An Examination of Alberta's Minimum Wage
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University of Calgary PRISM: University of Calgary's Digital Repository Graduate Studies Master of Public Policy Capstone Projects 2018-08-30 An Examination of Alberta’s Minimum Wage Kosiorek, Keyli Kosiorek, K. (2018). An Examination of Alberta’s Minimum Wage (Unpublished master's project). University of Calgary, Calgary, AB. http://hdl.handle.net/1880/109307 master thesis Downloaded from PRISM: https://prism.ucalgary.ca MASTER OF PUBLIC POLICY CAPSTONE PROJECT An Examination of Alberta’s Minimum Wage Submitted by: Keyli Kosiorek Approved by Supervisor: Trevor Tombe Submitted in fulfillment of the requirements of PPOL 623 and completion of the requirements for the Master of Public Policy degree. [ i ] Acknowledgements I would like to express my gratitude to my supervisor Dr. Trevor Tombe for sharing his wealth of knowledge and providing me with guidanCe and support throughout my Capstone proCess. I appreCiate you aCCommodating our last-minute meetings from aCross the Country and province, your critical feedback, and the time you spent supporting me in other endeavors. Your sinCere desire for me to suCCeed has not gone unnotiCed, thank you. Thank you to my MPP Classmates. This year Could not have been the same without all of you, our inside jokes, and our nights out after exams. I wish you all the best in the future and I look forward to our continued friendship. Thank you to the School of Public Policy faculty for providing our class with the tools we required to Complete the program and our Capstone projeCts and help us advance our Careers in policy work. I am so glad I made the ChoiCe to pursue the MPP program. Matthew, thank you for editing all my papers this year, taking me out for iCe Cream when things got tough, and always being my best friend. Most importantly, a heartfelt thank you goes out to parents. Words Cannot begin to desCribe the overwhelming gratitude I feel for the Constant enCouragement and love you give me. Thank you for instilling in me a strong passion for learning that has brought me to where I am today. “Sometimes I’ll start a sentenCe and I don’t even know where it is going. I just hope to find it along the way”. – Michael Scott [ iii ] Table of Contents IntroduCtion ................................................................................................................................................... 1 Minimum Wage BaCkground ........................................................................................................................ 5 The Minimum Wage & It’s Purpose ...................................................................................................... 5 Minimum Wage in Canada ................................................................................................................... 5 Alberta’s Minimum Wage over Time .................................................................................................... 8 Who earns the minimum wage in Alberta? .......................................................................................... 9 Proposed Changes to Alberta’s Minimum Wage .............................................................................. 11 Saskatchewan: Minimum Wage Indexed to CPI ................................................................................ 11 EconomiC Theory ........................................................................................................................................ 12 Minimum Wage in a Competitive Labour Market ............................................................................. 12 ElastiCity of Demand .......................................................................................................................... 16 Literature Review ....................................................................................................................................... 20 The New Jersey Minimum Wage Study ............................................................................................. 21 Canadian Studies: 1979-2005 ............................................................................................................ 22 Non-Canadian Studies on Minimum Wage and Employment .......................................................... 25 Canadian Studies: 2005-today ........................................................................................................... 25 The Effect of Minimum Wage on Labour Market Flows ................................................................... 27 Minimum Wage and Poverty ............................................................................................................. 29 EmpiriCal Model ......................................................................................................................................... 29 Data and Methodology .............................................................................................................................. 30 Results ........................................................................................................................................................ 32 DisCussion ................................................................................................................................................... 34 The Cost of the Minimum Wage ........................................................................................................ 34 Alternative Anti-Poverty PoliCies ....................................................................................................... 35 Alberta and the $15 Minimum Wage ................................................................................................ 37 [ v ] ConClusion .................................................................................................................................................. 38 PoliCy Recommendations ................................................................................................................... 38 Bibliography ................................................................................................................................................ 40 Appendix A ................................................................................................................................................. 47 [ v ] Executive Summary Throughout its history, the minimum wage has always been a Controversial poliCy. PolitiCians, eConomists, businesses and Citizens are continually engaged in debates over its effeCtiveness and its unintended ConsequenCes. Initially designed to proteCt workers from exploitation, the minimum wage has been gaining popularity as an anti-poverty tool. In fact, in recent history there has been a $15 minimum wage movement taking plaCe aCross North AmeriCa that aims to put more money into the poCkets of those in need and thus reduCe poverty. In 2015, under the newly eleCted NDP government, the Government of Alberta implemented the $15 minimum wage poliCy. Their plan to reach $15 Consisted of a 47% inCrease of the minimum wage in just 3 years. Alberta was the first provinCe in Canada to implement suCh a poliCy, but sinCe then, Ontario and British Colombia have followed in their footsteps. There is an abundanCe of researCh on the minimum wage from both the US and Canada, muCh of whiCh is foCused on the impaCt of the minimum wage on employment. While researChers have not reaChed a Consensus on the magnitude of the effeCts, most agree that inCreasing the minimum wage has a negative impaCt on employment, espeCially for low-skilled workers and youth. While the research is plentiful, there have been no studies that have [ vi ] examined the impaCt of the $15 minimum wage movement on employment. Additionally, there has been no study that has looked at Alberta speCifically. This paper adds to the existing literature by analyzing the impaCt that a rapidly inCreasing minimum wage has had on employment and unemployment in Alberta. To understand the effects of Alberta’s inCreasing minimum wage on employment and unemployment, I used a natural/observation study of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Alberta was the treatment group in my study beCause its minimum wage inCreased signifiCantly starting in 2015. Saskatchewan was the natural Control group in my study beCause they did not inCrease their minimum wage arbitrarily and only adjusted it slightly eaCh year for inflation. BeCause the two provinCes are so similar in many ways including industry, political landscape, Saskatchewan’s data beCame the baseline measure of the experiment. Thus, any Changes in Alberta’s employment rates that were not seen in SaskatChewan Could attributed to the inCrease in minimum wage that Alberta experienCed. For my study I used pooled time-series data ColleCted from the Canadian Labour ForCe Survey to Compare the two provinCes in a regression analysis. The analyses were run on four different age groups: 15+, 15-24, 25-54 and 55+. The results from my empiriCal analysis were consistent with previous literature with Coefficients for the employment rate between -0.068 and -0.434 for the period between 1997 and 2017 in Alberta. I also found coefficients for the unemployment rate between 1.064 and 2.327 in the same time period. These results indicate that the inCrease in the minimum wage in Alberta resulted in a reduCtion in the employment rate and an inCrease in the unemployment rate. [ vi ] In addition to this empiriCal analysis, I looked at the cost of Alberta’s minimum wage increases since 2015. I calculated