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Polsinelli-2020-Election-Report.Pdf Election Report 2020 November 8, 2020 OVERVIEW OF ELECTION RESULTS 2020 ELECTION REPORT // POLSINELLI Overview Table of Contents Polsinelli congratulates President-elect Joe Biden and Vice Overview of Election Results President-elect Kamala Harris on their election and takes particular note of the fact that Senator Harris is the first President 3 woman ever elected as Vice President. It was a hard-fought election with President Donald Trump and Vice President Senate 4 Mike Pence retaining strong support from almost half of the American electorate as both tickets received record House 6 numbers of votes. A common refrain from voters before an election is, “I can’t Governors 7 wait for it to be over.” This year, in the midst of the pandemic and non-stop political ads, the process may have seemed Lame Duck Outlook 8 interminable and it is not completely over yet. Election Day voting has been completed, and the winners have been Areas to Watch in the 117th Congress named by major news organizations, but the counting and legal challenges persist. In addition, two special elections will Economy 10 be held in Georgia with nationwide consequences as they will determine control of the U.S. Senate. In this circumstance, Healthcare 12 there are many uncertainties. This report examines current Infrastructure 13 election outcomes and will be regularly updated to keep you abreast of important new developments. Energy and Environment 13 In addition to the results, we will report on the agendas and policies of those who will guide our nation for the next four Congressional Procedures 15 years, as it’s not only the policymakers who have important decisions to make. We hope this report will provide a Conclusion 16 framework to understand how Washington will impact you, your community, business, customers, organization,or members. We provide insights on a range of key issues that will occupy Washington with a new administration and Congress, and take a look at what the new policymaking environment means for your priorities. If there are special topics or questions you would like us to address or with which you need our assistance, please contact us. We have a bipartisan Public Policy group in Washington and attorneys who are substantive policy experts in 22 cities devoted to helping you successfully engage Washington’s decision-makers. With our appreciation for your support, Former Congressman Former Congressman Alan Wheat (D-MO) John Shadegg (R-AZ) polsinelli.com | 2 OVERVIEW OF ELECTION RESULTS 2020 ELECTION REPORT // POLSINELLI White House Democrats hoped that a broad repudiation of President Trump and his policies, including management of the coronavirus pandemic and the economy, would produce landslide victories. Public opinion polls seemed united in suggesting this possible outcome, but the 2020 Presidential race was much closer than polls predicted. While the expected “Blue Wave” failed to materialize on election night, President-elect Joe Biden will be inaugurated as our country’s next President in January. Turning the electorate from red to blue in several states that helped elect President Trump in 2016 propelled the former Vice President to victory. In 2016, President Trump won the traditionally Democratic states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania by a total of 77,000 votes. As counting continues, President-elect Biden appears to have won all three states, as well as notching key wins in Minnesota, Nevada, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. In addition, President-elect Biden appears to have flipped traditionally Republican Arizona and Georgia. His electoral vote count could reach 306 if all these states remain in his column when the vote counts are completed. Although it carries no legal significance, President-elect Biden also won the popular vote by a greater margin than the 2.1% net of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton four years ago. At age 77, the former Vice President is the oldest President ever elected. America’s 46th President will take the oath of office on January 20 with a goal of bridging the stark divide in the American electorate. Senator Kamala Harris will become the first woman to take office as Vice President. However, assuming Democrats are unable to capture the Senate majority, they may have to scale back their most ambitious plans to fight climate change, expand the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and Medicare benefits, respond to the pandemic, roll back President Trump’s tax cuts, and institute Senate rules changes. 2020 GENERAL ELECTION ELECTORAL VOTES (Nov 8, 2020) 279 214 45 UNDECIDED polsinelli.com | 3 OVERVIEW OF ELECTION RESULTS 2020 ELECTION REPORT // POLSINELLI Senate/House/Governors In addition to President-elect Biden’s knowledge of how to move the levers of government in the executive branch, he brings nearly 40 years of legislative experience to the job. The former Vice President often speaks with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). Their staffs are in regular contact and are laying the groundwork to advance the Democratic agenda. U.S. Senate The chances of Democrats taking control of the Senate were greatly diminished after several vulnerable Republican incumbents successfully won reelection. Although a handful of Senate races are still too close to call, control of the Senate will not be determined until January, as both Georgia Senate races are heading for a January 5 runoff election. The battle for the Senate was fierce for months because control of the chamber is a crucial factor in advancing the Democratic policy agenda. U.S. Senate Election Results 2020 (Nov 8, 2020) UNCALLED 48 4 48 polsinelli.com | 4 OVERVIEW OF ELECTION RESULTS 2020 ELECTION REPORT // POLSINELLI Democrats entered Tuesday with one of the most favorable Senate maps in years. Twelve Democratic-held seats were up for election, while Republicans were defending 23 seats. Democrats needed to flip a net of three Republican-held seats to claim a majority in the Senate, with Vice President Harris providing a tie-breaking vote. Despite the favorable landscape, Democratic challengers fell short in closely watched races in Maine, Iowa, and Montana, and currently trail in North Carolina and Alaska. Democratic challengers did successfully unseat incumbents in Arizona and Colorado but lost a seat in Alabama. Both of the Georgia Senate seats are headed to a January 5 runoff since no candidate reached 50%. In one race, Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler will face off against Raphael Warnock to fill the remainder of Senator Johnny Isakson’s term. In the second race, incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue will face Jon Ossoff. DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN Alaska Gross 32.1 Sullivan 62.3 (53%) Alabama Jones 39.6 Tuberville 60.4 (100%) GOP Pickup Arkansas Cotton 66.7 Harrington Lib 33.3 (99%) GOP Hold Arizona Kelly 52.1 McSally 47.9 (83%) Dem Pickup Colorado Hickenlooper 53.5 Gardner 44.3 (89%) Dem Pickup Delaware Coons 59.5 Witzke 37.9 (100%) Dem Hold Georgia Ossoff 47.9 Perdue 49.9 (100%) Runoff Georgia Special Warnock 32.7 Loeffler 26.1 Collins GOP 20.1 (100%) Runoff Iowa Greenfield 45.2 Ernst 51.8 (100%) GOP Hold Idaho Jordan 33.3 Risch 62.6 (99%) GOP Hold Illinois Durbin 52.3 Curran 40.9 (97%) Dem Hold Kansas Bollier 41.4 Marshall 53.6 (100%) GOP Hold Kentucky McGrath 37.8 McConnell 58.2 (95%) GOP Hold Louisiana Perkins 19.0 Cassidy 59.3 (100%) GOP Hold Massachusetts Markey 66.5 O’Connor 33.5 (99%) Dem Hold Maine Gideon 42.3 Collins 51.1 (98%) GOP Hold Michigan Peters 49.9 James 48.2 (100%) Dem Hold Minnesota Smith 48.8 Lewis 43.5 (100%) Dem Hold Mississippi Espy 42.1 Hyde-Smith 56.1 (100%) GOP Hold Montana Bullock 45.0 Daines 55.0 (99%) GOP Hold North Carolina Cunningham 46.9 Tillis 48.7 (100%) GOP Hold Nebraska Janicek 26.0 Sasse 67.7 (99%) GOP Hold New Hampshire Shaheen 56.7 Messner 40.9 (100%) Dem Hold New Jersey Booker 60.1 Mehta 38.3 (65%) Dem Hold New Mexico Lujan 51.6 Ronchetti 45.7 (97%) Dem Hold Oklahoma Broyles 32.8 Inhofe 62.9 (100%) GOP Hold Oregon Merkley 57.7 Perkins 38.8 (82%) Dem Hold Rhode Island Reed 66.3 Waters 33.7 (93%) Dem Hold South Carolina Harrison 44.1 Graham 54.6 (100%) GOP Hold South Dakota Ahlers 34.3 Rounds 65.7 (100%) GOP Hold Tennessee Bradshaw 35.1 Hagerty 62.3 (97%) GOP Hold Texas Hegar 43.7 Cornyn 53.6 (94%) GOP Hold Virginia Warner 55.7 Gade 44.3 (99%) Dem Hold West Virginia Swearengin 26.9 Capito 70.4 (100%) GOP Hold Wyoming Ben-David 26.9 Lummis 73.1 (100%) GOP Hold polsinelli.com | 5 OVERVIEW OF ELECTION RESULTS 2020 ELECTION REPORT // POLSINELLI House of Representatives Democrats will retain control of the House, but their majority is projected to narrow, with Republicans gaining a net of five seats as of this writing. Among the Democrats defeated were several elected in the 2018 “Blue Wave” that swept the party into the House majority, as well as some more senior members like Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson, who has represented his Minnesota district since 1991. Heading into election night, Democrats held 232 seats, while Republicans held 197. A Republican-turned-Libertarian held one seat, and five seats were vacant. A handful of front-line Democratic members — incumbents facing the toughest races — were defeated. Despite hopes of expanding the map with inroads “deep into Trump country,” as of this writing, Democrats have failed to pick off even a single House Republican running for reelection. Democrats did manage to pick up a pair of Republican-held open seats in North Carolina, where redistricting had made the districts lean Democratic, and a third in Georgia after the retirement of vulnerable GOP Representative Rob Woodall.
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