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The Fiscal Implications of the Low-Carbon Transition

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The Fiscal Implications of the Low-Carbon Transition 2019 Greening heavy #GGSD and extractive 26 & 27 November OECD, Paris Forum industries Issue Paper Conference version The fiscal implications of the low-carbon transition Assia Elgouacem, Håvard Halland, Enrico Botta and Gurtegh Singh, OECD 2 | OECD GREEN GROWTH AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT FORUM The GGSD Forum is an OECD initiative aimed at providing a dedicated space for multi-disciplinary dialogue on green growth and sustainable development. It brings together experts from different policy fields and disciplines and provides them with an interactive platform to encourage discussion, facilitate the exchange of knowledge and ease the exploitation of potential synergies. By specifically addressing the horizontal, multi-disciplinary aspects of green growth and sustainable development, the GGSD Forum constitutes a valuable supplement to the work undertaken in individual government ministries. The GGSD Forum also enables knowledge gaps to be identified and facilitates the design of new works streams to address them. AUTHORSHIP & ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This issue note was prepared for the 2019 GGSD Forum to steer discussion around the theme of Session 1 on “Fiscal implications of the low-carbon transition”. This paper was drafted in collaboration with various OECD staff members. The first chapter was drafted by Assia Elgouacem, with inputs from Gurtegh Singh and Enrico Botta, all from the Environment Directorate. The second chapter was drafted by Håvard Halland, Senior Economist at the OECD’s Development Centre, and the third chapter was drafted by Enrico Botta and Gurtegh Singh. This paper benefited from support by the German Federal Ministry of Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU). The opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the OECD member countries. | 3 Table of Contents Executive summary ............................................................................................................................... 5 1. The role of fossil fuels in government budgets ................................................................................ 9 Fossil fuels as a source of government revenues in resource-rich countries ....................................... 9 Governments use fiscal resources to support fossil-fuel extractive industries .................................. 13 Fossil fuel consumption as a tax-base ................................................................................................ 15 Considerable funds are used to support fossil fuel consumption ....................................................... 18 Main takeaways: ................................................................................................................................ 19 Knowledge gaps: ................................................................................................................................ 20 2. Managing fossil fuels extraction revenues ..................................................................................... 21 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 21 The challenges of investing resource revenues productively ............................................................. 22 Strong fiscal management: even more important in the low-carbon transition ................................. 23 Using resource revenues to mobilise private capital: Strategic Investment Funds ............................ 25 Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) ........................................................................................................ 27 Key conclusions: ................................................................................................................................ 29 Knowledge gaps: ................................................................................................................................ 30 3. Green fiscal reforms for the road transport sector: designing tax systems for a low-carbon future .................................................................................................................................................... 31 Electrification of transport and green fiscal reforms ......................................................................... 31 Key takeaways: .................................................................................................................................. 34 Knowledge gaps: ................................................................................................................................ 35 References ............................................................................................................................................ 37 Annex A. Data on fiscal regimes in the hydrocarbon and coal sector ............................................ 43 Tables Table A.1. Fiscal regimes in resource-rich countries are diverse .......................................................... 43 Table A.2. Fiscal instruments in extractive industries ........................................................................... 44 Figures Figure 1. Energy Consumption Outlook ................................................................................................. 5 Figure 1.1. Fiscal regimes in fossil-fuel -producing countries 2018 ..................................................... 10 Figure 1.2. Revenue sources by fiscal instrument in fossil fuel-rich countries (2013-17) .................... 11 Figure 1.3. Government revenue from fossil-fuel resources decreased in most countries after the commodity price shock in 2014. ................................................................................................... 13 Figure 1.4. Total producer support in OECD and eight select economics has been steadily decreasing (in 2017 USD) ............................................................................................................. 14 Figure 1.5. Government support to fossil-fuel producers is largely delivered through direct spending programmes and reductions in corporate income tax liabilities. .................................... 15 4 | Figure 1.6. Energy related taxes as percent of total tax revenues.......................................................... 16 Figure 1.7. Effective energy tax rates across sectors ............................................................................. 17 Figure 1.8. Carbon pricing gap at EUR 30 (2015) ................................................................................ 18 Figure 1.9. IEA-OECD combined estimate of support for fossil fuel consumption ............................. 19 Figure 3.1. Global share of light duty electric vehicles by scenario, 2010-50 ...................................... 31 Figure 3.2. Tax revenue implications of IEA 2DS scenario - Slovenia ................................................ 32 Boxes Box 1.1. Why the consumption of fossil fuels is a good tax base? ....................................................... 17 Box 3.1. Distance charges in Switzerland ............................................................................................. 34 | 5 Executive summary Fossil fuels play an important role in the budget of several governments. On the one hand, half of the countries identified as resource-rich derived 50% or more of their government revenue from fossil-fuel resources.1 On the other hand, fossil fuel consumption in road transport is an important tax base for several countries, accounting on average for 5% of fiscal revenues in OECD Countries in 2016. At the same time, considerable amounts of funds are spent to subsidise their production and consumption (around USD 340 billion in 2017) (OECD/IEA, 2019[1]). This fiscal entanglement creates specific challenges for countries in preparing for a low- carbon future. In addition to the traditional challenges of volatility and unpredictability of resource revenues, resource-rich countries are increasingly exposed to the risk of stranded assets. While energy demand is estimated to grow under current and announced policies, to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development objectives and the climate targets set at COP 212, a dramatic reshuffle in the world energy mix will need to take place (Figure 1) (IEA, 2019[2]). The rapid penetration of electric vehicles (cars, buses, trucks and two/three-wheelers), which the IEA projects to rise to 30% of the global fleet by 2040 in its “Stated policy scenario”, leads to the need to identify alternative tax-base to fossil fuel use in transport. Figure 1. Energy Consumption Outlook 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2018 2040-Stated Policies 2040-Sustainable Development Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables Solid Biomass Source: (IEA, 2019[2]) 1 . Resource-rich countries are those that raise 20% or more of government revenue from fossil-fuel resources (Figure 1.3). 2 The Sustainable Development Scenario is constructed on the basis of limiting the temperature rise to below 1.8 °C with a 66% probability without the implied reliance on global net-negative CO2 emissions, or 1.65 °C with a 50% probability 6 | In this context, this paper reviews the evidence on the role of fossil fuels in government budget (section 2) and the best practice for the management of resource revenues, including the role of sovereign wealth funds and strategic investment funds (section 3). Section 4 discusses the role of green tax reform in preparing
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