Welsh Water 2050 1

Welsh Water 2050 Consultation Document | May 2017 Welsh Water 2050 2

Welsh Water 2050 – to become a truly world class, resilient and “ sustainable water service for the benefit of future generations ” Welsh Water 2050 3

Contents

Foreword 4 3. Strategic Responses 39 4. Affordability for Customers 108 Executive Summary 7 3.1 Safeguarding clean drinking water by 5. Helping to Create a Better Future for 110 working with nature Communities 1. The Development of Welsh Water 2050 14 3.2 Enough water for all 5.1 Contribution to the Well-being of Future 1.1 Context 3.3 Improving the reliability of drinking Generations Act 1.2 Purpose water supply systems 5.2 Contribution to the Water Strategy for 1.3 At a glance 3.4 Protecting our critical water supply Wales 1.4 Approach assets 5.3 Contribution to the State of Natural 2. Future Trends 21 3.5 Achieving acceptable water quality for Resources Report all customers 6. Delivering the Future through 2.1 Demographic change 113 3.6 Towards a lead free Wales Innovation 2.2 Climate change 3.7 Addressing our ‘worst served’ 7. Stakeholder and Public Consultation 116 2.3 Changes in customer expectations customers Appendices 117 2.4 Changes to the structure of the 3.8 Employer of choice economy Bibliography 123 3.9 Leading edge customer service 2.5 Environmental change 3.10 Smart water business 2.6 Protecting essential infrastructure 3.11 Using nature to reduce flood risk and 2.7 Policy and regulatory change pollution 2.8 Protecting public health 3.12 Cleaner rivers and beaches 3.13 Protecting our critical wastewater assets 3.14 Playing our part in combatting climate change

Cover (Page 1) image - Figure 1: Ystradfellte Reservoir. © Arup Page 2 image - Figure 2: Original photo: Mount Snowdon by Sam Stockman, Creative Commons Licence Welsh Water 2050 4

Foreword Planning ahead to 2050 to enable us to earn the trust of future generations of customers

At Welsh Water, we are proud to provide Back in 2013, following engagement with strategic resilience framework for Welsh essential public services in the management over a thousand of our colleagues, we Water. of the water cycle to over three million people adopted a simple, clear vision for our That resilience framework incorporates all across most of Wales, and some adjoining business, which is: the elements of a truly resilient business - parts of England. Uniquely, we are a not-for- including assets, finance, governance, profit business with no shareholders, which To earn the trust of customers, people, systems and culture. In September means that we can focus exclusively on what “ every day 2016, the Glas Cymru board adopted a new is in the best interest of our customers. mission statement, as shown below. Because we provide an essential public From a wide variety of customer research” service, we need to: and also from our daily tracking of customer Welsh Water 2050 – to become a • Plan for the very long-term, so that we sentiment (including complaints, contacts, “ truly world class, resilient and compliments and satisfaction ratings), we can aim to protect future generations from sustainable water service for the potential challenges (such as climate know that we have many differing groups of change) and take full advantage of customers, with a wide variety of wants and benefit of future generations potential opportunities (for example, new needs from our services. technology and data analysis); Customers across all groups place a Further work with Arup and Cardiff University” has enabled us to draw up a comprehensive • Be customer-led in everything we do – particular emphasis on the reliability of the list of eight major challenges and both in terms of our day to day activities essential services we provide (safe drinking opportunities likely to be relevant to our and also in developing our plans for the water and environmental protection). Our service, drawing on a worldwide review of future; customers expect us to protect the integrity of these services against short-term events best practice. • Work in partnership with many other (such as extreme storms or major asset Trends of particular importance include: organisations, to ensure that we play our failures). part in delivering society’s wider goals; • Climate change will lead to more extreme They also need to know that they can trust us weather events; • Have the best people to deliver the best to be looking well into the future, anticipating • Urbanisation and intensification of land outcomes for our customers; challenges to service reliability and taking the use may lead to greater pressure on our • Constantly look for opportunities for necessary action to ensure that the service is environment; research, innovation and adoption of best resilient to those future risks and trends. We practice to help us deliver a better and have developed Welsh Water 2050 to • Customers’ expectations for a reliable more efficient service to our customers; respond to that customer priority. and personalised service will increase; • Provide a high quality service in which all We have worked with Arup, a leading • An ageing population will create new of our customers can place their trust in; multidisciplinary consultancy, to review challenges; and and worldwide best practice in resilience • Essential infrastructure will need to be • Ensure that this service represents good planning, such as the 100 Resilient Cities upgraded and maintained, at an value for money and is affordable for our programme (supported by the Rockefeller affordable rate. customers. Foundation), and to develop a customised Figure 3 : A Welsh Water engagement event. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 5

Foreword Planning ahead to 2050 to enable us to earn the trust of future generations of customers

Our customers expect us to plan for these urban flooding, environmental quality and For many of the 14 strategic responses, we future trends, and to ensure that the well- lead in drinking water. As a consequence, have set out a comprehensive response and being of future generations is not the current business areas and our legal a progressive response. The comprehensive compromised by a failure to prepare for responsibilities may change over the period. response would involve taking all actions that foreseeable trends and risks. We have In some cases, there may be a case for may be necessary to meet the future therefore developed 14 strategic responses, government to consider placing wider legal expectations of our customers by 2050, which set out plans of action for how we will responsibilities on Welsh Water, as has where these actions fall within our current respond to these trends. Of course, there is happened with the transfer of private sewers remit. The progressive response comprises a high level of uncertainty when considering and lateral drains. In other cases, aspects of actions which we believe will be essential, such potential challenges and opportunities service that we currently deliver could be either to meet current customer expectations as far out as 2050, particularly in respect of opened up to other potential service or to address existing clear trends. As such, future technology advances and future providers, through regulatory reform and the it constitutes a ‘no regrets’ programme of customer and community expectations for development of market mechanisms. At this action, but could leave more work for future water and wastewater services. Hence, our stage, our priority is to consider what needs generations to do to accelerate the pace of approach in Welsh Water 2050 puts much to be done to meet the expectations of mitigation. There is clearly a balance emphasis on maintaining flexibility in how we customers and communities, rather than how between the scope of the ambition of the respond to trends and also in making “no and by whom that should be delivered. long-term plan and its likely cost to regrets” decisions, taking first those steps In many cases, we cannot achieve our goals customers. There are also important inter- which address the most urgent priorities of without working in partnership and in new generational issues as to when customers our customers, whilst targeting research and ways with other organisations, particularly at should pay for these improvements. These innovation to address longer term potential a catchment level. Equally, our actions can are key trade-offs which we will be exploring challenges and opportunities. However, have wider benefits to other societal agendas further with customers and a wide range of uncertainty cannot be an excuse for inaction with our commitment to recreation and stakeholders over coming months. or simply leaving future generations to education services contributing to public The costs of mitigating the challenges and mitigate the impacts as best they can – we health and well-being. Again, this co- harnessing the opportunities from now until have to plan ahead. This approach is operative and catchment based approach to 2050 will only be affordable for our consistent with the Welsh Government’s solving society’s potential issues is very customers if we are committed to innovation. strategy as set out in the Well-being of much in line with the approach set out in the We are planning to ensure that bills will Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. Environment Act (Wales) 2016 and could remain affordable for our customers through For each strategic response, we have make a significant contribution towards better ways of working, reduced operational considered a range of possible actions, from delivering the environmental improvements costs, research and innovation in partnership research to investment. In many cases, the discussed in the first State of Natural with others and continued access to long- responsibility clearly rests with us. In others, Resources Report (published by Natural term, low cost finance for asset investment. there are a range of possible ways in which Resources Wales in 2016). this agenda could be approached to deliver a wider societal outcome – such as tackling Figure 4 : Engaging our customers. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 6

Foreword Planning ahead to 2050 to enable us to earn the trust of future generations of customers

The final Welsh Water 2050 document will set out our current view of what our customers can expect from us over the course of the next 30 years, so that we are able to earn the We believe that we should try to ensure that the long-term context within which we will trust of future generations of customers. The outcomes of Water 2050 could include: every household customer will have a bill develop our future 5-year investment plans, which is affordable, recognising that more particularly for 2020-25 (AMP7), which we will • All customers will receive a defined, acceptable service for drinking water supply and disadvantaged households will struggle to be submitting to the industry regulator drainage – or else they won’t have to pay for that service; pay their equal contribution to the cost of (Ofwat) in September 2018. Before then, we • Individualised customer service delivery, reflecting their preferences and choices as delivering the improvements to service, will be engaged in a far-reaching customer to the services that they wish to receive – integrated with other essential services to resilience and the environment that may be involvement programme to ensure that our contribute to smart homes and smart cities; desired by society as a whole. However, we plans are driven by the priorities of our would need continued support from customers, in terms of current service • Business customers receive a range of high quality services that match the best Government and from our overall customer improvements, progress towards the goals available in the rest of the UK and beyond; base to make such a commitment work in set out in Welsh Water 2050 and the • Good ecological quality for all water bodies affected by our activities, with a wider practice. affordability of bills over the next 10 years. contribution to enhance biodiversity and promote the resilience of ecosystems; We want to know your views and so we are We look forward to your input. publishing this consultation draft of Welsh • A business that is adapted to meet the challenges of climate change (from droughts Water 2050. In particular, we would like to to flooding); know: • All key assets meet prescribed resilience standards to maintain service to customers • Have we identified the right trends? irrespective of shocks and stresses and the potential for increased outages in the future; • Have we developed the right strategic responses in order to meet these trends? • Smart network management pro-actively identifies problems and deals with them • Which strategic responses are priorities in before customers are affected; the next 5-10 years in order to start to • Exposure of the public to lead in drinking water is significantly reduced, particularly for meet the challenges and opportunities up the young; to 2050? • A circular economy business that will make full use of wastewater and other • Which scenario (progressive or opportunities to maximise energy generation and the recycling of valuable materials; comprehensive) is appropriate for each strategic response? • A business which uses its land holdings and other assets to maximise the well-being • What level of trade-off are you prepared Chris Jones of its customers, encouraging healthy lifestyles and recreation; to accept between bills and long-term Chief Executive, Welsh Water • Good value for money for customers as a whole– with any increase in bills being investment in your water and wastewater affordable in relation to average household disposable incomes; services? • Affordable services for all, with every household receiving a bill which is fair and Following this consultation exercise, we which they can afford; and intend to publish a final version of Welsh Water 2050 in 2018. This document will set • A fully resilient business – in terms of its people, assets, governance, finance and culture – which is ready to meet the challenges beyond 2050. Welsh Water 2050 7

Executive Summary Introduction

Welsh Water is proud to provide essential change and climate change). They also need public services in the management of the to know that they can trust us to anticipate water cycle to over three million people future trends that present challenges to across most of Wales and some adjacent service reliability, and opportunities to parts of England. improve it. They want to be sure that we are In 2013, following involvement of a thousand taking the necessary action to ensure that the of our colleagues, we adopted a clear vision services we provide are resilient to future for our business, which is: trends. We have developed Welsh Water 2050 to To earn the trust of customers, respond to these customer priorities, and to “ every day ensure that we can continue to deliver our customer promises and achieve our vision in the context of a changing world. This is From our extensive customer research” and encapsulated in our Welsh Water 2050 continued tracking of customer sentiment, we mission statement: understand that we serve many differing groups of customers, with individual wants, needs and expectations of our services. Welsh Water 2050 – to become a “ truly world class, resilient and We have developed six customers promises to reflect the service we should provide to all sustainable water service for the of our customers: benefit of future generations 1. Safe, clean water for all; Welsh Water 2050 identifies significant” trends 2. Safeguard our environment for future over the next 30 years, how these will impact generations; on us and our customers, and how they will 3. Put things right if they go wrong; be addressed. In order to mitigate the challenges and harness the opportunities 4. Personal service that’s right for you; presented by these trends, we have 5. Fair bills for everyone; and developed 14 strategic responses, which set out a plan for action to respond to these 6. A better future for all our communities. trends. Above all, customers place a particular Welsh Water 2050 is built on four key emphasis on the reliability of essential elements: services – the provision of safe drinking • The Welsh Water customer promises; water, and the protection of the environment. They expect us to protect them against short- • A review of future trends; term shocks (for example, extreme storms or • The Welsh Water resilience framework; unexpected technical failures in assets) and and longer-term stresses (for example, population • Welsh Government policy and context. Figure 5: Our colleagues at an engagement event with our customers. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 8

Executive Summary The development of Welsh Water 2050

The Welsh Water resilience framework The process used to develop this strategy is based on global resilience best practice set in the context of Welsh Water’s operating area, including the legislation and policy of the Welsh Government. Working with Arup (a global multi-disciplinary consultancy firm) and Cardiff University, we have undertaken horizon scanning to identify significant future trends for our customers and our business, and developed a resilience framework. In this context, resilience encompasses all aspects of our business, including assets, systems, people and governance. The framework was developed by drawing on best practice from a range of institutions and cities around the world, including existing resilience guidance, methodologies, frameworks and strategies. This included the City Resilience Index, developed by Arup with support from the Rockefeller Foundation, and Ofwat Towards Resilience, developed to challenge the water utilities sector and to inform Ofwat’s work. The framework provided an independently facilitated assessment of Welsh Water’s current resilience performance, and forms the basis for the strategic responses identified in Welsh Water 2050. We will regularly assess our progress against this framework, and set ourselves objectives to improve our resilience in line with the Welsh Water 2050 mission statement.

Figure 6: The Welsh Water resilience framework. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 9

Executive Summary Future trends

There is a great deal of uncertainty around the future environment within which we will Demographic change Climate change be operating, but there are several foreseeable future trends that are likely to Population growth will lead to increased Climate change will result in more have a significant impact on our service water demand in certain areas; ageing extreme rainfall events, which could provision. It is essential that we consider the population may lead to more customers lead to increased risk of flooding and challenges and opportunities presented by in vulnerable circumstances, but pollution. Drier, hotter summers are these trends in Welsh Water 2050, so that we opportunities may emerge to develop a projected, which could result in water can continue to meet our customer promises more diverse age profile in the supply deficits and the potential for into the future. These are: workforce. increased water demand.

Change in customer Changes to the structure of Environmental change expectations the economy

Customer expectations are likely to The growth of the digital, knowledge- Invasive species, land use change and change dramatically with a desire for a based economy will create increased risk of environmental more personalised service and control opportunities to provide services in pollution may lead to a reduction in over their use of services and less more efficient ways. However, it could water quality and biodiversity. Co- tolerance of service outages. This will also have an impact on the nature of operative approaches for the delivery of particularly be the case for business society, and present a challenge to enhanced ecosystems services could customers. continuing to meet the needs and lead to better environmental outcomes. expectations of our customers.

Protecting essential Policy and regulatory Protecting public health infrastructure change

Ageing infrastructure, a limited supply Changes in policy and regulation are Regulatory standards to protect chain and cyber security are key expected due to the UK leaving the drinking water quality are likely to concerns for future service provision. European Union, devolution and continue to tighten in the future. We will Technological advances could lead to changing quality standards; this creates have a role to play in promoting significant efficiencies in the planning, uncertainty, but provides the healthier and more sustainable delivery and operation of new assets. opportunity for us to help shape future lifestyles for our customers. policy. Improved regulatory methods and innovative policy developments could lead to more efficient delivery of Figure 7 : Porthcawl. By Gareth Thompson, Creative Commons services to our customers. License (CC BY 2.0) Welsh Water 2050 10

Executive Summary Our strategic responses

Our future trends identify challenges and opportunities that we expect to face between now and 2050. To respond to these challenges and opportunities, we have developed 14 strategic responses (Table 1). For each strategic response we have considered a range of possible actions, from research to investment and set out a comprehensive response and progressive response. The comprehensive response would involve taking all actions that may be necessary to meet the future expectations of our customers by 2050, where these actions fall within our current remit. The progressive response comprises actions which we believe will be essential, either to meet current customer expectations or to address existing clear trends. As such, it constitutes a ‘no regrets’ programme of action, but could leave more work for future generations to do to accelerate the pace of mitigation. For each strategic response, we explore the outcomes that we expect to achieve by 2050, the investment required and how the outcomes meet the customer promises and the goals of the Well-being of Future Generations Act. An outline of the 14 strategic responses are included overleaf. There is huge uncertainty when considering future trends as far out as 2050, particularly in respect of future technological advances and future customer expectations. Our approach in Welsh Water 2050 puts emphasis on maintaining flexibility in how we respond to trends, and in making ‘no regrets’ decisions, taking first those steps which address the urgent priorities of our customers, whilst targeting research to address longer term potential challenges and opportunities.

Table 1 : Responding to the future trends Welsh Water 2050 11

Executive Summary Our strategic responses

1. Safeguarding clean drinking water 2. Enough water for all 3. Improving the reliability of 4. Protecting our critical water by working with nature drinking water supply systems supply assets

Catchments as a first line of defence: we will Confronted with an increasing water supply Faced with an increased risk of outages due With increasing risks of disruption (for face increased levels of pesticides, demand gap from a combination of to agricultural run-off, extreme weather example, from severe weather events fertilisers, nutrients and pathogens in raw population growth and drier summers due to events, terrorism, and cyber attacks, we will resulting from climate change and increased water, and increased turbidity of water climate change, we will use our Water build more flexibility and integration into our reliance on technology) and limited reaching our water treatment works due to Resource Management Plan to review the water treatment and supply systems. customer tolerance of supply outages, we the intensification of agriculture and greater water supply balance to 2050. We propose will improve the resilience of critical water intensity of storms. Therefore, we will co- to implement water transfers, demand assets which have high consequences of create an extensive, innovative programme management measures and leakage failure. of catchment management with landowners reduction programmes to address any and partners. deficits.

5. Achieving acceptable water 6. Towards a lead free Wales 7. Addressing our ‘worst served’ 8. Employer of choice quality for all customers customers

Ageing water mains and more extreme We have the opportunity to help improve Faced with increasing customer With an ageing workforce, an increasing weather events increase the risk of public health, and propose a targeted expectations for a good service at all times, shortage of technically skilled employees supplying water which is discoloured or has replacement of lead communication and we will address the longstanding service and more flexible working behaviours, we a poor taste. This will be addressed through supply pipes, as part of a wider societal complaints of ‘worst served customers’ to will need to continue to be an employer of a targeted replacement of iron mains. effort to address lead in drinking water. ensure that everyone receives an choice; attracting, training and retaining the acceptable level of service. best people to deliver excellent customer service.

9. Leading edge customer service 10. Smart water system management 11. Using nature to reduce flood risk 12. Cleaner rivers and beaches and pollution

Changing customer expectations, the digital With the opportunity to capitalise on RainScaping our communities: confronted With increasing pressure on the natural revolution and demographic and lifestyle technological advances, we will improve the with urban creep due to demographic environment from increased population, change are all leading Welsh Water to service performance and resilience of our change and increased intensity of rainfall changing land use, climate change and new develop a customer service culture. We will assets through remote sensing, data due to climate change, Welsh Water is sources of pollution, we will improve our harness technological change to provide a analysis and automation; solving problems proposing to reduce the risk of sewer wastewater assets to help achieve ‘good’ personalised service for customers through before they happen. flooding and pollution through sustainable environmental status for our rivers, lakes their preferred contact channel. urban drainage systems. and coastal waters.

13. Protecting our critical 14. Playing our part in combatting wastewater assets climate change

Faced with an increased risk of disruption, Faced with a changing climate and for example, from an increase in severe increased energy costs, we will aim to weather as result of climate change, and become an energy neutral business, whilst reduced customer acceptability of pollution maximising the opportunities to reuse events, we will improve the resilience of our treated water and other potentially valuable critical wastewater assets, which have high natural materials, contributing to the circular environmental and customer impacts of economy. failure. Welsh Water 2050 12

Executive Summary Affordability for customers Comprehensive Progressive Investment Investment At Welsh Water, we are acutely aware that were to pursue the comprehensive scenario Welsh Water 2050 expenditure summary Total Cost (2) Total Cost (2) Cost (1) Cost(1) any expenditure we incur is ultimately paid for for all strategic responses, we estimate that Strategic responses £m £m £m £m by our customers through water and customer bills would increase by around 1% sewerage bills and that the areas of Wales per annum above inflation. Similarly, if we 1: Safeguarding clean drinking water by working with nature 400 317 150 121 and England that we serve include were to pursue the progressive scenario for communities that are amongst the poorest in all strategic responses, we estimate that 2: Enough water for all 600 527 600 527 the UK. customer bills would increase by inflation The potential investment cost of addressing only. 3: Improving the reliability of drinking water supply systems 1,400 929 500 330 the future challenges we face would be Welsh Government estimates that some 23% between £4 and £10 billion over the next 30 of people of in Wales are currently living in 4: Protecting our critical water supply assets 150 298 150 298 years and, it is important that we consult with relative poverty (where the total household customers and stakeholders on the income from all sources is less than 60 per 5: Achieving acceptable water quality for all customers 2,400 1,762 600 446 investment underlying Welsh Water 2050. cent of the average UK household income). If We always aim to deliver value for money for society as a whole decides that that it wants 6: Towards a lead free Wales 45 33 45 33 our customers and are committed to drive improved outcomes and is prepared to pay down costs by: more in bills for them, then it becomes 7: Addressing our ‘worst served’ customers 240 213 0 6 • Seeking innovative new technologies to increasingly important to protect those that 8: Employer of choice 0 26 0 26 deliver lower investment costs; struggle to pay. Welsh Water is the industry leader in providing support to customers with • Working in partnership with others to take difficulty in paying their bills. Our range of 9: Leading edge customer service 180 147 180 147 advantage of synergies that will deliver affordability tariffs currently helps over 70,000 improved outcomes more efficiently; and customers and we aim to extend this to some 10: Smart water business 250 496 250 496 • Minimising our running costs by looking at 100,000 customers by 2020. The cost of new ways of working and exploiting lower tariffs to these customers is met by 11: Using nature to reduce flood risk and pollution 2,600 2,091 700 577 opportunities for savings. charging other customers a little more, and by Welsh Water itself through the application For the purposes of the costs presented in in 12: Cleaner rivers and beaches 1,200 1,507 600 807 of part of the surpluses that are available this document, we have assumed that through not having to pay shareholders technological advances and new innovative dividends. Our customer research shows that 13: Protecting our critical wastewater assets 200 397 200 397 practices will present opportunities for our customers consistently show strong reducing unit investment costs by some 1-2% support for this approach, and it is our 14: Playing our part in combating climate change 500 48 500 48 a year (excluding the impact of inflation). If intention to continue to help those customers this could be achieved, it would mean that who struggle to pay their bills. 10,165 8,766 4,475 4,259 our unit cost of delivery would be some 50% lower in 2050 than it is today. (1) Investment costs represent the capital expenditure that would be incurred at today’s unit cost of delivery before future efficiency improvements. Welsh Water’s charges to customers are set (2) Total cost is the investment cost plus the additional running costs to operate and maintain the every 5 years by the industry regulator, Ofwat investment net of any offsetting savings that result, and net of forecast improvements in efficiency through a process known as a Price Review. from new technology and innovative ways of working. In some cases, the efficiencies more than The next Price Review is in 2019 which will offset the additional running costs, resulting in the total cost being less than the investment cost. set charges for the 5 years 2020- 2025. If we (3) Price base – all costs are stated at today’s price levels i.e. excluding the effect of inflation.

Table 2 : Investment costs and total costs for all comprehensive and progressive strategic responses Welsh Water 2050 13

Executive Summary The future of Welsh Water

Contributing to the future of Wales Next steps and consultation Welsh Water 2050 considers both the We want to know your views and so we are direction for our own business and outlines publishing this consultation for Welsh Water the impact we want to have on the people, 2050. In particular, we would like to know: economy and natural environment of our • Have we identified the right trends? operating area in Wales and England in the long-term. • Have we developed the right strategic responses in order to meet these trends? Welsh Water 2050 contributes to the wider Well-being Goals goals of the Well-being of Future Generations • Which strategic responses are priorities in Act 2015 and the Water Strategy for Wales. It the next 5-10 years in order to start to also contributes to addressing the risks and meet the challenges and opportunities up opportunities outlined in the State of Natural to 2050? Resources Report. • Which scenario (progressive or Research and innovation comprehensive) is appropriate for each strategic response? It is clear that significant efficiencies will be required over the course of the next 30 years • What level of trade-off are you prepared if we are to meet the expectations of our to accept between bills and long-term customers and mitigate the challenges investment in your water and wastewater

A resilient Wales resilient A

A prosperous Wales prosperous A

A healthier Wales healthier A

A more equal Wales equal more A

A Wales of cohesive communities cohesive of Wales A

A Wales of vibrant culture and and culture vibrant of Wales A thriving Welsh language Welsh thriving A globally responsible Wales responsible globally A services? 1: Safeguarding clean drinking water by working with nature ahead, whilst keeping bills at an affordable level. 2: Enough water for all Our customers and stakeholders can respond to these questions at our website, 3: Improving the reliability of drinking water supply systems The rapid pace of technological change holds www.welshwater.com/yourcompanyyoursay. 4: Protecting our critical water supply assets out the prospect of providing services more efficiently and reliably in the future. Moreover, The consultation closes at the end of July 5: Achieving acceptable water quality for all customers new methods of working together, including 2017. 6: Towards a lead free Wales co-creation between water companies, their Following this consultation period, we will 7: Addressing our ‘worst served’ customers customers and other organisations could publish a final version of Welsh Water 2050 8: Employer of choice enable society to deliver its goals more in 2018. It will then inform future business 9: Leading edge customer service efficiently. planning processes, in particular for the 10: Smart water business One of the primary purposes of Welsh Water period 2020-2025, which will be covered in our business plan submission to Ofwat in 11: Using nature to reduce flood risk and pollution 2050 is to help us shape and prioritise our long-term science and research agendas, to September 2018. 12: Cleaner rivers and beaches ensure that the considerable expenditure that Over the next 30 years, we intend to review 13: Protecting our critical wastewater assets we make is focused and efficiently invested our progress annually against the aims of 14: Playing our part in combating climate change on the issues that will matter most to our Welsh Water 2050 and revise our strategic customers in the long-term. responses every five years as the challenges and opportunities presented by the Future Trends change.

Table 3 : Links between Well-being goals and strategic responses Welsh Water 2050 14

1. The Development of Welsh Water 2050 1.1 Context

Introduction Welsh Water 2050 mission

Welsh Water is part of the Glas Cymru The desire to continue to deliver the Group. We are a not for profit company customers promises in the context of a without shareholders, and therefore we retain changing world in order to earn the trust of all financial surpluses for the benefit of our our current and future customers is customers. We are responsible for the encapsulated in our Welsh Water 2050 provision of statutory water and wastewater mission statement: services to around 1.3 million households and businesses across much of Wales, Herefordshire and parts of Deeside. We also Welsh Water 2050 – to become a contribute £1.1 billion to the Welsh economy “ truly world class, resilient and every year (Welsh Economy Research Unit, sustainable water service for the 2013). benefit of future generations Customers promises The definitions of resilience and sustainability Welsh Water provides a vital public service ” are: for its customers. Our customers expect us to anticipate future trends to ensure a resilient service, long into the future. Resilience is the capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses, This is captured in Welsh Water’s vision, and systems to survive, adapt, and grow which is to ‘earn the trust of customers every no matter what kinds of chronic stresses day’. Through listening to our customers and and acute shocks they experience. understanding their priorities (Welsh Water, 2016), we have developed six promises. (Adapted from: 100 Resilient Cities, 2017) They are: 1. Safe, clean water for all; Sustainable development is meeting the needs of the present without 2. Safeguard our environment for future compromising the ability of future generations; generations to meet their own needs. 3. Put things right if they go wrong; (Brundtland Commission 1987, also adopted by 4. Personal service that’s right for you; The Well-being of Future Generations Act (Welsh Government, 2016c) and Ofwat) 5. Fair bills for everyone; and 6. A better future for all our communities.

We must continue to deliver these promises in order to earn our customers’ trust.

Figure 8 : Welsh Water‘s operating area. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 15

1. The Development of Welsh Water 2050 1.2 Purpose

This document, Welsh Water 2050, identifies Given the uncertainty of predicting the future significant trends over the next 30 years, how to 2050, our plans need to emphasise these will impact on us and our customers, flexibility. We need to be prepared to make and how they will be addressed. the right “no regrets” decisions for urgent In order to mitigate the challenges and actions, whilst prioritising our research and harness the opportunities of these trends, we innovation to build our understanding of have developed 14 strategic responses. significant future trends. The size of some of the challenges and the inter-generational In this document, we are largely concerned nature of some of the required responses with the current legal responsibilities of Welsh means that doing nothing in the face of Water – to provide essential public services uncertainty is not an option. to a wide range of customers. However, we recognise that the current business scope It is also essential that we maintain the deep and responsibilities of regulated water and involvement of customers when planning for sewerage companies could change the future, both in terms of the long-term, as significantly during the period to 2050. In set out in Welsh Water 2050, and prioritising some cases, it is conceivable that water our business planning for five-yearly companies in Wales could be tasked by the regulatory reviews. Government with taking on new legal duties, particularly in terms of urban flooding management or new responsibilities for customers’ water supply pipes. Equally, new regulatory methods and the introduction of market mechanisms could lead to other organisations seeking to provide parts of the value chain that are currently provided exclusively by us. There is also the possibility that we, and the wider Glas Cymru Group, could consider the provision of new commercial services to our customers. At this stage, this report is concerned with what customers should expect to be delivered for them over the course of the next 30 years, including the exploration of some actions which fall outside our current responsibilities. As a consequence, we need to be open minded, and maintain a high degree of flexibility in terms of the delivery of actions to 2050.

Figure 9 : Cardiff Wastewater Treatment Works) Advanced Digestion Facility. © Arup Welsh Water 2050 16

1. The Development of Welsh Water 2050 1.3 Welsh Water 2050 at a glance

Figure 10 : The development of Welsh Water 2050. Welsh Water 2050 17

1. The Development of Welsh Water 2050 1.4 Approach

Welsh Water 2050 methodology towards the same vision, the Act puts into Welsh Water aims to play a significant role in Welsh Water 2050 is built on four key place seven well-being goals: achieving these goals, as outlined in section elements: • A prosperous Wales - An innovative and 5 (contributing to the future of Wales). • Welsh policy and context; productive society, which recognises the We will inform policy, with a view to finding limits of the global environment and uses better ways to achieve beneficial outcomes • Meeting customers’ changing resources efficiently and which develops a for society as a whole – including addressing expectations; skilled population in an economy which issues such as urban flood management and • The Welsh Water resilience framework; generates wealth and provides minimising the exposure of the public to lead and employment opportunities; in drinking water. However, we recognise that our contribution to progressing such agendas • A review of future trends. • A resilient Wales – A nation which maintains and enhances a biodiverse is necessarily limited and we can only hope Building on these four elements, we have natural environment that supports to achieve societal outcomes by working in developed 14 strategic responses, to respond resilience; close and open co-operation with other to the future trends over the next 30 years. institutions, including regulators, local • A healthier Wales – A society in which The Welsh Water 2050 methodology is government and customer groups. people’s well-being is maximised and in summarised in Figure 10, on page 16. which choices and behaviours that benefit In some cases, legal changes may be Welsh policy and context future health are understood; needed to enable progress, or to transfer responsibilities, so as to deliver outcomes Welsh policy and guidance was reviewed • A more equal Wales – A society that more efficiently, but this is ultimately a matter with a particular focus on the Well-being of enables people to fulfil their potential no for Government. Future Generations Act (Welsh Government, matter what their background or 2016c), the Water Strategy for Wales (Welsh circumstances; Government, 2015a) and the State of Natural • A Wales of cohesive communities – Resources Report (Natural Resources Attractive, viable, safe and well-connected Wales, 2016). communities; We have also ensured that we are planning • A Wales of vibrant culture and thriving in the context of the Wales Water Strategy Welsh language – A society that (Welsh Government 2015a) and the State of promotes and protects cultures, heritages Natural Resources Report (Natural and the Welsh language; and Resources Wales, 2016), which provide a baseline of the scope for improvement in the • A globally responsible Wales – A nation environment in Wales and the priorities for which takes account of whether doing co-operative action. such a thing may make a positive contribution to global well-being. The Well-being of Future Generations Act places a duty on public bodies in Wales to Although Welsh Water is not a public sector consider the long-term and work more body and does not fall within the scope of the cohesively with people, communities, and Act, we have developed our approach in other public bodies to achieve outcomes. To Welsh Water 2050 in close alignment with the ensure that Welsh public bodies are working Government’s strategy for the public sector. Figure 11 : Well-being goals from the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. © Welsh Government (Welsh Government, 2016c) Welsh Water 2050 18

1. The Development of Welsh Water 2050 1.4 Approach

Welsh Water resilience framework to meet with the Velje municipality and The process used to develop Welsh Water wastewater Company to understand their 2050 is based on global resilience best approach to providing resilient water supply practice set in the context of our operating and wastewater services. area, including legislation and the policy of This review led to the development of the the Welsh Government. Welsh Water resilience framework (see We have worked with Arup, a leading appendix 1) which provided an independently multidisciplinary consultancy, and others to facilitated assessment of Welsh Water’s develop a resilience framework and strategy current resilience performance and for our business, drawing on best practice developed recommendations for the from a range of institutions and cities around improvement of Welsh Water’s resilience the globe. performance. They have formed the basis of Welsh Water 2050. Being resilient to future challenges, both shocks and stresses, is a key part of Welsh We will regularly assess our progress against Water 2050. However, we also aim to this framework and set ourselves objectives maximise the benefits that can arise from for the highest level of resilience against future opportunities within our approach. global standards, in line with our Welsh Resilience in this context must encompass all Water 2050 mission statement. aspects of our business, including assets, systems, people, finances, governance and consider economic, social, cultural and environmental perspectives. This allows us to be prepared and adaptable when faced with unexpected shocks and stresses. Resilience is not an end in itself but an essential contributor to our continuing to earn the trust of future generations of customers. Arup has, on Welsh Water’s behalf, undertaken a review of resilience guidance, methodologies, frameworks and strategies. This included the City Resilience Index (developed by Arup with support from the Rockefeller Foundation) and used by the 100 Resilient Cities network including cities such as Vejle, Rotterdam, Bristol and New York to inform the development of their strategies and approaches to resilience. In addition, Welsh Water visited Velje, Denmark in 2016

Figure 12: The Welsh Water resilience framework © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 19

1. The Development of Welsh Water 2050 1.4 Approach

Meeting customers’ changing In developing Welsh Water 2050, we have in mitigating these challenges or harnessing expectations - customers in 2050 used existing customer research, for the opportunities for the benefit of our Given current trends and the pace of change, example, consultations on the 2014 Price customers. In other cases, we will have to it is hard to predict how customers’ Review, Return of Value research and early work closely with others to co-create expectations will change by 2050. New engagement for 2019 Price Review. solutions. These future trends were based on technology, particularly in terms of data, We have developed a range of routes for the a range of sources, including Community automation and remote operation, will inclusive engagement of different customer Risk Registers, the World Economic Forum transform homes and communities over the groups, including community consultations, Global Risks Report 2017 and work next 30 years. This, along with closer online interaction and more traditional undertaken on horizon scanning by Cardiff integration of the provision of essential customer research, all developed and applied University. services, is expected to lead to the in co-operation with our Customer Challenge development of ‘smart’ homes and cities, Group. We will be experimenting with new presenting challenges and opportunities to ways to interact with customers, especially our business operations. the most hard to reach groups, so that we Customers of all kinds, whether households can reflect their changing expectations and or businesses, are likely to expect much priorities in our long-term planning and in the greater access to information, more control future developments of Welsh Water 2050. over their choice of services and a greater Future trends emphasis on the wider environmental Whilst we can’t accurately predict the future, footprint of their activities. the world is changing and Wales will be We are committed to understanding the affected by a number of future trends. We needs and expectations of our customers, know that they will create both challenges recognising that they fall into many different and opportunities for us between now and groups and have differing perspectives – 2050. such as those of households, business These future trends include: customers, those in circumstances that make them vulnerable, financially disadvantaged • Demographic change; households, and many more. • Environmental change; Our understanding and appreciation of • Climate change; customers’ views drives our day-to-day operations, and we act on rapid feedback on • Changes to the structure of the economy; the service we provide from customer interactions right across our activities. It is • Changes to essential infrastructure; also essential that we maintain the deep • Policy and regulatory change; involvement of customers when planning for the future, both in terms of our long-term • Change in customer expectations; and vision, and prioritising our business planning • Protecting public health. for five-yearly regulatory reviews. In some instances, we have a key role to play Figure 13 : Stormy seas at Porthcawl. An increased frequency of storm events is expected in the future. Image by marc, Creative Commons Licence. Welsh Water 2050 20

1. The Development of Welsh Water 2050 1.4 Approach

Strategic responses utilities, sectors and countries. Water 2050 describes 14 strategic responses Working with others to address these future trends. These 14 New methods of working together, including strategic responses provide a vision for a co-creation between water companies, their sustainable water service in 2050 which can customers, land users (such as agricultural continue to meet our customer promises in a businesses), and other organisations could changing and uncertain world. enable society to deliver its goals more We have aligned our 14 strategic responses efficiently. with the goals of the Well-being of Future We will continue to lead the way in finding Generations Act, and drawn on the guidance innovative methods to consult with customers provided by Welsh Government in their Water in the formulation of our plans and Strategy for Wales, and from Natural opportunities to work with local communities Resources Wales in the State of Natural to find holistic solutions to their particular Resources Report (SoNaRR) (Welsh needs. Government, 2015a; Welsh Government, 2016c; Natural Resources Wales, 2016). The need for innovation One of the primary purposes of Welsh Water 2050 is to help us shape and prioritise our long-term science and research agendas, to ensure that the considerable investment that we make is focused on the issues that will matter most to our customers in the long- term. The rapid pace of technological change holds the prospect of providing services more efficiently and reliably in the future. It is clear that significant efficiencies will be required over the course of the next 30 years if we are to meet the expectations of our customers and mitigate the challenges ahead, whilst keeping bills at an acceptable level. In particular, we will be seeking to become a smart business in all that we do, harnessing new advances in technology, data and science, both through our own research programme and also through the rapid adoption of emerging best practice from other

Figure 14 : A visualisation of the Taff Embankment, Grangetown. Welsh Water are working with the City of Cardiff and Natural Resources Wales, supported by the Landfill Communities Fund, to better manage rainwater in the community. © Arup Welsh Water 2050 21

2. Future Trends Challenges and opportunities

Predicting the future is very difficult but there are a number of currently foreseeable future trends. These will impact on the way Welsh Water will operate now and in the future. It is essential that we consider these in our future plans, so that we can continue to meet the service requirements of our customers long into the future. In Welsh Water 2050, we have focused on eight future trends that are likely to have significant impact on Welsh Water’s service provision. These eight future trends are shown in Table 4. They were identified as important in both the research undertaken by Cardiff University in the report ‘First steps towards a resilience strategy for Welsh Water’ and Arup’s good practice literature review of guidance documents, including the Global Risk Report from the World Economic Forum. The eight overarching future trends encompass a range of individual challenges from short-term shocks to longer-term stresses and opportunities. We recognise that some of these challenges and opportunities overlap and there are interdependencies between some of them.

Table 4 : Challenges and opportunities associated with the future trends Welsh Water 2050 22

2. Future Trends 2.1 Demographic change Population growth will lead to increased water demand in certain areas; an ageing population may lead to more customers in vulnerable circumstances, but opportunities may emerge to develop a more diverse age profile in the workforce.

Population change and migration However, changing life expectancy will Projected Population Change 2014-2039 Demographic change is widely recognised as enable people to work later in life, maximising one of the key drivers of future demand for the benefit of their skills and experience. 100,000 water and sewerage services. Skills change In Wales, the population is predicted to This ageing population is likely to lead to the increase from 3.1 million to 3.28 million retirement of senior skilled employees. There between 2014 and 2039. The largest is a risk that we will lose a large proportion of 80,000 population increases in Welsh Water’s supply our most experienced and skilled workforce area, between 2014 and 2039, are predicted in the next two decades as our employees for Cardiff (90,000), Swansea (22,000), reach retirement age. Industry experts have Herefordshire (20,000), Cheshire (17,000) identified a current and potential future skills 60,000 and Wrexham (13,000), shown in Figure 15, shortage in the water sector, particularly in (Office of National Statistics (ONS), 2015). instrumentation, control and automation skills There are projected population shrinkages in (Chartered Institution of Water and other communities, for example, Anglesey, Environmental Management (CIWEM), Blaenau Gwent and Powys. 2016). 40,000 This population growth is projected to result Flexible working practices, later retirement, in an increase in number of households from and investment in the development our staff 1.35 million in 2016 to 1.49 million by 2036, all represent opportunities for maintaining a predominantly consisting of one and two skilled and diverse workforce into the future 20,000

person dwellings. This will increase the (Arup, 2011). New generations of employees Population change (number of people) of (number change Population demand for water but will also increase our will have strong skills in new areas, such as customer base; allowing us to take familiarity with digital communication and advantage of economies of scale and meet control. the needs of our customers more efficiently . 0 Ageing population In addition, in common with many developed nations, Wales has an ageing population. -20,000 The number of working-age people is predicted to decrease by 95,000 (5%) between 2014 and 2039, with a corresponding increase in over 65s of 292,000 (44%) (ONS 2015). Figure 15: Projected population change in Welsh Water’s operating area from 2014-2039 (showing the areas with the five greatest increases in population growth and the four areas with decreasing population growth). © Welsh Water, originally from the Office of National Statistics. Welsh Water 2050 23

2. Future Trends 2.1 Demographic change

Impact on our business Increased pharmaceuticals in wastewater: With an ageing population, there may be an 1. Clean safe water for all increase in usage of pharmaceuticals and Increased water demand: Increasing hence pharmaceutical contaminants in population size, ageing population, and a wastewater (Willis, 2010). reduction in household size, will increase 3. Personal service that’s right for you water demand in South Wales and the Wrexham area. With the number of dwellings Increased diversity of communication: projected to rise by 140,000 in our supply With both an ageing population and area over the next ten years, there needs to increasing availability of social media tools be a clear strategy for network upgrades and and mobile technologies, customers’ expansions. preferred means of communication is expected to become more diverse. Reduction in water demand: In some areas of Welsh Water’s operating area, for example 4. Fair bills for everyone Blaenau Gwent, there is predicted to be a Increase in vulnerable customers: As the decrease in population. This results in a risk population ages, Welsh Water is likely to of oversized water mains and a reduction in have more vulnerable customers who require water quality in these areas. social tariffs and other special support. 2. Safeguard our environment for future 6. Better future for all our communities generations Increased demand for recreation: With a Increased abstraction: Welsh Water has more health conscious and ageing identified five water resource zones that are population, there may be more demand for likely to fall into water deficit between 2015 recreation at Welsh Water outdoor activity and 2040. This may result in greater centres. abstractions to meet water demand. Increased combined sewer overflow spills and flooding: On the wastewater side, increasing demand, housing development and urban creep are expected to increase the inflow of rainfall into the system, leading to increased risk of sewer spills and flooding events.

Figure 16 : A boy drinking water. The next generation will have changing expectations of us. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 24

2. Future Trends 2.2 Climate change Climate change will result in more extreme rainfall events, which could lead to increased risk of flooding and pollution. Drier, hotter summers are projected, which could result in water supply deficits and possibly increased water demand.

Drought Sea level rise and coastal erosion A seasonal change in precipitation is Average sea levels around the UK were projected, with a 50% decrease in summer predicted to rise by up to 76 cm by the end of precipitation. Overall, Wales and England are the 21st century (UKCIP, 2010), and the latest projected to experience hotter, drier summers research suggests that the effects could be and milder, wetter winters (Christierson et al., more severe, with sea level rise following an 2012). exponential rather than linear pattern, Ofwat has identified that there can be combined with increasingly powerful storms significant mutual benefits to water trading, (Hansen et al., 2016). These factors are likely for water utilities and customers, but that to lead to an increase in coastal erosion, with most interconnections currently exist in the South Wales highlighted as being particularly south and east of England. Reduced water vulnerable (Zsamboky et al, 2011). Moreover, resource availability in neighbouring areas when combined with the effects of storm and regulatory incentives could create surges, coastal assets could be more at risk opportunities to trade water across company of flooding. boundaries in the future. A recent study by Changing river flows Deloitte for Ofwat has recommended a River flows in Welsh Water’s operating area number of regulatory changes that could Figure 17a : Percentage change in mean summer precipitation relative to the 1961-1990 are projected to show a slight increase during baseline. 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles (DEFRA, 2012). promote increased water trading across the winter, with reductions in summer flows country, including better information sharing (Jones et al., 2007; Christierson et al., 2012). to help identify viable trading opportunities (Deloitte, 2015). Extreme weather events Given that Wales is not expected to suffer Climate change is expected to result in from drought to the same extent as other greater incidences of extreme weather parts of the UK, this could result in events, such as high intensity storms. opportunities for Welsh Water (Committee on Flooding Climate Change, 2017), for water trading with The risk of riverine and coastal flooding is adjacent water utilities, including United expected to increase in Welsh Water’s Utilities, Severn Trent Water and Bristol operating area, due to increased peak river Water. flows, sea level rise, and an increased frequency.

Figure 17b : The projected percentage change in mean winter rainfall relative to the 1961- 1990 baseline. 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles (DEFRA, 2012). Welsh Water 2050 25

2. Future Trends 2.2 Climate change

Impact on our business 2. Safeguard our environment for future 1. Safe, clean water for all generations Water supply deficit: Drier summers would Increased flooding: With a 30% increase in lead to diminished water supply (Bridgeman, precipitation and more intense rainfall in 2011). Welsh Water has identified nine water winter months, there may be higher number resource zones that are likely to fall into of incidents of sewer flooding of properties, water deficit between 2015 and 2040, due to increasing call-out and compensation costs, drier summers (Welsh Water, 2014b). This whilst reducing customer satisfaction. There deficit may need to be met with water from will also be a higher risk of asset flooding, other zones or regions. causing service outages and requiring interventions from the reactive operations Reduced water quality: Water quality may team (Bridgeman, 2011). be impacted by increases in sediment, suspended solids, pesticide and nutrient 3. Put things right if they go wrong loadings linked to increased peak Increased flood risk to assets: The precipitation and pollutant mobilisation projected increase in precipitation and higher (Whitehead et al., 2009; Watts et al., 2015). intensity storms in winter, along with an Hotter drier summers: Reduced average increased rate of coastal erosion and sea flows could reduce the dilution of pollutants. level rise, will increase flood risk to assets. Higher temperatures may increase the This may lead to a higher number of outages. incidence of blue-green algal blooms or Improvements to dams and reservoirs: outbreaks of infectious diseases (Semenza Increased rainfall will increase the risk of dam and Menne, 2009; Verweij et al., 2010). overtopping and more frequent droughts will Current water treatment processes may increase the need for flexible operation of require improvement to treat increased dams to conserve limited water resources. blooms or other forms of contamination. Additional investment may be required for Increased domestic water demand: improvements, like upsizing spillways and Increases in domestic water demand of upgrading reservoir pipework and valves. between 1.5 – 3% are expected, largely 4. Fair bills for everyone related to increased garden watering and Water trading: Reduced water resource increased bathing associated with warmer availability in neighbouring areas could create weather (Downing et al, 2003). opportunities to trade water across company boundaries, to the mutual benefit of customers.

Figure 18 : Change in unit flows in the sewerage system due to climate and demographic change in Welsh Water’s operating area (Welsh Water, 2009). Welsh Water 2050 26

2. Future Trends 2.3 Change in customer expectations Customer expectations are likely to change dramatically with a desire for a more personalised service and control over their use of services and less tolerance of service outages. This will particularly be the case for business customers.

Lifestyle change Digital revolution As the population ages, domestic The rate of economic and technical change is consumption is likely to increase as people expected to increase (Institute of Customer spend more time at home (Fox et al., 2009; Service, 2016). In particular, the increasing Schleich and Hillenbrand, 2009). The use of speed of microprocessors (Peldszus, 2017), water-intensive appliances, such as growth of the artificial intelligence analytics dishwashers, is likely to continue to increase market (Brown, 2015) and the roll-out of (Drysdale et al., 2015), compounded by the smart utility metering to more households trend towards living in single households and across Welsh Water’s operating area associated greater appliance ownership (Carboni et al., 2016) will have a profound (Menon et al. 2010; Borg et al. 2011). impact on the way we work as a business Moreover, there is a trend towards more and communicate with our customers and frequent showering associated with more other stakeholders. active lifestyles, which could intensify with Customers will expect more personalised, temperature rise associated with climate instant engagement and will expect us to change (Downing et al., 2003). Water is automatically tailor our services to meet their viewed as an essential commodity, as needs. They may also expect our systems to opposed to a scarce resource, and thus interact automatically with smart devices in efforts to limit consumption could be met with their homes, including smart meters and strong resistance from the customer base of mobile devices – the internet of things. the future (Jorgensen et al., 2009; Chappells et al., 2011). In the event of service incidents, such as reductions in water quality or sewage The Natural Resources Wales Outdoor flooding, customers will expect on-going and Recreation Survey highlights that 60% of proactive communications through multiple Welsh people would like to do more outdoor modes, including social media and mobile recreation (Natural Resources Wales, 2014). platforms (Summary of PR19 Phase 1 Welsh Water may have a greater role to play Research, 2016). in providing recreation opportunities for its customers, for example, providing appropriate access to sites, visitors centres, and watersports centres at some reservoirs.

Figure 19 : A customer engagement event. Meeting the needs of the next generation of our customers is crucial. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 27

2. Future Trends 2.3 Change in customer expectations

Big data analytics will enable us to build a Business customers be a significant gulf between those of much more accurate picture of our Business customers have increasing working age, who will be highly customers’ needs and wants in the future, expectations for the service they receive, technologically aware and expect multiple enabling us to proactively offer them including better usage data, water efficiency modes of communication, and older personalised services, without relying on support and more flexible and user-friendly generations, some of whom may lack this traditional methods of public engagement. billing. technology or an awareness of it. Future generations may be willing to share Customer expectations and loyalty personal data but are likely to be increasingly Over time, business customers may expect concerned with the threat of cybersecurity, to see a closer integration between their use Loyalty towards collective institutions (such and want assurances that their data will be of water services and other essential utility as Welsh Water) is likely to fall amongst kept secure (Institute of Customer Service, services. For some businesses, their use of customers of the future. Individuals may 2016). In addition, new General Data water services will also become an important become more informed and critical of our Protection Regulations, which will come into part of their wider environmental performance, and their trust is likely to be force in 2018, require organisations to responsibility agenda. highly conditional on whether their needs are strengthen and unify data protection for Given the introduction of competitive retail being met. They may expect a very high level individuals. services for all non-household customers in of transparency, individually-tailored methods England from April 2017, it will be important of engaging with us over a wide range of Advances in banking technology, and the platforms, and for us to automatically offer a growth of non-traditional quasi-banking that all business customers in Wales perceive that they are also benefitting from personalised service that meets their specific services (including PayPal, Monzo and needs (Institute of Customer Service, 2016). Revolut) could lead to the introduction of the new products, and improved customer instant billing and rebate systems. service and value for money that are Customers are increasingly intolerant of Customers may come to expect shorter expected to result. temporary water quality issues and sewage billing periods, or instantaneous billing, Vulnerable customers flooding incidents, and are likely to view based on data produced by smart metering Welsh Water as responsible for such In Wales, the number of people aged 16 – 64 system. incidents (Summary of PR19 Phase 1 is predicted to decrease by 5% between Research, 2016). Customer segmentation 2014 and 2039, whilst the number of over Reliability and ease of use of technology in Customer segmentation, differentiating 65s is expected to increase by 44% (Welsh Government, 2015b). A proportion of these other digital sectors will raise expectations for between customers such as businesses and our service and reduce tolerance of any vulnerable customers, may be more older customers are likely to be vulnerable, have limited mobility, or experience issues service interruptions (Institute of Customer important to provide a good service. The Service, 2016). increase in data collection and knowledge with affordability. Moreover, future working about our customers may enable this. age generations are also expected to face greater affordability challenges due to intergenerational wealth inequality (Institute of Customer Service, 2016). There is likely to

Figure 20 : Engaging our customers as part of behavioural change campaign © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 28

2. Future Trends 2.3 Change in customer expectations

Impact on our business make providing a personalised service to all 1. Safe, clean water for all more challenging. Increased water demand: Increased Business customers: Expectations of demand due to changing lifestyles and a customer service, added value services and reluctance to limit consumption amongst the value for money will develop in light of the future customer base could limit its new business retail market in England. affordability and the ability of Welsh Water to 5. Fair bills for everyone continue to provide safe, clean water for all. Vulnerable customers: Intergenerational 2. Safeguard our environment for future wealth inequality and a growth in the number generations of vulnerable customers could make it more Environmental consciousness: There is an difficult for Welsh Water to provide fair bills increased awareness of environmental and for all. climate change amongst customers, who 6. A better future for all our communities may increasingly expect us to protect the Trust in institutions: Trust in large environment, companies, organisations and politics have 3. Put things right if they go wrong all taken a significant hit in the last couple of Intolerance of failure: Our customer base is years (Edelman Trust Barometer, Edelman, likely to become increasingly intolerant of 2017), and retaining customer trust will failure in the future, and this, combined with require high levels of customer service, the expectation of a new personalised environmental performance and relationship with customers could make it demonstration of good business ethics. more difficult to put things right if they go Recreation opportunities: As the retired wrong. However, increased remote sensing population increases and with increased and data analysis will make it possible to be health awareness in the general population, more proactive and anticipate problems there may be an increased desire for before they happen. recreation opportunities at Welsh Water sites. 4. Personal service that’s right for you Biodiversity and nature: Our customers will Responding to diversity in expectations: expect us to enhance the environment With a larger amount of customer data and through our activities. This aligns with the segmentation available, Welsh Water have Environment Act 2016. the opportunity to provide a more personalised service. Differing levels of access and ability to use technology may

Figure 21 : Online and mobile payment systems are experiencing rapid advances. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 29

2. Future Trends 2.4 Changes to the structure of the economy The growth of the digital, knowledge-based economy will create opportunities to provide services in efficient ways. However, it could present a challenge to continuing to meet the needs and expectations of our customers.

Industrial change needed to develop staff to work alongside Unions Congress, 2014). This inequality can In the near future, Welsh Water’s operating automated systems. Automation may also impact on customers’ health and wellbeing, area may see a continued contraction in the increase the amount of leisure time available which contributes to the stresses described primary and secondary sectors (extraction of for staff and customers (Ministry of Defence, in the Protecting Public Health section. raw materials and manufacturing) reducing 2014). Energy costs total water demand (Yu et al., 2010). There is Recession Some estimates suggest that global energy likely to be an increase in service industries Recession and growth are cyclical and Wales demand is set to grow by around 37% by and tourism, which are focused on rural and is likely to experience periods of recession in 2040 (Anglian Water et al., 2015), putting coastal regions, and may put pressure on the period to 2050. Periods of recession are upward pressures on prices. When combined local water supply and waste water services likely to reduce demand for water by with geopolitical uncertainties in the oil and (Deloitte, 2013). households, industry and agriculture (Duarte gas markets, the expectation is that there is Growth in the digital economy et al., 2014) and lead to increased hardship likely to be considerable volatility in the Many have observed that the Fourth for customers. market for energy in the future, with Industrial Revolution is coming, in the form of Inequality electricity potentially becoming more expensive and less secure up to 2050. a cyber-physical revolution (World Economic Rising income and wealth disparity was Forum, 2017). 45% of activities that workers noted by the World Economic Forum as one Higher energy costs could also create an undertake today could theoretically be of the major global risks in 2017. Since the opportunity for renewable energy to become automated (Chui et al, 2015). Automated 1980s, the share of income going to the top more affordable and attractive relative to systems are increasingly likely to replace 1% in the UK has increased (World traditional sources, and support the move people in the workforce and will be as Economic Forum, 2017). away from carbon-intensive generation universal in 2045 as computers are today methods. The business case for resilient self- (World Economic Forum, 2017), putting low Wealth and income disparity is driven in part generation could also become more income jobs at particular risk and causing a by unemployment and under-employment attractive. which often rises in periods of recession. likely increase in the number of vulnerable State provision of services customers (Ministry of Defence, 2014). This may increase the numbers of vulnerable customers and give Welsh Water challenges In the future, we may take on a larger role in Automation will likely improve system in collecting revenue. Wales saw the provision of services as required by efficiency and reduce operation costs. unemployment rise from 5.7%, in 2008, to government through, for example, the Artificial intelligence and machine learning 8.1%, in 2009 and stay above 8% until 2013, adoption of surface water drainage. will enable computers to self-learn and make due to the global recession. This impacted intelligent decisions with minimal operational some areas more severely, with Blaenau human oversight, but creating new jobs in Gwent experiencing unemployment over instrumentation, automation and control, 16% (Welsh Government, 2016a). Wales growing the knowledge economy (World also experienced a 21% increase in under- Economic Forum, 2017). Training will be employment between 2010 and 2014 (Trade

Figure 22 : A cell tower. More and more devices are becoming digitally connected to each other – the ‘internet of things’. By Jeff Kubina, Creative Commons License (CC BY-SA 2.0) Welsh Water 2050 30

2. Future Trends 2.4 Changes to the structure of the economy

This would give us greater control over through anaerobic digestion (Ofwat, 2015). Increased energy costs: Welsh Water’s maintenance and operational expenditure, The value of the market for sludge as a Business Plan 2015-2020 (Welsh Water, allowing us to tackle problems more bioresource could be a up to £780m (WWT 2014a) notes that whilst future power prices effectively and give us greater opportunities Online, 28th November 2016). remain uncertain, there is a likelihood that to provide multiple benefits for customers. Impact on our business they will rise relative to inflation over time. For Welsh Water, uncertainty over future Changes, like an ageing population 1. Safe, clean water for all increasing the social care bill and decreasing energy costs can be mitigated by increasing the tax base, may undermine the state’s Change in demand: A reduction in the the proportion of renewable, self-generation ability to provide critical services in the future primary and manufacturing sectors is of energy. (Ministry of Defence, 2014). Moreover, the expected to reduce total industry demand. Circular economy: Creating value from trend towards lower public spending as a However, economic change could result in current ‘waste’ products should increase the proportion of GDP in the UK (OECD, 2017) an increase in demand amongst particular value of our service. An increase in could increase the proportion of vulnerable industrial customers or at particular locations, renewable energy production may protect the customers in our service area. Both of these impacting on Welsh Water’s ability to deliver business to some extent from rising energy factors could increase the number of safe, clean water. costs. customers reliant on our social tariffs. Increased Tourism: The predicted increase Growth in the digital economy: Automation Circular economy in tourism will result in the food, drink and and digitalisation will provide efficiency for hotel sector putting more pressure on rural The circular economy is one which aims to Welsh Water in service provision. and coastal sewage and water supplies Improvements in collecting, analysing and decouple economic growth from finite (Downing et al., 2003). resource consumption, keeping resources communicating data provide opportunities for and components at their highest utility and 2. Safeguard our environment for future better knowledge and planning. value at all times (Ellen MacArthur generations The increased used of digital services will Foundation, 2017). There are circular Pollution events and abstraction: An also mean that there is more risk to services economy applications across the water cycle increase in seasonal variation for water from cyber threat. Welsh Water will need to which could provide business opportunities demand due to tourism in rural areas may plan, implement and regularly update cyber for Welsh Water. Circular economy result in increased abstractions and put security. opportunities include renewable energy increased pressure on local sewage 6. A better future for all our communities options such as hydroelectric dams, solar treatment works. PV, microhydro and anaerobic digestion at Growth in the digital economy: There is 5. Fair bills for everyone treatment plants. In addition, there is also the the potential for a growth in the knowledge- potential for heat recovery from sewage, grey Recession: A future recession could based economy. More leisure time would water recycling and aquaculture, and increase inequality and unemployment, provide people with more time to spend on biorefining sewage sludge into bio-polymers increasing the number of vulnerable community projects and more demand for for the plastics and chemical industries customers who struggle to pay, increasing recreational opportunities at Welsh Water (Arup, 2016). Regulatory changes and the the need for affordability for customers. sites. removal of barriers to trading could promote Inequality: Rising income and wealth Figure 23 : Use of remote and automated systems such as drones and sludge as a valued resource, for power disparity may challenge perceptions of automated valves will provide efficiency in service provision, Welsh Water ©. generation and the production of fertilisers, fairness. Welsh Water 2050 31

2. Future Trends 2.5 Environmental change Invasive species, land use change and increased risk of environmental pollution may lead to a reduction in water quality and diversity. However, co-operative approaches for the delivery of enhanced ecosystems services could lead to better environmental outcomes.

Land use change including the Environment (Wales) Act (2016) 80% of the land in Wales is used for and SoNaRR (2016). Biodiversity loss agriculture. Future changes in agriculture are Environmental pollution Land use change and invasive species difficult to predict, but most future scenarios Population and climatic changes may result compound environmental degradation and predict a decrease in land use by agriculture, in an increase in water pollution incidents. climate change impacts on the health of greater intensification and a potential shift There are emerging contaminants such as Welsh ecosystems and increase biodiversity from livestock to arable due to warmer loss. climatic conditions. Intensification of human pharmaceuticals and hormones, agriculture and the shift to arable farming are veterinary medicines, nanomaterials, Welsh Water has a duty under the predicted to increase the use of pesticides personal care products and recreational Environment (Wales) Act (2016) to enhance and fertilisers which could result in a higher drugs in wastewater due to an ageing biodiversity and promote the resilience of concentrations of pesticides and fertilisers in population, increasing cleanliness, lifestyle ecosystems. raw water. Land management practices like choices and use of pharmaceuticals. Urban Changing environmental regulation and stock management and tree felling can also wastewater is a key pathway for emerging government policy impact nutrients in raw water. Land use contaminants to enter watercourses and the As the UK exits the European Union, there is change, and increased extreme rainfall water supply system. For example, the an opportunity to shape environmental patterns, have been linked to increasing synthetic estrogenic hormone EE2 has been legislation and regulatory practice to protect dissolved organic carbon in raw water, linked to the presence of intersex fish in UK and enhance the unique environment of requiring increase chlorine use for rivers (Harris et al. 2011). Welsh Water’s operating area in new and disinfection and associated increase in Invasive species more efficient ways. This could become more potentially harmful disinfection by-products Invasive alien species have the potential to onerous, or could include more flexible (Gough 2014). have a significant impact on Welsh Water’s regulation methods that are aligned with the Expected population increases may lead to assets. These species currently include the principles of the Water Framework Directive, urban creep, which will intensify peak runoff Zebra Mussel and Asian Clam, which have such as the General Binding Rules on land volumes. This is likely to increase flood risk spread to Wales and are responsible for use practice or seasonal consenting for downstream and have a detrimental impact significant bio-fouling, blocking pipes in water discharges. on the water quality of receiving waterbodies. treatment facilities, and an increased risk of Co-operative working between Welsh Water, cyanobacteria blooms and therefore a Natural Resources Wales, and land users decrease in raw water quality. These species (particularly agricultural) could encourage are estimated to have cost the electrical and positive changes to land use, for example water treatment industries in the US up to through payment for ecosystem services $467 million between 1989 and 2004 approaches and catchment management (Connelly et al. 2007). partnerships. Such approaches are strongly encouraged by Welsh Government policy Figure 24: Snowdonia. Image by Blazing Minds, Creative Commons License (CC-BY-2.0). Welsh Water 2050 32

2. Future Trends 2.5 Environmental change

Impact on our business 5. Fair bills for everyone 1. Safe, clean water for all Complex water and wastewater treatment: Increase in water contaminants: The The increased risk of poor raw water quality increasing use of pesticides and fertilisers in due to pesticides, invasive species and agriculture, the increased presence of emerging contaminants and tighter emerging contaminants in watercourses and environmental standards for wastewater the potential increase in risk of cyanobacteria discharges may result in a requirement for blooms will have a detrimental impact on raw more complex and expensive water and water quality reaching water treatment works wastewater treatment processes, which could and may require more complex and ultimately lead to a rise in customer bills. expensive treatment. 6. A better future for all our communities 2. Safeguard our environment for future Wider environmental benefits: With generations increased public interest in and better Reduction in water quality: An increase in regulatory drivers to protect the natural urban run off due to population growth and environment, Welsh Water will have the urban creep may increase flood risk and have opportunity to work in partnership with public a detrimental impact on the water quality of bodies and the local community to deliver the receiving waterbodies. Lower river flows, due wider environmental benefits more efficiently, to climatic changes, reduce the dilution of for example, encouragement of biodiversity. pesticides in watercourses increasing the risk Growing environmental awareness: There of environmental damage. are opportunities to undertake more The increase in the number of emerging educational initiatives which encourage contaminants in wastewater impacts healthier and more sustainable lifestyles. negatively on aquatic species. 3. Put things right if they go wrong Reduction in raw water quality: The increased risk of poor raw water quality due to pesticides, invasive species and emerging contaminants may result in water sources being unusable and a reduction in the resilience of water supply. This could lead to outages for Welsh Water customers.

Figure 25 : Sheep farming in the Welsh hills. By tekaybe, Creative Commons License (CC BY 2.0) Welsh Water 2050 33

2. Future Trends 2.6 Protecting essential infrastructure Ageing infrastructure, a limited supply chain and cyber security are key concerns for future service provision; but technological advances could lead to significant efficiencies in the planning, delivery and operation of new assets.

Supply chain failure Physical and cyber security Welsh Water is reliant on global supply We will need to continue to maker sure our chains, which for some materials and key assets are secure and protected from products means we use limited suppliers. physical threats, such as terrorism. Chlorine and phosphates are two examples The increasing reliance on digital technology of chemicals we use which are critical to the exposes the UK water industry to cyber business and are of limited supply. Chlorine threats, both for water and sewage networks used in water treatment and distribution is and customer management systems, such as provided by only one supplier in the UK, with customer billing information and customer an alternative supplier in France. Phosphates facing information. are used in water treatment, and there are limited global sources in Turkey and in Consequences of technological advances Mexico. Technological advances may result in Ageing water infrastructure increased automation of systems and operator input. This may reduce operational The legacy of industrialisation and costs (MOD, 2014). urbanisation in parts of Wales led to rapid construction of water supply and sewerage An increased use of remote monitoring, infrastructure in the late 19th and early 20th analysis of ‘big data’ and automated century. A growing number of physical assets operation should enable a far more proactive constructed during this period are expected service in the future – with greater efficiency to reach or exceed their design life within the and improved service reliability. However, a next 30 years. This may result in significantly greater reliance on technology and reduced performance or failure. Therefore, interconnected control systems for the there may be significant pressure on Welsh operation and control of our assets could Water to repair or replace these assets at an increase the number of ways assets can fail, increasing rate. and reduce redundancy in our systems. Moreover, increased complexity requires staff Ageing national infrastructure with specialist skills for maintenance and Much of the UK’s infrastructure, including operation, and there is a risk that only a small roads and power distribution systems, is number of staff possess these skills, or that expected to experience more frequent we could be reliant on a single or small failures due to the age of the infrastructure, number of external agencies for certain and changing weather patterns (IET, 2016). services. It is also possible that automated systems will replace some human roles in the future, leading to a loss of skills and demotivation of the workforce (World Figure 26 : Investigating ageing assets. © Arup Economic Forum, 2017). Welsh Water 2050 34

2. Future Trends 2.6 Protecting essential infrastructure

Impact on our business Technological advances: Increased data 1. Safe, clean water for all collection and analysis of the network will highlight network problems sooner, avoiding Ageing Welsh Water infrastructure: With a outages and improving operational efficiency. large proportion of Welsh Water’s assets reaching or surpassing their design life, there 5. Fair bills for everyone is a greater risk of asset failure resulting in an Improved capital efficiency investment: increased number of interruptions to water New construction materials and techniques, supply. for example, offsite preparation and 3D Resource scarcity: Energy and chemicals printing will improve capital investment are required for the creation of potable water. efficiency. In addition, improved sensing and Future scarcity in resources and global data analysis will enable Welsh Water to supply chain issues could increase difficulties target our investment better. in obtaining these and drive price increases. Aging infrastructure: There will be a need 2. Safeguard our environment for future for increased maintenance and replacement generations rates for essential infrastructure assets (for example, dams). This could put upward Ageing Welsh Water infrastructure: With a pressure on bills. large proportion of Welsh Water’s assets reaching or surpassing their design life, there is a greater risk of asset failure resulting in more spills from combined sewer overflows or pollution incidents. 3. Put things right if they go wrong Ageing Welsh Water infrastructure: With a large proportion of Welsh Water’s assets reaching or surpassing their design life, there is a greater risk of asset failure resulting in an increased number of interruptions to water supply or sewerage services. Poor reliability of interdependent external infrastructure: Reliance on ageing infrastructure from other utilities (for example, energy and transport), may affect the reliability of Welsh Water’s services.

Figure 27 : A 3D printer. 3D printing has the potential to transform the manufacture of components in the future. By The UC San Diego Library. Creative Commons License (CC-BY-2.0) Welsh Water 2050 35

2. Future Trends 2.7 Policy and regulatory change Changes in policy and regulatory methods are expected due to the UK leaving the European Union, devolution and changing quality standards; this creates uncertainty, but provides the opportunity for us to help shape future policy. Improved regulatory methods and innovative policy developments could lead to more efficient delivery of services to our customers.

Changing regulation and policy Devolution Increasing the role of markets in the water The environmental and water quality Devolution from the UK to Wales is also a sector regulatory regimes in which Welsh Water live issue following the introduction of the We expect that there will be a greater role for operates are likely to remain the same until Wales Act in January 2017. The Act confers markets in the water value chain. Some of 2020, after which regulation may change due additional powers to Wales on water and these markets may be competitive, for the departure of the UK from the European sewage services, aligning the boundary for example, a competitive retail market was Union. This means that future regulation and legislative competence for water with the introduced for all business customers in policy after 2020 remains decidedly Welsh border. In the immediate term, the England in April 2017. Welsh Water is uncertain. Water Strategy for Wales (Welsh committed to ensuring that its business Industry observers have highlighted a Government, 2015a) signals a growing customers receive sector leading value for number of areas of uncertainty regarding the expectation for Welsh Water to play a role in money and standards of service, whatever regulatory landscape in the post-European delivering government environmental policy. the regulatory and market environment. Union era: the future strategic direction of the Welsh Water will need to reflect differing Other markets will provide better water sector; possible changes to directives policy and regulatory environments for its opportunities for “buyers” and “sellers” to shaping water and environmental policy and operations in Wales and England to ensure interact, for example, the Payment for Eco- regulation; potential effects on regulation and customer promises are met. system Services approach envisaged by the enforcements; pressure for deregulation to Welsh Government and Natural Resources Devolution is also happening at a more local Wales. ease industry burdens applied to the water level, with City Region governance sector; the potential for European Union arrangements around Cardiff and Swansea. The next steps in Ofwat’s Water 2020 directives to be maintained; and delay in strategy are to open up the treatment and implementing new legislation to enable future Changing health standards disposal of sewage sludge, new water planned reforms (Grady and McRobb, 2016; The World Health Organisation (WHO) resources and large capital investment MacNee, 2016; Oxera, 2016; Shepard and provides guidance on drinking water projects to markets and alternative delivery Wedderburn, 2016). standards and bathing water standards. options. These should be in place by 2020 As the UK exits the European Union, there is Water is a growing global issue, as and may provide opportunities for Welsh an opportunity to shape water and recognised by Goal 6 of the UN’s Water to expand its range of services or to environmental legislation to protect the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). find more efficient ways of procuring or unique environment of Welsh Water’s The WHO is responding to this through delivering services for customers. operating area. This could include more increased guidance, as seen through the flexible regulation methods, that are aligned 2016 publication on Protecting Surface Water with the Water Framework Directive, such as for Health (Rickert B et al., 2016). the use of General Binding Rules or seasonal consenting for discharges.

Figure 28 : The flag of the European Union. The regulatory regime after the departure of the UK from the European Union is uncertain. By K.G.Hawes. Creative Commons License (CC-BY-2.0) Welsh Water 2050 36

2. Future Trends 2.7 Policy and regulatory change

Impact on our business 6. A better future for all our communities 1. Safe, clean water for all Co-creation opportunities: Water Changing policy and legislation: Possible companies are likely to be expected to play changing water policy due to exit from the an increasing role in achieving catchment- European Union and future changes in public wide policies, and there is an opportunity for health regulations worldwide will impact on us to co-operate more widely in order to meet the provision of safe, clean water. governmental goals for improved ecosystems. 2. Safeguard our environment for future generations Changing methods of environmental regulation: The uncertainty around environmental regulation after departure from the European Union may make it harder to plan for post-2020. However, the post-European Union era offers Welsh Water the opportunity to work with governments and stakeholders to shape future water and environmental legislation and regulatory practice. 5. Fair bills for everyone Changing regulatory structures: The changing strength of regulation (for example, requirements for water quality) may impact on the cost of water provision. Retail competition for business customers and opening upstream services for competition, along with a more market- orientated industry driven by cost reduction, could lead to more efficient overall service delivery but also may make it more challenging to protect disadvantaged customers in the future.

Figure 29 : The Welsh Senedd. Devolution could lead to greater powers for the Welsh Government in the future. By Richard Szwejkowski, Creative Commons License (CC-BY-2.0). Welsh Water 2050 37

2. Future Trends 2.8 Protecting public health Regulatory standards to protect drinking water quality are likely to continue to tighten in the future. We will have a role to play in promoting healthier and more sustainable lifestyles for our customers.

Chronic and lifestyle diseases diseases (Brownlie et al, 2006). They would new challenges for quality control in our Lifestyle factors are responsible for most both have an impact on Welsh Water’s water supply treatment systems. illnesses and premature deaths include operation. Health and lifestyle smoking, stress, alcohol, improper diet, Pandemics and disease migration The Natural Resources Wales Outdoor overeating and lack of exercise. Increased travel, an ageing population, Recreation Survey (Natural Resources 42% of the population in Wales is not altered herd immunity, increasing Wales, 2013) highlights that 60% of Welsh physically active (Welsh Government, 2016b) susceptibility to infections, and overuse of people would like to do more outdoor and currently 59% of the Welsh population is antibiotics and antimicrobials in animals and recreation and the areas that they most like overweight and 24% obese, this is predicted humans will increase the risk of pandemics to visit are woodlands, forests and beaches to increase to 50% by 2050. Socio-economic and disease migration to the UK. (Karmali et as opposed to local parks (Natural deprivation has a significant impact on al, 2008). Resources Wales, 2014). In addition, outdoor lifestyle choices (Welsh Government, 2016b; Pandemics, particularly pandemic influenza, activity is worth £480m to the Welsh Brownlie et al, 2006). have impacted Wales in recent years (Public Economy (Wales Online, 2014). Pharmaceuticals and contaminants Health Wales, 2011). The UK government Some Welsh households have lead supply The predicted ageing population is likely to has predicted that a future pandemic may pipes, owned by customers. Elevated levels increase the amount and range of infect half the UK population and cause of lead consumption has been linked to pharmaceuticals consumed. The quantity of 20,000-750,000 deaths (Cabinet Office cognitive dysfunction in children and cardiovascular drugs prescribed is predicted 2013). increased influenza, hypertension and renal to double by 2052 (Willis 2010) and the Antimicrobial resistance is increasing, failure in adults. concentrations of pharmaceuticals and resulting in a worsening ability to treat In addition, in some studies, chlorine oestrogen in UK catchments are predicted to common infectious diseases, increased disinfection by-products in drinking water has increase by 2050 (Green et al. 2013). In transmission between animals and humans, been linked to asthma, dermatitis and addition, lifestyle drugs such as caffeine and and longer hospital stays (World Health bladder cancer (World Health Organisation, nicotine have been found in UK groundwater. Organisation, 2016). 2003). In the natural water environment, these Animal disease outbreaks may impact on Whilst Welsh Water’s drinking water currently stimulate biological responses in organisms food supply and the rural economy. The most meets WHO standards, tightening standards at low concentrations (Arnold et al., 2013; recent serious outbreak of foot and mouth may require both lead and chlorine Guo et al., 2016). disease in 2001 led to the obstruction of concentrations to be reduced in drinking Bioterrorism access to some of Welsh Water’s assets, water. In the UK, additional drivers for future and disrupted the application of treated disease risk include bioterrorism, from both sewage sludge to agricultural land. novel pathogens and weaponising current Moreover, there has been concern that new diseases. Bioterrorism could target water waterborne diseases in our catchments, such networks or animals as vectors of human as cryptosporidium variants could present Figure 30 : Canoeing in the Brecon Beacons. By Phil Dolby, Creative Commons License (CC-BY-2.0) Welsh Water 2050 38

2. Future Trends 2.8 Protecting public health

Impact on our business 3. Put things right if they go wrong 1. Safe, clean water for all Pandemics and staff illness: In the event of Changing water quality standards: a pandemic, large numbers of staff could be Tightening water quality standards for absent from work at any one time affecting pharmaceuticals, lead, and chlorine treatment the ability to undertake critical maintenance by-products will increase the amount of (Cabinet Office, 2013). Antimicrobial treatment required to provide safe water. resistance may cause longer periods of sickness (World Health Organisation, 2016). Emerging contaminants: The UK’s exposure to pharmaceutical products is 5. Fair bills for everyone classified as ‘medium’ risk (Kookana et al. Increasing water contaminants: The 2014b). This will be harder to maintain with increasing amount and range of increased contaminants in our wastewater contaminants in both water and wastewater and groundwater. may require additional treatment which is Disease migration: There is the risk of new costly. waterborne diseases in our catchment, such 6. A better future for all our communities as new variants of cryptosporidium, which Improving public health: Welsh Water has could present new challenges for quality opportunities to contribute to improved public control in our water supply treatment health by making green spaces under their systems. ownership available for amenity and 2. Safeguard our environment for future recreation. Cheap, safe, drinking water could generations be promoted further to help combat obesity Treatment of pharmaceuticals: A range of (Patel and Hampton, 2011). pharmaceuticals have been found in wastewater effluent in the UK, suggesting current treatment is insufficient to remove these substances (Roberts and Thomas, 2006; Rivera-Utrilla et al., 2013). New treatment technologies are being developed that better target pharmaceuticals, although the costs of these technologies are likely to be high (Rivera-Utrilla et al., 2013; Nasirabadi et al., 2016). The pharmaceuticals stimulate biological responses, negatively impacting on the natural water environment. Figure 31 : Welsh Water’s visitor centre at Llandegfedd Reservoir. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 39

3. Strategic Responses Overview Planning for delivery of investment, research and innovation in order to respond to future trends and uncertainty.

In order to respond to the challenges and We also set out how each response helps us Where we have outlined both a harness the opportunities associated with the to meet our customer promises and the goals comprehensive and progressive response, future trends, we have developed 14 of the Well-being of Future Generations Act we offer two investment scenarios, with strategic responses (as summarised in (Welsh Government, 2016c). different investment and total costs. The Figure 33, overleaf). In Table 5 (on page 41) For many of the 14 strategic responses, we investment cost is the capital investment at we have outlined how each of these have set out a comprehensive response and current unit prices to be spent between 2020 responds to the future trends. a progressive response. The comprehensive and 2050. The total cost is the investment Of course, uncertainty remains in our response would involve taking all actions that cost plus the additional running costs to consideration of future trends as far out as may be necessary to meet the future operate and maintain the investment net of 2050. Our approach is both to maintain expectations of our customers by 2050, any offsetting savings that result, and net of flexibility and also to make “no regrets” where these actions fall within our current forecast improvements in efficiency from new decisions. In part, this is achieved by each of remit. The progressive response comprises technology and innovative ways of working. the strategic responses responding to at actions which we believe will be essential, To further illustrate what is meant by the least two of the future trends, achieving either to meet current customer expectations likely activity under each strategic response, multiple benefits for our customers in the or to address existing clear trends. As such, we also provide case studies, both of current future. it constitutes a ‘no regrets’ programme of activities and likely future investment. We have outlined each response in more action, but could leave more work for future detail through quantified investment generations to do to accelerate the pace of scenarios, and explored the outcomes that mitigation. we expect to achieve by 2050. In some cases, there is only a single For each strategic response, in the section response presented, where we believe that that follows, we have set out: this level of response is essential to: • The importance of the response to our • Meet our legal duties (for example, customers; ‘Enough water for all’); • The future trends that the response • Maintain the sustainability of our business addresses; (for example, ‘Employer of choice’); • A detailed description of the response; • Meet customers’ expectations (for example, ‘Leading-edge customer • The research and innovation that will be service’); or required to deliver the response; • Mitigate potential low probability-high • How we will work with others to deliver consequence risks which customers the response; and would find unacceptable (for example, • The benefits we will deliver to our ‘Protecting our critical water supply customers (customer outcomes). assets’). Figure 32 : Upper Lliw Reservoir, Velindre © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 40

3. Strategic Responses Overview

Figure 33 : An artist’s impression of the water cycle, and our strategic responses. © Arup Welsh Water 2050 41

3. Strategic Responses Addressing the future trends

Table 5 : Addressing future trends Welsh Water 2050 42

3. Strategic Responses At a glance

1. Safeguarding clean drinking water by working 2. Enough water for all 3. Improving the reliability of drinking water 4. Protecting our critical water supply assets with nature supply systems

Catchments as a first line of defence: we will face Confronted with an increasing water supply demand Faced with an increased risk of outages due to With increasing risks of disruption (for example, from increased levels of pesticides, fertilisers, nutrients and gap from a combination of population growth and drier agricultural run-off, extreme weather events, terrorism, severe weather events resulting from climate change pathogens in raw water, and increased turbidity of summers due to climate change, we will use our and cyber attacks, we will build more flexibility and and increased reliance on technology) and limited water reaching our water treatment works due to the Water Resource Management Plan to review the integration into our water treatment and supply customer tolerance of supply outages, we will improve intensification of agriculture and greater intensity of water supply balance to 2050. We propose to systems. the resilience of critical water assets which have high storms. Therefore, we will co-create an extensive, implement water transfers, demand management consequences of failure. innovative programme of catchment management with measures and leakage reduction programmes to landowners and partners. address any deficits.

Customer Customer Customer Customer Promises: Promises: Promises: Promises:

Future Future Future Future Trends: Trends: Trends: Trends:

Customer Promises 5. Achieving acceptable water quality for all 6. Towards a lead free Wales Future Trends customers

Ageing water mains and more extreme weather We have the opportunity to help improve public health, Demographic change 1. Safe, clean water for all events increase the risk of supplying water which is and propose a targeted replacement of lead discoloured or has a poor taste. This will be addressed communication and supply pipes, as part of a wider through a targeted replacement of iron mains. societal effort to address lead in drinking water.

2. Safeguard our environment for Climate change future generations

Customer Customer Change in customer Promises: Promises: expectations 3. Put things right if they go Future Future wrong Trends: Trends: Changes to the structure of the economy 7. Addressing our ‘worst served’ customers 8. Employer of choice

4. Personal service that’s right for Environmental change you Faced with increasing customer expectations for a With an ageing workforce, an increasing shortage of good service at all times, we will address the technically skilled employees and more flexible longstanding service complaints of ‘worst served working behaviours, we will need to continue to be an customers’ to ensure that everyone receives an employer of choice; attracting, training and retaining Changes to infrastructure acceptable level of service. the best people to deliver excellent customer service. 5. Fair bills for everyone

Policy and regulatory change 6. A better future for all our Customer Customer communities Promises: Promises: Protecting public health Future Future Trends: Trends: Welsh Water 2050 43

3. Strategic Responses At a glance

9. Leading edge customer service 10. Smart water system management 11. Using nature to reduce flood risk and pollution 12. Cleaner rivers and beaches

Changing customer expectations, the digital revolution With the opportunity to capitalise on technological RainScaping our communities: confronted with urban With increasing pressure on the natural environment and demographic and lifestyle change are all leading advances, we will improve the service performance creep due to demographic change and increased from increased population, changing land use, climate Welsh Water to develop a customer service culture. and resilience of our assets through remote sensing, intensity of rainfall due to climate change, Welsh change and new sources of pollution, we will improve We will harness technological change to provide a data analysis and automation; solving problems before Water is proposing to reduce the risk of sewer flooding our wastewater assets to help achieve ‘good’ personalised service for customers through their they happen. and pollution through sustainable urban drainage environmental status for our rivers, lakes and coastal preferred contact channel. systems. waters.

Customer Customer Customer Customer Promises: Promises: Promises: Promises:

Future Future Future Future Trends: Trends: Trends: Trends:

Customer Promises 13. Protecting our critical wastewater assets 14. Playing our part in combatting climate change Future Trends

Faced with an increased risk of disruption, for example Faced with a changing climate and increased energy Demographic change 1. Safe, clean water for all from climate change, and reduced customer costs, we will aim to become an energy neutral acceptability of pollution events, we will improve the business, whilst maximising the opportunities to reuse resilience of out critical wastewater assets, which have treated water and other potentially valuable natural high environmental and customer impacts of failure. materials, contributing to the circular economy. 2. Safeguard our environment for Climate change future generations

Customer Customer Promises: Promises: Change in customer Future expectations 3. Put things right if they go Future Trends: Trends: wrong Changes to the structure of the economy

4. Personal service that’s right for Environmental change you

Changes to infrastructure

5. Fair bills for everyone

Policy and regulatory change 6. A better future for all our communities Protecting public health

Figure 34 : Conwy. By alh1, Creative Commons License (CC-BY-2.0) Welsh Water 2050 44 3. Strategic Responses 3.1 Safeguarding clean drinking water by working with nature

Catchments as a first line of defence: we will face increased levels of pesticides, fertilisers, nutrients and pathogens Customer in raw water, and increased turbidity of water reaching our water treatment works due to the intensification of promises agriculture and greater intensity of storms. Therefore, we will co-create an extensive, innovative programme of Future catchment management with landowners and partners. trends

Importance for customers studies to asthma, dermatitis and bladder odour-causing compounds (for example, Safe drinking water is consistently referred to cancer (IPCS, 2000; Morris at al, 1992; due to algal growth) alongside the by customers as their highest priority out of World Health Organisation, 2003). development of low and no chlorine the services we provide (Welsh Water, In parallel, between now and 2050 water treatment solutions; 2016). Upland management was seen as the quality regulations are likely to tighten • Undertake research to develop chemical highest priority solution in our customer regarding the presence of fertilisers and free treatment processes, for example, research, as customers felt we should be pesticides in drinking water. through catalysis; providing more preventative rather than Strategic response • Research disinfection by-products and reactive measures. We propose to address the risk to raw water their removal; Responding to future trends quality by undertaking a programme of • Innovative solutions for reducing the risk Welsh Water abstracts water for water supply catchment management starting with high from cryptosporidium in a catchment; from 120 catchments covering an area of risk catchments. In each catchment, • New environmental and asset monitoring almost 11,000km². Land within these interventions will include: approaches with technology providers, catchments is subject to a variety of land use • Influencing land management and land including land ownership and land types and management practices. We have use practices through co-operative management techniques; and limited land holding across the catchments stakeholder engagement and regulatory and consequently we have little control of • Trialling efficient regulatory methods interventions (including General Binding (GBRs) and potentially a payment for land activities. Stock management, tree Rules); planting and harvesting, and the use of ecosystems services approach and chemicals including pesticides, fertilisers or • Incentivising adoption of our preferred natural capital accounting, including nutrients can present a risk to raw water land use management practices through possible links to the agricultural subsidy quality and treatment challenges for our the creation of payment incentive regime after Brexit. water treatment works. mechanisms (for example, payment for Co-operative approach ecosystems services); and Increased intensification of agriculture and This strategic response will take an approach tree felling, combined with more intense • Controlling land management through which brings together government bodies, storms will lead to greater concentrations of targeted land purchase of priority or high regulators and land users at a catchment pesticides, fertilisers, nutrients and risk land. level to co-create plans to improve pathogens in raw water and more turbid Research and innovation management and access, building on the water reaching our water treatment works. Welsh Water will explore the following success of the Welsh Water Weed Wiper This could necessitate the increased use of research topics to support this initiative: Partnership. chlorine for treatment, leading to by-products that have been tentatively linked in some • Mitigation of the formation of taste and

Figure 35 : Sheep in the Welsh hills. By Suzanne Glelis, Creative Commons License (CC BY-ND 2.0) Welsh Water 2050 45 3. Strategic Responses 3.1 Safeguarding clean drinking water by working with nature

Customer promises Customer promises Well-being goals Future trends Clean, safe water for all A resilient Wales Controlling raw water quality will Catchment management will improve the ability of Welsh Water to improve the resilience of the natural provide clean, safe water to customers. water cycle, and enable it to endure future shocks and stresses to water Safeguard our environment for quality. future generations Environmental stewardship in A prosperous Wales catchments will help improve Enhanced biodiversity, biodiversity and the quality of the environmental stewardship, and the landscape. Research into chemical-free reduced need for treatment processes and the removal of processes will contribute to a low disinfection by-products will help carbon society and the efficient use protect the environment for generations of natural resources in Wales. to come. A globally responsible Wales Fair bills for everyone The enhancement of the natural Improved catchment management may environment will contribute to the result in reduced operational well-being of ecosystems. expenditure and allow Welsh Water to keep bills low for customers into the future by avoiding expensive treatment. A healthier Wales Catchment management will protect A better future for all our public health through safe drinking communities water and providing improved The wider benefits of biodiversity and access to the countryside and environmental stewardship associated leisure activities. with sustainable catchment management could help to provide a better future for Welsh Water’s communities, improving public access to the countryside.

Figure 36 : Henrhrd Falls in the Brecon Beacons. By Dave Grubb, Creative Commons License (CC BY-SA 2.0) Welsh Water 2050 46

3. Strategic Responses 3.1 Safeguarding clean drinking water by working with nature

We believe that the ‘catchments as a first line of defence’ approach is crucial to the future safeguarding of drinking water quality; the issue is how widely to implement this approach, to prioritise catchments with the greatest risks or to implement this approach in almost all of our catchments, covering most of our customers.

Progressive scenario

Customer outcomes Actions • Welsh Water will implement water safeguard protection zones for all catchments which • Improved protection of raw water quality for 1.1 million customers; have a high risk of poor water quality due to cryptosporidium, pesticides, high • Increased control of the quality of our raw product; ensuring raw water entering our concentrations of natural organic matter, and algal growth. The total number of treatment works is of a consistent and manageable quality (including managing catchments where safeguard protection zones will be implemented is 30, which cryptosporidium, natural organic matter causing disinfection by products and algal growth represents one quarter of Welsh Water catchments. causing taste and odour complaints); • Each water safeguard protection zone will have a risk management plan, which we will • Increased quality of our raw material in the face of increased turbidity and run-off due to co-create with other catchment users and regulators, which will protect and enhance the extreme weather events caused by climate change; catchment through measures such as: • Spend to save: prevent or delay spend on additional/upgrades to water treatment works; • Stakeholder management and co-ordination; • Reduce the chemical and energy demand from water treatment works, due to reduced need • Land use change; to ultra-violet (UV) treatment, powder activated carbon (PAC) dosing and avoided chemical • Regulatory interventions (for example, through General Binding Rules); dosing, saving £2m per annum; • Payment for ecosystem services; and • Generate wider benefits for communities and the environment including improved • Targeted land purchase. biodiversity, environmental stewardship and recreation opportunities; and • Support Welsh Government and Natural Resources Wales’ payment for ecosystem services agenda.

Investment required £150m Total cost £121m

Comprehensive scenario

Customer outcomes Actions As per the progressive scenario with the addition of: As per the progressive scenario with the addition of: + Improve protection of raw water quality for a further 1.5 million customers; and + Welsh Water will implement water safeguard protection zones for all catchments which + Further reduce chemical and energy use saving a further £1 million per year. have a high risk and additionally a medium risk of poor water quality. + This represents an additional 50 catchments with safeguard protection zones implemented which, taken together with the 30 high risk zones, represents about two- thirds of Welsh Water catchments.

Additional investment £250m Additional total cost £196m

Total investment £400m Total cost £317m Welsh Water 2050 47

3. Strategic Responses 3.1 Safeguarding clean drinking water by working with nature Current case study: Weed Wiper Partnership

In 2015/16 Welsh Water successfully worked • A dedicated area created on our website, with Natural Resources Wales and the featuring useful leaflets and a “how to” farming industry on an innovative campaign film. to tackle the rising levels of the grassland Result herbicide MCPA in water abstracted for drinking in two catchment areas, River Teifi • 190 farmers received information packs; and River Wye. Working together, best • 63 participants hired a weed wiper; practice advice was provided and land • 618 hectares weed wiped; managers were offered free hire of a weed wiper; an alternative application method that • Significant reduction in MCPA detection in reduces the risk of herbicide loss into 2015, lower than previous 2 years; and watercourses. • The use of around 1,800 litres of MCPA Issue avoided in the two catchments; and Concentrations of the herbicide MCPA in raw • The outcomes of the Weed Wiper water (pre-treatment) were observed to often partnership have been shared with: Welsh be greater than the prescribed concentration Government; Natural Resources Wales; value of 0.1μg/l set down in the drinking Farming Union Wales; Farming and water regulations. MCPA is costly and difficult Wildlife Advisory Group Wales; and many Figure 37 : Working with our farmers as part of the weed wiper partnership © Welsh Water to remove at water treatment works. other relevant stakeholders. Action taken Investment: £130,000 As part of this campaign, actions included: Next steps • Increased stakeholder engagement and The partnership has continued to build on the working with farmers and land owners to success in 2015/16, with the Weed Wiper trial help us tackle this problem, by managing ongoing in the original target areas, rush infestations differently; extending further into the Afon Teifi catchment for the 2017 season. Experience • Free hire of a weed wiper provided of the trial has been used to develop a ‘blue- between April and October 2015 to print’ for delivery in other catchments with farmers and land managers in River Teifi similar issues. and Wye catchments; • Best practice advice and information packs disseminated at numerous agricultural events, shows, workshops and in the media; and

Figure 38 : Working with our farmers as part of the weed wiper partnership © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 48

3. Strategic Responses 3.1 Safeguarding clean drinking water by working with nature Future Project: Brecon Beacons mega catchment

Around half of the water we abstract for drinking on a • Work with farmers, community groups and daily basis comes from the Brecon Beacons. There is a customers to change the way we look after this land. need to ensure that the raw water entering our Influence land use and management through the treatment works is of a consistent and manageable creation of a new WaterSource payment incentives quality. Robust catchment management will build scheme. Build on stakeholder relationships made in resilience into our drinking water supply system, AMP5 and AMP6 to pilot development of a increasing our ability to react, respond and recover from payments incentives scheme; and events. • Quantification of the amenity and economic benefits, Issue along with ownership of outcomes, will need to be Current land use and activities present a risk to raw simulated. water quality. The projected impact of climate change is Expected result likely to increase the risks to raw water quality and • Increased control of raw water quality abstracted quantity. Without control of the raw water quality from the Brecon Beacons mega catchment; entering water treatment works, the treatment process will require upgrades and more robust processes to • Reduction in future capital and operational water deal with the deteriorating and more variable raw water treatment requirements for half the water we extract quality. for drinking; and Figure 39 : A map of the Brecon Beacons catchment area. © Welsh Water. Actions to be taken • Generation of wider social and environmental benefits through partnership working. Through this programme actions taken were to: Next steps • Co-create a catchment enhancement strategy jointly with Brecon Beacons National Park and other land We will users; • Launch our WaterSource approach to drinking water • Create a landscape approach to safeguard raw catchment management, working in partnership with water quality and quantity in the Brecon Beacons by the Brecon Beacons National Park and other key developing new ways to work with land managers to stakeholders; promote adoption of supporting activities and • Raise awareness amongst stakeholders and behaviours; taking a “farming for water” approach; partners of our catchment strategy progress to date • Develop enabling tools that assist and gain their support; stakeholders/partners in deciding what land use • Identify common areas of interest with changes to use and where in the catchment to stakeholders/partners to focus future collaboration; implement them. Possible land use changes could and involve interventions on direct flow pathways and • Introduce and receive feedback from connectivity to slow, store and filter surface water stakeholders/partners on our proposed Brecon through implementation of best practice land and Beacons landscape scale project. soil management such as use of runoff attenuation Figure 40 : The Brecon Beacons, one of our important catchment areas. By features, buffer and riparian management strips and David Evans, Creative Commons Licence (CC-BY-2.0) seasonal livestock removal; Welsh Water 2050 49

3.2 Enough water for all

Confronted with an increasing water supply demand gap from a combination of population growth and drier Customer summers due to climate change, we will use our Water Resource Management Plan to review the water supply promises balance to 2050. We propose to implement water transfers, demand management measures and leakage reduction Future programmes to address any deficits. trends

Importance for customers also reducing supply opportunities. include: Customers have made clear through In addition, significant upgrades to spillways • Water efficiency – saving water through research undertaken in 2014 (Welsh Water, and internal pipework will be needed at many supporting customers to reduce their 2014b) that a reliable source of water is of of our dams, to ensure that they remain safe usage; great importance to them and that we should in light of an expected increase in extreme • Water reuse – encouraging the use of be able to sustain water supply to customers rainfall events, and flexible enough to grey water reuse and rainwater in all but the most extreme of droughts. In respond to more frequent drought periods. harvesting; addition, engagement with customers has informed us that a least cost approach is Strategic response • Water metering – to incentivise reduced required when identifying solutions to These challenges are considered in Our water usage; address forecasted difficulties in supplying Water Resources Management Plan (Welsh • Leakage – reducing the losses in our water to meet demand. Water, 2014b) which details what needs to system through increased investment in Responding to future trends be done from 2015 to 2040 to ensure a leakage strategy; sustainable and affordable balance between Water demand is expected to change in the • Water transfer - across zonal or company the amount of water we take from the boundaries; and future, due to: environment and the amount of water we need for our daily lives. • Water Resource – utilising a new source • Population growth (particularly in the of water or increasing the water we take South Wales, Hereford and Wrexham As part of looking at water demand, we from an existing source. areas); develop demand forecasts for our zones, • Changes to the structure of the economy, estimating usage levels in a hot dry year, and In order to identify the best measures to including industrial decline and growth in for the critical period of peak use. This gives implement, we prioritise those solutions tourism; us insight as to whether we can supply water which provide the required volume of water • Land use change; and to all of our customers in the most arduous savings with low social, environmental and • Changes in customer behaviour. conditions, across a whole year and during economic costs. the critical period. If our supply demand We have identified five Water Resource In parallel, water supply could reduce in the balance shows that there is an adequate Zones that are anticipated to fall into deficit future due to climate change, particularly as supply of water to meet the forecasted between 2015 and 2040 (i.e. they will not summers are projected to become drier, demand in that Water Resource Zone, we have enough water available to supply impacting on the amount of raw water are able to achieve our planned level of customers). available for water supply. service. The European Habitats Directive 92/43/EEC However, if the supply demand balance requires a reduction in the amount of water shows a deficit of water we need to look at abstracted from some of our water sources, options to meet this deficit. These options Figure 41 : Craig Goch reservoir spillway in operation © Arup Welsh Water 2050 50 3. Strategic Responses 3.2 Enough water for all

Customer promises Details on options for addressing these • Exploring low cost desalination Customer promises Well-being goals deficits are given in the comprehensive opportunities, for example, graphene Future scenario and case study. sieves. trends Clean, safe water for everyone A resilient Wales We are currently developing our next Water Co-operative approach Sustainable water resources is a Enough water for all takes into Resource Management Plan, which will fully We will work cooperatively with regulators cornerstone of clean, safe water for account future shocks and stresses and makes Wales more resilient in update our analysis for the period 2020 to (such as Natural Resources Wales) and, in everyone. A sound approach to 2050. the face of such events. Reducing particular, customers. planning against future challenges, and the impact of abstractions on our Research and innovation then identifying and delivering the ecosystems The delivery of water efficiency measures in means of facing up to those challenges A healthier Wales Welsh Water will explore the following some of those zones in deficit will require us is critical. A safe drinking water supply, with research topics to support this strategic to focus on innovation with both our suppliers Safeguard our environment for enough water for all, helps enhance response: and customers. We will also need to work future generations the good general health of our closely with our supply chain to ensure we • Understanding patterns of water By working to manage and reduce the customers. consumption, and working with maximise efficient delivery, innovation and impact our water abstractions have on consumers, businesses and community environmental protection, at the same time the environment we can ensure that groups to improve water efficiency, and as delivering sustainable, reliable water water is abstracted in a way that is maximise the benefits from techniques supplies to our customers. sustainable and safeguards the such as water sensitive urban design and We will explore the opportunities to trade environment for future generations. greywater recycling; water across company boundaries, to the Put it right if things go wrong • Pilot schemes to assess the benefits of mutual benefit of customers. Ensuring we have the plan in place to ‘smart’ metering, particularly for business deliver the required amount of water to customers; our customers in the face of many • Fully assessing the impacts of climate challenges improves our ability to change on water abstractions, in terms of respond to those future shocks and water availability, impact on the stresses on our system. environment, and on water consumption patterns; Fair bills for everyone We have worked to ensure that the • Researching local abstraction, treatment, solutions identified to address forecast and distribution methods in order to water resource deficits are those that understand the possible role of local, provide the required volume of water community based water supply systems; savings or water supply at the least and cost over the long term, or improving supply resilience where we have • Exploring trading water across company identified this as a benefit for boundaries, taking advantage of possible customers. regulatory change in the future that could support this. Welsh Water 2050 51

3. Strategic Responses 3.2 Enough water for all

In this case, there is only a comprehensive scenario presented, which covers Welsh Water’s statutory duty to produce and deliver a Water Resource Management Plan to meet current and future demand for water, taking into account forecast changes to water supply resources.

Comprehensive scenario

Customer outcomes Actions • Enable security of supply to our customers in all but the most extreme droughts (greater • Welsh Water will follow the statutory process to produce the Water Resource than 1 in 40 years); Management Plan 2019, which will plan the water supply-demand balance across • Ensure the environment is protected where we abstract water, and that we can release Welsh Water’s catchments to 2045. Internally, this plan will be extended to 2050. water from our reservoirs to safeguard the downstream environment; and • We will implement the water transfers and water efficiency measures and leakage • In light of climate change and projection of more severe flooding events, upgrade our reduction programmes recommended in the Water Resource Management Plan reservoirs and dams to ensure that their water storage can be optimally used for water 2019. These responses could include: supply and they meet the latest mandatory dams and reservoir safety standards. • North Eryri Ynys Môn Water Resource Zone: Water transfer from the neighbouring water resource zone to Cwm Dulyn water treatment works and leakage and water efficiency programme; • Tywyn/Aberdyfi Water Resource Zone: Water transfer from new river abstraction at Afon Dynsnni to Penybont water treatment works and water efficiency programme; • Brecon Portis Water Resource Zone: Additional releases from the Usk reservoir, for abstraction at our Brecon water treatment works when required; • Pembrokeshire Water Resource Zone: Water transfer from Llys y Fran Reservoir to Preseli water treatment works, along with reinstatement of a borehole supply and leakage improvements; and • South-east Wales Conjunctive Use System (SEWCUS) Water Resource Zone: Additional leakage detection and network improvements to enable water movement across the zone. • Welsh Water will improve dam spillways and pipework to meet increasing standards of dam safety legislation.

Total investment £600m Total cost £527m Welsh Water 2050 52

3. Strategic Responses 3.2 Enough water for all Current case study: water deficit zones

In our 2014 Water Resources Management Plan The solution selected to meet the deficit to 2027 is to (Welsh Water, 2014b) we identified five water resource supplement the available flow in the river Usk with zones that will potentially fall into deficit between 2015 additional releases from the Usk reservoir, for and 2040. abstraction at our Brecon water treatment works when required. North Eryri Ynys Môn is forecast to be in deficit from Pembrokeshire’s identified water resource deficit has 2024 and remain in deficit throughout the rest of the been driven by the significant impact of the Natural planning period. Resources Wales’ ‘Review of Consents’, and the To maintain the supply demand balance to 2040, potential impacts of climate change. Welsh Water is Welsh Water will deliver the least cost programme of undertaking environmental study work to confirm and solutions, which is to transfer water from our Cwm agree with Natural Resources Wales the level of Dulyn water treatment works in the neighbouring water licence reductions that will be required on the Eastern resource zone to the south, to actively pursue improved Cleddau River. leakage levels, and to carry out water efficiency work. Licence reductions are planned to take effect from April Tywyn/Aberdyfi is predicted to be in deficit post 2016. 2018 and will limit our ability to refill reservoirs, and in Due to the remote nature of this water resource zone, turn, will restrict water supply from our Preseli water and the current limited ability to share water with treatment works. neighbouring water resource zones due to network The solutions to the forecast deficit are to transfer raw restrictions, finding options to meet the identified deficit water from Llys y Fran reservoir to Preseli water is more challenging. Available leakage savings are treatment works, to import water from the adjacent limited because of the considerable leakage reduction Gower water resource zone, to further reduce leakage efforts that have already been undertaken. Some water across the zone and to reinstate the Milton boreholes efficiency measures are already being promoted. through to 2040. To maintain the supply demand balance Welsh Water South-east Wales Conjunctive Use System will transfer raw water from a new river abstraction at (SEWCUS) has a small deficit of 0.5Ml/d which was Afon Dysynni to Penybont water treatment works which identified in the final year of the planning period. This has existing spare capacity, thus maximising the use of deficit is driven by the combined effect of Natural this existing asset. Further treatment capacity will be Resources Wales’ proposed changes to our abstraction obtained later in the planning period at this asset to licences on the lower reaches of the Rivers Usk and maintain the supply demand balance. There will also be Wye, the predicted impacts of climate change and a additional water efficiency measures implemented. demand forecast that rises steadily. As a result of the The 2014 Water Resources Management Plan identified deficit, Welsh Water plan to implement predicted that Brecon Portis would be in deficit in additional leakage detection work towards the end of 2015 due to licensing changes and reduced abstraction the planning period. (supply). Figure 42 : Predicted water deficit zones in Wales between 2015 and 2040. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 53 3. Strategic Responses 3.3 Improving the reliability of drinking water supply systems

Faced with an increased risk of outages due to agricultural run-off, extreme weather events, terrorism, and cyber Customer attacks, we will build more flexibility and integration into our water treatment and supply systems. promises

Future trends

Customer impact chain or critical asset failure. Research and innovation Water supply is the primary aspect that Strategic response Welsh Water will explore the following customers associate with our business. They The aim of this strategic response is to research topics to support this strategic expect a clean, safe and continuous supply provide connectivity between our water response: (Welsh Water, 2016). resource supply zones and treatment works • Research lower cost treatment solutions There is acceptance that some aspects of by moving from a traditional point to point to provide more resilient works such as supply interruption are outside the control of distribution system to an automated grid ceramic membranes and efficient Welsh Water. However, all customers system, that incorporates redundancy and ultraviolet treatment; highlighted the substantial impact that a loss strategic storage where necessary. The • Development of new tunnelling of supply for more than 24 hours would have strategic response could ultimately: techniques with our Alliance Partners to on them and, in particular, businesses’ ability • Reduce the number of water resource allow for optimal routing of trunk mains, to to stay open (Welsh Water, 2016). zones from 24 to 11 through connecting facilitate the construction of a grid supply Responding to future trends assets; system; and Currently, Welsh Water does not have a grid • Move from 63 to 39 water treatment • Research innovative resilient treatment supply system and there is very little works, which are more resilient to power and control systems, to enable protection connectivity between our areas of supply. For outages, flooding and water quality against treatment related shocks, as well example, in many areas we typically have a contaminants; as deal with emerging cyber and security single source (such as an impounding • Aim to ensure that there is never just a threats. reservoir or river abstraction point), feeding a single point of supply to groups of 5000 Co-operative approach single water treatment works, which is fed by properties or more - the trigger level at a single trunk main to the distribution system. Work with the Drinking Water Inspectorate which an alternative supply, in the event and local authorities to explore whether there When any element of this supply system of an outage, cannot be provided by is scope for Welsh Water to take on further fails, whether due to raw water deterioration, tankering; activities (such as regulation and sampling) treatment process failures, burst pipes or • Build at least 24 hours’ worth of treated so as to address at risk private water extreme weather events, there is no water storage capacity at our treatment supplies in the most efficient manner. redundancy, and fixing the problem can be a works; major and urgent undertaking. • Transition from point to point distribution In the future, there is the potential for systems to grid and ring main supply increased risk of failure of the water systems in urban areas; and treatment system due to increased agricultural run-off, invasive species, extreme • Improve cyber and physical security. weather events, cyber attack and supply Figure 43 : Wentwood reservoir © Arup Welsh Water 2050 54 3. Strategic Responses 3.3 Improving the reliability of drinking water supply systems

Customer promises Customer promises Well-being goals Future trends Clean, safe water for all A resilient Wales A resilient supply system will improve The increased efficiency and the ability of Welsh Water to continue resilience of water supply to provide a reliable source of clean, associated with a grid system will improve the capacity of the system safe water to all its customers into the to cope with change. Avoiding future. unnecessary damage to Safeguard our environment for ecosystems. future generations A prosperous Wales A grid system will allow Welsh Water to use more efficient and less The more efficient use of water environmentally sensitive water resources through a grid system, sources where available, and avoid enhanced customer supply unnecessary damage to ecosystems. resilience and an ability to use cheaper sources of water will contribute to the creation of an Put things right if they go wrong innovative and productive society. A resilient grid supply system will dramatically improve the ability of A Wales of cohesive Welsh Water to respond to shocks and communities stresses on the water supply network. Resilient water supply and treatment systems are essential for Fair bills for everyone the maintenance of strong communities, protecting them from The more efficient distribution of water shocks and stresses and enabling resources in a grid system will reduce them to be viable and safe into the long-term operational costs, and help future. deliver value for money for customers into the future. A better future for all our communities A resilient supply network will help reduce the negative effects associated with supply shocks on communities, especially in rural areas.

Figure 44 : Water supply pipes on the A465. © Arup Welsh Water 2050 55

3. Strategic Responses 3.3 Improving the reliability of drinking water supply systems

We believe that we will need to invest to meet customers’ growing expectations for the reliability of their drinking water supplies; the issue is whether to invest only in the largest supply systems with the greatest number of customers, or whether to also address smaller, single source supply systems. Progressive scenario

Customer outcomes Actions By having a fully resilient water supply system, incorporating the key resilience elements we • Welsh Water will rationalise the number of water treatment works from 63 to 47. will; These treatment works will be refurbished with new software and equipment. They • Create a resilience grid system that allows greater flexibility to supply 1.2 million will be designed for resilience against future shocks through security upgrades customers, who are currently at risk if one of our major water treatment works failed; (including cyber security), flood resilience, power resilience and treatment flexibility. • Reduce the number of customers that are reliant on a single source of supply by 10,266 - This will include the completion of the Merthyr Tydfil Water Treatment Works, which from 337,910 now to 327,644 in 2050; will consolidate 5 ageing assets with limited inter-operability into an integrated • Improve our customer service by reducing the outages that customers experience; conjunctive system; • Be more resilient to extreme weather events such as drought, storms and freeze thaws; • We will connect trunk main systems to reduce the number of water resource zones • Have greater flexibility to deal with things when they go wrong; from 24 to 11; • Have the ability to use cheaper sources of water during periods when we have it; and • We will establish grid systems within urban systems to maximize conjunctive use; • Save operational expenditure as we will require fewer maintenance teams and require • We will build at least 24 hours’ worth of treated water storage capacity at our fewer critical spare parts due to the modernisation of the WTWs. treatment works.

Investment required £600m Total cost £330m

Comprehensive scenario

Customer outcomes Actions As per the progressive scenario with the addition of: As per the progressive scenario with the addition of: + Welsh Water will reduce the number of customers that are reliant on a single source + Welsh Water will further rationalise the number of water treatment works from 47 to of supply by an additional 305,693 from 327,644 now to 21,951 in 2050; 39; + Provide protection for changes in raw water quality and availability to manage the impacts + We will link catchments to provide flexibility of raw water; of climate change and lifestyle changes. + We will consider the options for additional trunk mains to connect water resource zones and reduce the number of water resource zones from 11 to 9; + We will install more than 100km of mains.

Additional investment £900m Additional total cost £599m

Total investment £1.4bn Total cost £929m Welsh Water 2050 56

3. Strategic Responses 3.3 Improving the reliability of drinking water supply systems Current case study: Dolbenmaen water treatment works

In 2015, Welsh Water commissioned a new Result water treatment works in North Wales, As a result of this new water treatment works, replacing two existing assets with a new the following impacts have been achieved: resilient asset. • The new water treatment works is capable Issue of supplying 45,000 people; Cwmystradllyn and Garndolbenmaen water • The treatment processes involved are treatment works were both designed and capable of reducing any previous risks constructed in the 1960s and were therefore associated with the two old treatment not designed to meet current water quality works; standards. Cwmystradllyn in particular had • Cryptosporidium is now sufficiently problems with cryptosporidium and the removed through advanced separation removal of organic matter from the water. and filtration processes as well as This resulted in the formation of unwanted inactivation through the use of ultra-violet components after chlorine treatment, that light; could potentially be hazardous to health. • The formation of unwanted hazardous chemicals has also been reduced through Action taken the installation of advanced chemical A new water treatment works was dosing and separation processes; and constructed at Dolbenmaen with a capacity of • Improved treatment has led to improved 15 million litres per day, capable of providing taste for customers, and removed the clean water to 45,000 people. need for costly re-chlorination of water in the distribution system. The new water treatment works was designed to meet current and future water quality standards by treating the water with new chemical dosing, as well as removing particles and adding chlorine to remove bacteria. There is also additional treated water storage as well as new pipelines to distribute the clean water to homes and businesses. A hydro turbine generator capable of producing electricity was also installed on the water main transporting water from Cwmystradllyn to the new water treatment works. Figure 45 : Photograph showing the new Dolbenmaen Water Treatment Works, Gwynydd, Wales. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 57

3. Strategic Responses 3.3 Improving the reliability of drinking water supply systems Future project: Merthyr Tydfil water treatment works

A series of reservoirs and water treatment • The existing pipeline network would be works in the Brecon Beacons that supply reconfigured to feed the treatment works water to some of the major population from existing reservoirs and ensure centres of South Wales, particularly Cardiff, treated water is supplied to the areas Merthyr Tydfil and the Rhymney Valley, are in currently served by the existing water need of replacement. A project is being treatment works. considered to replace up to five of the Potential result existing treatment works with a new larger works in the Merthyr Tydfil area. As a result of this project, we would hope to Issue achieve: The existing water treatment works were • Higher and more consistent water quality; originally built in the early part of the 20th • Improved flexibility with the existing and century, and these ageing assets have improved network ensuring continuous difficulty in providing a good service in the supply to customers; face of deteriorating raw water quality. The • Lower operational costs; sites have been altered many times over the • Ensuring a resilient water supply for South years and now have limited space for the Wales for the future; and additional treatment capability required to • Supporting a wider South Wales network, manage the emerging problems. The current which supplies water to close to 1 million configuration also provides limited resilience people. to manage supply in the event of problems with poor raw water quality or drought. Actions to be taken

This project would comprise: • Construction of a new treatment works capable of supplying 350,000 households and businesses with water; • The new water treatment works would consist of comprehensive and advanced treatment processes capable of treating water to current quality standards as well as being capable of meeting potential future regulatory changes and emerging new risks to drinking water quality; and Figure 46 : Our supply system north of Cardiff. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 58 3. Strategic Responses 3.4 Protecting our critical water supply assets

With increasing risks of disruption (for example, from severe weather events resulting from climate change and Customer increased reliance on technology) and limited customer tolerance of supply outages, we will improve the resilience promises of critical water assets which have high consequences of failure. Future trends

Customer impact onsite power generation; Customers have some tolerance for brief • Upgrades to treatment works control outages to supply. However, they become systems; increasingly less accepting of outages the • Improvements to treatment flexibility to longer they last. Business customers, even deal with varying raw water conditions; those that are not water dependent, also view such a level of interruption as wholly • Improvements to maintain access; unacceptable (Welsh Water, 2016). • Develop, test and refine business Responding to future trends continuity plans for key assets; and Welsh Water has identified our most critical • Twinning of strategic mains crossing assets, where failure would lead to a under rivers, roads and railways. significant customer service impact. The risk Dams and dam pipework are considered in of failure of these assets due to events such strategic response 2. We have also as cyber attacks, flooding, coastal erosion, recognised the need to develop ‘best and contamination is likely to increase due to practice’ resilience design and operation the trends previously identified, including standards. climate change, land use change, increased Research and innovation use of technology and increased pressure on the supply chain. Welsh Water will explore the following research topics to support this initiative: Strategic response • Commission academic research to assess For these critical assets, Welsh Water has flood risk to critical sites, using a wider made an assessment of the resilience to the historical evidence base than studies to following threats: security, flooding, coastal date; and erosion, catastrophic failure, contamination, loss of power and cyber threat. We propose a • Develop new pipe repair technologies with risk-based approach, targeting assets with a our Alliance and other suitable partners. high consequence of failure first. We have Co-operative approach identified the following measures to improve resilience: This strategic response will focus on innovation and working with suppliers • Complete security upgrades; (especially other national infrastructure • Installation of flood resilience measures providers) to ensure continued reliable around critical assets; service provision. • Improvements to power resilience and Figure 47 : Pontsticill Reservoir. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 59 3. Strategic Responses 3.4 Protecting our critical water supply assets

Customer promises Customer promises Well-being goals Future trends Clean, safe water for all A resilient Wales Resilient assets will improve the ability Full resilience of assets will improve of Welsh Water to continue to provide the capacity of our systems to adapt clean, safe water to all its customers to change. into the future. A prosperous Wales Safeguard our environment for Full resilience of assets, and future generations associated reliability, will contribute More resilient assets will reduce the to an innovative and productive risk of environmental pollution society, and the wealth of Welsh incidents. Water’s customers.

Put things right if they go wrong A healthier Wales More resilient assets will improve the A safe and reliable drinking water ability of Welsh Water to respond to supply will help to ensure good shocks and stresses on the water general health and support the supply network. treatment of poor health amongst the people of Wales. A better future for all our communities A resilient supply network will help reduce the negative effects associated with supply shocks on communities.

Figure 48 : A small Welsh Water UV treatment plant in Herefordshire. © Arup Welsh Water 2050 60

3. Strategic Responses 3.4 Protecting our critical water supply assets

In this case, only a comprehensive response is included, which ensures a high degree of resilience for all those assets for which the consequence of failure is so great that it cannot be mitigated by an operational response, such as rezoning or tankering. It is unnecessary to achieve the same level of protection at all our other assets as their failure can continue to be mitigated through operational means. Comprehensive scenario

Customer outcomes Actions By having resilient water service assets protected against security risks, flooding, coastal • This is a risk based approach focusing on protecting the most strategic and critical erosion, catastrophic failure, pollution, loss of power and cyber threats, we will; water assets, which have a high consequence of failure, which cannot be met with • Meet customer expectations that our service provision resists and recovers from ‘shocks or operational mitigation. The main assets which will be protected in this strategic stresses’, i.e. drought, storms and severe winters; response are: 51 (of 79) impounding reservoirs, 12 (of 680) pumping stations, 15 (of • Reduce the risk of major water supply interruptions; 491) service reservoirs, and 17 (of 63) water treatment works. • Reduce the risk of travel disruption resulting from failure of water mains; • To improve the resilience of these assets, Welsh Water will: • Reduce outages of water treatment works and breaches in public health standards; and • Complete security upgrades; • Reduce the risk of terrorist or cyber disruption of key national infrastructure. • Install flood resilience in and around critical assets; • Improve power resilience and onsite power generation; • Upgrade treatment works control system; • Improve treatment flexibility to deal with varying raw water conditions; • Make improvements to maintain access; • Develop, test and refine business continuity plans for key assets; • Develop resilience design and operation standards; and • Twinning of strategic mains crossings under rivers, roads and railways.

Total investment £150m Total cost £298m Welsh Water 2050 61

3. Strategic Responses 3.4 Protecting our critical water supply assets Current case study: Pontsticill water treatment works

In 2009 Welsh Water identified a risk of Result flooding at Pontsticill water treatment works, As a result of this project, the site flood risk which supplies approximately 100,000 has been reduced to safe levels. properties in South Wales. Investment has been made to protect the works in the instance of flooding and ensure a continued supply of safe drinking water. Issue Detailed flood modelling identified that the site was at risk of flooding from a 1 in 100 year storm from the river which flows through the site. The operators reported occasions of near misses in recent history. This level of flooding would damage some interstage pumping and the second stage filters, meaning that it would not be possible to provide safe water from the site for some time after the flooding subsided. Action taken As part of this project, the following interventions were made: • New flood proof doors were installed on critical buildings; • Ducts to critical buildings were sealed; • The pipe bridge was raised to ensure it does not create a blockage in the event of raised water levels; and • Works were carried out to divert the watercourse using redundant lagoons and provide a bypass in the event of high water levels.

Figure 49: Raised pipe bridge at Pontsticill. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 62

3. Strategic Responses 3.4 Protecting our critical water supply assets Future project: Felindre Main Strengthening

The Felindre trunk main is a major link between South East and South West Wales, allowing for the transfer of treated water to support a number of communities. Issue The 65 km long main is largely a single pipe, travelling close to a major railway, a motorway and crossing several major rivers. In total, 34 risk points have been identified along its length. This means that if it is damaged or bursts then any repair would be difficult and take some considerable time, due to the close proximity to other infrastructure and difficulties with access. Actions to be taken The improvements to the resilience of the main are expected to be undertaken in phases over a number of years. An initial detailed study and site investigation is required to identify options and prioritise projects to progress. The majority of the work is likely to be providing parallel pipes at critical points, so that water can be switched over in the event of a problem and customers’ supply can continue. This will also allow pipes to be maintained and the condition monitored, spotting the warning signs of problems before catastrophic failure. Expected result Improved flexibility ensuring a continuous supply to customers.

Figure 50 : Schematic of Felindre Trunk mains and surrounding infrastructure. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 63 3. Strategic Responses 3.5 Achieving acceptable water quality for all customers

Ageing water mains and more extreme weather events increase the risk of supplying water which is discoloured or Customer has a poor taste. This will be addressed through a targeted replacement of iron mains. promises

Future trends

Customer impact Strategic response Acceptability of water (including colour, taste The strategic response will involve the and odour) is a high cause of customer targeted replacement of up to 11,000km of contacts. We had approximately 7,846 cast iron water mains with more reliable customer contacts in relation to discoloured plastic pipes. water in 2016, an increase from Research and innovation approximately 7,264 contacts in 2015. 80% of these contacts were from customers in just Welsh Water will explore the following 24% of water supply zones, indicating a research topics to support this strategic concentration of issues in poorly served response: areas. Customer complaints in relation to • Undertake holistic zonal studies to discoloured water are the one area of our prioritise pipe replacement and maximise performance which is behind that of other UK the positive impact on customer service; water companies, partly due to ageing iron mains and partly due to the nature of raw • Develop more cost effective methods of water from our upland catchments. pipe replacement including no dig techniques; In initial PR19 research, customers noted the need for pipes to be repaired as and when • Research and develop more efficient pipe required but also the need to ensure these materials and jointing; are replaced with new materials to ensure • Develop new reinstatement technologies; supply is future proofed (Accent, 2013). and Responding to future trends • Research new pipe cleaning techniques 40% of Welsh Water’s water mains (including self cleaning). (11,000km of the 27,500km) are cast iron. Co-operative approach These pipes currently have reliability issues, This strategic response will involve working and on average experience 30 bursts per closely with other utilities, highways and the 1,000km of pipe (compared to 6 per 1,000km general public to prevent major disruption to for plastic pipes). communities. Climate change is predicted to cause more extreme temperatures, and these extreme temperatures, combined with ground movements and changes in water pressures, are likely to increase the likelihood of burst pipes in the future. Cast iron pipes can also have issues with discoloured water, contributing to customer complaints. Figure 51 : Some of our younger stakeholders. We want all of our customers to have access to good quality water. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 64 3. Strategic Responses 3.5 Achieving acceptable water quality for all customers

Customer promises Customer promises Well-being goals Future trends Clean, safe water for all A resilient Wales Replacement of water mains with The improved resilience associated appropriate materials will improve the with appropriate materials will ability of Welsh Water to continue increase the ability of the network to providing clean, safe drinking water cope with climate change. that customers can rely on in to the future. An equal Wales Put things right when they go wrong Providing a more resilient water Replacement of water mains will supply to communities, who reduce the need for reactive experience repeated supply maintenance, and help to reduce the outages, such as those with the problems of supply outages, water oldest supply pipes often in the discolouration and low pressure. most deprived regions, to ensure a resilient water supply is enjoyed A better future for all our equally by our customers. communities Increased resilience of supply will help A Wales of Cohesive reduce the negative effects associated Communities with supply outages on communities, Reducing repeat supply outages will especially those which are ensure some communities do not disproportionately affected by outages perceive themselves as less at present. important to Welsh Water.

Figure 52 : An illustration of the ownership structure of water supply pipes. © Welsh Water. Welsh Water 2050 65

3. Strategic Responses 3.5 Achieving acceptable water quality for all customers Improving the acceptability of water quality for customers is a current priority for us: the issue is whether to focus that investment in areas where the impact on customers is concentrated or whether to extend this approach across all areas. Progressive scenario

Customer outcomes Actions By targeted replacement of iron mains with modern, plastic mains across these zones, we will: • We will complete the implementation of the recommendations of zonal studies for • Reduce customer contacts from 2.9 acceptability contacts per 1,000 population to 0.8-1.3 the 24% of zones where 80% of contacts come from, comprising the replacement of acceptability contacts per 1,000 population; around 500km of water mains, in AMP 7; • Reduce Customer Minutes Lost to supply below 7 minutes (average per customer per • We will complete the zonal studies for the remaining zones (54 out of 83); and year) from around 15 minutes at present; • We will replace 500km of iron mains per Asset Management Period (AMP) from • Reduce leakage by 7%; AMP8 (2025-2030) to AMP12 (2045-2050), targeted by zonal studies, and • Improve reliability of supply and reduce bursts by 14%; comprising 2,500km in total. • Improve water quality for 5,120 customers; • Support our strategy to achieve ‘Calm Networks’; • Remove iron failures and improve the quality of drinking water; and • Reduce operational costs through reduced pipe bursts, call outs and leak repairs.

Investment required £600m Total cost £446m

Comprehensive scenario

Customer outcomes Actions As per the progressive scenario with the addition of: As per the progressive scenario with the addition of: + Reduce Customer Minutes Lost to supply below 3 minutes (average per customer per + We will replace a further 8,000km of iron mains to improve water quality for our year); customers. + Improve reliability of supply and reduce bursts by an additional 46%; + Improve water quality for an additional 2,560 customers; + Reduce customer contacts to 0.5-1.0 acceptability contacts per 1,000 population; and + Reduce leakage by an additional 23% through reduced pipe bursts.

Additional investment £1.8bn Additional total cost £1.32bn

Total investment £2.4bn Total cost £1.76bn Welsh Water 2050 66

3. Strategic Responses 3.5 Achieving acceptable water quality for all customers Current case study: Zonal Studies

Zonal Studies are analytical reviews of water and quality, hydraulic and customer performance • Completed approximately 30 schemes for data to determine investment options within network contingency and pressure an individual water quality zone, of which we management. have 83 across our supply network. To achieve our performance commitments Our customers will notice major across a variety of network measures, we improvements in the water supply reliability must intervene and replace some of our old and quality. pipework. Replacing this old pipework Result improves our customer service in a number of ways: quality of drinking water, customer There has been an annual reduction of: minutes lost and acceptability of water. • approximately 130 unplanned interruptions to supply; Issue • 1,800 customer contacts for discoloured Welsh Water have a number of iron mains water; and that are corroded and at risk of failure. Their failure would cause significant disruption to • 7 drinking water quality failures. supply and/or discoloured water complaints. Next steps Action taken Following on from the success of the AMP6 Welsh Water have: investment in zonal studies in the poorest performing areas, we are proposing • Prioritised poor performing water supply continued investing in this initiative. Our zones and pipework covering 14 zones vision is to ensure that our customers will be and a population of approximately able to trust that the water they drink meets 860,000 people; high standards of quality all the time, and • Completed 203km of pipeline renewals – always looks and tastes good. This is a process of removing the old pipework from the supply system and replacing it with modern materials such as plastic; • Undertaken 200 surveys, prioritising what pipes should be surveyed to ensure we assess and catalogue the condition of our pipes: • Cleansed 703km of network cleansed;

Figure 53 : Iron pipe corrosion. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 67 3. Strategic Responses 3.6 Towards a lead free Wales

We have the opportunity to help improve public health, and propose a targeted replacement of lead communication Customer and supply pipes, as part of a wider societal effort to address lead in drinking water. promises

Future trends

Customer impact Responding to future trends Strategic response Research and innovation Welsh Water has a good record on Water utilities are the utility provider which This strategic response will involve four Welsh Water will explore the following compliance with water quality standards, does not own assets to point of use. This can programmes to mitigate the risks of lead research topics to support this strategic including those relating to lead (Glas Cymru, cause confusion amongst customers, and a pipes replacement: response: 2016). rise in complaints. • Replacement of all communication and • Research the impact of lead in drinking There are known adverse health effects of It is estimated that in 25% of homes lead supply pipes by Welsh Water where water to public health (Water Health excessive, long term lead exposure. Lead is (380,000) in Wales have lead pipes, most of higher than normal lead sample readings Partnership); a cumulative toxin that affects multiple body which are owned by the customer. The Water have been identified (even though these • New techniques and technologies for pipe systems, and prolonged exposure can, in Strategy for Wales recognises that will typically still meet all the required replacement or remediation technology; extreme cases, have serious consequences transferring a portion of privately owned pipes health standards); and such as a reduced IQ and behavioural to water companies could be part of the • Replacement of lead supply pipes problems. Children and expectant mothers solution to the problems associated with lead • Contributing to Welsh Government’s amongst vulnerable customer groups, consultation on supply pipe adoption. are particularly vulnerable. (Welsh Government, 2015a). through the Welsh Governments ‘Arbed’ Most customers experience no issues with It is estimated that 25% of Welsh Water’s and ‘Nest’ schemes for households with Co-operative approach drinking water quality, and we comply with leakage is from lead supply pipes. They are expectant mothers and children under 6; This strategic response involves working World Health Organisation drinking water at increased risks of bursts due to freeze • Replacement of lead supply pipes by closely with government, the Drinking Water standards 99.71% of the time in 2016. thaw, an issue that will be exacerbated by Welsh Water when found during meter Inspectorate and plumbing standards bodies, However, customers who are aware of the climate change and increased cold weather installations; and to contribute to legislation and policy change. risks following a lead failure or the detection events. Customers are responsible for We will also engage landlords and home of lead solder at their property, can become maintenance of these pipes, and replacement • Offering grants to all customers who owners (with a focus on Local Authorities and anxious about potential health effects, typically costs several hundred pounds. approach Welsh Water if they find lead residential social landlords) to encourage the pipes. particularly when children live in the property. Lead in drinking water is a societal issue in replacement of lead supply pipes and the It is also possible that there could be which we are planning to play our part. If Welsh Government placed a requirement plumbing industry to end use of lead solder. tightened health standards for lead toxins in Currently Welsh Water does not have on Welsh Water to replace of all lead supply the future. responsibility for customer owned supply pipes, it would require a change in legislation pipes nor, therefore, the ability to require and would cost an estimated £650m. them to be changed. We are, however, willing to be an active participant in exploring wider lead pipe replacement with Welsh Government, as part of a wide societal effort to address lead in drinking water. Welsh Water 2050 68 3. Strategic Responses 3.6 Towards a lead free Wales

Customer promises Customer promises Well-being goals Future trends Clean, safe water for all A resilient Wales Safe and resilient customer supply More robust non-lead supply pipes pipes will help Welsh Water supply will increase the ability of these clean, safe water into the future. assets to cope with climate change.

Fair bills for everyone An equal Wales Working with stakeholders to help The phased replacement of lead vulnerable customers with lead supply piping, initially targeting the most pipes to replace them with safe, vulnerable and those with the least modern alternatives. ability to pay will help to promote health amongst all customers, A better future for all our equally. communities Reducing the health effects associated A healthier Wales with lead piping will help to improve the Reducing the health effects health of Welsh Water’s customers and associated with lead piping will help create a better future for communities. to improve the health of Welsh Water’s customers.

Figure 54 : Pipe replacement. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 69

3. Strategic Responses 3.6 Towards a lead free Wales

Given the benefit to public health, we believe that we have a role to play in addressing the issue of lead supply pipes. However, we do not present a comprehensive scenario for the replacement of all lead supply pipes in Wales because we are not legally responsible for customers’ supply pipes. Should the Welsh Government wish water companies to replace all lead supply pipes, a legislative change would be required. Progressive scenario

Customer outcomes Actions Over time, this will reduce the background levels of lead in drinking water, leading to improved Whilst customer supply pipes are not Welsh Water’s legal responsibility, we have public health, particularly for children and expectant mothers. It will also improve water fittings responsibility for water quality at customers’ taps. In the progressive scenario, we have compliance and quality through direct contact and engagement with WaterSafe accredited proposed four programmes involving the targeted replacement of lead supply pipes, plumbers and will also provide the added benefit of reducing supply pipe leakage. where there would be a benefit to public health. The four programmes are: • Replace all communication and supply lead pipes (estimated at 140 pipes a year) when we have a sample reading of more than 5 micrograms Pb/litre, which is half the prescribed health standard; • Replace lead supply pipes for vulnerable customer groups identified through Welsh Government’s Arbed project (approximately 6,560 properties over 15 years) and Nest (approximately 15,940 over 15 years) scheme for households with: • Expectant mothers; and • Children under age 6. • Replace lead when found during meter installations (approximately 1,500 per annum), including supply and communication pipe replacement; and • Offer grants for lead pipe replacement to customers who approach Welsh Water if they find lead pipes (approximately £750 per grant).

Total investment £45m Total cost £33m Welsh Water 2050 70

3.7 Addressing our ‘worst served’ customers

Faced with increasing customer expectations for a good service at all times, we will address the longstanding Customer service complaints of ‘worst served customers’ to ensure that everyone receives an acceptable level of service. promises

Future trends

Customer impact Responding to future trends • Prevent low pressure; Welsh Water Return of Value research Currently Welsh Water have 425 households • Resolve odour complaints; showed that there is strong customer support who suffer frequent problems ‘Worst Served’. • Eliminate sewer flooding; for investment to improve the service they These include low pressure, discoloured receive from Welsh Water, particularly for water, loss of supply, sewer flooding, and • Resolve issues of interruption to supply; those who suffer repeat incidents of poor asset odour. and service. Targeted service improvements for In part, these issues arise because we • Replace pipes in worst performing areas those customers suffering from repeat prioritise investment that has the potential to for water discolouration. service failure ranked third in priority out of benefit a significant number of customers. Research and innovation the six options given (Return of Value This cost-benefit approach means that high Welsh Water will explore the following research, Fresh Minds, 2016). cost solutions for individual, often rural, research topics to support this strategic ‘Worst served’ customers are currently customers are not undertaken. Changing response: defined as those who: customer and societal expectations may • Develop, through our innovation process • Have reported discoloured drinking water make this cost-benefit approach and with Alliance partners, innovative at least once every year in the past three unacceptable, as all customers are entitled to ‘small’ capital solutions such as low cost years; a minimum universal service standard. ‘package pumping stations’ to resolve Strategic response • Have reported that they have no water at issues for our ‘worst served’ customers; least once every year in the past three This strategic response includes: and years; • The development of a suite of minimum • Continue involvement with aligned • Have complained about odour emanating service standards for all customers research programmes such as UKWIR, from our assets at least once every year irrespective of cost-benefit constraints; Cardiff University Water Institute, Pennine in the past three years • A commitment to automatically suspend Water Group / Sheffield University • Have experienced internal sewer flooding water or sewerage charges in the event of (PODDS) to investigate ways to reduce in the past year, and at least once in the service quality failures; discoloured water. previous ten years (excluding cases • Schemes to prevent low pressure, resolve Co-operative approach where the cause is a pumping station that odour complaints, eliminate sewer We will need to work closely with our has recently transferred ownership); or flooding, prevent water outages, and customers and communities to understand • Have remained on the DG2 register for reduce water discolouration; the impact of our operations on them. low water pressure for the past three • Automatically suspend water or sewerage We will work with our university partners and years, without sufficient remedial action to charges in the event of service quality our supply chain to develop low cost capital resolve their issue. failures; solutions. Figure 55 : Flooding in Llechryd. By Morien Jones, Creative Commons License (CC BY 2.0) Welsh Water 2050 71

3.7 Addressing our ‘worst served’ customers

Customer promises Customer promises Well-being goals Future trends Clean, safe water for all An equal Wales Tackling low pressure and interruptions Addressing the needs of all our to supply will ensure all customers customers will contribute to a receive a clean, safe water supply that society where all communities can they can rely on. fulfil their potential.

Put things right if things go wrong Replacing pipes, addressing low pipe A prosperous Wales pressure, interruptions to supply and Proactively tackling issues and preventing sewer flooding will all help ensuring there are no worst served to create resilient water and waste customers, including businesses, water systems that are less prone to will contribute to creating an failure. innovative and productive society. Personal service that’s right for you Ensuring the needs of all customers are met will help to create an effective service for all customers into the future.

Fair bills for everyone Customers won’t be charged if they are not receiving the prescribed minimum acceptable service standard.

Figure 56 : Flooding in Penarth. By Ben Salter, Creative Commons License (CC BY 2.0) Welsh Water 2050 72

3. Strategic Responses 3.7. Addressing our ‘worst served’ customers

We believe that we need to recognise that a small number of our customers do not receive an acceptable level of service; the issue is whether to reflect this by providing a free service, or whether to carry out often expensive projects to address the specific underlying causes. Progressive scenario

Customer outcomes Actions Whilst not addressing instances of repeated poor service (for example, poor taste, odour or The 425 customers with poor service, ‘Worst Served Customers’, will not be charged low water pressure) that do not present a health and safety risk to our customers, all for the service. customers with such issues will not be charged for the relevant service until an acceptable level of service is provided.

Investment required £0m Net cost (1) £6m

Comprehensive scenario

Customer outcomes Actions This response will result in us proactively tackling issues for customers who often have long As per the progressive scenario with the addition of: standing instances of poor service by giving their problems increased priority, helping us to improve our standing with customers and consumer groups. Operating costs will also be + Tackle 32 repeated low water pressure complaints and 29 odour complaints; reduced by lower reactive repairs and call outs. + Replace pipes causing repeated discolouration problems, which currently only affect 35 customers outside the worst performing zones (the worst performing zones are addressed in strategic response 5); + Resolve issues of interruption to supply affecting 273 customers; and + Resolve internal sewer flooding for 56 customers.

(1) Net cost for the progressive scenario represents the loss of income from bill rebates to customers. Additional investment £240m Additional net cost £207m

Total investment £240m Total net cost £213m Welsh Water 2050 73

3. Strategic Responses 3.7 Addressing our ‘worst served’ customers Current case study: Carway Street flood alleviation scheme, Burry Port

Need The traditional approach to addressing sewer The Carway Street scheme was primarily flooding is to upsize sewers and sewage developed to mitigate flooding of 8 properties pumping stations. However this approach is in three different locations in Burry Port; expensive and, particularly where increased Carway Street, Gors Road and Pemberton pumping is required, not considered to be Avenue. The properties had flooded up to sustainable. Our flood alleviation scheme three times and were assessed to have more philosophy is therefore based on our than a 10% chance of flooding in any one RainScape initiative, which is to disconnect year. surface storm water flows from the existing combined sewage systems and convey these The flooding was caused by surcharging of flows to a suitable outfall discharge point. the sewer network. This was due to the age of the sewers and growth in the catchment The approach was adopted to reduce the risk which had resulted in flows that were greater of flooding at Burry Port as the upsizing of the than those originally designed for, particularly existing sewers could not be justified on cost during storm conditions. grounds. The proposed solution therefore incorporated the removal of storm water flows As well as reducing the risk of flooding, the discharging to the existing combined sewer scheme also addressed the following needs: network and conveying these via 400m of Figure 57a : Flooding on Carway Street. © Welsh Water • Reduced the number of spills at the Burry new storm sewer to a suitable outfall Port sewage pumping station; discharge point at Burry Port Docks. This • Provided capacity to enable future work included the installation of 72m of economic development; and 1,200mm diameter tunnel to act as a storm • Provided resilience against climate water siphon beneath the existing railway change. line. Solution description As a result of the scheme, the 8 properties are protected against flooding for rainfall An extensive survey of the sewage system events up to and including the 1 in 30 year and catchment in Burry Port was undertaken return period. to identify the causes of flooding. This included CCTV, manhole, topographic and The total cost of the scheme was £2.6m, or connectivity surveys of the sewage systems. an average cost of £325,000 per customer These investigations identified lengths of who directly benefitted from the scheme. sewer, including two sewer siphons under the local railway line, which had insufficient capacity to pass storm flows.

Figure 57b : Carway Street flood alleviation scheme. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 74

3. Strategic Responses 3.7 Addressing our ‘worst served’ customers Future case study: Swansea Bay Wastewater Treatment Works - odour mitigation scheme

Need a new odour control plant, located above ground at the site. The construction of the Swansea Bay wastewater treatment works was completed The scope of works for this solution includes: in 1998. The wastewater treatment works • New chemical scrubbing odour control was constructed below ground and plant incorporating scrubbing towers, re- incorporated systems to manage odour. circulation pumps, chemical storage In recent years, there have been growing tanks, chemical dosing pumps and complaints regarding odour associated with associated instrumentation; the Swansea Bay wastewater treatment • Replacement of existing ventilation and works (in particular during the warmer extraction system, including fans and associated ducting; Swansea summer periods). The odours in 2015, were wastewater particularly a concern locally, with impacts on • A new control kiosk; and people using Fabian Way, one of the main • Removal of existing odour control plant treatment routes into Swansea, and customer and ancillaries. works properties in the Crumlin Burrows and Port Tennant areas. The situation deteriorated The total cost of the scheme will be £2.1m. through October 2015 and resulted in a Facebook page being set up, which around 100 people joined, and prompted media enquiries.

Welsh Water have been working closely with the local community and Swansea City Council to resolve the ongoing issues at the site. A refurbishment of the ventilation system and air scrubbing process at the site has recently been completed, which has helped mitigate the problem in the short term, however a longer term solution is required.

Solution description

A number of potential solutions have been considered for the site to resolve the odour issues. The preferred solution is to construct

Figure 58 : The local of Swansea Wastewater Treatment Works in relation to the city centre. © Google Welsh Water 2050 75 3. Strategic Responses 3.8 Employer of choice

With an ageing workforce, an increasing shortage of technically skilled employees and more flexible working Customer behaviours, we will need to continue to be an employer of choice; attracting, training and retaining the best people promises to deliver excellent customer service. Future trends

Customer impact embrace new digital technology with • Talent and Resource Plan – embedding Employee behaviours and attitudes, increasing speed. the responsibility for managers to develop especially the ability to deal with problems The UK and Wales’ ageing population is their teams and succession plans at every and complaints, were key differentiators for reflected in our workforce. Addressing the level in the business; the top performing organisations in a recent challenges and opportunities this presents, • Lean and Service Excellence – Institute of Customer Service report. There is and effectively planning for succession, will embedding a culture where employees compelling evidence of the link between continue to be key elements of our continually seek out increasingly efficient good customer satisfaction and high levels of recruitment and wellbeing strategies. and innovative ways of working; and trust, and increased employee engagement The water industry has historically been male • Employer of Choice - utilising new (Institute of Customer Service, 2016). dominated and although we have made technology and latest recruiting methods Our best practice visits to ‘best in class’ progress by uplifting from 21% in 2012 to to attract diverse new talent with a customer service institutions have highlighted 28% females in 2017, we need to take further passion for delivering a great customer the link between employee engagement and action if we are to achieve the business experience. Investing in the continuous customer satisfaction, and 90% of our benefits of a diverse workforce, especially in development of all employees, promoting employees now say we put customers first. STEM roles. innovation and securing retention of key Responding to future trends Some historical working patterns and knowledge and skills; Large long term investment projects practices create particular challenges when • Leadership development - we will (including Hinkley Point, Wylfa Newydd, Tidal meeting customers’ demand for 24/7 service, continue to equip our leaders and aspiring Lagoon Swansea Bay) could increase the the physical capabilities of an ageing leaders with contemporary coaching, mobility of labour and competition for key workforce and the need to increase the mentoring and people management skills skills. proportion of female employees. via our Institute of Leadership Management accredited programme; Welsh Water relies heavily on Science, Strategic response Technology, Engineering and Mathematics The strategic response will include: • Female leadership – we will roll out our ‘Female Leader Retreat’ programme to (STEM) roles. The UK annual shortfall of • Health, safety and well-being strategy – STEM skilled employees is estimated at promote diversity of leadership in our demanding safe behaviour and ways of organisation; 40,000 workers, thus requiring significant working, becoming a smoke free investment in graduates and apprentices and business, well-being champions • Customer focused employees – We will proactive retention strategies by STEM supporting employees with both develop, coach and continually assess reliant businesses. temporary and permanent mental health our colleagues on both a team and Changing customer expectations and a move illness, achieving and maintaining the individual basis to enhance our to a digital economy means that our people Welsh Government Platinum Corporate customers’ experience when they interact need to possess a flexible customer focused Health Standard; with us, irrespective of which media they attitude and be able to learn new skills, and choose to use; Figure 59 : Two of our employees examining one of our assets. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 76 3. Strategic Responses 3.8 Employer of choice

Customer promises

Future trends

• Strong employee relations – Welsh to work with and learn from partnering • Employability - we will expand the number Research and innovation Water’s ‘Working Together Agreement’ with Chwarae Teg, WISE, Stonewall and of internships and work experience • We will continue to work with Welsh and forms the basis of our partnership Time to Change Wales to develop a placements we offer every year and UK universities (MSc, chartership approach with our Trade Unions. In place modern and inclusive workplace; promote them through our schools, sponsorship, Innovation Development for nearly 25 years, this joint problem • Zero tolerance of discrimination - we will colleges and university contacts. Programme) to access the latest research solving approach provides a strong ensure that all our people are aware of Moreover, we will continue to offer our and identify and implement contemporary foundation for employee relations. Our our zero-tolerance approach to any form employability skills programme both ways of working; and mutual aims to provide a high quality internally and externally, with a particular or harassment or discrimination through Co-operative approach working environment with good terms and educations films, e-learning and emphasis on equipping women with the conditions and opportunities for workshops; skills to secure employment and • We will work with our research partners to development, have provided a solid promotion; implement modern ways of working to • Promoting diversity – We will promote and platform for progressive levels of flexibility • Apprenticeships - we will expand our build excellent levels of trust and loyalty and service to our customers. support activities to ensure we retain with our employees; existing talent and continue to attract new apprenticeship programme to reflect the • Creating an inclusive environment and talent from all minority groups. Our skills we need for the future, for example, • We will work with Government, charities promoting diversity - changing behaviours recruitment campaigns will celebrate our data science and cyber security and and other interest group to develop a to create a fully inclusive, engaging Welsh commitment to creating an inclusive promote opportunities widely to schools more inclusive workplace with greater Water. Our leaders will be role models of culture; and higher education institutions. Our diversity, particularly in STEM roles; and inclusive behaviour to ensure all education and talent development teams • We will work in partnership with schools, employees feel safe and able to be • Engaging young people – we will will actively support Welsh Government’s universities and suppliers to develop the themselves at work. We also will facilitate nominate STEM Ambassadors within our STEM (science, technology, engineering Welsh Water Technical Academy diversity and inclusivity training for all our business, and give them the resources and maths) delivery plan for Wales; programme. people, giving them the tools they need to they need to engage with young people across our operating area. In partnership • Graduates – we will continue to invest in mitigate the effect of unconscious bias. graduate schemes for STEM and other We will nominate inspiring leaders to with STEM Cymru and the Engineering Education Scheme Wales, we will core skills we rely on, such as data champion inclusivity activities and science and IT; and promote the benefits of a diverse continue to offer experience days. We will workforce and inclusive culture. We will also continue to support workshops that • Welsh Water technical academy - develop encourage networking across provide young people with key skills that a Welsh Water Technical Academy (in communities, learn from partnering with are relevant to our business, through our partnership with Welsh universities, Chwarae Teg and Stonewall and Welsh Baccalaureate resource. We will colleges, schools and suppliers) to ensure celebrate events such as International encourage our leaders and aspiring sufficient and well-trained technicians to Women’s Day and Pride Cymru; leaders to mentor disadvantaged young operate the increasingly sophisticated people to encourage them to pursue a control processes of the future. • Working in partnership - we will continue career with us; Welsh Water 2050 77 3. Strategic Responses 3.8 Employer of choice

Customer promises Customer promises Well-being goals Future trends Clean, safe water for everyone A more equal Wales Increasing operator knowledge, skills Promoting equal opportunities to and competency will ensure a high join Welsh Water, and promoting quality service. the development of all individuals, regardless of age, gender, race, Safeguard our environment for religion, disability, sexual orientation future generations or other protected characteristics, Increasing operator knowledge, skills will contribute to a more equal and competency will contribute to Wales. protecting the environment. A healthier Wales Supporting employees to improve Put it right if things go wrong their health and wellbeing will Developing and enhancing employee improve health within the workplace skills and ability to use the latest and local communities. technological solutions will lead to faster resolution of issues. A prosperous Wales Personal service that’s right for you Supporting high quality jobs in our organisation and our supply chain, Developing and empowering customer that allow our employees to develop teams to problem solve at the earliest and flourish, will support an point of contact will enhance customer innovative and productive society satisfaction. A Wales of vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language Supporting high quality jobs in our organisation and our supply chain will help to make employment available to a diverse range of communities, including bilingual ones.

Figure 60 : One of our employees at one of our assets. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 78

3. Strategic Responses 3.8 Employer of choice

We believe it will be essential to employ highly qualified and engaged people if we are going to deliver excellent service for our customers and, therefore we have only put forward a comprehensive scenario.

Comprehensive scenario

Actions Customer outcomes • We will take care of our employees through our health, safety and wellbeing strategy; This scenario will ensure we have: • We will create the Welsh Water Technical Academy - a suite of training programmes • Healthy, engaged employees with low absence rates and low staff turnover; designed to continually up-skill our employees; • The knowledge and skills, to provide excellent customer service; • We will continue to equip our leaders and aspiring leaders with contemporary coaching, • The ability to attract the best possible people from all parts of the community by being mentoring and people management skills via our Institute of Leadership Management inclusive and allowing everyone to be themselves at work; accredited programme, and by providing access to high quality female leadership and • An increasing proportion of applicants and new employees who are women and from non- business school programmes; traditional and deprived backgrounds; and • We will ensure team development through Talent and Resource Plans; • A diverse workforce, which helps us to access diverse skills and make better decisions. • We will develop, coach and continually assess our employees; • We will embed a culture which promotes efficient and innovative ways of working; • We will attract highly skilled and motivated employees by utilising new technology and the latest recruiting methods, and through competitive remuneration packages and best in class graduate development and apprenticeship programmes; • We will improve our diversity, gender balance in our workforce; • We will create an inclusive environment where every employee feels safe and able to be themselves at work; • We will implement new initiatives to mitigate the effects of unconscious bias, and continue to identify new opportunities for improving our gender balance; • We will nominate inspiring leaders to champion inclusivity activities and promote the benefits of a diverse workforce and inclusive culture; • We will ensure a zero tolerance approach to harassment and discrimination; • We will encourage networking across communities, learn from partnering with Chwarae Teg, WISE, Stonewall and Time to Change Wales and celebrate events such as International Women’s Day, Pride Cymru and Time to Talk; • We will engage young people through STEM ambassadors, experience days, workshops, our Welsh Baccalaureate resource and the Engineering Education Scheme; • We will expand our offering of internships, work experience placements, and our employability skills programme; • We will encourage our leaders and aspiring leaders to mentor disadvantaged, young people to encourage them to pursue a career with us; and • We will expand our apprenticeship programme to ensure we have the skills we need for the future, for example, data science, IT and cyber security.

Total investment Total cost £126m Welsh Water 2050 79 3. Strategic Responses 3.9 Leading edge customer service

Changing customer expectations, the digital revolution and demographic and lifestyle change are all leading Welsh Customer Water to develop a customer service culture. We will harness technological change to provide a personalised promises service for customers through their preferred contact channel. Future trends

Importance for customers to embrace emerging collaborative systems Our research indicates that our customers for common goals including open data, want a say in how Welsh Water is run, given crowdsourcing, and co-creation. These that we provide a vital public service. It also initiatives could harness our customer base shows that trust amongst our customers rests and allow them to be part of a process that on three key factors: shapes our future as an organisation. • Perceived value for money; Customers will expect significant changes to the way they communicate with companies • Perception of customer service; and and the speed with which problems are • Familiarity with the company, its purpose, resolved. The challenge for Welsh Water is and the work that we do. not only to keep up with the wide variety of emerging communications channels, but also Responding to future trends the expanding ranges of devices that are Customers’ expectations are driven by the connected to intelligent technologies (the digital revolution, demographic and lifestyle internet of things) including smart meters and change and a profound shift in their other sensors. relationship with organisations and collective institutions. Due to an increase in available customer information our customers will expect us to automatically understand their needs and offer them a service personalised for their individual circumstances. It will be vital that we build a better understanding of our different customer groups, to ensure that we can tailor our services to meet all of their needs, when it is convenient to each customer and in the way that they want it. With the increasing ease of access to information, customers are becoming better informed, more critical and demanding, resulting in decreasing loyalty towards organisations. There is an opportunity for us Figure 61 : On of our employees. We want to make sure they are fully equipped to meet the needs of our customers. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 80 3. Strategic Responses 3.9 Leading edge customer service

Customer promises

Future trends

We serve a diverse range of customer engagement to better target and programme in the energy sector); example, 360º cameras and virtual and groups, including vulnerable customers and personalise our customer services; • Give customers a strong voice in day-to- augmented reality) to respond and check business customers. Business customers will • Ensuring the company is recognised by day and long-term business planning by customer issues on first contact before a increasingly expect better usage data, water customers, stakeholders and regulators using innovative engagement tools and physical visit; efficiency support and flexible billing. It is vital for the significant positive contribution it communities to inform our decisions, • The link between employee engagement that we have the right information to meet makes to our communities; and whilst taking full advantage of open data and customer service to better understand their specific needs through appropriate • Ensuring that we use data and implement and big data analytics; and the impact of the company culture and access to information and tailored methods of management on the service it provides; communicating and engaging with them. appropriate segmentation to fully meet the • Ensure that customers will automatically diverse needs of business customers. be placed on the lowest tariff for their • The development of automated, Strategic response Welsh Water will: personal circumstance, helping to keep instantaneous translation capabilities; and Welsh Water’s vision is to “earn the trust of bills affordable for all. This will require • Provide a personalised service for • Using behavioural economics to inform customers every day” and to achieve this appropriate access to government data. our behavioural change campaigns such requires embracing a customer-led approach customers through their preferred Research and innovation Let’s Stop the Block and water efficiency. by: communication channel, and in the language of their choice. Co-operative approach • Coaching and regularly assessing and Welsh Water will do further research into: developing all customer-facing teams to • Ensure our business customers are given • Emerging customer contact technology We will partner with other organisations to enhance our customers’ experience; access to usage data, water efficiency systems, and future trends in order to support our aims, including working with support and flexible billing in a manner meet customer expectations, improve other agencies and charities to help our • Becoming a customer-centric culture that tailored to their business needs; customers who are in need. delivers a consistent, sector-leading and service and reduce cost; personalised service at every interaction, • Develop a mature and integrated • Automation and use of artificial We will co-operate with government across a widening range of technological customer data, research and engagement intelligence to improve the accuracy and departments and other utilities, to share and physical platforms; function that is central to the company’s consistency of the service it provides essential data that allows us to tailor our decision-making and business planning customers (for example, potential future services for vulnerable customers. • Becoming a joined-up, integrated processes; business where everyone is focused on use of chatbots); We will seek to learn from best practice customer service; • Embrace artificial intelligence to improve • Open data and big data analytics to tailor across all sectors and invite our customers to the efficiency of the service and use our approach to customer engagement, join an “online community” to have a regular • Listening and reacting to customers’ predictive analytics to identify potential say on our day-to-day decision making and views and priorities both on a day-to-day based on their individual needs and service failures before any impact on aspirations; longer term business planning. basis and in terms of longer term customers; planning. For example, through the use of • Identifying innovative communication and We will partner with local authorities, Natural online customer communities to test and • Use new smart technology to give co-creation channels to ensure Resources Wales and other stakeholder support our plans; customers greater control over the customers’ views are fully reflected in groups to realise the additional public health services they receive and increase the decision making and business planning; and well-being benefits of our projects, such • Improving the use of data analytics, transparency of the cost to them (for as recreation. artificial intelligence, customer insight and example, building on the smart metering • Using emerging smart technologies (for Welsh Water 2050 81 3. Strategic Responses 3.9 Leading edge customer service

Customer promises Customer promises Well-being goals Future trends Put things right if things go wrong A more equal Wales We will provide a swift resolution of Welsh Water will support the most customer issues that is consistent vulnerable customers who are across the services we provide. struggling to pay their water bills by offering and promoting social tariffs and financial assistance. Personal service that’s right for you Welsh Water will provide personalised A Wales of vibrant culture and digital account management and issues thriving Welsh Language tracking. We will use available data to Welsh Water will continue to offer segment our customer services and its customers services in both offerings in order to provide the most English and Welsh – whichever is relevant and personalised service, their preferred language of contact. particularly for vulnerable, disadvantaged and business customers. Customers will be able to A globally responsible Wales contact us in the language and through Welsh Water will continue to the channel of their choice. educate its customers through the promotion of water efficiency, Fair bills for everyone environmental protection and personal behavioural change By using emerging digital technologies campaigns. and artificial intelligence, we will reduce our costs by becoming more efficient in how we deal with customers and resolving their issues. Customers will automatically be put on the lowest tariff for their circumstances.

Figure 62 : Our customers at an engagement event. We’re committed to providing the very best customer service, for all of our customers. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 82

3. Strategic Responses 3.9 Leading edge customer service

We believe that it will be essential to keep up with customers’ rapidly growing expectations for service and value for money, and so we have only included one comprehensive scenario. Given the very rapid pace of technological change, we will need to demonstrate great flexibility in how we respond to this challenge and opportunity in the longer term, drawing on ‘best practice’ from all sectors of the economy. Comprehensive scenario

Customer outcomes Actions • Significant improvement in the rate of resolution of customers’ issues on first contact; • We will provide a personalised service for customers through their preferred • Reduced customer complaints; communication channel, when they want it and in the language of their choice; • Sector leading customer trust, satisfaction levels and perception of value for money, • We will ensure that business customers have equal access to added value services, amongst both household and business customers; such as water efficiency advice, that meet their individual needs; • Better engagement with our diverse range of customer groups; • We will develop a mature and integrated customer data, research and engagement • All business customers, will have equal access to added value services as other business function that is central to the company’s decision-making and business planning customers do in the UK and competitive value for money; processes; • Strong customer engagement and involvement; • We will embrace artificial intelligence to improve the consistency of the service we • Customers will have greater control over the services they receive and increased provide and use predictive analytics to identify potential service failures before any transparency of the cost to them; impact on customers; • Customers will have a strong voice in day-to-day and long-term business planning by using • We will appropriately adopt new smart technology to give customers greater control innovative engagement tools and communities to inform our decisions. over the services they receive and increase the transparency of the cost to them (for • Customers will have greater control over the services they receive and increased example, linking with the smart metering programme in the energy sector); transparency of the costs of them through the use of smart technologies (for example, • We will use innovative engagement tools and communities to give our customers building on the smart metering programme in the energy sector); opportunities to inform day-to-day and long-term business planning; • Customers will have a strong voice in day-to-day and long-term business planning by using • We will ensure that customers will automatically be placed on the lowest tariff for innovative co-creation tools and communities to inform decisions, whilst taking full their personal circumstance, helping to deliver affordability for those struggling to advantage of open data and big data analytics; and pay their water bill. This will require appropriate sharing between our customer data • A strong customer-centric culture at Welsh Water. and government data; and • We will use available data to segment our customer services and offerings in order to provide the most relevant and personalised service. For example, separately recognising vulnerable, disadvantaged, business customers, and those more or less technologically proficient.

Total investment £180m Total cost £147m Welsh Water 2050 83

3. Strategic Responses 3.9 Leading edge customer service Current case study: “Have your say” customer consultation, summer 2016

Need interest in participating in further research. In general, there was a good spread of As a not-for-profit company without allocation of the £30m across the six options, shareholders, all Welsh Water’s financial with strong support for community, education surpluses are reinvested in the business for and recreation projects and additional help the benefit of customers. A key part of the for those who struggle to pay. 49% of company’s customer-led success is to consultees did not want any reductions to increase the use of customer insight into its their bills but would prefer to support the day-to-day decision making and business other five options, including additional planning, including customers having a say in investments to improve the service, resilience how any surpluses are used in future. The and efficiency of the business, to help keep high profile customer consultation and down bills in the long term. engagement campaign in 2016 was also intended to raise awareness of the role of the company and to build customer trust.

Solution description

The “Have your say” consultation took the Figure 63 : ‘Have Your Say’ website snapshot. © Welsh Water form of an online survey where customers were asked to allocate £30m between six options.

The consultation was supported by an advertising campaign across TV, radio and digital channels which encouraged customers to go to the website to ‘have their say’. In addition to the advertising campaign, engagement events were held across the length and breadth of our operating area, including the Royal Welsh Show, Eisteddfod, pop-up events and ‘customer of the future’ college events.

The online consultation was completed by over 12,000 people from across the operating area. Over 2,000 customers showed an Welsh Water 2050 84 3. Strategic Responses 3.10 Smart water business

With the opportunity to capitalise on technological advances, we will improve the service performance and Customer resilience of our assets through remote sensing, data analysis and automation; solving problems before they promises happen. Future trends

Customer impact highly vulnerable to disruption (Williams, appropriate datasets for use by third • Develop research projects on the The Institute of Customer Service notes in its 2014). parties, and developing an internal data application of robotics, drones and 2016 Customer of the Future Report that Strategic response platform to share data on everything from artificial intelligence to our business; increased use of sensors will enable customer sentiment to asset conditions • Research into the role of 3D and 4D Welsh Water’s Smart Hub aims to optimise seamlessly across the business; and organisations to extract greater value from asset performance through local automation printing; physical assets, improve individuals’ quality and remote intervention, with on-site • Improved network equipment for control • Pilot the role of innovative engagement of life and “allow for better, more immediate intervention only required in exceptional and automation, for example, automatic techniques, such as ‘gamification’, in and even proactive customer service”. Digital circumstances. The capability to collect and combines sewer overflows. customer engagement and staff training; technology can provide an opportunity to co- analyse large volumes of data will help Research and innovation create solutions with customers. • Continually improving cyber security to currently unforeseen events become more We will undertake the following research and prevent cyber attacks on our assets and Responding to future trends predictable. We will use machine learning, innovation activities to support the strategic data; and The provision of a safe and reliable water and artificial intelligence and other advanced response: technologies to further enhance decision- • The development of a dynamic wastewater service is essential for our • Continue working with the International procurement platform to enable a more customers, and it is expected that they will be making within our own networks and assets, and across the water cycle, working with Smart Water Networks (SWAN) research responsive and resilient supply chain. less tolerant of outages by all utilities in the and best practice group; future. Climate change may increase the stakeholders and communities. Interventions Co-operative approach will include: frequency and severity outages. • Drive innovative software developments in We will work with universities, water • Improved data collection and telemetry, control and operations companies and suppliers to develop The growth of the digital economy will provide management; opportunities to improve system efficiency communication, for example, working with innovative customer-orientated solutions, and customer service, whilst reducing customers and stakeholders for • Leverage more data sets (Big Data) to such as advanced data analytics and operational costs through artificial collaborative data collection, including the gain insights into operations and customer introduce technology, such as mobile intelligence, automation and increased gathering of data on the quality of water service, resulting in improved reliability applications, that allow customers to help availability of data. our customers experience at tap, and the and performance; with the early identification of problems at nature of customers’ discharges; • Use advanced analytics to improve source. We will work with customers to Training will be needed to develop staff to engage them in data collection, and use work alongside automated systems. • Improved sensing, data collection, decision making and move customer communication and analytics across our service and operations into predictive technology as a tool to enable co-creation. However, changing demographics will We will also engage other key stakeholders, represent opportunities for new skills in a own networks and assets, for example, mode; dynamic production planning; from other utilities to regulators, through the changing workforce. • Use Welsh Water Technical Academy to whole water cycle, sharing data appropriately Moreover, the update connected digital • Improved co-collection of data with ensure sufficient and well-trained to achieve shared outcomes. customers and stakeholders; technicians are available to operate the equipment increases our susceptibility to We will develop a new platform to engage cyber attacks – and increasingly • Improved data management, data sharing increasingly sophisticated control processes of the future; with our supply chain in a new and adaptive interconnected systems make institutions and display, for example, by opening up way. Welsh Water 2050 85 3. Strategic Responses 3.10 Smart water business

Customer promises Customer promises Well-being goals Future trends Clean, safe water for everyone A resilient Wales Improved performance of the network Utilising big data sets and analytics and reduced rates of failure will ensure will help Welsh Water to understand Welsh Water can continue to provide and control its impact on the clean, safe water into the future. environment, creating healthy and Safeguard our environment for resilient ecosystems. future generations A prosperous Wales Leveraging more data sets and analytics will help Welsh Water to Smart information sharing will enable water to be used more control its impact on the environment efficiently, contributing to an and safeguard it for future generations. innovative, productive and low carbon society in Wales. Put things right if things go wrong Advanced control systems and analytics will ensure Welsh Water is able to respond to change in a timely and effective manner, with minimum impact on service.

Personal service that’s right for you Use of advanced datasets will allow Welsh Water to respond to customer desire to have a personalised service.

Fair bills for everyone Reduced costs through better analysis of asset performance and reduced maintenance will help to keep costs and bills low. Create a better future for all our communities The open availability of data sources will help us to work better with local communities to co-create a better future for themselves.

Figure 64 : Augmented reality. We will take advantage of new technology where it helps to meet our vision for 2050. Welsh Water 2050 86

3. Strategic Responses 3.10 Smart water business

We believe that we will need to take full advantage of emerging technologies in order to be able to meet our customers’ growing expectations for the quality, reliability and efficiency of their service. Therefore, we only have a comprehensive scenario.

Comprehensive scenario

Customer outcomes Actions • Improved customer service through predictive capability avoiding asset service failures that • We will improve how we manage our data, improving data collection, impact on customer service; communication systems, and data analytics, across our own networks and assets; • Reduced flooding and water service outages through better remote monitoring of our • We will work with customers and stakeholders to co-collect data on customer water services and assets, along with utilisation of big datasets for more effective intervention; supply and discharges, including load profiles and water quality at tap, using smart metering and other data collection devices; • Better analysis of asset performance through the Smart Hub to help reduce costs; • We will implement cyber security to prevent attacks on our assets and data; • Reduce the reactive field maintenance required, through better problem analysis and • We will improve our data management, data sharing and display, including sharing information to the field teams, reducing costs through avoiding failure; datasets across the business and with third parties if appropriate; • Better resilience to cyber attacks through improved cyber security; • We will provide improved network equipment for control and automation, for • A highly automated network to increase efficiency and reduce the likelihood of failure; example, automatic combined sewer overflows; • Open data availability allows for the co-creation of solutions with communities; • We will improve sensing and automation and control equipment in our assets to • Better relationships with customers, suppliers and stakeholders; and enable automation of our systems; • Enabling dynamic consenting, which will result in efficiencies and no harm to the natural • We will encourage the co-collection of data with customers and stakeholders; and environment. • We will develop a dynamic procurement platform.

Total investment £250m Total cost £496m Welsh Water 2050 87

3. Strategic Responses 3.10 Smart water business Current case study: flood warnings in Copenhagen

Issues and extent of the predicted flooding, and can decide whether utilities, emergency response Extreme rainfall events in 2010 and 2011 units, or the wider public should be alerted. caused significant economic, social and environmental damage to the city of The predictive nature of the tool allows Copenhagen. In particular, in July 2011, authorities and utilities to temporarily 80,000 homes were flooded and the damage increase their treatment capacity to meet the was valued at approximately €1bn. predicted demand, or implement relevant public safety measures if necessary whilst Future weather projections for Copenhagen avoiding costly and disruptive false alarms. point to an increase in extreme rainfall events in summer, an increase in precipitation in Result winter, more days of high wind, and rising The project has been very successful at sea levels. While experts generally agree on ensuring the existing sewerage network is the extent to which sea levels are expected to used more efficiently, avoiding the need for rise, it is difficult to project where and when costly upgrades. It was led to a reduction in extreme rainfall events will occur. energy used for treatment, and a significant Action taken improvement in the water environment. Figure 65 : Swimming in the harbour area. Creative Commons License (CC-BY-2.0). By In order to help protect people and property Thomas Rousing. against the risks of intense rainfall, a flood warning tool, SURFF (Surface Flood 90% Forecast) was developed. SURFF uses: Reduction in number of wastewater overflows • Local weather prognosis data; between 2013 and 2014 • Measurements of seawater level; and • A model of the city (both surface terrain and the below-ground pipe system) 10-15% To predict resulting water flows and flood Less energy used for wastewater treatment stages, along with sewerage pipe flows, for the next 6 hours. If the rainfall event is predicted to create 10cm or more of standing water over a significant area, a warning is issued to the relevant person on duty by ⅓ SMS. They can then use a web-based viewer to gain a better understanding of the location Less pollution in the industrial port Figure 66 : Flooding in 2011, Copenhagen. Creative Commons License (CC-BY-2.0). By Lisa Risager. Welsh Water 2050 88

3. Strategic Responses 3.10 Smart water business Current case study: AMP6 coastal studies programme

Issue Outcomes We identified the need to gain a full The study identified gaps in our existing quantitative understanding of the impact of datasets, validated our existing sewerage our assets on bathing and shellfish waters network models and led to the creation of one around our coastline. It was recognised that regional and five local coastal models, more complete and useful datasets would be spanning 2,700km of coastline. essential to provide a solid evidence base for The marine models developed will be used future plans, and mitigate expensive future for an asset by asset cost benefit analysis to investments in our assets. It could also bring assess whether we should make any waste value by promoting high quality bathing water investments at these coastal sites. This waters, and meeting new guidelines shellfish will help us to maintain affordable customer standards, providing value to the Welsh bills and support resilient sewerage designs economy. for the future by ensuring we make the most Actions taken effective and efficient interventions, whilst advising third parties of interventions that The study consisted of a two year they can make in order to promote programme reviewing in detail the water environmental improvements. quality risks at 49 bathing and shellfish Figure 67 : An example of water quality impact mapping in Swansea Bay, showing the waters around Wales. The models allow us to understand and impact of our sewer outfalls. © Welsh Water apportion the causes of impacts, including This investigation included marine surveys sources that are not our responsibility, to help and the processing of samples over 10 years, us contribute our fair share towards a large scale review of our asset telemetry protecting the environment and public health. and the development and use of water quality models to identify how our assets impact on The new modelling resources are available to such designated waters. regulators, developers and academia – £8 million 2,700 km maximising the benefit of our investment to It was the largest single innovation project we Total cost of the study Of coastline included in the new models the Welsh and wider UK economy. have ever undertaken in Wales, and included the identification of multiple pollution sources The study has created a robust water quality (including our sources, private sources and prediction and forecasting tool, which allows 27,000 sources of diffuse pollution) and a us to warn bathers of short term pollution quantification of their impact on receiving events. Hours of oceanographic survey data water bodies. processed Welsh Water 2050 89 3. Strategic Responses 3.11 Using nature to reduce flood risk and pollution

RainScaping our communities: confronted with urban creep due to demographic change, and increase intensity of Customer rainfall due to climate change, we will reduce the risk of sewer flooding and pollution through sustainable urban promises drainage systems. Future trends

Customer impact network. Increasing environmental pollution approaches; Co-operative approach Sewer flooding is considered the worst through emerging contaminants poses risks • Develop our understanding of the water We will work in partnership with Local service failure customers can experience, to the natural environment. quality benefits of sustainable urban Authorities, landowners and local and is noted as a highly emotive issue Strategic response drainage systems; and communities to co-create sustainable urban amongst our customers. They consider us This strategic response includes: • Academic research into the effects of drainage systems. This will include design, responsible for preventing such events. climate change on the risk of flooding. implementation and maintenance to ensure (Welsh Water, 2016). • Implementing sustainable drainage the schemes operate sustainably and systems across our region, co-creating • Examining incentives for customers to Responding to future trends effectively, and bring the widest possible local solutions with communities; drive behavioural change, such as waste benefits for the local community. We will Climate change is expected to cause an • Mitigating flood risks for all properties at a water metering to reduce discharge encourage local communities to adopt increase in winter rainfall and increase in high risk of internal flooding and resolve volumes; sustainable urban drainage systems, and we intensity of summer storms. This will cause new ‘high-risk’ flooding issues as they • Formulation and development of a will work closely with the Welsh Government increases in the scale and frequency of arise; strategic capacity framework for drainage; to ensure legal frameworks are in place for sewer flooding. Urban creep, caused by adoption. We will also work with customers to • Communicating and engaging with • Research to understand and apply climate population growth, and an expansion in the find the best interventions to protect our customers to avoid introducing change to sewage and urban drainage impermeable area within our towns and cities sewerage network against inappropriate inappropriate solids into the sewerage design with consultants HR Wallingford; is steadily increasing the amount of rainfall solids (such as wet wipes). which is collected into our combined (foul network; and, • Research to understand the nature and sewage and surface water) sewage systems. • Undertaking a study to explore the costs, fate of pollutants entering our sewage This increases the risk of sewer flooding and risks and benefits of the adoption of systems and how best to control such pollution due to hydraulic overload and surface water and highway drainage by substances; blockages and increases the pressure on our Welsh Water, something that is not • Research to understand how long our weakened ageing infrastructure. In addition, currently our responsibility. drainage assets will last and how best to with increased pressure on councils to Research and innovation maintain and rehabilitate them; reduce their budgets, the spending on maintenance of surface water sewers and The following research ad innovation will • Contribute to the Welsh Government’s highway drains may be reduced, further support this strategic response: consultation on Sustainable Urban increasing the risks of sewer flooding. In • Innovative methods to educate customers Drainage; and addition, the incidence of sewer flooding to avoid introducing inappropriate solids • Continue to contribute to Water UK’s 21st caused by internal blockages remains high. into the network; Century Drainage Programme. The cost of energy may increase making it • Work with global leaders in surface water more efficient to reduce the amount of management; rainwater being pumped around our sewage • Develop novel surface water management Welsh Water 2050 90 3. Strategic Responses 3.11 Using nature to reduce flood risk and pollution

Customer promises Customer promises Well-being goals Future Safeguard our environment for trends future generations A prosperous Wales Long term sustainable drainage and The adoption of all surface water researching the fate of pollutants will sewers and highway drains could help to support environmental systems allow Welsh Water to manage flows in Wales. more efficiently and effectively, and contribute to a more innovative and productive society. Putting things right if they go wrong A resilient Wales Reducing surface water and sewage Sustainable drainage will help to flooding will protect communities and reduce pollution and flooding in the reduce the need for reactive face of climate change and urban interventions. The adoption of all creep. surface water sewers and highway drains could allow for a more co- A healthier Wales ordinated approach to asset Improved water quality and a management, and a more effective greener urban environment will response when things go wrong. enable healthier livelihoods and communities. Create a better future for all our communities A more equal Wales Improved water quality, effective Many communities most at risk of control of the sewage system, and a flooding are also amongst Wales’ greener urban environment will create poorest, and thus taking ownership a healthier and better future for of key assets and reducing flood communities and encourage risks will help to create a society biodiversity. where everyone can fulfil their potential. A Wales of cohesive communities Improve the built environment through sustainable drainage reducing the incidence of sewerage flooding will help to create more attractive and viable communities.

A globally responsible Wales The enhancement of the natural environment will contribute to the well-being of ecosystems. Figure 68 : Street planters are a sustainable urban drainage system. Sustainable urban drainage systems can dramatically improve the well-being of our communities. © Arup Welsh Water 2050 91

3. Strategic Responses 3.11 Using nature to reduce flood risk and pollution

We believe that the RainScape approach will be crucial to protect our communities and the environment from the growing risks of flooding and pollution; the issue is how widely to implement this approach, whether to implement RainScape only in the major towns or cities, or across all the communities we serve. Progressive scenario

Customer outcomes Actions By delivering sustainable drainage systems in the major conurbations we will virtually eliminate flooding in all but extreme events for our high risk customers. The customer • Deliver sustainable drainage systems in cities and major conurbations (Swansea, outcomes will include: Cardiff, Newport, Wrexham, Chester) facing the highest risk of sewer flooding and pollution; and • Increasing the resilience of our assets and customers to future risks including climate change; • Communicate and engage with customers to avoid introducing inappropriate solids into the sewerage network (for example, ‘Stop The Block’ campaign). • Mitigating flood risks for individual properties experiencing a high risk of internal flooding (flooding during a 1 in 10 year event) currently and in the future; • Greening the urban environment (as per Welsh Government Water Strategy) and helping to meet the requirements of the Well-being and Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015; and • Providing wider benefits to our customers, such as biodiversity and greener communities.

Investment required £700m Total cost £577m

Comprehensive scenario

Customer outcomes Actions + Deliver customer outcomes to 90% of customers. As per the progressive scenario with the addition of: + Mitigating local risk of external flooding, in particular for areas where it has an impact on communications, transport and access to properties. + Deliver sustainable urban drainage systems to all urban communities at risk (broadly those with a population of 2,000 people or more) in order to virtually eliminate urban flooding and pollution.

Additional investment £1.9bn Additional total cost £1.5bn

Total investment £2.6bn Total cost £2.1bn Welsh Water 2050 92

3. Strategic Responses 3.11 Using nature to reduce flood risk and pollution Current case study: RainScape Llanelli

Llanelli was particularly prioritised due to the station in Llanelli town centre, liaised with impact of flooding on customers and more than 3,500 customers, issued in excess preventing economic development. The total of 11,500 letters, hosted public exhibitions costs of the RainScape in Llanelli is £55 and surgeries and answered all questions million. openly and honestly. Issue Result Large volumes of rainwater are entering the To date, Welsh Water have removed sewers during periods of heavy rainfall. This 30,000m3 of surface water from the sewer, has led to some sewer flooding in residential reducing spills of storm sewage into the sea, areas, frequent spills of storm sewage into freeing capacity for new development, and the sea, and restrictions to economic addressing the risk of flooding at 6 Llanelli development. We cannot resolve this properties. problem solely using traditional methods such as building additional storage tanks, as they Next Steps would be difficult to operate and would not Welsh Water will continue the Loughor tackle the fundamental problem of too much RainScape programme to reduce network rainwater getting into the sewers during flows and spills, including: Figure 69 : A rain garden at Queen Mary’s Walk, Llanelli. © Arup storms. • Further work with communities, including the Station Road tunnel and Action taken implementation of RainScape at Emma A variety of RainScape solutions have been Street and Asda (Phase 2); installed in Llanelli to collect and store • Increase pass forward flows at rainwater. These include: Northumberland Sewage Pumping Station Queen Mary’s Walk – construction of a (SPS) to achieve 10 spills per year; and swale on a playing field; • Peak flow equivalent secondary treatment Stebonheath School - the transformed at Llanelli and Gowerton Wastewater playground includes a pond, a swale, Treatment Works. planters, permeable paving, water butts and an outdoor educational area; and Glevering Street / Swansea Road - installation of new drainage kerbs, grass channels and planters. In addition, the Welsh Water communications team have opened a RainScape information

Figure 70 : A bioswale at Queen Mary’s Walk, Llanelli. © Arup Welsh Water 2050 93

3. Strategic Responses 3.11 Using nature to reduce flood risk and pollution Future case study: Highways drainage - assessing the impact of adoption

We are currently undertaking research to to when problems arise. Whilst this issue of Expected Result input into the Welsh Government Water urban flooding is outside our responsibility, It is too early to predict the outputs of the Strategy consultation on sewage and we want to play our part in promoting internal project and the impact of any transfer drainage ownership. solutions that provide the best service for our of assets on customers or Welsh Water. customers in the most efficient way. Issue However, the project is expected to provide Actions Drainage systems have developed over time evidence to the Welsh Government that it and this has led to a range of individuals and Five task and finish groups have been set up can use to inform future policy decisions or organisations having ownership and to review the practical challenges that would further studies into various transfer options. responsibility for surface water and highway be faced through any addition to our roles Next Steps and responsibilities as a sewage undertaker: drains. This often means that we have no We are not proposing that Welsh Water control over the root cause of problems, such • Work Area 1 – Technical should take overall ownership of sewage and as sewer flooding caused by surface water • Work Area 2 – Resource, Cost and drainage, as this is outside of our current surcharge. Service legislative duties. We propose to explore the In built-up areas, local authorities and the • Work Area 3 – Risk scope of any change through the following sewage undertaker each have certain activities: • Work Area 4 – Legal responsibilities. In rural areas, drainage is • Establish a framework to identify any • Work Area 5 – Welsh Government often the responsibility of Natural Resources evidence, data or regulatory gaps and Proposal Wales. consider how these might be addressed; The first two work areas consider the Highways drainage is the responsibility of • Assess the costs, benefits and risks of practicalities and impact of any transfer of highways authorities. The relationship adoption; between highways drains and the public privately owned drainage assets to Welsh • Assess requirements for highway sewage network is complex, with some Water. The second two work areas consider drainage and private un-adopted surface highways drains carrying surface water from the risk and legal implications for the transfer water sewer maintenance; public systems and some highways drainage of privately owned drainage assets to Welsh discharging into public sewers. Water. Work Area 5 co-ordinates the • Target rehabilitation of any adopted opinions of the full project group into a series assets in poor condition; and An estimated 7% of properties in Wales of recommendations which will be made to depend on independent privately owned and • Assess requirements for operation of the Welsh Government in support of their operated systems such as septic tanks, cess additional urban drainage. recent consultation. pools and package treatment plants. Understanding the role each plays in drainage is vital for development of sustainable integrated drainage. For our customers it can prove confusing and create difficulties in understanding who to go Figure 71 : Drainage © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 94

3. Strategic Responses 3.12. Cleaner rivers and beaches

With increasing pressure on the natural environment from increased population, changing land use, climate change Customer and new sources of pollution, we will improve our wastewater assets to help achieve ‘good’ environmental status promises for our rivers, lakes and coastal waters. Future trends

Customer impact achieve. significant investment to reduce the impact of • Understand how best to address emerging Our customers are disappointed by poor river Although the nature of the regulatory operations on the environment, in such contaminants, including the fate of water quality statistics, and want a greater environment after Brexit is uncertain, there instances, for example to reduce nutrient antibiotics, other pharmaceuticals, emphasis to be placed on improving it. They could be an opportunity to take advantage of levels entering waterbodies from our assets. microplastics and microbeads in the waste also place a high value on coastal bathing new national regulation that improves Research and innovation water treatment process, and their impact on the environment. water quality, and note the importance of environmental outcomes and social efficiency, Welsh Water will explore the following coastal waters for supporting a high quality of for example, through alignment of consenting research topics to support this initiative: Co-operative approach life and the tourism industry (Accent, 2013). with the Water Framework Directive, and We will work with partners such as Natural Our customers continue to place a greater through seasonal permitting. • Work with Natural Resources Wales on alternative catchment wide permitting Resources Wales on both delivery and value on the protection of the environment and There are opportunities for Welsh Water to research. Achieving good ecological status recognise the importance of everyone playing approaches (including seasonal and load- respond to the desire of the Welsh people to based consenting); involves a range of partners, and we will their part to protect it. do more outdoor recreation. participate in catchment working groups to Responding to future trends • Develop flow and load monitors to deliver, with other land users, improved Strategic response understand the impact of spills; The European Water Framework Directive outcomes in a holistic and cost efficient The Water Framework Directive places legal • Understand and model our environmental manner. We will also share data, such as requires all waterbodies to achieve ‘Good’ obligations on Welsh Water through new and environmental status. Waterbodies can be footprint by undertaking further coastal modelling outputs, to assist in changed permits for abstractions and environmental monitoring; investigations. impacted by multiple activities including discharges. Welsh Water will investigate the agriculture, urban run-off, wastewater impact of our operations on waterbodies, • Understand the effects of climate change discharges (continuous and intermittent), where we are the confirmed, probable (or on river flows and ecology to anticipate abstraction, physical modifications (dams, suspected) cause of water quality failure. future environmental needs in 30 years bridges, weirs) and industry (such as mines). time; and Natural Resources Wales and the Increased winter rainfall, increased agricultural Environment Agency may impose new permits run-off and increased run-off due to on us to meet the Water Framework Directive. urbanisation are likely to have a detrimental We will work with Natural Resources Wales, impact on the ecological status of waterbodies. the Environment Agency and other Reduced summer rainfall will lead to more stakeholders to understand the impact of our periods of low flows in rivers, again impacting operations and those of others on waterbodies on the ecological status of waterbodies. where we are the confirmed, probable (or The cost of resources required to treat suspected) cause of water quality failure. We wastewater may increase in the future. There aim to develop solutions that are appropriate is also potential for tightening standards in the for the catchment to achieve ‘good’ future which could be difficult and expensive to environmental status. There is likely to be

Figure 72 : Reasons for not achieving ‘good status’ © Natural Resources Wales Welsh Water 2050 95

3. Strategic Responses 3.12 Cleaner rivers and beaches

Customer promises Well-being goals Safeguard our environment for future generations A resilient Wales Welsh Water will use a catchment-wide A catchment-wide approach to approach to water management to water management will help to reduce the impact of our operations on maintain a resilient, biodiverse, the environment and protect the natural environment into the future. environment into the future. A prosperous Wales Fair bills for everyone Improving our water environment Working together with stakeholders will contribute to an innovative and across catchments and harnessing new productive society, where natural technological solutions will keep down resources are used efficiently and the costs of environmental proportionately, and will promote improvements into the future. leisure, tourism and the well-being of our communities. Create a better future for all our communities Reduced sewage discharges, through A globally responsible Wales projects such as RainScape, will The enhancement of the natural improve the natural environment for environment will contribute to the people, and help communities create a well-being of ecosystems. better future for themselves.

Figure 73 : Three Cliffs Bay, The Gower. Maintaining high quality rivers and beaches can help to promote tourism, as well as support the wellbeing of the people of Wales. By William Pearce, Creative Commons License (CC-BY-2.0). Welsh Water 2050 96

3. Strategic Responses 3.12. Cleaner rivers and beaches Investing towards ‘Good’ status for rivers: Cumulative capital investment (Capex) required to achieve ‘good’ status, and relative attribution of cause of failure to the water industry

Capital Investments (£m)

Figure 74 : Capital investments required to achieve ‘good’ status Welsh Water 2050 97

3. Strategic Responses 3.12 Cleaner rivers and beaches

We believe that we have an important part to play in achieving cleaner rivers and beaches; the issue is whether to just target our investment where we have a leading role to play in improving the natural environment, or also where we have only a small contribution to make to the overall solution. Progressive scenario

Customer outcomes Actions • We will aim to achieve ‘good’ status amongst all the rivers for which we are the confirmed • We will work with Natural Resources Wales, the Environment Agency and other and probable cause of water quality failure, constituting approximately 1,000 km of rivers stakeholders to understand the impact of our operations and those of others on in Wales. waterbodies for 1,000 km of rivers in Wales, where we are the confirmed or probable cause of water quality failures. We will develop solutions that are • We will reflect the desires of our customers, who value the environment, appropriate for the catchment to achieve ‘Good’ environmental status. • We will enhance our approach to wider catchment management and put in place resilient solutions for the future; • We will use sound science and investigations to target our investment, and help to identify partnering opportunities with contributing sectors who can also play their part; and • This approach will deliver economic benefits, particularly for the tourism industry.

Investment required £600m Net cost £807m

Comprehensive scenario

Customer outcomes Actions As per the progressive scenario with the addition of: As per the progressive scenario with the addition of: + Achieve ‘good’ status amongst all the rivers for which we are also the suspected cause of + We will work with Natural Resources Wales, the Environment Agency and other water quality failure, constituting approximately 500 km of rivers in Wales. stakeholders to understand the impact of our operations and those of others on an additional 500 km of rivers in Wales, where we are the suspected cause of water quality failures. We will develop solutions that are appropriate for the catchment to achieve ‘Good’ environmental status.

Additional investment £600m Additional net cost £694m

Total investment £1.2bn Total net cost £1.5bn Welsh Water 2050 98

3. Strategic Responses 3.12 Cleaner rivers and beaches Current case study: Swansea Bay bathing water

Issue Swansea Bay Wastewater Treatment Works. The Swansea Bay bathing water had Next Steps experienced varied compliance with the original Bathing Water Directive (cBWD) and We will complete of RainScape schemes to had been identified by Environment Agency achieve 3 spills design solutions at the Wales, now Natural Resources Wales, as following combined sewer overflows: Dunns being at risk of not meeting ‘sufficient’ class Lane; Sketty Green and Derwen Fawr. under the revised Bathing Water Directive . (rBWD). Investigations identified investment The total cost of the scheme is £5.2 million. as being required for improvement of the direct discharges and larger local indirect discharges to enable ‘sufficient’ class to be achieved. Action taken • We have undertaken investigations to identify impact of our assets on Swansea Bathing Water; and • We implemented of sustainable drainage (RainScape) approach over AMP5 and AMP6 to meet Natural Resources Wales required spill frequencies at identified assets.

Result • Welsh Water is playing its part in helping the bathing water reliably meet its statutory water quality standard under the rBWD. Bathing water status has improved from ‘Poor’ and is currently classed as ‘Good’; and • The improvements will reduce the overall volumes of water entering our network during storms, reducing pumping at Langdon Road pumping station and Figure 75 : Swansea Bay. By Palickap - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, Welsh Water 2050 99

3. Strategic Responses 3.12 Cleaner rivers and beaches Future case study: Wye Catchment phosphorus removal investigations

Phosphate levels in some locations within the Expected result Wye catchment are above current target The expected results are: levels. Phosphate loads to the catchment • Good status achieved for waterbodies in need to be reduced by Welsh Water and the Wye and Lugg river catchments; other parties. By undertaking investigations in AMP6, investment in AMP7 will be based on • Allowance for forecast population growth sound evidence. in catchments; and • Improved cost effectiveness by taking a Issue catchment wide approach. The River Wye and River Lugg are areas of special importance for nature conservation, Next steps with both rivers being designated as Sites of The next steps are: Specific Scientific Interest (SSSIs). The lower • Participation at Wye Nutrient stretches of the River Lugg, along with the Management Plan Board and Technical River Wye, are also a part of the River Wye Advisory Group; Special Area of Conservation (SAC) designated under the Habitats Directive. The • Updating of Source Apportionment SAC includes reaches where the levels of Geographical Information Systems phosphate exceed the target level currently (SAGIS) modelling for source set by Natural England, meaning that apportionment in partnership with waterbodies are not at ‘Good’ status. Environment Agency; and • Scheme development for onsite and Actions to be taken offsite, catchment solutions to achieve We will undertake: phosphorus removal. • Source apportionment investigation to identify which of our activities and those of other land users are impacting and where; • Stakeholder and partnership working, supporting the Nutrient Management Plan; and • Identification of solutions including phosphorus removal at WWTWs and, catchment based solutions.

Figure 76 : The River Wye © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 100

3. Strategic Responses 3.13 Protecting our critical waste water assets

Faced with an increased risk of disruption, for example from climate change, and reduced customer acceptability Customer of pollution events, we will improve the resilience of out critical wastewater assets, which have high environmental promises and customer impacts of failure. Future trends

Customer impact Strategic response which can recover or absorb shocks such Resilient wastewater assets are seen as a We have assessed the resilience of critical as load or flow peaks; key driver to avoid interruption to wastewater assets to: security, flooding, coastal erosion, • Research the emerging flood risk in services and protecting the environment. catastrophic failure, contamination, loss of Wales, using a wider historical data Customers interpreted this to cover power and cyber threat and have identified record; interventions, such as building walls around the following resilience measures: • Assess emerging treatment processes in sites to stop them flooding thereby • Complete security upgrades; terms of their energy and carbon preventing damage to equipment. They were • Install cyber security measures; intensity, and also treatment for emerging also adamant that wastewater from flooding contaminants such as microbeads or should not in any way affect clean water • Install flood resilience; pharmaceuticals; and supplies (Welsh Water, 2016). • Improve power resilience; • Understand small scale treatment Responding to future trends • Upgrade control systems; processes that may efficiently serve Severe weather events are likely to get more smaller communities. • Improve treatment flexibility; frequent and more difficult to predict, as a Co-operative approach result of climate change. • Make improvements to maintain access; We will work with the supply chain to develop • Develop, test and refine business Welsh Water service robustness is resilient solutions for assets. We will also continuity plans for key assets; and compromised by both critical assets, which work with community sewage support groups may have limited resilience to challenges • Provide coastal erosion prevention to most effectively reduce the impact of including flooding, coastal erosion and loss of (specifically measures at Cardiff sewage flooding, and with other national power and ageing assets that are reaching wastewater treatment works). infrastructure providers to help improve co- the limit of their service life or beyond. These ordination and resilience. assets could also be compromised by We have also recognised the need to security and cyber threats particularly as develop best practice resilience design and increased automation and connectedness operation standards. means that individual asset resilience is no Research and innovation longer sufficient. Welsh Water will explore the following The failure of these assets could lead to research topics to support this strategic significant customer service and response: environmental impacts. • Undertake research into flood resilience and climate change; • Research sewage treatment processes,

Figure 77 : Cardiff wastewater treatment works © Welsh Water. Welsh Water 2050 101 3. Strategic Responses 3.13 Protecting our critical waste water assets

Customer promises Customer promises Well-being goals Future Safeguard our environment for trends future generations A prosperous Wales Reducing the impact of waste water on Reduced outages and resilience to clean water sources will help to protect shocks and stresses will contribute these resources for future generations. to productive communities across Wales. Putting things right if they go wrong Improved resilience of waste water A resilient Wales assets will allow Welsh Water to better A better capacity to adapt to change respond to unforeseen events. will support a resilient Wales.

Create a better future for all our communities Increased resilience to shocks and stresses for assets will enable Welsh Water to continue providing a high quality service to customers into the future.

Figure 78 : Pwll Pumping Station experiencing flooding in 2016. © Welsh Water. Welsh Water 2050 102

3. Strategic Responses 3.13 Protecting our critical waste water assets

In this case, only a comprehensive response is included, which ensures a high degree of resilience for all those assets for which the consequence of failure is so great that it cannot be mitigated by an operational response, such as tankering away effluent from site. It is unnecessary to achieve the same level of protection at all our other assets as their failure can continue to be mitigated through operational means. Comprehensive scenario

Customer outcomes Actions By having resilient waste water service assets protected against security incidents, flooding, • This is a risk based approach focusing on dealing with the most strategic and critical coastal erosion, catastrophic failure, treatment flexibility, control systems, loss of power, assets where there is a high consequence of failure which cannot be met by access restrictions and cyber threats, we will; operational mitigation; • Reduce the risk of serious pollution events (category 1 and 2). This will be a reduction from • We will develop resilient design and operation standards for wastewater assets; the current levels of two pollution incidents a year, on average; • The major assets we aim to focus on for this strategic response are 26 (of the 835) • Reduce the risk of serious flooding incidents (affecting multiple properties). This will be a waste water treatment works and 10 (of the 2237) sewage pumping stations; reduction from the current level of 1 serious flooding incident a year; • For each of our major assets, we plan to undertake the following: • Aim to eliminate flood damage to our assets, ensuring effective service provision.; • Complete security upgrades; • Aim to maintain our reputation as a credible and effective provider of an essential service • Install flood resilience; by reduced customer outages, pollution and flooding events; and • Improve power resilience; • Help to meet increasing customer expectations that our service provision can withstand or • Upgrade control systems; recover quickly from ‘shocks’ or ‘stresses’. • Improve treatment flexibility; • Make improvements to maintain access; • Develop, test and refine business continuity plans; and • Provide coastal erosion risk reduction measures (specifically at Cardiff waste water treatment works).

Total investment £200m Total cost £397m Welsh Water 2050 103

3. Strategic Responses 3.13 Protecting our critical waste water assets Current case study and future project: Newport Nash waste water treatment works

Current case study: Newport Nash waste Future project: Improving power water treatment inlet works resilience at waste water treatment works Improvements have been made at the waste Power is critical to ensure that there is water treatment works to improve resilience sufficient supply to keep our waste water of the current asset configuration and ensure treatment works running in an emergency that properties in the network are not flooded situation. due to problems at the works. Issue Issue Through our resilience risk assessment we Newport Nash serves a catchment of around have identified a number of waste water 160,000 properties. It was identified that treatment works that do not have a resilient there was no bypass at the inlet works so any power supply. For example, some are reliant failure of the equipment could result in the on a single electricity sub-station or do not sewage backing up to houses. The inlet is have standby generation capability that is often a pinch point at a treatment works, as sufficient to operate the site. There are risks there is a significant amount of rubbish in the that the power supply could fail leading to the sewers, which has to be screened at this waste water treatment works stopping. In this early stage. It is very easy for some of this to circumstance there is potential for a cause a blockage and, without a bypass, the significant environmental pollution event or effect would be to slow the flow of sewage sewage backing up in the network and coming into the works, which could flood up flooding customer properties. 22 of our most to 60 properties. critical works have identified problems with limited resilience. Action taken Actions to be taken A bypass has been constructed at the inlet works to ensure that flow can be diverted in Options for improving the works will be the event of a blockage. considered to find the most cost beneficial solution. They are likely to include laying Result additional power supplies to site, installing This has resulted in reduced risk of additional standby generation, installing plug- environmental damage and property flooding. in-points where mobile generation capability is maintained nearby or innovative approaches using new battery technology or fuel cell capability. Expected Result Welsh Water will have confidence that works can continue to operate in an emergency situation, reducing the risk of environmental Figure 79: Newport Nash wastewater treatment works. © Welsh Water damage or property flooding. Welsh Water 2050 104 3. Strategic Responses 3.14 Playing our part in combatting climate change

Faced with a changing climate and increased energy costs, we will aim to become an energy neutral business, Customer whilst maximising the opportunities to reuse treated water and other potentially valuable natural materials, promises

contributing to the circular economy. Future trends The circular economy is restorative 2050 relative to 1990 levels (Committee on Strategic response “ and regenerative by design. Climate Change) and it is possible that new The business proposes to become energy Relying on system-wide innovation, regulation will require specific generation and neutral through self-generation, energy carbon emissions reduction figures. efficiency and a transition towards a circular it aims to redefine products and Moreover, there is increasing recognition of services to design waste out, while economy approach. Some of the generation how organisations can contribute to a circular will still require the export (and subsequent minimising negative impacts. economy, that recognises waste as a re-import) of electricity via the national grid Underpinned by a transition to resource as opposed to a cost (Ellen and local distribution networks. More renewable energy sources, the McArthur Foundation, 2017). progress in demand management can be circular model builds economic, Currently, Welsh Water uses a large amount made through adoption of energy efficient natural and social capital of electricity (467 GWh in 2015/16) to pump equipment, whilst future designs for and treat water and wastewater. Between treatment and pumping systems must (Ellen McArthur 2011 and 2016 the price of delivered prioritise energy efficiency. Specific actions Foundation, 2017) ” electricity increased by 59% grid supplied will include: energy is likely to get more expensive in the • Supporting the redesign of works Customer impact future. The impact of increased winter rainfall replacements and upgrades to minimise (caused by climate change) will further Current research suggests that customers consumption; increase the need for pumping and are more aware of climate change and its treatment, increasing energy use and costs. • Adopting proven emerging technologies potential impacts and believe Welsh Water Over 80% of the operational annual carbon and efficient control systems to minimise has a duty to plan for unknown eventualities footprint for our business is from the energy our energy consumption; (Welsh Water, 2015). used in treatment and distribution of water, • Expanding our renewable generation Customers are aware of ‘environmentally and collection and treatment of wastewater. portfolio; and friendly’ companies and recognise that most Tightening of effluent quality regulation is • Investigating energy storage facilities to companies have commitments to increase also possible and would increase energy increase resilience and manage energy their energy consumption from renewable consumption. sources. Therefore they feel it’s right that demand. Ofwat has proposed that changing regulation Welsh Water should also be following this in the market could help to exploit sludge as commitment (Accent, June 2013). a bioresource, both for energy generation Responding to future trends and as a fertiliser product (Ofwat, 2015). It The UK is facing the challenge of the “Energy has been estimated that the market for Trilemma”: how to maintain a secure, low sludge could be worth up to £780m (WWT carbon energy supply at an affordable cost. Online, 28th November 2016) and therefore The government has also accepted a legally exploiting this could provide long term value for our customers. binding commitment to reduce net CO2 emissions (equivalent) by at least 80% by Figure 80 : A storm. Climate change is likely to lead to an increased frequency of extreme weather events in Wales. By texaus1, Creative Commons License (CC-BY-2.0) Welsh Water 2050 105 3. Strategic Responses 3.14 Playing our part in combatting climate change

Customer promises Research and innovation Co-operative approach Customer promises Well-being goals Future To support this strategic response we will: We will work with our university partners to Safeguard our environment for trends • Research and innovation development develop more energy efficient treatment future generations A prosperous Wales processes and green technologies. into a wide range of energy efficient new Improved process efficiency and the The development of renewable water and sewage treatment processes We will engage with renewable energy development of renewable resources resources, improved process (particularly for our aged rural wastewater developers to identify the most effective will help to protect the environment. efficiency, and collaborative treatment processes) and monitoring to solutions to increase energy self-sufficiency. research with universities will help Fair bills for everyone to create an innovative, low carbon measure, manage and encourage energy We will work with developers and property efficient behaviours; Reduced reliance on volatile energy and productive society in Wales. owners to implement District Heating and costs will help Welsh Water to protect • Research alternative uses for sludge, and Combined Heat and Power schemes, using its customers from price fluctuations A globally responsible Wales wider resource recovery, in order to wasted heat from these assets. and increases, helping to ensure fair A reduced carbon footprint will maximise the value of waste as part of a We will explore with our business customers bills for everyone into the future support global efforts to mitigate the circular economy; opportunities for greater use of treated Create a better future for all our effects of climate change. • Research opportunities for additional grey wastewater (grey water). communities water recycling; Through the development of low A resilient Wales • Continue the development and roll out of carbon energy sources, and improved An energy-neutral system, with a energy efficiency of assets, we will be a variety of renewable energy reduced carbon footprint, will responding to the desires of our technologies; support social, economic and customers and helping Welsh Water to ecological resilience and the • Identify sources of sludge and develop mitigate climate change and provide a capacity to adapt to future change. sludge treatment to maximise efficiency; better future for global communities. • Further roll out of demand side management, tailoring our electricity consumption and generation to meet Grid demands, prevent black-outs and reduce costs; • Pilot the use of battery technologies to store surplus energy and increase resilience; • Support staff to undertake relevant courses of study and qualifications (for example, we currently support MSc in Energy Systems at University of Cardiff); and • Research heat recovery technologies from sewers in order to support our aim of becoming a net carbon neutral business. Welsh Water 2050 106

3. Strategic Responses 3.14 Playing our part in combatting climate change

We believe that we should play our part in combatting climate change. Only one scenario is included because our intention is to identify future self-funding opportunities for energy generation, improved energy efficiency and the reuse of natural materials, resulting in lower bills for customers in the long term.

Comprehensive scenario

Customer outcomes Actions • By delivering an energy neutral business we will increase self-supply of electricity and This scenario aims to establish Welsh Water as an energy neutral business by 2050. decrease reliance on grid supply. This will mean that we will have control over more of our In order to achieve this: energy supply so that we can better predict costs and provide better value for our • We will support the redesign of any works replacements or upgrades to minimise customers; energy consumption. We will also reduce energy consumption of pumps and • This scenario will increase our deployment of energy efficient treatment processes and treatment processes by adopting proven emerging technologies and implementing assets, for example, modern, low energy rural wastewater treatment methods; efficient control systems. We predict this could save 50 GWh of energy per year; • We will enhance our reputation by achieving an energy neutral business; and • We will expand our renewable generation portfolio by 250 GWh per year, with a • By being energy neutral, we will have reduced our carbon emissions by over 80% and financial payback period of 15 years; played our part in achieving the Welsh Government’s target set out in the Environment • We will look into energy storage facilities (for example, batteries, biogas, hydrogen) (Wales) Act (2016). to increase resilience and enable demand side response by avoiding use of grid when energy is most expensive; and • We will undertake research on the suitability of adopting emerging, innovative, technologies to improve our efficiency.

Total investment £500m Total cost £48m Welsh Water 2050 107 3. Strategic Responses 3.14 Playing our part in combatting climate change Current case study: Five Fords Energy Park - sustainable waste water treatment works

Issue the gas network and comprises three main The Five Fords Energy Park has transformed As one of the largest companies in Wales, we elements – the biogas upgrade unit, the a ‘routine’ waste water treatment works into a use a lot of energy to pump and treat our grid entry unit and the propane plant. It sustainable and carbon neutral site. By water and wastewater. To achieve an energy removes the CO2 in the biogas to leave combining multiple renewable technologies we neutral wastewater service, help manage the almost pure bio-methane, which is then have created a showcase site, demonstrating effects of climate change and reduce our injected into the national gas grid; and our intent to manage the electrical, gas and costs and carbon footprint, we are investing in • Solar photovoltaic panels. 10,000 solar heat demands of a site and meeting those renewable energy. Our aim is to generate at panels were constructed on the site as part needs from renewable sources. In doing so, least 30% of our energy needs by 2020. of the array. we are well on the way to creating a microcosm of the ‘smart thinking’ that we will To achieve our aspirations, we are developing By 2020 these will be complemented by: a range of renewable projects across our be the foundation for our journey to 2050. • A wind turbine; sites, with Five Fords Energy Park near Wrexham being one of the largest of these. • A hydropower installation on the outfall from the Works; Actions • Advanced aerobic digestion (AAD) which We are combining renewable technologies on will make full use of the gas to grid one site at Five Fords to have an energy capacity. positive, carbon negative site (having no net carbon emissions, meeting all its own energy Result needs and exporting any excess renewable The current configuration of AD / CHP, gas-to- energy into the National Grid, from where that grid and Solar PV has been running energy can be re-imported at another works). successfully since mid-2015. The gas to grid Technologies currently implemented at the plant runs consistently, producing 10 Energy Park are: GWh/year, sufficient to provide heating to 856 • Combined heat and power (CHP) utilising homes and equivalent to a carbon saving of gas generated through anaerobic 2,200 tonnes CO2 (equivalent). The solar PV digestion. The CHP engines are used to array generates 2 GWh a year of electricity, complement the gas to grid generating at which is mainly used on site and saves carbon peak times when our demand for electricity emissions of 1,000 tonnes a year. is high or when the price of imported Looking to the future, total carbon savings and electricity is high as well as when energy production are set to triple with the additional heat is required for the implementation of the wind turbine, hydro processes on site; initiative at the works outfall and the ADD • Bio-methane injection (gas-to-grid). This plant. enables the treatment and injection of biogas produced on site to be injected into Figure 81 : Five Fords energy park. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 108

4. Affordability for Customers

Comprehensive Progressive Investment Investment Welsh Water 2050 expenditure summary Total Cost (2) Total Cost (2) Cost (1) Cost(1) Strategic responses £m £m £m £m

At Welsh Water, we are acutely aware that outcomes for society more efficiently; and 1: Safeguarding clean drinking water by working with nature 400 317 150 121 any expenditure we incur is ultimately paid for • Minimising our running costs by looking at 2: Enough water for all 600 527 600 527 by our customers through water and new ways of working and exploiting sewerage bills and, that the areas of Wales opportunities for savings resulting from 3: Improving the reliability of drinking water supply systems 1,400 929 500 330 and England that we serve include our asset investments. communities that are amongst the poorest in the UK. For the purposes of the costing information 4: Protecting our critical water supply assets 150 298 150 298 presented in in this document, we have Cost and efficiencies assumed that technological advances and 5: Achieving acceptable water quality for all customers 2,400 1,762 600 446 The potential investment cost of addressing new innovative practices will present the future challenges we face could be opportunities for reducing unit costs of capital 6: Towards a lead free Wales 45 33 45 33 between £4 and £10 billion over the next 30 projects by some 1-2% a year (excluding the years (See Table 6). This investment cost impact of inflation). If this could be achieved, 7: Addressing our ‘worst served’ customers 240 213 0 6 represents high level indicative estimates of it would mean that our unit cost of capital the additional expenditure, over and above delivery would be some 50% lower in 2050 8: Employer of choice 0 26 0 26 our ongoing business as usual costs, to than it is today. This is an ambitious deliver the outcomes outlined in our strategic assumption but achievable if the pace of 9: Leading edge customer service 180 147 180 147 responses. It is important that we consult with change currently being seen is sustainable customers, policymakers and stakeholders over the long-term. 10: Smart water business 250 496 250 496 on Welsh Water 2050, to gain their views as Customer bills to whether this level of investment is 11: Using nature to reduce flood risk and pollution 2,600 2,091 700 577 supported and considered affordable. Welsh Water’s charges to customers are set every 5 years by the industry regulator, Given the potential large size of this Ofwat. This process, known as a “Price 12: Cleaner rivers and beaches 1,200 1,507 600 807 investment programme, it will be absolutely Review” takes into account priorities crucial for us to seek innovative and identified by customers for the next 5 years, 13: Protecting our critical wastewater assets 200 397 200 397 dramatically more efficient ways to deliver in the context of governments' policies. The both these improvements and our ongoing next Price Review is in 2019 which will set 14: Playing our part in combating climate change 500 48 500 48 service. We will aim to deliver good value for charges for the 5 years 2020- 2025. money for our customers and are committed 10,165 8,766 4,475 4,259 to drive down costs by: • Seeking innovative new technologies to (1) Investment costs represent the capital expenditure that would be incurred at today’s unit cost of deliver lower investment costs; delivery before future efficiency improvements. (2) Total cost is the investment cost plus the additional running costs to operate and maintain the • Working in partnership with others to take investment net of any offsetting savings that result, and net of forecast improvements in efficiency advantage of better ways of working from new technology and innovative ways of working. In some cases, the efficiencies more than together that will deliver improved offset the additional running costs, resulting in the total cost being less than the investment cost. (3) Price base – all costs are stated at today’s price levels i.e. excluding the effect of inflation. Table 6 : Investment costs and total costs for all comprehensive and progressive strategic responses Welsh Water 2050 109

4. Affordability for Customers

A useful measure of affordability is how scenarios: comprehensive, which aims to increasingly important to protect those that customer bills compare to customers’ fully address the challenges and already struggle to pay. This is identified as a income. Over the period 2001 to 2017, Welsh opportunities presented by the future trends, priority for the Welsh Government in its Water’s average household bill rose by some and progressive, which aims to make Water Strategy for Wales (WG, Water 1% a year more than inflation (as measured prioritised progress towards fully meeting Strategy for Wales, 2015). by the Consumer Price Index, CPI). Over the these challenges and opportunities, but Welsh Water is the industry leader in period 2001 to 2014 average household which could leave more work for future providing support to customers with difficulty disposable income in Wales also rose by generations to accelerate the pace of in paying their bills. Our range of affordability some 1% more than CPI inflation (ONS, May mitigation. Were we to pursue the tariffs currently helps over 70,000 customers 2016),. Broadly speaking, water bills as a comprehensive scenario for all strategic and we aim to extend this to some 100,000 proportion of average household income responses, we estimate (after taking into customers by 2020. The cost of lower tariffs have stayed fairly static over the long-term. account the opportunities for efficiencies for these customers is met by charging other This is reflected in customer surveys where presented by new technology and innovative customers a little more and by direct subsidy 82% believe that Welsh Water’s bills ways of working), that customer bills would by Welsh Water itself. This approach was represents good value for money (Consumer increase by around 1% per annum above formulated in conjunction with Welsh Council for Water, 2016). (CPIH) inflation, which might be expected to Government’s Social Tariff Guidance (WG However, it is vitally important that each be broadly in line with the future growth of 2014) and underpinned by customer Price Review takes account of customers’ average household incomes over the long- research which demonstrated strong circumstances at that time. This will vary term. Similarly, were we to pursue the customer willingness to support from one Price Review to another. Factors progressive scenario for all strategic disadvantaged customers (Accent, 2014). such as general price inflation and expected responses, we estimate that customer bills would increase by inflation only. It is our intention that Welsh Water will over growth in average household incomes need the long-term continue to help a growing to be taken into account but the most Supporting vulnerable customers proportion of those customers who struggle important feedback will come directly from It is estimated that some 300,000 (23%) to pay their bills by setting appropriate customers. Welsh Water has, and will households in Wales are currently living in charges for those in need. This will need the continue to, engage with customers to poverty (defined as in receipt of less than continuing support both of government help assess their priorities and the level of bills 60% of median household income) (ONS, and the support of the generality of which customers regard as Value for Money. 2016). As identified in Future Trends (Section customers, as well as continued direct This means that over the longer-term, we will 3.4 Changes to the Structure of the funding from the company. In particular, with adopt a flexible position on the pace of Economy), income inequality has risen over access to necessary governmental delivery of Welsh Water 2050, reassessing the past few decades and could rise even information, we could aim to ensure that customers’ views every 5 years. further in the future. This has implications for every customer pays the lowest charge Indicative impact of Welsh Water 2050 on how the costs of water and sewerage applicable in their circumstances, helping to bills services are recovered from customers. If ensure that everyone's bill is fair and For some of the strategic responses society as a whole decides that it wants affordable. presented in section 3, we describe two improved outcomes and is prepared to pay more in bills for them, then it becomes Figure 82 : One of our customers enjoying a glass of water. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 110

5. Helping to Create a Better Future for Communities Contribution to the Well-being of Future Generations Act

The Welsh Water 2050 strategy considers To ensure that Welsh public bodies are both the direction for our own business and working towards the same vision, the Act outlines the impact we want to have on the puts into place seven well-being goals: people, wider economy and natural • A prosperous Wales; Well-being Goals environment of our operating area in Wales and England. • A resilient Wales; The strategy contributes to the wider goals of • A healthier Wales; the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) • A more equal Wales; Act 2015 (Welsh Government, 2016c) and • A Wales of cohesive communities; the Water Strategy for Wales (Welsh Government, 2015a). It also contributes to • A Wales of vibrant culture and thriving addressing the risks and opportunities Welsh Language; and outlined in the State of Natural Resources • A globally responsible Wales. Report (Natural Resources Wales, 2016). The Well-being of Future Generations Wales resilient A Wales prosperous A Wales healthier A Wales equal more A communities cohesive of Wales A and culture vibrant of Wales A language Welsh thriving Wales responsible globally A Contribution to the Well-being of Future (Wales) Act 2015 does not apply directly to 1: Safeguarding clean drinking water by working with nature Generations Act Welsh Water, as we are not a public body. 2: Enough water for all The Well-being of Future Generations However, our approach set out in Welsh 3: Improving the reliability of drinking water supply systems Water 2050 and our mission statement are (Wales) Act 2015 is about improving the 4: Protecting our critical water supply assets social, economic, environmental and cultural very closely aligned with the Welsh 5: Achieving acceptable water quality for all customers well-being of Wales, to create a country that Government’s own long-term policy agenda. we all want to live in now and in the future. It The fourteen Welsh Water 2050 strategic 6: Towards a lead free Wales places a duty on public bodies in Wales to responses make a significant contribution to 7: Addressing our ‘worst served’ customers think about the long-term, work more the seven wellbeing goals, as described 8: Employer of choice cohesively with people and the communities, throughout this report and shown in Table 7. 9: Leading edge customer service prevent problems and take a more joined-up Public policy in England 10: Smart water business approach. We believe that this long term approach 11: Using nature to reduce flood risk and pollution aimed at improving the wellbeing of future 12: Cleaner rivers and beaches generations is equally relevant to our 13: Protecting our critical wastewater assets customers in England. We will have a close 14: Playing our part in combating climate change regard to the future direction of UK government policy and will ensure that our Table 7 : Links between Well-being goals and strategic responses activities in England are closely aligned with them. Welsh Water 2050 111

5. Helping to Create a Better Future for Communities Contribution to the Water Strategy for Wales

The Welsh Government’s Water Strategy for the possible transfer of water supply pipes Wales (Welsh Government, 2015a) focuses to water supply companies and promotion on how Wales can increase the resilience of of approved plumbers schemes; Water Strategy for Wales Themes our whole water system (both natural and • 21st century drainage and sewage managed) in order to maximise the benefits systems – this theme aims to encourage and reduce costs to customers, businesses the construction of sustainable urban and the environment. drainage systems through the publication The strategy sets out six key themes: of National Standards, undertake a review • Water for nature, people and business of current drainage ownership, and give – this theme works towards a sustainable guidance on septic systems; and relationship between people and the • Supporting delivery – this theme aims to natural water environment. Possible ensure that the Welsh Government interventions include, for example, supports the delivery of the Water reforming abstraction licensing and Strategy for Wales through reviewing the reducing diffuse pollution through structure of Government, water

catchment co-operation and payments for regulators, stakeholders and companies nature,people for Water and business Improvingwaythewe plan and manageourwater services Deliveringexcellent services to customers Protectingand improving drinking waterquality century21stdrainage and seweragesystems SupportingDelivery ecosystems services; and setting out its priorities in a statutory 1: Safeguarding clean drinking water by working with nature Strategic Policy Statement. • Improving the way we plan and 2: Enough water for all manage our water services – this theme The 14 Welsh Water 2050 strategic 3: Improving the reliability of drinking water supply systems works towards streamlining existing responses contribute to the six key themes of legislative, regulatory and planning the Water Strategy for Wales, as shown in 4: Protecting our critical water supply assets processes associated with water services Table 8. 5: Achieving acceptable water quality for all customers management and waste water and sewage management; 6: Towards a lead free Wales • Delivering excellent services to 7: Addressing our ‘worst served’ customers customers – this theme aims for 8: Employer of choice excellent customer service. In the main, it 9: Leading edge customer service covers affordability of water services and the uptake of social tariffs as well as the 10: Smart water business costs and benefits of metering; 11: Using nature to reduce flood risk and pollution • Protecting and improving drinking 12: Cleaner rivers and beaches water quality – this theme covers 13: Protecting our critical wastewater assets improving drinking water quality through review of private water supply regulations, 14: Playing our part in combating climate change

Table 8 : Links between the Water Strategy for Wales themes and strategic responses Welsh Water 2050 112

5. Helping to Create a Better Future for Communities Contribution to the State of Natural Resources Report (SoNaRR)

SoNaRR Opportunities

The State of Natural Resources Report (Natural Resources Wales, 2016), referred to as SoNaRR, sets out the state of Wales’ natural resources. It assesses the extent to which natural resources in Wales are being sustainably managed, and recommends a co- operative, proactive approach to building resilience. SoNaRR centres around a natural resources and wellbeing risk register which records each of the risks against the Wellbeing of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 goals for each of the habitat types in Wales. Greeninfrastructure inand around urbanareas Increasingwoodland cover& appropriatemanagement of woodlands Coastalzone management and managedrealignment Maintaining,enhacing and restoring floodplainsand hydrological systems soil Better management Utilisationouruplands of deliver to multiplebenefits SoNaRR also identifies six areas which 1: Safeguarding clean drinking water by working with nature Natural Resources Wales believes hold the 2: Enough water for all greatest opportunity for mitigating the risks identified, whilst contributing to the well-being 3: Improving the reliability of drinking water supply systems goals. These six areas are: 4: Protecting our critical water supply assets • Green Infrastructure in and around urban areas; 5: Achieving acceptable water quality for all customers • Increasing woodland cover, and bringing 6: Towards a lead free Wales more of our existing woodlands into appropriate management; 7: Addressing our ‘worst served’ customers • Coastal zone management and managed 8: Employer of choice realignment; • Maintaining, enhancing and restoring 9: Leading edge customer service floodplains and hydrological systems; 10: Smart water business • Better soil management; and 11: Using nature to reduce flood risk and pollution • Utilisation of our uplands to deliver multiple benefits. 12: Cleaner rivers and beaches The 14 Welsh Water 2050 strategic 13: Protecting our critical wastewater assets responses are aligned with the six opportunities identified in SoNaRR, as shown 14: Playing our part in combating climate change in Table 9. Table 9 : Links between SonNaRR opportunities and strategic responses Welsh Water 2050 113

6. Delivering the Future Through Innovation

The imperative for research and Creating a strategy for technological innovation innovation Innovation will be essential to become a truly We have developed innovation strategies world-class, resilient and sustainable water aligned with the 14 strategic responses to service by 2050, and our future research will address research and knowledge gaps, be driven by Welsh Water 2050. Welsh Water encourage the trial of near-market is placing itself at the leading edge of technologies and the adoption of new innovation in the water industry through: technologies. • Setting out an ambitious, long term To build and maintain connections with key approach in Welsh Water 2050: We need stakeholders, we host an annual innovation to ensure that we can deliver affordably conference to share innovations that can help for customers, and deliver the efficiencies us to achieve our vision. The forum brings the we’ve assumed are achievable to 2050 latest technologies, innovations and products through major innovation. We need to into the business from across the globe. continue to look widely for new We’ve worked with over 72 companies this technologies, and better ways of doing year to trial, modify and adapt their products things so that we can ensure best value to help us to improve our services. For for money; example, this includes the use of drones to • Effective research: We need to ensure our inspect the condition of assets that are decisions are based on sound evidence; usually expensive and hazardous to reach. • Collaboration: We will continue to collaborate with other organisations on a domestic and international scale, including through events such as our annual innovation conference, which attracted 300-400 participants in January 2017. For our next conference in January 2018, we will present our new long-term innovation strategy and plan, focused on delivering the priorities identified in Welsh Water 2050. We will publish our Innovation Strategy worldwide, and seeking ideas as to how to progress our priorities. We will update that strategy every five years. Figure 83 : Innovation at Welsh Water during 2015/16. © Welsh Water Welsh Water 2050 114

6. Delivering the Future Through Innovation

Helping to inform decisions through Encouraging innovation internally Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015, a co- Creating resilience science and research A key part of innovation is the fostering of ordinated approach with our stakeholders will We know that strengthening the resilience of We will work with research partners to gather ideas and the development of an be required. We will participate in our networks, systems and people is key to data and apply rigorous evidence to make environment in which colleagues are partnerships with a range of stakeholders, achieving our vision. We’ve been making sure we are making the correct investment encouraged to innovate and take reasonable including Public Service Boards, Green Seas improvements to our service by using data decisions on behalf of our customers. This risks to test their ideas. One of our company Partnership, the Independent Environmental and analytical modelling to better target our includes research to better quantify the values is to be ‘open to new ideas’. Advisory Panel (IEAP) and catchment scale problems. For example, we have invested effects of climate change on our water partnership groups. We will also work closely heavily in data analysis and innovative Continuing to build improved capacity and with communities to co-create and deliver resources, monitor our treatment systems resilience in our people is key. We support remediation techniques in the Zonal Studies and networks more effectively, investigate solutions such as RainScape sustainable programme to understand and address the and sponsor qualifications such as MSc’s and drainage systems. resilient localised treatment systems and other courses through local universities. causes of discoloured water in affected build an understanding of the effects of Our partnerships with the Natural communities. Our colleagues can share ideas through our emerging contaminants on our ability to Environment Research Council (NERC) and Sharing ideas internationally provide safe water into the future, amongst innovation web portal, ‘ilab’ and through our other environmental bodies help us to tackle many others. internal innovation forums, both of which environmental challenges, as well as gain the We will work with other water companies encourage colleagues from across Welsh data to make decisions for the future. from across the world to share knowledge We have developed relationships with well Water to come together to discuss new ideas, and best practice. Past experience has placed research partners, including UK Water technologies and products. Managed by our The WISDOM project has seen us working shown us that gaining an international insight and Industry Research, Cardiff University Heads of Service, they act as a catalyst to with international partners to research how helps us to develop the most sustainable Water Research Institute, and the National bring innovation into the business. Each new technologies can help us to improve the solutions. For our award-winning RainScape Environment Research Council (NERC) with project considered by the forum must services we deliver to our customers. Part of work we looked around the world, from whom we have a strategic Memorandum of contribute towards meeting the challenges the pilot project involved the installation of Malmö, Sweden to Portland, USA to help us Understanding. Our joint research with set out in our 2050 Vision. digital smart meters which measure water develop a sustainable system for reducing Cardiff University will include an analysis of usage wirelessly in selected properties in Co-creation across the water cycle sewerage flooding and pollution. Similarly, we future scenarios for Wales in 2050, with Cardiff. WISDOM is funded from the have exchanged information in the last 12 reference to the changing climate, natural Partnership working and third-party European Union Seventh Framework months with all the European Union Water environment, economy and regulation. collaboration will support the delivery of this Programme for research, technological Companies via EurEau, and reviewed strategy. We will engage with key development and demonstration. technologies on the ground in the USA for stakeholders, such as Welsh Government, Welsh Water will continue to encourage their stormwater treatment, which we are currently Natural Resources Wales and Local Alliance Partners and their supply chain to trialing here in Wales. Government, in the co-creation and delivery pursue innovation through appropriate of the strategic responses and the delivery of incentivisation and by developing honest and our customer promises to 2050. mutually beneficial partnerships. In order to reap the multiple benefits of many of the strategic responses and contribute to the Well-being Goals from the Well-being of Welsh Water 2050 115

6. Delivering the Future Through Innovation Recent case studies At Welsh Water, we are striving to continuously innovate at every level of the organisation – both in terms of our internal operations, and how we work with external stakeholders. Some examples of innovative activities are given below.

Arfon’s Eureka Moment PestSmart Coastal Investigation Geraint’s Toolkit

Improving efficiency and safety of filter Sustainably managing weeds and pests Safeguarding and improving water quality The creation of new tools for sewer maintenance maintenance

Occasionally, we use filters to investigate Our water monitoring programme had Our coastal investigation programme has During sewer blockage the tools available for discolouration in our pipes, which are detected increased levels of pesticides and focused on improving the water quality of 49 the job were not always sufficient to remove swapped at specific intervals. The process of other chemicals in the environment, including bathing and shellfish waters in Wales. the blockage. This meant that contractors swapping the filters over can be time in areas where we have never seen them This includes establishing our impact on were required to undertake excavation works consuming, involving welding and clamping. before. This presents a risk to the Wales’ marine waters and what needs to be to access the blockage. Arfon Jones-Hughes, a member of our water environment and raw water quality. done to improve water quality, both by us and Geraint Williams was given the freedom to distribution team in north Wales, came up with PestSmart sees us working in partnership by other stakeholders. create new ideas to remove these blockages. a new idea for improving safety, and reducing with Natural Resources Wales and the We have undertaken modelling to understand He created various prototype tools in order to the time it takes to swap filters over. He found agricultural community to consider smarter which assets need upgrading to meet water access and remove novel blockages. This has that a person’s body weight cold be used as a and more environmentally friendly methods of quality standards and are working with prevented the requirement to dig up roads counter lever to open and close the filter, and weed, pest and disease control. This includes Natural Resources Wales what other controls and gardens causing less disruption to our he built a prototype foot stand in order to test providing advice and practical solutions, as are required to reduce diffuse pollution. customers as well as providing costs savings. his concept. The prototype halved the time it well as offering a free pesticide disposal We plan to share our coastal models with Welsh Water have supported Geraint in filing took to safely replace a filter. His design won service. Improving raw water quality will help Welsh Government, Natural Resources Wales seven patent application for each of these an award at our annual Health and Safety to protect the environment, and reduces the and academia to assist in investigations. tools. conference, and has been rolled out across need to use chemicals and energy in the final the company. treatment process.

Figure 84 : Changing a filter. © Welsh Water. Figure 85 : Weed control. © Welsh Water. Figure 86 : Marine surveying. © Welsh Water. Figure 87 : Anaerobic Digester © Welsh Water. Welsh Water 2050 116

7. Stakeholder and Public Consultation

We aim to engage with a wide range of Welsh Water would like to understand your stakeholders during the formulation of this views on the following questions: document and invite views on the proposed • Have we identified the right trends? strategic responses. • Have we developed the right strategic We have invited a wide range of stakeholders responses in order to meet these trends? to share their views with us, including: • Which strategic responses are priorities in • Our customers; the next 5-10 years in order to start to • Customer Challenge Group; meet the challenges and opportunities up • Welsh Government; to 2050? • Natural Resources Wales; • Which scenario (progressive or comprehensive) is appropriate for each • Consumer Council for Water; strategic response? • Drinking Water Inspectorate; • What level of trade-off are you prepared • Ofwat; to accept between bills and long-term investment in your water and wastewater • Independent Environmental Advisory service? “Your Company. Panel; and Our customers and stakeholders can respond • The office of the Future Generations to these questions at Commissioner for Wales. www.welshwater.com/yourcompanyyoursay. Your Say” The consultation closes at the end of July 2017. Following a consultation period, we are planning to publish a final version of Welsh Water 2050 in 2018. It will then inform future Business Planning processes, in particular for the period 2020-2025, which will be covered in our Business Plan submission to Ofwat in September 2018. Welsh Water 2050 117

Appendix 1 : Background to the Development of Welsh Water 2050 Emerging future trends

Development of Welsh Water 2050 nanotechnologies, genomics and big data • The many challenges likely to be faced by The development of Welsh Water 2050 provide opportunities for water and energy water companies in the future question included horizon scanning for future trends efficiency, water security and water the appropriateness of existing models of and future scenarios and the Welsh Water resource management. governance. Resilience Framework. • Climate change will have a considerable Future scenarios We commissioned Cardiff University to impact on water quality, infrastructure, Scenarios were a valuable tool for assessing undertake this horizon scanning in the and services. While costly, adaptation interactions between drivers of change and ‘Emerging Challenges to Resilience in the here will be key to resilience. for describing dynamic processes and Water Sector’ report. This identified future • Land use changes in the uplands, in uncertainty in complex systems. They helped trends and drivers future scenarios and urbanisation and in lowland agriculture in identify factors in the present that while potential research topics that would be key to Wales and adjacent regions are likely to currently deemed unimportant, may become enabling us to achieve our mission. interact with climate and demographic dominant drivers in future. The Welsh Water Resilience Framework built change to have major impact on water Among five scenarios reviewed, those based on this horizon scanning and a best practice quality and quantity. on market-orientated growth tended to have literature review to create a framework to • Macroeconomic change may impact negative implications for the water assess the current resilience of Welsh Water revenue streams, investment environment, due to increased pressures on and identify any gaps. opportunities and pricing decisions, but production. Scenarios focussed mostly on Future trends short-term economic fluctuations are local production were also negative because unlikely to prove problematical for of their reliance on intensifying domestic Potential drivers of major change were planning purposes. agriculture and industry. Those scenarios that considered across the social, technological, • Uncertainty over future energy prices is a were formed by the combination of a environmental, economic and politico-legal conservationist society and either a global realms. This identified that: planning challenge for water companies and is likely to be an important driver economy or long-term sustainability generally • Demographic change will be a key driver investment in renewable technologies. had improved environment responses for of future demand and pressure on water example placing a higher value on social and services, but water surplus in Wales could • The recent Brexit decision is a significant ecological benefit. alleviate adjacent water stressed areas. area of uncertainty over the future direction in a wide range of areas that • Lifestyle choices by individuals impact affect the water industry. water demand and will further stress the aquatic environment. However increased • Future constitutional change from the awareness of environmental issues, and devolved Welsh government could innovative technologies, are opportunities simplify the policy making and to change behaviours towards water. implementation process and could act as a spur to innovation. • Technological advances in Welsh Water 2050 118

Appendix 1 : Background to the Development of Welsh Water 2050 Formation of Welsh Water’s resilience framework

The Resilience Framework (Arup, 2017) was • UK policy and sector guidance from the developed by working alongside Arup and Cabinet Office, Environment Agency and Cardiff University, based on research, Welsh Defra; and context and global good practice. • Ofwat guidance. The aim was to assist Welsh Water to: Welsh Water Resilience Framework • foster a shared understanding of global Our review of frameworks and guidance best practice; documents clearly showed four key elements • assess current resilience performance; that are central to resilience frameworks: and short-term shocks and long-term stresses, • develop recommendations for a 2050 qualities, lens, and process. vision. The working definition of resilience has been The short-term shocks and long-term adopted from Ofwat (Ofwat, 2015). stresses that may impact Welsh Water were identified in the good practice ‘Resilience is the ability to cope with, and review and by the research undertaken by recover from, disruption, and anticipate Cardiff University in the report ‘Emerging trends and variability in order to maintain Challenges to Resilience in the Water Sector’ services for people and protect the natural (Cardiff University, 2016). These are environment, now and in the future.’ discussed in more detail in the section on Good practice review ‘Future Challenges’. A review was undertaken of resilience Shocks are disruptive events, which impact guidance, frameworks, strategies and the ability to provide a high quality service, implementation, including: and stresses are chronic conditions, which weaken the function of the organisation or • City Resilience Index (used by 100 system in the long-term. Resilient Cities network including Vejle, Rotterdam, Bristol and New York); • OECD Resilient Cities; • Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction; • Cabinet Office Resilience Guidance; • Global Risk Report, World Economic Forum; • UKRN cross sector resilience;

Appendix 1 : Background to the development of Welsh Water 2050 Welsh Water 2050 119

Appendix 1 : Background to the Development of Welsh Water 2050 Formation of Welsh Water’s resilience framework

Resourceful Principles of Working, detailed in Figure through workshops with key staff, identifying Robust Reflective Using systems and 88a, are characteristics shown by resilient critical areas of weakness, and actions and Establishing well Learning from past resources in systems which are important to prevent the programmes to strengthen it. The lens was managed systems experience for future alternate ways decisions failure of systems, and enable appropriate based on the City Resilience Index, as actions to be undertaken. These principles, applied to our customer promises. adopted by Welsh Water, align closely with Redundant The process is a methodology for Providing spare Integrated Adaptive the principles described in the Well-being of implementation of the framework which capacity to avoid Aligning a range of Adopting an alternate strategy to adapt to Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. covers the whole of the lifecycle, including dependence on a systems single asset circumstances The lens, shown in Figure 88b, provides an goal development, best practice review, lens overview of the elements of a water utility generation, assessment of current resilience Inclusive company that need to be considered in performance, development and prioritisation Long-Term Innovative Broadening improving resilience. The lens comprises of recommendations for 2050 and regular Ensuring actions are Developing cutting consultation and future proofed edge processes three dimensions (as shown in the inner evaluation of outcomes. communication wheel). People are at the heart of the lens; ensuring the health and wellbeing of our staff and Figure 88a : Principles of working customers, including in times of crisis. Infrastructure and environment explores our role in protecting and enhancing the resilience of ecosystems and providing resilient man-made infrastructure to provide critical services, meeting the requirements of the Environment (Wales) Act 2016 (Welsh Government, 2016d). Finance and strategy explores the way in which an organization needs to plan and operate flexibly, funding appropriate actions in a way that is affordable for all, with strong and effective governance. The lens includes nine outcomes that Welsh Water wish to achieve, and 40 indicators which detail what areas will need to be considered to meet them. We used the lens to assess our resilience Figure 88b : Resilience Lens and principles of working. © Arup Welsh Water 2050 120

Appendix 1 : Background to the Development of Welsh Water 2050 Welsh Water’s resilience performance

Welsh Water’s Future Resilience Performance Our initial view of current level of resilience is displayed on the lens to identify areas of best-practice and areas for improvement, is shown in Figure 89. The lens has levels 1 to 4, which are used to assess the business against quantitative metrics and a qualitative vision of what an organisation looks like with differing levels of resilience. These levels are shown in Table 10. This assessment will be reviewed at least every 5 years to ensure that our future Asset Management Plans are making priorities progress towards best practice.

Level Definition Explanation

Meets legislation, with no further Meets legal requirements, such as the 1 consideration of Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive resilience Follows guidance, Identifies actions beyond those which are but goes beyond this required by legislation in order to improve 2 to achieve greater the long term resilience of the organisation, resilience such as making use of existing technology Current global best Makes use of global best practice in order to practice measures develop a response that delivers a very high 3 with a high level of level of resilience, such as OECD Resilient resilience Cities framework Invests in research than identifies future Horizon scanning, trends and responses that go beyond 4 dealing with existing best practice, such as potential plausible futures Figure 89 : An assessment of emerging risks to public health. Welsh Water’s current Table 10 : Resilience performance definitions resilience © Arup (Arup, 2017) Welsh Water 2050 121

Appendix 1 : Background to the Development of Welsh Water 2050 Welsh Water’s resilience performance

Welsh Water’s Future Resilience Performance We have completed assessments of projected resilience performance in 2050 if we completed all of the progressive or all of the comprehensive scenarios. These are displayed in Figure 90. Whilst our resilience would be greatly improved by 2050 were we to deliver the comprehensive scenario, there would remain areas for improvement. This exercise will be repeated during the development of our 2020-2025 (AMP7) and 2020-2030 (AMP8) plans, to ensure progress priorities in line with our customers expectations.

Figure 90 : An indication of how Welsh Water’s resilience may be increased by progressive and comprehensive scenarios © Arup Welsh Water 2050 122

Appendix 1 : Background to the development of Welsh Water 2050 Global best practice

City Resilience Index (CRI) OECD Resilient Cities Well-being of Future Generations Cabinet Office Resilience Guidance Act The City Resilience Index (CRI) was developed The Organisation for Economic Co-operation Welsh Government’s Well-being of Future The Cabinet Office produced ‘Keeping the by Arup, supported by the Rockefeller and Development (OECD) launched a report in Generations (Wales) Act 2016 is world leading Country Running: Natural Hazards and Foundation, building on 3 years of research. 2016 investigating how cities can increase their legislation which enshrines sustainable Infrastructure’ guidance to improve the The CRI provides a lens to understand the resilience, applying it to ten cities around the development as a statutory duty. It ensures resilience of critical infrastructure and essential complexity of cities. It has four dimensions, world. It considers shocks and persistent that public bodies in Wales think about long- services. It identified four components of twelve goals and seven qualities of a resilient pressures, seven qualities of a resilient entities, term planning and cohesive working with the infrastructure resilience (resistance, reliability, system. The CRI has been used as a and four areas to build a resilience profile public, prevent problems and take a more redundancy, and response & recovery) and a framework to support the development of (economy, society, governance and integrated approach. The Act includes seven four step cycle to build resilience (evaluate resilience strategies in cities around the world, environment) and policy recommendations. well-being goals (described earlier in this resilience, identify risks, assess risk and build through the 100 Resilient Cities network. report) and five sustainable development resilience). (Arup, 2017) (OECD, 2016) principles. (Welsh Government, 2016c) (Cabinet Office, 2011)

Global Risk Report, World UK Regulators Network Cross Ofwat Towards Resilience Sendai Framework for Disaster Economic Forum Sector Resilience Risk Reduction

For over 10 years the Global Risk Report has The UK Regulators Network (UKRN) is made Ofwat has recommended actions for water Untied Nations Office for Disaster Risk focused attention on global risks and their up of the UK’s economic regulators. This report companies to take to improve resilience. These Reduction (UNISDR) has created the Sendai interconnections. Climate change (and failure of focused on ways to tackle challenges to the include developing an understanding of risk and Framework which is a 15-year, voluntary, non- mitigation) and extreme weather events have resilience of the UK’s national infrastructure. It failure, exploring clear routes for funding, planning binding agreement. It recognises the State has regularly been in the top 5 (for impact and particularly focuses on those that have cross- for resilience at a regional and national level, the main role to reduce disaster risk, but likelihood) for the past six years. Water crisis sector implications such as shared challenges developing metrics, public engagement and a responsibility is also shared with other has been in the top 5 risks (for impact) for the and shared reliance. consideration of reliance on other sectors. stakeholders, like local government, the private last five years. sector.

(World Economic Forum, 2017) (UK Regulators Network, 2017) (Ofwat, 2015) (UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015) Welsh Water 2050 123

Bibliography

Accent, June 2013, Environmental Issues - spatiotemporal forecasting, The Lancet , Bryan, j., Jones, C., Munday, M., Roberts, A., findings , TOPLINE Qualitative Findings Volume 386 , Issue 9989, pp. 163 – 170 Roche, N., 2013, Water Works, The https://www.matchtech.com/sites/default/files/ Accent, March 2014, Welsh Water Social Borg, S.P., Kelly, N., Markopoulos, A., Regional Economic Impact of Dwr Cymru wysiwyg/documents/Matchtech%202016%20 Tariff Research Quantitative Findings Strachan, P., Porteous, C. and Sharpe, T. , Welsh Water , University of Cardiff Water%20%26%20Environment%20Skill%20 2011, Communal residential laundry washing Cabinet Office, 20th February 2013, Shortage%20Survey%20findings.pdf Anglian Water, United Utilities and Yorkshire [Accessed on 8th February 2017] Water, 2015, “Water 2020” - Long Term and drying: can it provide demand-side Guidance on pandemic flu 2013, Challenges and Uncertainties for the Water electrical load flexibility? , 2nd International https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pandemic-flu Committee on Climate Change, The Climate Sector of the Future. Conference in Microgeneration and Related [Accessed on 9th February 2017] Change Act and UK regulations, Technologies, Glasgow April 4-6 2011 Carboni, D., Gluhak, A., McCann, J. and https://www.theccc.org.uk/tackling-climate- Angus, A., Burgess, P.J., Morris, J. and change/the-legal-landscape/global-action-on- Lingard, J., 2009, Agriculture and land use: Bridgeman, J., 2011, Water industry asset Beach, T. , 2016, Contextualising water use management in England and Wales: in residential settings: a survey of non- climate-change/ [Accessed on 13th February Demand for and supply of agricultural 2017] commodities, characteristics of the farming Successes and challenges., Water and intrusive techniques and approaches, and food industries, and implications for land Environment Journal 25, pp. 318-326 Sensors 16, pp.738 Committee on Climate Change, 2017, use in the UK., Land Use Policy 26, S230– Brown, D., 6th November 2016, How AI is Cardiff University, 2016, Emerging Climate Change Risk Assessment S242 improving consumer engagement and Challenges to Resilience in the Water Sector Consumer Council for Water, 2016, Water Arnold, K.E., Boxall, A.B.A., Brown, A.R., et customer experience Chappells, H., Medd, W. and Shove, E. , Matters Household customers’ views on their al., 2013, Assessing the exposure risk and Brown, M., Margolis, S.,, 2012, Lead in 2011, Disruption and change: Drought and water and sewerage services 2015, impacts of pharmaceuticals in the Drinking Water and Human Blood Lead the inconspicuous dynamics of garden lives, https://www.ccwater.org.uk/wp- environment on individuals and ecosystems. , Levels in the United States, Morbidity and Social and Cultural Geography 12, pp. 701– content/uploads/2016/06/CCWater-Water- Biology Letters 9 Mortality Weekly Report, 61(04);1-9, 715 Matters-Report-to-client-FINAL20.pdf [Accessed on 42855] Arntz, M., T. Gregory and U. Zierahn , 2016, https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrht Christierson, B. v., Vidal, J.P. and Wade, The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD ml/su6104a1.htm [Accessed on 9th February S.D., 2012, Using UKCP09 probabilistic DEFRA, 2012, A climate change risk Countries: A Comparative Analysis, OECD 2017] climate information for UK water resource assessment for Wales Social, Employment and Migration Working Brownlie, J., Peckham, C., Waage, J., planning, Journal of Hydrology 424–425, pp. Deloitte, 2013, A Guide to Investing in Wales: Papers, No. 189, OECD Publishing, Paris., Woolhouse, M., Lyall, C., Meagher, L., Tait, 48-67 Appendix 1 - Key Sectors., pp. 35 .http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5jlz9h56dvq7-en J., Baylis, M. and Nicoll, A. , 2006, Foresight. Chui, M., J. Manyika, and M. Miremadi, Deloitte, 2015, Water trading - scope, [Accessed on 15th February 2017]" Infectious Diseases: preparing for the future. , November 2015, Four fundamentals of benefits and options Arup, 2016, The Circular Economy in the Future Threats. Office of Science and workplace automation, McKinsey Quarterl, Innovation, London Downing, T.., Butterfield, R.E., Edmonds, B., Built Environment , Arup.com, http://www.mckinsey.com/business- et al., 2003, Climate Change and the http://publications.arup.com/publications/c/cir Brundtland Commission, 1987, Our Common functions/digital-mckinsey/our-insights/four- Demand for Water. , Climate Change and the cular_economy_in_the_built_environment Future - Brundtland Report., United Nations, fundamentals-of-workplace-automation Demand for Water. Research Report, [Accessed on 15th February 2017] http://www.waterhealthpartnership.wales/site [Accessed on 15th February 2017] Stockholm Environment Institute Oxford Bennett, James E et al. , 29th April 2015, The splus/documents/1189/2015- Chartered Institution of Water and Office., pp. 201 future of life expectancy and life expectancy Lead%20in%20Water%20%28E%29v2.pdf Environmental Management (CIWEM), 2016, inequalities in England and Wales: Bayesian [Accessed on 15th February 2017] Water and environment skill shortage survey Welsh Water 2050 124

Drysdale, B., Wu, J. and Jenkins, N. , 2015, http://utilityweek.co.uk/news/market-view- https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blo Guwy, A.J., 2008, The occurrence of Flexible demand in the GB domestic brexit-and-the-water-sector/1262802#.V- g/politics-and-regulation-recipe-conflict-or- pharmaceuticals, personal care products, electricity sector in 2030, Applied Energy EwTcL2aUk [Accessed on 20th September constructive-partnership [Accessed on 13th endocrine disruptors and illicit drugs in 139, pp. 281–290 2016] February 2017] surface water in South Wales, UK., Water Duarte, R., Pinilla, V. and Serrano, A., 2014, Green, C., Williams, R., Kanda, R., et al., Institute of Customer Service, 2016, Institute Research 42, pp. 3498-3518 Looking backward to look forward: Water use 2013, Modeling of steroid oestrogen of Customer Service Kookana, R.S., Williams, M., Boxall, A.B.A., and economic growth from a long-term contamination in UK and South Australian Institute of Mechanical Engineers, January et al. , 2014, Potential ecological footprints of perspective., Applied Economics 46, pp 212- rivers predicts modest increases in 2016, Engineering the UK electricity gap, active pharmaceutical ingredients: An 224 concentrations in the future., Environmental Institute of Mechanical Engineers examination of risk factors in low-, middle- Science and Technology 47, pp. 7224–7232 and high-income countries. Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2017, Circular Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Economy, Guo, J., Sinclair, C.J., Selby, K. and Boxall, 2014, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Lapworth, D.J., Baran, N., Stuart, M.E. and https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/cir A.B.A., 2016, Toxicological and Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II Ward, R.S., 2012, Emerging organic cular-economy [Accessed on 15th February ecotoxicological risk-based prioritization of and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the contaminants in groundwater: A review of 2017] pharmaceuticals in the natural environment., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sources, fate and occurrence., Environmental Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2015, Towards Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 35, Pollution 163, pp. 287–303 pp. 1550–1559 International Programme on Chemical Safety a Circular Economy: Business rationale for , 2000, Disinfectants and disinfectant Levy, S. B. , 2001, Antibiotic resistance: an accelerated transition Hannah, D.M. and Garner, G., 2015, River byproducts, Environmental Health Criteria consequences of inaction, Clinical Infectious Fezzi, C., Harwood, A.R., Lovett, A.A. and water temperature in the United Kingdom: 216 Diseases 33, pp. 5124–5129 Changes over the 20th century and possible Bateman, I.J., 2015, The environmental Jones, J.A.A., Mountain, N.C., Pilling, C.G. MacNee, C., 2016, Viewpoint: the impact of impact of climate change adaptation on land changes over the 21st century. , Progress in the EU referendum on UK water industry, Physical Geography 39, pp. 68-92 and Holt, C.P., 2007, Implications of climate use and water quality. , Nature Climate change for river regimes in Wales: A http://www.waterbriefing.org/home/water- Change 5, pp. 255–260 Hay, H., 2017, The unbearable lightness of comparison of scenarios and models. issues/item/12387-impact-of-eu-referendum- Fox, C., McIntosh, B.S. and Jeffrey, P., 2009, being, pp. 99-101, Dolphin, www.dolphin.com on-uk-water-industry [Accessed on 20th [Accessed on 14th February 2017] Jorgensen, B., Graymore, M. and O’Toole, K. September 2016] Classifying households for water demand , 2009, Household water use behaviour: An forecasting using physical property Henriques, C., Garnett, K., Weatherhead, integrated model, Journal of Environmental McPherson, K., Marsh, T., Brown, M., 2007, characteristics, Land Use Policy 26, pp. 558– E.K., Lickorish, F.A., Forrow, D. and Delgado, Management 91, pp. 227–236 Foresight: Government Office for Science 568 J., 2015, The future water environment - Tackling Obesities: Future Choices , Karmali, S., Amato-Gauci, A., Ammon, A., Gough, R. , 2014, Catchment Influences on Using scenarios to explore the significant Government Office for Science, water management challenges in England McKee, M., 2008, Communicable disease in http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/22 Dissolved Organic Carbon Concentration and Europe, Health Systems and the Challenge Character; Implications for Potable Water and Wales to 2050., Science of the Total _11_07_modelling_fat.pdf [Accessed on 9th Environment 512–513, pp. 381–396 of Communicable Diseases. 5, pp. 75-94 , February 2017] Treatment and Trihalomethane Control, http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_fil Bangor University Thesis Institute for Government, 2016, Politics and e/0005/98393/E91946.pdf [Accessed on 9th Grady, J. and McRobb, L., 2016, Market regulation: recipe for conflict or constructive February 2017] partnership?, View: Brexit and the water sector, Kasprzyk-Hordern, B., Dinsdale, R.M. and Welsh Water 2050 125

Menon, R., Porteous, C. and Musa, H. , policy-an-practice.pdf [Accessed on 42855] world, New Scientist (Online), [Accessed on Germany, Ecological Economics 68, pp. 2010, The economic and environmental Natural Resources Wales, 2014, Welsh 9th February 2017] 1756–1769 impact of communal laundry spaces in high Outdoor Recreation Survey Pitt, M., 2008, Learning lessons from the Semenza, J.C. and Menne, B., 2009, Climate density housing in the UK. , The International OECD, 2012, Labour losing to capital: What 2007 floods change and infectious diseases in Europe., Journal of Environmental, Cultural, Economic The Lancet. Infectious Diseases 9, pp. 365- and Social Sustainability 6, pp. 191-202 explains the declining labour share?, Chapter Public Health Wales, 2nd August 2011, Flu 3, OECD Employment Outlook Pandemic 2009, 375 Ministry of Defence, 29th August 2014, http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgi Shepard + Wedderburn, 2016, Brexit Global Strategic Trends - Out to 2045 - Fifth OECD, 2017, General government spending, https://data.oecd.org/gga/general- d=457&pid=50294 [Accessed on 9th Analysis Bulletin: Water and Waste Water Edition, February 2017] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ government-spending.htm [Accessed on 9th StatisticsWales, 2015, Welsh Economy in global-strategic-trends-out-to-2045 [Accessed March 2017] Rickert B, Chorus I, Schmoll O., 2016, Numbers, Poverty Rate, Welsh Government, on 8th February 2016] Office for National Statistics Wales, 29th Protecting surface water for health, World http://gov.wales/statistics-and- Health Organisation research/economic- Morris, R. D., Audet, A. M., Angelillo, I. F., October 2015, 2014-based national population projections for Wales Rickert B, Chorus I, Schmoll O., 11th January indicators/poverty_wealth?lang=en Chalmers, T. C., and Mosteller, F. , 1992, [Accessed on 30th March 2017] Chlorination, chlorination by-products, and Office for National Statistics Wales, 2016, 2017, The Global Risks Report 2017 12th cancer: a meta-analysis, American Journal of Households below average income, Edition Stuart, M., Lapworth, D., Crane, E. and Hart, Public Health, 82(7), pp. 955–963 http://gov.wales/statistics-and- Rivera-Utrilla, J., Sanchez-Polo, M., Ferro- A., 2012, Review of risk from potential emerging contaminants in UK groundwater., Nasirabadi, S.P., Saljoughi, E. and Mousavi, research/households-below-average- Garcia, M.A., Prados-Joya, G. and Ocampo- income/?lang=en [Accessed on 31st March Perez, R., 2013, Pharmaceuticals as The Science of the Total Environment 416, S.M., 2016, Membrane processes used for pp. 1–21 removal of pharmaceuticals, hormones, 2017] emerging contaminants and their removal endocrine disruptors and their metabolites Ofwat, 2015, Water 2020: Regulatory from water. A review., Chemosphere 93, pp. The Institute of Customer Service, 2016, The from wastewaters: a review., Desalination framework for wholesale markets and the 1268–1287 Customer Knows: how employee and Water Treatment 2019 price review – summary Roberts, P.H. and Thomas, K. V., 2006, The engagement leads to greater customer satisfaction and loyalty Natural Resources Wales, 2016, The State of Oxera, 2016, Brexit: Potential Implications for occurrence of selected pharmaceuticals in Natural Resources Report (SoNaRR) 2016, the Water Sector in England and Wales. wastewater effluent and surface waters of the Trade Unions Congress, 2016, Under- https://naturalresources.wales/our-evidence- lower Tyne catchment., Science of the Total employment in Wales up more than 20 per Patel, A., Hampton, K. , 2011, Encouraging and-reports/the-state-of-natural-resources- Environment 356, pp. 143-153 cent since 2010, Consumption of Water in School and Child report-assessment-of-the-sustainable- https://www.tuc.org.uk/economic- Care Settings: Access, Challenges, and Rockefeller Foundation, 2017, What is Urban management-of-natural-resources/?lang=en issues/under-employment-wales-more-20- Strategies for Improvement, Am J Public Resilience?, [Accessed on 13th February 2017] cent-2010 [Accessed on 8th February 2016] Health , 101 (8): 1370-1379, http://www.100resilientcities.org/resilience Natural Resources Wales, 2013 , Welsh https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PM [Accessed on 22nd February 2017] UKCIP, December 2010, UKCP09 sea level Outdoor Recreation Survey Key Facts for C3134515/ [Accessed on 42855] Schilling, D., 25th March 2015, A Bold Future change estimates Policy and Practice, Peldszus, R., 25th January 2017, How Schleich, J. and Hillenbrand, T. , 2009, UKCIP, 2008, UK Climate Projections : The https://naturalresources.wales/media/4265/w Moore’s microchip law is still shaping our Determinants of residential water demand in climate of the UK and recent trends elsh-outdoor-recreation-survey-key-facts-for- Welsh Water 2050 126

Verweij, W., van der Wiele, J., van http://gov.wales/statistics-and- Hydrological Sciences Journal 54, pp. 101- March 2017] Moorselaar, I. and van der Grinten, E., 2010, research/national-population- 123 Yu, Y., Hubacek, K., Feng, K. and Guan, D., Impact of climate change on water quality in projections/?lang=en [Accessed on 3rd Williams, C., July 2014, Security in the cyber 2010, Assessing regional and global water the Netherlands. September 2016] supply chain: Is it achievable in a complex, footprints for the UK., Ecological Economics Water Health Partnership for Wales, 2015, Welsh Government, 2016b, Statistics for interconnected world?, Technovation, 69, pp. 1140–1147 Lead in Drinking Water, Wales, Welsh Health Survey 2015: Initial Volume 34, Issue 7, pp. 382-384 Zsamboky, M., Fernández-Bilbao, A., Smith, http://www.waterhealthpartnership.wales/site headline results, Willis, R.M., Stewart, R.A., Panuwatwanich, D., Knight, J., Allan, J, Joseph Rowntree splus/documents/1189/2015- http://gov.wales/docs/statistics/2016/160601- K., Williams, P.R. and Hollingsworth, A.L, Foundation, March 2011Impacts of climate Lead%20in%20Water%20%28E%29v2.pdf welsh-health-survey-2015-initial-headline- 2010, Quantifying the influence of change on disadvantages UK coastal [Accessed on 15th February 2017] results-en.pdf [Accessed on 9th February environmental and water conservation communities Watts, G., Battarbee, R.W., Bloomfield, J.P., 2017] attitudes on household end use water et al., 2015, Climate change and water in the Welsh Government, 2011, Climate Change consumption., Journal of Environmental UK - past changes and future prospects., Strategy for Wales, pp. 85 Management 92, pp. 1996–2009 Progress in Physical Geography 39, pp. 6-28 Welsh Government, 2016c, Well-being of World Economic Forum, 2017, The Global WEF, 2017, The Global Risks Report 2017, Future Generations (Wales) Act, Risks Report 2017, 12th Edition 12 Edition, Part 2: Social and Political http://gov.wales/topics/people-and- World Health Organisation, September 2016, Challenges, communities/people/future-generations- Antimicrobial resistance fact sheet. , http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GRR17_Repo act/?lang=en [Accessed on 22nd February http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs rt_web.pdf [Accessed on 15th February 2017] 2017] 194/en/ [Accessed on 9th February 2017] Welsh Economy Research Unit, 2013, The Welsh Water, 2009, Surface Water "World Health Organisation, 2003, Chlorine in Regional Economic Impact of Dŵr Cymru Management Strategy 2009 Drinking-water. Background document for Welsh Water Welsh Water, 2014a, Business Plan 2015- development of WHO Guidelines for Welsh Government, 2016a, StatsWales, 2020 Drinking-water Quality, 2nd ed. Vol.2. Health https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Busin Welsh Water, 2014b, Final Water Resources criteria and other supporting information. , ess-Economy-and-Labour-Market/People- Management Plan http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/d and-Work/Unemployment/ILO- wq/chlorine.pdf [Accessed on 9th February Unemployment/ilounemploymentrates-by- Welsh Water, 2015, Performance Report 2017]" 2014/15 welshlocalareas-year [Accessed on 8th World Health Organisation, 2010, Exposure February 2016] Welsh Water, 2016, Summary of PR19 To Lead: A major public health concern Phase 1 Research Welsh Government, 2015a, Water strategy WWT Online, 28th November 2016, Close- for Wales Whitehead, P.G., Wilby, R.L., Battarbee, Up: From Sludge to Bioresources, Welsh Government, 2015b, National R.W., Kernan, M. and Wade, A.J., 2009, A http://wwtonline.co.uk/features/close-up-from- Population Projections, review of the potential impacts of climate sludge-to-bioresources [Accessed on 20th change on surface water quality.,