Post-Election Analysis *Current as of November 11, 2020 Election 2020 Timeline Dec. 11: Jan. 6: U.S. Congress Congressional meets in joint session to Nov. 12 – 21 and Nov. appropriations expire 29 – Dec. 5: House new count electoral votes member orientation Dec. 18: Final Nov. 16: House scheduled returns congressional session Nov. 9: Senate Dec. 8: Electoral Dec. 23: Deadline returns college deadline for the receipt of for resolving electors’ ballots Nov. 18 & 19: House election disputes Jan. 20: holds leadership (3 U.S.C. § 5) Inauguration Day elections Dec. 14: Electors from each state meet and cast their ballots for president Source: NCSL and vice president Election Recap Record Voter Turnout Even with votes still left to tally, 2020 is on track to be the highest voter turnout in over a century. 2020 so far 62.5% 66.5% projected 2016 60.1% 2012 58.6% 2008 61.6% 2004 60.1% 2000 54.2% 1996 51.7% 1960 63.8% 1908 65.7% Share of voting-eligible population Source: WP The Most Expensive Election 2020 Presidential Candidates Cash on Hand $200,000,000 Trump Biden $150,000,000 $100,000,000 $50,000,000 $0 Apr Jul Oct Dec Apr Jul Oct Dec Apr Jul Oct Dec Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 Donald Trump Raised $1.57 billion and RNC Spent $1.49 billion Cash $117 million Joe Biden Raised $1.51 billion and DNC RaisedSpent $1.29 billion Cash $239 million In the week leading up to the election, pro-Biden groups outspent pro-Trump groups by $27.5 million. Pro-Biden Groups $67 million Pro-Trump Groups $39.5 million Source: FEC : NPR : Bloomberg Democratic Senate Candidates Outpaced GOP Spending With few exceptions, Democratic challengers far outpaced Republican incumbents in terms of spending per vote. Dollars Spent Per Vote $160 $140 $120 Rep. $100 Dem. Winner $80 *Won plurality of votes, advanced to runoff $60 * $40 * Ossoff Cunningham Loeffler Warnock Perdue $20 Tillis Trump Biden Harrison Collins Gideon Ernst Greenfield McSally Kelly Bullock Daines McGrath Graham $0 McConnell Iowa South Carolina North Carolina Montana Maine Kentucky Arizona Georgia 1 Georgia 2 Source: FEC : AP accessed 11/9/20 Composition of the Senate Remains Undecided The balance of the Senate will come down to runoffs in Georgia. D: 50 seats for majority R: 51 seats for majority Democratic Party Republican Party 48 50 Runoff: January 5, 2021 Georgia Georgia Loeffler vs. Warnock Perdue vs. Ossoff Republicans Made Unexpected Gains in the House Of the 13 Democrats who appear to have lost re-election last week, 12 were freshman members elected during the 2018 midterms. After watching Democrats capture 40 seats in the 2018 midterms, Republicans’ potential net gain of ten seats in a presidential year may give them confidence in seeing a path to the House majority in 2022. Competitive Democratic Races Lost Potentially Lost Democratic Races California Rep. Gil Cisneros California Rep. TJ Cox California Rep. Harley Rouda New York Rep. Anthony Brindisi Florida Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Florida Rep. Donna Shalala Iowa Rep. Abby Finkenauer Minnesota Rep. Collin Peterson New Mexico Rep. Xochitl Torres Small New York Rep. Max Rose Oklahoma Rep. Kendra Horn South Carolina Rep. Joe Cunningham Utah Rep. Ben McAdams If these elections are certified as indicated above, the Democrats’ Source: Cook Report : WP margin will shrink from 35 to 11 seats. GOP Maintains Edge in State Capitals Republicans held, if not expanded, their control of state legislatures and governorships. Republicans will have a trifecta in 24 states in 2021 as states begin electoral redistricting. Party Controls State Legislature and Governorship (Trifectas) State Legislative 2021 Chamber Control Governorships Dem. Trifecta 23 27 Rep. Trifecta 39 59 Rep. Trifecta Gain Divided Government Rep. Rep. Dem. Dem. This marked the fewest legislative chamber switches since 1946. Source: Multistate ‘Blue State’ Voters Reject Tax Hikes Tax increase ballot measures failed in Democratically-controlled states. Illinois California Colorado “Fair” Tax Prop. 15 Prop. 116 Proposal to amend the state’s Proposal to remove property tax Proposal to reduce the state constitution from a flat-rate income caps on commercial properties. income tax flat rate by 0.08%. tax to a graduated income tax. DEFEATED DEFEATED PASSED Source: Politico : Politico : Politico Accessed 11/9/20 What to Expect for the Remainder of the Year Congressional Lame Duck Agenda 1. COVID Stimulus 2. NDAA 3. Government funding bill 4. Tax Extenders (e.g. CFC Look-Through) Leader McConnell and House Democrats have signaled a COVID stimulus package is a priority for the lame duck. Source: WP : Speaker Known Transition Team Key Players Biden has already assembled a team of 526 advisors to assist his transition. Transition Co-Chairs • Ted Kaufman – Former Senator from Delaware • Jeff Zients – Former acting White House budget director • Yohannes Abraham – Former Obama White House aide • Anita Dunn – Senior advisor • Michelle Lujan Grisham – Governor of New Mexico • Cedric Richmond – Congressman Key Liaisons Between Administration and Capitol Hill • House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-SC) • Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) • Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE) • Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA) • Rep. Filemon Vela (D-TX) Source: NYT : Financial Times : H/T Ogilvy Government Relations Additional Key Biden Advisors Long-Time Political Advisors Young Progressives • Steve Ricchetti • Symone Sanders • Ron Klain • Gautam Raghavan • Valerie Biden Owens Former Staff State and local elected officials • Evan Ryan • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti • Bruce Reed • Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer • Ben Harris • California Gov. Gavin Newsom • Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms Source: Ogilvy Government Relations Biden’s Cabinet Options Under pressure from both parties, Biden’s transition decisions will frame his administration’s priorities for the next four years. Progressive Cabinet picks may signal More moderate nominees may the administration plans to promote a indicate a push towards bipartisan partisan agenda via executive action. action. If the Republicans keep their majority in the Senate, they could block more contentious nominees, forcing Biden to choose more centrist cabinet picks. Source: Axios : Politico Likely Chief of Staff Ron Klain • White House Ebola Response Coordinator (2014-15) and Senior WH aide to President Obama, responsible for implementing the Recovery Act • Chief of Staff to VP Joe Biden (2009-2011) and VP Al Gore (1995-1999) • Associate Counsel to President Clinton in charge of judicial selection • Chief Council to the U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary (1989-1992) Source: Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck : Harvard Potential Secretary of the Treasury Elizabeth Warren Sarah Bloom Raskin Lael Brainard Roger Ferguson Gina Raimondo • President and CEO of • Governor of Rhode • U.S. Senator from MA • Member of the U.S. • Visiting law professor at TIAA-CREF (2008-present) Island (2015-present) (2013 - present) Duke University (2018- Federal Reserve's Board of Governors • Former Federal Reserve • General Treasurer of • Former Presidential present) and Governor Rhode Island (2011-2015) candidate • Former Deputy Secretary • Served as the U.S. Under Secretary of the Treasury • Served on Obama’s • Assistant to the of Treasury for International Affairs & Council on Jobs and President & Special • Former Federal Reserve as Counselor to the Competitiveness and the Advisor to the Secretary Governor (2010-2014) Secretary of the Treasury Economic Recovery of the Treasury on the (2009 -2013) Advisory Board Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (2010-2011) Other potential picks: • Mellody Hobson, President and Co-CEO of Ariel Investments • Raphael Bostic, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Source: Politico : Financial Times : Prospect Potential Secretary of Commerce Meg Whitman Mellody Hobson • CEO of Quibi • President and Co-CEO of Ariel Investments (1991- • Former CEO of Hewlett Packard (2011- present) 2018) • Recipient of Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson Award • Former CEO of eBay (1998-2008) (2019) • Former Republican candidate for Governor of California (2010) Source: Politico : Financial Times Potential U.S. Trade Representative Rep. Jimmy Gomez Nelson Cunningham • Congressional Representative from • President and Co-Founder of McLarty Associates California (2017-present) on House Ways & (1998-present) Means Committee • Former White House special advisor on Western • Served on House USMCA working group Hemisphere affairs and helped negotiate stronger labor • Former General Council of the Senate Judiciary provisions in USMCA Committee Source: Politico : Reuters Potential Economic Advisors Council of Economic Advisors •Jared Bernstein, Senior Fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities •Heather Boushey, President and CEO of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth National Economic Council • Jason Furman, American economist and professor at Harvard University; served as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (2013-2017) • Lael Brainard, member of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors • Sarah Bloom Raskin, American attorney; formerly a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and a former United States Deputy Secretary of the Treasury • Larry Summers, American economist; former director of the National Economic Council for President Obama Source: Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck : CNBC What to Expect in 2021 China •COVID Response •IP/AI