From scientific information on climate change to economic analysis for adaptation of infrastructure : the case study of SNCF Vivian Depoues To cite this version: Vivian Depoues. From scientific information on climate change to economic analysis for adaptation of infrastructure : the case study of SNCF. Economics and Finance. Université Paris Saclay (COmUE), 2019. English. NNT : 2019SACLV015. tel-02083989 HAL Id: tel-02083989 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-02083989 Submitted on 29 Mar 2019 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. From scientific information on climate change to economic analysis for adaptation of infrastructure: 2019SACLV015 the case study of SNCF : NNT Thèse de doctorat de l'Université Paris-Saclay préparée à l’Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines École doctorale n° 578 Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société ED SHS Spécialité de doctorat : Sciences économiques Thèse présentée et soutenue à GUYANCOURT, le 05 Février 2019, par Vivian Dépoues Composition du Jury : Ángel Aparicio Professor, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (Escuela T.S) Président du jury Anders Blok Associate Professor, University of Copenhagen (Sociologisk Institut) Rapporteur Arnaud Diemer Maître de Conférences (HDR), Université Clermont Auvergne (CERDI) Rapporteur Franck Lecocq Professeur, AgroParistech (CIRED) Examinateur Jean-Paul Vanderlinden Professeur, Université Versailles-Saint-Quentin (CEARC), Co-Directeur de thèse Tommaso Venturini Advance research fellow, ENS Lyon (INRIA/Ixxi) Co-Directeur de thèse Aude Bodiguel Economiste, ADEME Invitée Benoît Leguet Economiste, Directeur Général, I4CE Invité ! ! ! 6LM&!_L(&M&!D(&B+M,E&!-.D!-.-/01(&! HO#UHVW !L2e!-!,M4!B256-.0!D(-/&!eM_L!_LE!&BM(._M7MB! S.2eTED4E!2.!_LE!M56-*_^!27!BTM5=_E!BL-.4Eu!*_!M&!_LE!2;_B25E!27!-!R2M._!6+2REB_!,E_eEE.! #%?4#!AT-,2+-'2+0!27!_LE!7.MdE]&M_0!2-+M&!E-*T-0Fr!:H#%!A_LE!:.&_M_;_E!72+!#TM5=_E!%B2.25MB&Fr! ?I%.%!A_LE!K+(.*L!(.CM+2.5E._!-.D!(.(+40!-4(.*0F!-.D!EL='r!K+-.B(M&!.=_M2.-/!&_=_Ey2e.ED! +-%Te-0!B256-.0u!*_!M._EVD&!_2!M56+2dE!2;+!;.DE]&_-.DM.4!27!L2e!T-+4E!2+4-.Mh=_M2.&!-)-6_! _W!5;T_M7-*E_ED!BL-.4(&!-.D!-)D+(&&!eMBSED!EVdM+2.5EV_-/!6+2,TEU&u!! 29:G>&JA&;JIO%IO,& & 2" *%&-(&)-,2%,21&,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,&-! .%130%&1%,&(.",2"(14&,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,&5! $312&-(&")0-,7+1&,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,&a! $312&-(&(383.%1&,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,&-9 ! $312&-%&2" *%1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,&-- ! $312&-%& -6%1&,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,&-; ! 3,20-#3)23-,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,&-] ! :u ! OL=_!M&!_LM&!DM&&E]_=_M2.!-,2;_q!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!"Q ! "u ! 4E^(-+BL!2,REB_Md(&!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!"Q ! Ru ! :.M_M-/!S;(&_M2.M.4!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!"T ! Qu ! ?.!M._E]DM&BM6TM.-+0!S;-/M_=_MdE!-66+2-*L!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!"U ! Hu ! 0;+!5-%.!-+4;5EV_&!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!"U ! ::u ! W2e!_W!+E=D!_LM&!5-.;&B+M6_q!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!RX ! )'".2%.&- ! T&",&%+ $##%#&3,#3)23A%&.%1%".)'T.0-)%11&,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,&;B ! :u ! E';D0M.4!_LE!M._E]-*_M2.!,E_eEE.!BTM5=_E!S.2eTED4E!-.D!-)-6_=_M2.!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!RH ! "u ! 6LE!6E]&6EB_MdE!27!&BM(.BE!-.D!_EBL.2T240!&';DM(&!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!RT ! Ru ! .E_L2D2T24MB-/!BL2MB(&t!-.!EU6M+MB-/!-.D!M.D;B_MdE!+(&(-+BL!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!RU ! Qu ! 4EJTEfMdM_g!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!Q[ ! "! ! ::u ! 4E^(-+BL!6+2B(&&!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!Q\ ! "u ! A “embedded research” setting !uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!Q\ ! Ru ! 4E^(-+BL!6+2_WB2T!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!H" ! #2.BT;&M2.!27!_LE!BL-6_E]t!](.(7M_^!-.D!TM5M_=_M2.&!27!_LE!-66+2-*L!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!HT ! )'".2%.&; ! T&%0-0&1)3%,23(3)&C,-5$%#8%&-,&)$3+"2%&)'",8%&2-&"#".2"23-,&-(& ."3$5"71,&12"2%&-%&2'%&"02&,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,&BE ! :u ! ?! S.2eTED4E! ,-&E! +22_ED! M.! BTM5=_Ey&BM(.B(&t! &_]2.4! EdMD(.*E! 27! -! B256TEf! 6L(.25(.2.!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!HU ! "u ! ?!5-R2+!BE]_=M._gt!eE!-+E!EfM_M.4!-!eM.D2e!27!dE]0!&'-,TE!B2.DM_M2.&!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!HU ! Ru ! E25E!(&&EV_M-/!BL-+-*_E]M&_MB&!27!BTM5=_E!BL-.4E!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!T" ! ::u ! 7+25!&BM(.BE!_W!DEBM&M2.t!-!6+2,TEU=_MB!M._E]7-*E!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!T\ ! "u ! A science made to be “policy yrelevant” for adaptation !uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!T\ ! Ru ! ?!62&'!.2+5-/!7+-5Ee2+S!72+!eMBS()!&M';=_M2.&!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!TU ! :::u ! ?D-6_=_M2.!27!M.7+-&_];B';+(&!_W!BTM5=_E!BL-.4Et!eLE]E!-+E!eEq!72B;&!2.!_]-.&62+_! -.D!+-%Te-0&!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu![H ! "u ! ?B_MdE!+(&(-+BL!B255;.M_M(&!2.!_]-.&62+_^!-)-6_=_M2.!-.D!+(&MTM(.BE!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu![H ! Ru ! :._E]-*_M2.!eM_L!M.&_M_;_M2.-/!-.D!6+Md=_E!D0.-5MB&!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu![^ ! Qu ! IM&B;&&M2.!-.D!_=SEyL25E!5(&&-4(&t!EUE]4M.4!-.D!M.B256TE_E!6+2B(&&(&!uuuuuuuuuuuu!\H ! #2.T;&M2.!27!_LE!BL-6_E]t!-.!-5,M4;2;&!+E[]E&EV_=_M2.!27!_LE!-)-6_=_M2.!BL-/T(.4E!uuuuuuu!\T ! )'".2%.&= ! T&123#63,8&1,)(&)-0.-0"2$&"#".2"23-,&,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,&a9 ! :u ! 2+(&EV_M.4!EL=K!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!^X ! "u ! 2+27MTE!-.D!2.42M.4!BL-.4(&!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!^X ! Ru ! EL=K!-&!-!B-&E!&';D0!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!^\ ! ::u ! )M&_W+0!27!-)-6_=_M2.!-'!EL='t!_LE!Iy4?:_!6+2REB_!M.!RX""!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!^^ ! "u ! 0,REB_Md(&!-.D!6+2B(&&!27!-!7M+&_!=__EU6_!_W!-)D+(&&!-)-6_=_M2.!M.!_LE!B256-.0!uuu!^^ ! Ru ! Projects’ outcomes and persistence !uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!UQ ! R! ! :::u ! 0.42M.4!-)-6_=_M2.!M.M_M=_Md(&t!?D-6_=_M2.!-&!-!B2+62+=_E!62TMB0!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!UT ! "u ! ];MTDM.4!-!B2+62+=_E!+(&62.&E!_W!Ef_E].-/!Ef6EB_=_M2.&!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!U[ ! Ru ! Towards a “pragmatic” corporate position !uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!UU ! *8u ! 0.42M.4!-)-6_=_M2.!M.M_M=_Md(&t!:._E].-/!M.%_M=_Md(&!72+!+(&MTM(.BE!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!"XT ! "u ! :56+2dM.4!_LE!;.DE]&'-.DM.4!27!_LE!+ET=_M2.&LM6!,E_eEE.!_LE!eE=_LE]!-.D!+-%Te-0t! -!7M+&_!^_E[!_We-+D&!-)-6_=_M2.P!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!"XT ! Ru ! ?.!M.B256TE_E!M._E](&&EUEV_!6+2B(&&!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!"XU ! #2.BT;&M2.!27!_LE!BL-6_E]t!-!_];E!B2.BE].r!.2_!=!&_]-'(4MB!6+M2+M_g!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!""" ! )'".2%.&B ! T&-.%0"2(,8&2'%&."3$5"7&1712%0&3,&"&0%#32%00",%",&)$3+"2%&,,,,,,,&--B ! :u ! :._]2D;BM.4!_LE!B-&Ey&';D0!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!""H ! "u ! _2B=_M2.!-.D!B2._Ef_!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!""H ! Ru ! #2.D;B_M.4!M._E]dMEe&!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!""\ ! ::u ! _M7EB0BTE!27!-!+-%Te-0y&EB_M2.t!eLE]E!-.D!eL(.!)2(&!_LE!BTM5=_E!M&&;E!-66(-+P!uuuuuu!""^ ! "u ! _2.4y_E]5!6+2REB_^t!Ef-56TE!27!-!.Ee!LM4Ly&6EED!TM.Er!.W._[ETTME]y2E]6M4.-.!uuu!""^ ! Ru ! I-%T0!_]-77MB!26E]=_M2.&!-.D!+(&MTM(.BE!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!"R\ ! :::u ! ?.-/0&M&! -.D! DM&B;&&M2.t! TM5M_ED! 6E]72+5=_MdM_g! 27! &BM(._M7MB! DM&B2;+&E! 2.! BTM5=_E! BL-.4E!uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!"QX