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A 307-Year Tree-Ring Spei Reconstruction Indicates Modern Drought in Western Nepal Himalayas

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A 307-Year Tree-Ring Spei Reconstruction Indicates Modern Drought in Western Nepal Himalayas TREE-RING RESEARCH, Vol. 75(2), 2019, pp. 73–85 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3959/1536-1098-75.2.73 A 307-YEAR TREE-RING SPEI RECONSTRUCTION INDICATES MODERN DROUGHT IN WESTERN NEPAL HIMALAYAS SANJAYA BHANDARI1,2, NARAYAN PRASAD GAIRE3,4, SANTOSH K. SHAH5, JAMES H. SPEER2*, DINESH RAJ BHUJU1,3, and UDAY KUNWAR THAPA6 1Central Department of Environmental Science, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal 2Department of Earth and Environmental Systems, Indiana State University, Terre Haute, IN, USA 3Nepal Academy of Science and Technology, Lalitpur, Nepal 4Key Lab of Tropical Forest Ecology, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun, Mengla, Yunnan, PR China 5Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeo Sciences, 53-University Road, Lucknow, India 6Department of Geography, Environment and Society, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA ABSTRACT Western Nepal has experienced a severe drought in the past two decades, but observation records across Nepal are too short to place the recent drought in a longer context to understand the full range of natural variability in the climate system. In the present study we have collected tree core samples of Tsuga dumosa from two sites, Chhetti and Ranghadi, in the Api Nampa Conservation Area of the western Nepal Himalayas to understand drought variation for the past three centuries. We have developed a 357-year (AD 1657–2013) tree-ring chronology. The tree growth-climate response analysis revealed a stronger positive correlation with spring (March-May) standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI01) (r = 0.523, p < 0.01) than precipitation (r = 0.459, p < 0.01), self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) (r = 0.250, p < 0.01), or temperature (r = -0.486, p < 0.01). Stronger positive correlation with SPEI01 indicates moisture availability is the limiting factor for the growth of this species on these sites. Based on this growth-climate response we reconstructed spring SPEI from AD 1707 to 2013 for the region. The reconstruction showed several dry and wet episodes indicating no persistent climate trend within the past three centuries. The current drought is one of the four most severe in our 307-year record. Keywords: Nepal, SPEI, precipitation, dendroclimatology, dendrochronology, Himalaya, drought, Tsuga dumosa. INTRODUCTION Nepal show a rapid increase in temperature and fluctuation in precipitation patterns (Shrestha and The Himalayas extends over 2400 km from Aryal 2011; Shrestha et al. 2012). The complex to- east to west and across ecologically and geopoliti- pography of the mountain range and short dura- cally significant boundaries that are highly vulner- tion of these records requires proxy reconstructions able to the impacts of the rapidly occurring cli- to truly understand climate change dynamics in this mate change (IPCC 2014). The eastern Himalayas region of the world (Cook et al. 2003; Sigdel et al. are more influenced by summer monsoon whereas 2018a). Interestingly, the diverse topography and its western region is more influenced by the west- diverse climate of the Himalayas have bestowed erlies (Zurick et al. 2005). The eastern region of it with rich natural archives of climate including the Nepal Himalayas is relatively moist compared tree rings, ice cores, and lake sediments. Among all to the western region. Available temperature data these archives, tree rings have the highest resolution since 1970 and precipitation data since 1960 in with the annual accuracy necessary for comparison of monthly and annual meteorological data (Fritts *Corresponding author: [email protected] 1976; Speer 2010). Similarly, there is a decreasing Copyright © 2019 by the Tree-Ring Society 73 74 BHANDARI, GAIRE, SHAH, SPEER, BHUJU, and THAPA temperature gradient from north to south in the decades (Thapa et al. 2015). Gaire et al. (2017) re- Himalayas (Zurick et al. 2005) and decreasing pre- ported decreasing March-June precipitation in the cipitation from east to west across Nepal (Liang Rara National Park in recent decades. Recently- et al. 2014; Sigdel et al. 2018b). These gradients are reconstructed spring drought using tree-ring width reflected in the climate sensitivity of Himalayan tree of Picea smithiana showed intensified drought since species (Bhattacharyya and Shah 2009; Shah et al. 1980 in the central Himalayas (Panthi et al. 2017). 2014). Most of the studies in the Nepal Himalayas are Tree-ring based studies have been successfully still fragmentary and have narrow spatial coverage. carried out in the region including the western Therefore, it is necessary to increase the number of and eastern Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau. studies in the region to capture the local to regional In the western Himalayas, temperature (Yadav et variation in hydroclimate. al. 1997, 1999; Yadav and Singh 2002; Zafar et al. Previous studies (Bhattacharyya et al. 1992; 2015), precipitation (Singh and Yadav 2005; Yadav Cook et al. 2003) have confirmed the dendrocli- et al. 2014), and stream flow (Cook et al. 2013; matic potential of Tsuga dumosa (D. Don) Eicher Shah et al. 2013; Singh and Yadav 2013) of cen- (commonly called Himalayan hemlock) in Nepal. tennial to millennial scale have been reconstructed. T. dumosa is an evergreen tree that is found in Similarly, in the eastern Himalayas, temperature humid valleys, mountains slopes, and wetter areas. (Bhattacharyya and Chaudhary 2003; Krusic et al. In the Nepal Himalayas, it occurs in the temperate 2015; Borgaonkar et al. 2018), precipitation (Sano zone, from east to west at altitudes of 2100 to 3600 et al. 2013), and stream flow (Shah et al. 2014) m a.s.l. (Devkota 2013). The present study is an have been reconstructed. Considerable progress in attempt to build a long tree-ring chronology of dendroclimatic reconstructions has also been made T. dumosa to understand its growth response to in the northern Himalayas on the Tibetan Plateau climate and to infer the past drought history in (Bräuning 2001; Liu et al. 2006; Gou et al. 2007; the Api-Nampa Conservation Area. This study Huang and Zhang 2007; Liang et al. 2009; Zhang will help to strengthen the tree-ring chronology et al. 2014). These regional climate reconstructions network (Gaire et al. 2013; Thapa et al. 2017) of have shown spatiotemporal variations in tempera- Nepal. By comparing with other studies in the ture and precipitation, which are consistent with Nepal Himalayas, the response of multiple species regional, continental, and global patterns (Cook to climate from a region will help to understand et al. 2010; PAGES 2k Consortium 2013; Shi et al. climate signals in the Nepal Himalayas, which can 2015). capture influences of heterogeneous and complex Compared to other regions, very few dendro- geographies. climatic reconstructions are present in the Nepal Himalayas (Cook et al. 2003; Sano et al. 2005, METHODS 2012; Thapa et al. 2015; Gaire et al. 2017; Pan- Site Description and Sample Collection thi et al. 2017; Gaire et al. 2019). Cook et al. (2003) reconstructed temperature (February-June Tree cores of T. dumosa were collected and October-February) for all of Nepal using 32 from two forest patches, Chhetti (29°47.364N tree-ring chronologies. This study does not cap- and 81°00.845E) and Ranghadi (29°47.195Nand ture the regional and local climatic heterogeneity 80°58.890E) of Api Nampa Conservation Area in that exists because of the highly diverse topogra- the far western Nepal Himalayas (Figure 1). We phy of the nation. Sano et al. (2012) have reported cored the trees at breast height using an increment increasing aridity in the western Nepal Himalayas borer with normally two cores per tree (Fritts 1976; based on oxygen stable isotope analysis of Abies Speer 2010), but very steep slopes sometimes re- spectabilis. A reconstructed spring temperature us- quired that we could only take a single core per ing ring-width measurements of Picea smithiana tree. All together, 89 cores were collected from 49 revealed that there was no continuous tempera- trees. Samples were collected at 2700−2800 m a.s.l. ture change in the western Nepal Himalayas since on north-facing slopes in May 2014. T. dumosa was the mid-16th Century until warming in the recent found in the mixed forest of Abies spectabilis, Acer Drought Reconstruction in Western Nepal 75 Figure 1. Map showing location of sampling sites (Chhetti and Ranghadi) in Api-Nampa Conservation Area (ANCA) and meteoro- logical stations (Darchula and Jumla in Nepal and Mukteshwar in India). sp., Betula utilis, Rhododendron sp., Taxus baccata, the signal-free standardization process (Melvin and and Quercus semecarpifolia. Briffa 2008). This relatively stiff spline along with the signal-free technique improves the preservation Chronology Development of low-frequency signal in tree-ring chronologies. The collected tree core samples were brought The EPS value of 0.85 was taken as a threshold to to the lab and were air dried at room tempera- determine the adequacy of sample depth and corre- ture. After 2-3 days, samples were fixed on wooden sponding reliability of the chronology length in the core mounts with water-soluble glue with the cross- study (Wigley et al. 1984). sectional view facing up. Then the samples were sanded and polished with progressively finer grits Climatic Data of sandpaper (ANSI 120, 220, 320, 420, and 600 We collected climatic data from three me- grit, which range from 105 to 13µm) until the tree- teorological stations. The closest meteorological ring boundaries were clearly visible under a stereo- station is Darchula (29°51N, 80°34E, 1097 m zoom microscope with 10-40X magnification (Orvis a.s.l.), which is ca. 40 km west of the study site. The and Grissino-Mayer 2002). Ring widths were mea- available precipitation and temperature data for the sured using a LINTAB-5 measurement system at- station covered 26 and 40 years, respectively. The tached to a PC having the TSAPwin computer pro- next closest stations are Jumla (29°17N, 82°10E, gram (Rinn 1996).
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