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Factors Influencing the Development of Capital Market in Rwanda

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Factors Influencing the Development of Capital Market in Rwanda FACTORS INFLUENCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CAPITAL MARKET IN RWANDA. A CASE STUDY OF RWANDA STOCK EXCHANGE. A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Economics SUBMITTED BY: UMUHOZA CYUZUZO GISELE REG No: 215036810 JULY 2017 APPROVAL SHEET This thesis entitled Factors Influencing the Development of Capital Market in Rwanda. A Case Study of Rwanda Stock Exchange written and submitted by UMUHOZA CYUZUZO GISELE in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Economics, is hereby accepted and approved. _____________________ Supervisor _________________________________ Date The thesis is accepted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Business Administration. _______________________ ____________________ Member of the Jury Member of the Jury _______________ ________________ Date Date _________________________ Coordinator of Postgraduate Studies _______________ Date ii DECLARATION I, the undersigned UMUHOZA CYUZUZO Gisele a student at the University of Rwanda in Master of Science in Economics declare that the work presented in this thesis entitled “Factors influencing the development of Capital markets in Rwanda. A case study of Rwanda Stock Exchange” is mine, it has never been presented or submitted in any University or other higher learning institutions for similar award. Ms UMUHOZA CYUZUZO Gisele Signature: ………….. Date: ………………. iii DEDICATION To my Mum, MUKAGATARE Catherine. You are always in my heart iv CERTIFICATION It is certified that this research was completed at University of Rwanda, the data used are secondary data from The Rwanda Stock Exchange, The National Bank of Rwanda and the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda It is the work of UMUHOZA CYUZUZO Gisele, a student at University of Rwanda Masters of Science in Economics under my supervision. Supervisor: Professor Almas HESHMATI Date: ………………... Signature: ……………… v ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to express my gratitude to my family, friends and classmates for their support and encouragement, the Rwanda Stock Exchange for providing the data used and to my supervisor Proffessor Almas Heshmati for his instructive and thoughtful comments that made me work hard until I made it. vi Factors influencing the development of Capital markets in Rwanda. A case study of Rwanda Stock Exchange ABSTRACT This study investigates the factors influencing the development of the capital markets in Rwanda. The main objective is to study how macroeconomic variables affect the growth and development of the Rwandan Stock Exchange (RSE). We have also analysed the contribution of the RSE on the economic growth of Rwanda. To achieve the objectives of the study, quarterly secondary data from 2011 up to 2016 were used and both the two model were estimated using the Generalised Linear Method (GLM) method. The RSE performance has been measured by market capitalization. The macroeconomic variables used are the key repo rate, the inflation rate, and the money supply. The consumption has been used as conditioning variable. To analyse the second model, we have used the GDP as the dependent variable, while the market capitalization was used as the independent variable along with the capital formation and consumption as the conditioning variables. A 2SLS regression method was used to overcome the endogeneity problem. Our results have shown that among the four macroeconomic variables only the money supply has a statistically significant relationship with the market capitalization, as we found that an increase in money supply by one Frw will lead to an increase of market capitalization ratio by 0.003. The results have also shown that there is a positive relationship between the market capitalization and the GDP where an increase of market capitalization by one unit will increase the GDP by 0.19. Keywords: Capital market, economic growth, monetary policy, Investment, financial development 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION ..................................................................................................................... i DEDICATION ....................................................................................................................... iv CERTIFICATION ................................................................................................................. v ACKNOWLEDGMENT ....................................................................................................... vi ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................ 1 LIST OF ACRONYMES ....................................................................................................... 4 CHAPTER ONE: GENERAL INTRODUCTION .............................................................. 6 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 6 Problem statement .................................................................................................................... 8 Research Objectives ................................................................................................................. 9 1.4. Research Questions ......................................................................................................... 10 1.5. Hypothesis ....................................................................................................................... 10 1.6. Significance of the study ................................................................................................. 11 1.7. Scope and organization of the Study ............................................................................... 11 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................... 13 2.1. Key definitions ................................................................................................................ 13 2.1.1. Financial Market ........................................................................................................... 13 2.1.2. Stock Market ................................................................................................................ 13 2.1.3. Capital Market .............................................................................................................. 14 2 2.2. Empirical review ............................................................................................................. 17 2.2.1. Effect of capital markets on the economic growth ....................................................... 17 2.2.2. Factors affecting the stock market performance........................................................... 20 CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ................................................... 36 3.1. Research design and data source ..................................................................................... 36 3.2. Research variables ........................................................................................................... 36 3.3 Data processing and analysis ............................................................................................ 40 CHAPTER FOUR: DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION OF THE RESULTS .............................................................................................................................. 44 4.1. Empirical results .............................................................................................................. 44 4.2 Interpretation of the results ............................................................................................... 46 CHAPTER FIVE: MAJOR FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................................................................... 49 5.1. Major findings ................................................................................................................. 49 5.2. Summary and conclusion ................................................................................................ 50 5.3. Recommendations and suggestions for future data and research .................................... 53 5.4. Limitations ....................................................................................................................... 55 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... 55 APPENDIX ........................................................................................................................... 61 3 LIST OF TABLES Table 3 1. Correlations matrix of variables ............................................................................ 39 Table 3 2. Comparison of the models ..................................................................................... 42 Table 3 3. Parameter estimates with standard errors .............................................................. 45 4 LIST OF ACRONYMES BNR: Banque National du Rwanda CMA: Capital Market Authority CMAC: Rwanda Capital Market Advisory Council CDSC: Central Depository and Settlement Corporation CSD: Central Securities Depository CTL: Crystal Telecom Ltd CVL: Crystal Venture Ltd EDPRS: Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy FRW: Franc Rwandais GLM: Generalised Linear Method GDP: Gross Domestic Production IPO: Initial Public Offering KCB: Kenya Commercial Bank MENA: Middle East
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