INTEGRATED NATIONAL ENERGY AND CLIMATE PLAN for FRANCE March 2020 1 2 Table of contents 1. Overview and process for establishing the plan ................................................................................. 4 2. National objectives and targets ......................................................................................................... 52 3. Policies and measures ....................................................................................................................... 81 4. Current situation and projections with existing policies and measures ......................................... 138 5. Impact analysis of planned policies and measures ......................................................................... 303 3 SECTION A: NATIONAL PLAN 1. OVERVIEW AND PROCESS FOR ESTABLISHING THE PLAN 1.1. Executive summary 1.1.1. Context and targets This draft integrated national energy and climate plan for France is based on two documents adopted at national level on the governance and programming of matters relating to energy and climate. The Multiannual Energy Plan (programmation pluriannuelle de l’énergie, MEP), which establishes the priorities for government action in the field of energy for the next 10 years, divided into two five-year periods. It covers all energy types and all of the cornerstones of energy policy (managing energy demand, promoting renewable energies, safeguarding security of supply, controlling energy costs, developing networks in a balanced manner, etc.), and makes it possible to forge a coherent and integrated vision of the role of energies in French society and desirable future trends in this respect. The National Low-Carbon Strategy (stratégie nationale bas-carbone, SNBC), which is France’s roadmap for climate change mitigation. This provides guidelines to enable the transition to a low-carbon economy across all sectors. It specifies France’s short-term and medium-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets (carbon budgets) and aims to achieve carbon neutrality, i.e. net zero emissions, by 2050. The MEP and the SNBC are closely linked: the energy scenario in the MEP is identical to that in the SNBC for the period covered by the former. The MEP covers the first 10 years of the SNBC as regards energy consumption and the energy mix. The MEP adopts an operational approach to this 10-year period in terms of government action to decarbonise energy. Compliance with the projections of the SNBC for the period until 2050 represents one possible trajectory for achieving France’s climate targets. The SNBC covers all greenhouse gases, some of which are not covered by the MEP. The scope of the MEP is restricted to metropolitan France, whereas the SNBC also covers the overseas departments. As a result, the parts of these documents incorporated into the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) may vary slightly in terms of scope. The Law on Energy Transition for Green Growth (LTECV) of 17 August 2015 sets out the principles underpinning the process for drafting these two documents. The SNBC and the first three carbon budgets were adopted by decree (Decree No 2015-1491 of 18 November 2015). The MEP for the period 2016– 2023 was also adopted by decree (Decree No 2016-1442 of 27 October 2016). The MEP and the SNBC are linked in terms of compatibility: the LTECV provides for the MEP to be compatible with the SNBC and the GHG emissions reduction targets set in the carbon budgets. The LTECV states that these two documents should be revised every five years, with the exception of the first revision, which was initially planned for the end of 2018 for the MEP and mid-2019 for the SNBC. A full revision cycle for the MEP and the SNBC therefore started in 2017 and continued throughout 2018. A draft revised version of the SNBC was published in December 2018 (hereinafter the ‘draft SNBC 2’). Prior to its adoption by decree, the draft underwent a process of statutory consultation 4 (involving the Environmental Authority, the High Council for Climate, the Corsican Assembly, the overseas authorities, the National Council for Standards Assessment, the Regulatory Impact Mission of the Secretariat General of the Government and the public). A draft version of the MEP for the period 2019–2028 (hereinafter the ‘draft MEP 2’) was published in January 2019. Prior to its adoption by decree, the draft underwent a process of statutory consultation involving the energy committees. The current draft integrated national energy and climate plan for France incorporates sections from the draft SNBC 2 and the draft MEP 2, and follows the general framework outlined in Annex I to the Regulation on the governance of the Energy Union. The SNBC 2 and the MEP 2 were drafted for the purpose of ensuring that France can comply with the energy and climate targets imposed on it by the EU. The following table contains the EU targets that apply to France and the figures forecast for 2030 under a scenario that assumes the implementation of France’s energy and climate strategy. Target Timeline Forecast National target of -20% 120.9 Mtoe compared to 2012 Final energy consumption 2030 or -32.6% EU target of -32.5% compared compared to to trend-based scenario PRIMES 2007 202.2 Mtoe No national target or -24.6% Primary energy consumption EU target of -32.5% compared 2030 compared to to trend-based scenario PRIMES 2007 Share of renewable energy in National target of 33% 41 Mtoe gross final energy 2030 consumption EU target of 32% or 33% Renewable and recovered heat +0.9% per year +1% per year up to 60% 2030 and cold in district heating up to 65% Between +1.2% Increase in the rate of +1.3% per year 2030 and +1.8% per renewable and recovered heat year GHG emissions except for land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and except -37% compared to 2005 2030 -42% for sectors covered by the European carbon market (EU ETS) Emissions do not exceed 2021–2025 Overall Land use, land-use change and removals in relation to the and compliance with forestry (LULUCF) reference period of 2005– no-debit rule 20091 2026-2030 The trajectory corresponding to these targets differs slightly from that presented in the draft MEP and SNBC published in early 2019; in particular, it is slightly more ambitious in terms of energy efficiency 1 For the land sector and with reference to a projected reference level for forests in relation to forestry management. 5 in the buildings and industry sectors, and includes recently implemented or planned measures (application of the Law on Energy and Climate adopted on 8 November 2019 regarding the renovation of ‘thermal sieves’ (buildings that lose a large amount of heat), freezing of the carbon component, etc.). The target for renewable energies was also increased to 33% of final energy consumption, compared to 32% in the initial draft. The measures explicitly outlined in the final version of the MEP and therefore in the integrated national energy and climate plan will not be sufficient to achieve all the relevant targets by 2030, in particular with regard to a reduction in final energy consumption, meaning that additional measures must be taken. The gradual increases in the carbon component of taxation were suspended in November 2018, meaning that new measures are also required to achieve outcomes equivalent to those anticipated for this component. These measures may be tabled by the governance bodies that have recently been set up (Ecological Defence Council, High Council for Climate, Citizens’ Climate Convention). As an indication of the amount of work that remains to be done, it has been estimated that the following outcomes would be achieved by 2030 if action were limited solely to the measures set out in the MEP: - a reduction of 39.5% in GHG emissions (with reference to 1990), compared to a target of 40% stipulated by law, and an expected outcome of 43.2% for the trajectory that serves as a basis for the MEP and the SNBC; - a reduction of 17% in final energy consumption (with reference to 2012), compared to a target of 20% stipulated by law, and an expected outcome of 20% for the trajectory that serves as a basis for the MEP and the SNBC; - a reduction of 36% in primary fossil fuel consumption (with reference to 2012), compared to a target of 40% stipulated by law, and an expected result of 41% for the trajectory that serves as a basis for the MEP and the SNBC; - an increase of 33% in renewable energy consumption, in line with the target stipulated by law and the trajectory that serves as a basis for the MEP and the SNBC. 1.1.2. Key strategies and measures relating to the five dimensions of the Energy Union Generally speaking, and even though the data are broken down by dimensions and sectors, it is important to remember that many measures have cross-sector effects and promote the achievement of several targets. For example, measures that reduce levels of atmospheric pollutants typically have a positive impact on GHG emissions, and in some cases on energy efficiency. Conversely, care must be taken to avoid potential adverse impacts (for example, a deterioration in air quality caused by an increase in the use of wood). When working on the scenario that serves as a basis for the MEP and the SNBC, it was necessary to adopt a holistic and cross-sector approach to the various dimensions and sectors, even if it was impossible to examine all of the relevant topics in depth. 1.1.2.1. Decarbonisation Carbon budgets: a key tool for steering the trajectory of GHG emissions reductions The carbon budgets specified in the SNBC are greenhouse gas emissions caps that must not be exceeded at national level over specific five-year periods. They define the target trajectory for GHG emissions reductions in the short and medium term, in line with France’s commitments at EU and international level.