COVID-19 and the Global Vaccine Race © 2021 IAI by Lorenza Errighi If 2020 was the year of “mask the world population in a timeframe of diplomacy”, as countries raced to tackle 12 to 18 months. ISSN 2532-6570 the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and acquire the necessary protective In this context, COVID vaccines emerge gear and equipment, 2021 is likely to as instruments of soft power, as they be remembered as the year of “vaccine symbolise, on the one hand, scientific diplomacy”. Growing competition and technological supremacy and, on between states to secure the necessary the other, means to support existing and quantities of vaccines to inoculate emerging foreign policy partnerships their population has already become an and alliances with relevant geopolitical established feature of the post-COVID implications. From their experimentation international system and such trends in laboratories, to their purchase and are only likely to increase in the near distribution, the vaccine has emerged future. as a significant tool for competition between powers, often associated It normally takes up to a decade to with the promotion of competing transition from the development and developmental and governance models testing of a vaccine in a laboratory across third countries. to its large-scale global distribution. Despite current challenges, the speed Indeed, the name given to Russia’s of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns vaccine, the “Sputnik V”, is purposely is unprecedented. To put an end to the meant to evoke the Soviet Union’s current pandemic – which in one year early achievements in the Cold War has led to the loss of 2.6 million lives and space race against the United States triggered the worst economic recession in the late 1950s, and offers evidence since the Second World War – the goal of Moscow’s efforts to employ the is to ensure the widest immunisation of vaccine as an instrument of external Lorenza Errighi works at the Policy Planning Unit, Secretariat-General, of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. Any view or opinion expressed IAI COMMENTARIES 21 | 19 - MARCH 2021 21 | 19 - MARCH IAI COMMENTARIES in this paper belong solely to the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. 1 COVID-19 and the Global Vaccine Race influence. China, meanwhile, quickly The United States, currently the main sought to develop a global vaccine country for the production of COVID distribution strategy from the onset vaccines in the world, has benefited of the crisis, involving key partners in from “Operation Warp Speed”, a public- the framework of the Belt and Road private initiative launched in May Initiative and beyond. 2020 by the Trump administration, which provided over 12 billion dollars Against this backdrop, and with funding for research and development 2 © 2021 IAI growing competition over the vaccine of a vaccine. Meanwhile in China, the also now present in Europe and between state-owned conglomerate Sinopharm the EU and the UK, it is clear that three has been one of the major actors behind segments of geopolitical competition the Chinese vaccine development are emerging in the current global race. In the Russian Federation, the vaccine race. sovereign Russian Direct Investment Fund supported the development in The race to develop record time of a vaccine produced by the Gamaleya Institute, later named ISSN 2532-6570 In the “race to develop”, countries try to “Sputnik V”. establish themselves as world powers with their capacity to develop a locally Other important tools to mobilise produced vaccine, a sign of scientific resources for vaccine development and technological superiority and have been Advance Purchase of strategic autonomy. The current Agreements, which are at the core of vaccine development race has been the European Vaccine Strategy and facilitated by massive government cover part of the upfront costs faced by financing schemes and incentives producers in exchange for the right to through market mechanisms. buy a given amount of doses within an agreed timeframe.3 There are 79 vaccines in clinical trials, 22 in the final trial or approval stage, By leveraging the phenomenon while 13 have been approved for use of global outsourcing, the “race to in at least one country. Among those develop” also includes the ability of in distribution, four were developed nations to establish themselves as in Europe and the United States regional or international production (Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, Oxford/ hubs. This is the case of India, which AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson), aims to become “the pharmacy of the two in Russia (Sputnik V and FBRI), world”, both through the development five in China (SinoVac, CanSino, two by Sinopharm and ZF2001) and two in York Times website, https://nyti.ms/2MHNdRL. India (Covishield, the locally produced 2 Dan Diamond, “The Crash Landing of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, and ‘Operation Warp Speed’”, in Politico, 17 January Covaxin).1 2021, https://politi.co/35P9mHx. 3 European Commission, Coronavirus: Commission Unveils EU Vaccines Strategy, 17 1 Carl Zimmer, Jonathan Corum and Sui-Lee June 2020, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/ Wee, “Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker”, in The New presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1103. IAI COMMENTARIES 21 | 19 - MARCH 2021 21 | 19 - MARCH IAI COMMENTARIES 2 COVID-19 and the Global Vaccine Race of indigenous vaccines and licensing and on the other, at accelerating the agreements with major pharmaceutical re-launch of national economies, companies.4 providing a competitive advantage in the short term to countries with the Joint vaccine development activities highest numbers of vaccinations per are also emerging through south- capita. However, the purchase of large south cooperation. In addition to the quantities of vaccines does not always relationships put in place between correspond to their rapid deployment © 2021 IAI major G20 members from the emerging on a large scale due to national world (China, Russia and India), there regulatory barriers. are also partnerships involving non- traditional actors. For instance, the When it comes to COVID vaccination Iranian Pasteur Institute and the Finlay campaigns, a dilemma emerges Vaccine Institute of Cuba are together between the national and the global experimenting the “Soberana 2” dimension, between short and medium vaccine.5 to long-term objectives. Although the pursuit of a rapid national vaccination ISSN 2532-6570 The race to buy campaign may lead to an economic revival in the short term, on a global When it comes to the acquisition of the scale, the pandemic can be contained vaccine, or the “race to buy”, countries and the spread of new variants curbed and regional players attempt to only through an equitable access to guarantee the greatest possible supply immunisation campaigns, which of vaccines for their own population, in have been defined by the UN General some cases at the detriment of equitable Assembly as a “global public good”.6 distribution mechanisms put in place multilaterally. The COVAX Facility, led by GAVI, CEPI, the World Health Organisation and with Given the limited amount of vaccines UNICEF as a distribution partner, is one currently available in the global market of the cornerstones of the multilateral – and also considering the delays in response to the pandemic and 186 deliveries by some pharmaceutical countries are part of the initiative. companies in the West – international However, the minimum coverage competition arises for the purchase of goal set by COVAX (20 per cent of the as many doses as possible. The “race population) is currently insufficient to to buy” is aimed, on the one hand, at achieve global herd immunity, which containing the health emergency by instead would require a vaccination achieving so-called “herd immunity”, coverage estimated at between 60 and 80 per cent of the population.7 On 4 Harsh V. Pant and Aarshi Tirkey, “India’s Vaccine Diplomacy”, in Foreign Policy, 22 6 UN General Assembly, Comprehensive and January 2021, https://bit.ly/2LWyQft. Coordinated Response to the Coronavirus Disease 5 Maziyar Ghiabi, “Vaccine Alliance: How Cuba (COVID-19) Pandemic (A/74/L.92), 10 September and Iran Are Joining Forces to Battle Covid-19”, 2020, point 13, https://undocs.org/A/74/L.92. in Middle East Eye, 21 January 2021, https:// 7 Donald G. McNeil Jr., “How Much Herd www.middleeasteye.net/node/198216. Immunity Is Enough?”, in The New York Times, IAI COMMENTARIES 21 | 19 - MARCH 2021 21 | 19 - MARCH IAI COMMENTARIES 3 COVID-19 and the Global Vaccine Race the top of this, out of the almost 14.9 In the “race to distribute” towards billion doses reserved internationally third countries, the COVID vaccine (6.3 million of which are still under becomes an instrument of projection negotiation), COVAX has only managed of influence, generating geopolitical to purchase 1.1 billion doses, compared competition between global and to the 4.6 billion secured by high- regional actors in traditional and income nations.8 emerging areas of interest. © 2021 IAI Several countries have therefore With relatively less ambitious internal resorted to alternative vaccine vaccination objectives than in the procurement mechanisms, also at a West, China, Russia and India are the regional level. Among these, the EU great protagonists of this first stage purchasing mechanism stands out as of “vaccine diplomacy”, leveraging on the most advanced form of regional their own production capabilities, with cooperation for vaccine procurement. an early strategy centred on a strong In addition, the African Union, under role of the state and the creation of the South African Chairmanship, has international testing and production ISSN 2532-6570 set up a task force for the acquisition of alliances.10 vaccines across the continent, securing the supply of 670 million doses to be As far as the West is concerned, the shared among member states on an COVAX Facility is at the heart of every equitable basis.9 initiative for the joint distribution of vaccines to third countries.