UNIVERZITET U SARAJEVU FAKULTET POLITIČKIH NAUKA ODSJEK POLITOLOGIJA USMJERENJE: MEĐUNARODNI ODNOSI I DIPLOMATIJA ELITE INFLUENCE ON REGIME DURABILITY IN SYRIA AND LEBANON Magistarski rad Kandidat: Mentor: prof.dr. Damir Kenan Kadić . Kapidžić Broj indeksa: 1027/II-PIR Sarajevo, juni 2020. UNIVERZITET U SARAJEVU FAKULTET POLITIČKIH NAUKA ODSJEK POLITOLOGIJA USMJERENJE: MEĐUNARODNI ODNOSI I DIPLOMATIJA ELITE INFLUENCE ON REGIME DURABILITY IN SYRIA AND LEBANON Magistarski rad Kandidat: Mentor: prof.dr. Damir Kenan Kadić . Kapidžić Broj indeksa: 1027/II-PIR Sarajevo, juni 2020. Table of contents List of Abbreviations .................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1 1. Methodology section ........................................................................................................... 6 1.1. Mapping the thesis ....................................................................................................... 7 2. Elites and elite theory .......................................................................................................... 8 2.1. Elite integration and typologies ................................................................................. 12 2.2. Research methods for exploring elites ....................................................................... 13 2.3. Background and attributes of political elites .............................................................. 14 2.4. Political elites in the Middle East............................................................................... 16 2.5. Politically relevant elite (PRE)................................................................................... 17 3. Regime durability .............................................................................................................. 18 4. Lebanon in historical and geographical perspective .......................................................... 23 4.1. Confessional composition of Lebanon ....................................................................... 27 4.2. Maronite Christians .................................................................................................... 30 4.3. The Druzes ................................................................................................................. 32 4.4. Lebanese Shi'a and Sunni Muslims ............................................................................ 33 4.5. Armenians, Greek Orthodox/Catholic and other smaller officially recognized sects 34 5. Political system of Lebanon .............................................................................................. 36 5.1. The 1926 constitution and the 1943 National Pact provisions ................................... 36 5.2. Lebanese consociationalism and the role of elites ..................................................... 37 5.3. Political parties in Lebanon........................................................................................ 41 6. Lebanese elites .................................................................................................................. 43 6.1. Elections and elites .................................................................................................... 43 6.2. Types of Lebanese elites ............................................................................................ 47 7. Historical and geographical background of Syria ............................................................. 56 7.1. Geography of Syria .................................................................................................... 56 7.2. History of Syria .......................................................................................................... 57 8. Political system of Syria from independence until the 1970 „Corrective Movement“ ...... 62 8.1. The era of military coups ........................................................................................... 63 8.2. Post-2011 Syria: A brief overview ............................................................................ 67 9. Syrian elites ....................................................................................................................... 69 9.1. Changes in elite circles during Bashar al-Assad's presidency .................................... 73 10. Elite influence on regime durability in Syria and Lebanon ........................................... 76 10.1. Syrian business elite: emergence and stratification ................................................ 76 10.2. Is religious elite cooptation underestimated? ......................................................... 80 10.3. Military elites and militarization as backbones of Assad's regimes ....................... 82 10.4. Lebanese elites between domestic and international affairs ................................... 85 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 91 References ................................................................................................................................ 97 List of Abbreviations CEO – Chief executive officer FH – Freedom House FM – Future Movement FPM – Free Patriotic Movement ISIS – Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant LAF – Lebanese Armed Forces LCP – Lebanese Communist Party LF – Lebanese Forces MB – Muslim Brotherhood MP – Member of Parliament PLO – Palestine Liberation Organization PSP - Progressive Socialist Party SSNP - Syrian Social Nationalist Party UAR – United Arab Republic UK – United Kingdom UN – United Nations UNSC – United Nation Security Council USA – United States of America USSR – Union of Soviet Socialist Republics Introduction This thesis has the aim to provide an explanation of how do various types of elites in Syria and Lebanon influence the durability of their regimes over a specific period of time which, in the case of Syria, includes the period from 1970 which marks the ascendance of Hafez al-Assad to power and in the case of Lebanon the period from the Taif Agreement in 1989 onwards. As of theory, a significant amount of literature encompassing both classical and modern elitists will be analyzed especially in relation to our case studies. Starting with early elite works of Gaetano Mosca and Vilfredo Pareto, one should see the underlying notion of elite inevitability stressing that societies and states were in fact always driven by certain, discernible elites that only reproduced themselves over time through their ability to adapt to major changes in the particular political system. Having in mind the complexities associated with ruling a society and major developments that the „state“ as such undertook throughout history, one could see that elites are not monolithic blocs equal in size but differentiated minorities that are on top of a specific aspect of society's life be it the economy, military or high politics. Elites are further differentiated internally whereby some may have specific characteristics such as wealth or noble roots that allocates them greater importance in terms of decision making while others, like the military elite, might acquire this importance through violent means through revolutions and uprisings that replace the old elites or simply their natural position as the guardian of a regime that cannot risk losing the foundational pillar of its rule. Here we see that interests play a major role when it comes to elite formation since it is easier for them to rule effectively if their interests converge as well as if their formation process was identical (coming from noble or wealthy families). Major historical events and policies like wars, colonialism and imperialism greatly shape elites' composition and interests especially in our case studies, both of which situated in the Middle East, a region that throughout its history underwent significant changes that shaped its outlook as we know it today. In the Middle East, it was the high differentiation of societies, multiple value systems, wars coupled with foreign intervention through the lens of colonialism and imperialism that shaped their elites whose present outlook and behavior (for instance, anti-Americanism) is greatly influenced by these historical experiences. The other theoretical pillar are works on regime durability which is often part of larger studies about democratization and authoritarianism which is helpful since it helps one to delineate and situate regime durability in theory. 1 The starting points included in this field include definitions of regime and durability and the assumption that the main goal or incentive of an autocrat is to stay as long as possible in power. We will outline variables like economic development, degree of popular discontent with the regime as well as institutions to show in our case studies how each of them relates to regime durability. A particular set of conditions exists in every authoritarian system that leaders employ to effectively rule and it includes ways of acquiring legitimacy, degree of regime institutionalization, strategies of cooptation and repression as well as kinship and clientelism, both of which common to both Syria and Lebanon. One of the most significant contributions in this part includes the typology by Geddes (1999) of nondemocratic regime types