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Carbon Finance The Financial Implications of Climate Change SONIA LABATT RODNEY R. WHITE John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Copyright c 2007 by Sonia Labatt and Rodney R. White. All rights reserved Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. Published simultaneously in Canada. Wiley Bicentennial Logo: Richard J. Pacifico No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600, or on the Web at www.copyright.com. 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Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages. For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (800) 762-2974, outside the United States at (317) 572-3993 or fax (317) 572-4002. Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books. For more information about Wiley products, visit our Web site at www.wiley.com. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data: Labatt, Sonia. Carbon finance: the financial implications of climate change / Sonia Labatt Rodney R. White. p. cm. —(Wiley finance series) ‘‘Published simultaneouly in Canada.’’ Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978-0-471-79467-7 (cloth) ISBN-10: 0-471-79467-8 (cloth) 1. Emissions trading. 2. Greenhouse gases—Economic aspects. 3. Environmental economics. I. White, Rodney R. II. Title HC79.P55L33 2007 363.738′746—dc22 2006033468 ISBN-13 978-0-471-79467-7 Printed in the United States of America 10987654321 Foreword fter decades of debate, there is now a clear scientific consensus that A climate change is occurring and that human activities are a major contributory factor. Furthermore, the groundbreaking report from Sir Nicholas Stern, released in October 2006, shows clearly that it is a serious economic threat, not just a scientific concern. In his comprehensive report for the U.K. government, the former chief economist at the World Bank describes climate change as ‘‘the greatest market failure the world has seen.’’ Unabated climate change could cost as much as 20 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP), he estimates. By acting promptly to avoid the worst impacts of global warming, however, he says the cost could be limited to around 1 percent of GDP. A variety of responses are required, including education and aware- ness raising, improvements in energy efficiency, and measures to stimulate the deployment of low-carbon technologies. But, Stern says, a key policy requirement is carbon pricing—assigning a cost to emissions of greenhouse gases—through taxation, regulation, and/or emissions trading. Thanks to the Kyoto Protocol, tools for pricing carbon already exist. The 1997 treaty, which eventually came into force in February 2005, created two mechanisms—Joint Implementation (JI) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)—to encourage investments in projects that reduce carbon emissions in industrialized and developing countries, respectively. In addition, it imposed binding emissions limits on industrialized nations and set out the rules for a global market in emission reductions. Such a market should ensure that the cheapest reductions are targeted first, thus minimizing the overall cost of tackling global warming. To create the foundations for this market, industrialized countries have each been assigned a limited number of emission allowances and those that find it difficult to stay within their limit will be allowed to buy allowances from those with an excess. Also, in return for investing in CDM or JI projects, these countries will receive emission reduction credits or ‘‘carbon credits’’ that can be used to offset their own emissions. The first international attempt to implement such a system was launched by the European Union in January 2005 and required its 25 member states to impose emissions caps on individual industrial facilities. As a result, iii iv FOREWORD greenhouse gas emissions are now a routine risk management issue, and have a direct impact on the bottom line, for some 5,000 companies across Europe. Within 18 months of the program being set up, prices reached ¤30 per metric ton of carbon dioxide (the standard trading unit in the carbon market) and the value of the market in 2005 was estimated at around ¤6.5 billion, even though a majority of the affected companies have neither bought nor sold allowances yet. But the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) represents a financial exposure even for those companies that have not yet traded since all installations covered by the scheme face substantial financial penalties if their emissions exceed their annual allocation of allowances. In late 2006, average daily volume in the market was around 4 million allowances, despite an overgenerous allocation process that means, overall, there will be no shortage in the pilot phase of the program, which runs until the end of 2007. The rules will be tightened to ensure that there is a genuine shortage of allowances in Phase II (2008–12). Other countries and regions, especially in the United States, Australia, and Japan, are keeping a close eye on the European Union (EU) scheme and some have plans for similar initiatives of their own. Several other European countries—notably Norway, Switzerland, and Iceland—have announced firm plans to join the EU ETS. In line with the Kyoto Protocol, the EU trading program also allows companies to buy carbon credits from CDM and JI projects to supplement their own emission reduction efforts. By mid-2006, more than $6 billion had been assigned to dedicated ‘‘carbon funds’’ that aim to purchase credits from such projects to help companies and countries meet their emissions targets. According to the World Bank, the overall carbon market—including the EU ETS, CDM and JI transactions, and other smaller emission reduction programs—was worth some $22 billion in the first nine months of 2006. This is more than double the figure for the whole of 2005, and compara- ble to some established commodity markets, although still very small by comparison with equity, interest rate, and currency markets. As trading volumes increase, there will naturally be a growing demand for insurance products linked to carbon prices. And, as the market expands, hedge funds and other speculators are showing an interest in trading carbon credits, which represent a new asset class that is uncorrelated with most conventional securities. Corporate emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases are therefore no longer just the concern of environmental, health, and safety staff, but are increasingly a matter for senior management, as Foreword v well as equity analysts, project financiers, insurers, and even mainstream institutional investors. In addition to the major European emitters that are subject to the mandatory requirements of the EU ETS, thousands of other companies around the world are taking voluntary action to reduce their emissions. They are generally motivated either by a desire to gain some kind of first- mover advantage ahead of expected legislation, or to boost their reputation with consumers and shareholders. The latter are increasingly holding companies to account for their contribution to climate change. A prime example is the Carbon Disclosure Project, an initiative backed in 2006 by more than 200 institutional investors representing some $31 trillion of assets under management—around a third of the world’s investment capital. The investors sent a questionnaire to the chairmen of the world’s largest companies asking them to disclose ‘‘investment-relevant information concerning their emissions of greenhouse gases.’’ Responses are made public and those that fail to respond are named and shamed. And, while the EU ETS currently targets only large industrial emitters, the responsibility for reducing emissions will not stop there. To complement the trading of emission allowances, carbon taxes are increasingly being introduced to penalize the use of highly emitting goods and services. In some countries vehicles are already taxed according to how much carbon dioxide they emit, and electricity suppliers are obliged to inform consumers how much of the power they sell comes from low-carbon sources. There is even talk among European politicians of giving individuals their own ‘‘carbon allowance’’ each year, which could be credited and debited according to their purchases, travel choices, and energy consumption. Sonia Labatt and Rodney White have provided a highly readable overview of the key developments in this fast-evolving area of carbon finance. It should be a valuable guide for anyone wishing to understand the implications of this innovative market-based approach to combating climate change.