becoming exceptional. Surpluses in WA will persist near the Gibson Desert, but transition to conditions of both deficit and surplus in the Kimberley. In eastern Australia, surpluses will shrink and moderate in the Darling Downs and along the southeastern coast, but moderate surpluses will emerge inland in northeastern New South Wales (NSW) west of Armidale.
The forecast for the final months – September through November – indicates that surpluses will increase significantly in eastern NSW, shrink near the Darling Downs QLD, persist in WA near the Gibson Desert, and begin to re-emerge in the Kimberley. Exceptional deficits will emerge in a small pocket around Broome on Australia’s northwest coast, and deficits will downgrade in Arnhem Land.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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