IAI COMMENTARIES 21 | 19 - MARCH 2021 ISSN 2532-6570 © 2021 IAI 1 is toensurethewidestimmunisation of since the Second World War – the goal triggered theworst economic recession has led totheloss of 2.6million lives and current –which inone year is unprecedented. To put anendtothe of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns Despite current challenges, thespeed to its large-scale global distribution. testing of a in a laboratory transition from thedevelopment and It normally takes up toadecade future. are only likely toincreaseinthenear international systemandsuch trends established feature of thepost-COVID their population hasalready become an quantities of vaccinestoinoculate between states tosecurethenecessary ”. Growing competition be rememberedastheyear of “vaccine gear andequipment, 2021islikely to and acquirethenecessaryprotective the spreadof theSARS-CoV-2 virus diplomacy”, ascountries racedtotackle If 2020wastheyear of “mask Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. in this paper belong solely tothe author and do notnecessarily reflect theposition of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. Any view or opinion expressed Lorenza Errighi works at thePolicy Planning Unit, Secretariat-General, of theItalian by Lorenza Errighi COVID-19 andtheGlobal Vaccine Race 12 to18months. the world population inatimeframeof vaccine asaninstrument of external of Moscow’s efforts to employ the in thelate 1950s,andoffers evidence space raceagainsttheUnited States early achievements intheColdWar meant toevoke theSoviet Union’s vaccine, the“Sputnik V”, is purposely Indeed, thenamegiven toRussia’s across thirdcountries. developmental and governance models with thepromotion of competing between powers, often associated as asignificant tool for competition distribution, thevaccine hasemerged in laboratories, totheirpurchase and implications. From theirexperimentation and alliances with relevant geopolitical emerging foreign policy partnerships the other,meanstosupport existingand and technological supremacy and,on symbolise, on theone hand,scientific as instruments of , as they In thiscontext, COVID vaccinesemerge COVID-19 and the Global Vaccine Race

influence. China, meanwhile, quickly The United States, currently the main sought to develop a global vaccine country for the production of COVID distribution strategy from the onset in the world, has benefited of the crisis, involving key partners in from “”, a public- the framework of the Belt and Road private initiative launched in May Initiative and beyond. 2020 by the Trump administration, which provided over 12 billion dollars Against this backdrop, and with funding for research and development 2

© 2021 IAI growing competition over the vaccine of a vaccine. Meanwhile in China, the also now present in Europe and between state-owned conglomerate Sinopharm the EU and the UK, it is clear that three has been one of the major actors behind segments of geopolitical competition the Chinese vaccine development are emerging in the current global race. In the Russian Federation, the vaccine race. sovereign Russian Direct Investment Fund supported the development in The race to develop record time of a vaccine produced by the Gamaleya Institute, later named ISSN 2532-6570 In the “race to develop”, countries try to “Sputnik V”. establish themselves as world powers with their capacity to develop a locally Other important tools to mobilise produced vaccine, a sign of scientific resources for vaccine development and technological superiority and have been Advance Purchase of strategic autonomy. The current Agreements, which are at the core of vaccine development race has been the European Vaccine Strategy and facilitated by massive government cover part of the upfront costs faced by financing schemes and incentives producers in exchange for the right to through market mechanisms. buy a given amount of doses within an agreed timeframe.3 There are 79 vaccines in clinical trials, 22 in the final trial or approval stage, By leveraging the phenomenon while 13 have been approved for use of global outsourcing, the “race to in at least one country. Among those develop” also includes the ability of in distribution, four were developed nations to establish themselves as in Europe and the United States regional or international production (/BioNTech, Moderna, Oxford/ hubs. This is the case of , which AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson), aims to become “the pharmacy of the two in Russia (Sputnik V and FBRI), world”, both through the development five in China (SinoVac, CanSino, two by Sinopharm and ZF2001) and two in York Times website, https://nyti.ms/2MHNdRL. India (Covishield, the locally produced 2 Dan Diamond, “The Crash Landing of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, and ‘Operation Warp Speed’”, in Politico, 17 January ).1 2021, https://politi.co/35P9mHx. 3 European Commission, Coronavirus: Commission Unveils EU Vaccines Strategy, 17 1 Carl Zimmer, Jonathan Corum and Sui-Lee June 2020, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/ Wee, “Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker”, in The New presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1103. IAI COMMENTARIES 21 | 19 - MARCH 2021 21 | 19 - MARCH IAI COMMENTARIES

2 COVID-19 and the Global Vaccine Race

of indigenous vaccines and licensing and on the other, at accelerating the agreements with major pharmaceutical re-launch of national economies, companies.4 providing a competitive advantage in the short term to countries with the Joint vaccine development activities highest numbers of vaccinations per are also emerging through south- capita. However, the purchase of large south cooperation. In addition to the quantities of vaccines does not always relationships put in place between correspond to their rapid deployment

© 2021 IAI major G20 members from the emerging on a large scale due to national world (China, Russia and India), there regulatory barriers. are also partnerships involving non- traditional actors. For instance, the When it comes to COVID vaccination Iranian and the Finlay campaigns, a dilemma emerges Vaccine Institute of Cuba are together between the national and the global experimenting the “Soberana 2” dimension, between short and medium vaccine.5 to long-term objectives. Although the pursuit of a rapid national vaccination ISSN 2532-6570 The race to buy campaign may lead to an economic revival in the short term, on a global When it comes to the acquisition of the scale, the pandemic can be contained vaccine, or the “race to buy”, countries and the spread of new variants curbed and regional players attempt to only through an equitable access to guarantee the greatest possible supply immunisation campaigns, which of vaccines for their own population, in have been defined by the UN General some cases at the detriment of equitable Assembly as a “global public good”.6 distribution mechanisms put in place multilaterally. The COVAX Facility, led by GAVI, CEPI, the World Health Organisation and with Given the limited amount of vaccines UNICEF as a distribution partner, is one currently available in the global market of the cornerstones of the multilateral – and also considering the delays in response to the pandemic and 186 deliveries by some pharmaceutical countries are part of the initiative. companies in the West – international However, the minimum coverage competition arises for the purchase of goal set by COVAX (20 per cent of the as many doses as possible. The “race population) is currently insufficient to to buy” is aimed, on the one hand, at achieve global herd immunity, which containing the health emergency by instead would require a vaccination achieving so-called “herd immunity”, coverage estimated at between 60 and 80 per cent of the population.7 On

4 Harsh V. Pant and Aarshi Tirkey, “India’s Vaccine Diplomacy”, in Foreign Policy, 22 6 UN General Assembly, Comprehensive and January 2021, https://bit.ly/2LWyQft. Coordinated Response to the Coronavirus Disease 5 Maziyar Ghiabi, “Vaccine Alliance: How Cuba (COVID-19) Pandemic (A/74/L.92), 10 September and Iran Are Joining Forces to Battle Covid-19”, 2020, point 13, https://undocs.org/A/74/L.92. in Middle East Eye, 21 January 2021, https:// 7 Donald G. McNeil Jr., “How Much Herd www.middleeasteye.net/node/198216. Immunity Is Enough?”, in The New York Times, IAI COMMENTARIES 21 | 19 - MARCH 2021 21 | 19 - MARCH IAI COMMENTARIES

3 COVID-19 and the Global Vaccine Race

the top of this, out of the almost 14.9 In the “race to distribute” towards billion doses reserved internationally third countries, the COVID vaccine (6.3 million of which are still under becomes an instrument of projection negotiation), COVAX has only managed of influence, generating geopolitical to purchase 1.1 billion doses, compared competition between global and to the 4.6 billion secured by high- regional actors in traditional and income nations.8 emerging areas of interest.

© 2021 IAI Several countries have therefore With relatively less ambitious internal resorted to alternative vaccine vaccination objectives than in the procurement mechanisms, also at a West, China, Russia and India are the regional level. Among these, the EU great protagonists of this first stage purchasing mechanism stands out as of “vaccine diplomacy”, leveraging on the most advanced form of regional their own production capabilities, with cooperation for vaccine procurement. an early strategy centred on a strong In addition, the African Union, under role of the state and the creation of the South African Chairmanship, has international testing and production ISSN 2532-6570 set up a task force for the acquisition of alliances.10 vaccines across the continent, securing the supply of 670 million doses to be As far as the West is concerned, the shared among member states on an COVAX Facility is at the heart of every equitable basis.9 initiative for the joint distribution of vaccines to third countries. At the G7 The race to distribute Summit held on 19 February 2021, the leaders of the bloc decided to accelerate In light of the current supply and efforts to promote an equitable access demand mismatch of COVID vaccines, to vaccines on a global scale, pledging especially in low and lower middle- 7.5 billion dollars to support vaccination income countries with no autonomous campaigns across countries in need. development capacity and limited With the change of leadership in purchasing power, the international Washington, the US joined COVAX distribution of the vaccine has become and announced a contribution of 4 a tool of soft power in support of billion dollars to the Facility. The EU emerging and traditional foreign policy has also doubled its support for COVAX, partnerships. announcing a contribution of an additional billion euro.11

24 December 2020, http://nyti.ms/3aFtE9S. 8 Launch and Scale Speedometer, COVID-19: Vaccine Procurement, updated 19 March 2021, https://launchandscalefaster.org/covid-19/ 10 Michael Safi, “Vaccine Diplomacy: West vaccineprocurement. Falling Behind in Race for Influence”, in The 9 “African Union Secures Additional 400 Million Guardian, 19 February 2021, https://www. Vaccine Doses”, in AfricaNews, 28 January theguardian.com/p/g88cp. 2021, https://www.africanews.com/2021/01/28/ 11 Joint Statement of G7 Leaders, 19 african-union-secures-additional-400- February 2021, http://www.g7.utoronto.ca/ million-vaccine-doses. summit/2021cornwall/210219-leaders.html. IAI COMMENTARIES 21 | 19 - MARCH 2021 21 | 19 - MARCH IAI COMMENTARIES

4 COVID-19 and the Global Vaccine Race

Furthermore, in line with the “Team If the priority in the short term Europe” approach, the Commission remains the achievement of adequate announced the forthcoming vaccination coverage at the national establishment of a common level, Italy and the EU can adopt a mechanism for the external sharing of medium to long-term strategy with some excess doses, paying particular regards to the international distribution attention to the Western Balkans, its of the vaccine through a multi-level southern and eastern neighbourhood as and integrated approach. 12

© 2021 IAI well as Sub-Saharan Africa. However, due to delays in deliveries and vaccine First of all, taking advantage of administration campaigns in the West, the opportunities offered by Italy’s a longer time horizon may be required current G20 Presidency and the for such initiatives to unfold. “Global Health Summit” to be hosted in May, multilateral initiatives aimed What role for Italy and the EU in at containing the pandemic should vaccine diplomacy? continue to be encouraged. In particular, an equitable and rapid access ISSN 2532-6570 It is becoming progressively evident to the vaccine around the world can be that in order to put an end to the current ensured by continuing to strengthen global pandemic it is not only necessary the COVAX Facility, in support of to develop and produce the highest vaccination campaigns across low and possible number of vaccines, but also lower middle-income countries. to ensure the widest immunisation of the global population. With the spread At the EU level, by leveraging the “Team of variants of COVID-19, that in some Europe” approach and the European cases may threaten the effectiveness of Vaccine Strategy, the Commission’s vaccines developed so far, the vaccine proposal to establish an external race also becomes a race against time, sharing mechanism for a European which requires a global response. vaccine should continue to be supported, allowing part of the surplus Considering the vaccine as a global doses acquired to be shared with other common good is both an ethical struggling states, also in the framework and health related issue, with of strategic bi-regional partnerships important economic and geopolitical in Africa, Asia and . implications. In line with their values, Moreover, the Atlantic Alliance Italy and the EU should be driven by the could favour the distribution and objective to ensure the immunisation of administration of vaccines in countries countries in need, regardless of political in need where NATO operates. More affiliations or short-term interests. in general, personnel of multilateral and regional peacekeeping missions deployed abroad could actively contribute to vaccine distribution 12 European Commission, A United Front to campaigns. Beat COVID-19 (COM/2021/35), 19 January 2021, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ TXT/?uri=CELEX:52021DC0035. IAI COMMENTARIES 21 | 19 - MARCH 2021 21 | 19 - MARCH IAI COMMENTARIES

5 COVID-19 and the Global Vaccine Race

Beyond donations and financing Yet, the pandemic can only be defeated mechanisms to facilitate access through inclusive international to vaccines, Italian and EU soft cooperation, ensuring that no country power could also be deployed to is left behind in vaccination campaigns. strengthen international cooperation programmes in the healthcare sector This implies a difficult choice or aimed at supporting countries left balancing between strategic autonomy, behind in vaccination campaigns, and thus the requirement to prioritise

© 2021 IAI including through capacity-building national immunisations across initiatives. Such programmes should Europe before beginning to share also proactively involve civil society COVID vaccines internationally, and actors. The private sector could also the growing realisation that national play an important role in supporting inoculations will be insufficient in vaccination campaigns, by offering the long-term should the rest of the solutions to strengthen vaccine storage world be left behind in the vaccination and distribution chains. process. EU support for the COVAX initiative represents one element of this ISSN 2532-6570 In the current vaccine race, the balancing, but this requires a further accelerated global competition scaling up of international efforts in between the United States and Europe the medium to long term, given the on one side and China and Russia limited coverage capacity of the Facility on the other, becomes increasingly at present. evident. Moreover, India progressively emerges as a major geopolitical actor With these thoughts in mind, further to counter Chinese influence in its multilateral efforts would need to be neighbourhood but also to establish promoted by the EU and Italy, while also itself as a global leader in the ongoing seeking to complement these through vaccine development and distribution other regional and bilateral initiatives in race. With regard to the European an effort to inoculate the most amount continent, and in light of Brexit, the of people in the least amount of time. United Kingdom has demonstrated This, ultimately, is the only avenue out autonomous capacity to rapidly develop of the crisis. Italy and the EU now have a vaccine and deploy effective internal a chance to actively contribute to this immunisation campaigns, while, for objective by deploying their soft power the EU, the vaccine race is increasingly and support for multilateral solutions becoming an important arena to to this global emergency. demonstrate its growing emphasis on strategic autonomy. 19 March 2021 While some examples of positive collaboration among developing countries emerge, North-South divides are above all affecting low-income countries with no local production capacity and limited purchasing power. IAI COMMENTARIES 21 | 19 - MARCH 2021 21 | 19 - MARCH IAI COMMENTARIES

6 COVID-19 and the Global Vaccine Race

Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) The Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) is a private, independent non-profit think tank, founded in 1965 on the initiative of Altiero Spinelli. IAI seeks to promote awareness of international politics and to contribute to the advancement of European integration and multilateral cooperation. Its focus embraces topics of strategic relevance such as European integration, security and defence, international economics and global governance, energy, climate and Italian foreign policy; as well as the dynamics of cooperation and conflict in key geographical regions such as the Mediterranean and Middle East, Asia, Eurasia, Africa and © 2021 IAI the Americas. IAI publishes an English-language quarterly (The International Spectator), an online webzine (Affarinternazionali), three book series (Global Politics and Security, Quaderni IAI and IAI Research Studies) and some papers’ series related to IAI research projects (Documenti IAI, IAI Papers, etc.).

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