The 5th Annual Australia-Japan Dialogue Policy Convergence and Divergence in Australia and Japan: Assessing Identity Shift within the Bilateral Relationship 5th Annual Australia-Japan Dialogue Griffith Asia Institute (in partnership with Ritsumeikan University) Brisbane, December 10, 2015 Edited by Michael Heazle and Andrew O’Neil ii Introduction Griffith Asia Institute The Griffith Asia Institute produces innovative, interdisciplinary research on key developments in the politics, economics, societies and cultures of Asia and the South Pacific. By promoting knowledge of Australia’s changing region and its importance to our future, the Griffith Asia Institute seeks to inform and foster academic scholarship, public awareness and considered and responsive policy making. The Institute’s work builds on over a 40 year Griffith University tradition of providing cutting-edge research on issues of contemporary significance in the region. Griffith was the first University in the country to offer Asian Studies to undergraduate students and remains a pioneer in this field. This strong history means that today’s Institute can draw on the expertise of some 50 Asia-Pacific focused academics from many disciplines across the university. The 5th Annual Australia-Japan Dialogue - Policy Convergence and Divergence in Australia and Japan: Assessing Identity Shift within the Bilateral Relationship ISBN 978-1-925455-05-2 © Griffith Asia Institute and the authors iii 5th Annual Australia-Japan Dialogue Acknowledgements The Griffith Asia Institute 5th Australia-Japan Dialogue was held in Brisbane on December 10, 2015, with the generous support of The Japan Foundation and in partnership with Ritsumeikan University (Kyoto, Japan). On behalf of the Griffith Asia Institute, the editors would like also to gratefully note the support of Professor Masahiro Kobori and colleagues from Ritsumeikan University, in addition to the following key participants who made highly valued contributions to the Dialogue’s successful discussions and outcomes. First, we would like to thank Ambassador Toshiro Iijima, (Policy, Planning, International Security Policy; Deputy Director-General, Foreign Policy Bureau Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs) and Mr Graham Fletcher (First Assistant Secretary, North Asia Division, Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade) for their kind support and insightful opening remarks on the bilateral relationship and its ongoing evolution. Second, we would like to thank Professor Richard Rigby (Australian National University), Dr Tomohiko Satake (Japan National Institute for Defence Studies), Professor Haig Patapan (Griffith University), and Dr Duncan McDonnell (Griffith University) for chairing the sessions and their important contribution in running the discussions and providing commentary on the papers. We also thank Professor Benjamin Schreer (Macquarie University) and Mr Cameron Stewart (Associate Editor, The Australian) for their participation and valuable input to the Dialogue’s discussions and outcomes, and acknowledge the excellent assistance of Japan Consul-General Hidehiro Hosaka and his staff at the Brisbane Consulate General in support of the Australia-Japan Dialogues. Last, but certainly not least, we would like to say a very big “thank you” to Griffith Asia Institute Manager Ms Meegan Thorley. Without Meegan’s superb organisational skills, eye for detail, and tireless dedication to making sure everything is just as it should be with each and every Australia-Japan Dialogue, none of this would be possible. Michael Heazle & Andrew O’Neil March 31, 2016 Brisbane, Australia iv Introduction Contents Editors Introduction 1 Michael Heazle and Andrew O’Neil 1. Is China a Revisionist State? The Case of the South China Sea 16 Miwa Hirono 2. China’s Rise and Asian Security: The Perils of Prediction 34 Andrew O’Neil 3. Abe’s Politics: Past, Present and Future 47 Masaki Ina 4. Legislative Action on Security 70 John Kane 5. The Difference Between “Normal Countries” in the 1990s and the 2010s: “Civic” Ozawa and “Ethnic” Abe? 88 Masahiro Kobori v 5th Annual Australia-Japan Dialogue 6. Executive Accountability in Security Policy Making: Australia 113 Pat Weller 7. Japan’s Perception of its Security Environment: How Deeply Is the Consensus Shared? 129 Yuki Tatsumi 8. Does the China Gap Matter? Australia—Japan Security Cooperation and “the Interests that Bind Us” 148 Michael Heazle 9. A Wide Preference Gap? Public Opinion and Political Parties’ Preferences on National Security in Japan, 1981–2015 172 Go Murakami 10. Political and Electoral Trends in the Australian Polity 194 Tracey Arklay vi Editors Introduction Michael Heazle and Andrew O’Neil The Australia-Japan Dialogues are focused on the bilateral relationship of two sovereign states and are conducted, therefore, within the disciplinary domains of Foreign Policy Analysis and International Relations. But while theoretical approaches operating only at the international or system level can generate general conclusions about the behaviour of states in an anarchical international environment, analysing the foreign policy behaviour of individual states requires analysis at both the international and domestic levels if we are to appreciate how structural and ideational influences combine to influence foreign policy. The annual Australia-Japan Dialogues provide a valuable opportunity for collaboration between political scientists, international relations specialists, and policy experts. Indeed, the theme of the 2015 Dialogues was squarely focused on promoting interdisciplinary and institutional cooperation in Australia-Japan related research, and brought together experts from various fields 5th Annual Australia-Japan Dialogue to analyse and compare Japanese and Australian perceptions and policy making, an analysis that yielded valuable insights into the drivers of Japan’s identity shift, current trends in Australian and Japanese politics, and the types of challenges and opportunities a “more normal” Japan is likely to present. Debate over the meaning and desirability of a more “normal” Japan has raged since the early 1990s when leading Japanese political figure Ichiro Ozawa announced his Blueprint for a New Japan in response to what he saw as the new realities of the post-Cold War era. Indeed, some of the reforms called for by Ozawa have either been achieved, or are still in progress. These include: the shelving of the post-war Yoshida Doctrine, the strengthening of executive authority in decision-making, and incremental moves towards freeing up legal restrictions on Japan’s use of its military. One of Ozawa’s main objectives — the development of a more conventional strategic identity for Japan — has progressed rapidly under current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Abe’s Cabinet announced a major “re-interpretation” of Article 9 in 2014 among several reforms aimed at increasing Japan’s security contribution to the US alliance and the region more broadly. Criticised by some as an ultra-nationalist keen on glorifying Japan’s military past, and applauded by others for navigating Japan’s escape from the uncertainty of the 2 Introduction “lost decades”, Prime Minister Abe’s policies are controversial and their ultimate fate remains unclear. What is clear, however, is that Japan’s identity in the Asia-Pacific is changing, and the meaning of the various changes underpinning Japan’s collective makeover as a nation state remains disputed at home and abroad. Indeed, even Ozawa opposes Abe’s vision of a more normal Japan, indicating the highly contested nature of the Abe Government’s reforms. When examined only through the lenses of Japan’s “peace constitution” and its past occupation of Korea, China, and Southeast Asia, domestic and regional concern over any departure from the formal renunciation of military force that has characterised Japan’s foreign policy for more than six decades is understandable. But when also viewed in the context of Asia’s increasingly fluid strategic environment, a broader perspective on the Abe Government’s policies becomes possible. How Japan redefines its own role in Asia and beyond will impact on the future of the Australia-Japan relationship, so it is critical to grasp the various dynamics shaping that redefinition. Dialogue Objectives and Approach The 2015 Australia-Japan Dialogue located Japan’s political and security reforms within this context by 3 5th Annual Australia-Japan Dialogue examining convergence and divergence between Australian and Japanese policy responses to contemporary international pressures. The Dialogue focused in particular on identifying how Japan’s emerging identity as a more active international actor is being driven by changes in the global order as distinct from the influence of domestic political factors. Australia and Japan’s shared democratic governance, overlapping strategic alignments, and similar foreign policy priorities provide a strong basis for gauging the level of external influence on domestic policy development in both countries. Indeed, comparing the Japanese experience with the Australian experience is significant because both are US allies confronting similar challenges in Asia with respect to geopolitical shifts, triggered largely by China’s rise. Therefore a broader, more nuanced, analysis of the drivers behind Japan’s current shift away from its traditional pacifist identity towards that of a more engaged state actor acting beyond narrow economic considerations is important for better understanding: 1) the drivers of Japan’s