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Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan Air Quality Evidence Base 5 June 2018 Tonbridge & Malling Borough Council Mott MacDonald Victory House Trafalgar Place Brighton BN1 4FY United Kingdom T +44 (0)1273 365000 F +44 (0)1273 365100 mottmac.com Tonbridge & Malling Borough Council Gibson Building Tonbridge and Malling Gibson Drive 391898 1 C Kings Hill https://mottmac.sharepoint.com/teams/pj-b6595/do/Develop/Deliverables/Rev C/TMBC- West Malling BoroughLocalPlan- AirQualityEvidenceBaseCouncil-RevC_clean.docx Local Plan Mott MacDonald ME19 4LZ Air Quality Evidence Base 5 June 2018 Mott MacDonald Limited. Registered in England and Wales no. 1243967. Registered office: Mott MacDonald House, 8-10 Sydenham Road, Croydon CR0 2EE, Tonbridge & Malling Borough Council United Kingdom Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan Air Quality Evidence Base Issue and Revision Record Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description A May S. Arora C. Mills C. Mills Draft for comment 2018 J. Brookes B May S. Arora C. Mills C. Mills Borough Green modelling 2018 J. Brookes update C June S. Arora J. Brookes J. Brookes Update to address client 2018 comments Document reference: 391898 | 1 | C Information class: Standard This document is issued for the party which commissioned it and for specific purposes connected with the above- captioned project only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or used for any other purpose. We accept no responsibility for the consequences of this document being relied upon by any other party, or being used for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission which is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by other parties. This document contains confidential information and proprietary intellectual property. It should not be shown to other parties without consent from us and from the party which commissioned it. This R eport has been prepar ed sol el y for use by the party which commissi oned it (the 'Client') in connection with the capti oned pr oject. It shoul d not be used for any other purpose. N o person other than the Client or any party who has expr essl y agreed terms of reli ance with us (the 'Recipi ent(s)') may r el y on the content, infor mation or any views expr essed in the R eport. T his R eport is confi denti al and contains pr opri etary intell ectual pr operty and we accept no duty of car e, r esponsibility or li ability to any other recipi ent of this R eport. N o repr esentati on, warranty or undertaking, express or i mplied, is made and no responsi bility or liability is accepted by us to any party oth er than the Client or any Reci pient(s), as to the accuracy or completeness of the i nfor mati on contai ned i n this R eport. F or the avoi dance of doubt thi s Report does not i n any way pur port to i nclude any legal, insurance or fi nanci al advice or opi nion. We disclai m all and any liability whether arising i n tort, contr act or other wise which we might otherwise have to any party other than th e Cli ent or the Reci pient(s), in respect of this Report, or any infor mation contained in it. We accept no responsi bility for any error or omissi on in the Report which is due to an error or omissi on in data, i nfor mation or statements supplied to us by other parti es i ncludi ng the Cli ent (the 'Data'). We have not independentl y verified the D ata or other wise exami ned i t to deter mi ne the accuracy, completeness, sufficiency for any purpose or feasi bility for any particular outcome incl uding fi nanci al. Forecasts presented i n this document were pr epared usi ng the Data and the Repor t is dependent or based on the D ata. Inevitabl y, some of the assumptions used to develop the for ecasts will not be realised and unantici pated events and circumstances may occur. C onsequentl y, we do not guarantee or warrant the conclusions contained in the R eport as ther e are li kel y to be differences between the forecasts and the actual results and those differ ences may be material. While we consi der that the infor mation and opini ons given in this R eport are sound all parti es must rel y on their own skill and judgement when making use of it. Infor mation and opi nions ar e current onl y as of the date of the Report and we accept no responsi bility for updati ng such infor mation or opi nion. It shoul d, therefor e, not be assumed that any such infor mati on or opi nion conti nues to be accurate subsequent to the date of the Repor t. U nder no circumstances may this Report or any extract or summar y thereof be used i n connecti on with any public or pri vate securities offeri ng incl udi ng any related memor andum or pr ospectus for any securiti es offering or stock exchange listi ng or announcement. By acceptance of this Repor t you agree to be bound by this disclai mer. T his disclai mer and any issues, disputes or cl ai ms arising out of or in connection with it ( whether contractual or non-contractual i n natur e such as cl ai ms i n tort, from br each of st atute or regul ati on or otherwise) shall be governed by, and constr ued i n accordance with, the laws of Engl and and Wales to th e exclusion of all conflict of l aws principles and r ules. All disputes or clai ms arising out of or r elati ng to this discl ai mer shall be subject to the exclusi ve jurisdicti on of the English and Welsh courts to which the parties irrevocabl y submit. 391898 | 1 | C | 5 June 2018 https://mottmac.sharepoint.com/teams/pj-b6595/do/Develop/Deliverables/Rev C/TMBC-LocalPlan-AirQualityEvidenceBase-RevC_clean.docx Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan Air Quality Evidence Base Contents Executive summary 1 1 Introduction 3 2 Background 4 3 Baseline conditions 14 4 Assessment approach 23 5 Air quality impacts of new development 33 6 Options for minimising air quality impacts from new development 41 7 Conclusions 45 Appendices 46 A. Local Plan strategy phasing 47 B. Defra background concentrations 49 C. Traffic data 53 D. Model verification 64 E. Receptors 71 F. Detailed modelled results 80 G. Sensitivity analysis 101 391898 | 1 | C | 5 June 2018 https://mottmac.sharepoint.com/teams/pj-b6595/do/Develop/Deliverables/Rev C/TMBC-LocalPlan-AirQualityEvidenceBase-RevC_clean.docx Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 1 Air Quality Evidence Base Executive summary Tonbridge & Malling Borough Council (TMBC) is in the process of preparing a new Local Plan with a time horizon of 2031. In collating the evidence base in advance of the Examination in Public, currently scheduled for spring 2019, there is a need to understand the air quality implications of the development strategy. The assessment is based on an iteration of the development strategy in the emerging Local Plan that was available at the time the evidence base was undertaken. This strategy may evolve as other pieces of evidence and consultation responses are taken into account. An assessment has been undertaken to provide an evidence base for air quality impacts of the TMBC Local Plan on human health receptors (ie locations where members of the public are likely to be regularly present for a period of time appropriate to the averaging period of the relevant air quality objective). Receptors considered in this assessment include residential properties, hospitals, and schools. The assessment has considered whether air quality at five proposed strategic development sites would be suitable for the introduction of new human health receptors, and whether the traffic generation associated with the proposed developments, in combination with planned growth in neighbouring authorities, would result in the creation of new air quality management areas (AQMAs) or the extension of existing AQMAs during the lifetime of the emerging Local Plan up to 2031. Traffic modelling undertaken for the Local Plan, which formed the basis of inputs to the air dispersion modelling in this assessment, predicted the largest increases in 2031 around the A20 in Allington (approximately an additional 18,000 annual average daily traffic (AADT) trips). Relatively large increases of around 4,000 AADT are also predicted on the M20, A229, Tonbridge High Street, Borough Green High Street, and Hermitage Lane. Development will be phased over the lifetime of the Local Plan and therefore in addition to the final year of 2031, an interim year of 2025 has also been assessed. Concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) have been predicted at a number of human health receptors both with and without development for the future Local Plan year of 2031 and the interim year of 2025. Receptors include the proposed strategic sites as well as existing receptors (eg residences and schools) within existing AQMAs, and worst-case receptors outside of existing AQMAs. The 2025 and 2031 scenarios assume that traffic emissions will decrease due to predicted changes in fleet composition in future years and that background concentrations will also decrease. These assumptions are based on projections provided by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), but it is widely acknowledged that the assumed rate of improvement is uncertain and therefore a sensitivity analysis was also modelled to understand the impacts of the proposed strategic development in 2031 if there were no future improvements in emission factors or baseline concentrations from 2020 onwards.

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