Post-Election Analysis

*Current as of November 11, 2020 Election 2020 Timeline

Dec. 11: Jan. 6: U.S. Congress Congressional meets in joint session to Nov. 12 – 21 and Nov. appropriations expire 29 – Dec. 5: House new count electoral votes member orientation Dec. 18: Final Nov. 16: House scheduled returns congressional session

Nov. 9: Senate Dec. 8: Electoral Dec. 23: Deadline returns college deadline for the receipt of for resolving electors’ ballots Nov. 18 & 19: House election disputes Jan. 20: holds leadership (3 U.S.C. § 5) Inauguration Day elections Dec. 14: Electors from each state meet and cast their ballots for president Source: NCSL and vice president Election Recap Record Voter Turnout

Even with votes still left to tally, 2020 is on track to be the highest voter turnout in over a century.

2020 so far 62.5% 66.5% projected 2016 60.1% 2012 58.6% 2008 61.6% 2004 60.1% 2000 54.2% 1996 51.7% 1960 63.8% 1908 65.7% Share of voting-eligible population

Source: WP The Most Expensive Election

2020 Presidential Candidates Cash on Hand $200,000,000 Trump Biden $150,000,000

$100,000,000

$50,000,000

$0 Apr Jul Oct Dec Apr Jul Oct Dec Apr Jul Oct Dec Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020

Donald Trump Raised $1.57 billion and RNC Spent $1.49 billion Cash $117 million Raised $1.51 billion and DNC RaisedSpent $1.29 billion Cash $239 million

In the week leading up to the election, pro-Biden groups outspent pro-Trump groups by $27.5 million.

Pro-Biden Groups $67 million Pro-Trump Groups $39.5 million

Source: FEC : NPR : Bloomberg Democratic Senate Candidates Outpaced GOP Spending With few exceptions, Democratic challengers far outpaced Republican incumbents in terms of spending per vote. Dollars Spent Per Vote $160

$140

$120 Rep.

$100 Dem. Winner $80 *Won plurality of votes, advanced to runoff $60 *

$40 *

Ossoff

Cunningham

Loeffler Warnock Perdue $20 Tillis Trump

Biden

Harrison

Collins Gideon

Ernst Greenfield

McSally Kelly

Bullock Daines

McGrath Graham $0 McConnell Iowa South Carolina North Carolina Montana Maine Kentucky Arizona Georgia 1 Georgia 2 Source: FEC : AP accessed 11/9/20 Composition of the Senate Remains Undecided

The balance of the Senate will come down to runoffs in Georgia.

D: 50 seats for majority R: 51 seats for majority Democratic Party Republican Party 48 50

Runoff: January 5, 2021

Georgia Georgia Loeffler vs. Warnock Perdue vs. Ossoff Republicans Made Unexpected Gains in the House Of the 13 Democrats who appear to have lost re-election last week, 12 were freshman members elected during the 2018 midterms. After watching Democrats capture 40 seats in the 2018 midterms, Republicans’ potential net gain of ten seats in a presidential year may give them confidence in seeing a path to the House majority in 2022. Competitive Democratic Races Lost Potentially Lost Democratic Races California Rep. Gil Cisneros California Rep. TJ Cox California Rep. Harley Rouda New York Rep. Anthony Brindisi Florida Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Florida Rep. Donna Shalala Iowa Rep. Abby Finkenauer Minnesota Rep. Collin Peterson New Mexico Rep. Xochitl Torres Small New York Rep. Max Rose Oklahoma Rep. Kendra Horn South Carolina Rep. Joe Cunningham Utah Rep. Ben McAdams If these elections are certified as indicated above, the Democrats’ Source: Cook Report : WP margin will shrink from 35 to 11 seats. GOP Maintains Edge in State Capitals

Republicans held, if not expanded, their control of state legislatures and governorships. Republicans will have a trifecta in 24 states in 2021 as states begin electoral redistricting.

Party Controls State Legislature and Governorship (Trifectas) State Legislative 2021 Chamber Control Governorships Dem. Trifecta 23 27 Rep. Trifecta 39 59 Rep. Trifecta Gain Divided Government

Rep. Rep. Dem. Dem.

This marked the fewest legislative chamber switches since 1946.

Source: Multistate ‘Blue State’ Voters Reject Tax Hikes

Tax increase ballot measures failed in Democratically-controlled states.

Illinois California Colorado “Fair” Tax Prop. 15 Prop. 116

Proposal to amend the state’s Proposal to remove property tax Proposal to reduce the state constitution from a flat-rate income caps on commercial properties. income tax flat rate by 0.08%. tax to a graduated income tax.

DEFEATED DEFEATED PASSED

Source: Politico : Politico : Politico Accessed 11/9/20 What to Expect for the Remainder of the Year Congressional Lame Duck Agenda

1. COVID Stimulus 2. NDAA 3. Government funding bill 4. Tax Extenders (e.g. CFC Look-Through)

Leader McConnell and House Democrats have signaled a COVID stimulus package is a priority for the lame duck.

Source: WP : Speaker Known Transition Team Key Players

Biden has already assembled a team of 526 advisors to assist his transition.

Transition Co-Chairs • Ted Kaufman – Former Senator from Delaware • Jeff Zients – Former acting White House budget director • Yohannes Abraham – Former Obama White House aide • – Senior advisor • Michelle Lujan Grisham – Governor of New Mexico • – Congressman Key Liaisons Between Administration and Capitol Hill • House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-SC) • Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) • Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE) • Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA) • Rep. Filemon Vela (D-TX)

Source: NYT : Financial Times : H/T Ogilvy Government Relations Additional Key Biden Advisors

Long-Time Political Advisors Young Progressives • • Symone Sanders • • Gautam Raghavan • Valerie Biden Owens

Former Staff State and local elected officials • • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti • Bruce Reed • Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer • Ben Harris • California Gov. Gavin Newsom • Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms

Source: Ogilvy Government Relations Biden’s Cabinet Options

Under pressure from both parties, Biden’s transition decisions will frame his administration’s priorities for the next four years.

Progressive Cabinet picks may signal More moderate nominees may the administration plans to promote a indicate a push towards bipartisan partisan agenda via executive action. action.

If the Republicans keep their majority in the Senate, they could block more contentious nominees, forcing Biden to choose more centrist cabinet picks.

Source: Axios : Politico Likely Chief of Staff

Ron Klain

• White House Ebola Response Coordinator (2014-15) and Senior WH aide to President Obama, responsible for implementing the Recovery Act • Chief of Staff to VP Joe Biden (2009-2011) and VP Al Gore (1995-1999) • Associate Counsel to President Clinton in charge of judicial selection • Chief Council to the U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary (1989-1992)

Source: Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck : Harvard Potential Secretary of the Treasury

Elizabeth Warren Sarah Bloom Raskin Lael Brainard Roger Ferguson Gina Raimondo

• President and CEO of • Governor of Rhode • U.S. Senator from MA • Member of the U.S. • Visiting law professor at TIAA-CREF (2008-present) Island (2015-present) (2013 - present) (2018- 's Board of Governors • Former Federal Reserve • General Treasurer of • Former Presidential present) and Governor Rhode Island (2011-2015) candidate • Former Deputy Secretary • Served as the U.S. Under Secretary of the Treasury • Served on Obama’s • Assistant to the of Treasury for International Affairs & Council on Jobs and President & Special • Former Federal Reserve as Counselor to the Competitiveness and the Advisor to the Secretary Governor (2010-2014) Secretary of the Treasury Economic Recovery of the Treasury on the (2009 -2013) Advisory Board Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (2010-2011)

Other potential picks: • Mellody Hobson, President and Co-CEO of Ariel Investments • Raphael Bostic, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Source: Politico : Financial Times : Prospect Potential Secretary of Commerce

Meg Whitman Mellody Hobson

• CEO of Quibi • President and Co-CEO of Ariel Investments (1991- • Former CEO of Hewlett Packard (2011- present) 2018) • Recipient of Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson Award • Former CEO of eBay (1998-2008) (2019) • Former Republican candidate for Governor of California (2010)

Source: Politico : Financial Times Potential U.S. Trade Representative

Rep. Jimmy Gomez Nelson Cunningham

• Congressional Representative from • President and Co-Founder of McLarty Associates California (2017-present) on House Ways & (1998-present) Means Committee • Former White House special advisor on Western • Served on House USMCA working group Hemisphere affairs and helped negotiate stronger labor • Former General Council of the Senate Judiciary provisions in USMCA Committee

Source: Politico : Reuters Potential Economic Advisors

Council of Economic Advisors

•, Senior Fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities •Heather Boushey, President and CEO of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth

National Economic Council

• Jason Furman, American economist and professor at ; served as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (2013-2017) • Lael Brainard, member of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors • Sarah Bloom Raskin, American attorney; formerly a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and a former Deputy Secretary of the Treasury • Larry Summers, American economist; former director of the National Economic Council for President Obama

Source: Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck : CNBC What to Expect in 2021 China •COVID Response •IP/AI Protections •Human Rights Policies Impacting •Regional Militarization Economic Supply Chain Recovery Accountability America’s Global •Income •Buy American Inequality •Human Rights •Infrastructure •Def. Prod. Act •Business Visas •Tax Policy Competitiveness •Workforce Dev.

For GBA members, there are several important policy themes certain to be at the forefront for Trade Priorities ‘Technological Known Sovereignty’ •DST Retaliation policymakers next year. •U.S.-EU FTA •Data Privacy Policy Patchwork •U.S.-UK FTA •US Nat. Security •TPA Renewal Themes Reviews/EOs Each of these themes contain important policy considerations and implications for U.S. competitiveness in attracting FDI. Environmental Political Responsibility Participation •Paris Agreement • Disclosure •Green New Deal •Corp. Political •Regulatory Activities (e.g. Activism Gov. Revenue PACS) •State Shortfalls •Federal Tax Increases •New Congressional Priorities US-China Policy Contentions

• Of the dozen distinct issues Coercive Currency COVID-19 Human Manipulation/ identified, eight Inbound Transparency Rights Investment State could have direct Policies Subsidization implications for GBA members.

• As policymakers Interference seeks to address in the U.S. IP Protection Regional Export these concerns, the Political & Data Theft Militarization Controls risk that they will Process inadvertently impact the broader inbound business community remains Hong Kong Unilateral CFIUS Political high. Crackdown Trade Tariffs Scrutiny Rhetoric New Frontiers on National Security Reviews

Over the past five years, we’ve seen a dramatic expansion of America’s national security review apparatus.

Commercial Activity Mergers Federal & Supply Chains & Acquisitions Procurement Policies

ICTS Supply Chain EO Buy American / Pandemic Response BIS Entity List Expanded CFIUS Scope Under FIRRMA Bulk Power Supply EO

“National Strategy for Critical Federal Acquisition Security and Emerging Technologies” Council (FASC)

ECRA

“National Strategy FCC “Team Telecom” to Secure 5G” DOD Procurement Bans Critical Minerals Supply Chain EO Rethinking Biden’s Plan for Tax Increases

If Congress remains split, President-elect Biden’s campaign promises on taxes look less certain. It appears unlikely he will be able to implement the most ambitious parts of his tax agenda, such as increasing the corporate rate to 28 percent and making changes in international corporate tax policy.

Biden could, however, halt taxpayer-favorable regulatory structures, such as the pending replacement of debt/equity regulations (Section 385).

It is possible President Biden opts to work with Leader McConnell to implement smaller reforms in exchange for addressing upcoming phaseouts in TCJA. Republicans may seek to extend 100% bonus depreciation and delay Section 163(j)’s change from an EBITDA to an EBIT standard in exchange for these reforms. Biden Campaign on Trade

Buy American Buy American • $400 billion procurement investments for “Made in America” including pharmaceuticals, products in telecom and AI industries, clean energy products and building materials • Update international trade rules on government procurement • Tax benefit claw-back provision for companies outsourcing jobs

China Preference for multilateralism in countering China • "Hands may be tied" on removing tariffs • Maintain steel and aluminum tariffs Trade Free Trade Agreements will take a “backseat” Agreements • TPA renewal is not a priority • U.S.-U.K. trade deal negotiations may be paused • Will end U.S.-EU trade war DST Retaliation Restart OECD negotiations on Digital Services Taxes • Completion of Section 301 investigations WTO Potential WTO reform

Tariffs Review Trump’s trade tariffs on global imports

Additional Repairing relationships with U.S. allies Policies • May include negotiating an end to the ongoing /Airbus subsidy dispute and associated tariffs

Source: Linked above : H/T Akin Gump Potential Policy Timing

President-elect Biden announced that his top four priorities will be COVID-19 economic recovery, racial equity and climate change.

First 100 Days First Year COVID health and economic response will dominate Address expiring TCJA provisions

Executive Orders reversing the Muslim travel ban, reinstating the COVID vaccine disbursement DACA program, instituting new White House ethics guidelines COVID response measures DISCLOSE Act • Appoint supply chain commander to oversee PPE and testing Bipartisan interest in strengthening FARA • Increase use of Defense Production Act • Rejoin WHO Review of nonimmigrant visa programs Reenter Paris climate accords and re-establish Obama-era environmental regulations

Source: Biden Predictions Expect a continued bipartisan reassessment of global connections.

The Biden Administration will focus on domestic priorities but expect an effort to rebuild relationships with allies and continued emphasis on curbing China’s influence. Progressive Democrats will assert their agenda.

It’s an open question on whether it will be welcomed by the Biden Administration and House leadership. Speaker Pelosi’s Challenge

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi

“We need to not ever use the “The leadership and elements of word ‘socialist’ or ‘socialism’ the party — frankly, people in ever again. Because while some of the most important people think it doesn’t matter, it decision-making positions in the does matter. And we lost good party — are becoming so blinded members because of it. If we are to this anti-activist sentiment that classifying Tuesday as a success they are blinding themselves to from a congressional standpoint, the very assets that they offer.” we will get… torn apart in 2022.” – Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) – Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)

Source: NYT : CNN President Trump’s future political pertinence is an open question.

Expect congressional Republicans and 2024 GOP presidential hopefuls to wrestle with Trump’s influence in future elections. About GBA As the premier voice of international companies in the United States, the Global Business Alliance (GBA) actively promotes and defends an open economy that welcomes international companies to invest in America. Our members are American companies with global heritage and an indispensable part of our nation’s economic success. When America is open for business, we all benefit.