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Report 17: Adapting to Climate Change: Methods and Tools For CLIMATE SERVICE CENTER CSC Report 17 Adapting to Climate Change: Methods and Tools for Climate Risk Management Cover: © Martina Topf/fotolia Citation: Bowyer, P., Bender, S., Rechid, D., Schaller, M. (2014): Adapting to Climate Change: Methods and Tools for Climate Risk Management, Climate Service Center, Germany, 124 pages Version: first order draft, May 2014 Adapting to Climate Change: Methods and Tools for Climate Risk Management Author team Main author Paul Bowyer, Climate Service Center, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany Contributing authors Steffen Bender, Climate Service Center, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany Diana Rechid, Climate Service Center, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany Michaela Schaller, Climate Service Center, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany Project team Paul Bowyer, Climate Service Center, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany Steffen Bender, Climate Service Center, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany Diana Rechid, Climate Service Center, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany Michaela Schaller, Climate Service Center, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany María Máñez Costa, Climate Service Center, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany Sandra Pingel, Climate Service Center, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany Adaptation to Climate Change: Methods and Tools for Climate Risk Management Copyright permissions Figure 4.2 Republished with permission of the American Meteorological Society, from The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions, Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 2009, permission conveyed through Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. Figure 4.5 is reproduced from the ENSEMBLES EU-funded FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES (Contract number 505539). Figure 5.1 Republished with permission of Elsevier Inc., from Identifying and evaluating robust adaptive policy responses to climate change for water management agencies in the American west, Lempert, R.J., and Groves, D.G., Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 77, 2010, permission conveyed through Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. Figure A1.2 Republished with permission of Nature Publishing Group, from Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections, Knutti, R., and Sedlacek, J, Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1716, 2012, permission conveyed through Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. Figure A2.1 Republished with permission of Elsevier Inc., from Identifying and evaluating robust adaptive policy responses to climate change for water management agencies in the American west, Lempert, R.J., and Groves, D.G., Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 77, 2010, permission conveyed through Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. Figure A2.2 Republished with permission of Blackwell Publishing Inc., from Using Expert Judgments to Explore Robust Alternatives for Forest Management under Climate Change, McDaniels, T., et al., Risk Analysis, 32, 2012, permission conveyed through Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. Figure A2.3 Republished with permission of Blackwell Publishing Inc., from Using Expert Judgments to Explore Robust Alternatives for Forest Management under Climate Change, McDaniels, T., et al., Risk Analysis, 32, 2012, permission conveyed through Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. 3 Adaptation to Climate Change: Methods and Tools for Climate Risk Management Table of Contents PREFACE.............................................................................................................................................. 11 CHAPTER ROUTEFINDER .................................................................................................................. 12 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................... 13 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 21 1.1 RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE .............................................................................................. 21 1.2 ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE .......................................................................... 22 1.2.1 Adaptation as risk management ...................................................................................... 23 1.2.2 Approaches to adaptation: “top-down” or “bottom-up”? .................................................. 26 1.3 CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE IMPACTS AND CLIMATE-RELATED EVENTS ............................................ 26 1.4 MAKING THE CASE FOR ADAPTATION ............................................................................................ 30 1.5 ABOUT THE GUIDEBOOK .............................................................................................................. 32 1.5.1 What is the purpose of this guidebook? .......................................................................... 32 1.5.2 Aim and objectives of the guidebook ............................................................................... 33 1.5.3 Who is it written for? ........................................................................................................ 33 1.5.4 Structure of the guidebook ............................................................................................... 34 2 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: 20 QUESTIONS .......................................................... 35 2.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 35 2.2 20 QUESTIONS ............................................................................................................................ 35 2.2.1 What is adaptation to climate change and variability? .................................................... 35 2.2.2 What are we adapting to? ................................................................................................ 36 2.2.3 Are there different kinds of adaptation? ........................................................................... 37 2.2.4 How are we able to adapt? .............................................................................................. 38 2.2.5 How do I know if my organisation needs to adapt? ......................................................... 39 2.2.6 When does my organisation need to start thinking about adaptation?............................ 41 2.2.7 How soon might my organisation need to take action? ................................................... 42 2.2.8 What are the sources of uncertainty in adaptation decision making? ............................. 43 2.2.9 Is there anything new about adapting to climate change? .............................................. 43 2.2.10 What does my organisation need to know or do to make progress with adaptation? . 44 2.2.11 How can an evidence base for informing adaptation planning be generated? ........... 44 2.2.12 How do I know what my adaptation strategy options are? .......................................... 44 2.2.13 Do I need to involve other people in adaptation planning? ......................................... 45 2.2.14 Are there limits to adaptation? ..................................................................................... 46 2.2.15 Are there barriers to adaptation? ................................................................................. 46 2.2.16 Is adaptation something my organisation only need do once? ................................... 47 2.2.17 How much is adaptation going to cost?....................................................................... 47 2.2.18 Is it possible to characterise different kinds of adaptation actions or decisions? ........ 47 2.2.19 How do I know if an adaptation strategy will be successful? ...................................... 48 2.2.20 How can I get started with adaptation? ....................................................................... 49 2.3 CHAPTER SUMMARY .................................................................................................................... 50 3 ADAPTATION AS CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT .................................................................. 51 3.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 51 3.2 WHAT IS RISK AND THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS? .................................................................. 52 3.3 WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS OF A RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACH? .................................................... 53 3.4 STAGES OF THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS .............................................................................. 56 3.4.1 Communication and consultation..................................................................................... 57 3.4.2 Establish the context ........................................................................................................ 57 3.4.3 Risk assessment .............................................................................................................. 58 3.4.3.1 Risk identification .................................................................................................... 58 3.4.3.2 Risk analysis ........................................................................................................... 59 3.4.3.3 Risk evaluation ........................................................................................................ 60 3.4.4 Risk
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