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Climate Risk Screening of Development Portfolios and Programmes

Thomas Tanner

1 Adapting development cooperation to climate encouraging settlement in hazardous locations or change altering natural protection afforded by ecosystems Responding to the impact of climate variability and such as mangroves (Agrawala 2005; Adger et al. 2001). change on poverty, development organisations increasingly acknowledge that climate change poses a A growing awareness of potential and existing strategic risk to its core poverty reduction aims and climate risks to poverty reduction has underpinned a the achievement of the Millennium Development major drive for adaptation, and: Goals (MDGs) (ADB et al. 2003; DFID 2006; UNDP 2007). For development cooperation donor agencies, There is now also significant high-level policy climate change also poses a fiduciary risk by potentially endorsement within donor agencies and compromising the effectiveness of the investments of [International Finance Institutions] IFIs for the public funds in poverty reduction around the world.1 need to integrate adaptation into development These risks include direct risks of damages from co-operation activities. climate hazards to specific programme investments, (Gigli and Agrawala 2007: 9) the risk of underperformance of the investment due to climate change impacts (van Aalst 2006). In A range of donor and international policy addition, there are risks that poverty reduction commitments are now underpinning a drive to activities may in fact inadvertently lead to increases in address the negative impacts of climate change on vulnerability, known as ‘maladaptation’, for example by poverty reduction (Table 1). While these aim to build

Table 1 Examples of policy commitments for integrating adaptation and development assistance

Policy commitments Reference

Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group (VARG): Poverty and Climate Change: ADB et al. (2003) Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor Through Adaptation European Union: Strategy and Action Plan on Climate Change in the Context of EC (2004) Development Cooperation G8: Gleneagles Plan of Action; Hokkaido Toyako Summit Leaders Declaration G8 (2005, 2008) Asian Development Bank: Climate Proofing: A Risk-based Approach to Adaptation ADB (2005) OECD: Ministerial Declaration on Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into OECD (2006) Development Co-operation UK International Development White Paper: Eliminating World Poverty: Making DFID (2006) Governance Work for the Poor

IDS Bulletin Volume 39 Number 4 September 2008 © Institute of Development Studies

87 the awareness and capacity of a wider range of effective, efficient and equitable adaptation development actors to factor climate change impacts options to reduce risks and harness opportunities into their operations, a key managerial response of for poverty reduction. development agencies has been to integrate, or mainstream, adaptation within their programmes as a Using a risk management framework, such screening risk management strategy. aims to examine the exposure of development investments to current and future climate risks, to In turn, these policy commitments have been assess the extent to which such investments already influential in stimulating a burgeoning variety of tools consider and manage such risks, and evaluate and methods to improve decision-making to reduce potential additional measures to address risks. While risks and avail opportunities associated with climate not undertaken comprehensively in the example variability and change. Tanner and Guenther (2007) shown in this article, at a more advanced level, such provide a summary of some of the tools developed risk screening could also examine the risks and in the context of development assistance, and the opportunities from climate change mitigation OECD is currently preparing guidance material on response measures or adaptation constraints and integrating adaptation into development opportunities from carbon markets and a move to cooperation. A wider discussion and collation of low carbon energy pathways. vulnerability and adaptation tools and methods is also now a focus area under the Nairobi Work Representing a managerial response to a changing Programme under the UN Framework Convention climate, the risk management framework is on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (IISD 2008). Such increasingly being used to frame development tools range from climate data providers, through approaches to adaptation (Burton and van Aalst methodological guidance for entry points and steps 2004; ADB 2005; van Aalst 2006; Hellmuth et al. in the adaptation process, to platforms for 2007). Climate risk management frames adaptation exchanging information resources, tools and as a learning process constituting a spectrum of reflection. activities, some related to broader vulnerability reduction and some to more climate-specific 2 Climate risk screening of development impacts (Tanner and Mitchell, this IDS Bulletin, portfolios and programmes ‘Entrenchment or Enhancement’; McGray et al. Drawing on much of this tool development, the 2007). It is underpinned by an acknowledgement screening of donor programme portfolios has that the basis for adapting to the future climate lies emerged as one of the dominant methods to the in improving the ability to cope with existing climate integration of climate change adaptation into variations, requiring integration with disaster risk development cooperation (Klein et al. 2007). Such reduction practices and institutions (Lemos and screening approaches build on lessons from the Tompkins, this IDS Bulletin). mainstreaming of other cross-cutting issues such as gender and HIV/AIDS into development activities, In light of uncertainty over future climate change, and particularly from environmental screening and risk management responses need to be informed by strategic environment assessment processes. This advances in climate science, and remain robust so article presents lessons from an example of that they are able to cope with a range of future portfolio-based climate risk screening to integrate scenarios. This requires integration of best available adaptation and disaster risk reduction into poverty climate science and impacts, including attention to reduction programmes portfolio undertaken in short-term seasonal forecasting, medium-term partnership with the UK Department for decadal forecasting, and longer-term climate International Development (DFID) (Tanner 2008). projections (Wilby 2007). At the same time, information on hydro-meteorological and ecosystem Climate risk screening is defined in the context of pro- impacts of climate change are complemented by poor adaptation as: social vulnerability information to help identify vulnerability hotspots. This includes for example data The systematic evaluation of risks associated with on poverty and nutrition, or incidence of rain-fed climate variability and change to poverty agriculture. reduction activities, and the development of

88 Tanner Climate Risk Screening of Development Portfolios and Programmes Figure 1 The ORCHID climate risk screening methodology

a Sensitisation and awareness-raising

c Strategic overview of b Basic climate change and programmes disasters profile

d Initial portfolio screening identifies high priority interventions

f Identify potential risks to e Technical inputs on climate interventions hazards and vulnerabilities

g Compare risks to h Compile adaptation options existing risk management to tackle unmanaged risks and adaptation practices

i Multi-criteria analysis of adaptation options (including cost–benefit analysis)

j Integrate high priority k Risk screening processes in adaptation options future programming

3 Applying climate risk screening: the ORCHID in evaluating current risk management and in methodology developing and prioritising adaptation options. This The climate risk management process presented process is guided by a resource person with a broad here employs a facilitated process to enable the understanding of development, disaster management development cooperation actors to assess current and climate change. and future climate risks to programmes and to develop adaptation and disaster risk reduction After initial awareness raising and sensitisation to options to manage these risks where necessary. climate change issues, the first step in the process Stressing the potential positive as well as negative compares a summary of climate trends, forecasts and impacts of climate change for poverty reduction, the impacts with the portfolio as a whole (see boxes b methodology is called ORCHID (Opportunities and and c in Figure 1). At the portfolio level, dividing Risks of Climate Change and Disasters), and was interventions by sector category produces a general developed from pilot climate risk screening exercises picture of the extent to which development of the DFID development cooperation portfolios in interventions are exposed to climate risks3 (Agrawala Bangladesh and India (Tanner et al. 2007a,b).2 2005). Low estimates include sectors in more commonly climate-sensitive activities, such as rural The steps of the ORCHID methodology are shown livelihoods or water and sanitation programmes schematically in Figure 1. It seeks to establish climate through to high estimates including disaster relief change adaptation as an ongoing process of risk and recovery and infectious disease-related health management (see box k) rather than a single discrete programmes. A snapshot of the DFID-India portfolio output, and emphasises the importance of raising in early 2007 (Table 2) suggests that a significant awareness and disseminating knowledge (box a). To proportion of the portfolio is potentially exposed to do so, it involves the active participation of climate risks. programme managers and staff in determining risks,

IDS Bulletin Volume 39 Number 4 September 2008 89 Table 2 Estimated climate risk exposure of the DFID-India portfolio

Proportion of DFID-I portfolio in climate sensitive sectors (%) Low estimate Medium estimate High estimate

National programme 0.3 0.6 29 Partner state programmes 50 54 70 Total DFID-India portfolio 26 28 49

Discussions with programme staff around the integration into the programme objectives and sensitivity of activities and objectives within individual activities, as well as how to integrate this process projects and programmes (hereby referred to as into the regular programme cycle (see boxes j and k). interventions) then determines a set of high priority interventions for which more detailed screening is An example of the results of ORCHID climate risk undertaken (see box d in Figure 1). As well as screening for some of the interventions examined in potential climate risks, there may also be pragmatic Bangladesh and India during the pilot exercises are reasons for giving particular interventions attention shown in Table 3 (pages 92–3). The table illustrates such as strong demand from partners, a past record the ‘additionality’ of the suggested adaptation of climate impacts, or clear opportunities for risk options by identifying three scenarios: climate risks reduction and adaptation. without the intervention, how the existing intervention already contributed to adaptation A more detailed set of technical inputs collated by a through risk management, and how adding resource person is then used as the basis for suggested adaptation components enables the identifying potential risks to programme objectives programme to address risks more comprehensively. and activities. This includes historic climate trends and impacts, latest knowledge on future climate trends, Both the existing risk management and additional including decadal forecasting techniques more suited activities reflect the conception of adaptation across to programme time-horizons (Wilby 2007), climate a continuum, as introduced elsewhere in this IDS vulnerability assessments where available, and Bulletin (Tanner and Mitchell, this IDS Bulletin summaries of past economic impacts (see boxes ‘Entrenchment or Enhancement’; McGray et al. e and f). 2007). This includes activities that reinforce vulnerability reduction by addressing its drivers; those Identified risks are then assessed with programme building response capacity through planning, staff against existing risk management practices and monitoring, research and assessment; managing a wide range of potential adaptation options are climate risk through infrastructure strengthening, identified for tackling unmanaged risks and exploiting adapting livelihoods strategies, strengthening opportunities for strengthening adaptive capacity operations and maintenance activities, and improving (see boxes g and h in Figure 1). These potential disaster preparedness; and moves to tackle climate options draw on existing experiences and emerging change impacts such as enhancing flood protection good practice from the disaster risk reduction and for infrastructure. adaptation communities. Guided by a resource person, a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) of adaptation As adaptation is a relatively new and emerging area options was then performed by programme staff and of work, it has been important to build the evidence partners. The MCA process involved choosing a range base regarding the economic cost-effectiveness of of decision-making criteria on which to prioritise the adaptation options (Stern 2006). While not feasible range of suggested adaptation options, including for all adaptation options due to time and data coherence with national adaptation priorities (see requirements, two examples of cost–benefit analysis box i). While not intended as a clear-cut means for (CBA) of adaptation options were included in each determining priorities for follow-up, this process of the pilot exercises. In Bangladesh, this informed stimulated an important process of discussion and the now more widespread programme of raising deliberation over possible additional activities for homesteads on earthen banks above the regular

90 Tanner Climate Risk Screening of Development Portfolios and Programmes flood-line, and offered an analysis of the cost- development cooperation (Gigli and Agrawala 2007). effectiveness of improving flood protection and Building climate risk into development assistance drainage for roads and highways. In India, the analysis requires a more involved and iterative process of studied flood protection for urban slum sanitation dialogue with development partners and embedding facilities and rainwater harvesting schemes in schools into prioritisation, implementation, monitoring and in drought-prone areas. evaluation, and reflection. As developing countries develop their own increasingly advanced adaptation The uncertainty ranges governing future climate policies and plans, these initial analyses and priorities change impacts, and therefore benefits stream can inform the future risk management process. through incremental impact reductions of proposed Supporting the ability of partner governments to changes limited the cost–benefit analysis exercises to undertake climate risk assessments will be especially physical infrastructure-based adaptation options. crucial in the context of increasing budget support to Results of these analyses are presented elsewhere government programmes and in enabling resource (Tanner et al. 2007a,b), but they are crucial in decisions for delivery of adaptation services by the demonstrating the cost-effectiveness of adaptation private as well as public sector (Vernon, this IDS options for a range of future climate, cost and benefit Bulletin). scenarios. Even under uncertain future climate scenarios, this analysis strengthens cost–benefit The climate risk screening process outlined in this analysis exercises from the disaster risk reduction article also highlights the difficulty of providing community suggesting that anticipatory investments adaptation guidance at the strategic level that to reduce risks can be an efficient use of scarce includes input from stakeholders across scales, resources (Venton and Venton 2004; Stern 2006). including programme beneficiaries. This is important given that adaptation is highly context and location 4 Lessons and challenges for pro-poor specific (Smit et al. 2000), but also to ensure that adaptation they are not developed independently of other As a guided stakeholder process, the climate risk development and poverty reduction actions and screening enabled development agency staff and processes. This implies that climate risk screening at partners to think through and act on potential programme level must be followed up in more detail climate risks and opportunities. Evaluations revealed by programme partners, such that climate risks are that this process enabled programme staff to assessed in the context of the wider range of highlight vulnerable sectors and regions, identify key vulnerabilities and risks faced by poor people. risks over different timescales, and create opportunities to develop additional activities for The greater availability of climate projection data strengthening adaptation and disaster risk reduction over vulnerability information can lead strategic level processes. Undertaking the process raised awareness exercises to conceptualise adaptation in terms of of the impacts of climate variability and change, and ‘predict and provide’, steering the process to linked adaptation and disaster risk reduction to the technical solutions that deliver an adaptation poverty reduction context rather than treating them outcome or product as a palliative managerial fix as discrete issues. It also demonstrated existing (Klein et al. 2007). The ORCHID screening pilots deficiencies in climate risk management that warrant suggest that including the best available climate attention with or without the additionality of science remains an important driver for climate change impacts. Quantified data on costs contextualising current climate variability. However, and benefits of adaptation options added weight to the generation of forecasts and impacts information this argument and therefore to the growing needs greater orientation towards the variety of evidence base around the allocation of resources to needs of both programming cycles and poor people adaptation and disaster risk reduction. (Wilby 2007; Challinor, and Suarez et al., this IDS Bulletin) and that this needs to be matched with far The lessons and experience of the pilot screening, greater attention to vulnerability assessments. undertaken as a snapshot of development portfolio activity, also permit reflection on how to integrate Available climate vulnerability data remains such risk assessment processes into the regular predominantly focused on the nature of hazards and programme cycle and ensure coherence with other the receiving ecosystems. In contrast, the ability to

IDS Bulletin Volume 39 Number 4 September 2008 91 DI-agaeh xouet iebn Esr iesfcto n nepieatvte r cendfrterclimate- their Ensure diversification and enterprise activities are screened for communities on the Chars through assets public infr Extending flood-proofing activities to public exposure to riverbank for services Improving access to basic Risks to household and (DFID-Bangladesh) Programme Chars Livelihoods erdciead aaet nrsrcue oseigaiiyo ainl ikmpigo health facilities in vulnerable areas Risk mapping of policymakers about c Sensitisation programmes for national needs and reduce maternal communication networks national Damage to infrastructure,Bolstering ability of healthcare programme to meet Phase II (DFID-India) supplies, drinking water Child Health Programme Reproductive and in programme beneficia Include climate sensitivity as a factor natural resources Integrate climate risk management into training shocks through resilience to climatic Enabling communities to build income diversification climate and expansion in sectors events High risks from extreme (DFID-India) directly dependent on Decentralisation Rural Strengthening of Programme on West Bengal nepieGot eteeeet, iatr mat n ikmngmn o regulatory bodies in the enterprise disasters and risk management for impacts guidelines on climate change and Improving awareness and development of (e.g. Bangladesh Investment Climate Fund (BICF) sector Improved resilience through industrial agglomeration in enterprise zones cyclones 1and storm zones especially floods, enterprise operational procedures for extreme Design events, and maintenance plans to infrastructure include climate risk from (DFID-Bangladesh) Improved infrastructure, planning and Programme (RISE) Damage and disruption to private sector Enterprise Growth Improvement for Investment Systems Regulatory and iko pdmcotrasqu sensitivity and build in risk management adaptation where approp Climate-resilient livelihood promotion erosion and flooding outbreaks epidemic risk of pedo iessad ovrec ihohrprogrammes, including sanitation and provision of Convergence with other and potential impacts climate change impacts and infant mortality rates diseases and Spread of supply and power surges local environment flood level banks above the 10-year h asn fhmsed nomd activities homesteads onto mud The raising of compensation schemes Promote long-term adaptation by facilitating migration and remittances mobile identification cards, and flood rearing,activities including poultry enterprise zone development on the Environmental impact assessment of Develop state and district level climate vulnerability atlas to target interventions nert iatrmanagement within local development action plans Integrate disaster local development plans Vulnerability and adaptation assessment guidance for Incorporate climate issues into training, dissemination and awareness-raising ality drinking water modules astructure on the Chars limate-related health assessments and regulatory bodies) ry targetingry riate

92 Tanner Climate Risk Screening of Development Portfolios and Programmes h orPormeDvlpasailadtmoa aaaefrwtrquality surveillance water Develop a spatial and temporal database for Enabling urban local bodies to develop Integrate climate risk management in urban planning systems drainage system supplies and existing water Programme ‘Plus’ Operation and maintenance of supplies water contamination of (DFID-India) Programme adaptation provided by the the Poor Health risks due to for Urban Services Urban flooding Madhya Pradesh With Programme Programme/ Poor the for Services without Kolkata Urban No Programme Interventions Scenario Table 3 cope with and respond to climate shocks depends on a wide range of factors in relation not only to the

Strengthening adaptation through risk management: Examples of DFID interventions in India and Bangladesh nature of shocks but also the characteristics of a population and assets people possess, and the dynamic processes governing exposure, sensitivity and responses to climate impacts (Chambers 1989; O’Brien et al. 2004). There remains an urgent requirement for improved assessments of such social e lmt ik –eitn ikmngmn n – additional adaptation options as prioritised by MCA – existing risk management and – key climate risks nevninintervention intervention vulnerability to climate shocks and stresses, undertaken in parallel with historic and projected impacts data to permit cross-comparison of data- sets and the development of dynamic vulnerability baselines to evaluate progress (Adger 2006; Stephen and Downing 2001; Thomalla et al. 2006; Hedger et al., this IDS Bulletin). n olwevrnetlsadrsTcl lo mat yriigpit eesadbte nuaino toilet pits insulation of Tackle by raising flood impacts plinth levels and better and follow environmental standards In-situ o sanitation and drinking water for Understanding vulnerability in the context of poverty requires a more process-based conception of lmugaigSrnte prto n aneac ciiiswt eidcmonitoring and Strengthen operation and maintenance activities with periodic slum upgrading adaptation where trial and error, and learning and reflection are key factors. In enabling adaptation that secures poverty reduction outcomes, a process-based approach is more likely to highlight and tackle the underlying causes of vulnerability to climate change and foreground issues of equity and justice. Methodological debates around adaptation practice in a development context are likely to continue as experience evolves, particularly through development and sharing of adaptation tools and approaches

evaluation among the development community (OECD 2006; Tanner and Guenther 2007; IISD 2008). Placing the multidimensional livelihood strategies and adaptation needs of poor people at the centre of these efforts will be crucial to sustaining poverty reduction in a changing climate.

IDS Bulletin Volume 39 Number 4 September 2008 93 Notes 3 This approach follows an OECD methodology and 1 Fiduciary risk refers to risks where funds are not operates on the premise that development used for the intended purposes, do not achieve activities in sectors relating to water resources, value for money, or are not properly accounted infectious diseases, or natural resources are more for (DFID 2004). likely to be affected by present day climate 2 More information and links to reports on variability and weather extremes, and ORCHID climate risk screening pilots are available consequently also by changing climatic conditions. at www.ids.ac.uk/climatechange/orchid. Hybrid Those relating to financial reform, civil society versions of the methodology have been tailored capacity building, gender equality, human rights or for similar climate risk screening exercises in governance reform for example, are much less Kenya and China (Tanner et al. 2008). Many thanks likely to be directly affected by climatic to Yvan Biot for support and constructive circumstances (Agrawala 2005). comments on the ORCHID pilots that have been incorporated in this article.

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