From Scientific Information on Climate Change to Economic Analysis for Adaptation of Infrastructure : the Case Study of SNCF Vivian Depoues

From scientific information on climate change to economic analysis for adaptation of infrastructure : the case study of SNCF Vivian Depoues

To cite this version:

Vivian Depoues. From scientific information on climate change to economic analysis for adaptation of infrastructure : the case study of SNCF. Economics and Finance. Université Paris Saclay (COmUE), 2019. English. NNT : 2019SACLV015. tel-02083989

HAL Id: tel-02083989 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-02083989 Submitted on 29 Mar 2019

HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés.

From scientific information on climate change to economic analysis for adaptation of infrastructure:

2019SACLV015 the case study of SNCF :

NNT Thèse de doctorat de l'Université Paris-Saclay préparée à l’Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines

École doctorale n° 578 Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société ED SHS Spécialité de doctorat : Sciences économiques

Thèse présentée et soutenue à GUYANCOURT, le 05 Février 2019, par

Vivian Dépoues

Composition du Jury :

Ángel Aparicio Professor, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (Escuela T.S) Président du jury Anders Blok Associate Professor, University of Copenhagen (Sociologisk Institut) Rapporteur Arnaud Diemer Maître de Conférences (HDR), Université Clermont Auvergne (CERDI) Rapporteur Franck Lecocq Professeur, AgroParistech (CIRED) Examinateur Jean-Paul Vanderlinden Professeur, Université Versailles-Saint-Quentin (CEARC), Co-Directeur de thèse Tommaso Venturini Advance research fellow, ENS Lyon (INRIA/Ixxi) Co-Directeur de thèse Aude Bodiguel Economiste, ADEME Invitée Benoît Leguet Economiste, Directeur Général, I4CE Invité

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Issue d’un partenariat entre des acteurs de l’adaptation au changement climatique (I4CE, ADEME, CEARC) et SNCF, cette thèse se propose de décrire et d’analyser HO#UHVW !BE!\È!BE__E! W]K=VM^=_MWV!J=M_!DE!T=!BWVV=M^^=VBE!DM^[WVMATE!^`]!TE^!MU[=B_^!D`!BL=VKEUEV_!BTMU=_M\È!E_! BE!\È!BE__E!BWVV=M^^=VBE!T`M!J=M_u!%TTE! BLE]BLE!>! BWV_]MAÈ]!>!VW_]E!BWU[]GLEV^MWV!DE!T=! U=VMF]E!DWV_!TE^!K]=VDE^!W]K=VM^=_MWV^!Ê!_]=V^JW]UEV_!J=BE!=`!BL=VKEUEV_!KTWA=T!DGB]M_!E_! annoncé. La thèse s’articule en six chapitres dont trois o V_!DWVVG!TME`!>!DE^!=]_MBTE^!^WÙM^!>! DE^!]EdÈ^!>!BWUM_G!DE!TEB_`]Eu!!

-E! []EUME]! BL=[M_]E! ]EdMEV_! ^`]! TE! UWV_=KE! D`! []WRE_! T`MyUHUEr! T=! [W^_`]E! DE! ]EBLE]BLE! DG[TWgGE!E_!Ê^!JWVDEUEV_^!_LGW]M\È^!{^WBMWTWKME!DE!T=!_]=D`B_MWVr!_LGW]ME!=VB]GE|!>![=]_M]! DE^\ÈT^!VW`^!=dWV^!_]=d=MTTG![EVD=V_!_]WM^!=Vû!*T!DG_=MTTE!VW_]E!MV_EV_MWV!MVM_M=TE!DE!_E^_E]! l’apport de ce type d’approches pour fluidifier l’interface entre production scientifique sur les impacts et l’adaptation au changement climatique et les enjeux opérationnels d’un acteur ^WBMWGBWVWUM\È!BWUUE!5/#'u!#E__E![W^_`]E!dMÊ!>!T=!JWM^!>![]EVD]E![TEMVEUEV_!EV!BWU[_E! TE!UWVDE!DE^!=B_E`]^!BWVVEB_G^!EV_]E!E`f!E_!UWAMTM^=V_!`VE!DMdE]^M_G!DE!^=dWM]^!E_!>!DM=TWKÈ]! avec les heuristiques d’adaptation, notamment écono UM\È^r![]W[W^GE^!D=V^!T=!TM__G]=_`]Eu!!

-E! DE`fMFUE! BL=[M_]E! B=]=B_G]MÊ! TE! DGB=T=KE! []GÊV_! D=V^! T=! TM__G]=_`]E! EV_]E! DE^! BWVV=M^^=VBE^! ^`]! TE! BL=VKEUEV_! BTMU=_M\È! [W_EV_METTEUEV_! _]F^! MU[=B_=V_E^! [W`]! TE^! K]=VD^!]GÊ=`f!E_!T=!U=VMF]E!DWV_!BE^!DE]VME]^!^ ’adaptent. Il décrit une science pensée pour l’adaptation, la prise de décision, l’anticipation voire la transformation et une adaptation des MVJ]=^_]`B_`]E^!>![EMVE!GUE]KEV_Er![T`^!dWTWV_ME]^!]G=B_MdEr![]WK]E^^MdE!E_!MVB]GUEV_=TEu!*T! interroge l’intérêt, T=![E]_MVEVBE!E_!TE^![W^^MAMTM_G^!DE!]GD`M]E!E_!DG[=^Ê]!BE!DGB=T=KEu ##

-E!_]WM^MFUE!BL=[M_]E!MV_]WD`M_!TE!B=^!DE!5/#'r!>!T=!JWM^!_]F^![=]_MB`TME]!E_!_]F^![=]T=V_!t!5/#'! E^_!`V!=B_E`]!GBWVWUM\È!DE![T`^!EV![T`^!v!BWUUE!TE^!=`_]E^!w!E_!_W`RW`]^!^[GBMJM\Èr!=B_E`]! de l’aménagement du territoire et reflet de la société française. Ce chapitre analyse les tentatives menées en interne pour permettre à l’organisation de se saisir explicitement de la question de l’adaptation. Il détaille la variété, les motivations E_!TE^!TMUM_E^!DE^!DGU=]BLE^! institutionnelles et des initiatives d’experts tournées vers la résilience. Cette première analyse UE_! EV! GdMDEVBE! `VE! []WATGU=_M^=_MWV! –! =`! ÊV^! DE! T=! ^WBMWTWKME! DE! T=! _]=D`B_MWV! –! \`M!

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C’est pourquoi, nous avons souhaité nous déplacer pour voir comment les acteurs plus EV! []MÊ!=dEB!TE!_E]]=MV![E]BEd=MEV_!E_!DGB]Md=MEV_!TE`]^!]ET=_MWV^!=`!BTMU=_!E_!>!Ê^!BL=VKEUEV_^! perçus ou anticipés. Cela a donné lieu à une étude de cas approfondie sur l’exploitation JE]]WdM=M]E!D=V^!T=!]GKMWV!DE!.WV_[ETTME]!DWV_!]EVD!BWU[_E!TE!\`=_]MFUE!BL=[M_]Eu!#E!BL=[M_]E! présente ainsi comment, du temps long de la conception d’une LGV jusqu’à la gestion de la BM]B`T=_MWV!=`!\`W_MDMEVr!le climat est un réel enjeu pour le ferroviaire qui s’adapte déjà. Bien ]GET![W`]!TE^!=B_E`]^r!TE!BL=VKEUEV_!BTMU=_M\È!E^_!KG]G!^`]!`V!UWDE!]G=B_MJ!E_!MVB]GUEV_=T! –! l’adaptation devant en permanence se négocier avec des héritages lourds et d’autres dynamiques d’évolution. Ces analyses nous ont permis de compléter un portrait de l’adaptation « !telle qu’elle se fait !w!E_!_E lle qu’elle s’articule avec les dynamiques structurantes du système ferroviaire et notamment les efforts continus de rationalisation et d’optimisation. !

Dans un cinquième chapitre nous partageons les résultats d’un EP>WUkFTPWR ! W]K=VM^G! EV! WB_WA]E!éåçì!>!.WV tpellier pour étudier les questions qui émergent lorsque l’on met l’accent ^`]!DE^!B=]=B_G]M^_M\È^!D`!BL=VKEUEV_!BTMU=_M\È! –!TE^!Ef_]HUE^!E_!T=!d=]M=AMTM_G! –!\`M!VW`^! [=]=M^^=MEV_!UWMV^!AMEV!DM^B`_GEû!0V!dWM_!=TW]^!\È!TE!^`RE_!=!`VE!]GETTE!B=[=BM_G!>!MV_E]]WKE]! TE^!U=VMF]E^!DE!J=M]Er!TE^!DWB_]MVE^!E_!TE^!BLWMf!^_]=_GKM\Èû!*T![WÊ!BE[EVD=V_!DE^!\È^_MWV^! DE!KW`dE]V=VBE!\`M!DGAW]DEV_!T=]KEUEV_! SNCF. Cette manière d’amener le sujet révèle la diversité des postures d’adaptation possibles qui peuvent s’avérer différentes d’une entité à l’autre, y compris au sein même du groupe SNCF. !

-E!BL=[M_]E!BWVBT`^MJ!s’efforce de récolter les fruits de cette approche. En quoi la description HO# UHVW ! permet de répondre à l’intention initiale de « !UME`f!w! J=M]E! []EVD]E! EV! BWU[_E! T=! BWVV=M^^=VBE!^`]!DE^!GdWT`_MWV^!J`_`]E^!D=V^!TE^!DGBM^MWV^![]GÊV_E^r!DE!J=M]E!EfM^_E]!BE!TWVKy terme dans la stratégie d’une organisation. Il discute notamment de la complémentarité des manières de formuler les enjeux de l’adaptation pour ce type d’acteurs, en tenant compte de T=! DMdE]^M_G! DE^! UWDE^! DE! ]=_MWV=TM_G^! []GÊV_E s. L’analyse économique y apparaît alors comme une forme parmi d’autres, intéressante à mobiliser avant tout comme une science de T=! KW`dE]V=VBE! y! [W`]! DG[TWgE]! TE^! BWV^G\ÈVBE^! [W^^MATE^! D`! BL=VKEUEV_! BTMU=_M\Èr! explorer les pistes et ouvrir des espaces où penser l’adaptation. ! ì! ! *DNO&JA&9;MJITHN&

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éê! ! 6LE!SEg!J=B_W]!LWTDMVK!_LE!d=]MW`^!565!]EÊ=]BL!=KEVD=^!_WKE_LE]!M^!=!_W[MB=T!MV_E]E^_!MV!^BMEVBE! and technology”. In this research, eE!JWB`^!WV!LWe!=V!M^^È![]WD`BED!Ag!^BMEVBE!UEE_^!_LE! EBWVWUMB!eW]TD!=^!^_`DMED!=VD![E]JW]UED!Ag!EBWVWUMBû!

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! "EB=`Ê!WJ!M_^![T`]=T!=VD!U`T_MDM^BM[TMV=]g!V=_`]Er!565!]EÊ=]BL!`Ê^!VW_MWV^!_L=_!=]E!]MBL! =VD![WTgÊUMB!=VD!_L=_!VEED!_W!AE!BT=]MJMED!JW]!_LE!`Ê!WJ!_LM^!_LE^Mû!

3>HAOVHEH>#LOP[MA@FA u!565!DEdETW[ED!=!]MBL!B]M_MB=T!_LMVSMVK!=AW`_!BT=^^MB=T!]E[]EÊV_=_MWV^!WJ! ^BMEVBE!=^!=!DWU=MV!DE_=BLED!J]WU!^WBME_g!=VD!TMVE=]!UWDET^!KWMVK!J]WU! “pure” ^BMEV_MJMB! ]EÊ=]BL! _W! [WTM_MB=T! W]! EBWVWUMB! DEBM^MWVû! *V^_E=Dr! 565! AEK=V! _W! =V=TghE! _LE! ^WBM=T! production of scientific facts and innovations as collective processes focusing on science “in the making”. In these processes r!^WBM=T!J=B_^!=]E!MVdWTdED!MV!^BMEVBEu!5BMEVBE!M^!U=DE!Ag![EW[TE! eLW!=]E!=T^W!BM_MhEV^!=VD!EBWVWUMB!=KEV_^r!eLW!eW]S!MV!BWU[=VME^!W]!=DUMVM^_]=_MWV^!=VD! =B_`=TTg!DW!_LMVK^!{'ET_r!'W`BLGr!.MTTE]r!Ö!5UM_Ly$WE]]r!éåçís!)=BSE__r!?U^_E]D=U^S=r!-gVBLr! Ö!9=BRU=Vr!éååî|u!?^!2E^_]E!e]M_E^r!^BMEV ce it is “an institution and not just a knowledge”: !

“1;D>IODNON&9M>&DI&;JINO9IO&DIO> raction with the material world. […] &1;D>IODNON&9M>&>IB9B>=& DI&9&;JIODIPJPN&=>:9 te and interact with each other. […] 1;D>IODNONZ&O9F>I&DI=DQD=P9GGTZ&9M>& IJO&KPM>&M9ODJI9GDODes at work. […] 1;D>IODNON&;JH>&AMJH&=DAA>M>IO&DINODOPODJI9G&9I=&NJ;D9G& backgrounds. […] 1;D>IODNON&9M>&;JINO9IOGT&OMTDIB&OJ&PIDAT&OC>DM&KMJKJN9GN ”]&`.>NOM>Z&ljjpZ& KK]&k –lra&

#WVdE]^ETgr!^BMEVBE![]WD`BE^!VEe!EV_M_ME^!eLMBL!VEED!_W!AE!^WBM=TMhED!=VD!^WUE_MUE^!BL=VKE! _LE!^WBMWEBWVWUMB!eW]TDu!*_!EV=B_^!_LE!^WBM=T!{-=e!Ö!7]]gr!éååê|u!!

"MHN;VA#>G;OFA u!5_`DMED!J]WU!_LM^![E]^[EB_MdEr!_LE!B`]]EV_!BWVÊV^`^!WV!BTMU=_E!BL=VKE!L=D! _W!AE![=_MEV_Tg!A`MT_u!?^!DE^B]MAED!Ag!%De=]D^r!_LM^!MVdWTdED!=!T=]KE!BWUU`VM_g!WJ!]EÊ=]BLE]^r! “political and scientific institutions r! WAÊ]d=_MWV! VE_eW]S^r! =VD! ^BMEV_MJMB! []=B_MBE! }eLMBL~! EdWTdED!_WKE_LE]!WdE]!ÊdE]=T!BEV_`]ME^!_W!B`TUMV=_E!MV!_LE!KTWA=T!SVWeTEDKE!MVJ]=^_]`B_`]E! we have today”: !

“Our climate knowledge is provisional and imperfect. Yet it is real, and it is strong, becau N>& DO&DN&NPKKJMO>=&:T&9&BGJ:9G&DIAM9NOMP;OPM>&:PDGO&JI&JG=Z&MJ:PNO&J:N>MQDIB&NTNO>HN&9I=&M>ADI>=& predictive models, on extensive simulation experiments and model inter comparisons” `#=R9M=NZ&ljkjZ&K]&nmsa&

éë! ! /ÙE]MB=T!BM]B`T=_MWV!UWDET^!L=dE![T=gED!=!U=RW]!]WTEr!JM]^_!_W!A`MTD!_LM^!BWVÊV^`^!WV!_LE! B=`Ê^! WJ! BTMU=_E! BL=VKE! {(`MTTEUW_r! éååì|! =VD! VWe! _W! []WdMDE! MV[`_^! ]EK=]DMVK! _LE! BWVÊ\ÈVBE^!WJ!_LE![LEVWUEV=u!565!=]E!BWVBE]VED!eM_L!_LEÊ!^BMEV_MJMB!BWVBT`^MWV^!WV!_LE! e=g!eE!ÊEr!=VD!eE!TMdE!MV!_LE!BWV_EU[W]=]g!eW]TDu!6LEg!DEJEVD!_LE!Lg[W_LE^M^!_L=_!]E^`T_^! WV! BTMU=_E! BL=VKE! U=g! L=dE! L`KE! BWVÊ\ÈVBE^! =VD! ^LW`TD! MVD`BE! =! ]EVEe=T! WJ! W`]! ]E[]EÊV_=_MWV^! =VD! =B_MWV^! {EuKu! {?UMT_WV! E_! =Tur! éåçës! "E=`! Ö! -=]] è]Er! éåçës! $=L=V! Ö! (`MTTEUW_r!éåçë||u!

)OET;UVTW>VWTAUi# *VJ]=^_]`B_`]E^r!=^!^g^_EU^r!L=dE!AEEV!=![]MdMTEKED!]EÊ=]BL!_W[MB!JW]!565 ì!JW]! =!TWVK!_MUE!{"TWSr!/=S=hW]=r!Ö!9MV_LE]EMSr!éåçís!#W`_=]Dr!éååés!)`KLE^r!çïïès!.=gV_h!Ö! )`KLE^r!çïîîs!.ÙJW]D!Ö!9MVVE]r!éåçå|u!Making visible what is usually only “part of the background”, revealing critical connections (large systems in the making or consequences of incidents), STS see infrastructure as a “fundamentally relational concept” {5_=]r! çïïï|u! %De=]D^r! =J_E]! #=^_ETT^r! defines infrastructures as “those systems without which contemporary societies cannot function” {#=^_ETT^r! çïïís! %De=]D^r! éååè|u! *VDEEDr! MVJ]=^_]`B_`]E^!=]E!=_!_LE!MV_E]ÊB_MWV!WJ!U`T_M[TE!]ET=_MWV^LM[^!_L=_!^_]`B_`]E!=!BWTTEB_MdEu!6LEg! are the wires, tracks, pipes, which physically “binds us together” {-=_W`]r! éååër! [u! çîï|u! Infrastructures are made out of “hard” components –!WJ!^_EET!=VD!BWVB]E_E! –!A`_!=T^W!WJ!^WJ_E]! ETEUEV_^! =UWVK! eLMBL! EVE]Kgr! MVJW]U=_MWV! =VD! LÙ=Vy]ET=_MWV^LM[û! 9E! =]E! DE^B]MAMVK! _LEUr!JWTTWeMVK!_LE!565!_]=DM_MWVr!=^!BWU[TEf! ^WBMW_EBLVMB=T!^g^_EU^!{(ÈKÈVr!+=]]MKEr!-E! #W`]=V_r!Ö!2=TW\Èy"E]KE^r!éåçì|t! !

“The word “infrastructure” itself very often refers to the physical 9NK>;O&`OC>&C9M=R9M>a& whereas critical infrastructures are complex sociotechnical. […] As historians, sociologists, 9I=& 9IOCMJKJGJBDNON& JA& O>;CIJGJBT& DI;M>9NDIBGT& M>;JBIDU>Z& 9GG& DIAM9NOMP;OPM>N& 9M>& DI& A9;O& NJ;DJ_O>;CID;9G& DI& I9OPM>]& ,JO& JIGT& C9M=R9M>& :PO& JMB9IDU9ODJINZ& NJ;D9GGT_;JHHPID;9O>=& :9;FBMJPI=&FIJRG>=B>Z&B>I>M9G&9;;>KO9I;>&9I=&M>GD9I;>Z&9I=&I>9M_P:DLPDOJPN&9;;>NND:DGDOT& 9M>&M>LPDM>=&AJM&9&NTNO>H&OJ&:>&9I&DIAM9NOMP;OPM>]” `#=R9M=NZ&ljjma]&&

5_`DgMVK!MVJ]=^_]`B_`]Er!eE!\`E^_MWV!_LE!]ET=_MWV^LM[^!_W!_LE!_EBLVWTWKg!_LEg!]ETg!WVs!_W!_LE! =]E=^!_LEg!^E]dEs!_W!_LE!^WBM=T!=VD!EBWVWUMB!MV_E]=B_MWV^!_LEg!EV=ATEs!_W![WeE]!A=T=VBE!_LEg! ]EJTEB_r!_LE!^_=VD=]D^!_LEg!EUAWDgr!_LE!BWVdEV_MWV^!_LEg!]ETg!WVr!E_Bu!{5_=]r!çïïïs!9MVVE]r!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ì!Among the most famous works on infrastructures, we find researches on “large technical systems” !{-65|r!MVM_M=_ED!Ag!)`K`E^!{#W`_=]Dr! éååés!)`KLE^r!çïïès!.=gV_h!Ö!)`KLE^r!çïîî| . Alain Gras translated this notion in France with the term “macrosystème technique” {(]=^r! çïïè| . “The idea of large technical systems focuses attention on growth around a technological core. By contrast, infrastructures =]E!VW_! UE]ETg!T=]KE!^g^_EU^r!A`_!^WBMW_EBLVMB al institutions” {%De=]D^r!éååè|u!-65!_EVD!_W!DEdETW[!=TWVK!=!BE]_=MV![=__E]Vr!JWTTWeMVK!=![=_Le=g! visible “only on historical scales” and their development relies on key actors named “system ybuilders” who, at a certain point, “organize EfM^_MVK![W^^MAMTM_ ies into a complete system with a vision that must be simultaneously social and technical”. ! éí! ! çïîí|u!*VJ]=^_]`B_`]E^!=]E!^MU`T_=VEW`^Tg!_LE!W`_BWUE^!=VD!_LE!JT=K^LM[^!WJ!=!BE]_=MV!dM^MWV!WJ! =!BWTTEB_MdE!LW]MhWV!WJ_EV!B=TTED![]WK]E^^!W]!MVVWd=_MWVu!6LEg!AW_L!BWV_]MA`_E!_W!^L=[E!=VD! =]E!^L=[ED!DEdETW[UEV_![=_Le=g^!{DE]!8TE`_EVr!éååês!%De=]D^r!éååè|u!!

*VJ]=^_]`B_`]E^!=]E!=_!_LE!B]W^^]W=D^!WJ!^[=_MW_EU[W]=T!^B=TE^r!EBWVWUMBr![WTM_MB=T!=VD!^WBM=T! M^^È^r!JWTTWeMVK![=_Le=g^!=VD!EV=ATMVK![W^^MATE!J`_`]E^ îu!6LEg!L=dE!TMJE_MUE!Ef[EB_=VBME^!WJ! ÊdE]=T!DEB=DE^t!DEBM^MWV!U=DE!_WD=g!]EK=]DMVK!JW]!MV^_=VBE!VEe!DEdETW[UEV_!W]!]E_]WJM__MVK! []WK]=U^!eMTT!DE_E]UMVE!MVJ]=^_]`B_`]E!=D=[_=_MWV!_W!BTMU=_E!BL=VKE!WdE]!_LE!TWVK!]`V!{4MAEMTTr! éåçç|u!6LEg!=]E!AW_L!_LE!dE]g!JM]^_!WJ!W`]!=^Ê_^!Ef[WÊD!_W!BTMU=_E!L=h=]D^!=VD!_LEg!EUAWDg! W`]!^_]=_EKME^!_W![]W_EB_!=K=MV^_!=VD!BWV_]WT!_LWÊ!L=h=]Dû!6LEg![]W[=K=_E!_LE!BWVÊ\ÈVBE^! WJ!TWB=T!DM^]`[_MWV!=B]W^^!]EKMWV^ ï!=VD!_LEg!K`=]=V_EEr!_L]W`KL!BWVVEB_MdM_gr!=!BE]_=MV!JW]U!=! T=]KEy^B=TE!]E^MTMEVBE!WJ!EBWVWUME^t!!

&“Increasingly, modern societies are confronted with the forgotten relationship between :PDGO&DIAM9NOMP;OPM>N&9I=&OC>&9NNPH>=&:9;FBMJPI=&JA&I9OPM9G&AJM;>N&9I=&NOMP;OPM>N&PKJI& RCD;C&OC>&AJMH>M&M>GT]&*JIB&;JIND=>M>=&>NN>IOD9GGT&NO9OD;Z&OCDN&:9;FBMJPI=&DN&IJR&M>B9M=>=& IJO&JIGT&9N&I9OPM9GGT&Q9MD9:G>Z&:PO&9GNJ&9N&NP:E>;O&OJ&9GO>M9ODJI&:T&CPH9I&9;ODQDOT]&%GJ:9G& ;GDH9O>&;C9IB>Z&AJM&>S9HKG>Z&DN&;C9IBDIB&OC>&K9M9H>O>MN&RDOCDI&RCD;C&:PDGO&DIAM9NOMP;OPM>N& function” &`#=R9M=NZ&ljjma]&

)4F;8%CF;4B=N4H=CBG%4B7%H<8%6@=A4H8%GMGH8AS !565!TWWS!=_!=TT!_LWÊ!^[EBMJMB!WAREB_^!=^!=_!LgA]MD! ^g^_EU^r! U=DE! WJ! _EBLVMB=T! =VD! ^WBM=T! {LÙ=V! =VD! VWVyLÙ=V|! BWU[WVEV_û! *V! _LM^! [E]^[EB_MdEr!eE!=]E!UW]E!MV_E]E^_ED!MV!_LE![]WBE^^!W]!W]K=VMhMVK çå !_L=V!MV!_LE!W]K=VMh=_MWV!=^! =!^_=ATE!LWUWKEVEW`^!EV_M_gu!)WeEdE]r!eE!SEE[!_LE!_E]Ur!_LMVSMVK!eM_L!.GV=]D!_L=_!“s _`DME^! WJ! W]K=VMh=_MWV^! […] ! BWV^_M_`_E^! =! []MdMTEKED! _W[MB! JW]! MV_E]ÊB_MWV! AE_eEEV! EBWVWUMB^r! management and social sciences” {.GV=]Dr!éåçî|u&5MUMT=]Tgr!_LE]E!M^!VW!=`_WVWUW`^!BTMU=_E! _L=_!BW`TD!AE!=[[]ELEVDED!=^!=!eLWTEr!EfWKEVW`^r!J=B_W]u!6LWÊ!_E]U^!=]E!BWVdEVMEV_Tg!`ÊD! _W! DE^B]MAE! BWU[TEf! eE=dMVK^! WJ! MV_E]=B_MWV^! AE_eEEV! _LW`^=VD^! WJ! BWU[WVEV_^! =^! LE_E]WKEVEW`^!=^!_LE!=UAM_MWV!WJ!=!]EKMWV=T![WTM_MBM=Vr!_LE!Ef[E]MEVBE!WJ!=!]=MTe=g!eW]SE]r! _LE!]E^M^_=VBE!WJ!BWV_MV`W`^!eETDED!]=MTr!_LE!DM=UE_E]!WJ!=!D]=MV=KE!VWhhTEr!_LE!e=_E]!^[]=g^!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! î![…] !*!L=dE!=]KÈD!_L=_!^_`DgMVK!MVJ]=^_]`B_`]E^!WV!DMJJE]EV_!^B=TE^!WJ!JW]BEr!_MUEr!=VD!^WBM=T!W]K=VMh=_MWV![]WD`BE^!DMJJE]EV_![MB_`]E^!WJ! LWe!_LEg!DEdETW[r!=^!eETT!=^!WJ!_LEM]!BWV^_]=MVMVK!=VD!EV=ATMVK!EJJEB_^!WV!^WBM=T!=VD!MVDMdMD`=T!TMJEu!$MJJE]EV_!^B=T=]!dMEe^!=T^W!TE=D!_W! different pictures of the solidity of the “modernist settlement” that separates nature, society, and technology”. (Edwards, 2 ååè|! ï!EuKu! “The complexity of the current transport system has an amplifying effect on [climate] impacts: i J!DM^]`[_MWV^!=JJEB_!B]M_MB=T!ÊB_MWV^! WJ!_LE!VE_eW]Sr!_]=V^[W]_!JTWe^!U=g!AE!DET=gED!W]!^_W[[ED!U=Vg!SMTWUE_E]^!=e=g!J]WU!_LE!=]E=!W]MKMV=TTg! =JJEB_EDu!.`T_MyUWD=Tr! BWU[TEf!_]=V^[W]_!BL=MV^!=VD!_LEM]!=^^WBM=_ED![]WD`B_MWV!=VD!TWKM^_MB^!=B_MdM_ME^!BW`TD!AE!L=T_EDr!=VD!_LE!D=MTg!]W`_MVE^!WJ!UMTTMWV^!WJ! BM_MhEV^!BW`TD!AE!=T_E]EDs!=VD!MJ!d`TVE]=ATE!MVJ]=^_]`B_`]E^!=]E!Ê]dMVK!]EKMWV^!eM_L!=T]E=Dg!TMUM_ED!=BBE^^MAMTM_g!=T_E]V=_MdE^r!_LEg!BW`TD! BWU[]WUMÊ!_LEM]!DEdETW[UEV_![]W^[EB_^!{%`]W[E=V!%VdM]WVUEV_!?KEVBgr!éåçê|! çå !)WTDMVK!_WKE_LE]r!SEE[MVK!=!BWTTEB_MdEr!U=V=KMVK!_LE!_EV^MWV!AE_eEEV!=d=MT=ATE!]E^W`]BE^!=VD!=!KW=Tu! éì! ! WJ!5=MV_y4WBL!^_=_MWVr!LWTMD=g^![]EJE]EVBE^!WJ!']EVBL!J=UMTME^r!_LE!]M^S!=dE]^MWV!WJ!K]EEV!AWVD! LWTDE]^r!_LE!B`]MW^M_g!WJ!=!_]=V^[W]_!RW`]V=TM^_r!_LE!VWVBL=T=VBE!WJ!=!ÛWSE]!eLW!_L]We^!LM^! A`__!Ag!_LE!_]=BSr!_LE!MV_E]E^_!WJ!=!e=_E]yAW__TE!^_]EE_!dEVDW]r!_LE!MVd=^MdEVE^^!WJ!?UA]W^M=r!

_LE!e=]UMVK![W_EV_M=T! WJ!#0 é!UWTEB`TE^!EUM__ED!MV!"EMRMVK!W]!MV!_LE!2=]M^M=V!^`A`]A^r!_LE! #EdEVVE^!U=^^MJ!ATWBSMVK!^_W]U!BTW`D^!J]WU!_LE!.EDM_E]]=VE=V!W]!_LE!DEK]EE!WJ!^WMT!UWM^_`]Eu!!

.=Vg!^_`DME^!eM_LMV!_LE!JMETD!WJ!565!L=dE!JWB`ÊD!WV!UWUEV_^!eLEV!EV_M_ME^!=VD!BWTTEB_MdE^! =]E!VW_!gE_!W]!VW_!=VgUW]E!^_=AMTMhEDs!_LWÊ!UWUEV_^!eLEV!BWV_W`]^!WJ!=![]MW]M!eETTyDEJMVED! K]W`[^! WJ! B=_EKW]ME^! AEBWUE! `VBE]_=MVu! 6LE! []WD`B_MWV! WJ! VEe! ^BMEV_MJMB! J=B_^r! _LE! ^WBM=TMh=_MWV! WJ! =V! MVVWd=_MWV! W]! =BBMDEV_^! =]E! =UWVK! _LEÊ! [=]_MB`T=]! ^M_`=_MWV^! MV! eLMBL! “solid” relationships become magmatic çç t!

“According to the definition of the Encyclopedia Britannica, magma is a flow of ‘partiall T& molten rock’, a configuration in which rock is both liquid and solid at the same time, exactly as social is in controversies. But there’s more to this metaphor: &RC9O&DN&HJNO&DIO>M>NODIB&DI& H9BH9&DN&OC9O&NJGD=&9I=&GDLPD=&NO9O>N&>SDNO&DI&9&;>9N>G>NN&HPOP9G&OM9INAJMH9ODJI]&-I&OC>& JI>&C9I=Z&OC>&NJGD=&MJ;F&OJP;C>=&:T&OC>&C>9O&JA&OC>&AGJR&H>GON&9I=&:>;JH>N&K9MO&JA&OC>& NOM>9H]&-I&OC>&JOC>M&C9I=Z&9O&OC>&H9MBDIN&JA&OC>&AGJRZ&OC>&G9Q9&;JJGN&=JRI&9I=&;MTNO9GGDU>N]& […] Through this dynamic the social is unremittingly & ;JINOMP;O>=Z& =>;JINOMP;O>=& 9I=& reconstructed. This is the social in action and that’s why we have no other choice than =DQDIB&DI&H9BH9]&`4>IOPMDIDZ&ljkja&

6LEÊ!^M_`=_MWV^!]=MÊD!KWdE]VUEV_=TM_g!M^^È^r!_LE!^WBM=T!AEMVK!DE^_=AMTMhED!Ag!_LE!W`_BWUE! WJ!^BMEVBE!=VD!_EBLVWTWKgr!eE!VEED!_W!]EBWU[WÊr!]EW]K=VMhEr!MV_EK]=_E!_LE!VEe!ETEUEV_^r! JMVD!=V!=D=[_ED!=VD!=Te=g^!_EU[W]=]g! NP@WU#ZHZAO@H# {-M[[U=VV!Ö!-=_W`]r!éååîr![u!çåë| i#

5WBM=TMhMVK! BTMU=_E! SVWeTEDKE! J=TT^! MV_W! _LM^! []WATEU=_MB! B=_EKW]g! {)`TUEr! éååï|u! 9LEV! MUUE]ÊD!MV!=![=]_MB`T=]!W]K=VMh=_MWVr!M_!M^!=!^W`]BE!WJ!DM^=K]EEUEV_t!_W[y[]MW]M_g!JW]!^WUE! =B_W]^r!ÊBWVD=]g!JW]!W_LE]^r!U=RW]!BL=TTEVKE!JW]!_LE!^_]`B_`]E!WJ!_LE!^g^_EU!M_ÊTJ!W]!^MU[TE! [E]M[LE]=T![E]_`]A=_MWVr!`]KEV_!W]!E=^MTg![W^_[WVEDu!.`T_M[TE!]E[]EÊV_=_MWV^!TMdE!_WKE_LE]r! BWVdE]KEV_!W]!MVBWU[=_MATEt!JW]!^WUE![EW[TEr!BTMU=_E!BL=VKE!M^!_LE!MU=KE!WJ!KTWA=T!BL=VKE^! =VD!L=^!=!^gUAWTMBr![=]=DMKU=_MBr!^À^_=VBEs!JW]!W_LE]^!M_!M^!=!dE]g!^[EBMJMB![]WATEU!_L=_!B=V! WVTg!AE!=DD]E^ÊD!MV!E=BL!TWB=T!BWV_Ef_!Ag!JM]^_!DE^B]MAMVK!_LE!=B_`=T!EJJEB_!WV!_LE!^g^_EUu! Heterogeneous, “not yet stabilized, closed or back yboxed” r! _LE! MV_E]=B_MWV! AE_eEEV!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! çç !Those moments of shared uncertainty are called “controversies” in this literature–!_LM^!_E]U!M^!_LE]EJW]E!`ÊD!eM_L!=!A]W=DE]!UE=VMVK!_L=V! eL=_! we are used to in everyday language: “Every bit of science and technology which is not yet stabilized, closed or black yboxed” (Macospol, éååì|! éî! ! SVWeTEDKE!WV!J`_`]E!BL=VKE^!=VD!=!^WBMWEBWVWUMB!W]K=VMh=_MWV!^`BL!=^!_LE!']EVBL!]=MTe=g! ^g^_EU!B=]]g!_LE!ÊED^!WJ![W_EV_M=T!BWV_]WdE]^MEû!

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9E!L=D!_LE!W[[W]_`VM_g!_W!DW!^W!eM_L!WVE![=]_MB`T=]!BWU[=Vg! –!V=UETg!5/#'! –!MV_]WD`BED!MV! _LE! VEf_! ÊB_MWV! =VD! []EÊV_ED! MV! J`]_LE]! DE_=MT^! MV! BL=[_E]! èu! 9E! DEBMDED! _W! _=SE! _LM^! W[[W]_`VM_g!_W!BWVD`B_!=V!MVyDE[_L!eW]S!eM_L!_LM^!W]K=VMh=_MWVu!6LE!eW]S![]EÊV_ED!MV!_LE! VEf_!BL=[_E]^!M^!_LE]EJW]E!JM]^_!=VD!JW]EUW^_!=V!EU[M]MB=T!eW]Su!0`]!MV_EV_MWV!L=^!AEEV!_W! BWTTEB_!W]MKMV=T!U=_E]M=Tr!_W!WAÊ]dE!eL=_!e=^!KWMVK!WVr!_W!DE^MKV!_E^_^!=VD!_W!Ef[E]MUEV_!MV! ^M_ù!*V!^LW]_r!eE!BLWÊ!_W!B=]]g!W`_!=![]=KU=_MB!MVdE^_MK=_MWV!]EK=]DMVK!eL=_!SVWeTEDKE!WV! BTMU=_E! BL=VKE! M^! =B_`=TTg! DWMVK! _W! ^`BL! =V! W]K=VMh=_MWV! =VD! eL=_! [EW[TE! eM_LMV! _LM^! W]K=VMh=_MWV!=]E!DWMVK!eM_L!_LM^!SVWeTEDKEu!!

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&“We are in the business of description. Everyone else is trading on ;GD;C@N]& #ILPDMD>NZ& NPMQ>TZ&AD>G=RJMFZ&9M;CDQ>NZ&KJGGNZ&RC9O>Q>M —&R>&BJZ&R>&GDNO>IZ&R>&G>9MIZ&R>&KM9;OD;>Z&R>& become competent, we change our views. Very simple really: it’s called inquiries. Good inquiries always produce a lot of new descriptions”. &`*9OJPMZ&ljjoZ&K]&koqa&&

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èå! ! ]EK=]DMVK!JW]!MV^_=VBE!_LE!]ETEd=VBE!WJ!^BMEV_MJMB!MVJW]U=_MWV!W]!_LE!DEBM^MWVyU=SMVK![]WBE^û! 6LWÊ!=]E!BWU[TEf![]WBE^Ê^!MV!eLMBL!eE!B=V!L=]DTg!_E^_!E=BL!^[EBMJMB![]EUMÊ!MV!=!DED`B_MdE! e=gu! 6LM^! M^! eLg! eE! BLWÊ! =V! MVD`B_MdE! =[[]W=BLu! 9E! e=V_ED! _W! DE^B]MAE! JM]^_r! AEJW]E! assuming that any form of “translation” could be the most relevant. Such an inductive [E]^[EB_MdE!M^!VW_!_LE!UW^_!BWUUWV!MV!^BMEVBE^!WJ!=D=[_=_MWVu!9M_L!_LM^!_LE^M^r!eE!e=V_!_W! []W[WÊ!M_!=^!=V!MV_E]E^_MVK!=T_E]V=_MdE!_W!UWdE!JW]e=]D!MV!=D=[_=_MWV!MU[TEUEV_=_MWVu!

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'W]!_LE!?/6r!^_=AMTM_g!M^!eL=_!L=^!_W!AE!Ef[T=MVEDu!*VM_M=TTg!DEdETW[ED!_W!^_`Dg!_LE!^`BBE^^!WJ! MVVWd=_MWV^!{?S]MBLr!#=TTWVr!Ö!-=_W`]r!çïîî|r!?/6!M^!=V!=__EU[_!_W!`VDE]^_=VD!_LE![]WBE^Ê^! WJ! B]E=_MWV! =VD! ^WBM=TMh=_MWV! WJ! ^BMEVBE! =VD! _EBLVWTWKg! Ag! JWB`^MVK! WV! _LE! B=[=BM_g! WJ! LE_E]WKEVEW`^!=B_W]^!_W!DW!_LMVK^!_L]W`KL!_LEM]!BWVVEB_MWV^t!“knowled KE!M^!=!^WBM=T![]WD`B_! which […] may be seen as a product or an effect of a network of heterogeneous material” {-=er!çïïé|u!*_!M^!]ETEd=V_!MV!W`]!B=Ê!eLEV!BWV^MDE]MVK!=D=[_=_MWV!=^!=![]WBE^^!WJ!^_=AMTMh=_MWVr! =V!=__EU[_!_W!]EBWU[WÊ!W`]!BWUUWV!eW]TDr!\È^_MWVED!Ag!_LE!^BMEV_MJMB!eW]S!WV!MU[=B_^!WJ! BTMU=_E! BL=VKE! =VD! d`TVE]=AMTM_g! WJ! ^WBME_ME^ çè u! ?/6! ^`M_^! eETT! _LM^! UWUEV_! WJ! ^L=]ED! `VBE]_=MV_gu!

9M_L! ?/6r! _LE! investigation starts “in the middle of things” {-=_W`]r! éååër! [u! éì|r! _LEVr! M_! patiently follows actants’ traces {-=_W`]r!çïîì|u!?B_=V_^!W]!=B_W]^!=]E!=Vg!_LMVK^!y!LÙ=V!W]! VWVyLÙ=V!y!that do “modify a state of affairs by making a difference”. Actors do not just _]=V^[W]_! MVJW]U=_MWV! A`_! W[E]=_E! DM^[T=BEUEV_^r! _]=V^JW]U=_MWV^r! _]=V^T=_MWVû! 6LWÊ! _]=V^JW]U=_MWV^!TE=dE!JWW_[]MV_^r!=VD!_LE!]EÊ=]BLE]!TWWS^!JW]!_LEUu!)E![]WD`BE^!DEdMBE^r! []W[WÊ!_E^_^!_W!=B_W]^r!_W!]EBW]D!_LEUu!'WTTWeMVK!_LE!_W[WK]=[Lg!WJ!_LE!MVdE^_MK=_MWV!JMETDr! LE!UWdE^!J]WU!WVE!dMEe[WMV_!_W!=VW_LE]r!U`T_M[TgMVK![E]^[EB_MdE^!WV!_LE!=B_MWVu!)E!D]=e^! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! çè !5_`DgMVK!=D=[_=_MWV!_L]W`KL!_LE!TEV^!WJ!?/6r!eE!JMVD!K]E=_!^MUMT=]M_ME^!AE_eEEV!MVVWd=_MWV!=VD!=D=[_=_MWVt!AW_L!=]E!=V!W`_BWUE!J]WU! ^BMEVBE!=VD!=![]WBE^^!_L=_!UMKL_!AE!=ATE!_W!_]=V^JW]U!^WBM=T!=]]=VKEUEV_u!9E!_=TS!=AW`_!_EBLVMB=T!W]!W]K=VMh=_MWV=T!MVVWd=_MWV!=^!eETT!=^! _EBLVMB=T! W]! W]K=VMh=_MWV=T! =D=[_=_MWVs! MVB]EUEV_=T! W]! _]=V^JW]U=_MdE!MVVWd=_MWV^!=VD!=D=[_=_MWVu!"W_L! =]E!^W`]BE^! WJ! vMV_E][]E_=_MdE! JTEfMAMTM_g!w!W]!v!`VBE]_=MV_g!wu!*V!_LM^!]EÊ=]BL!eE!`VDE]^_=VD!_L=_!=D=[_=_MWV!]E\`M]E^!_LE!BWV^_]`B_MWV!WJ!=V!=B_W]yVE_eW]S!=^!eETT!=^! MVVWd=_MWVû! èé! ! _LE!VE_eW]S^!WJ!BWVVEB_MWV^!_L=V!EV=ATE!_LE!=B_W]^! –!_L]W`KL!^[=BE!=VD!_MUE! –!_W!=B_`=TTg!DW! ^WUE_LMVKu!?B_W]^!L=dE!=KEVBg!AEB=`Ê!_LEg!=]E!VE_eW]Sû!6LE!]EÊ=]BLE]!DE^B]MAE^!LWe! U`T_M[TE^!^M_E^!=]E!BWVVEB_EDr!VW_!MV!_LEW]g!A`_!Ag!=B_`=Tr!WAÊ]d=ATE!TMVSû!!

“To understand how social phenomena are built it’s not enough to observe actors alone not it’s enough to observe social networks once they are stabilized. What should be J:N>MQ>=&9M>&OC>&9;OJMN_I>ORJMF&OC9O&DN&OJ&N9T&OC>&AG>>ODIB&;JIADBPM9ODJI&RC>M>&9;OJMN&9M>& I>BJOD9ODIB&OC>&OD>N&JA&JG=&I>ORJMFN&9I=&OC>&>H>MB>I;>&JA&I>R&I>ORJMFN&DN&M>=>ADIDIB&OC>& D=>IODOT&JA&9;OJMN]”&`4>IOPMDIDZ&ljkja&

.W]E!_L=V!=!_LEW]gr!?/6!JM]^_!DE^B]MAE^!=!]EÊ=]BL!=__M_`DE!_W!=DW[_!eLEV!BWVD`B_MVK!^`BL!=! field work. Callon proposes three principles to characterize this attitude: “ =KVW^_MBMÛ! {MU[=]_M=TM_g!AE_eEEV!=B_W]^|s!KEVE]=TMhED!^gUUE_]g!{_LE!BWUUM_UEV_!_W!Ef[T=MV!BWVJTMB_MVK! dMEe[WMV_^! MV! _LE! ^=UE! _E]U^|! =VD! J]EE! =^^WBM=_MWV! {_LE! =A=VDWVUEV_! WJ! =TT! =! []MW]M! distinctions between the natural and the social)” ! {#=TTWVr! çïïí|u! "=ÊD! WV! _LM^! =__M_`DEr! 8EV_`]MVM!EV umerates four requirements to “dive in magma”: ![erplexity (“n W_!^MU[TMJgMVK!_LE! number of propositions” |r! B onsultation (“n W_! ^LW]_ycutting actor’s voices” |r! LME]=]BLMh=_MWV! {“Discussing compatibility of propositions” |!=VD!MV^_M_`_MWVt!{“WVBE![]W[W^M_MWV!MV^_M_`_EDr!VW_! \È^_MWVMVK! _LEM]! TEKM_MU=Bg ”). We have decided to adopt this attitude and follow these []MVBM[TEû!

9E! E^[EBM=TTg! A`MT_! W`]! ]E^E=]BL! WV! _LE! DEdETW[UEV_^! WJ! ?/6! U=DE! _W! ^_`Dg! U=KU=_MB! UWUEV_^! through “cartography of controversies” ! (European Commission : CORDIS, 2010; 8EV_`]MVM! E_! =Tur! éåçês! 8EV_`]MVMr! 4MBBMr! .=`]Mr! ,MUAETTr! Ö! .E`VME]r! éåçë|u! .=[[MVK! controversies is the “exercise of crafting devices _W! WA^E]dE! =VD! DE^B]MAE! ^WBM=T! DEA=_E! especially, but not exclusively, around techno scientific issues” {8EV_`]MVMr!éåçå|u!*_!=MU^!=_! Ef[TW]MVK!=VD!dM^`=TMhMVK!_LE!BWU[TEfM_g!WJ!BWV_EU[W]=]g!DEA=_E^r!VW_!=_!]ED`BMVK!M_!W]!_]gMVK! to provide definitive arbitration between actors’ positions. !

6LE^E!=[[]W=BL!BWUE!eM_L!a form of minimalism in the method: “Just yTWWS!=VD!_ETT!eL=_!gW`! ^EE ” {8EV_`]MVMr!éåçå| Q& keeping an “Infra ylanguage” t!

&“[ANT] main tenet is that actors themselves make everything, including their own frames, OC>DM&JRI&OC>JMD>NZ&OC>DM&JRI&;JIO>SONZ&OC>DM&JRI&H>O9KCTND;NZ&>Q>I&OC>DM&JRI&JIOJGJBD>N]& So the direction to follow would be more descriptions I am afraid”. `*9OJPMZ&ljjoZ&K]&koqa&&

#WV^M^_EV_Tg!eM_L!565!_]=DM_MWVr!_LE!]E^E=]BLE]!DWE^!VW_!_]g!_W!Ef[T=MV!eL=_!LE!M^!WA^E]dMVK!Ag! referring to any “context” or preexisting “groups”, nor to propose additional categories or

èè! ! =^^ÙE!=B_MWV!WJ!MVdM^MATE!JW]BEû!)E!R`^_!]E[W]_^!=AW`_!BWV_Ef_`=TMh=_MWV!=VD!KEVE]=TMh=_MWV! []W[WÊD!Ag!=B_W]^r!U=SMVK!_]=BS=ATE!BL=MV^!WJ!]ET=_MWV^!=VD!]EK]W`[MVK^!dM^MATEu!!

“Follow the connections, ‘follow the actors themselves’. No cold objectification has taken KG9;>&OC>M>Z&IJ&NPK>MDJM&M>9NJI&DN&:>DIB&PIAJG=>=]&#Q>MTRC>M>Z&:GDI=&O>MHDO>N&9M>&:PNT& ;M9IFDIB&JPO&=9O9]&(PNO&F>>K&NIDAADIB&OCMJPBC&OC>DM&B9GG>MD>NZ&IJ&H9OO>M&CJR&A9M&OCDN&O9F>N& TJP]& 2C>& N9H>& ;C9IB>& JA& OJKJBM9KCT& J;;PMN& >Q>MT& ODH>& TJP& M>KG9;>& NJH>& HTNO>MDJPN& NOMP;OPM>&:T&APGGT&QDND:G>&9I=&>HKDMD;9GGT&OM9;>9:G>&NDO>N]&?I&JMB9IDU9ODJI&DN&;>MO9DIGT&IJO& ‘bigger’ than those it organizes.” `*9OJPMZ&ljjoZ&K]&ksja&&

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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! çë !L__[txxeeeu=DEUEuJ]xEVx_LEy_LE^M^y[]WK]=UUE !y!T=^_!=BBE^ÊD!.=g!éåçî! çí eeeu=DEUEuJ]xEf[E]_MÊ^xBL=VKEUEV_yBTMU=_M\ÈyEVE]KMEx[=^Ê]y=yT=B_MWVxBWUUEV_y^=D=[_E]yBL=VKEUEV_yBTMU=_M\Èx[ÀTMB=_MWV^y W`_MT^yBWTTEB_MdM_E^y_E]]M_W]M=TE^!y!T=^_!=BBE^ÊD!+`Tg!éåçî! èî! ! 6LE! #%?4#! M^! =! ]EÊ=]BL! T=A! eW]SMVK! WV! #`T_`]E^r! %VdM]WVUEV_^r! ?]B_MBr! Representations, and Climate. The team working on adaptation focuses on “the !$"0!& –&7VMdE]^M_g!8E]^=MTTE^! ^_`Dg! WJ! _LE! MV_E]=B_MWV^! AE_eEEV! LÙ=V! ^WBME_ME^! =VD! _LEM]! BL=VKMVK! 5=MV_y3ÈV_MV!EV!;dETMVE^ & environment within the various conceivable sustainability paths”. Its research is “based first of all on a postulate: repeated, invasive, global crises and the =BBÙ`T=_MWV!WJ![E]VMBMW`^![]WATEU^!=]E!VW_!=__]MA`_=ATE!_W![]=B_MBE^!_L=_!=]E! eW`TD!AE!=ATE!_W!]EJW]U!K]=D`=TTg!=VD!U=]KMV=TTgr!A`_!_W!=!DEJMBM_!WJ!^`^_=MV=AMTM_g! WJ! W`]! [WTMBME^r! W]! EdEV! _LE! ^WBMWy[WTM_MB=T! ^g^_EU! M_ÊTJu! *V! _LM^! ÊVÊr! _LE! & _]=V^M_MWV!_W!^`^_=MV=AMTM_g!M^!=!]=DMB=T!_]=V^JW]U=_MWVr!_=SMVK![T=BE!WdE]!=!TWVK! !eeeuBE=]BuJ] ! [E]MWD!WJ!_MUEr!Ag![=_L^!_L=_!=]E!J=]!J]WU!AEMVK!^_]=MKL_!=VD!JW]!eLMBL!eE!B=V! observe accelerations, slowdowns and even backtrack”. This thesis offers a particular case, studying a specific “corporate”/organizational culture. !

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As advised by Latour, we kept virtual notebooks “to keep track of all our moves” {-=_W`]r! éååër![[u!çèè –çèë| , considering that “everything is data”: interviews, but also telephone B=TT^r!UEE_MVK^r!BWJJEEyDM^B`^^MWV!eM_L!BWTTE=KÈ^r!^MDEy[]WREB_^r!E_Bu!9E!L=D!=!JM]^_!MV\`M]g! TWK! _W! ]EKM^_E]! =TT! _LE! DE_=MT^! =AW`_! eL=_! eE! DMDr! =! VW_EAWWS! _W! K=_LE]! MVJW]U=_MWV! BL]WVWTWKMB=TTg!=VD!DM^[=_BLED!MV!B=_EKW]ME^!_L=_!EdWTdED!=TT!=TWVK!_LE![]WBE^^r!JMTE^!JW]! êè! ! “ad libitum” writing trials and eventually record ^!WJ!_LE!EJJEB_^!WJ!eL=_!eE!e]W_E!WV!_LE! =B_W]^!_LEUÊTdEû!9M_L!_LEU!eE!L=dE!AEEV!e]M_MVK!=VD!]Ee]M_MVK!DE^B]M[_MWV^!=_!=TUW^_! =Vg!^_E[!WJ!_LE![]WBE^û!6Ef_^!`VDE]!ÊdE]=T!JW]U^r!L=dE!AEEV!W`]!T=A^t!

“The text, in our discipline, is not a story, not a nice &story. Rather, it’s the functional equivalent of a laboratory. It’s a place for trials, experiments, and simulations. ">K>I=DIB&JI&RC9O&C9KK>IN&DI&DOZ&OC>M>&DN&JM&OC>M>&DN&IJO&9I&9;OJM&9I=&OC>M>&DN&JM&OC>M>& DN&IJO&9&I>ORJMF&:>DIB&OM9;>=]&?I=&OC9O&=>K>I=N&>IODM>GT&JI&OC>&KM>;DN>&R9TN&DI&RCD;C& DO&DN&RMDOO>I&9I=&>Q>MT&NDIBG>&I>R&OJKD;&M>LPDM>N&9&I>R&R9T&OJ&:>&C9I=G>=&:T&9&O>SO]& Most texts are just plain dead. Nothing happens in them.” &`*9OJPMZ&ljjoZ&K]&knsa&

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These two sentences are the “Point of Departure” of the contribution of Working (]W`[!**!y!DE=TMVK!eM_L!*U[=B_^r!?D=[_=_MWV!=VD!8`TVE]=AMTM_g!y!WJ!_LE!*V_E]KWdE]VUEV_=T!2=VET! WV! #TMU=_E! #L=VKE! _W! M_^! 'MJ_L! ?^Ê^ÛEV_! 4E[W]_u! 6LM^! ^BMEV_MJMB! SVWeTEDKE! [E]MWDMB=TTg! =^Ê^ÊD!Ag!_LE!*2##![]WdMDE^!_LE!A=^M^!JW]!UW^_!DM^B`^^MWV^!=VD!]E^[WVÊ^!]EK=]DMVK!BTMU=_E! BL=VKEu!

*_! KMdE^! =! BTE=]! WdE]dMEe! WJ! =! ]MBL! =VD! DMdE]Ê! ^BMEVBE! {*2##r! éåçêr! #L=[_E]! ç|u! -M_E]=_`]E! [ÀTM^LED! WV! _LE! _W[MB! WJ! BTMU=_E! BL=VKE! AE_eEEV! çïìå! =VD! çïïå! JWB`ÊD! []MU=]MTg! WV! BL=VKE^!MV!_LE![Lg^MB=T!BTMU=_E!^g^_EU!=VD!LWe!_LEÊ!BL=VKE^!=JJEB_ED!W_LE]!=^[EB_^!WJ!_LE! Earth’s physical environment. It now encompasses studies on many socioecological =VD!

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“The globally av >M9B>=&;JH:DI>=&G9I=&9I=&J;>9I&NPMA9;>&O>HK>M9OPM>&=9O9&9N&;9G;PG9O>=& by a linear trend show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C over the period 1880 to 2012” `'.!!Z&ljkn:Z&K]&la&

“Relative to 1850–ksjjZ&BGJ:9G&NPMA9;>&O>HK>M9OPM>&;C9IB>&AJM&OC>&>I=&JA&OC>&lk NO &;>IOPMT& `ljrk –lkjja& DN& KMJE>;O>=& OJ& GDF>GT& >S;>>=& k]og!& AJM& 0!.n]oZ& 0!.p]j& 9I=& 0!.r]o& `CDBC& ;JIAD=>I;>a]& 59MHDIB& DN&GDF>GT& OJ& >S;>>=& lg!& AJM& 0!.p]j& 9I=& 0!.r]o& `CDBC& ;JIAD=>I;>aZ& HJM>&GDF>GT&OC9I&IJO&OJ&>S;>>=&lg!&AJM&0!.n]o&`H>=DPH&;JIAD=>I;>aZ&:PO&PIGDF>GT&OJ&>S;>>=& lg!&AJM&0!.l]p&`H>=DPH&;JIAD=>I;>a]&2C>&DI;M>9N>&JA&BGJ:9G&H>9I&NPMA9;>&O>HK>M9OPM>&:T& OC>&>I=&JA&OC>&lkNO&;>IOPMT&`ljrk –lkjja&M>G9ODQ>&OJ&ksrp –ljjo&DN&GDF>GT&OJ&:>&j]mg!&OJ&k]qg!& PI=>M&0!.l]pZ&k]kg!&OJ&l]pg!&PI=>M&0!.n]oZ&k]ng!&OJ&m]kg!&PI=>M&0!.p]j&9I=&l]pg!&OJ&n]rg!& under RCP8.5. The Arctic region will continue to warm more rapidly than the global mean.” `'.!!Z&ljkn:Z&K]&kja&&

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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! éè !L__[txxeeeueUWuMV_x[=KE^x[]WKxeB[xBBTxJ=\xJ=\zDWBzEVuL_UT!y!T=^_!=BBE^ÊD!+`VE!éåçî! ëç! ! )JAI>H53A3GT ! #TMU=_E! BL=VKE! M^! =! KTWA=T! [LEVWUEVWV! eM_L! AW_L! TWB=T! D]MdE]^! =VD! BWVÊ\ÈVBEû!"EgWVD!KTWA=T!=dE]=KEr!M_!=JJEB_^!E=BL!]EKMWV!MV!=!^[EBMJMB!e=gu!'W]!MV^_=VBEr! eLEV! _LE! _EU[E]=_`]E! =VWU=Tg! MV! ^ÙUE]! MV! _LE! VW]_LE]V! LEUM^[LE]E! e=^! ôåuîêÜ#! MV! =dE]=KE!WdE]!éåçì!M_!e=^!ôçuèçÜ#!WV!T=VD!{/0??r!éåçî|u!6LM^!M^!EdEV!UW]E!^=TMEV_!]EK=]DMVK! d=]M=AMTM_gu!.=Vg!eE=_LE]![=__E]V^!]E^`T_!J]WU!TWB=T!D]MdE]^!TMSE!^[EBMJMB!MV_E]=B_MWV^!AE_eEEV! =_UW^[LE]MB!BM]B`T=_MWV^!=VD!_LE!=]E=!_W[WK]=[Lgu!'W]!Ef=U[TE!MV!_LE!^W`_L!WJ!']=VBEr!^W! called Mediterranean episodes (or “episode c Evenols”) are p =]_MB`T=]!eE=_LE]!^M_`=_MWV^!MV! eLMBL!_LE!MVJTÈVBE!WJ!_LE!]ETMEJ!M^![]E[WVDE]=V_ éê ” {+=B\È^r!éåçís!8=`_=]D!E_!=Tur!éåçë|u!6LE! ^_`Dg!WJ![]EBM[M_=_MWV^r!MV!_LM^!BWV_Ef_r!]EU=MV^!=!U=RW]!BL=TTEVKE!JW]!BTMU=_WTWKM^_û!#`]]EV_! ^_`DME^!^LWer!LWeEdE]r!_L=_!.EDM_E]]=VE=V!E[M^WDE^!U=g!AE!UW]E!J]E\ÈV_!=VD![W_EV_M=TTg! UW]E!MV_EVÊ!=_!_LE!EVD!WJ!_LE!éç ^_ !BEV_`]gu!!

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XT A science made to be “policy Urelevant” for adaptation (

#WU[MTED!MV!]E[W]_^!^`BL!=^!_LE!*2##!=^Ê^ÛEV_^r!_LE!%%?!]E[W]_^!W]!_LE!V=_MWV=T!]E[W]_^! =VD! D=_=A=Ê^! eE! UEV_MWVEDr! _LM^! SVWeTEDKE! M^! MV_EVDED! to be “policy relevant” {*2##r! éåçê=|u!.W^_!WJ!_LE!SVWeTEDKE!MVJ]=^_]`B_`]E!A`MT_!=]W`VD!_LE!\È^_MWV!WJ!BTMU=_E!BL=VKE!=]E! DE^MKVED!_W![]WdMDE! WUAEWM !^BMEVBE éì !{#=]UEV!-EUW^!Ö!4WWDr!éåçås!%De=]D^r!éåçå|u!?^!8=V! DE]!5 luij already noted in 1997, “important trends in the […] history of climate change analysis eE]E! =! ^LMJ_! J]WU! ^BMEV_MJMByB`]MW^M_gyD]MdEV! _We=]D^! M^^ÈyD]MdEV! ]EÊ=]BLr! =V! MVB]E=ÊD! DEU=VD!JW]!=^Ê^ÛEV_!WJ!_LE!]M^S^!WJ!BTMU=_E!BL=VKEr!=VD!=V!MVB]E=ÊD!DEU=VD!JW]!=V=Tg^M^! WJ!_LE![WTMBgyUE=VMVK!WJ!_LE!SVWeTEDKE!=VD!_LEW]ME^!=AW`_!_LE!LÙ=V!MVJTÈVBE!WV!BTMU ate” {8=V!DE]!5T`MR^r!çïïìr![u!çî| . More recently, Wise et al. observed “a growing intensity of calls JW]!UW]E!DEBM^MWVyoriented research […]. as priorities h =dE!UWdED!J]WU!E^_MU=_MVK!MU[=B_^! =VD!d`TVE]=AMTM_ME^!MV!W]DE]!_W!U=SE!_LE!B=Ê!JW]!UM_MK=_MWVr!_W!=D=[_=_MWV![T=VVMVK!=VD!=B_MWV! in a world that is looking less and less likely to stay within 2°C of global warming” {9MÊ!E_!=Tur! éåçê|u!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! éí !L__[^txxeeeuEBWTWKM\Èy^WTMD=M]EuKW`duJ]xMU[=B_^yD`yBL=VKEUEV_yBTMU=_M\Èy=_UW^[LE]Ey_EU[E]=_`]E^yE_y[]EBM[M_=_MWV^ !y!T=^_!=BBE^ÊD! .=]BL!éåçî! éì !?B_`=TTgr!(`MTTEUW_!L=^!EdEV!^LWeV!_L=_!eE=_LE]!_LEV!BTMU=_E!^BMEVBE^!L=dE!AEEV!DEdETW[ED!^MVBE!çïêë!eM_L!W[E]=_MWV=Tr!UMTM_=]g!{MV!_LE! BWV_Ef_!WJ!_LE!#WTD!9=]|!=VD![WTM_MB=T!KW=T^!{(`MTTEUW_r!éååì|u!! ëì! ! ?`_LW]^!KEVE]=TTg!=^^ÙE!_L=_!_LM^!BW][`^!WJ!SVWeTEDKE!eMTT!AE!`ÊJ`T!_W!D]MdE!=D=[_=_MWVu!6LE! IPCC defines adaptation as “the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its EJJEB_û!*V!LÙ=V!^g^_EU^r!=D=[_=_MWV!ÊES^!_W!UWDE]=_E!W]!=dWMD!L=]U!W]!Ef[TWM_!AEVEJMBM=T! W[[W]_`VM_MEû! *V! ^WUE! V=_`]=T! ^g^_EU^r! LÙ=V! MV_E]dEV_MWV! U=g! J=BMTM_=_E! =DR`^_UEV_! _W! expected climate and its effects” {*2##r!éåçêBr![u!çìëî|u!*V!_LE!^ÙU=]g!JW]![WTMBg!U=SE]^!WJ! _he last assessment report, we can read that “limiting climate change would require ^À^_=V_M=T! =VD! ^`^_=MVED! ]ED`B_MWV^! MV! K]EEVLW`Ê! K=^! EUM^^MWV^! eLMBLr! _WKE_LE]! eM_L! adaptation, can limit climate change risks.[…] Adaptation and mitigation are complement =]g! strategies for reducing and managing the risks of climate change.” {*2##r!éåçê=r![u!î|u!!

9M_L!_LM^!T=^_!]E[W]_r!_LM^!VW_MWV!WJ!=D=[_=_MWV!K=MVED!=!T=]KE]!`VDE]^_=VDMVKu!*VM_M=TTg!TMUM_ED! _W!=DR`^_UEV_^r!M_!VWe!EVBWU[=^Ê^!=!A]W=DE]!]=VKE!WJ![W^^MATE!]E^[WVÊû!*_!=T^W!BWUE^!eM_L! ÊdE]=T!]ET=_ED!BWVBE[_^!^`BL!=^!=D=[_MdE!B=[=BM_g!W]!_]=V^JW]U=_MWV!eM_LMV!_LE!UW]E!KEVE]=T! framework of “iterative risk management”. Simonet analyzed these conceptual advances on =D=[_=_MWV!=B ross the five IPCC reports from 1990 to 2014. He noted that “comprehension of =D=[_=_MWV!L=^!EdWTdED!BWV^MDE]=ATg!^MVBE!M_^!]EBWKVM_MWV!=^!=!]E^[WVÊ!_W!BTMU=_E!BL=VKE!MV! the 90s” with “[…] a shift toward a ‘_]=V^JW]U=_MWV!=D=[_=_MWV ’” approach being observed” {5MUWVE_r!éåçë|u!!

)WeEdE]r!^WBME_=T!W]![WTM_MB=T!`[_=SE!WJ!_LM^!_LM^!MVJW]U=_MWV!M^!J=]!J]WU!AEMVK!^_]=MKL_JW]e=]Du! .=Vg!^BLWT=]^!WAÊ]dE!_L=_!DEBM^MWVymaking “failed: to progress as quickly as once hoped” {+u! 2W]_E]!Ö!$E^^=Mr!éåçí| . “Despite the rapid evolution !=VD!K]WeMVK!BWU[TEfM_g!MV!UWDET^!WJ! ^BMEVBEy[WTMBg! MV_E]=B_MWVr! _LE! ]=_E! =VD! A]E=D_L! WJ! _LE! `Ê! WJ! ^BMEV_MJMB! SVWeTEDKE! MV! EVdM]WVUEV_=T!DEBM^MWVyU=SMVKr!E^[EBM=TTg!]ET=_ED!_W!BTMU=_E!d=]M=AMTM_g!=VD!BL=VKEr!]EU=MV! below expectations” {,M]BLLWJJr! #=]UEV! -EUW^r! Ö! $E^^=Mr! éåçè| . “Evidence suggests such MVdE^_UEV_^! MV! =D=[_=_MWV! ^BMEVBE! L=dE! VW_! VEBE^^=]MTg! _]=V^T=_ED! MV_W! =D=[_=_MWV! implementation” {2]E^_WVr!9E^_=e=gr!Ö!;ÈVr!éåçç| . There is a persistent “gap” between =d=MT=ATE!SVWeTEDKE!WV!BWVÊ\ÈVBE^!WJ!BTMU=_E!BL=VKE!=VD!_LE!WAÊ]dED!]E^[WVÊ!J]WU! ^WBME_g!{"]MTEg!E_!=Tur!éåçës!#=]UEV!-EUW^r!,M]BLLWJJr!Ö!4=U[]=^=Dr!éåçés!'T=KK!Ö!,M]BLLWJJr! éåçîs!,MEU!Ö!?`^_MVr!éåçè|u!!

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ëî! ! AEB=`Ê!D]=eMVK!_LE!]ETEd=V_!MU[TMB=_MWV^!WJ!_LEÊ!]E^`T_^!]=MÊ^!DMJJMB`T_MEû!9L=_!^LW`TD!eE! DW!eM_L!_LM^!SVWeTEDKEr!eL=_!DWE^!M_!DW!_W!`^q!9LEV!^WBM=TMhEDr!M_!AEBWUE^![]WATEU=_MBu!“9E! DM^=K]EE! =AW`_! ^BMEVBE! AEB=`Ê! eE! L=dE! DMJJE]EV_! `VDE]^_=VDMVK^! WJ! _LE! ]ET=_MWV^LM[! WJ! ^BMEV_MJMB!EdMDEVBE!_W!W_LE]!_LMVK^t!_W!eL=_!eE!U=g!]EK=]D!=^!`T_MU=_E!É_]`_LÉr!_W!_LE!e=g^!MV! eLMBL! eE! ]ET=_E! `VBE]_=MV_g! _W! ]M^Sr! =VD! _W! eL=_! eE! AETMEdE! _W! AE! _LE! TEKM_MU=_E! ]WTE! WJ! SVWeTEDKE!MV![WTMBg!U=SMVKu!}uuu~!9E!VEED!_W!=[[]EBM=_E!_L=_!^`BL!SVWeTEDKE!B=V!AE!{[E]L=[^! MVEdM_=ATg!eMTT!AE|!_]=V^JW]UED!MV!_LE![]WBE^^!WJ!TE=dMVK!_LE!T=AW]=_W]g!=VD!EV_E]MVK!_LE!^WBM=T! world” {)`TUEr! éååïr! [u! çåè|u! )`TUE! ^LWe^! LWe! BTMU=_E! BL=VKE! L=^! UWdED! J]WU! AEMVK! []EDWUMV=V_Tg!=![Lg^MB=T![LEVWUEVWV!_W!AEMVK!^MU`T_=VEW`^Tg!=!^WBM=T![LEVWUEVWV!WJJE]MVK! BWV_]=^_MVK!MV_E][]E_=_MWV^!=VD!V=]]=_MdEû!!

5BMEV_MJMB!SVWeTEDKE!=AW`_!BTMU=_E!BL=VKE!BWVdEg^!]E[]E^EV_=_MWV^!=VD!eW]TDdMEe^!_L=_!B=V! be very disruptive or controversial. Richard for instance writes about an “unprecedented posture of awareness of the adaptations of humans to their environment” […]”. !?BBW]DMVK!_W! her, “climate change reminds modern man his forgotten interdependencies”, and “questions human beings over themselves” {4MBL=]Dr!éåçír![u!éï|u!(WD=]D!_=TS^!=AW`_!=D=[_=_MWV!=^!=! relationship of “entanglement” between th E!BTMU=_E!=VD!^WBMWyEBWVWUMB!=VD!V=_`]=T!^g^_EU^! {(WD=]Dr!éåçå|u!!

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6LM^!EVD^!`[!J=dW]MVK!BE]_=MV!_g[E^!WJ!=D=[_=_MWVu!'W]!MV^_=VBEr!,M]BLLWJJ!E_!=Tu!e]M_E!=AW`_!=V! “EJJEB_MdE! U=V=KEUEV_! []WBE^^E^! }eLMBL~! eMTT! AE! M_E]=_MdEr! BWV^`T_=_MdE! =VD! LWTM^_MBr! =VD! above all acknowledge the assumptions embedded in any conclusions” {,M]BLLWJJ!E_!=Tur!éåçè|u!!

ëï! ! 6LM^!_g[E!WJ![W^_`]E!M^!eETT!]EJTEB_ED!MV!J]=UEeW]S^!^`BL!=^!_LE!WVE!WJ![W^_yVW]U=T!^BMEVBEr! suitable to address “wicked problems” !=^!DEJMVED!Ag!4M__ET!=VD!9EAAE]!{4M__ET!Ö!9EAAE]r! çïìè|u!$EdETW[ED!MV!=!BWV_Ef_!WJ![T=VVMVK!y!E^[EBM=TTg!]ETEd=V_!JW]!^WUE!=D=[_=_MWV!M^^È^!y! =VD!T=_E]!KEVE]=TMhED!{#WVSTMVr!éååë|!_LM^!T=AET!eW`TD!=[[Tg!_W![=]_MB`T=]!^M_`=_MWV^r!^`BL!=^! _LWÊ! B]E=_ED! Ag! BTMU=_E! BL=VKEr! eLEVt! []WATEU^! =]E! VW_! `VDE]^_WWD! `V_MT! =J_E]! _LE! JW]U`T=_MWV!WJ!=!]E^[WVÊs![]WATEU^!L=dE!VW!^_W[[MVK!]`TEs!^WT`_MWV^!=]E!VEdE]!]MKL_!W]!e]WVKs! _LE]E!M^!VW!_eW!^MUMT=]!eMBSED![]WATEU^s!EdE]g!^WT`_MWV!M^!WVTg!d=TMD!WVBEs!_LE]E!M^!VW!KMdEV! =T_E]V=_MdE!^WT`_MWVû!!

?^!eE!L=dE!A]MEJTg!^LWeVr!eM_L!BTMU=_E!BL=VKEr!{=|!J=B_^!=]E!WJ_EV!`VBE]_=MVr!{A|!^_=SE^!=]E! LMKLr!{B|!d=TÈ^!=]E!MV!DM^[`_E!=VD!{D|!`]KEV_!DEBM^MWV^!VEED!_W!AE!U=DE!{'`V_WeMBh!Ö!4=dE_hr! çïïès! ,ZVMKr! "Z]ÊVr! Ö! %UUEBLEr! éåçì|u! "EB=`Ê! WJ! _LWÊ! BL=]=B_E]M^_MB^r! M_! L=^! AEEV! analyzed as a “post ynormal” issue {"T=VBL=]Dr!éåççs!$=VSETr!8==KEr!Ö!8=V!DE]!5T`MR^r!éåçìs! ,]=`^^r!5BL@JE]r!Ö!dWV!5_W]BLr!éåçés!2E_E]ÊVr!#=_Lr!)=KEr!,`VÊTE]r!Ö!d=V!DE]!5T`MR^r!éåçç|u! *V!^`BL!=!BWV_Ef_r!_LWÊ!=`_LW]^!=DdWB=_E!JW]!=!]EBWVJMK`]=_MWV!WJ!_LE!^BMEVBEy[WTMBg!MV_E]J=BE! _We=]D^!UW]E!MV_E]DM^BM[TMV=]M_g!=VD!UW]E!_]=V^DM^BM[TMV=]M_g!{MuEu!=!^BMEVBE!W[EV^!WV!d=]MW`^! JW]U^!WJ!SVWeTEDKE|r!UW]E!]EJTEfMdM_g!=VD!=!^_]WVKE]![=]_MBM[=_MWV!WJ!=TT!^_=SELWTDE]û!'W]!$=! #`VL=!=VD!8=VDE]TMVDEV!it is for instance “necess =]g!_W!A`MTD!=!^[=BE!WJ!MV_EK]=_MWV!WJ!V=_`]=T! ^BMEVBE^r!^WBM=T!^BMEVBE^!=VD!LÙ=V!^BMEVBE^!MV!_LE!=V=Tg^M^!WJ!_LE!DgV=UMB^!WJ!=D=[_=_MWV!_W! global changes” {D=!#`VL=!Ö!8=VDE]TMVDEVr!éåçê|u!

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y ?! ^_]WVK! =__EV_MWV! KMdEV! _W! TWB=TyBWV_ exts elucidation with no “on y^MhEyJM_^yall” =[[]W=BL!{.=KV=Vr!éåçå|s! y ?![=]_MBM[=_MWV!J]=UEeW]S!_W!MVdWTdE!]ETEd=V_!^_=SELWTDE]^!{#=]]Whh=r!éåçës!+=^=VWJJr! éååê| éî s!! y ?![]W=B_MdE!=VD!M_E]=_MdE!=[[]W=BL!]ETgMVK!WV!UWVM_W]MVK!=VD!TE=]VMVK!^g^_EU^!UW]E! _L=V!=!BWUU=VDy=VDyBWV_]WT![]WBE^^s!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! éî !4EBEV_!eW]S^!VEdE]_LETE^^!^LWe!_L=_!MU[TEUEV_MVK!^`BL!=[[]W=BLE^!=T^W!MU[TME^!]M^S^!=VD!M^!VW_!=!K`=]=V_g!JW]!^`BBE^^!{+u!2W]_E]!Ö!$E^^=Mr! éåçí|u! íå! ! y 6LE! BWVdMB_MWV! _L=_! we need to “work deliberately ! within imperfections” {8=V! DE]! 5T`MR^r!éåçé| . These approaches call for moving beyond the “uncertainty fallacy”: “in the context of high uncertainty, decision makers should not look for ‘perfect’ forecasts, A`_! ÊES! _W! MU[TEUEV_! SVWeTEDKE! ^g^_EU^! _L=_! MV_EK]=_E! BTMU=_E! []WREB_MWV^! eM_L! W_LE]!SMVD^!WJ!SVWeTEDKE!=VD!_L=_!BWV^MDE]!_LE!U`T_M[TE!^_]E^^W]^!_L=_!^L=[E!_LEM]! decision environment” {#=]UEV!-EUW^!Ö!4WWDr!éåçå| . Richard writes about “accepting MKVW]=VBEr! _LMVSMVK! _W! _LE! `VMV_EVDED! BWVÊ\ÈVBE^ ! WJ! =B_MWVr! MVBT`DMVK! `V[]EDMB_=ATEr! =BBE[_MVK! VW_! _W! AE! =ATE! _W! JW]EÊEr! _W! MU[]WdMÊ! y! EfE]BMÊ^! WJ! Ef[TW]=_MWV!WJ!_LE![W^^MAMTM_ME^Ñ{4MBL=]Dr!éåçír![[u!ïì –ïî|u!$=!#`VL=!=VD!8=VDE]TMVDEV! describe adaptation as a concept which intends ” _W! U=V=KE! _LE! `VBE]_=MV! }=VD~! unconventional” {D=!#`VL=!Ö!8=VDE]TMVDEVr!éåçê|u! y *V!W]DE]!_W!DW!^Wr!_LWÊ!=[[]W=BLE^![]WUW_E!_W!`Ê!BTMU=_E![]WREB_MWV^!=^!LE`]M^_MB! _WWT^!_W!Ef[TW]E![W^^MATE!J`_`]E^!MV^_E=D!WJ![T=VVMVK!JW]!=!`VM\È!]EJE]EVBE!^M_`=_MWVu! 6LEg!J=dW]!=V!Ef[TW]=_W]g!WdE]!=![]EDMB_y_LEVy=B_![]WBE^^!{9E=dE]!E_!=Tur!éåçè| . “For ^WUE!^BLWT=]^r!BWU[TEf!UWDET^!WJ!W[EV!^g^_EU^!=]E!AE^_!dMEeED!=^!LE`]M^_MB!_WWT^! eLMBL!LET[!W`]!`VDE]^_=VDMVK!WJ!eL=_!eE!B=V!WAÊ]dEr!UE=^`]E!W]!E^_MU=_Er!]=_LE]! than ‘truth machines’ which determine our future.” {$E^^=M!E_!=Tur!éååï|u! y Favoring robustness and flexibility as important decision criteria: “Evidence based [WTMBg!L=^!_W!AE!]E[T=BED!Ag!]WA`^_![WTMBgr!eLE]E!]WA`^_VE^^!M^!_E^_ED!eM_L!]E^[EB_!_W! JE=^MAMTM_g! {BWU[=_MAMTM_g! eM_L! []WBE^Ê^! W`_^MDE! LÙ=V! BWV_]WT|s! dM=AMTM_g! {BWU[=_MAMTM_g!eM_L![]WBE^Ê^!`VDE]!LÙ=V!BWV_]WTr!MV!]ET=_MWV!_W!AW_L!_LE!EBWVWUMB! =VD!_EBLVMB=T!DMUEV^MWV^|r!=VD!DE^M]=AMTM_g!DWU=MV!{BWU[=_MAMTM_g!eM_L!=![T`]=TM_g!WJ! normative considerations relevant to a plurality of actors)”. {5=T_ETTMr!(M=U[ME_]Wr!?d=Vr! ?UAMEV_=T^r!Ö!?`_WVWU=r!éåçë|u!

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“Complexity is an important attribute for framing and implementing decision _H9FDIB& KMJ;>NN>N&`Q>MT&CDBC&;JIAD=>I;>a]&1DHKG>Z&R>GG_:JPI=>=&;JIO>SON&DIQJGQDIB&;9PN>&9I=&>AA>;O& ;9I&:>&9==M>NN>=&:T&NOM9DBCOAJMR9M=&GDI>9M&H>OCJ=N]&!JHKGD;9O>=&;JIO>SON&M>LPDM>&BM>9O>M& 9OO>IODJI& OJ& KMJ;>NN& :PO& ;9I& B>I>M9GGT& :>& PIM9Q>G>=Z& KMJQD=DIB& 9I& PGODH9O>& NJGPODJI]& &JR>Q>MZ& RC>I& ;JHKG>S& >IQDMJIH>ION& DIO>M9;O& RDOC& ;JIAGD;ODIB& Q9GP>N& OC>T& :>;JH>& associated with wicked problems. […] In complex situations, sociocultural and cognit DQ>_ behavioral contexts become central to decision making.“ `'.!!Z&ljkn;Z&KK]&ljj –ljka&

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“Previous assessment methods and policy advice have been framed by the assumption that :>OO>M&N;D>I;>&RDGG&G>9=&OJ&:>OO>M&=>;DNDJIN]&#SO>INDQ>&>QD=>I;>&AMJH&OC>&=>;DNDJI&N;D>I;>N& NCJRN&OC9O&RCDG>&BJJ=&N;D>IODAD;&9I=&O>;CID;9G&DIAJMH9ODJI&DN&I>;>NN9MTZ&DO&DN&IJO&NPAAD;D>IOZ& 9I=& =>;DNDJIN& M>LPDM>& ;JIO>SO_9KKMJKMD9O>& =>;DNDJI_support processes and tools. […]” & `'.!!Z&ljkn;Z&K]&ksra]&

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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! èê !“Transport is today a critical support system for the smooth operation of our societies and economies. At the European level, !_LE![WTM_MB=T! ]ETEd=VBE!WJ!_]=V^[W]_!M^!LMKL!=^!=!VEBE^^=]g!MV^_]ÙEV_!JW]!_LE!J=BMTM_=_MWV!WJ!_]=V^yAW`VD=]g!]ET=_MWV^LM[^!=VD!_LE![Lg^MB=T!=VD!EBWVWUMB! MV_EK]=_MWV!eM_LMV!_LE!%7u!#L=VKE^!MV!BTMU=_E!BW`TD!BWU[]WUMÊ!_LE!ÛWW_L!W[E]=_MWV!WJ!W`]!^WBME_ME^!=VD!_LE!EBWVWUgu ”! èë !.B!,MVÊg!(TWA=T!*V^_M_`_E!E^_MU=_E^!KTWA=T!MVJ]=^_]`B_`]E^!VEED^!AE_eEEV!àéuë!{B`]]EV_!Ef[EVÊ^|!=VD!èuè!_]MTTMWV![E]!gE=]! –!êåò!MV! DEdETW[ED!BW`V_]MEû!! íî! ! ^M_`=_MWV^!eM_L!^g^_EU^!=VD!B=[M_=T!^_WBS^!_L=_!eW`TD!VW_!AE!=ATE!_W!J=BE!W]!_W!=D=[_!_W!BTMU=_E! BL=VKEû!.=Vg!MVJ]=^_]`B_`]E!]ET=_ED!DEBM^MWV^!=]E!MVDEED!L=]DTg!]EdE]^MATE!=VD!B]E=_E![=_Ly DE[EVDEVBMEû!0V!_LE!W_LE]!L=VDr!DEBM^MWV^!_W!AE!U=DE!_WD=g!=]E!=V!W[[W]_`VM_g!_W!=VBLW]! dM]_`W`^!=D=[_=_MWV![=_Le=gû!!

“Outside rare moments of creation or &H9EJM&OM9INDODJINZ&DIAM9NOMP;OPM>N&;C9IB>&OJJ&NGJRGT& AJM&HJNO&JA&PN&OJ&IJOD;>[&OC>&NO9O>GT&K9;>&JA&DIAM9NOMP;OPM9G&;C9IB>&DN&K9MO&JA&OC>DM&M>9NNPMDIB& stability. They exist, as it were, chiefly in historical time.” `#=R9M=NZ&ljjma&

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6LE!%7!=DW[_ED!M_^!?D=[_=_MWV!^_]=_EKg!MV!éåçé!{%`]W[E=V!#WUUM^^MWVr!éåçèA|!“to contribute _W!=!UW]E!]E^MTMEV_!%`]W[E!=_!V=_MWV=Tr!]EKMWV=T!=VD!TWB=T!TEdET^r!_LE]EAg!JWB`^MVK!WV!EV=ATMVK! .EUAE]! 5_=_E^! =VD! TWB=T! KWdE]VUEV_^! _W! _=SE! =B_MWV! =VD! _W! U=MV^_]E=U! =D=[_=_MWV! MV_W! different policy areas”. This strategy has specific actions ! JW]! _]=V^[W]_^! {?B_MWV! ì|! =VD! _]=V^dE]^=T!=B_MWV^!]ETEd=V_!JW]!_LM^!ÊB_W]!{EuKu!?B_MWV!ê!WV!]EÊ=]BL!W]!?B_MWV!î!WV!MV^`]=VBE|u! 6LE!%`]W[E=V!#WUUM^^MWV!=T^W!DEdETW[ED!Ê]ME^!WJ!K`MDETMVE^!_W!U=MV^_]E=U!_LM^!BWVBE]V!MV! U=RW]! ÊB_W]=T! [WTMBME^! =VD! =B_MWV^! {%`]W[E=V! #WUUM^^MWVr! éåçè=s! %`]W[E=V! %VdM]WVUEV_! ?KEVBgr!éåçìA|! TMSE![]WREB_^!U=V=KEUEV_! {%`]W[E=V!#WUUM^^MWVr!éåççr!éåçê|!W]!BTMU=_Ey []WWJMVK!WJ!U=RW]!MVdE^_UEV_^!{%`]W[E=V!#WUUM^^MWVr!éåçér!éåçë|u!

This “mainstreaming” approach is visible in policies such as the TEN y6!2]WK]=UUE!E^_=ATM^LED! _W!^`[[W]_!_LE!BWV^_]`B_MWV!=VD!`[K]=DE!WJ!_]=V^[W]_!MVJ]=^_]`B_`]E!=B]W^^!_LE!%7u!*VDEEDr! this program explicitly mentions adaptation: “during infrastructure planning, Member States =VD! W_LE]! []WREB_! []WUW_E]^! ^LW`TD! KMdE! DÈ! BWV^MDE]=_MWV! _W! _LE! ]M^S! =^Ê^ÛEV_^! =VD! =D=[_=_MWV!UE=^`]E^!=DE\`=_ETg!MU[]WdMVK!]E^MTMEVBE!_W!BTMU=_E!BL=VKE!=VD!EVdM]WVUEV_=T! disasters (§34, Preamble; Article 35)” {%`]W[E=V!%VdM]WVUEV_!?KEVBgr!éåçêr![u!çï|u!!

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íï! ! ?_!_LE!V=_MWV=T!TEdETr!=D=[_=_MWV!WJ!_]=V^[W]_!M^!^_MTT!=_!_LE!MVM_M=T!^_=KEr!=VD!M_!M^!VW_!gE_!=!BEV_]=T! M^^È!JW]!V=_MWV=T!=D=[_=_MWV!^_]=_EKMEû!/EdE]_LETE^^r!^WUE!BW`V_]ME^!=UWVK!eLMBL!_LE!7,r! ']=VBEr!?`^_]M=r!(E]U=Vg!=VD!5eM_hE]T=VD!MVBT`DED!_LM^!ÊB_W]!MV!_LEM]!=B_MWV![T=Vû!*V!M_^!éåçê! ]E[W]_!WV!=D=[_=_MW n of transport in Europe, the EEA noted that “the transport sector seems _W!AE!dE]g!]EBE[_MdE!WV!_LM^!_W[MBr!=VD!]EÊ=]BL!=VD!d`TVE]=AMTM_g!=^Ê^ÛEV_^!WV!_]=V^[W]_! ^g^_EU^!DEdETW[!]=_LE]!\`MBSTg!WVBE!_LE!_]=V^[W]_!ÊB_W]!M_ÊTJ!AEBWUE^!=B_MdEr!`^`=TTg!KWMVK! well beyond the initial mandate in national adaptation strategies and plans” {%`]W[E=V! %VdM]WVUEV_!?KEVBgr!éåçêr![u!éè|u!

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ìë! ! adaptation. We hardly know what “successful” adaptation means or the conditions necessary or sufficient for evaluating successful adaptation” {9M^E!E_!=Tur!éåçê|u!

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“Within the climate change adaptation research community there is a growing tendency OJ&=DN;PNN&9=9KO9ODJI&PNDIB&OC>&G9IBP9B>&JA&OM9INAJMH9ODJIZ&M>AG>;ODIB&9&N>IN>&OC9O&OC>& ;PMM>IO&NO9OPN&LPJ&RDGG&IJO&N>;PM>&9&NPNO9DI9:G>&APOPM>Z&>NK>;D9GGT&DI&GDBCO&JA&OC>&G9;F&JA& sufficient progress to mitigate the causes of anthropogenic climate change”. `*JI=N9G>Z& .MDIBG>Z&f&2PMI>MZ&ljkoa]&

6]=V^JW]U=_MWV!M^!]E\`M]ED!eLEV!BWUAMV=_MWV!WJ!BTMU=_E!BL=VKE^!=VD!d`TVE]=AMTM_ME^!EfBEED^! the “coping yrange” of the system {,=_E^r!6]=dM^r!Ö!9MTA=VS^r!éåçé|!=VD!B]W^Ê^!d`TVE]=AMTM_g! _L]E^LWTDû!*_!MU[TME^!UW]E!B]E=_MdM_g!_W!MU=KMVE!=T_E]V=_MdE![=_Le=g^! (O’Brien, 2012, 2016; 9MÊ!E_!=Tur!éåçê|u!$ETMAE]=_E!_]=V^JW]U=_MWV!WJ_EV!BWUE^!eM_L!=!JW]e=]DyTWWSMVK!=__M_`DEu!*_! is about “designing the future” (O’Brien, 2012) u!

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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ëî !5/#'!ô!4''!{_LE!DM^_MVB_!BWU[=Vg!eLMBL!WeVED!=VD!U=MV_=MVED!_LE!']EVBL!V=_MWV=T!]=MTe=g!VE_eW]S!AEJW]E!M_!AEB=UE!5/#'!4GÊ=`|! ëï !6eW!^À^MDM=]ME^!WJJE]MVK!Ê]dMBE^!WJ!J]EMKL_!Ö!TWKM^_MB^!{(GWDM^|!=VD!`]A=V!_]=V^[W]_!{,GWTM^|! îï! ! The focus on “potential consequences of climate change relevant for SNCF”, “SNCF exposure”, “potential consequences on the activities of the company”, the “current adaptive capacity” and ‘residual impacts not yet handled by the company” indicates that the DRAIL team chose _W! MU[TEUEV_! =V! =[[]W=BL! BEV_E]ED! WV! _LE! W]K=VMh=_MWV ’s ! d`TVE]=AMTM_g! =VD! []E[=]=_MWVu! ?BBW]DMVK! _W! _LM^! =[[]W=BLr! =D=[_=_MWV! M^! UW]E! =AW`_! SVWeMVK! =AW`_! M_ÊTJ! _L=V! SVWeMVK! =AW`_!eL=_!^BMEVBE!_ETT^!=AW`_!_LE!BTMU=_Eu!

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“b1,!$& PI=>MNO9I=Nc& LPDO>& R>GG& RC9O& OC>& DHK9;ON& JA& I>R& R>9OC>M& ;JI=DODJIN& JI& DON& 9;ODQDOD>N]&2C>&NOP=D>N&9GM>9=T&;9MMD>=&JPO&:T&AJM>DBI&M9DGR9T&JK>M9OJMNZ&OC>&9I9GTNDN&JA&OC>& JK>M9ODIB&;JI=DODJIN&>I;JPIO>M>=&:T&OC>&JK>M9OJMN&JA&;JPIOMD>N&RDOC&9&R9MH>MZ&;JG=>M&JM& R>OO>M&;GDH9O>Z&9N&R>GG&9N&A>>=:9;FN&JA&OC>&DI;D=>ION&;GDH9OD;&;JI=DODJIN&>SK>MD>I;>=&:T& SNCF in the past years make it possible to draw up a list of their implications”. &

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“Network Rail has come a long way in understanding the impact of weather events on the M9DGR9TZ&CJR>Q>MZ&R>&9M>&NODGG&DI&OC>&>9MGT&NO9B>N&JA&JPM&EJPMI>T&OJ&PI=>MNO9I=&9I=&LP9IODAT& OC>&DHK9;O&JA&;GDH9O>&;C9IB>&9I=&OC>&;JNO&9NNJ;D9O>=&RDOC&9&;C9IBDIB&MDNF&KMJADG>e&`,>ORJMF& 09DGNZ&ljkqa]&&

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! (b) Network Rail’s “four pillars of resilience” #

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These initiatives are also consistent with the “performance” narrative we described in the []EdMW`^!^EB_MWVu!6LEg!BWVdE]KE!eM_L!U=RW]!DEdETW[UEV_^!L=[[EVMVK!MV!_LE!BWU[=Vg!TMSE!_LE! B]E=_MWV!WJ!=!VEe!DE[=]_UEV_!MV!éåçê!_W!DE=T!eM_L!DMKM_=T!_]=V^JW]U=_MWV^!=_!_LE!K]W`[!TEdET ìè u! This direction is hosting the weather convention and in charge of “scaling y`[!eE=_LE]y]ET=_ED! innovations to improve business processes.” !

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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ìî !*V!_LE!B=Ê!WJ!-/.2!_LM^![]WBE^^!M^![=]_MB`T=]Tg!TWVKu!9E!JMVD!_LE!dE]g!JM]^_!UEV_MWV!WJ!_LM^!VEe!TMVE!MV!_LE!AEKMVVMVK!WV!_LE!çïïå^!=VD!MJ!_LE! []WREB_!^`BBEED^r!_LE!JM]^_!_]=MV^!eMTT!BM]B`T=_E!AE_eEEV!éåéë!=VD!éåèåu! ìï !6LE! T=e!/W64E!{VÜéåçëyïïç ) of 7 August 2015 “portant nouvelle organisation territoriale de la République” strengthens this position. 9M_L! _LM^!AMTTr!_LE!4EKMWV^!AEB=UE!_LE!`VM\È!_]=JJMB!=`_LW]M_g!JW]!MV_E]y`]A=V!_]=V^M_u!! îå !&C@CT;VHPO#O;VHPO;MA#@AU#;UUP>H;VHPOU#@oWU;FATU#@AU#VT;OURPTVU ! îç !eeeuTMKVEyUWV_[ETTME]y[E][MKV=VuBWUx[=KE^xTEy[]WBE^^`^yDE_`DE^ !y!T=^_!=BBE^ÊD!$EBEUAE]!éåçì! îé !.W]E!WV!_LM^![]WBED`]E!MV!']=VBE!y!#Ju! L__[^txxeeeuDEA=_[ÀTMBuJ]!–!T=^_!=BBE^ÊD!+`VE!éåçî! ççï! ! éu 2]ETMUMV=]g!_EBLVMB=T!^_`DME^!=VD!=![L=Ê!WJ!BWVBE]_=_MWV!eM_L!^_=SELWTDE]^!WV!_LE! []W[WÊD!T=gW`_!=VD!J`VB_MWV=T!BLWMBE^!{BWVVEB_MWV^r!VEe!^_=_MWV^r![=^ÊVKE]xJ]EMKL_! W[_MWV^r!E_Bu|!AE_eEEV!éåçå!=VD!éåçíu!*_!]E^`T_ED!MV!=!UW]E!DE_=MTED!çååyçéå!UE_E]^! T=gW`_!=[[]WdED!Ag!=!UMVM^_E]M=T!DEBM^MWV!WV!+=V`=]g!éåçí!{'MK`]E!êyê|u!! èu #WU[TE_MWV!WJ!=DDM_MWV=T!^_`DME^! –!E^[EBM=TTg!MU[=B_!=^Ê^ÛEV_^!=VD!=V=Tg^M^!]E\`M]ED! _L]W`KL!_LE!e=_E]y=B_ îè !{5/#'!4GÊ=`r!éåçê|!–!VEBE^^=]g!_W!the “declaration of public utility” procedure, i.e. the formal ! ]EBWKVM_MWV! _L=_! _LE! []WREB_! L=^! [ÀTMB! AEVEJM_^! AEJW]E!_LE!BWV^_]`B_MWV!B=V!=B_`=TTg!^_=]_ îê u!

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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! îè !.MVM^_E]M=T!#M]B`T=]!$%x5$(%x"2*$2'y!##(!VÜ!êéí! –!éååér!+`Tg!éê _L !L__[txxBM]B`T=M]EûTEKMJ]=VBEuKW`duJ]x[DJxéååïxåèxBM]zéìçîêu[DJ !y!T=^_! =BBE^ÊD!$EBEUAE]!éåçì! îê !?^!eE!e]M_E!_LM^!BL=[_E]!{.=g!éåçî|!_LE![]WREB_!M^!^_MTT!MV!^_=VDyAg!JW]!JMV=VBM=T!=VD![WTM_MB=T!]E=^WV^t!M_!M^!VW_!_W_=TTg!J`VDED!=VD!_LE!']EVBL! KWdE]VUEV_!DEBT=]ED!=!UW]=_W]MÙ!WJ!U=RW]!UEK=y[]WREB_^!_W!]EdMEe!M_^!MVdE^_UEV_![WTMBgu!?V!WVKWMVK!TEKM^T=_MdE!^LW`TD![]MW]M_MhE!_LE!J`_`]E! []WREB_^!=VD!]EDM]EB_!=V!MU[W]_=V_![=]_!WJ!_LE!EJJW]_!WV!_LE!]EVEe=T!WJ!EfM^_MVK!=^Ê_û! îë eeeuTMKVEyUWV_[ETTME]y[E][MKV=VuBWUx^M_E^xTMKVEyUWV_[ETTME]y[E][MKV=VuBWUxJMTE^x]JJxDWBzDEzBWUzDUèzLDu[DJ ! y! T=^_! =BBE^ÊD! .=g! éåçî! çéå! ! -POVRAMMHAT#;O@#0ATRHFO;O !{4''r!éååï|u!#WUUM^^MWVED!Ag!_LE![]WREB_!U=V=KE]r!_LM^!W]MKMV=T! assessment is regularly mentioned by all the project’s stakeholders including SNCF Réseau, users’ associations and local authorities. !

An “independent expert” conducted the study. Although he has sometimes been confused eM_L!=!^BMEV_M^ t “of the IPCC”, this expert was not a researcher but a specialist of environmental M^^È^!JW]UE]Tg!eW]SMVK!JW]!_LE!V=_MWV=T!=DUMVM^_]=_MWVu!?^!MVDMB=_ED!WV!_LE!]E[W]_r!.MBLET! .W`^Ê_! e=^! =! JW]UE]! []E^MDEV_! WJ! _LE! ']EVBL! V=_MWV=T! EVdM]WVUEV_! =VD! EVE]Kg! =KEVBg! {?$%.%! –!çïïéyïê|r!WJ!_LE!MV_E]UMVM^_E]M=T!K]W`[!WV!K]EEVLW`Ê!EJJEB_!{çïïìyéååé|!_LEV!WJ! _LE!']EVBL!BWUUM__EE!JW]!_LE!2]E[=]=_MWV!WJ!_LE!9W]TD!5ÙUM_!WV!5`^_=MV=ATE!$EdETW[UEV_! {éååé|u!)E!=T^W!Ê]dED!=^!=!5_=_E!JMV=VBM=T!WJJMBE]!MV!BL=]KE!WJ!5/#'u!)M^!]E[W]_!M^!ïî![=KE^!TWVK! =VD! M^! []MVBM[=TTg! A=ÊD! WV! =! ^_=_E! WJ! _LE! =]_! WV! _LE! EfM^_MVK! SVWeTEDKE! ]EK=]DMVK! _LE! d`TVE]=AMTM_g!_W!_LE!EfM^_MVK!ÊB_MWV!WJ!_LE!VE_eW]S!_W!BTMU=_E!BL=VKEu!*_!UEV_MWV^!ÊdE]=T! MU[=B_^!A`_!EdEV_`=TTg!JWB`^Ê^!WV!Ê=yTEdET!]MÊt!

e5>& RDGG& G>9Q>& 9ND=>Z& 9AO>M& C9QDIB& M>;9GG>=& OC>HZ& LP>NODJIN& ;GJN>GT& M>G9O>=& OJ& M9DGR9T& O>;CIJGJBT&NP;C&9N&OCJN>&JA&OM9;FN&=DG9O9ODJI&DI=P;>=&:T&O>HK>M9OPM>N&DI;M>9N>&b]]]c[&JM& M>NDNO9I;>&JA&;9O>I9MD>N&OJ&NOMJIB&RDI=N]&2C>N>&KMJ:G>HN&=J&IJO&N>>H&JPO&JA&M>9;C&JA&OC>& M>BPG9M&DHKMJQ>H>ION&DI&OC>&N9A>OT&JA&DINO9GG9ODJIN&b]]]c]&'O&DN&JI&OC>&DIAM9NOMP;OPM>&DON>GA&OC9O& KMJ:G>HN&H9T&9KK>9M]&2C>&DIAM9NOMP;OPM>&DN&H9DIGT&>SKJN>=&OJ&>MJNDJIZ&NP:H>MNDJI&9I=& AGJJ=DIB&9N&R>GG&9N&OC>&EJDIO&>AA>;ON&9I=&OC>&NDHPGO9I>DOT&JA&OC>N>&KC>IJH>I9]&-I>&;9I& 9NNPH>&9N&Q>MT&KMJ:9:G>&OC>&;JIODIP9ODJI&JA&N>9&G>Q>G&MDN>&9I=&DON&;JIN>LP>I;>N&=PMDIB&OCDN& century […].”&K]lr&e%>I>M9G&;JIO>SOe&

6LE! ^_`Dg!^ÙU=]MhE^!eL=_!eE!SVEe!=J_E]!_LE!*2##!JW`]_L!=^Ê^ÛEV_!]E[W]_!{éååì|!=VD! assumes “about 1 meter” of sea level rise at the end of the century in order to consider a wide ^[EB_]Ù!WJ!]M^Su!

The third section of the report draws a landscape of the risks associated with a “business as usual” climate scenario. It describes what could happen to the ![]EÊV_!TMVE!AEB=`Ê!WJ!^_W]U! ^`]KE^r!e=dE^r!E]W^MWV^r!^ÀUE]^MWVr!BWV_MVEV_=T!JTWWD^!W]!_LE!BWVBWUM_=VBE!WJ!EdEV_û!6LE! JW`]_L!ÊB_MWV!KMdE^!_LE!]E^`T_^!WJ!=!d`TVE]=AMTM_g!=V=Tg^M^!WJ!_LE![]EÊV_!TMVE!DEBWU[WÊD!MV! ^Àysections. A table localizes “hotspots” and characterizes existing, coming and possible J`_`]E!]M^Sû!îïSU!W`_!WJ!çíé!=]E!T=AETTED!=^!d`TVE]=ATEu!4EBWUUEVD=_MWV^!_W!MU[]WdE!_LE! ^M_`=_MWV!=]E![]W[WÊD!MV!_LE!JMJ_L!ÊB_MWVu!6LEg!MVBT`DE!_LE!VEED!JW]!SVWeTEDKE!A`MTDMVKr! E^[EBM=TTg!_L]W`KL!]EKMWV=T!BTMU=_E!UWDETTMVKr!=VD!=V!MU[]WdED!KWdE]V=VBE!WJ!TWB=T!BTMU=_E! =D=[_=_MWVu!! çéç! ! 6LEÊ!]E^`T_^!L=dE!JM]^_!=VD!JW]EUW^_!AEEV!`ÊD!=^!=V!=DDM_MWV=T!ETEUEV_!_W!R`^_MJg!eLg!=!VEe! TMVE!M^!VEBE^^=]g!JW]!_LE!]EKMWVt!

e5>& M>9GGT& RJI=>M>=Z& =PMDIB& OC>& KP:GD;& =>:9O>\& =J& R>& I>>=& 9& I>R& GDI>Y& 5>& C9=& OJ& =>HJINOM9O>&OC9O&DO&R9N&I>;>NN9MT&9I=&RCT&OC>&=>Q>GJKH>IO&JA&OC>&>SDNODIB&GDI>&R9N&IJO& 9I&9=>LP9O>&M>NKJIN>&OJ&OC>&9H:DODJIN&JA&OC>&O>MMDOJMT&9I=&OJ&OC>&;JHDIB&;C9GG>IB>N]&'I& this respect, we considered the option of adapting the existing infrastructure” –&LPJO>& AMJH&9I&DIO>MQD>R&RDOC&1,!$&0@N>9P&NO9AA]&&

6LE!SEg!UE^^=KE!_LE!^_=SELWTDE]^!_WWS!LWUEr!MVBT`DMVK!5/#'!4GÊ=`!e=^!_L=_!_LE!EfM^_MVK! TMVE!eW`TD!VW_!]EU=MV!=!dM=ATE!W[_MWV!MV!_LE!TWVK!_E]Ur!AEB=`Ê!WJ!Ê=!TEdET!]MÊu!#WVÊ\ÈV_Tgr! =^!_LE]E!M^!VW!=T_E]V=_MdE!]W`_E!WV!_LM^!^_]`B_`]MVK!=fM^!BWVVEB_MVK!']=VBE!=VD!5[=MVr!=!VEe! TMVE!AEBWUE^!E^ÊV_M=Tu!!

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“Of course, we considere =&9&HJ=>MIDU9ODJI&N;>I9MDJ&:PO&OC>T&b1,!$&0@N>9Pc&H9SDHDU>=& OC>&>NODH9O>&JA&;JNON&RDOC&9GHJNO&IJ&K>MAJMH9I;>&DI;M>9N>]&?O&OC>&>I=&JA&OC>&=9TNZ&OCDN& option was close to 2bi€. It was the absurd, repellent scenario” Quote from an interview RDOC&9I&9NNJ;D9ODJI&JA&OM9INKJMON&PN>MN]&

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#TMU=_E!^`]J=BED!=K=MV!T=_E]!MV!_LE![]WBE^^r!eM_LMV!_LE!MU[=B_!^_`DME^![]E[=]ED!JW]!_LE![ÀTMB! MV\`M]g! WV! _LE! M^^È! WJ! JTWWDMVK! ]M^Sû! ?BBW]DMVK! _W! =! ]EBEV_! EdWT`_MWV! WJ! _LE! WJJMBM=T! ]E\`M]EUEV_^! –!=]_MBTE!4uçééyë!WJ!_LE!%VdM]WVUEV_=T!#WDE! –!MU[=B_!^_`DME^!L=dE!VWe!_W!]E[W]_! about the "project impacts’ on climate (GHG emissions) and the project vulnerability to BTMU=_E!BL=VKEÑu!6LM^!e=^!\`M_E!VEe!JW]!_LE![]WREB_!U=V=KE]^!eLW!L=D!VW![]EdMW`^!Ef[E]MEVBE! VW]!^g^_EU=_MB!UE_LWD!_W!DW!^Wu!6LE!^=UE!\È^_MWV!UMKL_!=[[E=]! –!MJ!_LE![]WREB_![=^Ê^!_W! _LE!VEf_!^_=KE! –!JW]!BLWW^MVK!_LE!JTWWD!BWEJJMBMEV_!`ÊD!JW]!DE^MKVMVK!D]=MV=KE!^g^_EU^!=VD! U=RW]!A]MDKE^!=VD!BWU[Tg!eM_L!_LE!]EK`T=_MWV!WV!e=_E]!=VD!EVdM]WVUEV_=T!]M^S^ îì u!?![]EdMW`^! []WREB_ îî r!BWU[TE_ED!MV!éåçì!MV!_LE!^=UE!4EKMWV!eLE]E!#EdEVWT îï !E[M^WDE^!B=`Ê!]=[MD!JTWWD^r! J=BED!_LM^![]WATEUu!"EB=`Ê!WJ!EdWT`_MWV^!MV!_LE!EVdM]WVUEV_r!MVBT`DMVK!`]A=VMh=_MWV!{^WMT! Ê=TMVK|!=VD!BTMU=_E!BL=VKEr!T=]KE]!BWEJJMBMEV_^!L=D!_W!AE!`ÊD!=VD!KEVE]=_ED!^MKVMJMB=V_!Ef_]=y BW^_û!?BBW]DMVK!_W!^WUE!WJ!_LE!^_=SELWTDE]^!_W!_LM^!W_LE]![]WREB_r!_LM^!=DDM_MWV=T![]EB=`_MWV! M^!VW_!=Te=g^!]ETEd=V_!A`_!L=]DTg!DM^B`^ÊDu!?^!eE!JMV=TMhE!_LM^!BL=[_E]r!{.=g!éåçî|!_LE!-/.2! []WREB_!L=^!VW_!gE_!]E=BLED!_LM^![L=Ê!WJ!DM^B`^^MWVu &&

e?& K9MOD;PG9MDOT& JA& OC>& M>BDJIZ& J:QDJPNGTZ& 9M>& OC>& !>Q>IJG& KC>IJH>I9& 9I=& OC>& MDNFN& JA& AGJJ=N]&1JH>&K>JKG>&9M>&9AM9D=&OC9O&OC>&I>R&GDI>&:>;JH>N&9&NJMO&JA&=9H&9I=&DI;M>9N>&OC>& MDNF&JA&AGJJ=DIB&DI&OC>&KG9DI]&-:QDJPNGTZ&R>&;JI=P;O>=&9GG&OC>&NOP=D>N&OJ&=>NDBI&9&KMJE>;O&OC9O& KM>Q>ION&OCDN&MDNF&b]]]cZ&OCDN&DN&JPM&G>DOHJODQ]&2C>&9POCJMDOD>N&RDGG&;C>;F&9GG&OC>&=>NDBI&;CJD;>N& OJ&>INPM>&R>&APGGT&;JHKGT&RDOC&OC>&M>BPG9ODJI&RCD;C&DN&CDBCGT&=>H9I=DIB&M>B9M=DIB&OCDN& issue”. Quotes from a public intervention of E.Parent _&C>9=&JA&OC>&KMJE>;O&H9I9B>H>IO& O>9H&9O&1,!$&0@N>9P& –&=PMDIB&OC>&;JI;>MO9ODJI&KC9N>]&&

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“Whether this type of incidents occur five or ten times a year, it is already significant and R>& I>>=& OJ& ADI=& NJGPODJINZ& > ven if the frequency does not increase” Quote from an DIO>MQD>R&RDOC&1,!$&NO9AA]&

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“As long as we manage to deal with each individual incident, we don’t question our practices... may it the best thing to do.” Quote from an interview with /+!#% NO9AA]&&

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XT Workshops’ objective and methods (

9W]S^LW[^! =VD! JWB`^! K]W`[^! =]E! BWUUWV! ]EÊ=]BL! DEdMBE^! _W! EV=ATE! K]W`[! MV_E]=B_MWV!=VD!]EdE=T!BWTTEB_MdE!DgV=UMB^!{#L=UAE]^r!éååé|u!6LEg![]WdWSE!]E=B_MWV^!AE_eEEV! MVDMdMD`=T!=B_W]^s!U=SE!BWVVEB_MWV^!AE_eEEV!M^^Èû!6LEg!U=SE!=__M_`DE^!UW]E!=[[=]EV_!=VD! B]E=_E!UWUEV_^!WJ!]EJTEfMdM_g!{"T=VBL=]Dr!éåçç|u!?UWVK!]EÊ=]BLE^!WV!BTMU=_E!=D=[_=_MWVr! eW]S^LW[^!=]E!J]E\ÈV_Tg!`ÊD!_W!Ef[TW]E!BTMU=_E!BL=VKE!BWVÊ\ÈVBE^!{#WTWUAE]_r!éåçís! Corre, Dandin, L’Hôte, & Besson, 2015; Tissot et al., 2016) çåì s! _W! J=BMTM_=_E! _LE! DM=TWKÈ! AE_eEEV!^BMEV_M^_^!=VD!DEBM^MWV^!U=SE]^!{,=VE!E_!=Tur!éåçês!+u!2W]_E]!Ö!$E^^=Mr!éåçì|!=VD!EdEV! _W!BWyDE^MKV!=D=[_=_MWV!^_]=_EKME^!{)==^VWW_!E_!=Tur!éåçè|u!5WUE!WJ!_LE!eW]S^LW[^!]E[W]_ED! MV!_LE!TM_E]=_`]E çåî !=]E!=B_MWVy]EÊ=]BL!DEdMBE^s!_LEg!MV_EVD!_W![]WdWSE!BL=VKE^!MV!_LE!^g^_EU!

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&“For two years we have not weeded at the right moments. [...] The leaves fall in December 9I=&OC>M>&9M>&=MJPBCON&DI&$>:MP9MT]&b]]]c&1JZ&RC>I&R>&=J&9&OM>9OH>IO&DI&?KMDG&DOdN&PN>G>NN]&'O& RJPG=&:>&I>;>NN9MT&OJ&=J&DO&9AO>M&OC>&M9DIN&JA&(PI>&RC>M>9N&OC>&I9ODJI9G&OM9DIN&DN&KG9II>=& AJM&?KMDG_May, it is too early. […]. But we cannot program differently. With current industrial KMJ;>NN&JA&Q>B>O9ODJI&;JIOMJG&RDOC&R>>=DIB&OM9DIN&N>O&9O&OC>&I9ODJI9G&G>Q>GZ&R>&;9IIJO&ADI>_ OPI>Z&R>&;9IIJO&=J&DO&;9N>&:T&;9N>]&+9T:>&R>&NCJPG=&RJMF&9O&OC>&M>BDJI9G&G>Q>G&OJ&=>9G& RDOC&DO]&2C>&Q>B>O9ODJI&;9IIJO&:>&H9I9B>=&9O&OC>&I9ODJI9G&G>Q>G&9ITHJM>&RDOC&R>9OC>M& C9U9M=N&9I=&Q9MD9ODJIN&DI&N>9NJI9GDOT&R>&K>M;>DQ>Z&9O&G>9NO&DI&*9IBP>=J;&0JPNNDGGJI]&b]]]c&'OdN& :>>I&OCM>>&T>9MNZ&OC9O&JPM&M>BDJI9G&OM9DI&C9N&OJ&H9F>&9&N>;JI=&K9NN&:>;9PN>&OC>&ADMNO&R9N& PN>G>NN]&b]]]c&5>&NKM>9=&OJIN&JA&BGTKCJN9O>Z&DO&;JNON&HJI>T&9I=&R>&9M>&IJO&Q>MT&>AA>;ODQ>&DI& Languedoc Roussillon at the moment.” &

6LM^!Ef=U[TE!^LWe^!_L=_!^WUE_MUE^r!M_!M^!eLEV!JWB`^MVK!WV!d=]M=AMTM_g!UW]E!_L=V!_]EVD^!_L=_! BTMU=_E!BL=VKE!]E=TTg!^_=]_^!\È^_MWVMVK!B`]]EV_!U=V=KEUEV_![]WBE^Êû!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ççå !#Ju!T=^_!=[[EVDMfu!v!#E!\È![E`_!VW`^!=[[]EVD]E!TE!B=^!DE!T=!KE^_MWV!de la végétation sur l’adaptation au changement climatique pour 5/#'!wu!$G[WÈ^!{éåçî|u!2ÀTMB=_MWV!>!dEVM]r!4EdÈ!(GVG]=TE!DE^!#LEUMV^!DE!'E]u! çêî! ! -I8GH=CB=B;%A4B4;8A8BH%DC@=6=8G%4B7%;I=78@=B8G%4B7%F4=G=B;%GHF4H8;=6%=GGI8G%%

5ÙUE]!LE=_e=dE^!=]E!WVE!WJ!_LE!Ef_]EUE!EdEV_^!eM_L!_LE!UW^_!Ê]MW`^!MU[TMB=_MWV^!JW]!5/#'! =B_MdM_MEû!6LEg!L=dE!_EBLVMB=T!BWVÊ\ÈVBE^! –!Efu!]=MT^!A`BSTMVK!MU[TgMVK!_W!_EU[W]=]g!]ED`BE! trains’ speed {%`]W[E=V!%VdM]WVUEV_!?KEVBgr!éåçês!'E]]=V_M!E_!=Tur!éåçìs!+=]W^heE^SM!E_!=Tur! éåçè|u!6LEg!=T^W!L=dE!UW]E!W]K=VMh=_MWV=T!=VD!LÙ=V!BWVÊ\ÈVBE^!=JJEB_MVK!AW_L!eW]SE]^! =VD! `Ê]^! BWUJW]_! =VD! LE=T_Lu! 6LEg! =]E! =! [W_EV_M=T! ^W`]BE! WJ! [E]_`]A=_MWV! =VD! B]M^Mû! 'W]! MV^_=VBEr!$ÀW^_!DE^B]MAE^!LWer!AEB=`Ê!WJ!`VAE=]=ATE!LE=_!WVAW=]D!D`]MVK!=!^LW]_!_]=JJMB! MV_E]]`[_MWV!MV!=!^À`]A=V!_]=MV!VE=]!_LE!BM_g!WJ!2=]M^r!_]=dETE]^!KW_!WJJ!_LE!_]=MV!B=`^MVK!=! []WTWVKED!_]=JJMB!MV_E]]`[_MWV!JW]!^=JE_g!]E=^WV^!{?A]=UWdMBMr!éåççs!$ÀW^_r!éåçì|u!$M^B`^^MVK! =AW`_! _LE! [W^^MATE! ]EB`]]EVBE! WJ! ^M_`=_MWV^! _L=_! =]E! B`]]EV_Tg! BWV^MDE]ED! =^! EfBE[_MWV=T! \È^_MWVED!_LE!=AMTM_g!WJ!B`]]EV_!B]M^M^!U=V=KEUEV_!K`MDETMVE^!_W!eM_L^_=VD!_LE!_E^_!WJ!_MUEu! )E]E!=]E!^WUE!WJ!_LE!\È^_MWV^!]MÊV!D`]MVK!_LE!eW]S^LW[t!!

“It is up to the company to decide if we must have trains running as scheduled despite >S;>KODJI9G&;JI=DODJINY&?O&NJH>&KJDIO&R>&HPNO&:>&9:G>&OJ&9INR>M&IJ]&5C>I&OM9DIN&;9IIJO& ;DM;PG9O>&OC>T&;9IIJO]&'&OCDIF&R>&I>>=&OJ&DIO>BM9O>&OCDN&K9M9H>O>M&DI&JPM&JK>M9ODJIN]&'OdN& GDF>&OC9O]&2CDN&NPHH>M&RC>I&DO&R9N&pjg!&DI&OC>&31Z&KG9I>N&=D=&IJO&O9F>&JAA]&5C9O&=J&TJP& R9IO&OJ&=JY&'N&DO&RJMOC&=JDIB&M>N>9M;C&OJ&MPI&>IBDI>N&9O&pjg!&AJM&JIGT&9&;JPKG>&JA&=9TN&JM& DO&DN&:>OO>M&IJO&OJ&O9F>&JAA&AJM&m&=9TNY&2C>N>&9M>&9GG&OC>&LP>NODJIN&R>&I>>=&OJ&OCDIF&9:JPO]”&

“Even in the case of a weather alert we send out the trains _&9N&GJIB&9N&DO&DN&JIGT&9I&9G>MOZ& R>&N>I=&OC>H&JPO]& PO&OJ=9T&R>&FIJR&OC9O&AJM&NJH>&9G>MONZ&R>&NCJPG=&K>MC9KN&;JIND=>M& alternatives.” &

“At least on secondary routes we can generalize replacement options. If we know we will :>&9IIJT>=&OC>&RCJG>&NPHH>M&:>;9PN>&JA&C>9OZ&M9OC>M&OC9I&R9DODIB&AJM&OC>&DI;D=>IOZ&R>& could anticipate and implement in advance an alternative bus transport.” &

(WMVK!MV!_LE!^=UE!DM]EB_MWV!e=^!_LE!DM^B`^^MWV!=AW`_!eW]^_yB=Ê!EdEV_û!9E!DMD!VW_!e=V_!_LE! debate to be limited only to imagine “most probable changes.” Narratives of possible future weather situation can “provide complementary, more realistic and more physically consistent representations of what future weather might look like” {)=hETEKE]!E_!=Tur!éåçë|u!(WMVK!MV!_LM^! DM]EB_MWVr!eE![]W[WÊD!=V!Ef=U[TE!WJ!LMKLyEVD!A`_![T=`^MATE!^BEV=]MW!A`MT_!WV!_LE!EfM^_MVK! TM_E]=_`]E!MV!BTMU=_E!^BMEVBE!{"=DW]!E_!=Tur!éåçìs!"E]]gr!"E__^r!)=]]M^WVr!Ö!5=VBLEhy?]BMTT=r!éåçìs! $À`M^^WVr! éåçìs! *2##r! éåçêBs! +W`hET! E_! =Tur! éåçês! 3È^=D=r! 8=`_=]Dr! ;MW`r! )M]^BLMr! Ö! 5EVEdM]=_VEr!éåçés!5_W__r!5_WVEr!Ö!?TTEVr!éååê|u!6LM^![W^^MATE!J`_`]E!e=^!U=DE!WJ!=!^`BBE^^MWV! WJ!ÊdE]=T!^ÀÊ\ÈV_!Ef_]EUE^!EdEV_^!MV!=!^ÙUE]!^WUE_MUE^!AE_eEEV!éåèë!=VD!éåëåt!=!

çêï! ! D]g!^[]MVKr!=V!E=]Tg!A`_!^LW]_!LE=_e=dE!MV!.=gr!=!TWVKE]!EdEV!MJ!VW_!Ef_]EUE!LE=_e=dE!J]WU! +`Tg! _W! 5E[_EUAE]! eLEV! _LE! #EdEVWT ççç ! Ê=^WV! AEKMVû! 9E! BLWÊ! _LWÊ! EdEV_^! _W! AE! ]E[]EÊV_=_MdE!WJ!d=]MW`^!B=_EKW]ME^!WJ!BTMU=_E!EdWT`_MWVt!BL=VKE^!MV!Ê=^WV=TM_gr!BL=VKE^!MV! D`]=_MWV!WJ!LE=_e=dE^r!=VD![W^^MATE!BWVR`VB_MWV!eM_L!DM^]`[_MdE!BTMU=_E!EdEV_û!!

6LM^!Ef[W^G!DMD!VW_!TE=D!_W!=![]EBMÊ!DM^B`^^MWV!WV!_LE!]E^[WVÊ^!_W!=DD]E^^!_W!_LEÊ![=]_MB`T=]! B=Êû!2=]_MBM[=V_^!UW]E!KEVE]=TTg!eWVDE]ED!eL=_!M_!BW`TD!UE=V!_W!B]W^^!_LEÊ!_L]E^LWTD^!{Efu! _EU[E]=_`]E^!`[!_W!ëåÜ#!MV!^ÙUE]!AEBWUMVK!]E=TM^_MB!{"=DW]!E_!=Tur!éåçì||u!*_!=[[E=]ED!dE]g! BTE=]Tg!_L=_!_LM^!BW`TD!BL=TTEVKE!^WUE!WJ!_LE!BLWMBE^!U=DE!_WD=g!=VD![=]_MB`T=]Tg!_LE!dM=AMTM_g! WJ!BE]_=MV!TMVEû!6LM^!M^![=]_MB`T=]Tg!^=TMEV_!JW]!TMVE^!Ef[WÊD!_W!BTMU=_E!L=h=]D!W]!DE[EVDEV_!WV! seasonal flows (beach tourism in this region, ski elsewhere): “I wonder if in 2050 yéçåår!_LE! UW^_!^_]`B_ uring routes will be the same as today with this heat”. In other words, climate BL=VKE!\È^_MWV^!MVdE^_UEV_![WTMBME^!=VD!^_]=_EKMB!BLWMBEû!*V![=]_MB`T=]r!BWV_Ef_^!BWUAMVMVK! =V!EVL=VBED!BTMU=_E!d`TVE]=AMTM_g!=VD!EdWTdMVK!^WBMWEBWVWUMB!]E=TM_g!U=g!TWeE]!_LE!WdE]=TT! ]ETEd=VBE!WJ!]=MT]W=Dû!

&“_'I&;9N>&JA&C>9OZ&:>;9PN>&JA&OC>&MDNF&JA&M9DGN&=DG9ODJI&TJP&NGJR_=JRI&AMJH&sj&OJ&pj&HKCZ& :PO&=JDIB&NJZ&TJP&=DNOPM:&OC>&RCJG>&OM9AAD;&b]]]c&_1P;C&9&=>O>MDJM9ODJI&JA&OC>&K>MAJMH9I;>& LP>NODJIN&OC>&M>G>Q9I;>&JA&OCDN&HJ=>&JA&O ransport”. &

“If tomorrow, every summer you cannot take the train for 10, 20 or 30 days because the M9DGNZ&OC>&;9O>I9MT&JM&OC>&9DM&;JI=DODJIDIB&]]]&DO&LP>NODJIN&OC>&=PM9:DGDOT&JA&OC>&M9DG&NTNO>H&DI& B>I>M9G]&+9T:>&OC>M>&9M>&HJ=>N&JA&OM9INKJMO9ODJI&;PMM>IOGT&=>Q>GJK>=&OC9O&RDGG&:>&HJM>& adapted. Adaptation is perhaps just a question of survival of the rail system.” &

“There are lines with few customers and very expensive to maintain: should we continue OJ&JK>M9O>&OC>HY&5>&C9Q>&OC>&;9N>&RDOC&'IO>M;DO@N&MJPO>NZ&AJM&DINO9I;>&DI&*JU?M>Z&RDOC&9& KPM>GT&>;JIJHD;&K>MNK>;ODQ>Z&R>&NCJPG=&IJO&;DM;PG9O>&9ITHJM>]&+9T:>&OC9OdN&RC>M>&R>&BJ& for tomorrow, if in addition there is more problems because of the weather”. &

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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ççé !“Maintenance operations, surveillance of railway installations, organization, work site supply chains, implementation of works … 24/7 .=MV_EV=VBE!Ö!9W]S^!^_=JJ!EV^`]E!_LE!U=MV_EV=VBE!=VD!UW dernization of the railway network. […] To guarantee a high level of performance, MVVWd=_MWV! =VD! ^=JE_gr! .=MV_EV=VBE! Ö! 9W]S^! DEJMVE^! []MW]M_g! ]EVEe=T! []WREB_^r! E^[EBM=TTg! eM_LMV! _LE! J]=UEeW]S! WJ! _LE! /E_eW]S! .WDE]VM^=_MWV!2T=Vu!*_!=T^W!W]K=VMÊ^!U=MV_EV=VBE!actions tailored as closely as possible to railway needs”: routine maintenance works, ^[EBM=T! U=MV_EV=VBE! eW]S^! MVBT`DMVK! ]EVEe=T! WJ! _LE! ]=MTe=g! =VD! K]W`[ED! eW]SEDu! L__[^txxeeeu^VBJy]EÊ=ùJ]xEVx=AW`_xW`]y A`^MVE^^xU=MV_EV=VBEyeW]S^ !y!T=^_!=BBE^ÊD!'EA]`=]g!éåçî!! çëç! ! ^g^_EU=_Mh=_MWV! WJ! =T_E]V=_MdE! W[_MWV^! {Efu! A`Ê^|! W]! UE^^=KE^! ÊV_! _W! `Ê]^ ççè u! 9LW! M^! ]E^[WV^MATE! JW]! =DD]E^^MVK! _LEÊ! \È^_MWV^! ]EU=MV^! `VBTE=]r! AEB=`Ê! WJ! _LEM]! U`T_M[TE! BWVÊ\ÈVBE^!MV!_E]U^!WJ!Ê]dMBE!\`=TM_gr!EJJMBMEVBgr!MU=KE!WJ!_LE!BWU[=Vg!{eE!_=TSED!=AW`_! 5/#'![E]BE[_MWV!MV!_LE!UEDM=r!E^[EBM=TTg!MV!_LE!VEe!^WBM=T!UEDM=!E]= ççê |r!A`_!=T^W!MV!_E]U^!WJ! [ÀTMB! ÊB`]M_gu! .WAMTM_g! AEMVK! =! [ÀTMB! Ê]dMBE! =VD! ]=MTe=g^! AEMVK! B]M_MB=T! ^WBMWyEBWVWUMB! MVJ]=^_]`B_`]E^r! ^`BL! BWVÊ\ÈVBE^! KW! AEgWVD! 5/#'! M_ÊTJu! 6LEÊ! \È^_MWV^! MVdWTdE! U=Vg! ^_=SELWTDE]^!AW_L!eM_LMV!5/#'!=VD!=UWVK![ÀTMB!=`_LW]M_MEû!6LM^![=]_!WJ!_LE!DM^B`^^MWV!WV! climate change impacts lead to a debate around costs, risks and responsibilities: “in _LE! DM=TWKÈ! eM_L! _]=JJMB! =`_LW]M_ME^r! =^! ^WWV! =^! M_! BWUE^! _W! ]E^[WV^MAMTM_ME^! =VD! BW^_^! M^^È^r! DM^B`^^MWV^! AEBWUE! TMSE! =! [MVK! [WVK! K=UEu! %dE]gWVE! M^! [`__MVK! _LE! ]E^[WV^MAMTM_g! WV! _LE! others. We need to clarify who is in charge of what.” !!

5/#'! .WAMTM_G^! M^! WJ_EV! [WMV_ED! =^! =V! E=^MTg! MDEV_MJM=ATE! B`T[]M_u! *_! M^! WV! _LE! J]WV_! TMVEr! interacting on a daily basis with users of rails and directly blamed in case of disruption (“we are still the company that is quickly pointed out“; “in customers’ mind today, if we !=]E!JW]BED! to close a line, even because of a climate emergency, SNCF is still responsible”) !u!)WeEdE]r!_LE! BWU[=Vg! DWE^! VW_! VEBE^^=]MTg! BWV_]WT! =TT! _LE! TEdE]^! _W! =DD]E^^! _LE! M^^Èu! ?^! =! UWAMTM_g! []WdMDE]r! M_! L=^! JM]^_! _W! DE=T! eM_L! ^LW]_E]! _MUE! LW]MhWV^t! M_! W[E]=_E^! eM_L! _LE! EfM^_MVK! MVJ]=^_]`B_`]E!=VD!MV!B=Ê!WJ!B]M^M^!L=^!_W!JWTTWe!5/#'!4GÊ=`!MV^_]`B_MWV^!{5/#'r!éåçíA| ççë u! 6LM^!U=g!^M_`=_MWV!eMTT!UW^_!TMSETg!AE!BWU[TEfMJMED!Ag!_LE!W[EVMVK!WJ!_LE!]=MT!_]=V^[W]_=_MWV! market: “In an opened yU=]SE_r!M_!R`^_!L=^!_W!]E^[WVD!_W!_LE!]E\`M]EUEV_^!WJ!_LE!=`_LW]M_g!MV! BL=]KE!WJ!_LE!UWAMTM_g![WTMBg ççí ”. SNCF Réseau, as a long yTMJE!=^Ê_^!U=V=KE]r!M^!UW]E!TWVKy _E]U!W]MEV_ED!{#%$$r!éåçë|!–!and thus is a less visible potential “culprit”. Yet, because of its V=_`]=T!UWVW[WTg!WV!_LE!MVJ]=^_]`B_`]Er!M_!]EU=MV^!_LE!`VM\È!=VD!TEKM_MU=_E!MV_E]TWB`_W]!JW]! [ÀTMB!=`_LW]M_MEû!'MV=TTgr![ÀTMB!=`_LW]M_ME^!L=dE!=!D`_g!_W!_=SE!B=]E!WJ![ÀTMB!ÊB`]M_g ççì u!6LEg!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ççè !)We!_W!MV_EK]=_E!_LM^!M^^È!WJ!=D=[_=_MWV!MV_W!_LE!MVJW]U=_MWV!DETMdE]ED!_W![=^ÊVKE]^q!*^!M_!=!5_=_E!]E^[WV^MAMTM_g!W]!^LW`TD!M_!AE!DETEK=_ED! _W!5/#'q!?]E![=^^ engers ready to postpone their planned trips? “"A train y`Ê]!AWWS^!LM^!_MBSE_!UWV_L^!MV!=Dd=VBE!W]!EdEV!A`g!=V!=VV`=T! _]=V^M_![=^û!6LM^!UE=V^!_L=_!J]WU!LM^![E]^[EB_MdE!_LE!_]M[!M^!=T]E=Dg![]WUMÊDr!M_!M^!DÈu!9LEV!_LE]E!M^!=V!MV_E]]`[_MWV!M_É^!MV_WTE]=ATE!AEB=`Ê! he perceived it as a broken contract”. ! ççê !“Customer's expectations are changing, becoming even more demanding and visible with social medias. In case of a crisis, canc ETTMVK!=! _]=MV!U=g!AE!dE]g!MU[=B_MVK!JW]!_LE!BWU[=Vg!MU=KEu!?_!_LE!EVD!WJ!_LE!D=g , whatever the initial cause, the message broadcasted is that “SNCF trains are not circulating”.” ! ççë !“SNCF Réseau is in charge, as Infrastructure Manager, of the management of operations related to the return to a nominal rail e=g! []WD`B_MWV!WV!_LE!/=_MWV=T! Rail Network” (translated from (SNCF, 2016) ! ççí !As noted, it is already the case in urban areas “Keolis is not defining the mobility Policy of Bordeaux Metropolis, it just operates the service” ! ççì !$GB]E_!VÜ!éåçìyçåìç!D`!éê!U=M!éåçì!]ET=_MJ! =`f!=__]MA`_MWV^!D`!UMVM^_]E!DÉ%_=_r!UMVM^_]E!DE!T=!_]=V^M_MWV!GBWTWKM\È!E_!^WTMD=M]Er!BJu! L__[^txxeeeuEBWTWKM\Èy^WTMD=M]EuKW`duJ]xDM]EB_MWVyKEVE]=TEyDE^yMVJ]=^_]`B_`]E^yDE^y_]=V^[W]_^yE_yUE]yDKM_U ! –! T=^_! =BBE^ÊD! 'EA]`=]g! éåçî! çëé! ! =T^W!EVJW]BE!J]EEyBWU[E_M_MWV!]`TE^!DEJMVED!=_!_LE!%7!TEdET!JW]!TMAE]=TMhED![=]_!WJ!_LE!Ê]dMBE! {J]EMKL_r!LMKLy^[EED!TMVE^r!MV_E]V=_MWV=T!TMVE^!=VD!^WWV!]EKMWV=T!_]=JJMB|u!.W]EWdE]r!_LEg!DE^MKV! =VD!JMV=VBM=TTg!^`[[W]_![ÀTMB!UWAMTM_g![WTMBMEû!5MVBE!_LE!éåçí!T=e ççî r!_LE]E!=]E!_eW!MU[W]_=V_! [ÀTMB! TEdET^! WJ! KWdE]V=VBE! ]EK=]DMVK! ]=MTe=g! _]=V^[W]_t! _LE! V=_MWV=T! 5_=_E! =VD! 4EKMWV=T! BW`VBMT^ ççï u! 6LE! V=_MWV=T! 5_=_E! M^! _LE! _]=JJMB! =`_LW]M_g! JW]! *V_E]BM_G^! Ê]dMBE^r! MuEu! UMDDTEy DM^_=VBE! _]=MV^! W[E]=_MVK! BT=^^MB=T! TMVE^ çéå u! 4EKMWV=T! BW`VBMT^! =]E! _LE! _]=JJMB! =`_LW]M_ME^! JW]! ]EKMWV=T!_]=MV^!{6%4|u!6LEÊ![ÀTMB!=B_W]^!B=V!U=SE!BWV_]=^_ED![WTM_MB=T!BLWMBEû!6LEg!UMKL_! JW]!MV^_=VBE!AE_!WV!]=MT!_W!MV^`]E!=!J=M]!=VD!]ETM=ATE!=BBE^^!_W!TWe!B=]AWVr!LMKL!B=[=BM_g!UWAMTM_g! ^WT`_MWV^!W]!_LEg!UMKL_!]ETg!WV!BWU[E_M_MWV!AE_eEEV!UWDE^!_W!MVB]E=Ê!_LE!BW^_y[E]JW]U=VBE! =VD!JTEfMAMTM_g!WJ!W[_MWV^!=d=MT=ATE!_W!`Ê]^!{6=ATE!ëyé|u!4E^W`]BE^!BWV^_]=MV_^!A`_!=T^W![WTM_MB=T! dM^MWV^! –!BWUMVK!W`_!DEUWB]=_MB!DEA=_E^!y!U=g!MV_E]dEVE!MV!^`BL!=!DEBM^MWVu!

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# 3PWT>Ah#DWVGPT# n# )O#;#TA>AOV#[PTLf#VGA#&TAO>G#-HOHUVT]#PE#$>PMPF]#UGP[A@#VG;V#VGA#UP>HPkA>POPNH>#>POUASWAO>AU#;TA#POA#PE#VGA#NPUV# UHFOHEH>;OV#>PUVU#EPMMP[HOF#;O#HOVATTWRVHPO#HO#VT;EEH>#=A>;WUA#PE#;#[A;VGATkTAM;VA@#HO>H@AOVi#)O#VGA#TA;MkMHEA#>;UA#[GAO#;#N;HO# VT;HOkservice between two regional cities in Britany the cost exceed 2M€. l"'##f#vtu{m# nn# >iEi# EPT# HOUV;O>A# U>AO;THPU# UVW@HA@# =]# VGA# MPFHUVH>U# >PNR;O]# #(,# HO# [GH>G# TAMH;=HMHV]# =A>PNAU# ;#N;KPT#>PNRAVHVHZA# ;@Z;OV;FA#HO#;#[PTM@#=]#;O#HO>TA;UA@#>MHN;VA#Z;TH;=HMHV]#l#CRPWAUf#vtuzg##(,f#vtuvm#

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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ççî !-WM!VÜéåçëyïïç!D`!ì!=Wb_!éåçë![W]_=V_!VW`dETTE!W]K=VM^=_MWV!_E]]M_W]M=TE!DE!T=!4G[ÀTM\È!{-WM!/064E|! ççï !.E_]W[WTM_=V!']=VBE!M^!DMdMDED!MV_W!çè!=DUMVM^_]=_MdE!]EKMWV^!! çéå !v!Trains d’équilibre du territoire !w! çëè! ! !P\#yku#k#D@;RV;VHPO#FPZATO;O>A#;O#HUUWA#RTAZHPWUM]#H@AOVHEHA@#;V#3."&# *_! M^! MV_E]E^_MVK! _W! VW_E! _L=_r! MV! M_^! dE]g! JM]^_! =__EU[_! _W! =DD]E^^! =D=[_=_MWV! eE! DE^B]MAED! =_! _LE! AEKMVVMVK!WJ!BL=[_E]!è!{$4?*-![]WREB_|!5/#'!L=D!=T]E=Dg!MDEV_MJMED!KWdE]V=VBE!{]EK`T=_MWVr!TEdET!WJ! BWU[E_M_MWV|!=^!WVE!WJ!_LE!_]MBSME^_!\È^_MWVû!*V!_LE!W`_BWUE^!WJ!_LM^![]WREB_r!eE!BW`TD!]E=D!=UWVK! []MW]M_ME^!JW]!=D=[_=_MWV!_W!ÑMDEV_MJg!=TT!_LE!MV_E]DE[EVDEVBME^r!A]MVK!W`_!=!^L=]ED!dM^MWV!AE_eEEV!_LE! ^_=SELWTDE]^r! ^_]MdE! JW]! _LE! =`_LW]M_ME^! _W! =DW[_! =! BTE=]! KWdE]V=VBE! WJ! _LE! ]MKL_^r! D`_ME^! =VD! ]E^[WV^MAMTM_ME^!WJ!E=BL!y!E^[EBM=TTg!MV!B=Ê!WJ!BTMU=_E!B]M^M^!Ñu!6LE!DEK]EE!WJ!BWW]DMV=_MWV!{J]=KUEV_ED! dû!_MKL_!KWdE]V=VBE|!e=^!EdEV![]W[WÊDr!eM_L!_LE!MV_EV^M_g!WJ!BTMU=_E!BL=VKEr!=^!WVE!WJ!_LE!_eW!SEg! d=]M=ATE!_W!A`MTD!=V!=D=[_=_MWV!^_]=_EKg !{'MK`]E! ëyè|u ! 'MK`]E!ëyè!y!,Eg![=]=UE_E]^!_W!A`MTD!=D=[_=_MWV!^BEV=]MW^!

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6=SMVK!MV_W!=BBW`V_!_LW^E!LE_E]WKEVEW`^!BWV_Ef_^!=VD!BWV^_]=MV_^r!DM^B`^^MWV!=]W`VD!]WTE^! =VD!]E^[WV^MAMTM_ME^!M^!B]M_MB=T!JW]!DE^MKVMVK!=VD!MU[TEUEV_MVK!=V!EJJMBMEV_!=D=[_=_MWV!^_]=_EKg! {2]E^_WV!E_!=Tur!éåçç| : “a recent study shows that demarcations of responsibilities are often lacking in adaptation policy documents”. As noticed in {%`]W[E=V!%VdM]WVUEV_!?KEVBgr!éåçêr! [u!çê| , “the responsibility for adaptation action in the transport sector is often not clear. !}uuu~! MV! _LE! EdEV_! _L=_! =D=[_=_MWV! ]ET=_ED! _W! _]=V^[W]_! eW`TD! L=[[EV! WVTg! ^[WV_=VEW`^Tgr! BWVJTMB_MVK!=VD!MVEJJEB_MdE!^_]=_EKME^!BW`TD!JWTTWe ” {6=ATE!ëyè|çéç u!&

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! çéç !(WdE]V=VBE!WJ!=D=[_=_MWV!M^!=!_W[MB!MVB]E=^MVKTg!=DD]E^ÊD!MV!_LE!TM_E]=_`]Eu!)`M_EU=!E_!=Tu![]W[WÊD!=!KEVE]=T!J]=UEeW]S!_W!=V=TghE!W]! DE^MKV!KWdE]V=VBE!^g^_EU^!=BBW]DMVK!_W!=!_g[WTWKg!WJ!W[_MWV^!=UWVK!eLMBL!DEBM^MWV!U=SE]^!L=dE!_W!BLWWÊu!6LE!B=_EKW]ME^!WJ!_LM^!_g[WTWKg! =]Et![]WATEU!BLWMBE^r!TEdET!BLWMBE^r!_MUMVK!BLWMBE^r!BLWMBE^!BWVBE]VMVK!UWDE^!WJ!KWdE]V=VBE!=VD!MV^_]ÙEV_^r!VW]U^!=VD![]MVBM[TE^!BLWMBE^! =VD!EdEV_`=TTg!MU[TEUEV_=_MWV!=VD!EVJW]BEUEV_!BLWMBE^!{)`M_EU=!E_!=Tur!éåçí|u! çëê! ! 4;=MA#ykw#k##HEEATAOV#;@;RV;VHPO#HOVATAUVU#PE#VT;OURPTV#UV;LAGPM@ATU#

! 3PWT>Ah#l$WTPRA;O#$OZHTPONAOV#DFAO>]f#vtuxf#Ri#uym# “Transport activity is the result of bringing together resources of quit A# ;# @HEEATAOV# O;VWTAh# ;RRTPRTH;VA# HOET;UVTW>VWTAf# ASWHRNAOVf# ZAGH>MAUf# VT;HOUf# ;ATPRM;OAU# ;O@# UGHRU# OAA@# VP# =A# RTPZH@A@i# 3ATZH>A# RTPZH@ATU# RWV# VPFAVGAT# VGAUA# TAUPWT>AU# VP# N;LA# VT;OURPTV# UATZH>AU# ;Z;HM;=MA# EPT# @HEEATAOV# OAA@Uf# VGATA=]# WUHOF# @HEEATAOV# VT;OURPTV#NP@AUh#T;HMf#TP;@f#;ZH;VHPOf#HOM;O@#[;VAT#PT#N;THVHNA#UGHRRHOFi#2AFWM;VPTU#;V#VGA#Z;THPWU#;@NHOHUVT;VHZA# MAZAMU#RTPZH@A#VGA#=;UH>#TWMAU#VP#E;>HMHV;VA#PRAT;VHPOU#VP#TWO#UNPPVGM]f#AEEH>HAOVM]#;O@#[HVG#NHOHNWN#HNR;>VUi# &HO;MM]f#VGA#OWNATPWU#WUATU#N;LA#VGAHT#>GPH>AU#;O@#VGATA=]#UG;RA#VT;OURPTV#@AN;O@i#-PUV#UV;LAGPM@ATU#N;]#POM]# G;ZA#;#R;TVH;M#RATURA>VHZA#PE#VGA#U]UVAN#VGA]#N;O;FA#PT#WUAi#4GA]#NHFGV#;MUP#G;ZA#@HEEATAOV#HOVATAUVU#HO#VT;OURPTVi# )V#HU#A\RA>VA@#VG;Vf#[HVGPWV#PZAT;MM#UVT;VAFHAUf#VGA#N;HO#UV;LAGPM@ATU#[HMM#TA;>V#;WVPOPNPWUM]#VP#VGA#>G;MMAOFAU#PE# >MHN;VA# >G;OFAi# 'HZAO# VGA# =TP;@# >G;MMAOFAU# PE# >MHN;VA# >G;OFA# ;O@# VGA# UVTPOF# HOVAT>POOA>VHZHV]# HOUH@A# VGA# VT;OURPTV#UA>VPT#;O@#[HVG#PVGAT#UA>VPTU#;O@#;TA;U#PE#UP>HAV]f#UW>G#;#ET;FNAOVA@#;RRTP;>G#UAANU#WOMHLAM]#VP#=A# AEEH>HAOVi#)V#>G;MMAOFAU#VGA#OA>AUU;T]#>POUHUVAO>]#;O@#>PGATAO>A#;>TPUU#VGA#UA>VPT#;O@#U]UVAN#VP#;@@TAUU#MPOFk term challenges”. #lH=H@m# !

çëë! ! This rapid overview of actor’s relationships shows that the conditions may exist for a BWV^_]`B_MdE!DM=TWKÈ!WV!BTMU=_E!=D=[_=_MWVr!=_!TE=^_!AE_eEEV![ÀTMB!=`_LW]M_ME^!=VD!5/#'! Réseau (“Being the unique manager of the Infrastructure, SNCF Réseau will perhaps remain as the good interlocutor. It is also responsible for what happens on its network”). Mobility []WdMDE]^! JW]! _LEM]! [=]_! B=V! BLWWÊ! _W! ]EU=MV! ^MTEV_! W]! _W! ^L=]E! MVJW]U=_MWV! eM_L! _LE! =`_LW]M_MEû! ?UWVK! [=]_MBM[=V_^! _W! _LE! eW]S^LW[r! AW_L! W[_MWV^! eE]E! DEJEVDEDu! 5/#'! .WAMTM_G^!L=^!_LE!TEKM_MU=Bg!WJ!Ef[E]MEVBE!A`_!_LE!DM=TWKÈ!U=g!AEBWUE!UW]E!DMJJMB`T_!MV!=! BWU[E_M_MdE!Ê__MVKt!

“We are still in a situation of monopoly, but soon we will not be the only ones on the H9MF>O]&'A&R>&M9DN>&OCDN&OJKD;&:PO&JPM&I>R&;JHK>ODOJMN&=J&IJOZ&JPM&;GD>ION&RDGG&OCDIF&OC9O& OC>M>&9M>&K>JKG>&9:G>&OJ&H9I9B>&DO&HJM>&>AAD;D>IOGT&OC9I& R>&=J]&?O&OC>&>I=&JA&OC>&=9TZ& which legitimacy will we have to talk about these issues more than any other?” &

“I still think that we must not remain totally silent. Precisely because of this new market NDOP9ODJI]&'O&RJPG=&:>&OJJ&>9NT&AJM&OM9AAD;&9POCJMDOD>N&OJ&:G9H>&PN&AJM&IJO&9G>MODIB&OC>H]&2C>& I>R&>IOM9ION&>I;JPIO>MDIB&KMJ:G>HN&RDGG&>SKG9DI&OC9O&OC>T&9M>&G>B9;T&JA&OC>&K9NO]&?N&R>& FIJR&OC>&MDNFN&R>&H9T&B9DI&AMJH&:>DIB&DMM>KMJ9;C9:G>&9I=&OM9INK9M>IO&DI&OC>&DIAJMH9ODJI& R>&=>GDQ>M&OJ&9POCJMDOD>N]e&

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6L]W`KLW`_!_LEÊ!DM^B`^^MWV^r![=]_MBM[=V_^!DMD!VW_!LE^M_=_E!_W!BWV^MDE]!=!eMDE!^[EB_]Ù! WJ!=D=[_=_MWV!W[_MWVû!6LEg!eEV_!\`M_E!J=]!MV!\È^_MWVMVK!_LE!MU[TMB=_MWV^!WJ!BTMU=_E!BL=VKEr! AELMVD! _LE! `^`=T! dEMT! WJ! MV^_M_`_MWV=T! [W^_`]Eû! 9M_LW`_! =Vg! ]E[]EÊV_=_MdE^! WJ! [ÀTMB! authorities, we could not fully compare everyone’s viewpoints r! A`_! EdEV! eM_LMV! 5/#'r! =D=[_=_MWV!^_]=_EKME^!B=V!AE!dE]g!DMJJE]EV_!DE[EVDMVK!WV! actor’s constraints and interests R&&

y ']WU!=V!=^Ê_!U=V=KE]![E]^[EB_MdEr!=D=[_=_MWV!UE=V^!MV!_LE!JM]^_![T=BE!_W!MU[]WdE!_LE! MVJ]=^_]`B_`]E! –!U=SMVK!M_!UW]E!]WA`^_!W]!UW]E!]E^MTMEV_!y!_W!=^^`]E!M_!eMTT!AE!=ATE!_W! BW[E!eM_L!BTMU=_E!BL=VKEû!6LE!M^^È!=_!^_=SE!M^!_W!U=SE!^`]E!_L=_!]=MTe=g!=^!=!UWAMTM_g! W[_MWV!eMTT!^`]dMdE!MV!_LE!BWUMVK!gE=]û! y ']WU! =! UWAMTM_gy[WTMBg! [E]^[EB_MdEr! =D=[_=_MWV! M^! =AW`_! U=SMVK! _LE! ]ETEd=V_! MVdE^_UEV_^!=VD![]MW]M_MhE!BLWMBE^!_W!=^^`]E!D`]=ATE!=VD!\`=TM_=_MdE!Ê]dMBE^!_W!`Ê]û! '=dW]ED! ]W`_E^! =VD! _]=V^[W]_! _EBLVM\È^! =]E! BWV^MDE]ED! d=]M=ATE^! MV! _LM^! E\`=_MWVr! ^WUE_MUE^! =^! J=dW]ED! UWDEû! 6LM^! M^! BWV^M^_EV_! eM_L! WVKWMVK! EdWT`_MWV^! _L=_! D]MdE! LM^_W]MB=T! [T=gE]^! ^`BL! =^! 5/#'! .WAMTM_G^! _W! ]EDEJMVE! _LEM]! MDEV_M_g! J]WU! =! ]=MTe=g!

çëí! ! BWU[=Vg! _W! UWAMTM_gyservices providers: “Our partners only consider the railway W[_MWVu! 9E! L=dE! _W! ^=g! _L=_! 5/#'! M^! VWe! =V! MV_E]UWD=T! BWU[=Vgu! }uuu~! 6LE]E! M^! =! [ED=KWKMB=T!=^[EB_!_W!U=SE!W`]!B`^_WUE]^!`VDE]^_=VD!_L=_!KTWA=T!e=]UMVK!B=V!BL=VKE! LWe!eE!B=V!J`TJMTT!W`]!UM^^MWVu!?VD!W`]!UM^^MWV!M^!VW_!_W!W[E]=_E!]=MT]W=D^s!M_!M^!_W!B=]]g! [eople, to offer mobility services.” ! 6LEM]! BL=TTEVKE! M^! _W! UEE_! [WTMBgyU=SE]^! ]E\`M]EUEV_^!MV!_LE!UW^_!BW^_yefficient and satisfying way: “In some places, the most adapted train line may be a bus line […]”. ! y ']WU!=!BWUUE]BM=T![E]^[EB_MdE!{EuKu!JW]!6(8!W[E]=_MVK!LMKLy^[EED!TMVE^!eLMBL!=]E!VW_! ^À^MDMhED! =^! ]EKMWV=T! TMVE^! =]E|! BWV^MDE]MVK! BTMU=_E! BL=VKE! UE=V^! =D=[_MVK! _LE! BWU[=Vg!d=TÈ![]W[W^M_MWV çéé !{U=V=KMVK!]M^S^!=VD!ÊMhMVK!W[[W]_`VM_ME^|!_W!SEE[!W]! MU[]WdE! =! BWU[E_M_MdE! =Dd=V_=KE! WdE]! W_LE]! _]=V^[W]_! =T_E]V=_MdEu! ?D=[_=_MWV! therefore becomes part of an efficient marketing strategy wondering how customers’ Ef[EB_=_MWV^! eMTT! EdWTdE! ]EK=]DMVK! EuKu! LE=_yBWUJW]_r! _W[! Ê=^WV=T! DE^_MV=_MWV^! W]! _]=dETy[]MW]M_ME^! {eMTT! ^[EED! ]EU=MV! =^! MU[W]_=V_! BWU[=]ED! _W! ]ETM=AMTM_g! eM_L! UW]E! eE=_LE]! L=h=]D^! E^[EBM=TTg! JW]! J]EMKL_q ). As one participant said, “there are other BWU[=VME^!EV_E]MVK!_LE!U=]SE_!AW_L!JW]!_]=dETE]^!=VD!J]EMKL_r!=VD!}uuu~!MJ!8EWTM=!_]=MV^! =]E! AE__E]! =M]yBWVDM_MWVEDr! _LEV! UW]E! [EW[TE! eMTT! BLWWÊ! _LEUr! _LE! BWUJW]_! eMTT! AEBWUE!=!B]M_E]MWV!WJ!BWU[E_M_MWVu” !

6LM^!description shows how, even within a “single” company such as SNCF Mobilités, several =__M_`DE^!=]E![W^^MATE!=VD!]=_MWV=Tu!8=]MW`^!EBWVWUMB!BWVJMK`]=_MWV^!TMdE!_WKE_LE]u!$E[EVDMVK! WV!_LE!BWV_Ef_r!=D=[_=_MWV!U=g!AE!AEVEJMBM=T!^MU`T_=VEW`^Tgr!W]!VW_r!_W!_LE!MV_E]E^_!WJ!_LE! ^_=_E!WeVED!5/#'!=VD!_W!_LE!MV_E]E^_!WJ![]Md=_E!W[E]=_W]^ çéè u!*_!dE]g!^_]WVKTg!DE[EVD^!WV!_LE! WdE]=TT!U=]SE_!^_]`B_`]Er!eLMBL!M^!DMJJE]EV_!J]WU!WVE!Ê]dMBE!_W!=VW_LE]!=VD!]=[MDTg!EdWTdMVKu! 4WKKE]W!E_!=Tu!=]KÈD!WV!_LE!]WTE!WJ!Ñ_LE!BWVBE[_`=T!_WWTAWf!WJ!MV^_M_`_MWV=T!EBWVWUMB^Ñ!_W! MU[]WdE!_LE!KWdE]V=VBE!WJ!=D=[_=_MWVr!_=SMVK!MV_W!=BBW`V_!_LM^!d=]ME_g!WJ!U=]SE_!Ê__MVK^! {4WKKE]Wr! "M^=]Wr! Ö! 8MTT=U=gW]y6WU=^r! éåçìs! 4WKKE]W! Ö! 6LMETr! éåçì|u! ?BBW]DMVK! _W! _LEU! DMJJE]EV_! “BWW]DMV=_MWV!=VD!BWW[E]=_MWV![]WATEU^!EUE]KE!J]WU!_LE!e=g!=B_W]^!MV_E]=B_!_W! =BLMEdE!=D=[_=_MWVÑu!These are relevant questions both from the companies’ perspective and JW]!U=fMUMhMVK!BWTTEB_MdE!AEVEJM_^!WJ!=D=[_=_MWVu!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! çéé !MuEu!eL=_!M_!WJJE]^!_W!M_^!B`^_WUE]^r!_LE![]WUMÊ!WJ!AEVEJM_^!_W!AE!DETMdE]ED!_W!`Ê]û! çéè !0V!_LE![ÀTMBy[]Md=_E!DEA=_E!WV!=D=[_=_MWVr!BJu!{$`M_!Ö!(=T=hr!éååîs!,TEMVr!+`LWT=r!Ö!-=VD=È]r!éåçìs!.EE^r!$]ME^ÊVr!Ö!4`VL==]r!éåçés! 6WU[SMV^!Ö!%=SMVr!éåçé|u! çëì! ! 'W]!MV^_=VBEr!]EK=]DMVK!6%4r!_LE!B`]]EV_!TMAE]=TMh=_MWV![L=Ê!U=SE^!=Vg!TWVKy_E]U![T=VVMVK! very difficult. A participant testified: “I lived the opening of market for freight, in the beginning _LE!BWU[E_M_W]^!DMD!VW_!_=TS!=AW`_!^WBME_=T![]WATEU^r!M_!M^!WVTg!=AW`_!_LE!EBWVWUMB^r!_LE![]MBEr! LWe!_W!U=V=KE!BW^_^r!LWe!_W!KW!J=^_E]u!}uuu~!0`]!BWU[E_M_W]^!eMTT!AE!U`BL!UW]E!BWVBEV_]=_ED! WV!U=]SE_!^L=]E^!_L=V!WV!BTMU=_E!M^^È^Ñu!)WeEdE]r!eM_L!_MUEr!_LM^!_g[E!WJ!BWVJMK`]=_MWV^!U=g! EdWTdEt! y!_We=]D^! =V! WTMKW[WTg! MV! eLMBL! =D=[_=_MWV! U=g! AEBWUE! =! BWTTEB_MdE! []WATEU! =DD]E^ÊD!_L]W`KL!ÊB_W]=T!=K]EEUEV_^ çéê r!W]! y_We=]D^!UWVW[WTM^_MB!BWU[E_M_MWV!MV!eLMBL! =D=[_=_MWV!AEBWUE^![=]_!WJ!=!DMJJE]EV_M=_MWV!^_]=_EKg!{JW^_E]MVK!=D=[_=_MWV!=^!=V!MVVWd=_MWV! [WTMBg|u!6LE!^M_`=_MWV!M^!=T]E=Dg!DMJJE]EV_!JW]!6(8!W]!']E_!5/#'!{J]EMKL_|!eLMBL!=]E!BWUUE]BM=T! Ê]dMBE^!EVK=KED!MV!=V!MV_E]UWD=T!BWU[E_M_MWV!{=K=MV^_![T=VE^r!BW=BLE^r!_]`BS^r!E_Bu|u!*V!_LM^! BWV_Ef_r!=D=[_=_MWV!B=V![=]_MBM[=_E!_W!_LE!]EDEJMVM_MWV!WJ!_LE!AEVEJM_^!WJJE]ED!Ag!5/#'!_W!M_^! customers: focusing for instance on user’s comfort for TGV or reliability for the freight çéë u!!

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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! çéê !?![=]_MBM[=V_!eLW!eW]SED!JW]!_LE!e=_E]!MVD`^_]g!AEJW]E!DE^B]MAED!_LM^!_g[E!WJ!BWVJMK`]=_MWV!AE_eEEV!U=RW]!BWU[=VME^!MV!_LM^!ÊB_W]u!! çéë ! #WVD`B_MVK! =! JW]E^MKL_! EfE]BMÊr! $)-r! _LE! TWKM^_MB^! BWU[=Vg! MU=KMVED! =! ^BEV=]MW! MV! eLMBL! d`TVE]=AMTM_g! UM_MK=_MWV! =VD! ]E^MTMEVBE! WJ! _]=V^[W]_^!AEBWUE!UW]E!MU[W]_=V_!_L=V!^[EED!=VD!EJJMBMEVBg!U=fMUMh=_MWV!AEB=`Ê!WJ!UW]E!VÙE]W`^!Ef_]EUE!eE=_LE]!EdEV_^!{$)-r!éåçé|u! çéí !'W]!^BLWWT!LWTMD=g^r!']=VBE!M^!DMdMDED!MV!hWVE^x]EKMWV^!U=DE!_W!L=VDTE!_LE!LWTMD=g!]`^L!AE__E]u!?!V=_MWV=T!^BLED`TE!Ê_^!EdE] y year holiday’s [E]MWDû! 6LEÊ! JMfED! D=_E^! =]E! SEg! DE_E]UMV=V_! WJ! _]=MVy! [=^ÊVKE]^! flows (what we call “grands departs”). For instance see, L__[txxeeeu^VBJuBWUx]E^^W`]BE^xB[zéìzyzK]=VD^zDE[=]_^zéåçìu[DJ!y!T=^_!=BBE^ÊD!.=g!éåçî! çëî! ! ?_!_LE!EVD!WJ!_LE!D=gr!_LE]E!M^!VW!`VE\`MdWB=T!=D=[_=_MWV!]E^[WVÊ!_W!_LEÊ!eMBSED![]WATEU^! A`_! =! [T`]=TM_g! WJ! [W^^MATE! =__M_`DEû! 6LM^! MVBT`DED! _LE! =BSVWeTEDKEUEV_! _L=_! JW]EÊEMVK! BL=VKE! M^! VW_! ^`JJMBMEV_! _W! =B_u! #W^_^! DM^_]MA`_MWV! =VD! _EBLVWTWKMB=T! BL=TTEVKE^! U`^_! AE! J=B_W]ED! MVr! =VD! ^WUE_MUE s prevent anticipatory adaptation. ” Wait and see,” is thus an W[_MWVr!=BBE[_MVK!_W!^`JJE]!_LE!BWVÊ\ÈVBEû!'W]!^WUE!SEg!J=B_W]^!^`BL!=^!5/#'!.WAMTM_G^!W]! _]=JJMB!=`_LW]M_ME^r!U=Vg!=T_E]V=_MdE!^_]=_EKMB!BLWMBE^!=]E!^_MTT!W[EVyEVDEDu!!

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“How can a company, which is necessarily focused on the short term (for SNCF, en NPMDIB& OC>&N9A>OT&9I=&;JHAJMO&JA&AJPM&HDGGDJI&K9NN>IB>MN&>Q>MT&=9TaZ&M>AG>;O&9I=&9;O&OJ&O9F>&;GDH9O>& !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! çéì !#L]M^_M=V!$ÀW^_!e=^!_LE!5/#'!^`^_=MV=AMTM_g!DM]EB_W]!AE_eEEV!éåçê!=VD!éåçîu! çéî !*VDEEDr!]E=B_MdE!=`_WVWUW`^!=D=[_=_MWV!DWE^!VW_!=Te=g^!EVD!eETTu!6=SMVK!=B_MWV!_WW!T=_E!U=g!AE!MV^`JJMBMEV_!_W!BW[E!eM_L![W_EV_M=TTg! ]=[MD!BL=VKEû!?DR`^_UEV_!WVTgr!U=g!B]E=_E!TWBSyins in configurations maladapted to a more variable or extreme climate regime: “Humans L=dE!_LE!`VM\È!=AMTM_g!_W!=V_MBM[=_E!J`_`]E!^_]E^Ê^r!=VD!=]E!_L`^!B=[=ATE!WJ!_=SMVK![]W=B_MdE!=D=[_=_MWV!UE=^`]E^!_W!TE^ÊV!_LE![E]BEMdED! VEK=_MdE!MU[=B_^!J]WU!_L ese future events”. (Engle, 2011). ! çíé! ! ;C9IB>& DIOJ& ;JIND=>M9ODJIY& 2CDN& DN& OC>& C>9MO& JA& OC>& H9OO>M\& >AA>;ODQ>& 9=9KO9ODJI& JA& OC>& KG9I>O&9I=&JA&OC>&$M>I;C&O>MMDOJMT&M>LPDM>N&NK>I=DIB&ODH>&9I=&>NK>;D9GGT&HJI>T&OJ&KG9I&AJM& the future. In a world in crisis, this is not the least of our difficulties.” `"P:JNOZ&ljkqa&

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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! çêì !'W]!5/#'!M_!M^!EdEV!=!DWÀTEyTE=[t!JM]^_!UWdMVK!J]WU!=!^_]MB_!A`DKE_=]g!=[[]W=BL!_W!=B_`=T!EBWVWUMByA=ÊD!]M^S!U=V=KEUEV_![]=B_MBE^!_LEV! MV_]WD`BMVK!DEE[y`VBE]_=MV_g!MV!M_^!]M^S!U=V=KEUEV_u! çêî !2]WdMDMVK!=!]EJTEfMdE!TWWS!=_!_LE![]WBE^^!UMKL_!AE!=!UM^^MWV!JW]!_LE!^BMEVBE!WJ!=D=[_=_MWV!5e=]_!=]E!B=TTMVK!JW]!{5e=]_!E_!=Tur!éåçê|u! çêï !“The fundamental issue: our Cartesian and administrative cultures, made of exact science and concrete jurisprudence, demandin K!^_=ATE! `VMdE]Ê^!=VD!eM_LW`_!Ef_]EUE![LEVWUEV=r!L=dE!=!TW_!WJ!_]WÀTE!eM_L!`VBE]_=MV_gr! volatility and chaotic phenomenon” Patrick Lagadec ! çïé! ! =AW`_!_LE!BL=TTEVKEr!_W!JMVD!eLW!M^!=B_`=TTg!BWVBE]VEDr!eLMBL!BL=]=B_E]^!eMTT![T=g!=VD!_ETT!_LE! ^_W]g!WJ!=D=[_=_MWVu!!

2=3I(/*!$(I8AAH(JH(34DJI(373EI3I>DC(D;(>C;G3HIGJ5IJG8((

It is less about “stand[ing] on the shoulders [of previous studies] than, challenged and challenging, run[ning] by their side” `%>>MOUZ&kssna %

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Some of the “patterns” we have identified (e.g. the novelty of climate change for this type of W]K=VMh=_MWVr!_LE!B`]]EV_!JWB`^!WV![E]JW]U=VBE|!U=g!=T^W!L=dE!=!LE`]M^_MB!d=TÈ!JW]!J`]_LE]! ]EÊ=]BL! MV_EVDMVK! =_! =V=TghMVK! LWer! WTDr! T=]KEr! _EBLVMB=T! JM]U^! =]E! DE=TMVK! eM_L! KTWA=T! BL=VKEû! 'WTTWeMVK! -EeM^! Ö! 4M_BLMEr! eE! B=V! talk about “inferential generalization” VW_! _=]KE_MVK!=!JW]U!WJ!]E[]EÊV_=_MdEVE^^!A`_!_]=V^JE]=AMTM_g!AE_eEEV!BWVK]ÈV_!BWV_Ef_^t!

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Ingénieurs Canada. (2011). Protocole d’ingénierie du CVIIP pour l’évaluation de la vulnérabilité DE^!MVJ]=^ tructures et l’adaptation au changement climatique. !

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O’Brien, K. (2016). Climate change and social transformations: is it time for a quantum leap? 7HMA]# )OVAT@HU>HRMHO;T]# 2AZHA[Uh# "MHN;VA# "G;OFA r! {{ë|r! íçî –íéíu! L__[txxDWMuW]KxçåuçååéxeBBuêçè!

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Ostrom, E. (2015). Governing the commons : the evolution of institutions for collective action. #=UA]MDKE!7VMdE]^M_gu!

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Vanderlinden, J. (2015). Prévoir l’imprévu. In "ATHU>PRA# $OZHTPOOANAOV# AV# TAM;VHPOU# HOVATO;VHPO;MAU u!2?4*5u!

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' 2 3 1 1 Quel type d’analyse économique peut !0..&/5'$&4'065,-4'40/5=,-4' !0..&/5'4&'104&'-!'26&45,0/'%&'-!' (53&'.0#,-,4''1063',/)03.&3'&5''26,1&3' &))&$5,7&.&/5'!113013,'4'&5' 13,4&'&/'$0.15&'%&4'$0//!,44!/$&4'463' les gestionnaires d’infrastructure et les 10633!,&/5'(53&'!%!15'4'1063'.,&68' -&4',.1!$54'1044,#-&4'%6'$+!/*&.&/5' !,%&3'"'.,&68',/5'*3&3'-&4',.1!$54' 4>,/4$3,3&'%!/4'-&'130$&4464'%&'%'$,4,0/' $-,.!5,26&'!68'%'$,%&634' 1044,#-&4'%6'$+!/*&.&/5'$-,.!5,26&' &5'!.'-,03&3'-!'*067&3/!/$&'%&' '$0/0.,26&4''<' %!/4'-&634'$+0,8''<'''' l’adaptation ? '

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~~Appendices, p 2 / 83 ,EKH KD IOIJ:C9 <9HHEL?4?H9 484FJ; 4KN 7>4D=9C9DJI 7B?C4J?GK9I U 89I 7EDD4?II4D79I I7?9DJ?~~

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Appendices, p 3 / 83 bdX``EH?PED4B9KH<9D<;J;OB ' + K@PK?NB (&'*

~~§ 0BOSBJPNBPFBJOS,SABOSK?OBNR>PFKJOS 59G>5?@G ,SQJBSWPQABSABSH>S AK@QIBJP>PFKJS+~~

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§ 3JPWNYP LKQN PKQO PTLBO d’informations, BSLWNFBJ@BO# @KJJ>FOO>J@BO# BSBILHBO# KLFJFKJO# AK@QIBJPO NBH>PFCO U + ?4I[ § 4> @KILNWEBJOFKJ ABO BJGBQS AB @E>MQB IWPFBN# HB N>LLKNP 9D< ABO AFCCWNBJPBO >@PFRFPWO AB DBOPFKJ BP d’exploitation U H> IWPWK BP >Q @HFI>P# l’identification !KQ L>O" AQ @E>JDBIBJP @HFI>PFMQB @KIIB BJGBQ# l’information AFOLKJF?HB%JW@BOO>FNB# HBO IKA>HFPW ABO LNFOBO AB AW@FOFKJ$

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~~Appendices, p 4 / 83 !!~~

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« EXPLIQUER LE CONTEXTE DE L’INTERVIEW Au vu des changements climatiques déjà en cours mais dont les impacts à l’échelle régionale sont encore incertains, l’adaptation devient un défi majeur pour les infrastructures. Il s’agit de parvenir à passer d’un modèle de décision qui pouvait se fonder sur les expériences passées à un modèle capable de prendre en compte le caractère incertain et nouveau des conditions climatiques futures. Ce projet fait l’hypothèse que l’analyse économique peut être un intermédiaire utile entre l’analyse des impacts phys iques du changement climatique et la prise de décision. De nombreux outils économiques d’aide à la décision ont été développés mais ne sont forcément appropriés. Notre objectif est de poser les questions du choix et de l’appropriation de ces outils et de leur rôle pour la prise en compte des questions d’adaptation.

Cette thèse se propose ainsi d'analyser la manière dont les connaissances scientifiques sur le changement climatique sont appropriées par des décideurs économiques tels que les gestionnaires d’infrastructures et la façon dont l’analyse économique pourrait être plus efficacement mobilisée pour les traduire en éléments opérationnels de prise de décision d’adaptation.

~~En partenariat avec SNCF/SNCF Réseau (DDD), ADEME et I4CE~~

~~Approche : enquête de terrain – entretien~~

Cette interview intervient en phase amont du projet/exploratoire, à un moment où la formulation précise des questions de recherche est encore à affiner. Compréhension du contexte, des jeux d’acteurs, des etc.

INCONVENIENTS ET AVANTAGES - Le fait de vous interviewer environ une heure présente le seul inconvénient de la démarche de cette interview. - Les avantages, par contre, de cette interview sont collectifs et ne peuvent que vous impacter positivement d’une façon indirecte.

~~COLLECTE ET TRAITEMENT DE DONNEES Afin de pouvoir traiter l’ensemble des informations que cette entrevue va nous fournir, cette interview sera enregistrée si vous le permettez.~~

~~Chaque fichier-interview serait anonyme, un numéro aléatoire lui sera attribué.~~

~~Pour chaque interview, on procède par une transcription, une sauvegarde sous forme de fichier anonyme.~~

Seuls les interviewers peuvent intervenir dans la procédure d’enregistrement et de transcription des interviews qui les concernent. Cette intervention ne sera jamais révélée publique. Quelques informations de votre interview peuvent être utilisées en public sans que ceci vous soit associé en tant que personne .

~~VOTRE PARTCIPATION Votre participation est volontaire et vous pouvez arrêter cette interview quand ceci vous semble nécessaire ».~~

~~Appendices, p 5 / 83 $/&!&)$&!* /(").&–&&).",0&"1-&#*,&.%"& 2-"3-./!2&&)&.%"&(*).+"''&",&,"$&*)&~~

~~"E;<52=(AC72>4=7( –(2H#7OECH76#IC#>BI7GM>7N77H# #~~

\#Bonjour, et merci beaucoup d’avoir accepté cet entretien, l’idée est qu’il prenne la forme d’une discussion qui, à E2GI>G#67#57GI2>B7H#FJ7HI>CBH#FJ7#?7#HCJ=2>I7G2>H#MCJH#ECH7G#BCJH#2A8B7#M7GH#@7H#HJ?7IH#FJ>#MCJH#H7A4@7GCBI#@7H#E@JH# E7GI>B7BIH[#(7#MCJH#EGCECH7#67#5CAA7B57G#E2G#MCJH#G7EG9H7BI7G#IG8H#4G>8M7A7BI#@7#5CBI7OI7#7I#@7H#5CB6>I>CBH#67# l’entretien _#comme l’exigence la #A9I= ode scientifique d’enquête [#

"1*&$+/",( &"( )(."1."( !/( *,)%".(O( 57# EGC?7I# 2# ECJG# C4?75I>;# 6d2B2@PH7G# @2# A2B>8G7# 6CBI# @7# <7HI>CBB2>G7# 7I# l’exploitant d’une infrastructure telle qu’un réseau de transport ferroviaire est en capacité de s’adapter aux 5CBIG2>BI7H# environnementales et aux dynamiques de changement. Il explore notamment comment l’analyse 95CBCA>FJ7#ECJGG2>I#:IG7#E@JH#7;;>5257A7BI#AC4>@>H97#ECJG#IG26J>G7#57II7#5CBB2>HH2B57#7B#9@9A7BIH#CE9G2I>CBB7@H# 67#EG>H7#67#695>H>CB[#

~~'>;70@'?A6B6'<+>'!J"A-;?@G' J*;>6:','8+')&!#'H'%#J(A6C'/+:?'8+'>246;:J'~~

EXPLIQUER LE CONTEXTE DE L’ENTRETIEN (O( 57II7#>BI7GM>7N#>BI7GM>7BI#62BH#@2#f 8A7 #E=2H7#6J#EGC?7IX#7I#2#ECJG#C4?75I>;# de territorialiser la réflexion, de l’inscrire dans ce qui est la réalité des #EG2I>FJ7H#67#<7HI>CB#HJG#@7#I7GG2>B[#$@@7#2#ECJG# but de m’aider à mieux comprendre les enjeux de chaque métier, le rapport des différentes activités de gestion et d’exploitation à la météo et au climat, l’identification (ou pas) du changement climatique comme enjeu, l’information 6>HECB>4@7^B957HH2>G7X#@7H#AC62@>I9H#67H#EG>H7H#67#695>H>CB[##

à#/PE7#6d>B;CGA2I>CBH#>AECGI2BI7H#7I#ECJGFJC>#Z#ICJI7#>B;C#`7OE9G>7B57X#5CBB2>HH2B57X#7O7AE@7X#CE>B>CBX#6C5[[[a# G7@2I>M7#Z#`>a#2JO#EGC57HHJH#67#695>H>CBX#`>>a#3#@2#A2B>8G7#6CBI#@d25I>M>I9#7HI^E7JI#:IG7#>B;@J7B597#E2G#67H#E2G2A8IG7H# 5@>A2I>FJ7HX#`>>>a#2JO#I7B62B57H#6d9MC@JI>CB#7I#7B?7JO#`>B57GI2>BH^5CAE@7O7Ha#2JOFJ7@H#.*"HI#5CB;GCBI97[#

$( )(0"($"(.-(".(>0>(.>#"-( - )7#;2>I#67#MCJH#>BI7GM>7N7G#7BM>GCB#JB7#=7JG7#EG9H7BI7#@7#H7J@#>B5CBM9B>7BI#67#@2#69A2G5=7#67#57II7#>BI7GM>7N[# - )7H#2M2BI2<7H#de cette interview sont collectifs et ne peuvent que vous impacter positivement d’une façon >B6>G75I7[#

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~~Appendices, p 6 / 83 *7CD@??2=(:F<67=~~

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Appendices, p 7 / 83 # SP "E(D<(M( +7GHE75I>M7HX#G7@2I>CB#2J#5=2B<7A7BI ( ( _ "2G25I8G7#BCJM72JX#HE95>;>FJ7#67#57#HJ?7I#W## '! '"@DIJG7# _+CJM7Q_MCJH#BCJH#5CBH7>@@7G#67H#E7GHCBB7H#3#5CBI25I7G#ECJG#BCIG7#9IJ67#W#"CCG6CBB97H#W##

_*CJH#2MCBH#5CJM7GI#@7H#6>;;9G7BIH#I=8A7H#FJ7#?d2M2>H#EG9_>67BI>;>9X#MG2>A7BI#IG8H#JI>@7#ECJG#A>7JO#5CAEG7B6G7[#1CP7Q#JB# 2JIG7#HJ?7I^EC>BI#FJ7#BCJH#Bd2JG>CBH#E2H#24CG69#7I#FJ>#MCJH#H7A4@7G2>I#>BI9G7HH2BI#W##

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~~Appendices, p 8 / 83 !~~

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Appendices, p 9 / 83 '9!IKGC9M!89!M?:L9! Cet atelier s’inscrit dans le cadre du projet de thèse intitulé \! %.$$+**#'..#*$%.$.$'%*/'&',0%.$.0-$(%.$ changements climatiques à l’analyse économique pour la prise de décision en vue de l’adaptation des '*&-#./-0$/0-%. !]!E9F;!I3K!1@P@3F!!"+*0".!LNK!D3!I;K@G89!jhim_jhip[!! 9!IKGC9M!3!IGNK!G5C96M@=!8c3F3DRL9K!D3!E3F@: re dont le gestionnaire et l’exploitant d’une infrastructure telle qu’un réseau de transport ferroviaire peu P9F t s’approprier les connaissances scientifiques 9Q@LM3FM9L!LNK!D9!6?3F>9E9FM!6D@E3M@JN9[!! %D!9QIDGK9!FGM3EE9FM!JN9DD9L!LGFM!D9L!;PGDNM@GFL!9FP@L3>935D9L!IGNK!IK9F8K9!9F!6GEIM9!D9!63K36M:K9! incertain des conditions climatiques futures à l’échelle régionale !Z! _ ,N9DD9! @F=GKE3M@GF! L6@9FM@=@JN9! 8@LIGF@5D9X! JN9DD9! @F=GKE3M@GF! NM@D9X! JN9D! K3IIGKM! 3N! EGF89!L6@9FM@=@JN9!W!! _ ,N9DL!3K>NE9FML!IGNK!M9F@K!6GEIM9!89!69!I3K3E:MK9!83FL!D9L!8;6@L@GFL!W!,N9D!KHD9!IGNK! l’analyse économique ? ! _ Quels outils mobiliser pour s’approprier ce sujet ? Comment décider malgré les incertitudes ? Comment articuler cette problématique avec d’autres objectifs de gestion !W! _ ,N9DD9L! évolutions des usages et des pratiques ? Quelles formes d’adaptation ? Des GIM@GFL!M96?F@JN9L!E3@L!;>3D9E9FM!E3F3>;K@3D9L!9M!GK>3F@L3M@GFF9DD9L[! 9M!3M9D@9K! 9M!3M9D@9K!IKGDGF>9!D’étude détaillée d’une portion du système ferroviaire initiée en 2016 entre N AE9L! et Perpignan. Il fait suite à une série d’entretien L!E9F;9!83FL!D3!K;>@GF!9F!=@F!8 ‘année dernière et est GK>3F@L;!3P96!D9!+HD9!"!!!89!D3!!/!*66@M3F@9X!D3!8@K96M@GF!8N!8;P9DGII9E9FM!8NK35D9!89!.) #!9M!D3! direction de l’environnement et du développement !8NK35D9!89!.) #!-;L93N[!

~~Il se propose d’ouvrir un espace où mettre en lumière et en discussion certaines caractéristiques et @EID@63M@GFL!=GF83E9FM3D9L!8N!6?3F>9E9FM!6D@E3M@JN9X!FGM3EE9FM!Z!!~~

_ '3!69KM@MN89!89!6?3F>9E9FML!9F!6GNKL!3P3FM!MGNM!63K36M;K@L;L!I3K!NF9!IDNL!=GKM9!P3K@35@D@M;!Y!D3! IGLL@5@D@M;!89!L@MN3M@GFL!E;M;GKGDG>@JN9L!FGNP9DD9L! ; des conjonctions inédites d’évènements. !

_ '9L!6GFL;JN9F69L!4!9F!M@K9K!IGNK!D9!EG8:D9!=9KKGP@3@K9!83FL!LGF!9FL9E5D9!3N!K9>3K8!89!L9L!=@F3D@M;L! 9M!3N_89D4!89L!3LI96ML!M96?F@JN9L!a6GFL;JN9F69L!LNK!D9!EG8:D9!;6GFGE@JN9!9M!D9!L9KP@69!G==9KM! 3NQ!NL3>9KLX!9M6[b[ !

~~L’atelier se déroulera en trois temps : !~~

~~i[ 0F!IK9E@9K!M9EIL!6GFL36K;!3NQ!IK3M@JN9L!36MN9DD9L!JN@!L9!IKGIGL9!au travers de l’exemple 89L! 63F@6ND9L!de revenir sur l’analyse iss N9!89L!9FMK9M@9FL!E9F;L!83FL!D3!K;>@GF[!!!~~

j[ 0F!89NQ@:E9!M9EIL!8;8@;!3NQ!6GFF3@LL3F69L!8GFM!GF!8@LIGL9!LNK!D9L!6?3F>9E9FML!6D@E3M@JN9L! 9M!D9L!;M;L!4!P9F@KX!3NMGNK!89!JN9DJN9L!;D;E9FML!IK;L9FM;L!I3K!NF9!6?9K6?9NL9!9F!6D@E3MGDG>@9! a_>D3;!&;S;JN9DX!%+.'^'. "b!9M!d’un récit !89!69!JN9!IGNKK3@M!

~~k[ 0F!MKG@L@:E9!M9EIL!6GFL36K;!3NQ!383IM3M@GFL!IGLL@5D9L!3N!K9>3K8!89L!IGLL@5D9L!;PGDNM@GFL! 6D@E3M@JN9L!9M!4!D9NKL!@EID@63M@GFL!LNK!D9!LRLM:E9!=9KKGP@3@K9[!!! ! !~~

~~j! !~~

~~Appendices, p 10 / 83 +KG>K3EE9!89!D3!E3M@F;9!Z!q?!_!ik?! !~~

q?_q?jh! %=CA>3D2C9>=' présentation de l’atelier, !IK;3E5ND9!E;M?G8GDG>@JN9!d!;M?@JN9X!MGNK! 89!M35D9 ! q?jh_ih?ih! .4=' L09E91=' !5?>D4BH! 15’ M! –' !@L6NLL@GF! 89L! IK3M@JN9L! 36MN9DD9L! Z! NF9! adaptation au fil de l’eau ' ! -9MGNK!LNK!D9L!9FMK9M@9FL! ! L’exemple des vagues de chaleur !

~~_ !9B2DBB9>='O'' ! -;36M@GFL!8@K96M9L!4!D3!IK;L9FM3M@GF!! ! (@L9!9F!I9KLI96M@P9!~~

ih?ih _ih?mm ! Temps 2 : proposition d’une lecture de la connaissance sur le changement 2;9<1C9@D4' ' _ +A5B4=C1C9>=' L!7;15' &5F5@D4;H' 15’ M' –' 6?3F>9E9FM! 6D@E3M@JN9X! P3K@35@D@M;! 9M! 9QMK@JN9L!' _ !9B2DBB9>='P'' ! -;36M@GFL! 8@K96M9! 4! D3! IK;L9FM3M@GF! 9M! 8@L6NLL@GF! LNK! D9 L! @F=GKE3M@GFL! nécessaires à l’adaptation !

ih?mm_ii?ih! +1DB4''' ! ii?ih_ij?mh! .4='L!7;15'&5F5@D4;'N'09E91='!5?>D4BH' 10’ M'K'0F!;M;!8@==@6@D9!89E3@F!W!' _ !9B2DBB9>='Q'' ! "M!3DGKL!Z!JN9DD9L!@EID@63M@GFL!W!,N9DD9L!383IM3M@GFL!W!! ! Quels types d’actions pourraient être prises par anticipation ? !

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Appendices, p 11 / 83 ,N9DJN9L!;D;E9FML!89!E;M?G89!Z! '9L!3M9D@9KL!89!69!MRI9!LGFM!NF!89L!=GKE3ML!JN@!I9NP9FM!K3I?@JN9L! GN! 9F6GK9! d’entretien L, pour produire des données qui nourriront l’analyse [! L’interaction en groupe perm 9M! d’échanger et de mettre en discussion les visions individuelles. !

~~0F!M9D!3M9D@9K!L9!P9NM!~~

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~~Appendices, p 26 / 83~~

~~ADAPTATION AU CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE~~

~~— Politique~~

Suite à la sortie de différents documents nationaux et internationaux tels que : ¾ les rapports du GIEC ; ¾ la Communication du 16 avril 2013 de la Commission européenne sur la stratégie européenne d’adaptation au changement climatique ; ¾ le premier plan national d’adaptation au changement climatique 2011 -2016 (PNACC) lancé par la loi Grenelle 1 ; ¾ le rapport Jouzel sur l’évolution du climat français à l’horizon 2050 ;

SNCF a pleinement pris conscience que les évolutions climatiques vont nécessiter une adaptation du système ferroviaire d’ici à 2050 et 2100. Compte t enu de la longue durée de vie des équipements et infrastructures ferroviaires, ces évolutions doivent être anticipées. Celles-ci sont de plusieurs ordres : ¾ l’augmentation du niveau général des températures, en particulier dans la moitié sud du pays ; ¾ la diminution probable des précipitations ; ¾ l’évolution du trait de côte ; ¾ la fréquence accrue des évènements extrêmes (canicules, fortes précipitations et inondations, tempêtes…).

Pour adapter le système ferroviaire, SNCF développe une méthode aux approches complémentaires : — une vision de la résilience du système ferroviaire dans son ensemble en croisant une vision de détail centrée sur les questions de confort ou d’accessibilité des clients et une vision liée à l’exploitation ferroviaire ; — une différenciation entre les enjeux d’adaptation dans la conception des nouvelles in frastructures ou les travaux de régénération par rapport aux enjeux d’exploitation et de gestion des circulations — une contribution aux groupes de travail ad hoc des instances de normalisation nationales (AFNOR) et européennes (CEN/CENELEC) ; — la réflex ion locale en lien avec d‘autres parties prenantes (clients, État, collectivités locales, autres gestionnaires d’infrastructure).

En 2016, la thèse de 3 ans lancée en 2015 en partenariat avec l’Université de Saint Quentin en Yvelines, I4CE (Institute for Climate Economics), l’Ademe, SNCF et SNCF Réseau sur l’appropriation des connaissances scientifiques pour la prise de décision en matière d’adaptation au changement climatique a suivi son cours et va inclure une étude de cas en Languedoc-Roussillon. Elle a donné lieu à la publication d ‘un premier papier de réflexion générale intitulé « Modernisation du système ferroviaire français et changement climatique » : http://www.i4ce.org/wp-core/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/PC-Modernisation-du-syst%C3%A8me-ferroviaire-et- changement-climatique-1.pdf

~~Par ailleurs, deux études ont été lancées en 2016 avec un consultant spécialisé dans les questions Climat/énergie :~~

- la première étude porte sur des indicateurs changement climatique au niveau national définis en fonction de l’analyse sur plusieurs années de la météo-sensibilité de l’exploitation ferroviaire. En effet, la réflexion climatique et celle sur la météo-sensibilité sont étroitement liées.;

- la seconde étude porte sur le périmètre Transilien et vise à identifier les conséquences du changement climatique pour l’exploitation ferroviaire et les clients et à proposer des recommandations d’adaptation

~~Les résultats de ces deux études sont attendus en 2017.~~

~~),;;:<>!)*#!%<:?;1!*(!$!RPQSE!;;SQJSR!~~

~~Appendices, p 27 / 83 “[...] Heat softens the sciences~~

[...] Other sciences enlisted by SNCF include economic analysis and organizational sociology. SNCF and SNCF R éseau (Network) are co- financing, with ADEME (the French environment and energy management agency) and I4CE (the Paris-based Institute for Climate Economics) a thesis entitled “From scientific knowledge on climate change to economic analysis for decision-making for infrastructure adaptation” 1.This project aims to analyse how scientific knowledge about climate change is adapted by economic decision-makers such as infrastructure managers and how economic analysis could be more effectively leveraged to translate this into operational elements for adaptation-related decision making.

Vivian D époues, research fellow at I4CE and ADEME PhD student at CEARC (Cultures, Environments, Arctic, Representations, Climate in collaboration with the University of Versailles Saint-Quentin- en-Yvelines and the Paris-Saclay University), took the Languedoc rail artery as her field of investigation. Together with its feeder lines, this artery combines most of the major issues related to climate change: heatwaves, proximity to the sea (some parts of the line are only one or two metres above level) and frequent (and unfortunately often fatal) floods.

~~Climate change: the time for action is now~~

The thesis presented in the previous section fits well with central question concerning adaptation today: decision-making. How can a company, which is necessarily focused on the short term (for SNCF, ensuring the safety and comfort of four million passengers every day), reflect and act to take climate change into consideration?

This is the heart of the matter: effective adaptation of the planet/ of the French territory requires spending time and especially money to plan for the future. In a world in crisis, this is not the least of our difficulties. SNCF is, as with many other things, a witness, a fairly faithful reflection of our country. [...] »

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~~Appendices, p 28 / 83 ! !~~

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ! Point Climat n°42 ! Modernisation du système ferroviaire français et changement climatique Oser penser des transformations profondes pour ! ! des réseaux robustes et adaptés ! ! Paris, novembre 2016 Rédigé par Vivian Dépoues

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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! r!c!+M=IgGL!d_!< locage dans des choix qui pourraient s’avérer couteux et peu u!La dette de la SNCF s’élève @L!sqrw! à 52 milliards d’euros, dont 44 HT?G=G@TW!?9LR!TL@!B=MLMKG@!OMRSg=9Q

~~! Point Climat n°42 - Modernisation du système ferroviaire et changement climatique, Novembre 2016 – I4CE f! !!~~

~~Appendices, p 29 / 83 ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ! !~~

A chaque grand moment de développement des d’évolution du monde, quelques variables qui pourraient infrastructures d’un pays correspond une certaine être particulièrement motrices des changements à venir. En conjonction de technologies - énergétiques, de transport, de jouant de ces variables sur un spectre suffisamment large, communication 7 et de financement - mais également un il est possible de dessiner des scénarios contrastés de modèle organisationnel et une vision du développement du l’ave nir qui éclairent sous un angle nouveau le présent. territoire. La structure des réseaux de transport d’une L’objectif n’est pas tant d’imaginer de quoi demain sera fait économie bas carbone et adaptée aux changements de manière certaine (et après ?/what’s next ?) mais bien ce climatiques ne pourra qu’être très différente du modèle qu’entrainerait un futur possible ou probable dominant au siècle dernier mais reposera en Europe en (et si ?/what if ?)9. Le secteur du transport et des mobilités grande partie sur les systèmes dont nous héritons qui est coutumier de ce type de démarches et sait bien explorer doivent se transformer. Les experts s’accordent pour dire les scénarios technologiques et/ou d’ évolution de la que des infrastructures compatibles avec les objectifs demande. Ces exercices permettent de nourrir les réflexions climatiques ne seront pas beaucoup plus chères à condition et les débats sur le développement de nouvelles de bien s’y prendre, suffisamment en amont : au moment de infrastructures, l’aménagement des territoires, l’évolution la planification, de la conception et du renouvellement des des modes de vie, etc. (ex. Transports 2050 10 en France, systèmes. travaux du McKinsey Global Institute 11 , études préalables à la réalisation de grands projets type LGV). L’intégration du La transition énergétique contribue à clarifier l’horizon en changement climatique dans ces réflexions est par contre fixant un cap . Il s’agit maintenant de s’ assurer que les choix nouvelle et potentiellement disruptive, elle se décompose en qui sont faits et les arbitrages qui sont rendus sont en deux questions : cohérence avec ce cap. La modernisation et le renouvellement des infrastructures de mobilité mêlent des § Celle de la place du secteur du transport dans la enjeux de politique industrielle, de protection de dynamique de transition vers une économie neutre en l’environnement, de développement territorial et de maintien carbone.!Cette dimension recouvre à la fois des enjeux de certains services considérés comme acquis 8. Ce sont d’efficacité énergétique : quelle(s) source(s), quel(s) des processus complexes, influencés par de multiples vecteur(s) d’énergie, quel mix technologique 12 , etc. ; et de facteurs et marqués par des incertitudes profondes. Rien ne sobriété : quelle évolution des modes de transports, des permet d’affirmer que les tendances que nous lisons sont usages et des formes même de nos mobilités 13 . '!! totalement robustes. Il ne faut pas négliger le caractère § Celle des conséquences sur le secteur des transports extrêmement rapide, possiblement brutal, irréversible et des impacts climatiques que nous n ’avons et que toujours fondamentalement incertains des changements nous n’aurons pas su éviter et le rôle des acteurs de climatiques et de leurs implications, ni sous-estimer la mobilité dans l’adaptation de nos sociétés et de nos l’ampleur des transformations à venir . Parfois de simples économies à ces changements. ajustements suffiront mais pas toujours. Si la première question fait l’objet de nombreux travaux et Un peu de prospective climatique et réflexions et a déjà été au centre de démarches prospectives (voir par exemple les travaux de l’ADEME 14 ou ferroviaire certaines démarches internes d’ entreprises), la seconde Dans un contexte de transitions, marqué par les offre un terrain encore peu arpenté. Même sans réaliser incertitudes, il est toujours intéressant d’explorer une formellement l’exercice de prospective qui demanderait diversité de futurs possibles. C’est l’objet de la prospective d’approfondir plusieurs scénarios de changement qui procède en identifiant, parmi la multiplicité des facteurs climatique (par exemple un scénario +2°C, un scénario plus

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~~"!$! Point Climat n°42 - Modernisation du système ferroviaire et changement climatique, Novembre 2016 – I4CE !~~

Appendices, p 30 / 83 ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ! ! probable de +3 ou +4°C et un scénario pessimiste de +5 ou pourrait ressembler un monde fortement impacté par le +6°C), il est possible de tracer quelques lignes d’analyse à changement climatique. même d’alimenter les discussions sur l’avenir d’un secteur A l’échelle de la France, la série des Rapport s Jouzel et les comme le transport ferroviaire. Certains acteurs de la filière données disponibles sur le portail Drias (ou le portail Climat ont déjà conduit ce type d’études dans le cadre de leurs HD pour une visualisation rapide et grand public) proposent réflexions prospectives. C’est par exemple le cas du des scénarios régionalisés de référence décrivant le climat transporteur DHL 15 dont certaines des hypothèses et des au 21 ème siècle (figure). conclusions nous ont servi de source d’inspiration ici. Pour un éclairage sectoriel, l’atlas Impact2C décrit quels ET SI NOUS VIVIONS DANS UN MONDE A +3, +4 OU +6°C ? seraient les impacts sur différents pans de l’économie d’un Les projections et travaux de recherche existants réchauffement moyen de 2°C (sans présager du moment 16 permettent d’imaginer dans les grandes lignes à quoi auquel ce seuil sera atteint) .

Les principales incertitudes qui demeurent sur les fournir des projections assez précises et fiables de ce à quoi changements climatiques concernent la trajectoire de pourrait ressembler le climat de demain 17 . réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre que nous Parmi les grandes tendances à l’horizon 2050 - d’autant plus allons suivre. D’un scénario à l’autre , ces trajectoires marquées on étudie des scénarios d’émissions pessimistes peuvent significativement varier dans la 2 ème moitié du siècle - on peut retenir deux types d’impacts : mais sont relativement proches pour les décennies à venir. Choisir de travailler avec un scénario d’émission en § Des changements progressifs et notamment : une hausse particulier – miser sur l’atteinte des objectifs de Paris ou au des températures moyennes de 0,6 à 1,3°C, une hausse contraire privilégier un scénario dans lequel l’empreinte significative du niveau de la mer et un décalage des carbone de nos économies resterait très forte - n’est pas une saisons. question scientifique mais bien un choix stratégique § Une évolution de la variabilité des évènements dépendant de la vision que l’on porte sur l’évolution du climatiques extrêmes : augmentation du nombre de jours monde : quel futur veut-on explorer, quelle tendance de vagues de chaleur en été (plus de canicules et de perçoit-on ? De tels choix sont communs pour tout décideur sécheresses), diminution des extrêmes froids et épisodes habitué à avancer dans un environnement incertain. Une de pluies intenses plus fréquents 18 . fois un scénario choisi, les scientifiques sont en mesure de !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! rv !"'+b!"@JGU@QGLE!3MKMQQMVb!+MEGRSG=R!sqvq!m!2=@L9QGM!2ST?Xb!isqrsj! rx ! /MTQ! ?@R! GLDMQK9SGMLR! OJTR! ?BS9GJJB@R! MT! OJTR! ROB=GDGPT@R_! TL! SQ9U9GJ! ?B?GB! VVVb?FJb=MKe=MLS@LSe?9Ke+M=9Jh(K9E@ReEqe9

~~! Point Climat n°42 - Modernisation du système ferroviaire et changement climatique, Novembre 2016 – I4CE f! #!~~

~~Appendices, p 31 / 83 ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ! !~~

Une pluralité de risques est associée à ces impacts, par avec la variation des productions primaires, de la demande exemple l’accroissement et l’extension des feux de forêts, touristique, du coût de l’énergie ; les contraintes pesant sur une augmentation des r isques d’inondations urbaines ou les conditions d’exploitation des matériels ou encore encore, la réduction de la superficie des domaines skiables. l’univers règlementaire devraient être modifiés.

L’horizon 2050 souvent utilisé pour établir les projections est Parmi toutes les possibilités d’évolution , les hypothèses particulièrement critique dans le secteur des transports. Il retenues dans le scénario « Global Resilience – local correspond en effet à la durée de vie des infrastructures et adaptation » de DHL illustrent très bien le type de questions des équipements qui sont conçus et construits aujourd’h ui. intéressantes à se poser. Les auteurs de cette étude Par exemple, une voie de chemin de fer a vocation à rester envisagent notamment la multiplication des évènements en place plusieurs dizaines d’années , un matériel roulant extrêmes mettant en tension les chaînes logistiques dont la concept ion commencerait aujourd’hui serait mis en internationales et source de coûts importants. En réaction, service après 2020 et circulerait encore en 2050. ils postulent une régionalisation des circuits de production et de consommation. Le maintien de la sécurité Les analyses de vulnérabilité existantes des systèmes d’approvisionnement entre les boucles régionales ferroviaires – notamment à l’étranger 19 – tendent à deviendrait alors une priorité. La fiabilité prendrait plus de démontrer que ces derniers sont relativement robustes (i.e. place dans le service de transport que seraient capables capables de continuer à opérer même si les conditions d’offrir différents opérateurs et deviend rait un avantage évoluent) et seront a priori peu impactés directement par les concurrentiel fort. Garantir cette fiabilité demanderait le évolutions de températures ou de précipitations moyennes. développement de systèmes plus redondants, proposant Ils sont par contre beaucoup plus vulnérables aux des options de secours et des solutions de repli telles que évènements extrêmes comme les inondations, les vagues des entrepôts pour mettre les marchandises transportées à de chaleurs ou les tempêtes. l’abri en cas d’interruption du trafic. Ces installati ons Jusqu’ici le système a pu être conçu et entretenu en seraient bien évidemment coûteuses mais jugées s’appuyant sur les statistiques météo passées établissant nécessaires par la société car sans elles, chaque rupture un climat considéré comme stable : des températures des circulations aurait un impact économique inacceptable. moye nnes, des périodes de retour d’événement s extrêmes, Une des dynamiques notables de ce scénario est le et donc des probabilités d’ occurrence et un risque bien basculement dans un univers économique très différent, circonscrit contre lequel se prémunir. Mais ces statistiques moins marqué par la recherche d’optimisation des sont remises en cause par les changements climatiques. ressources et de maximisation de l’efficacité que par celle Les conditions limites de fonctionnement pourraient être de robustesse et de sécurité. Les réorganisations atteintes beaucoup plus souvent, multipliant les situations territoriales et sectorielles seraient également très de crise et renforçant le stress sur l’organisation du importantes, favorisant les acteurs les plus agiles et système 20 .! capables d’opérer à des échelles différentes.

UNE SOCIETE QUI S ’ADAPTERAIT Une autre tendance à explorer est celle de l’évolution de la demande de mobilité à cause des évolutions du climat. Les Certaines voix s’élèvent dès aujourd’hui pour agir au flux touristiques pourraient par exemple être parmi les maximum par anticipation et se préparer aux changements premiers affectés en hiver - avec une diminution des à venir. De nombreux travaux démontrent en effet qu’une activités de sports d’hiver en moyenne mon tagne, la neige action précoce permettrait d’éviter de douloureuses crises se raréfiant – et en été, avec un gain d’attractivité de littoraux 21 et serait économiquement bien moins couteuse . Que ces plus septentrionaux que ceux qui sont actuellement les plus voix soient entendues ou non, il est certain que l’on assistera fréquentés. à des adaptations, à minima réactives au fur et à mesure que les changements seront constatés et ressentis. Même FIABILITE ET CONFORT CLIMATIQUE : NOUVEAUX ELEMENTS DE sans pouvoir prévoir comment chaque acteur socio- DIFFERENTIATION ? économique va réagir individuellement, il est facile Cet exercice ouvre plusieurs axes de réflexion. d’imag iner que les déterminants stratégiques de la mobilité Historiquement, chaque mode de transport s’est développ é seront affectés. Les flux de déplacements devraient évoluer

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~~$!$! Point Climat n°42 - Modernisation du système ferroviaire et changement climatique, Novembre 2016 – I4CE !~~

Appendices, p 32 / 83 ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ! ! en mettant l’accent sur certaines caractéristiques. Dans un futur où l’environnement physique traversé sera L’automobile a misé sur le confort du véhicule individuel et radicalement différent, les priorités et les spécificités de l’autonomie qu’il procure, l’avion offre la possibilité d’aller chaque mode pourraient être réinterrogées. vite et loin, jusqu’ici le train a insisté sur la sécurité et la vitesse et est très attendu sur sa ponctualité.

~~! ! !~~

~~! ! ! ! Anciennes affiches publicitaires : arguments marketing mis en avant par différents modes de transport, source Gallica '~~

Fiabilité. Si aujourd’hui ce qui compte est d’aller vite, loin et Développer la fiabilité et le confort comme nouveaux points d’être à l’heure , peut-être que demain les voyageurs et les forts du transport ferroviaire pourrait représenter une transporteurs de marchandises seront surtout prêts à payer nouvelle source de valeur commerciale pour les clients et pour être sûrs d’arriver sans encombre dans un temps sociale pour les territoires. La prospective expose ce type raisonnable même si l’heure exacte d’arrivée n’est pas de pistes, mettre l’accent sur tel ou tel atout relève ensuite précise à la minute. Fiabilité et sécurité deviendraient ainsi de choix stratégiques et politiques. des arguments de différentiation encore plus importants que SOMMES -NOUS SUR LA BONNE VOIE ? la vitesse et la ponctualité. Alors que les modes de transport sur un territoire sont à la fois en concurrence et Bien entendu , le changement climatique n’est pas le seul complémentaires, être celui sur lequel on peut toujours facteur déterminant des choix qui doivent être faits. Il peut compter peut devenir un atout majeur. par contre être un prisme au travers duquel examiner certaines des options favorisées aujourd’hui : Confort. Les conditions de voyage ont toujours constitué un élément de différenciation entre solutions de transport. La § Même en présence d’option s de transport concurrentes plupart des opérateurs cherchent à offrir le meilleur confort (ex. aérien, autoroutes et autocars), conserver un bon à des usagers dont le niveau d’exigence ne cesse de croître. réseau ferroviaire permettrait de disposer de plus Les paramètres climatiques sont aujourd’hui un des d’itinéraires alternatifs et donc de renforcer la résilience déterminants critiques du confort aux différentes étapes des des économies, d’autant que la transition énergétique trajets. U n transport collectif ou des lieux d’attente non pourrait mettre à mal certaines des alternatives (par protégés de la chaleur peuvent par exemple être exemple si le trafic aérien devait être réduit). rédhibitoires et inciter les usagers à choisir un déplacement § Le changement climatique est un argument de plus en véhicule individuel climatisé, peu importe la dépense justifiant le fort niveau de priorité à accorder à l’entretien énergétique ou la congestion des routes. Ce facteur est et au renouvellement des infrastructures existantes afin de encore plus important en situation perturbée, si ces réduir e leur vulnérabilité au climat et d’être certains de dernières sont appelées à se multiplier, alors il devient pouvoir compter sur elles. Choisir de maintenir les indispensa ble de s’assurer qu’elles ne sero nt pas trop ressources et l’attention alloué es aujourd’hui à la sécurité inconfortables à vivre pour les usagers et les personnels. Il et à l’entretien courant des réseaux peut être un pari en va du fonctionnement même des systèmes car un usager d’autant plus payant demain si le risque augmente. 22 ou un agent se sentant mal peut aggraver la crise . § Plusieurs grandes gares sont en cours de renouvellement. Favoriser les complexes mieux intégrés au tissu urbain, !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ss !A l’image de passagers de RER qui immobilisés dans un train non climatisé c!!9LG=TJ@!a!GL=G?@LSR!@L!RBQG@!RTQ!J@!QBR@9T!3Q9LRGJG@L!d_!+@!/9QGRG@L_!reqxesqrvb! décident de forcer l’ouverture des portes et de descendre sur les voies se VVVbJ@O9QGRG@LbDQeGLDMgO9QGRgGJ@g?@gDQ9L=@gMGR@eSQ9DG=gQ9J@LSGgRTQgJg@LR@K

~~! Point Climat n°42 - Modernisation du système ferroviaire et changement climatique, Novembre 2016 – I4CE f! %!~~

~~Appendices, p 33 / 83 ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ! !~~

adaptés aux spécificités des conditions climatiques changements climatiques et fortement influencés par les locales (ex. gares bioclimatiques) contribuerait à assurer actions prises pour y faire face. Plusieurs formats sont ce niveau de confort tout au long du voyage. La tendance envisageables pour renforcer ces interactions, au actuelle est de penser des aménagements intérieurs travers de coopérations techniques, de programmes de facilement modifiables pour s’adapter plus fa cilement à recherche communs ou encore de partenariats l’évolution des attentes clients 23 . Cette flexibilité est industriels ; indirectement un atout car elle permettra aussi de iii. La troisième est la faible capacité des outils de décision s’adapter aux évolutions du climat à moindre coût. actuels à intégrer ces dimensions. Les outils de § Le développement récent d’of fres de mobilité intégrées, planification par exemple restent encore largement couvrant les trajets « porte à porte » contribue au déterministes et s’appuient sur d es statistiques issues renforcement de la coordination entre les différents des périodes passées et des tendances, intégrant acteurs du transport 24 . L’expérience d’une telle difficilement les ruptures potentielles. Les outils coordination ne peut qu’être positive pour offrir des d’analyse économique comme l’analyse coût -bénéfice, solutions complètes aux usagers dans des situations de l’analyse -coût efficacité ou les analyses multicritères stress climatique. rencontrent également plusieurs limites, bien décrites § L’o rientation des nouveaux projets et investissements dans la littérature. Face à un phénomène comme le dans l’innovation pourraient être interrogée au regard de changement climatique : elles ont notamment beaucoup ces prospectives climatiques. Pour certains la vitesse de mal à gérer l’incertitude et l’ incapacité à attribuer des demeure un idéal de progrès comme l’illustre probabilités claires à l’évolution de paramètres auxquels l’emballement médiatique autour du projet Hyperloop. elles sont très sensibles. Cette « fascination pour la vitesse »25 est pourtant à La manière de structurer les discussions, les acteurs invités nouveau discutée, comme elle a pu l’être lorsque certains autour de la table et les outils d’aide à la décision mobilisés maires ont fait le choix de la piétonisation et de transports font partie intégr ante du processus de construction d’une publics lents en réaménagent leurs centres villes. stratégie. Comme nous l’apprennent la sociologie et les sciences de gestion 26 , les outils ne sont pas neutres : ils Des pistes et des outils pour équiper la incarnent et ils participent à la réalisation d’une certaine décision vision du monde. Les évolutions successives du secteur ferroviaire ont d’ailleurs historiquement été un des terrains La prise en compte des enjeux climatiques est encore peu privilégiés de l’élaboration et de l’expérime ntation intégrée aux prises de décision sur le développement du 27 ferroviaire. Trois raisons peuvent être avancées pour cela : d’instruments de calcul comme la valeur actualisée nette . La perte ré cente d’influence du calcul économique est aussi i. La première est le besoin d’une vision intégrative le signe, comme constaté par Y.Crozet ou O.Godard 28 , que capable d’assurer une cohérence entre les agendas les outils classiques ne sont plus en mesure de rendre politiques climatique, territorial et de transport ; compte des situations actuelles et de ce à quoi il s’a git ii. La deuxième est le manque d’interactions entre d’accorder de l’importance . En partageant ce constat, il est spécialistes du climat et acteurs des débats sur les possible et de mobiliser des outils alternatifs et/ou infrastructures qui ne permet pas la mise en discussion complémentaires capables de le dépasser. Trois de nombreux paramètres intégrés tels quels dans les dimensions sont importantes à intégrer : la transparence, la discussions – par exemple la démographie , l’évolution robustesse et enfin la flexibilité et l’agilité. de l’implantation des activités sur un territoire, de

l’urbanisation, des préférences des usagers ou des risques – alors qu’ils peuvent être très sensibles aux !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! st !c!+@R!9Q=FGS@=S@R!Q@?@RRGL@LS!J@R!E9Q@R!OMTQ!SQ9LRDMQK@Q!J@R!PT9QSG@QR!db!m%/b! mJS@QL9SGU@R! #=MLMKGPT@Rb! sweqvesqrwb! FSSOaee9JS@QL9SGU@Rg rwerqesqrwb! VVVb9DOb=MKeDQeGLDMResvyeJ@Rg9Q=FGS@=S@RgQ@?@RRGL@LSgJ@RgE9Q@Rg @=MLMKGPT@RbDQeML!SMS9J@K@LS!GLSBEQB@!TL@!9JS@QL9SGU@!:!R@R!=JG@LSR!O@L?9LS!TL@! sy! !QMY@S_! 7b! isqqujb! !9J=TJ! B=MLMKGPT@! @S! ?BKM=Q9SG@! a! ?@R! =@QSGST?@R! OF9R@!?@!SQ9U9TW!OQMJMLEBR!PTG!9!GLS@QQMKOT!J9!=GQ=TJ9SGML!?T!1#1!m!O@L?9LS! S@=FLM=Q9SGPT@R! 9T! S;SMLL@K@LS! OMJGSGPT@b! !9FG@QR! D’économie Politique, OJTRG@TQR!R@K9GL@Rb!5MGQ!a!c!+9!1m3/!OQMOMR@!?T!=MUMGSTQ9E@!OMTQ!J@R!TR9E@QR!?T! siuxj_! rvv –rxsb! m! &M?9Q?_! .b! isqqujb! mTSMTQ! ?@R! =MLDJGSR! :! ?GK@LRGML! 1#1!m!db!+@!%GE9QMb!xeqxsqrvb! @LUGQMLL@K@LS9J@! $U9JT9SGML! B=MLMKGPT@! @S! =MMQ?GL9SGML! ?9LR! TL! KML?@! sv ! Voir par exemple certains commentaires à l’égard du projet américain !a! complexe. Les Cahiers D’économie Politique, 47 ! c!'XO@QJMMO_!MT!TL@!=@QS9GL@!D9R=GL9SGML!OMTQ!J9!UGS@RR@!db!#QG=!5G?9J@L=_!

~~&!$! Point Climat n°42 - Modernisation du système ferroviaire et changement climatique, Novembre 2016 – I4CE !~~

~~Appendices, p 34 / 83 ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ! !~~

Transparence : il s’agit de s’é loigner des modèles de souhaitable de privilégier des options suffisamment décision opaques, souvent qualifiés de « boites noires » qui flexibles, parfois réversibles et de réduire les horizons de rendent impossible toute discussion sur les hypothèses de temps de la décision. Il s‘agit de ne plus pri vilégier une base utilisées. Au contraire, l’ensemble des variables de la option sans se poser la question de l’échéance à laquelle décision doivent être rendues visibles pour être interrogées elle nous amène et de la marge d’évolution qu’elle nous et discutées. laisse. Il s’agit au contraire d’é chelonner les décisions dans le temps, d’ identifier les moments – au cours du cycle de vie Robustesse : à défaut de savoir exactement de quoi des infrastructures – où des ajustements seront possibles. demain sera fait, il est préférable de tester la robustesse des différentes options face à une multitudes d’évolutions Différentes méthodologies existent 30 pour intégrer ces possibles. Dans certains cas, il vaudra mieux opter pour une caractéristiques, plus ou moins élaborés et complexes à solution qui ne maximise pas les bénéfices dans le cas le mettre en œuvre – par exemple l’analyse par options plus probable mais s’avère être une bonne solution dans réelles, les approches de Robust Decision Making ou une grande variété de possibles. De nombreux choix de différents outils de planifications dynamiques (ex. Dynamic conception et de développement d’infrastructures (ex. adaptation pathways 31 ). Souvent développés dans des systèmes de drainage, ouvrages d’art, localisation de contextes différents, plus habitués à gérer des incertitudes lignes) et de matériels (ex. type de climatiseurs) qui sont profondes (par exemple dans le domaine de l’eau), ces faits aujourd’hui, souvent de la même manière qu’hier, outils et surtout les principes qui les sous-tendent peuvent pourraient être confrontés à des scénarios de changement petit à petit être appropriés et adaptés au contexte climatique afin d’en évaluer la robustesse 29 . Se demander ferroviaire français. Cependant ils ne se substituent pas à la comment réagirait le système dans certaines situations prise de décision. Proposant une diversité d’ options et de inhabituelles doit faire partie de la grille d’analyse des choix manières possibles de les articuler sous formes de d’aménagement et d’organisation des transports. trajectoires ils ne dégagent pas une bonne solution dans l’absolu mais déploie nt l’éventail des choix possibles, à faire Agilité et flexibilité : on ne peut plus penser un système de collectivement. manière figée et statique, trop d’évolutions devront pouvoir être intégrées au fur et à mesure. Il peut donc être

~~!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! sz !+@KO@QS_!1)b!(LDQ9RSQT=STQ@!"@RGEL!,TRS!!F9LE@!VGSF!!JGK9S@b!3F@!19L?! JME! QM~~

~~! Point Climat n°42 - Modernisation du système ferroviaire et changement climatique, Novembre 2016 – I4CE f! '!~~

~~Appendices, p 35 / 83 !~~

CONCLUSION Pour en savoir plus … Emblématique de la révolution industrielle, le rail § Agence Européenne de l’Environnement. (2014). peut sembler à certains dépassé – incarnant un âge des “Adaptation of transport to climate change in Europe: infrastructures lourdes, énergivores et particulièrement challenges and options across transport modes and rigides dans une époque d’agilité 32 . Pourtant, c’est aussi un stakeholders .” réseau déjà en place qui a ses atouts et a déjà su www.eea.europa.eu/publications/adaptation-of- profondément se transformer par le passé en faisant transport-to-climate notamment évoluer ses technologies et son organisation - § Duron, P. (2013). Mobilité 21 « Pour un schéma national jusqu’à changer de vecteur énergétique en passant du de mobilité durable ». Rapport au ministre chargé des charbon au diésel et à l’électricité. Pressé de clarifier une transports, de la mer et de la pêche. vision des mobilités et du réseau ferroviaire du futur, le § Forum Vies Mobiles http://fr.forumviesmobiles.org décideur public a aujourd'hui à sa disposition une multitude § New Climate Economy. (2016). The Sustainable de visions exprimées 33 , des informations et des outils dont il Infrastructure Imperative. peut se saisir pour explorer les possibles et éclairer ses http://newclimateeconomy.report/2016 choix malgré les incertitudes qui les entourent. Cependant, § Portail du service Drias. Les Futurs du Climat. c’est in fine une vision stratégique assumée et des moyens http://drias-climat.fr de la mettre en œuvre et de la rendre acceptable qui sont § Projet Européen TopDad. (2014) Adaptation and attendus. Cette vision ne peut pas uniquement être un plan resilience in the transport sector. de développement du transport et doit s’inscrire en www.topdad.eu/upl/files/120163 cohérence avec les grandes dynamiques d’évolution des § Richard, E. (2016). L'adaptation aux changements économies et des territoires, notamment climatiques. Elle climatiques : les réponses de l'action publique doit même activement contribuer à ancrer la transition vers territoriale. Presses universitaires de Rennes. une économie bas carbone et adaptée au changement § Travaux du WRI sur les transports climatique dans les trajectoires de développement des www.wri.org/tags/transportation territoires. Elle doit envisager sans détours des § Vallejo, L., & Mullan, M. (2016). The role of government transformations d’ ampleur de l’économie, de la société et de in making infrastructure investment climate resilient – l’environnement enchevêtrés pour privilégier des choix Draft survey of current practices. OECD robustes et un mode de gestion dynamique. www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumen tpdf/?cote=ENV/EPOC/WPCID(2016)2&docLanguage= REMERCIEMENTS En § Watkiss, P., & Hunt, A. (2013). Method Overview: L’auteur souhaite remercier Benoit Leguet, Cécile Bordier & Decision Support Methods for Adaptation, Briefing Note Alexia Leseur (I4CE), Christian Dubost & Antoine Rothey 1. Summary of Methods and Case Study Examples from (SNCF) pour leurs retours et commentaires. the {MEDIATION} Project. Ce P oint Climat s’appuie sur des réflexions développées dans le cadre d’une thèse cofinancée par l’ADEME, SNCF et I4CE (2015-2018) 34 sur l’aide à la décision et l’adaptation des infrastructures au changement climatique, mais n’engage pas ces institutions.

~~!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ts !/9Q!@Wb_!!9F@L_!/b!c!-@!OMRMLR!OJTR!?@!Q9GJ!db!+9!3QG~~

Appendices, p 36 / 83 B:69<381 29A *8 380<*=>?<. 7*8*1.< ,*8 >*5. 9A8.<=23: 90 =,3.8>303, 3809<7*>398 !03"+*.( " 1/#423 "001/"$) ".% 1 !! 3//,2 3/ "%"03 ,2*<*,>.<3D381 ,637*>. ,2*81.G >*5381 38>9 *,,9?8> ?8,.<>*38>3.= *8- ,97:6.B3>CI *.'1"2314$341&2 3/ $,*-"3& $)".(&7 '2. .B*7:6. 90 >2. !<.8,2 <*36A*C 8.>A9<5 6$(( >996= *= * :<973=381 *::<9*,2 >9 <.*,2 >23= 9+4.,>[email protected] 8/5 3/ -"+& 3)&- )3@3*8 6/:9?.= K /? =/>@ <4 / 2<1@<>/9 =><831@ ?A=3>B7?32 0D =/> $3/;G(/A9 ./;23>97;23; H-.+)G;!=*;I J '*33&% 3/ 2&$3/12 4.01&0"1&% 3/ 4.$&13"*.36 F ,<::/?< .3;@A>7;7 H%7;5? ;<99353E +173;13?(@;3>?67= C7@6 = !&!E #K;! /;2 +';"F Appendices, p 37 / 83

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Les gestionnaires d’infrastructures et de réseaux sont parmi les PR?LF?RS)8?S) ?) XF?) >?S) >A) ?M) ?CC?T) 8U) P8S) >?) T?LPS) <8R8?) ?RMFSA?S)>8MS)K?S)PRN8MS)K8)S??)P8RTF?)>U)ts @L? )SF@FTFNMM?R) les modèles énergétiques, d’aménagement, les flux de mobilité et de ?) K8) PARFN>?) 9) X?MFRe) (KS) <8R8?) RASFKF?M?S) FTFNMS)FCCAR?MT?S)>?)

~~Des exigences accrues de redevabilité )~~

La perception sociale de ces changements a elle aussi évolué dans la période récente et se caractérise aujourd’hui P8R)UM?)8TT?MTFNM)8<?)K8)SN?)TR8MSP8R?M?)R?>?X8;FKFTAe)+?S)PNUXNFRS) PU;KF?)NMT) K8) PRFS?) ?M) ?K9) >?) FXF>U?Ke) /8R) ?Z?LPK?b)UM?)AKAD8T8FR?S)>?)S?RXF?S)?)K?UR)8U)T?RRFTNFR?)KUFiLBL?e) !!! '5><@/'./'?=*9>5?5:9'' %8U)changement climatique à l’ A?)TR8MSCNRL8TFNM)>?S)LN>@K?S) de développement vers des économies neutres en carbone à l’horizon 2100 8)ATA)8>NPTA)KNRS)>?)K8)!./ts)9)P8RFS) ?M)trswe)AU)TR8X?RS)>?))>?)/8RFS , l’ensemble des Etats et des )88MS) UM) PRN?) TR8MSFTFNM) AM?RDATFQU? te) #M) %R8MA?) K8) +NF) >?) 3R8MSFTFNM)#M?RDATFQU?)PNUR)K8)!RNFSS8M?)PNKFTFQU?S)KN<8K?S)?T)>?)STR8TADF?S)S??S)?S)?)X8K?URe) #KK?)?ST)PNT?MTF?KK?L?MT)S[MNM[L?)>?)TR8MSCNRL8TFNMS)L8I?UR?S)de certains secteurs comme l’énergie, le )TR8MSPNRTb) l’agriculture ou encore le bâtiment. +8)MNTFNM)>?)f)RFSQU?)>?)TR8MSFTFNM)g)?ST)UTFKFSA?)PNUR)<8R8?S) PNKFTFQU?S) >?) TR8MSFTFNM) AM?RDATFQU?) SUR) K?S) 8?S) RFSQU?S) ?S) NPPNRTUMFTAS) P8R) R8PPNRT) 8UZQU?KS) NFT) S?) PNSFTFNMM?Re)"?S)>?L8M>?S)>?)R?>?X8;FKFTA)QU8MT)9)K8)PRFS?)?M)?)R?) (cf. par exemple l’article 173 de la loi de Transition Energétique pour la Croissance Verte) e)

))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) s)+?)U)C8FT)>?S)8?S)FTFNMS)?MTS)P?M>8MT) lesquels elles ont pu être considérées comme stables. Il s’agit de changements déjà en cours dont on connaît les grandes tend 8MNMT) l’ampleur dépendra de la capacité collective à réussir la transition énergétique. Ces changemen TS)SNMT)>N8MS)K?S)R8PPNRTS)>U)&(#!)9) l’échelle internationale et dans les rapports sur le Climat de la France au 21 @L? )siècle à l’échelle nationale ) t)Article 2 de l’Accord de Paris, extrait )d) N!*?DA!2?>C4>:A!!34!>4!34!5C4!>4CC4=4>C!4>!34BB?DB!34!S R!@/A! A/@@?AC!/DG!>:E4/DG!@A6:>3DBCA:4!@A?=?DE/>C!D>!36E4C!0!7/:1<4!6=:BB:?>!34!#",!OM )

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~~Appendices, p 38 / 83 !NMTRF;UTFNM)9)K8)>FS~~

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4M?)P8RTF?)>?S)AXNKUTFNMS)9)X?MFR)S?)C?R8)P8R)8IUST?L?MTS)SUALNMTR?R)UM?)PNSTUR?)PKUS) PRN88MS)>?S)AQUFP?L?MTS)>NMT)K8)>URA?)>?)XF?)NU) d’utilisation serait écourtée du fait du changement RNMS)9)8DFR u)c) § /NUR) ?) R?) P8RT) 9) K8) ?S) TR8I??) changement, s’accorder sur des répartitions acceptables des coûts et des bénéfices plutôt que de les subir )c! § /NUR) S8FSFR) K?S) NPPNRTUMFTAS) ?T) T rouver des synergies avec les autres dynamiques d’évolutions globales ou locales, environnementales, économiques et sociales telles que les processus d’urbanisation, la transition >ALNDR8PEFQU?)NU)K8)RAXNKUTFNM)>FDFT8K?e ! Le changement climatique comme variable stratégique

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Il n’y a donc pas de façon unique de soulever la question de son positionnement )?T)>?)SNM)R8PPNRT)XFSi9iXFS)8U) changement climatique. Les enjeux varient énormément d’un secteur à l’autre. !?P?M>8MTb) K?S) FMCR8STRU?) RAS?8U)partagent un grand nombre d’interrogations quant à leurs rapports aux impacts du changement climatique et donc à leur robustesse, vulnérabilité, résilience et capacité d’adaptation. +?)?)QU?STFNMM?R)d)

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~~Appendices, p 39 / 83 !NMTRF;UTFNM)9)K8)>FS~~

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AUi>?K9) >?S) ?) X8RF8;FKFTA) PNUR) K?S) UMSb) AXNKUTFNMS)>?S)LN[?MM?S)et décalage du domaine d’opération PNUR)K?S) 8UTR?S)c) PEAMNL@M?S) TR@S) KN<8KFSAS) NU) >[M8LFQU?S) DKN;8K?S) S?KNM) l’organisation de l’activité )c) AXNKUTFNMS) KFMA8FR?Sb) P8SS8D?S) >?) S?UFKS) NU) ?)RADFL?b)?T

#/@='=*;;:=?'*@'?/8;>H'*@' changement et à l’incertitude e)+?)?X rait s’accentuer dans le futur et ce d’autant plus que 'K8)RA>U?S)ALFSSFNMS)>?))PR?M>R8)>U)T?LPSe) De premiers effets commencent à se faire sentir, d’autres ne deviendront perceptibles que progressivement ou au ?)SNM)8FCCAR?MTS)P8S)>?)T?LPS)d)QU?KS)SNMT)K?S)ENRF\NMS)>?)PK8MFCF<8TFNMb) quelles échéances d’investissement, quelles d URA?S)>?S)<[?)R?MNUX?KK?L?MTb)QU?KK?)<8P8?) CK?ZF;FKFTA) ?ZFST8MT?Sb) < omment ces différentes durées caractéristiques s’articulent avec les F<8K?S v)–)sur l’avenir sont un déterminant clé de la capacité d’une organisation à appréhender ces transformations. En fonction de l’histoire récente (ex. ruptures T??S) modes d’organisation, tous les gestionnaires d’infrastructure ne s’inscrivent pas dans les mêmes trajectoires. )

~~N!L’anticipation des effets du changement climatique E:4>C!A/@@4<4A!à l’homme =?34A>4!B4B!:>C4A36@4>3/>24B!?D1<:64B! O!"~~

))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) v)On parle d’incertitude quand on est dans l’incapacité d’attribuer une probabilité à un certain état du monde )ou cours d’actions e)+8)MNTFNM) d’incertitude radicale, ou profonde )?ST)UTFKFSA?)KNRSQU?)K?S)P8RTF?iprenantes à une décision ne savent pas ou n’arrivent pas à s’accorder sur un LN>@K?)>?)K8)SFTU8TFNM)C?R8FT)K?)KF?M)?MTR?)K?S)X8RF8;K?S)FLPNRT8MT?S)?T)P?RL?TTR8FT)>?)R8FSNMM?R)9)P8RTFR)>?)FSTRF;UTFNMS)>?)PRN;8;FKFTAS) AX?MTU?KK?L?MT)SU;I???PUM?S)X8RF8;K?S)>NMT)NM)M?)FSTRF;UTFNMS)L8FS)AD8K?L?MT)>?S)X8RF8;K?S)MNM)F>?MTFCFA?S)k>?S)f)FMW)C8FR?)C8?S)8MS)K?S)8MMA?S)yr)?T) s’adapter à des transformations durables de leur environnement économique devenu plus volatil et incertain. )

~~!NKKNQU?),ATAN)?T)!KFL8T)trsy)i)f)A"A/3A3(.-)"#2)(-%1A2314!341#2)#3)"#2)1$2#A47)A4)!'A-&#,#-3)!+(,A3(04#)g)i)tv)L8RS)trsy))) ) uhz)))~~

~~Appendices, p 40 / 83 !NMTRF;UTFNM)9)K8)>FS~~

~~7/>'./@B'.58/9>5:9>'–'=*;;:=?'*@B'-:9.5?5:9>'-758*?5<@/>'et rapport au changement & à l’incertain M''>:9?'*59>5'+' -:9>5.0=/='/9'=/7*?5:9'*A/-'I'~~

§ +es processus de gestion et d’organisation des réseau Z) i) ?ZPKNFT8TFNMb) L8FMT?M8M?S) U)CUTUR)>?)SNM)8AR?R)K8)QU?STFNM)>?)K8)PAR?MMFTA) d’un certain modèle économique et en explorant comment les différentes dynamiques d’évolution structurelles à l’œuvre (changement climatique, transition énergétique, transition démographique, etc.) P?UX?MT)S?)?)S?)PNSFTFNMM?R)QU8MT)8UZ)AXNKUTFNMS)>NMT)NM)X?UT) T?MFR)

~~de ne pas considérer (par exemple en termes de trajectoire d’émissions de CO tle))~~

~~7/'?=*A*57'59-5?/'+';/9>/='+'7*'2:5> S'I''~~

~~§ #/>'-:9?59@5?0>'I)A)QU?KK?S)FTFNMS)kT?@K?)8'=@;?@=/>'I)"8MS)QU?KS)<8S)K?)LN>@K?)d’organisation lui iLBL?)kNU)UM?)P8RTF?)>U)LN>@K?l)XNFR?)K8)M8TUR?) de l’ 8?XF?MTiFK) MA~~

Il n’y a pas de point de départ unique à partir duquel soulever ces questions. Souvent cela dépend de la raison initiale <@5'8:?5A/'@9/'?/77/'*9*7C>/J' Il peut s’agir par exemple d’une démarche exploratoire d’une direction de la stratégie, d’un audit des risques, d’un projet de R&D, XNFR?) >?) QU?STFNMM?L?MTS) T??S) 8?)PR?SSFNMS)?Z?RFSP?MS8;K?)>?)SUCCFS8LL?MT)RACKA?)CNRLUK?R)K?S)QU?STFNMS)?M)T?M8MT)?S) SPA?) ?S) TR8I??SSNUS) PRAS?MT?) QU?KQU?S) ?Z?LPK?S) S?)QU?STFNMS)QUF)P?UX?MT)BTR?)PNSA?S)P8R)>FCCAR?MTS)T[P?S)>?)D?STFNMM8FR?S) d’infrastructures )d)

))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) x)Par exemple dans le cas d’une station de ski )d))K8)PR?LF@R?)QU?STFNM)?ST)?S)FMX?STFSS?L?MTS)9)C8FR?)>8MS)>?)MNUX?8UZ)AQUFP?L?MTS) d’enneigement artificiel pour assurer une continuité de l’activité hiver après hiver )c)K8)S??)R?MXNF?)8UZ) <8S)NV)FK)>?XF?MT)PRACAR8;K?)>?) s’éloigner des activités de sport d’hiver po UR)PRNPNS?R)>?)MNUX?KK?S)NCCR?S)>?)X8K?UR)8UZ)XFSFT?URSe))

~~!NKKNQU?),ATAN)?T)!KFL8T)trsy)i)f)A"A/3A3(.-)"#2)(-%1A2314!341#2)#3)"#2)1$2#A47)A4)!'A-&#,#-3)!+(,A3(04#)g)i)tv)L8RS)trsy))) ) vhz)))~~

~~Appendices, p 41 / 83 !NMTRF;UTFNM)9)K8)>FS~~

~~! !#" $'%': exemple d’approches de gestionnaires d’infrastructures pour questionner l’impact du changement climatique sur leur activité '''~~

+?S)FTFNMS)?L8M>?) kAPKNF?L?MT) >?S) R?MNUX?K8;K?Sb) K?S) PRA?)TR8MSPNRT)?ST)?ZPNSA)8UZ)?ZTRBL?S)?)RAPNM>R?)8UZ);?SNFMS)?M)TNUT?S)?5:9';:>0/';*='7/'-4*93/8/9?'-758*?5<@/'I'7/'-4*93/8/9?'-758*?5<@/';/@?Mil être à l’origine de situations critiques F>?MTFCF<8TFNM)>?) pour le réseau jusqu’ici jamais expérimentées et si oui de quel type de situations '590.5?/>';:@==*5?Mil s’agir 'G' SFTU8TFNMS)?)K8)RAPNMS?)9)?S)FMX?STFSS?L?MTS)SUR)K?)RAS?8U)P?UX?MT)BTR?)PRNDR8LLAS)PNUR)8SSUR?R)S8) FMA>FT?S ' RN;UST?SS?)9)UM?)D8LL?)AK8RDF?)>?)PNSSF;FKFTAS)

+?S)RAS?8UZ)>?)TR8MSPNRT)T?RR?STR?)k?Ze)RNUTF?Rb)C?RRNXF8FR?l)SNMT)8MS)FTFNMS)?)SUPPNRT?R)?S)?Z8TFNMS)>A?)L8MF@R?)R@DK?L?MT8FR?b)>8MS)K?S)AT8P?S)>?)FL?MSFNMM?L?MTb)?)L8TARF8UZb) ?T?5:9>';:>0/>';*='7/'-4*93/8/9?'-758*?5<@/'I'l’infrastructure existante est M/77/'?:@6:@=>'*.*;?0/'+'>:9'/9A5=:99/8/9?H ' )=*9>;:=?>'?/==/>?=/>'I' <@/7>' 0708/9?>' ./>' =0>/*@B' ;:@==*5/9?' 1?=/' A@790=*,7/>' +' -/=?*59>' >-09*=5:>' ./' -4*93/8/9?' -758*?5<@/>'G' %/@?M:9' F>?MTFCF<8TFNM)>?S) 5./9?525/='./>'>/@57>'./'7585?/'./'A@790=*,575?0'G'%/@?M:9'7:-*75>/='./>';:=?5:9>'-=5?5<@/>'NK'9?CB@?CB 'LO'G' XUKMAR8;FKFTAS)?)

L’eau fait partie intégrante du système et sa disponibilité est directement liée aux conditions climatiques. La disponibilité )>?) NM<)SUFXF?)>?)PR@S)P8R)K?S)PRNC?SSFNMM?KS)>?)NL8FM?)>?)X8RF8;FKFTA) –)>A;FTS)LFMFLUL)?T)L8ZFLUL)i)8U)S?FM)>UQU?K)K?)S[ST@L?)?ST)NPAR8TFNMM?Ke)) &@/>?5:9';:>0/';*='7/'-4*93/8/9?'-758*?5<@/'I'-/'.:8*59/'./'A*=5*,575?0'45>?:=5<@/'=5><@/M?Mil d’évoluer significativement ' +'-*@>/'.@'-4*93/8/9?'-758*?5<@/'/?'<@/77/';:@==*5/9?'/9'1?=/'7/>'58;75-*?5:9>'>@='7/>'8:./>'./'3/>?5:9'./'7*'=/>>:@=-/'G' )=*9>;:=?'27@A5*7'I' Parmi les pistes d’adaptation envisageables, des mesures techniques et des mesures organisationnelles (ex. évolution vers RFSQU?iTiNM)>?)SNRTFR)>U) >?S)CKNTT?S)>?)P?TFT?S);8T?8UZ)PNUR)P?RL?TTR?)K8)M8XFD8TFNM)8X?<)>?S)étiages moindres, création d’installations de stockage >NL8FM?)>?)X8RF8;FKFTA) PNUR)8TTAMU?R)K?S)P?RT?S)>U?S)8UZ)FMT?RRUPTFNMS)>?)M8XFD8TFNMle) 27M!@A?;4C! %&$.I, ) L8GTRFSA)a'

L’activité des stations de ski dépend fortement du niveau d’enneigement naturel des domaines et de la possibilité de produire ) de la neige artificielle. L’expérience acquise saison après saison permet à leurs exploitants de bien FTFNMS) d’enneigement minimum pour opérer. ) &@/>?5:9';:>0/';*='7/'-4*93/8/9?'-758*?5<@/'I '<@/77/>'>:9?'7/>'-:9.5?5:9>'+'=0@95=';:@='3*=*9?5='@9/':@A/=?@=/'./>';5>?/>' ' 5./9?5250/>'-:88/'-=5?5<@/>';=/><@/'?:@>'7/>'45A/=>'.*9>'7/>';=:-4*59/>'.0-/995/>'G''' (?*?5:9>'./'>;:=?>' 1A8KFS8TFNM)>?S)FMX?STFSS?L?MTS)P?RL?TT8MT)>?)RAUMFR)FTFNMS)QUF)PNURRNMT)BTR?)A8MS)K?) d’hiver 'I' 9)QU?KK?S) <8S)NVb)FKS)M?)K?)S?R8F?MT)PKUSb)>FX?RSFCF<8TFNM)>?S)8?)MNUX?KK?S)SNUR?)X8K?UR)k?Ze)TNURFSL?)X?RTle) 7M!@A?;4C! FTFNMS)?)trrub)>?S)T?LPBT?S)EFSTNRFQU?S)NU)>?S)FMNM>8TFNMS)8[8MT)?U)>?S)?)S8FSNMS)P?R=U?S)?S) T?M>8MFTSb)NMTiFKS)RA?KK?L?MT)ATA)PKUS) FMT?MS?Sb)PKUS)CRAQU?MTS)NU);F?M)?STi?)T?KS)APFSN>?S)QUF)AXNKU?)a) mCes dynamiques sont à penser en lien avec les autres facteurs clés d’évolution de chacun de ces secteurs, par exemple l’évolu TFNM)>?)K8)STRU?L8M>?): en effet, l’évolution des conditions climatiques pourra amener une évo KUTFNM)>?S);?SNFMS)?T)>?S)PRACAR?M?)?S)S?RXFUS)P8R)?)LN;FKFTAb)K8)>?L8M>?)TNURFSTFQU?b)K?S)?S)8USTRF?KK?S)PNURR8F?MT)8FMSF)BTR?)8L?MA es à évoluer. Il s’agit cependant de phénomènes complexes difficile à anticiper sans analyses 8PPRNCNM>F?Se)) 7M!*A?;4CB! -?*!/!!L! $=@/2CS K!CA/E/DG!34!!"DA?@64>>4M! ) ))

~~!NKKNQU?),ATAN)?T)!KFL8T)trsy)i)f)A"A/3A3(.-)"#2)(-%1A2314!341#2)#3)"#2)1$2#A47)A4)!'A-&#,#-3)!+(,A3(04#)g)i)tv)L8RS)trsy))) )whz)))~~

~~Appendices, p 42 / 83 !NMTRF;UTFNM)9)K8)>FS~~

Des questions bien posées dont découlent des démarches d’adaptation ' A)P8RTFR)>?)QU?STFNMS)8FMSF)CNRLUKA?S)P?UT)>AAL8R?)PRFS?)?M)?S)?CC?TS)>U)AX?KNPP?L?MTb)K8)rénovation et la gestion des réseaux d’infrastructures. La question posée (i) permet de clarifier et d’expliciter son rapport à la connaissance scientifique et son besoin d’information et (ii) cadre le type de rép NMS?) 8PPNRTA?e)

N5O '*;;:=?'+'7*'-:99*5>>*9-/'>-5/9?525<@/'/?',/>:59'.’information e)+?)L8MQU?)>?)PRNI?8PTA?S) à des besoins spécifiques et l’existence d’incertitudes apparaissent souvent comme des barrières à l’adaptation. Or l’acquisition d’information complémentaire n’est pas toujours possible ou bien peut s’avérer très couteuse. Une fois la QU?STFNM)RA?KK?L?MT)FLPNRT8MT?)PNUR)UM?)8?) K8) L8MF@R?) >NMT) X8) AXNKU?R) T?KK?) NU) T?KK?) X8RF8;K?) SPA?S)<8S)K?S) PKUS)?ZTRBL?S)k F?ABCP2/B4!9H@?C94B:B ) peuvent constituer autant d’outils heuristiques à partir desquels raisonner e)+?) travail de formulation de la question permet également de mieux cibler les indicateurs sur lesquels il est utile d’opérer UM?)X?FKK?b)K?S)S?UFKS)FLPNRT8MTS)9)>AT?@?BCB b)QUF)PNURR8F?MT)P8R)?Z?LPK?)R?)9)UM)?) STR8TADF?le)+8)STRU e dispositifs de suivi, d’aide à la décision et d’interaction avec le monde scientifique peut ainsi constituer un première étape importante d’une démarche d’adaptation e) "?) T?KS) >FSPNSFTFCS) P?UX?MT) PR?M>R?) PKUSF?URS)CNRL?Sb)?Ze)d) § 2[ST@L?) =?>:C?A:>8 )et d’a IUST?L?MT)PRNDR?SSFC)c) § #Z?R?)PRNI??)QU?KQU?S)S?S)S?)PNSSF;K?S)PNUR)F>?MTFCF?R)K?S)<8S)RAl) y)

!B/=-5-/>'RQQ'*9>'+'-758*?'-:9>?*9?';=:;:>0>';*='$0?0:M"=*9-/'I' f)Les domaines de l’Energie et de l’Assurance sont de grands pourvoyeurs d’études sur des )PRN;KAL8TFQU?S) liées à l’impact du changement climatique à l’échelle des 10 itr)PRNU)LN>@K?) 8MS)K?)<8>R?)>?S)SFLUK8TFNMS)>U)&(#!b),ATANi%R8M?S) séries météorologiques de données d’environnement, correspondant à 200 ans du climat actuel. )!?S)SARF?S) de données permettent ainsi d’établir des statistiqu ?S)>?)>URA?S)>?)R?TNUR)>?)PEAMNL@M?S)R8R?S)8FMSF)QU?) des statistiques d’évènements croisés, à l’échelle de l’Europe g)ETTPdhhS?RXF?Si UFT)9)P8RTFR)>?)LN>@K?S)?) 8MT)9)>FCCAR?MTS)S?)?)>AT??S) AXNKUTFNMS)>8MS)K?S)>URA?S)>?)R?TNURS)>?)FTSe)))

~~))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) y)5NFR)AD8K?L?MT)9)AX?KNPPAS)8UZ)#T8TSi4MFSb)8UZ)/8[S) 8S)NU)8U)1N[8UL?i4MFb)P8R)?Z?LPK?)P8R)K?S)P8RTF??PUM~~

~~!NKKNQU?),ATAN)?T)!KFL8T)trsy)i)f)A"A/3A3(.-)"#2)(-%1A2314!341#2)#3)"#2)1$2#A47)A4)!'A-&#,#-3)!+(,A3(04#)g)i)tv)L8RS)trsy))) )xhz)))~~

~~Appendices, p 43 / 83 !NMTRF;UTFNM)9)K8)>FS~~

N55O #/>'?C;/>'./'=0;:9>/> que l’on appor ?/'+'7*'K'<@/>?5:9'L'-758*?5<@/ e))!?UZi8MS)K?) T?LPS)d) 8TTFTU>?) PKUTOT) N;S?RX8TRFU) 8PT8TFX?lb)>AL8R?)D?STFNM)>?S)RFSQU?S)i)RA>UFX?RSFCF<8TFNM)ib)))8IUST?L?MTS)i)T??S)>A?S) regrets) ou encore la résilience face aux chocs. Il n’y en a pas effet pas qu’une seule réponse possible et les choix qui sont faits sont le reflet d’une certaine vision du d AX?KNPP?L?MT)>?)SNM)88PT8TFNMl)?ST)UM?)STR8TADF?)QUF)PRAS?MT?)>?S)8X8MT8D?S)?T)P?RL?T)>?)S8FSFR)>?S)NPPNRTUMFTASe))

Conclusion Se saisir de la question des impacts du changement climatique c’est intégrer SPNMT8MAL?MT)NU)SNUS)K8)PR?SSFNM)>?)P8RTF?S) PR?M8MT?S)?ZTARF?UR?S)[M8LFQU?)>8MS)SNM) périmètre d’analyse stratégique. Il s’agit d’interroger dans quelle mesure)?T) ?X?MFR) UM?) X8RF8;K?) STRU?S) >A?) cette question, d’une part pour être en mesure de répondre aux inquiétudes croissantes de leurs parties prenantes et d’autre part pour D8R>?R)K8)<8P8

Le défi est d’arriver à penser ensemble des RUPTUR?S)PNSSF;K?S)?T)>?S)?)T?LPSe)+?S) réponses apportées dépendent fortement de la manière de formuler les questions que l’on se pose. #KK? s s’inscrivent toujours >8MS)UM?)U)LNM>?) –)?T)MNT8LL?MT)UM?)?)K8)F;FKFTA)>?)>FCCAR?MT?S)TR8I??) TR8MSFTFNM)AM?RDATFQU?)i)?T)>?S)AXNKUTFNMS)SN?S)AXNKUTFNMS)NMM?R)K?S)LN[?MS) –) par exemple en termes d’outils d’aide à la décision ou de partenariat S)i)de la mettre en œuvre. )

Les choix qui en découlent participent à l’adaptation et à la résilience >?S)T?RRFTNFR?S)?T)>?S)A?K9)>?S)PRFNRFTAS)QU?)S?)CFZ?MT)?S)PRNFXF>U?KS)?MD8DAS)FK)?ST)>NM<)MA?) X?FKK?R) 9) NMM?R) K?S) STR8TADF?S) ?M) PE8S?) 8X?<) UM?) XFSFNM) ?) AL8R?)?)PFST?S) et d’hypothèses à explorer. La ) ination n’est pas toujours évidente –)par exemple lorsqu’il s’agit de déterminer quel est le MFX?8U)>?)RN;UST?SS?)SNASFR8;K?)NU)K?)MFX?8U)>?)RFSQU?)SNNFT)?M)PNRT?R)K?S)

~~REMERCIEMENTS~~

L’auteur souhaite remercier les représentants des différentes gestionnaires d’infrastructures qui ont accepté d’échanger sur ces sujets ainsi que l’équipe d’I4CE pour ses retours et commentaires. Cette note s’appuie sur des réflexions développées dans le cadre d’une thès e cofinancée par l’ADEME, SNCF et I4CE (2015 -2018) 8 sur l’aide à la décision et l’adaptation des infrastructures au changement climatique, mais n’engage pas ces institutions. ) ))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) z)"AT8FKS)SUR)YYYeFvR?i>?8PT??Si8UZi

~~!NKKNQU?),ATAN)?T)!KFL8T)trsy)i)f)A"A/3A3(.-)"#2)(-%1A2314!341#2)#3)"#2)1$2#A47)A4)!'A-&#,#-3)!+(,A3(04#)g)i)tv)L8RS)trsy))) )yhz)))~~

~~Appendices, p 44 / 83 !NMTRF;UTFNM)9)K8)>FS~~

~~i CEREMA. 2015. “{PNACC}, Volet Infrastructures et Systèmes de Transport, Action 1 –)A>8PT8TFNM)"?S)(MCR8STRU?)3R8MSPNRT)AU)!E8MD?L?MT) Climatique.” )~~

~~i ##Ae)trsve)A>8PTFMD)FMCR8STRU~~

~~i EEA. 2014. “Adaptation of Transport to Climate Change in Europe: Challenges and Options across Transport Modes and Stakeholders.” )~~

~~i European Commission. 2014. “Adapting Infrastructures to Climate Change.” )~~

~~i #URNP?8M)!NLLFSSFNM))1!e)ktrswle)1?SFKF?M)!RFTF<8K)(MCR8STRU~~

~~i -?Y)!KFL8T?)#)!KFL8T?e)))~~

~~i &8RM8U>b) eb)n)%?RR?Tb)!e)ktrr{le)A>8PT8TFNM)8U)USTRF?KK?Se)+F8FSNM)AM?RDF?) CR8M~~

~~i '88SMNNTb),eb)*Y8JJ?Kb))e)'eb)68KJ?Rb)6e)#eb)n)T?R),88Tb))e)ktrsule)"[M8LF<)8>8PTFX?)PNKF<[)P8TEY8[Sd)8)L?TEN>)CNR) ???PK[)UMe)&KN;8K)?MXFRNML?MT8K)~~

~~i (v!#i(MSTFTUT?)CNR)!KFL8T?)#?RMFS8TFNM)>U)S[ST@L?)C?RRNXF8FR?)CR8M=8FS)?T)~~

i Larrivée, Caroline, Stépahne O’Carroll, and Jean iPierre Savard. 2014. “La /AR?MMFTA)"?S) :TFL?MTS)?T)"?S) Infrastructures.” Vers L’adaptation: Synthèse Des Connaissances Sur Les Changements Climatiques 2014. )

~~i IPCC. 2014. “Working Group II !NMTRF;UTFNM)TN)TE?)(/!!)%FCTE)ASS?SSL?MT)1?PNRTb)!KFL8T?)!E8MD?)trsvd)(LP8~~

~~i .!"#e)trswe)!KFL8T?)!E8MD?)1FSJS)8M>)A>8PT8TFNMi+FMJFMD)/NKF<[)8M>)#~~

~~i .!"#e)trsxe)A>8PTFMD)3R8MSPNRT)TN)!KFL8T?)!E8MD?)8M>)#ZTR?L?)6?8TE?Rd)(LPKF<8TFNMS)CNR)(MCR8STRU) -?TYNRJ),8M8D?RSe)#!")/U;KFSEFMDe)~~

~~i .!"#e)trsxe)+?S)U)~~

~~i 1[>D?b))eb))8)8) ?TT?R)!KFL8T?e)-?Y)!KFL8T?)#NM)8M>) 68SEFMDTNMb)"!e)))~~

~~i 3!%"e)t 016. “Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate iRelated Financial Disclosure.” Task Force on Climate i R?K8T?>)%FM8M~~

~~i ToPDAd. 2014. “Overview of System Responsiveness to Climate Change Impacts in Energy, Transport and Tourist Sectors.” )~~

~~i 4-#/)trsxe)3E?)A>8PT8TFNM)%FM8M~~

~~i 6 !2"e)#K?FMD)8)R?SFKF?MT)PNY?R)S?~~

)

~~!NKKNQU?),ATAN)?T)!KFL8T)trsy)i)f)A"A/3A3(.-)"#2)(-%1A2314!341#2)#3)"#2)1$2#A47)A4)!'A-&#,#-3)!+(,A3(04#)g)i)tv)L8RS)trsy))) )zhz)))~~

~~Appendices, p 45 / 83 Climatic Change (2017) 143:473 –486 DOI 10.1007/s10584-017-2016-y~~

~~Organisational uptake of scientific information about climate change by infrastructure managers: the case of adaptation of the French railway company~~

~~Vivian Dépoues 1,2~~

~~Received: 16 January 2017 /Accepted: 15 June 2017 /Published online: 15 July 2017 # Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2017~~

Abstract Future development and renewal of transport infrastructures have to take into account how the effects of climate change will affect these complex sociotechnical systems. This article aims at understanding how to raise this issue to ensure an efficient and systemic uptake of climate change by infrastructure managers. It reports the results of an in-depth case study conducted on the French railway company. This study identifies several adaptation dynamics: one is top-down and stems from climate change impacts; others are more bottom-up and focused on vulnerabilities. However, both types of approaches have, so far, yielded limited results. Building on the existing literature, this paper reveals critical bottlenecks to overcome in order to get the organization ready to adapt. It suggests key components of an enabling framework for a more proactive preparation to climate change and mainstreaming climate adaptation into major organisational decisions.

~~1 Introduction~~

In a context of climate change, the development and renewal of infrastructures is a critical challenge (European Commission 2013 ; Chappin and van der Lei 2014 ; Larrivée et al. 2015 ; Stecker et al. 2011 ; Masood et al. 2016 ; OECD 2015 ; Forzieroi et al. 2015 ; ToPDAd 2014 ). In the coming years, thousand billions of euros will have to be invested in transport, energy, water and telecommunication networks to preserve the connectivity, the efficiency and the resilience of the economies (The new climate economy 2014 ; Dobbs et al. 2013 ; Vallejo and Mullan 2016 ). 1 Those infrastructures will have lifetime expectancies of several decades and will therefore be exposed to the impacts of climate change.

~~1Mc Kinsey Global Institute estimates global infrastructures needs between $2.5 (current expenses) and 3.3 trillion per year —40% in developed countries.~~

* Vivian Dépoues [email protected]

1 I4CE – Institute for Climate Economics, 24 Avenue Marceau, 75008 Paris, France 2 CEARC, OVSQ, University Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, 11 Boulevard d ’Alembert, 78280 Guyancourt, France

~~Appendices, p 46 / 83 474 Climatic Change (2017) 143:473 –486~~

Railways play a structuring role in the European economy as they ‘facilitate the production and distribution of goods and economic services, and form the basis for the provision of basic social services ’.(European Commission 2013 ). In Europe, most of the railway managers are big companies founded in the nineteenth or twentieth century that today have to face important asset management challenges (e.g. ageing infrastructure, underinvestment in the last decades, important evolution of technologies and mobility patterns). Several research programs have analysed climate change implications in this context (UIC 2011 ; EEA 2014 ; Baker et al. 2010 ; Nemry and Demirel 2012 ; Koetse and Rietveld 2009 ; Armstrong et al. 2016 ), often focusing on infrastructures ’ vulnerability. A few case-studies have been conducted at national and subnational levels, for instance in Sweden (Lindgren et al. 2009 ), Germany, Austria (Doll et al. 2014 ; Rotter et al. 2016 ) and the UK (RSSB 2015 ). They generally observed limited action in terms of large- scale investments but a reasonable level of awareness on climate change and a common focus on research and knowledge sharing. Very often, they focus on strengthening resilience to current hazards as a ‘no-regret ’ option to start preparing for an uncertain future. This existing work also pointed at the increasing need to develop forward-looking thinking and to proactively integrate climate change concerns early in planning and decision processes. This literature shows how adaptation is not just a technical matter but also an institutional and organisational issue questioning values and priorities. As such, adaptive capacity relies on elements like governance, procedures or leadership (Berkhout 2012 ; Stecker et al. 2011 ). This paper follows up with these projects and reports the results of an in depth analytical case study on the management of climate adaptation of the French railway system. In France, the main player in the railway sector is a state-controlled group created in 1938 and called SNCF (Société Nationale des Chemins de Fer Français). It encompasses both the management of the network (with SNCF Réseau ) and part of the operation of this network (with SNCF Mobilités) . It is under the supervision of the transport department of the French Ministry of the Environment. The French railway network is the second largest in Europe with more than 30,000 km of tracks and 3000 passenger terminals. Fifteen thousand trains use this network daily, in carry five million people and 32 Gt-km of freight every year. Climate change could produce severe disruptions in this network and adaptation is therefore a crucial collective concern. Neverthe- less, where and how this issue should be raised and handled in such a big and complex organization is an issue without a straightforward answer. As a matter of fact, SNCF has about 150,000 employees and more than 650 branches —where decisions are distributed and shaped by various factors. This paper, intends to understand how a big organisation such as a national railway network manager can mainstream and increase the internal uptake of the issue of climate change. It aims at explaining how an infrastructure manager (IM) can integrate scientific knowledge about climate change into its decision-making process in order to implement adaptation strategies. First, materials and methods of the case study are introduced. Then the article describes two types of observed approaches to adaptation. These are qualified after the IPCC (IPCC 2014 ) as impact-first and vulnerability-first, depending on where they start and how they frame climate change and related uncertainties. The limitations of these approaches are discussed. The second part of this paper describes the critical bottlenecks to overcome in order to increase the organization ’s readiness to adapt. Building on theoretical and empirical results available in the literature, it identifies key elements to build an enabling framework for a more proactive preparation to climate change and to mainstream adaptation into the decision-making process.

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~~1.1 Analytical framework, materials and methods~~

Rooted in the field of science and technology studies (STS), this research adopts a descriptive approach and sees adaptation not only as an engineering issue but also as a sociotechnical concern (Latour 2006 ; Edwards 2003 ). It focuses on the interface between knowledge on climate change, the technical infrastructure and the organisation as part of its socio-economic environment. It questions how climate change is understood and how this affects such a complex system. Moreover, this approach takes into account how organisational, corporate and economic values affect how the system understands and deals with the impacts of climate change (Hulme 2009 ). In the objective of analysing the way the organisation is integrating adaptation, the article does not intend to evaluate which approach could be more relevant or efficient. It identifies and describes various initiatives contributing to adaptation, going from incremental reactive adjustments to enhance resilience to current weather down to significant transformations anticipating future changes (Simonet 2009 ; Adger 2010 ; Kane and Vanderlinden 2015 ). This research did not intend to be comprehensive but aimed at covering a diversity of management functions. 2 In order to do so, twenty-five in-depth semi-directed interviews supplemented by secondary sources analysis have been conducted. The interviews allowed to engage into discussion with:

~~– People working in different units of the company:~~

& Transversal support units in charge of corporate sustainability, standardisations and procedures, socio-economic analysis; & Technical units in charge of design and engineering; & Units in charge of operation and maintenance planning and management.

~~– People intervening in the elaboration of adaptation strategies:~~

~~& Representatives of the French Ministry for Environment; & Governmental technical agency (CEREMA); & French national meteorological service (Météo France).~~

~~1.2 Case study: where and how is the adaptation question raised?~~

The analysis shows there are many places within the organisation where adaptation dynamics can start. Indeed, we have observed several initiatives explicitly seeking to contribute to climate adaptation in different departments and along various processes.

~~1.2.1 First adaptation strategy observed: starting from projected impacts~~

~~In the last decades, concerns about climate change were raised by the publication of scientific results (five IPCC assessment reports between 1990 and 2015) and political discussions at~~

2 Starting with people who previously demonstrated an interest in addressing climate change issues within the organization and were involved in previous work related to this topic. Interviews with weather data users inside business or technical unit most sensitive to weather and climate conditions complemented those discussions.

Appendices, p 48 / 83 476 Climatic Change (2017) 143:473 –486 supranational and national levels. This led to the adoption of ‘adaptation plans ’ at various levels of administration: ex. EU Adaptation strategy to climate change , National Adaptation strategy or Subnational climate and energy plans . In France, this topic appeared on the agenda in the early 2000s (with creation of the Observatoire national sur les effets du réchauffement climatique – ONERC in 2001) and then spread in a top-down way down to IMs. The Ministry for Environment and its subsidiary bodies 3 piloted the French national climate adaptation plan (PNACC) released in 2011 (MEDDTL-DGEC 2011 ), in partnership with research centres, utilities and IMs companies. 4 The process began with a demand to climate scientists for providing baseline scenarios of climate change in France. The mission, appointed by the Minister for the environment 5 and by a climate scientist member of the IPCC, published several reports 6 (Jouzel et al. 2014 ) describing climate projections for France based on three of the GHG concentration scenarios from the IPCC (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). Those reports established the basis for 20 sectorial action-sheets constituting the PNACC. One of these sheets is dedicated to infrastructures and transportation systems. It highlights four actions:

1. General screening of the vulnerability of technical references and standards to climate change; 2. Analysis of the impact of climate change on transport demand; 3. Development of a common methodology for vulnerability assessment; 4. Realization of a state-of-the-art assessment of current vulnerability of the French transportation system.

SNCF ’s contribution to this action-sheet was the starting point for an internal discussion on adaptation. The attention was mostly focused on the first action: the screening of technical standards containing references to climate parameters that needed to be updated according to the expected climate changes (CEREMA 2015 ). This approach is representative of what IPCC ’s reports refer to as an ‘impact-first ’ approach or ‘top-down, science-first or standard approach ’ (IPCC 2014 Chapter 2). Tasks are clearly distributed: science is an upstream activity that provides information for the decision about the future as a finished product. 7 Climate projections are generated ‘for wide application, and thus are not tied to any specific choice ’. Therefore, very little direct interaction is expected between climate scientists and the IMs who eventually use the information.

Climate change as an external constraint In accordance with this linear approach, climate change is knowable, controllable and constitutes a specific issue. Scientific information is provided in a top-down manner to fill a knowledge gap (Blanchard 2011 ) and can result for

3 DGITM (transport and infrastructures department), DGEC (energy and climate department) 4 This described process is in many ways similar to what has been observed in other European countries (AEE 2014 ) 5 The letter of appointment sent by the Ministry of the Environment to Jean Jouzel in July 2010, requested as an in-depth synthesis on climate scenarios to consider in order to implement the National climate adaptation plan. 6 On the basis on modelling work of two climate-science teams from CNRM-Meteo France (Aladin-climat model) and from IPSL (WRF model). 7 General insights have to be provided publically for free (while more tailored information might be sold as a ‘climate service ’), the public sector playing a role of knowledge-broker through its public policies (giving an official mission to scientists and broadcasting the results through official channels, being an intermediary between information needs and information supply

Appendices, p 49 / 83 Climatic Change (2017) 143:473 –486 477 instance in the modification of an existing temperature threshold in a normalized procedure such as rail installation. Even though individuals may acknowledge the complexity of the climate system and how it interacts with the sociotechnical infrastructure system, the adaptation process itself reduces this complexity by making simplified assumptions (Kane et al. 2014 ), for instance causal links between impacts and vulnerability. Consequently, the proposed responses are direct and incremental. Missing pieces of information are identified and demanded to scientists with no dialogue on the feasibility, relevance or costs of the necessary research (CEREMA 2015). 8 Climate uncertainties are treated independently from others components of the situation.

Limitations encountered: a limited appropriation across the IM activities At the end of the period covered by the 1st French PNACC (2011 –2015), sensitive standards were identified but not yet updated (CGEDD 2015 ). This approach failed to produce an engagement strong enough to go beyond a formal assessment of the procedures. According to interviewees who were involved in this process, it was not specific enough and not self-sufficient. Making it operational in the context of the railway system would have required a large amount of work with dedicated resources the PNACC did not provide. Moreover, no tailor-made climate change indicators were delivered beyond generic climate projections. Indeed, there is no link between indicators in the Jouzel Reports and much more specific parameters currently used in the industrial processes (for instance temperature thresholds in technical guidelines). This appears to be a critical sticking point, never called into question. Neither the availability of further customized information nor the possibility to decide without it (Dessai et al. 2009 ) were explored. Engaging in a direct in-depth discussion with climate scientists was not considered an option as interviewees consider that high- resolution climate projections should be publically produced and made available. It is not the revision of norms and standards by itself that interviewees judge irrelevant but the process set up to do so at the national level which was not transversal enough. According to several interviewees, climate change will not just affect a few procedures or standards that could be easily listed, but will also have impacts across the whole railway system. Mere listing instances of climate parameters in technical documents are therefore perceived as a sign of poor understanding of the system ’s complexity. It assumes that it is possible to draw a linear causal link between climate impacts and standardization documents when there are thousands of interactions between the climate system and the infrastructure life cycle that are not always formalized. Moreover, the process described above, was conducted separately from related policy dynamics, such as European discussions on industrial standards and regulation. SNCF is associated with a European cross-sectoral group working on adaptation of industrial standards to climate change. Representatives of the company took part in drafting of specific technical guidelines that propose a step-by-step approach to address climate change in any standards (CEN-CENELEC 2016). SNCF executives perceive this logic of mainstreaming climate change questions into the general process standardization potentially more relevant and efficient. Applying this type of approach might have a significant effect on practice (e.g. Rotter et al. 2016 ; Rudberg et al. 2012 ; Ryghaug and Solli 2012 ), but this is not the direction followed through the PNACC implementation. In a nutshell, this ad-hoc, impact-first approach struggles to address the diversity of business operations and its relationships with the climate system. It remains an incomplete

~~8 Cf. requests to scientists in the PNACC, deliverable 1, p91~~

Appendices, p 50 / 83 478 Climatic Change (2017) 143:473 –486 process, depoliticized and far from the strategic concerns of the company. In practice, it did not succeed in considering climate change as a potential key element in the decision-making environment. Prescriptive approach to adaptation has left very little room for discussion and was very poorly appropriated throughout the firm. At the end of the day, impacts of climate change are still perceived internally as too ambiguous and not tangible enough compared to other priorities such as urgent renewal needs and security.

~~1.2.2 Vulnerability-first: context-centred alternatives~~

Enhancing adaptive capacity by focusing on weather sensitivity Public policy is not the only source of adaptation concerns within the company. A few people in various positions in the organisation tried to raise this question locally. They did it when providing feedback on their everyday activity, or when writing the specifications of new materials or infrastructure components. They did not refer to the institutionalised adaptation process described in the previous section. Those ‘adaptation intrapreneurs ’9 know very well how the system is exposed to the weather and what its main vulnerabilities are. Most of them share a common diagnosis about the French railway network being globally robust to potential climate changes. Some extreme events might produce disruptions difficult to deal with, 10 but there are also large security margins: stabilized renewed railways tracks can for instance withstand temperatures up to 60 °C. Recent drainage systems and major engineering works are designed to cope with at least a 1:100-year flood event. In addition, adaptation measures are implemented continuously in a reactive mode. After the 2003 heat wave, which caused major disruptions due to track deformations and severe deterioration of travel conditions, SNCF took important measures: release of a reinforced heat wave contingency plan, establishment of an annual heat-day for a check-up of critical equipment, adjustment of temperature class specifications for the new regional rolling-stock, modernization of decision support tools to optimize monitoring and maintenance, etc. Willing to go beyond reaction, punctual initiatives intend to improve the understanding of the existing interactions between the infrastructure components and climatic conditions. This is perceived as a first necessary step to improve readiness and to anticipate what the consequences of climate change might be. Indeed, there is, for now, very little aggregated quantified information about the impact of weather on the French railway system. 11

Example 1: an improved understanding of the relationships between the railway infrastructure and weather Taking the opportunity of the renewal of weather service contracts, representatives from different SNCF departments launched initiatives to improve the understanding of the relationship between the railway infrastructure and weather. Through cross-analysis of weather data (observations and forecasts) and infrastructure data, those

9 Entrepreneur from the inside of a large organization 10 Rail buckling during heatwaves, fires because of droughts, flash-floods in the south of France, landslide because of heavy rain (Stamos et al. 2015 ). Old infrastructure and equipment are particularly vulnerable to this type of events. 11 Similarly to the UK (NetworkRails 2017 ), understanding the impact of weather events on the railway comes a long way. There was attempts to perform economic estimations of those impacts, for instance on the cost of maintenance (Gaudry and Quinet. 2014 ), but this aspect has not been fully addressed yet.

Appendices, p 51 / 83 Climatic Change (2017) 143:473 –486 479 initiatives pursue several objectives such as detecting current vulnerabilities, providing a better picture of the capacity of the system to absorb shocks, designing indicators directly relevant for various management operations, improving decision making tools and updating technical standards and guidelines. One of them aims at matching the internal incident databases with weather observations. Its primary goal is to improve the understanding of individual disruptions and of the conditions associated with them. A second one is the adoption of a decision-support software to trigger and conduct heat-inspections of tracks. A robust statistical relationship was thus established and validated to replace the former empirical approach. This operation aims at reducing the number of non-useful inspections conducted and useful inspections not conducted.

Example 2: a historical approach to crisis management A research project conducted in the Engineering and projects department of SNCF-Réseau 12 is exploring the benefits of a geomatics (GIS) approach to improve knowledge about flood risks for the railway network (Saint-Marc 2013 ). It provides descriptions and representations of past flood episodes with detailed chronologies of the events and how they were managed. The purpose is to strengthen the institutional memory in order to mainstream the culture of risk within the company. At the moment, it is indeed very hard to understand and compare individual weather events because the relevant circumstances are not systematically recorded, especially when the damages are not exceptional (Pams-Capoccioni et al. 2013 ). This project may lead to further developments providing a better description of the evolution of the network vulnerability through decades and questioning how the system reacts to changes.

Continuity between weather resilience and climate change adaptation These approaches are representative of what IPCC ’s reports refer to as a Bvulnerability-first ^ approach (or Bbottom-up^, or Bcontext-first^ approach) (IPCC 2014 Chapter 2) starting with the decision-making context before considering climate change projections. These discourses are more infrastructure-centred than climate-centred. In these examples, climate change is the exacerbation of existing stresses occurring between infrastructure and the environment. While not necessarily perfectly defined or understood, climate change provides incentives to improve the knowledge about the infrastructure itself. Detailed scientific information or climate change projections are almost never quoted or used. The general objective is to ensure a continuity of service with current and future climate conditions. It is consistent with many sectorial reports exploring how utilities are adapting to climate change (Rotter et al. 2016 ; EEA 2014 ; Lindgren et al. 2009 ; Ryghaug and Solli 2012 ). There is no rupture between current ability to deal with weather events and future adaptation; actions to be taken are the result of trade-off between risks and opportunities.

Context-centred initiatives responding to day-to-day concerns at the expense of anticipation and transversality These initiatives have a priori a stronger capacity to foster the uptake of climate challenges in infrastructure management. Still, they meet some important obstacles. First, interviewees reported the prevalence of reaction over anticipation. There is a strong ability in the organisation to deal with crisis, but no culture of prevention of events that have not been experienced yet (let alone unpredictable events). Promoters of those context-

~~12 This is a national department offering engineering services to business units of the group but also conducting autonomous researches.~~

Appendices, p 52 / 83 480 Climatic Change (2017) 143:473 –486 centred initiatives describe their action as a first step to enable future evolution towards more prevention. Indeed, an enhanced knowledge of the current infrastructure vulnerability may be used as a starting point to stress-test assets and the reliability of procedures 13 under different climate change scenarios. However, this development is not considered at this point. A second major limitation of those approaches is their low transversality. Most of them remain context specific and poorly interconnected. There are very few interactions between various business units, phases of the infrastructure lifecycle or decision-levels where the issue is raised. In a nutshell, these vulnerability-first approaches remain local processes of knowledge acquisition with no institutional uptake. Proposals for more strategic approaches did not raise enough interest from the top management. For instance, a prospective analysis of the climate- induced evolution of transport demand was proposed but not marked as a priority. There is no scepticism about whether there might be changes in climate, however, IMs have not considered these evolutions as potentially disruptive or as structuring drivers for the activity (Table 1).

~~1.3 Discussion of observations and comparison with existing literature on adaptation to climate change: overcoming bottlenecks to build collective ownership and enable proactive adaptation~~

In the recent years, SNCF took some steps towards an institutional uptake of adaptation to climate change. Both company executives and public authorities recognize climate change as a concern and adaptation as a challenge. However, as of now, adaptation processes have remained incomplete and do not enable the definition of a framework to generalize the uptake of this question. While the literature states that adaptation is able to disrupt classical ways of doing business (Richard 2016 ), it has been very difficult until now to challenge the current infrastructure management framework and go beyond weather resilience. As described in the first part of this article, many context-based questions related to climate adaptation are raised across the company (Table 2). However, there is no consensual vision on how to describe this phenomenon and how it affects the infrastructure and the organisation. As a result, no collective ownership of the issue is built either. A lesson learned from STS (Rittel and Webber 1973 ; Hulme 2009 ) is that the description of a complex phenomenon like climate change as a critical issue for an organization does not pre- exist. It has to be collectively built out of the relationship between this phenomenon and the sociotechnical system. Our analysis reveals serious bottlenecks that prevent management from achieving this objective. Those are quite similar to obstacles faced in other countries that have started to address them. For instance in the UK, a dedicated program called TRACCA 14 funded through the Rail Safety and Standards Board, recently led to creating an adaptation strategy (NetworkRails 2017 ) to address the ‘lack of ownership and governance ’ of adaptation.

13 That is, to evaluate their ability to deal with unusual and suboptimal situation. 14 The Tomorrow ’s Railway and Climate Change Adaption (TRACCA) program led to the formulation of 5 objectives ‘for a railway that is safe and more resilient to the effects of weather, now and in the future ’. These objectives are (1) infrastructure which is able to withstand the impact of future weather conditions, (2) rapid recovery from the impacts of adverse and extreme events, (3) improve performance and safety during adverse and extreme weather conditions, (4) leverage financial savings through reduced compensation payments and repair costs, and (5) enhance reputation and trust in the railway ’s ability to manage weather events ’.(NetworkRails 2017 ).

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~~Table 1 Synthesis of identified limitations of current adaptation approaches~~

~~General interaction Sharing a vision of climate Processes and procedures for between management change across the organisation decision-making under uncer- and science tainty~~

Impact-first Projections of future A top down approach with no Classical predict-then-act in- approach climate remaining too direct contact with everyday struments (such as far from daily concern activities. statistics-based standards) No specific resources dedicated relying on a linear, central- or provided for a transversal ized and deterministic analysis. framework with no consideration of potential disruptive changes or uncertainties. Context-centred Robustness of current Context-based initiatives do not Reaction systematically approaches weather sensitivity to succeed to demonstrate preferred to prevention, potential future potential consequences across potential breakdown not changes not the whole infrastructure considered. Knowledge on questioned. organization. the infrastructure not Scientific information complete yet. about climate change not mobilized.

~~Source: author~~

~~Table 2 Examples of concerns expressed by various interviewees during our research~~

~~Various readings of climate change Implications for infrastructure management, types of adaptation questions raised~~

Climate change as a new public concern How to respond to regulatory and policy requirements (e.g. European and national adaptation strategies)? How to accompany and anticipate changes in regulatory frameworks? Climate change as a source of perturbations for Which adjustments or modifications can be proposed to technical systems and daily organization existing procedures, practices and standards to keep them fitted for climate conditions? Climate change as a source of costs & potentially Do we know how much weather events cost; can we attribute enhanced stresses the evolution of costs to climate change? Are management choices (for instance maintenance or renewal of selected options) robust or flexible enough to handle uncertain future climate change? How to prioritize options by considering this new constraint? What type of information is needed? Climate change as an uncertainty for Is climate change uncertainty comparable to socio-economic infrastructure planning and design uncertainties? How to deal with this deep uncertainty during planning and design phases? Are currently used decision-making tools able to take it into account? Climate change as a structuring driver for the How to articulate various undergoing transition dynamics future, among others (e.g. energy transition, digital transformation, country planning, and evolutions of competitive and institutional landscapes, climate changes)? How to deal with potentially conflicting objectives and time steps?

Source: author This table is an attempt to characterize the diversity of adaptation questions raised by the interviewees. It does not depict the number of times either of these questions came up during the interviews. For example, more interviewees mentioned as a new public concern than as a new structuring driver of the future of railway infrastructure. Even though all the interviewees generally perceived climate change an important concern, priorities clearly differ from one department to the other

~~Appendices, p 54 / 83 482 Climatic Change (2017) 143:473 –486~~

These examples as well as recent literature suggest different levers of action to enable a more proactive preparation to climate change and to mainstream adaptation into major relevant decisions. i. Lack of a consistent institutional framework : satisfying the necessary conditions for adaptation. Some of the core elements of what would constitute a consistent facilitative framework for action appeared to be lacking. The process for a national adaptation policy launched by the government was not able to facilitate them.

Alternatives paths may be explored. Many situations may provide windows of opportunity to start building a common understanding of the climate related issues across the company. It might for instance be a response to a triggering event, an institutional initiative, a planned revision of the standards, or a catalysing R&D program (Ryghaug and Solli 2012 ; NetworkRails 2017 ; EEA 2014 ). In any case, it is important to structure the approach in order to ensure a strong leadership from top management, set up a clear and transparent governance, enhance engagement with external stakeholders and especially the public authorities and identify possible resources to design and implement adaptation actions (Ford and King 2015 ). This cannot be handled separately from other ongoing processes setting both the scientific agenda (e.g. development of climate services, new research forefronts, etc.) and the structural evolution of a sector such as transportation (e.g. asset management, energy transition of institutional evolutions). ii. Poor engagement with climate science : creating opportunities for a strengthened dialogue . With stable climatic conditions, the interactions between infrastructure management and the climate system remain most of the time invisible. Indeed, the infrastructure was designed to perform properly within a range of conditions large enough to absorb weather deviations. Weather is only an issue in some exceptional circumstances (extreme temperatures during heat waves, extreme precipitation leading to floods), rare enough to be managed ad hoc as exceptional crises. Climate change disturbs this well-established relationship. With more extreme episodes and less historical data on their statistical distribution it becomes harder to keep the infrastructure fitted to different contexts (Edwards 2003 ). This creates new uncertainties that could be better managed with a proper use of climate change scenarios and a sustained dialogue between climate scientists and engineers that has not yet been set up. Thus, precise knowledge about climate change—with certainties and uncertainties, the complexity of the dynamics and an enhanced variability —are never considered. Yet, these characteristics are precisely what might challenge current practices.

To build a shared understanding of what climate change is, what it means for the railway system, and how it can be addressed, an iterative dialogue with scientists might be a beneficial first step. Beyond addressing specific demands for additional information, such a relationship would allow to overcome oversimplified representations of the phenomenon and to explore possible futures (Kirchhoff et al. 2013 ; Cash et al. 2003 ; Vaughan and Dessai 2014 ). Different arrangements can be set up like research partnerships, common research projects, business partnerships, etc. Scientific knowledge can be integrated into management in many forms: participatory vulnerability assessments (following protocols such as the one developed by Engineers Canada (2011), prospective

Appendices, p 55 / 83 Climatic Change (2017) 143:473 –486 483 work based on few contrasted possible climate futures, systematic tests to assess the vulnerability of options to worst-case scenarios, etc. iii. Processes and procedures not adapted to an uncertain dynamic phenomenon : experimenting alternative decision-making tools to mainstream adaptation. The existing processes and procedures are those of a big technical organization. Tasks are divided according to a classical, homogeneous and codified industrial model. Past experiences and standard situations play an important role in shaping up these procedures. For instance, every technical document with reference to climate parameters is based on empirical evidence of past climate records (e.g. drain systems designed according on past flood patterns, the installation of continuous welded rails is calibrated for average temperatures). These characteristics reflect a rarely challenged engineering culture. They are very different from what is usually described as a relevant approach to deal with climate change, favouring diversity, flexibility, anticipation, non-deterministic planning and continuous learning (IPCC 2014 Chapter 15).

Alternative decision-making tools and methodological frameworks might be powerful and performative instruments to foster the evolution of practices. In situations such as large project conception, maintenance budget planning or standard revisions, they can contribute to oper- ationally mainstreaming adaptation into decision-making processes. The generalization of alternative decision-making tools is a matter of corporate strategy and moves forward along- side the revision of procedures and standards. However, a first interesting step might be to experiment this type of tools at different stages of projects analysis, from design phases (to display extended costs and benefits) down to monitoring and evaluation (to provide feedback). Many methodologies, including economic analysis, decision making under deep uncertainty techniques, multicriteria decision making, social network analysis, etc. have been explicitly developed to address climate change challenges (Watkiss and Hunt 2013 ; Dittrich, Wreford, and Moran 2016 ) but have not been mobilised yet in the French transport sector. A common property of this family of approaches is to disclose any underlying hypothesis and to make every methodological option explicit and open to discussion. These methods encourage more inclusive and participative decision making processes. They also challenge business as usual thinking. For instance, they question optimal economic efficiency as a unique decision criterion by emphasising the value of flexibility (adjustability over time) or robustness (effectiveness in a broad spectrum of possible futures) as complementary valuable characteristics and by considering possible surprises. Mobilizing these tools to design an adaptive management strategy, to stress test a new management plan or to choose between options is therefore not always straightforward. They are more than additional decision-support tools —they embody and perform a Bnew paradigm ^ in decision-making, which can be hard to switch to. Indeed, any procedure of decision-making or indicator implicitly reflects underlying values and societal choices that can change with time (Muniesa and Callon 2013 ; Crozet 2004 ; Doganova 2013 ; Godard 2004 ). The experimentation with this type of instruments can therefore only be carried out as an explicit strategy in cooperation with all the relevant stakeholders including public authorities, SNCF engineers and climate scientists. This last point shows that the needs and levers described in this article —common vision of adaptation challenges; enabling institutional framework; strategic support; relevant partnerships; adapted tools —are tightly interrelated.

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~~2 Conclusion~~

This paper, through the case study of SNCF, explores where and how large and complex organisation managing a network infrastructure may raise adaptation issues. In the first part, it described two types of approaches: first, impact-centred processes focusing on the mobiliza- tion of climate science upstream, which struggle to percolate through the organization; second, localized vulnerability-centred initiatives, which strengthen current management procedures but do not bridge the gap with future climate changes. Most of them focus on resilience to current weather and do not go so far as to question future climate. The analysis highlighted key bottlenecks at the interface between the production and the use of knowledge on climate change. Building a shared and politically backed vision of this phenomenon and formulating context-relevant questions appear to be essential steps to set the ground for an enabling framework for adaptation. Finally, the article presented existing tools and methodologies suggesting an alternative approach to tackling adaptation challenges. These tools have not been tested in the French context yet. How such tools can be integrated in existing decision processes, in which situations it is relevant to mobilize them, what are the conditions of their acceptance and appropriation (for example in terms of credibility, salience and legitimacy (Cash et al. 2003 )) remain open research questions. Tackling them would lead to a broader question about the nature of climate knowledge for a sector like transportation potentially revealing tensions within the sociotechnical system of the infrastructure interacting with its environment.

Acknowledgements This research was funded by the French National Energy and Environment Agency (ADEME), the Institute for Climate Economics (I4CE) and SNCF. The author is especially grateful to Christian Dubost, Bernard Torrin, Antoine Rothey and Sophie Jalabert (SNCF) for their valuable support to access the relevant people and material for the case study within the company. We thank Jean-Paul Vanderlinden, Tommaso Venturini, Benoit Leguet, Alexia Leseur, Igor Shichlov, Mariana Deheza, Bruno Lafitte and the anonymous reviewers for constructive feedback.

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OECD (2015) Climate change risks and adaptation: linking policy and economics Pams-Capoccioni C, Coeur D, Chenier D, Chazelle B, Saint-Marc C, Lang M. (2013) Impacts Des Inondations Historiques Sur Un Réseau de Transport: Exemple Des Installations et Des Circulations Ferroviaires En France. In: Evénements Extrêmes D ’inondation : De L ’étude de L ’aléa À La Gestion Du Risque Pour Les Ouvrages Hydrauliques Richard E (2016) L ’adaptation Aux Changements Climatiques Les Réponses de L ’action Publique Territoriale. Presses Un, Rennes Rittel HW, Webber MM (1973) Dilemmas in a general theory of planning. Policy Sci 4(2):155 –169. doi: 10.1007 /BF01405730 Rotter M, Hoffmann E, Pechan A, Stecker R (2016) Competing Priorities: How Actors and Institutions Influence Adaptation of the German Railway System. Clim Chang 137(3 –4). Springer Netherlands):609–623. doi: 10.1007/s10584-016-1702-5 RSSB (2015) Tomorrow ’s railway and climate change adaptation: phase 1 summary report (T1009) Rudberg PM, Wallgren O, Swartling ÅG (2012) Beyond generic adaptive capacity: exploring the adaptation space of the water supply and wastewater sector of the Stockholm region, Sweden. Clim Chang 114(3-4): 707-721 Ryghaug M, Solli J (2012) The appropriation of the climate change problem among road managers: fighting in the trenches of the real world. Clim Chang 114(3 –4):427 –440. doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0449-x Saint-Marc C (2013) Approches Cartographiques Pour Une Meilleure Connaissance Des Dynamiques Spatio- Temporelles Des Risques Naturels : Application Aux Risques D ’inondation Impactant Le Réseau Ferroviaire Simonet G (2009) Le Concept D ’adaptation: Polysémie Interdisciplinaire et Implication Pour Les Changements Climatiques 17 (4): 392 –401. doi:10.1051 / nss / 2009061 Stamos I, Mitsakis E, Salanova JM, Aifadopoulou G (2015) Impact Assessment of Extreme Weather Events on Transport Networks: A Data-Driven Approach 34: 168 –78. Accessed May 16. doi: 10.1016/j. trd.2014.11.002 Stecker R, Pechan A, Steinhäuser M, Rotter M, Sholl G, and Eisenack K (2011) Why are utilities reluctant to adapt to climate change The new climate economy (2014) Better growth better climate ToPDAd (2014) Overview of system responsiveness to climate change impacts in energy, transport and tourist sectors UIC (2011) ARISCC-Adaptation of Railway Infrastructure to Climate Change. Final Report. Nolte, R Berlin, I Z T Vallejo L, and Mullan M (2016) The role of government in making infrastructure investment climate resilient – draft survey of current practices Vaughan C, Dessai S (2014) Climate Services for society: origins, institutional arrangements, and design elements for an evaluation framework. doi: 10.1002/wcc.290 Watkiss P, Hunt A (2013) Method overview: decision support methods for adaptation. Briefing note 1. Summary of methods and case study examples from the MEDIATION project. Funded by the EC ’s 7FWP

~~Appendices, p 59 / 83 0)"#-"/&#""'-#!/'*)"*$"!%!/&#"#02#) #//')!"(!1'((#"!)""./4+&!)'#"/&'4 !0(/~~

~~ADAPTING CLIMATE CHANGE~~

~~!",0#./'*)"$*-"*0-".*!'#/'#.~~

~~Appendices, p 60 / 83 Adapting to Climate Change~~

~~Corporate adaptation plans or the pressure of finance~~

~~Ian Cochran, Vivian Dépoues, Romain Hubert and Morgane Nicol~~

Companies are or will be increasingly exposed to the risks associated with climate change, including the frequency and intensity of extreme events, average conditions, and shifting climate and seasonal variability. For example, as temperatures and precipitation fluctuate, the agriculture industry will have to ready itself for more frequent interruptions to production and distribution as a result of storms, floods or landslides. The energy sector will have to cope with the impact of climatic variation on demand — electricity for heating, for instance — as well as on production, especially for renewables. Ultimately, all economic actors will be affected, directly or indirectly, along their value chains by the impact of climate change and the measures taken to limit or adapt to it (Agrawala et al. , 2013; OECD, 2015)1. Concerns about these issues may emerge within individual companies, as part of management’s exploratory approach to strategy, a risk audit, an R&D project or even technical questions arising from operational activities. It is relatively unusual, however, for such pre- occupations to become a strategic priority in themselves (EPE and ONERC, 2014). On the other hand, firms may be obliged to tackle

~~1. Climate change will have an impact on equipment, resources, transport, demand, etc.~~

~~Appendices, p 61 / 83 Adapting to Climate Change~~

climate change issues as a result of external pressures — exerted not just by civil society and the public authorities but also a company’s financial environment. There is mounting anxiety in the financial sector about physical climate risks for financed counterparties and how these risks may influence future performance. It is highly likely that, in the years to come, businesses will be required to provide more information to financial players about their exposure and vulnerability to climate risk, as well as their capacity to manage such hazards. This article describes the rationale behind the growing interest shown in this sub- ject by financial actors, together with the possible implications for developing business adaptation plans.

~~Financial actors waking up to the risks associated with climate change~~

2015 — the year of COP 21 — marked a turning point in the drive to integrate climate change into financial practices. The world of finance and financial regulators now acknowledges publicly that climate change and the transition to a low-carbon economy pose a risk to economic actors — and, as a result, to financial institutions and even the stability of the entire system. The message is becoming progressively explicit, as practitioners and regulators highlight the urgent need to anticipate the likelihood of these two types of risk becoming reality. The physical impact of climate change will affect financial players as the consequences spread across every sector of the economy. The losses for the financial sector could be significant. Dietz et al . (2016) estimate that, if we extend current economic practices from 2015 to 2100, there is a 99% chance that the physical effects of climate change will result in a loss of $24,200 billion across all financial assets worldwide. Financial actors, who are sometimes unfamiliar with these questions, are now in a phase where they are beginning to “own” the special nature of the risks and gain a better understanding of the

~~Appendices, p 62 / 83 Adapting to Climate Change~~

issues. This step is a prerequisite for devising technical approaches and analytical methods that integrate the problems into existing risk management processes. We may now say that it is in the interest of companies to take note of these dynamics in the financial sector, which could well have considerable implications for all economic players.

~~Financial players likely to ask companies to substantiate their adaptation plans~~

Firms can at the very least expect to be held accountable to financial actors and public authorities regarding their exposure to physical climate risks, as well as the means employed to limit them; their company adaptation strategy, in other words. The Financial Stability Board, a G20 body whose mission is to safeguard the stability of the global financial system, launched a working group in late 2015: the Task Force for Climate-Related Financial Disclosure (TCFD). In December 2016, the group issued a series of recommendations regarding the information companies need to declare on climate issues so that financial actors can manage climate risks. These guidelines are still voluntary; nevertheless, economic actors can expect financial institutions to follow the recommendations (at least in part), and to ask companies to fund reports on their exposure to physical climate risks so they can integrate climate variables into their risk management analyses. In the case of France, requests of this nature issued by financial institutions are all the more compelling since they are backed by the state. The Direction Générale du Trésor (Treasury) asks banks to collect the necessary data from companies so that resistance tests can be performed on climate-related risks, as referred to in Article 173 of the Energy Transition Act for Green Growth 1.

1. Direction générale du Trésor (with the assistance of the Banque de France and the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution, the latter being responsible for supervising the banking and insurance sectors in France), L'évolution des risques liés au changement climatique dans le secteur bancaire, February 2017, http://www.tresor.economie.gouv.fr/File/433386

~~Appendices, p 63 / 83 Adapting to Climate Change~~

~~Predicted impact on finance access conditions for companies perceived to be poorly adapted~~

As financial players begin to perceive these hazards as being material, the financial conditions of companies that are highly exposed to physical climatic risks might be affected. This could take several different forms, given the diversity of players that make up the financial system (banks, insurance companies, investors, asset managers, etc.). The conditions for accessing insurance coverage, for example, could become disadvantageous. The sectors most heavily impacted by the new developments linked to climate change could also find that access to insurance services becomes more costly or is even threatened (BOE, 2015). Insurers in several OECD countries have already begun to consider reducing their levels of coverage for buildings located in flood or coastal areas. As a more general rule, direct access conditions to capital could be handicapped for such companies. This might involve the price of risk (e.g. increased risk premiums that reduce the valuation of equity securities, or raise loan rates or the cost of insurance premiums) or renegotiated contract terms and less favourable guarantee conditions for companies that struggle to adapt.

~~Demonstrating financial adaptability to anticipate the demands of financial players~~

Investors will use the information provided by companies (inter alia) to perform risk assessments. This data may pre-empt the demands of financiers by including plans that demonstrate the company’s ability to adjust and adapt. Financial players will need to assess how a business is preparing to evolve in an environment marked by changing weather conditions and, more specifically, what repercussions this will have on financial performance. In addition to an activity’s or asset’s current and future exposure to climate change, the company's ability to manage its vulnerability over time will also be evaluated. What

~~Appendices, p 64 / 83 Adapting to Climate Change~~

will matter most for a company, therefore, will be to prove its ability to implement the right measures at the right time. The resulting adaptation plans will, of course, be varied. They will depend on the particular context of individual companies, and may be drawn up in several stages with the inclusion of adaptation measures based on reactive and gradual adjustments and anticipatory actions, which may become more transformative. They might correspond to different adaptation strategies and visions, which will guide the proposed measures. In all cases, these plans — if they are to be useful to financial players — must include a prospective analysis of the financial impact of climate change on the company. This requires forward-looking information on the geographical distribution of assets and their insurance coverage, as well as wider information about the company's future strategy, activities and investments. The list of recommendations drawn up by the Financial Stability Board in 20161 2, asks companies to, inter alia, base their analyses on exploring different climate scenarios; disclose financial impact measures for climate risks and opportunities, regarding revenue by activity and on expenditure; and incorporate this data into annual reports.

~~Demonstrating financial adaptability today: a strategy with multiple benefits~~

Only some companies have begun conducting systematic prospective analyses of their exposure to climatic risk and the concomitant financial impact. Nevertheless, putting the framework in place to gen

1. Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures, Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-Related Disclosures, December 14, 2016 2. A summary of the I4CE response to the consultation on the TCFD report is available at: http://www.i4ce.org/apports-recommandations-tcfd-debat-risques-climat.

~~Appendices, p 65 / 83 Adapting to Climate Change~~

erate this information is a useful and necessary first step for corporate adaptation strategies. By considering the data needed to monitor their adaptive capacity now, companies can seize the opportunity to improve the way they are perceived by external stakeholders. Refining monitoring and reporting systems is a major first step in reassuring investors and insurers: it demonstrates that risks are being properly identified, monitored and managed by a company. Businesses will also enhance the management of their adaptation process internally if they begin to study risks now. Adaptation is a long and iterative procedure: starting today, companies need to gear up so they can take ownership of, and prepare their response to, the challenges ahead. These explorations may bring to light key — and possibly imminent — decision-making moments that will determine the company’s ability to adapt in the future. However, the capacity of individual economic actors to adjust ultimately depends on the adaptability of the economy as a whole. This is particularly true for the infrastructure sector, which is characterized by large capital investment in equipment which, for several decades, has organized production, distribution and consumption systems (EEA, 2014; NCE, 2016; and OECD 2015). It is crucial to factor in climate change, as and when such investment decisions arise, in order to lay the foundations for an adapted and resilient economy.

References Agrawala Shardul Carraro M., Kingsmill N., Lanzi E, Mullan M, Prudent-Ri- chard G., 2013, Private Sector Engagement in Adaptation to Climate Change: Approaches to Managing Climate Risks , Organization for Econo- mic Cooperation and Development. BOE, 2015, The Impact of Climate Change on the UK Insurance Sector. A Climate Change Adaptation Report by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Bank of England. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/pra/Documents/supervision/activities/pradefra0915.pdf DG Trésor, 2017, L’évaluation des risques liés au changement climatique dans le secteur bancaire? Direction Générale du Trésor avec le concours de la

~~Appendices, p 66 / 83 Adapting to Climate Change~~

Banque de France et de l’Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution. http://www.tresor.economie.gouv.fr/File/433386 Dietz S., Bowen A., Dixon C., & Gradwell P., 2016, ‘Climate value at risk’ of global financial assets. Hature Climate Change , (April), 1 5. http://doi. org/10.1038/nclimate2972 EPE and ONERC, 2014, “Les Entreprises et L’adaptation Au Changement Climatique.” Entreprise pour l’Environnement & Observatoire national sur les effets du réchauffement climatique. http://www.epe-asso.org/ les-entreprises-et-ladaptation-au-changement-climatique-avril-2014/ NCE, 2016, “ The Sustainable Infrastructure Imperative.” The Global Commis- sion on the Economy and Climate . http://newclimateeconomy.report/2016/ misc/downloads/. OECD, 2015, Climate Change Risks and Adaptation-Linking Policy and Eco- nomics , OECD Publishing

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*7)B=QRDLK)<=)I7)W?B?R7RDLK)=QR)I=)u >J=) NL ste de coûts de SNCF Réseau (devant l’entretie K)<=Q) LSWP7B=Qi)=R)P=NP?Q=KR=)rs 5M€/an aujourd’hui sc)!=)QLKR)vt)000 ha qu’il s’agit d’entretenir et OSD)ALKR)<=)l’ =KRP=NPDQ=)I=)s =)NPLNPD?R7DP=)ALK:D=P)<=)$P7K:=c)!=Q)=QN7:=Q):LJNR7KR)KLR7JJ=KR) I=Q)WLD=Q)=R)I=SP)=JNPDQ=`)NP?Q=KR=KR)SK=)B?LJ?RPD=)N7PRD:SID>P=)7W=:)N=S)<=)BP7K<=Q)I7PB=SPQc) Ils n’en sont pas moins des ) ?I?J=KRQ) QLSW=KR) QRPS:RSP7KRQ) <=Q) N7ZQ7B=Q) RP7W=PQ?Q) N7P) I=Q) RP7DKQc)(LS7KR)I=)PMI=)<=)97PPD>P=Q)LS)<=):LSILDP)?:LILBDOS=Q)DIQ)LKR)SK)=AA=R)QDBKDAD:7RDA)QSP)I7) 9DL

)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) s)d)25M€ pour le désherbage des voies par traitement phytosanitaire et 100M€ pour l’entretien mécanique des dépendances vertes )ec) t)0,!$)N=SR)7DKQD)@RP=)N=P;S=):LJJ=)SK)?I?J=KR)N=PRSP97R=SP)<=)Q=)7)?R?)P?7IDQ?=)DI)Z)7)OS=IOS=Q)7KK?=Q)7W=:)I=)+,&,) h!7R=PDK7).=KLK=i )g)C79DR7R`)P=ASB=)LS):LPPD

~~) u)~~

~~Appendices, p 71 / 83 )~~

*7)W?B?R7RDLK)=QR)SRDI=)8)l’infrastructure ferroviaire elle gJ@J=`)N7P)=Y=JNI=)=K)QR79DIDQ7KR)I=Q) talus. Mais elle est aussi une source d’incidents )b):=)QLKR)7DKQD)=KRP=)tqq)=R)uqq)qqq)JDKSR=Q)

<=)P=R7PQ)=K:7BI=J=KR?=Q) N7PRD:SID>P=J=KR) NPL9I?J7RDOS=Q`) N7P) =Y=JNI=) 7SY) 79LPP=)=JNDPDOS=Q)N7P)0,!$)7S)ADI)Q) I=Q) DKR=PW=KRDLKQ) N=PJ=R) 7DKQD) 8) I7) ALDQ) <=) JDKDJDQ=P)I=Q):LURQ)=R)<=)P=QN=:R=P)I=Q):LKRP7DKR=Q)=KWDPLKK=J=KR7I=Qc)) L’ensemble de :=Q)NP7RDOS=Q)A7DR)l’objet de P?A?P=KRD=IQ)=R)<=)QR7K<7P:=Qc)) La gestion de la végétation reste une activité principalement réalisée en interne bien qu’elle soit L::7QDLKK=II=J=KR)

)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) u) D=K)OS=)QLK)SQ7B=)N7P)J s)RP7DR?)QLDR)P=I7RDW=J=KR)A7D9I=c)) v)7NNID:7RDLK)0'%+7)b)) premier Système d’Information Géographique de maintenance à avoir une couverture nationale et accessible via l’intranet à l’ensemble des acteurs de la production depuis 2012 ; principal outil de gestion du métier, fournit de nombreuses DKALPJ7RDLKQ) sous forme de cartographie que l’utilisateur peut enrichir avec des éléments qu’il juge utile (arbres dangereux, plain R=Q)PDW=P7DK=Q`)[LK=)<=) N7RDK7B=`)L9QR7:I=Q`)7::>Q)PLSRD=Pcccic)-9G=:RDAQ)b)P=QN=:R=P)I7)P?BI=J=KR7RDLK)=R)LPB7KDQ=P)I7)RP7;79DIDR?)<=)RLSR=Q)I=Q)DKR=PW=KRDLKQ)NLSP)=K) LNRDJDQ=P)I=SPQ)NI7KDAD:7RDLKQ`)

~~) v)~~

~~Appendices, p 72 / 83 )~~

~~">;K#8L#HJF5:7MJ8K#78#D2?LJ>K8#78#C2#N:<:L2L>FE#L8CC8#IM8#5F7>;>:K#H2J#.* "#-:K82M#~~

~~) .FMJ58#X#EFL8#>EL8JE8#.* "#-:K82M#~~

~~"7KQ):=):LKR=YR=`)I=)P7NNLPR)7SY):LK~~

~~L’évolution de ces conditions est source de multiples risques )b) § "=Q)PDQOS=Q)8)W=KDP)NLSP)I7)B?LJ?RPD=)<=Q)NI7R=ALPJ=Q)~~

~~§ )"=Q)PDQOS=Q)NLSP)I=Q)J7DKR=K=SPQ)OSD)LKR)NISQ)<=)J7I)8)7::?<=P)7SY)QDR=Q)8)=KRP=R=KDP) =R)8)QSPW=DII=P)I=Q)7I=KRLSPQ)=R)QLKR)=YNLQ?Q)7SY)<7KB=PQ)OS=)NP?Q=KR=KR)I=Q):=PR7DK=Q)~~

NI7KR=Qc)*=Q)PDQOS=Q)<=):CSR=)=R)<=)C=SPR)7DKQD)OS=)I7)N?KD9DIDR?)7SBJ=KR=KRc)) § "=Q)PDQOS=Q)NLSP)I7):DP:SI7RDLK)<=Q)RP7DKQ)=YNLQ?Q)N7P)=Y=JNI=)8)<=Q)NC?KLJ>K=Q)<=) N7RDK7B=g=KP7Z7B=)=K)7SRLJK=)7W=:)I7):CSR=)=R)I7)

8K# 7>;;:J8ELK# H=:EFD9E8K# KFEL# H2JL>5MC>9J8D8EL# >EL:J8KK2ELK# 3# :LM7>8J# 52J# >CK# HFK8EL# 78K# IM8KL>FEK#IM>#EFMK#H2J2>KK8EL#52J25L:J>KL>IM8K#78#C2#K>LM2L>FE#25LM8CC8#7 e l’entreprise vis \3\N>K# 7M#5=2E<8D8EL#5C>D2L>IM8Y##

~~) w)~~

~~Appendices, p 73 / 83 )~~

SR (9#6=4C<9B9CI#6A>B4I>FJ9#M#4EE4G4?I#6DBB9#JC9#8MC4B>FJ9#EGD5A:B4I>FJ9#E4GB># d’autres –#84CH#JC9#H>IJ4I>DC#89#<9HI>DC#E9G7J9#6DBB9#89#EAJH#9C#EAJH#6DBEA9L9#E4G# A9H#46I9JGH# *=Q)?WLISRDLKQ):LKQR7R?=Q)sont en effet attribuées à la combinaison d’une pluralité de causes à la fois exogènes et endogènes à l’entreprise. Du côté <=Q):7SQ=Q)=YLB>K=Q)QLKR)KLR7JJ=KR) :DR?=Q): l’évolution des pratiques agricoles dont les effl S=KRQ) h7[LR=`) NCLQNC7R=Q`) =R:ci) PSDQQ=II=KR) =R) A=PRDIDQ=KR) I=Q) =JNPDQ=Q) 0,!$); l’importation volontaire ou involontaire de W?B?R7SY)d)=YLRDOS=Q)» liée à l’intensification des flux à l’échelle globale ); l’interdiction des NPLK es, c’est SK):=PR7DK)KLJ9P=) de caractéristiques du systèmes ferroviaire et d’évolutions des pratiques OSD)QLKR)J=KRDLKK?=Q)b)) · *=)J7KOS=)<=)QLSNI=QQ=)<=Q)JL<=Q)<=)RP7DR=J=KR)DK

~~) x)~~

~~Appendices, p 74 / 83 )~~

· Une évolution des pratiques depuis l’électrification des lignes. Comme nous l’expliquait un des experts végétation de SNCF Réseau d)'I) Z) 7) =S) SK=) Q)NP?BK7KRc)*7)W?B?R7RDLK)?R7DR)Q) 7W=:) <=Q) P?A?P=KRD=IQ) RP>Q) =YDB=7KRQ) QRDNSI7KR) N7P) =Y=JNI=) OS=) RLSQ) I=Q) R7ISQ) <=W7D=KR) @RP=) A7S:C?Q) =R) K=RRLZ?Q) 7W7KR) I=) ru) GSDII=R) <=) :C7OS=) 7KK?=c) d)7W=:) I7)

TR (9H#6=4C<9B9CIH#4EE4G4>HH9CI#6DBB9#4K4CI#IDJI#HJ5>H## Comme sur d’autres impacts climatiques #h"?NLS=Q`)sqrwi #les acteurs ont surtout l’impression de subir ces changements, d’y être confrontés et de devoir réagir sans les 7WLDP)7KRD:DN?Q`)Q7KQ) s’y être préparés. ) 'IQ)QLKR)P=Q)<=)A7DP=)C79DRS=II=Qc)*=)NLDP=J=KR)J=KRDLKK?=)N7P)I=Q)7:R=SPQ`) NP=KK=KR)7ILPQ)9=7S:LSN)<=)NI7:=c)) Comme beaucoup d’autres enjeux de maintenance, la maîtrise de la végétation est ainsi cadrée comme un exercice d’optimisation sous con RP7DKR=Q)b) B7P7KRDP) <=Q) :LKJ=c)#K):=) Q=KQ)SK=)B=QRDLK)7RR=KRDW=)<=Q)?WLISRDLKQ)=K):LSPQ) –)N7PJD)I=QOS=II=Q)ADBSP=)I=):C7KB=J=KR) :IDJ7RDOS=) –)s’inscrit dans la logique de « )J7K7B=J=KR)<=)I7)N=PALPJ7K:=)e)<=)NISQ)=K)NISQ) NP?Q=KR=):C=[)0,!$)KLR7JJ=KR)<7KQ)SK):LKR=YR=)<=)ID9?P7IDQ7RDLK)<=Q)7:RDWDR?Qc)) *=) :C7KB=J=KR) :IDJ7RDOS=) =R) d’autres pressions semblent aller dans le même sens d’une :LJNID:7RDLK)

~~)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) w)d)#K)sqry)SK=)7SBJ=KR7RDLK)<=)rx})<=Q)[LK=Q)=K)DKR=P~~

~~) y)~~

~~Appendices, p 75 / 83 )~~

~~UR "9H#HE:6>;>6>I:H#8J#8:;>#89#B4?IG>H9#89#A4#K:<:I4I>DC#FJ>#;DCI#:B9G<9G#89H#HIG4I:<>9H# CDJK9AA9H#EDJG#/*!$#~~

A côté de ces enjeux largement partagés avec d’autres questions auxquelles SNCF est confrontée aujourd’hui, cette problématique présente :=N=K<7KR) :=PR7DK=Q) QN?:DAD:DR?Q) KLR79I=Q)b)) · *7) d)B=QRDLK)e) <=) I7) W?B?R7RDLK) =QR) I=) Q=SI) J=) A=PPLWD7DP=`)LT):=ISDg:D)=QR)=K):LKR7:R)J=) R=:CKDOS=) =R) <=Q) J=)P?=I)7SgWS=)<=Q)DK

~~#C648G:#T#Q# '*!'"#*!#/#!&'$$.##/#"##(+#2#%#0+0'+*#/1.#( ’#3,(+'0+0'+*#$#..+2'+'.## # *=Q)DK:D<=KRQ)ID?Q)8)I7)W?B?R7RDLK)N=SW=KR)7WLDP)<=Q):7SQ=Q)~~

~~)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) x)2K)P=)QL:DLR=:CKDOS=)~~

~~) z)~~

~~Appendices, p 76 / 83 )~~

~~· *7)ALK:RDLK)<=)J7ERPDQ=)<=)I7)W?B?R7RDLK):LJJ=)J?RD=P)~~

*7)

~~,LSQ)~~

~~Mise en place d’une cellule 42$036'23'(/$,42+3'(&'(.$(6()(4$4+10(%*'7(#!6 ("(3'$5(~~

#K)sqrt`)0,!$)/?Q=7S)h7ILPQ)/$$i)7)=YNPDJ?)8)0,!$)g)qui assurait alors l’entretien du réseau (selon l’organisation de l’époque) –)QSP)I7)97Q=)<=Q)DKJ=`) SK) d)NI7R=7S) R=:CKDOS=) 0,!$g/$$ rq )e) 7) ?R?) JDQ) =K) NI7:=c) *7) première solution étudiée a été celle d’une délégation de l’entretien. Elle a cependant été P7ND<=J=KR)JDKDJDQ?=)A7:=)7S)

)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) z)Des limites ont cependant été constatées dans l’utilisation des bases de données généralistes pour l’utilisation spécifique d 7KQ):=Q)J?RD=PQc) 2K)RP7W7DI)7)P= )NC7Q=`)7):LKQDQR?)8)7J?IDLP=P)I=)RP7DR=J=KR)<=Q)97Q=Q)=YDQR7KR=Q)h /#&71`)/#5#7`)/#5u`) #5!7*' 2/i)=K):LII79LP7RDLK)7W=:)<=Q) 72L2\K5>8EL>KLK `)NLSP):LKQLID<=P)SK)LSRDI)=K):LSPQ)<=)J=Q)ID?Q)8)I7)A7SK=`) aux chutes d’arbres, aux incendies et patinage/enrayage sont corrélés au nombre de minutes perdues. ) rq )'I)7)=S)SK)NI7R=7S):LJJSK),LSW=7S).7PR=K7PD7R)'KJ=)=KRP=)I=Q)<=SY)QRPS:RSP=Q)QSP) I7)R79I=) –)d)la végétation a eu la chance d’être ans la liste )ec)))

~~) rq)~~

Appendices, p 77 / 83 ) maintenance raisonnée, pluriannuelle, positive tant pour la préservation de l’environnement OS=) NLSP) I=) J7DKRD=K) <=) I7) N=PALPJ7K:=) <=) son réseau. L’objectif défini ) 7) 7ILPQ) ?R?) <=) B?K?P7IDQ=P) SK=) B=QRDLK) J?:7KDOS=`) =R) <=) P=) NC7Q=) <=) d) P=JDQ=) 8) KDW=7S) e) <=Q) Q)<=Q)LN?P7RDLKQ)<=):LSN=)WDQ7KR)8):LKR rôler les recrues de ligneux ; soit par l’apport de :=Q)DKW7QDW=Q)LS)=KW7CDQQ7KR=Q)a)QLDR)=K)[LK=Q)NPLR?B?=Q`)N7P)<=Q)P=NPDQ=Q) 7KKS=II=Q)N7P)JLZ=KQ)J?:7KDOS=Q)ec))

L’élaboration et la mise en œuvre de cette stratégie a été rendue possible par la mobilisation conjointe et volontaire de quelques experts et d’une direction pilote (la direction Sud g#QR)<=) +7DKR=K7K:=)=R)1P7W7SYic)!=RR=)<=PKD>P=)7)A7DR)I=):CLDY)QRP7R?BDOS=)<=):P?=P)x)NLQR=Q`)SK)N7P) ?R79IDQQ=J=KR`)

.=RDR)8)N=RDR)I=Q)P=QNLKQ79I=Q)LKR)?R?):LKW7DK:SQc)0=ILK)I=Q)NDILR=Q)<=):=RR=)DKDRD7RDW=)NISQD=SPQ) arguments l’ont emporté. D’abord l’effet visible sur les coûts de maintenance )OSD)NLSPP7D=KR) @RP=)JSIRDNID?Q)N7P)v)LS)w)Q=ILK)I=Q)?WLISRDLKQ)b)A7:=)8)SK)NLQR=)<=)NISQ)=K)NISQ)DJNLPR7KR)DI) 7NN7P7DQQ7DR)<=)NISQ)=K)NISQ)K?:=QQ7DP=)<=)A7DP=)?WLIS=P)I=Q)NP7RDOS=Qc)#KQSDR=`)I=)PDQOS=)9D=K) identifié car médiatisé lié à l’interdiction probable du glyphosat =)<7KQ)I=Q)NPL:C7DK=Q)7KK?=Qc))

~~2K) DJNLPR7KR) RP7W7DI) <=) Q=KQD9DIDQ7RDLK) 7) ?R?) :LK~~

~~C’est bien de la structuration d’un nouveau métier qu’il s’agit avec )b)~~

~~) rr)~~

~~Appendices, p 78 / 83 )~~

~~· 2K=) BI=J=KR7DP=`)~~

De l’avis des acteurs de ce processus, ce métier présente de réelles spécificités par rapport 7SY)7SRP=Q)J?RD=PQ)<=)I7)J7DKR=K7K:=c)"=)N7P)QLK):7P7:R>P=)P?:=KR)DI)Q=)QRPS:RSP=)7W=:)SK) C?PDR7B=) I?B=P) =R) 8) SK=) ?:C=II=) P?

~~Il s’articule autour d’une communauté d’experts « )N7QQDLKK?Q)e) =R) RP>Q)~~

~~L’activité se déploie sur autour d’ SK)NPL:=QQSQ)DR?P7RDA)=R)7NNP=K7KR)h$DBSP=)wi)b) ">K2L>FE#Z#EFMN8CC8#K>LM2L>FEW#EFMN8CC8#;26FE#78#LJ2N2>CC8J#[#~~

~~'KW=KRLPD=P)I=) .PDLPDQ=P N7RPDJLDK=~~

~~$7DP=)I=)NLDKR)7S) JLDKQ)SK=)ALDQ)N7P) 7K)7W=:)RLSQ)I=Q) .I7KDAD=P 7:R=SPQ`)1=QR=P`) :CDAAP=P)~~

~~0SDWP=)I7) NPL~~

~~) rs)~~

~~Appendices, p 79 / 83 )~~

~~BIZNCLQ7R=)hDKR=PQ=Q)!'$/#c))~~

Alors que ce n’est pas toujours évident sur d’autres aspects du système ferroviaire, la gestion de la végétation est un sujet sur lequel un certain nombre d’expérimentatio KQ)DKgQDRS)QLKR) P?7IDQ?=Q)b)d)<=Q)Q),=JLSPQ)hxxi)=R)<=Q)0LSP:=Q)

A ce jour toutes les questions sont loin d’être réglées )b)I=Q)7IR=PK7RDW=Q)=AAD:7:=Q) –)I=KR)N7P)=Y=JNI=)NISQ):LSR=SQ=Q)hI=Q):LURQ)7:RS=IQ) JLZ=KQ) QLKR) <=) y:fJ sf7K) 7W=:) RP7DK) K7RDLK7I`) I=) N7QQ7B=) 8) <=) I7) B=QRDLK)

~~)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) rr )d)!=I7)7NN7P7ER):LJJ=)RLR7I=J=KR)ALS)=K)DKR=PK=)J7DQ)~~

~~) rt)~~

~~Appendices, p 80 / 83 )~~

~~">L>JFN8J#–#KFML8EM8#H2J#.* "#-:K82M#~~

~~) 0LSP:=)b) (>EB87%E#]&Y&#/=FD2KW#7>J85L8MJ#%EEFN2L>FE#.* "#-:K82M^ )~~

~~!DC6AJH>DC#: pour nourrir une posture d’adaptation #~~

~~!=RR=)~~

§ *=)NLDKR)<=)Q) QLKR) <=Q) ?I?J=KRQ) 7NN7P=JJ=KR) ALK<7J=KR aux de la réussite du processus. Cela va dans le sens d’une meilleure L9G=:RDW7RDLK)<=Q)ID=KQ)=KRP=)I7)J?R?L`)QLK)?WLISRDLK)=R)I7)N=PALPJ7K:=)J=) ferroviaire pour mieux piloter l’adaptation. Cet exemple spécifique de la végétation R=K<)I=)NLQQD9I=)=R)7<7NR?=)8)<=Q)QDRS7RDLKQ):LJNI=Y=Q):LJJ=):=II=g:D) pour lesquelles il n’y a pas de solution préexistantes. L’articulation entre le local et le national, le choix d’allouer des ressources à cette question, et la constitution d’une

~~) ru)~~

~~Appendices, p 81 / 83 )~~

:LJJSK7SR?)NPLA=QQDLKK=II=)7SRLSP)7NN7P7DQQ=KR):LJJ=)<=Q)A7:R=SPQ):I?Q)<=)QS::>Qc) 1LSQ) I=Q) Q=PWD:=Q) <=) 0,!$) K=) NP?Q=KR=KR) N7Q) I=) J@J=) :LKR=YR=) A7WLP79I=) J7DQ) I=Q) =KG=SY) OS=) NLQ=) I=) :C7KB=J=KR) :IDJ7RDOS=) JDIDR=KR) =K) A7W=SP) <=) :=) RZN=) d’organisation. ) § C’est une logique d’innovation ouverte, =K)?:LQZQR>J=`)7PRD:SI7KR)SK=)WDQDLK)<=):=)OSD) est recherché avec une posture d’accueil des solutions possibles qui se dessine. En l’absence de réponse a priori SNCF favorise la circulation de l’information, une veille active, le tissage de partenariats, l’exploration et l’expérimen R7RDLKc)!=I7)K=)W7)N7Q) sans l’intégration dans l’entreprise de compétences nouvelles, allant jusqu’à une forme radicalement inédite d’ingénierie qui se développe autant par auto gALPJ7RDLK) =K) DKR=PK=) OS=) N7P) P=:PSR=J=KR) <=) KLSW=7SY) NPLADIQ) CZ9PD<=Q) hN7P) =Y=JNI=) <=Q) N7ZQ7BDQR=Qic)) § *7)QRP7R?BD=)7Q)Q)97IDQ?Q)7SYOS=IQ) l’entreprise est plus habituée peut également constituer un point de référence pour l’adaptation au changement climatique. )

*=Q) ?WLISRDLKQ) K=) Q=) N7QQ=KR) N7Q) RLSGLSPQ) Q7KQ) C=SPRQ)b) d)DI) N=SR) @RP=) :LJNIDOS?) <=) :LJNP=K

-K) P=J7POS=P7) =KADK) qu’une grande partie des pistes explorées P=QR=KR) <=) K7RSP=) R=:CKLILBDOS=) <7KQ) SK=) N=PQN=:RDW=) <=) :LKRDKS=P) 8) LN?P=P) I=) QZQR>J=) Q7KQ) :C7KB=J=KRQ) majeurs de ses fondamentaux. Il s’agit toujours de garantir ou d’améliorer la performance en optimisant les coûts, pas d’imaginer d’autres formes d’interactions que la « )J7ERPDQ=)e)=KRP=) I7)W?B?R7RDLK)=R)I=)QZQR>J=)A=PPLWD7DP=`):LJJ=)I=):C7KB=J=KR):IDJ7RDOS=)NLSPP7DR)Z)L9IDB=P) h*LK

~~) rv)~~

~~Appendices, p 82 / 83 )~~

,.'*!',+(#/#.#$#.#*!#/##0#.#//+1.!#/# 'CI9GC9H#/*!$# g #KRP=RD=KQ) 0,!$) /?Q=7S`) /=QNLKQ79I=) P?BDLK7I) =KWDPLKK=J=KR) =R) 5A>D9 ) Abramovici, M. (2011). Attention, un client peut en cacher un autre » Gérer les clients en QDRS7RDLK)N=PRSP9?=c) #:J8J#`# FDHJ8E7J8 `) baf hti`)xrc) CRRNbffD2L8# =2E<8 `)h7NPDIi`)r –wc) CRRNbff8E58W# /85=EFCFK2L>FE#7M#KQKL9D8#;8JJFN>2>J8#;J2E62>K#8L#5=2E<8D8EL#5C>D2L>IM8# +K8J#H8EK8J#78K#LJ2EK;FJD2L>FEK#HJF;FE78K#HFMJ#78K#J:K82MP#JF4MKL8K#8L#272HL:K c).7PDQc) Dubost, C. (2017). L’entreprise SNCF confrontée au changement climatique. In B. Laville, A. #S[=K`)m)0c)1CD?97SIR)h#FE#2M#5=2E<8D8EL#5C>D2L>IM8W#ME8#IM8KL>FE#78# KF5>:L:K )h!,/0)#D2L8#5=2E<8W#>DH25LK#2E7#NMCE8J24>C>LQ#>E#!MJFH8# cabg c)h&cg+c)$VQQ=I`)7c)(LI`)7c)+7PY`)+c)&DIFE2C#272HL2L>FEX#O=2L#>L#>KW#O=Q#>L# D2LL8JK#2E7#O=2L#>K#E88787 c) 0'# C>D2L8#%DH25LK#,JFEFE2C#C5278DQ#F;#.5>8E58K `) bbd hsri`)vxwy –vxxqc)CRRNbff

~~) rw)~~

~~Appendices, p 83 / 83 !~~

~~Titre : De l’information scientifique sur le changement climatique à l’analyse économique pour l’adaptation des infrastructures : le cas de SNCF~~

~~Mots clés : changement climatique ; adaptation ; infrastructures ; ferroviaire ; organisations ; connaissance scientifique~~

Résumé : Cette thèse analyse in situ ce que Le dispositif mis en place montre que SNCF fait de la connaissance disponible sur les l’accroissement de la variabilité et des extrêmes impacts du changement climatique et ce que cette climatiques est effectivement à même connaissance lui fait. Elle cherche à contribuer à d’interroger les politiques internes et les choix la compréhension de la manière dont les grandes stratégiques de l’entreprise. Au -delà des enjeux organisations se transforment face au techniques, l’adaptation pose des questions de changement global décrit et annoncé. L’enquête, gouvernance qui débordent largement SNCF. ancrée dans une méthodologie inductive, Face à ces problématiques, une diversité de s’attache dans un premier temps à d écrire en postures d’adaptation et de configurations des détails l’adaptation telle qu’elle se fait jeux d’acteurs est possible. Ce résultat amène à aujourd’hui chez SNCF, principalement de préciser les questions économiques pertinentes manière réactive et incrémentale, au niveau du pour mieux répondre à ce défi. Cette thèse défend siège et au niveau régional (en Occitanie). Elle que c’est en tant que science de la gouve rnance explore ensuite les conséquences possibles des que l’économie, aux côtés d’autres heuristiques, changements les plus disruptifs anticipés par les a un rôle clé pour déployer les implications du études scientifiques et le rapport des différents changement climatique, explorer les pistes et acteurs à d’éventuelles transformations plus ouvrir des espaces où mettre en débat les choix profondes de leurs visions et de leurs pratiques. d’adaptation sur le long terme .

~~Title: From scientific information on climate change to economic analysis for adaptation of infrastructure: the case study of SNCF~~

~~Keywords: climate change; adaptation; infrastructure; railways; organizations; scientific knowledge~~

Abstract: This thesis describes and analyzes in The device set up showed that increases in situ how SNCF, the French national railway climate variability and evolutions of extreme company, deals with the scientific knowledge on events might actually question current policies the impacts of climate change. It intends to and strategical choices. Beyond technical stakes, improve our understanding of how large adaptation raises important governance organizations adapt to multifaceted changes and challenges. Different sub-entities of SNCF but address wicked environmental problems. Based also local authorities, traffic authorities or other on an inductive inquiry, the research describes mobility providers can make contrasted how adaptation happens for now at SNCF, adaptation choices. Following these mostly on a reactive and incremental mode, first observations, this research identifies salient at the corporate level then in one specific region research questions to improve adaptation (Occitanie). In a second step, it explores decisions. It defends that, along with other possible consequences of the most disruptive heuristics, economics have a major role to play changes announced by science and how various to unfold critical consequences of climate actors consider more transformative adaptations change, explore adaptation options and display of their world-views and practices. controversies regarding long-term adaptation.

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