Climate Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Sustainable and Climate-Resilient Connectivity Project (RRP NAU 48480-003) Climate Change Assessment Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment December 2017 Nauru: Sustainable and Climate-Resilient Connectivity Project ii Glossary and Abbreviations Term Definition Adaptation Changes made in response to the likely threats and opportunities arising from climate variability and climate change. ADB Asian Development Bank ARI Average Recurrence Interval Asset(s) Something that has potential or actual value to an organization. BOM Australian Bureau of Meteorology BOS Nauru Bureau of Statistics Climate Average weather based on the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities, such as temperature, precipitation and wind, over an extended period of time. Climate change A statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). Climate change Difference between a climate scenario and the current climate. scenario CO2 Carbon Dioxide Consequence Outcome of an event affecting objectives. Consequences can be certain or uncertain and can have positive or negative effects. May be expressed quantitatively or qualitatively. CSIRO Australian Government Commonwealth Scientific Industrial and Research Organisation EEZ Economic Exclusive Zone ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation GHG Greenhouse gas HAT Highest Astronomical Tide HRWL Highest Recorded Water Level Impact A threat or an opportunity that may arise as a result of either the weather or climate change both in the short and long term, and represents the fact that the issue is one that is constantly evolving. Infrastructure Assets and systems of assets that support our society. NOTE: This includes buildings, open space systems, public domain areas and associated landscape infrastructure, and transport, water, power and communications assets. IPCC AR5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report LAT Lowest Astronomical Tide Level of risk Magnitude of a risk or combination of risks, expressed in terms of the combination of consequences and their likelihood. Life cycle Time interval that commences with the identification of the need for an asset and terminates with the decommissioning of the asset or any associated liabilities. Likelihood Chance of something happening. NOTE: In risk management terminology, the word ‘likelihood’ is used to refer to the chance of something happening, whether defined, measured or determined objectively or subjectively, qualitatively or quantitatively, and described using general terms or mathematically (such as a probability or a frequency over a given time period). iii Term Definition LWRL Lowest Recorded Water Level MHWN Mean High Water Neap MHWS Mean High Water Springs MJO Madden-Julian Oscillation Mitigation Reducing causes of climate change. MLWN Mean Low Water Neap MLWS Mean Low Water Springs Monitoring Continual checking, supervising, critically observing or determining the status in order to identify change from the performance level required or expected. MSL Mean Sea Level NCD Nauru Chart Datum NSDS National Sustainable Development Strategy PAN Port Authority of Nauru PCCSPP Pacific Climate Change Science Partnership Program ppm Parts per million PPTA Project Preparatory Technical Assistance QPA Qualified project activities RCP Representative Concentration Pathway Residual risk Risk remaining after risk treatment. Resilience Adaptive capacity of an organisation to a copmlex and changing environment. Risk Effect of uncertainty on objectives. Risk analysis Process to comprehend the nature of risk and to determine the level of risk. Risk assessment Overall process of risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation. Risk management Coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk. Risk management Set of components that provides the foundations and organizational arrangements for framework designing, implementing, monitoring, reviewing and continually improving risk management throughout the organization. SOI Southern Oscillation Index SPCZ South Pacific Convergence Zone Vulnerability Degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. iv Table of Contents 1 Introduction 1 1.2 Scope of this Report 1 2 Background and Project Context 3 2.1 Existing Port Infrastructure and Operations 3 2.1.1 Existing Port Infrastructure 3 2.1.2 Operability of the Existing Port 3 2.2 Design Philosophy for the New Port 4 2.3 Description of the Proposed Port 4 2.4 Policy Context 5 2.4.1 National Sustainable Development Strategy 2005-2025 5 2.4.2 Framework for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction (RONAdapt) 5 2.4.3 Nauru National Disaster Risk Management Plan 2008 6 3 Approach to the CRVA 7 3.1 Requirement for the CRVA 7 3.2 Overarching Methodology 8 3.3 Inputs to the CRVA 8 3.4 Limitations 9 4 Climate and Other Natural Hazards 10 4.1 Regional Drivers of Climate 10 4.1.1 South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) 10 4.1.2 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 10 4.1.3 West Pacific Monsoon 11 4.2 Existing Climate 11 4.2.1 Temperature 11 4.2.2 Rainfall 12 4.2.3 Extreme Weather 12 4.2.4 Mean Sea Level 12 4.2.5 Coastal Processes 14 4.3 Climate Change Projections 17 4.3.1 Review of Scenarios 17 4.3.2 Temperature 18 4.3.3 Rainfall 18 4.3.4 Extreme Weather 19 4.3.5 Mean Sea Level 19 4.3.6 Coastal Processes 20 4.3.7 Ocean Acidity 23 4.4 Other Natural Hazards 23 4.5 Summary of Relevant Climate Change Hazards 24 5 Vulnerability to Climate Risks and Risk Assessment 25 5.1 Initial Screening and Vulnerability Assessment 25 5.1.2 Strategic Measures to Improve Climate Resilience 27 v 5.1.3 Specific Design Elements to Improve Climate Resilience 27 5.2 Risk Assessment Framework 27 5.3 Assessment of Climate Risk to the Port 30 5.3.1 Existing Port 30 5.3.2 Proposed Port 32 5.4 Review of Measures Adopted for the Climate Change Adaptation 34 5.5 Assessment of Residual Risk 35 5.6 Cost of Climate-Reslience Measures 37 5.6.1 Cost of Strategic Mesaures 37 5.6.2 Cost of Specific Measures 37 5.6.3 Total Cost of Climate Resilience 38 6 Key Findings and Next Steps 39 6.1 Need for the Project 39 6.2 Existing and Future Climate Risks 39 6.3 Climate-Resilient Measures 39 6.4 Opportunities for Improved Resilience and Sustainability 40 6.4.1 Design Options 40 6.4.2 Other Options 40 6.5 Assumptions and Limitations of the CRVA 41 7 References 42 Tables Table 2-1 Number of Days of Port Operation Lost to Heavy Weather 4 Table 4-1 Nauru Tidal planes 13 Table 4-2 Sea Level Rise Projections in centimetres showing 5-95% confidence interval in brackets 20 Table 4-3 Wave Projections Summary for Nauru Relative to a 1986-2005 Historical Period 22 Table 4-4 Design Criteria for the Port and Allowances for Climate Change 24 Table 5-1 Initial Screening and Vulnerability Assessment for the Port 25 Table 5-2 Likelihood of Risk 27 Table 5-3 Consequence of Risk 29 Table 5-4 Risk Assessment Matrix 30 Table 5-5 Risk Assessment Findings – Existing Port 31 Table 5-6 Risk Assessment Findings – Proposed Port 32 Table 5-7 Potential Adaptation Measures 34 Table 5-8 Assessment of Residual Risk following Application of Adaptation Measures 36 Table 5-9 Potential Adaptation Measures 37 vi Figures Figure 1-1 Nauru, with inset of Nauru Port 1 Figure 3-1 Climate risk management process 7 Figure 4-1 Average Positions of the Major climate Features in November to April 10 Figure 4-2 Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature for Nauru 11 Figure 4-3 Annual Rainfall for Nauru 12 Figure 4-4 SEAFRAME tide gauge system on Nauru Error! Bookmark not defined. Figure 4-5 Monthly maximum sea-level (hourly values) from the Nauru SEAFRAME tide gauge Error! Bookmark not defined. Figure 4-6 Mean Annual Cycle of Wave Height ( 15 Figure 4-7 Wave Rose for Significant Wave Heights Exceeding Two Metres 16 Figure 4-8 Global monthly mean CO2 concentrations as at July 2016 18 Figure 4-9 Sea Level Rise Projections for Nauru 20 Figure 4-10 Projected Future Wave Climate for Nauru 21 Sustainable and Climate-Resilient Connectivity Project (RRP NAU 48480-003) 1 1 Introduction The Government of the Republic of Nauru (the government) has requested the assistance of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for a project preparatory technical assistance (PPTA) for preparing a project to improve the port facilities and operations at Aiwo (refer Figure 1-1). The scope of the project includes the construction of a wharf for berthing vessels and a breakwater, a berth pocket, an approach causeway from shore to wharf, demolition and safe removal of existing derelict port buildings and their replacement with new buildings, secure fencing and a heavy-duty industrial pavement in a container storage yard. The project will also include capacity building and institutional strengthening of Port Authority of Nauru (PAN) to enhance the efficiency of port operations, port security, asset management, occupational health and safety, and various reforms including tariff re-structuring. The aim of the project is to provide Nauru with a port that minimizes downtime due to weather, removes dependence on time-consuming and dangerous at-sea cargo transfers, reduces freight costs through lower demurrage and faster turnaround for container and general cargo vessels, and provides a more reliable transfer of fuels to the island. Figure 1-1 Nauru and Nauru Port Figure 1-2 Source: NearMap, 2016 1.2 Scope of this Report The ADB has committed to assisting its developing member countries in climate proofing projects (including those financed by ADB) to ensure their outcomes are not compromised by climate change and variability or by natural hazards in general.

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