Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan Air Quality Evidence Base
5 June 2018
Tonbridge & Malling Borough Council
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5 June 2018
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan Air Quality Evidence Base
Issue and Revision Record
Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description A May S. Arora C. Mills C. Mills Draft for comment 2018 J. Brookes B May S. Arora C. Mills C. Mills Borough Green modelling 2018 J. Brookes update C June S. Arora J. Brookes J. Brookes Update to address client 2018 comments
Document reference: 391898 | 1 | C
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan Air Quality Evidence Base
Contents
Executive summary 1
1 Introduction 3
2 Background 4
3 Baseline conditions 14
4 Assessment approach 23
5 Air quality impacts of new development 33
6 Options for minimising air quality impacts from new development 41
7 Conclusions 45
Appendices 46
A. Local Plan strategy phasing 47
B. Defra background concentrations 49
C. Traffic data 53
D. Model verification 64
E. Receptors 71
F. Detailed modelled results 80
G. Sensitivity analysis 101
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 1 Air Quality Evidence Base
Executive summary
Tonbridge & Malling Borough Council (TMBC) is in the process of preparing a new Local Plan with a time horizon of 2031. In collating the evidence base in advance of the Examination in Public, currently scheduled for spring 2019, there is a need to understand the air quality implications of the development strategy. The assessment is based on an iteration of the development strategy in the emerging Local Plan that was available at the time the evidence base was undertaken. This strategy may evolve as other pieces of evidence and consultation responses are taken into account. An assessment has been undertaken to provide an evidence base for air quality impacts of the TMBC Local Plan on human health receptors (ie locations where members of the public are likely to be regularly present for a period of time appropriate to the averaging period of the relevant air quality objective). Receptors considered in this assessment include residential properties, hospitals, and schools. The assessment has considered whether air quality at five proposed strategic development sites would be suitable for the introduction of new human health receptors, and whether the traffic generation associated with the proposed developments, in combination with planned growth in neighbouring authorities, would result in the creation of new air quality management areas (AQMAs) or the extension of existing AQMAs during the lifetime of the emerging Local Plan up to 2031. Traffic modelling undertaken for the Local Plan, which formed the basis of inputs to the air dispersion modelling in this assessment, predicted the largest increases in 2031 around the A20 in Allington (approximately an additional 18,000 annual average daily traffic (AADT) trips). Relatively large increases of around 4,000 AADT are also predicted on the M20, A229, Tonbridge High Street, Borough Green High Street, and Hermitage Lane. Development will be phased over the lifetime of the Local Plan and therefore in addition to the final year of 2031, an interim year of 2025 has also been assessed.
Concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) have been predicted at a number of human health receptors both with and without development for the future Local Plan year of 2031 and the interim year of 2025. Receptors include the proposed strategic sites as well as existing receptors (eg residences and schools) within existing AQMAs, and worst-case receptors outside of existing AQMAs. The 2025 and 2031 scenarios assume that traffic emissions will decrease due to predicted changes in fleet composition in future years and that background concentrations will also decrease. These assumptions are based on projections provided by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), but it is widely acknowledged that the assumed rate of improvement is uncertain and therefore a sensitivity analysis was also modelled to understand the impacts of the proposed strategic development in 2031 if there were no future improvements in emission factors or baseline concentrations from 2020 onwards.
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 2 Air Quality Evidence Base
The results show that none of the strategic sites are predicted to exceed the relevant air quality objectives in any scenario, indicating that the sites are suitable for the introduction of new receptors. With respect to AQMAs and exceedances of the air quality objectives, results indicate that future improvements in air quality are the main determining factor of whether the objectives will still be exceeded in 2031 or not. Some receptors in existing AQMAs would continue to exceed the NO2 objectives in 2025, and in 2031 if conservatively assuming no improvements in emissions and background concentrations from 2020. However, the exceedances are predicted to occur regardless of whether the development goes ahead or not (ie in both the without- and with-development scenarios) and therefore the Local Plan has no effect on this. The Local Plan includes the construction of a proposed Borough Green relief road which is intended to divert traffic from the Borough Green AQMA. The air quality impact of this has been modelled, with beneficial impacts predicted for a number of receptors within and adjacent to the AQMA. Receptors located close to the largest increases in traffic have relatively low baseline concentrations, and the impacts of the development are not predicted to cause exceedances of any pollutants at these locations in any scenario. Nevertheless, options for mitigation to reduce traffic impacts and thus improve air quality across Tonbridge and Malling Borough have been suggested. These options include junction improvements and modal shift, as well as sustainable transport plans, provision of electric vehicle charging points, and some specific recommendations to target particularly heavily trafficked areas.
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 3 Air Quality Evidence Base
1 Introduction
Tonbridge & Malling Borough Council (TMBC) is in the process of preparing a new Local Plan with a time horizon of 2031. In collating the evidence base in advance of the Examination in Public, currently scheduled for spring 2019, there is a need to understand the air quality implications of the emerging development strategy.
1.1 Aims of study This report is the Air Quality Assessment to provide the Air Quality Evidence Base for the new Local Plan, with the following objectives:
● Assess the existing air quality at key strategic locations that feature in the Council’s draft development strategy in the emerging Local Plan (existing baseline) ● Predict the air quality at the strategic locations without development taking place in 2031 (end of plan period - future baseline) ● Predict the air quality with the development taking place at the strategic locations in 2031 ● Assess whether or not the development of strategic sites will trigger, singularly and/or cumulatively, the creation of new air quality management areas (AQMAs) or the extension of existing AQMAs during the lifetime of the emerging Local Plan (up to 2031) ● Propose mitigation measures to reduce the impacts of development of the strategic sites on air quality to avoid unacceptable risks from air pollution. In conjunction with this air quality evidence base, an assessment is required of whether or not the development of strategic sites, coupled with growth scenarios in neighbouring districts/unitary authorities, will result in unacceptable harm to the air quality in the vicinity of sensitive ecological designated international sites, eg North Downs Woodland Special Area of Conservation (SAC). This aspect is addressed in the separate Habitat Regulations Assessment: Stage 1 (Air Quality Screening) report, produced by Mott MacDonald for TMBC in May 2018.
1.2 Report structure and content This report is structured as follows:
● Section 1 (this section): introduction ● Section 2 sets out the background and context to the upcoming Tonbridge and Malling Local Plan, air quality legislation, and transport policies ● Section 3 assesses the baseline conditions of the current air quality and pollutant emissions, including a review of previous studies in the area ● Section 4 describes the assessment approach ● Section 5 considers the potential air quality impacts of new development in Tonbridge and Malling ● Section 6 explores possible air quality improvements ● Section 7 provides conclusions and recommendations from the study
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 4 Air Quality Evidence Base
2 Background
2.1 Strategic development proposed
2.1.1 Tonbridge and Malling context TMBC is carrying out a comprehensive review of Local Plan policies in line with the National Planning Policy Framework1. At this stage, the final key strategic development sites are not yet confirmed, however TMBC has provided initial information relating to five strategic development sites (A to E), comprised of nine individual plots as summarised in Table 1. The location of these five sites and the constituent development plots (labelled by plot reference) are shown in Figure 1. For the purposes of this air quality assessment, it is assumed that these five strategic sites will be taken forward into the Local Plan.
Table 1: Strategic sites Strategic Plot name Plot ref Ward National Grid Area site reference (ha) X Y A Bushey Wood, Eccles 15 Aylesford North 572712 160517 33.24 and Walderslade B Barming Depot, 8 Aylesford South 572932 156979 2.63 Hermitage Lane West of Hermitage 13 Aylesford South 572714 157386 1.93 Lane Whitepost Field, 27 Aylesford South 573085 157375 33.88 Aylesford East Malling Research 5 Aylesford 572083 156893 62.10 Station South/Ditton C Borough Green 33 Borough Green 560667 157811 31.89 Gardens Phase 1A and Long Mill Borough Green 11 Borough Green 561767 157914 54.70 Gardens Phase 1B and Long Mill D North of Kings Hill 23 Kings Hill/ East 568458 156080 50.77 Malling E Upper & Lower 26 Tonbridge - Judd 557554 145577 22.93 Haysden, Tonbridge Source: TMBC (2017)
1 Department for Communities and Local Government, National Planning Policy Framework, 2012.
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 5 Air Quality Evidence Base
Figure 1: Location of strategic sites and constituent development plots
Source: TMBC (2017)
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 6 Air Quality Evidence Base
Each development site will comprise of new residential properties and educational facilities as required to support the additional population. Development of the strategic sites will be phased from 2019 to 2031 (the final year of the Local Plan), however some sites are also expected to have additional development beyond 2031. The total number of properties and phasing approach for each individual development plot are presented in detail in Appendix A and summarised in Figure 2.
Figure 2: Cumulative development totals (2019 to 2031) for strategic development sites
Source: Mott MacDonald (adapted from TMBC data)
2.1.2 Growth scenarios in neighbouring districts/unitary authorities Growth scenarios in neighbouring districts, for example committed development and neighbouring authorities’ local plans, have been accounted for in the traffic data used within this assessment. The traffic data has been calculated using information from the Department for Transport (DfT) TEMPro database, which considers strategic development plans across districts to estimate projected numbers of jobs and households in future years. The traffic growth factors calculated in TEMPro therefore account for the cumulative impacts of growth both within TMBC and within neighbouring districts. To avoid double counting Local Plan traffic growth from the Tonbridge and Malling area, the number of jobs and households in TEMPro for the Tonbridge and Malling area has been adjusted, thereby only taking into consideration the growth from neighbouring districts and manually adding the Tonbridge and Malling trip generation.
The adjusted TEMPro background traffic growth factors for future years have been applied to the existing traffic count data obtained for this assessment. Tonbridge and Malling Local Plan trips have been added to those factored traffic counts, in accordance with the traffic distribution and assignment used for the TMBC Local Plan Transport Assessment. Refer to the Transport Assessment prepared by Mott MacDonald for further details of the traffic assumptions and calculations.
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 7 Air Quality Evidence Base
2.2 Air quality legislation and policy This Section summarises the relevant international and national legislation, policy, and planning guidance in relation to air quality. In addition, UK regional and local planning policy guidance has been reviewed in order to identify relevant air quality policy implications.
2.2.1 Legislation
2.2.1.1 European Union EU Framework Directive 2008/50/EC on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe was adopted in May 20082. This Directive defines limit values and times by which they are to be achieved for the purpose of protecting human health and the environment by avoiding, reducing, or preventing harmful concentrations of air pollutants.
Directive 2008/50/EC sets out that the Limit Values apply everywhere with the exception of:
● Any locations situated within areas where members of the public do not have access and there is no fixed habitation ● In accordance with Article 2(1), on factory premises or at industrial installations to which all relevant provisions concerning health and safety at work apply ● On the carriageway of roads; and on the central reservations of roads except where there is normally pedestrian access to the central reservation The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) assesses and reports on the compliance with the Air Quality Directive for each of the 43 zones and agglomeration across the UK.
2.2.1.2 England Air Quality The Air Quality Standards Regulations 20103 came into force in June 2010; they implement the EU’s Directive 2008/50/EC on ambient air quality.
Part IV of the Environment Act 19954 requires that every local authority shall periodically carry out a review of air quality within its area, including likely future air quality. As part of this review, the authority must assess whether air quality objectives are being achieved, or likely to be achieved within the relevant periods. Any parts of an authority’s area where the objectives are not being achieved, or are not likely to be achieved within the relevant period must be identified and declared as an Air Quality Management Area (AQMA). Once such a declaration has been made, Authorities are under a duty to prepare an Action Plan which sets out measures to pursue the achievement of the air quality objectives within the AQMA.
The air quality objectives specifically for use by local authorities in carrying out their air quality management duties are set out in the Air Quality (England) Regulations 20005 and the Air Quality (England) (Amendment) Regulations 20026. In most cases, the air quality objectives are numerically synonymous with the limit values specified in the EU Directives although compliance dates differ.
2 European Union. (1996), ‘Ambient air quality assessment management’, Framework Directive 2008/50/EC. 3 Statutory Instrument. (2010), ‘The Air Quality Standards Regulations’, No. 1001. Queen's Printer of Acts of Parliament. 4 Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs. (2003), ‘Part IV of the Environment Act 1995 Local Air Quality Management’. 5 Statutory Instrument. (2000), ‘Air Quality (England) Regulations’, No. 928. Queen's Printer of Acts of Parliament. 6 Statutory Instrument. (2002), ‘Air Quality (England) (Amendment) Regulations’, No. 3043. Queen's Printer of Acts of Parliament.
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 8 Air Quality Evidence Base
The Environment Act also requires that the UK Government produces a national ‘Air Quality Strategy’ (AQS) containing standards, objectives, and measures for improving ambient air quality and to keep these policies under review. Further details of the AQS are presented in Section 2.2.2.1.
2.2.2 Policy
2.2.2.1 UK Air Quality Strategy As described above, the Environment Act 1995 requires the UK Government to produce a national AQS. The AQS establishes the UK framework for air quality improvements. Measures agreed at the national and international level are the foundations on which the strategy is based. The first Air Quality Strategy was adopted in 19977 and replaced by the Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland published in January 20008. The 2000 Strategy has subsequently been replaced by the Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland 20079.
The Environment Act 1995 requires that the Environment Agency has regard to the AQS in exercising its pollution control functions. Local Authorities are also required to work towards the Strategy’s objectives prescribed in regulations for that purpose.
The air quality objectives in the AQS are a statement of policy intentions and policy targets. As such, there is no legal requirement to meet these objectives except in as far as they mirror any equivalent legally binding Limit Values in EU Directives and English Regulations.
2.2.2.2 National Planning Policy Framework The National Planning Policy Framework10 sets out government planning policies for England. With regard to air quality it states:
Paragraph 109: “The planning system should contribute to and enhance the natural and local environment by:… preventing both new and existing development from contributing to or being put at unacceptable risk from, or being adversely affected by unacceptable levels of soil, air, water or noise pollution or land instability…”
And Paragraph 120: “To prevent unacceptable risks from pollution and land instability, planning policies and decisions should ensure that new development is appropriate for its location. The effects (including cumulative effects) of pollution on health, the natural environment or general amenity, and the potential sensitivity of the area or proposed development to adverse effects from pollution, should be taken into account.”
And Paragraph 124: “Planning decisions should ensure that any new development in Air Quality Management Areas is consistent with the local air quality action plan.”
7 Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs. (March 1997), ‘The United Kingdom National Air Quality Strategy’, Cm 3587, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs. 8 Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs. (January 2000), ‘The Environment Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – Working Together for Clean Air’, Cm 4548, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs. 9 Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs. (July 2007), ‘The Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland’, Cm 7169, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs. 10 Department of Communities and Local Government (March 2012). Planning Policy Framework.
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 9 Air Quality Evidence Base
National Planning Policy Framework Guidance On 6 March 2014, the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) published a national planning practice guidance web-based resource11.
The National Planning Guidance includes a dedicated Section on ‘Air Quality’. It notes that, for new planning applications, the local planning authority may want to know about:
● The ‘baseline’ local air quality ● Whether the proposed development could significantly change air quality during the construction and operational phases, and/or ● Whether there is likely to be a significant increase in the number of people exposed to a problem with air quality, such as when new residential properties are proposed in an area known to experience poor air quality. It also states the following12 in relation to determining whether air quality is relevant to a planning decision:
“Concerns could arise if the development is likely to generate air quality impact in an area where air quality is known to be poor. They could also arise where the development is likely to adversely impact upon the implementation of air quality strategies and action plans and/or, in particular, lead to a breach of EU legislation (including that applicable to wildlife).”
2.2.3 Existing local policy
2.2.3.1 TMBC Air Quality Action Plan (draft) 2011 Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council (TMBC) published a draft Air Quality Action Plan13 in 2011, detailing measures to reduce pollutant concentrations within the six Air Quality Management Areas (AQMA) declared in different locations across the Borough between 2001 and 2008.
Since then, a new AQMA has been declared in 2013 in Borough Green, and the list of measures has been updated yearly.
The current list of active measures, as detailed in the 2017 Air Quality Annual Status Report14, is as follows:
● “Seek to adopt the Kent and Medway Air Quality and Development Control Guidance as a material consideration in planning decisions. ● Joint bus retro fitting project with Maidstone BC ● Ensure development likely to have an air quality impact on the AQMAs is appropriately assessed consideration is made to mitigation as necessary and use of S106 agreements or through a Community Infrastructure Levy, should this prove possible. ● TMBC will continue its active involvement and support for the Council’s Action Plan Steering Group, the Kent and Medway Air Quality Partnership and joint working with neighbouring boroughs on shared air quality issues.
11 National Planning Practice Guidance web-based resource. Accessible at: http://planningguidance.planningportal.gov.uk/ 12 National Planning Practice Guidance ‘Air Quality Section’. Accessible at: http://planningguidance.planningportal.gov.uk/blog/guidance/air-quality-new/why-should-planning-be-concerned-about-air-quality/ 13 Tonbridge & Malling Borough Council, Environment Act 1995 LAQM Draft Air Quality Action Plan, June 2011 14 Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council, 2017 Air Quality Annual Status Report (ASR), July 2017.
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 10 Air Quality Evidence Base
● TMBC will continue to work with KCC and other partners to support and promote sustainable transport initiatives and encourage the uptake of alternative modes of travel to the car. ● TMBC will assess planning applications to ensure all relevant air quality issues are highlighted and mitigation measures considered where appropriate. ● TMBC will continue to monitor air quality throughout the borough and ensure information is readily available to the public in an easily understood form. ● TMBC will ensure that all air quality monitoring data reported to the public is accurate by continuing to implement quality assurance and control (QA/QC) measures. ● TMBC will continue to assess air quality across the borough and establish additional monitoring sites in locations where necessary if new areas of potential poor air quality are identified.”
2.2.3.2 Kent & Medway Air Quality Partnership – Air Quality Planning Guidance 2015 The Kent & Medway Air Quality Partnership developed the Air Quality Planning Guidance15 to improve air quality across Kent and Medway, encourage emissions reductions to improve the environment and health of the population and provide across the Kent and Medway area in the approach to air quality in the planning regime.
Two versions of the guidance have been produced (Option A and Option B), which differ in terms of their approach to mitigation. TMBC has adopted Option B as its Supplementary Planning Document.
The Option B Guidance provides developers with clear information as to what it will require and consistency in how it will approach planning applications in terms of air quality. It sets out clear criteria for determination of significance of air quality impacts, reported here in Table 2.
Table 2: Classification of impacts due to changes in pollutant concentration Classification Concentration change Or if development contribution causes of impact due to development Very high Increase > 10% Worsening of air quality within an existing AQMA Creation of a new AQMA Introduction of new receptors within an existing AQMA High Increase > 5% and < 10% Levels to be within 5% AQO Medium Increase > 1% and < 5% Levels to be within 10% AQO Low/imperceptible Increase < 1% - Notes: Concentrations are relative to national air quality objective levels (AQO). Source: Kent & Medway Air Quality Partnership. Air Quality Planning Guidance (Mitigation Option B). December 2015.
The Guidance also outlines the following guidelines for planning determinations by the local planning authorities:
● “An overriding consideration will be to ensure that the air quality in existing Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs) does not worsen by the introduction of a development and/or that there is no additional air pollution burden from a development(s) which could create new AQMAs. ● Each decision must be a balance of all material considerations depending upon the individual merits and circumstances. The weight to be given to the impact on air quality in the consideration of a planning application and the acceptability of proposed mitigation
15 Kent & Medway Air Quality Partnership. Air Quality Planning Guidance (Mitigation Option B). December 2015.
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 11 Air Quality Evidence Base
measures lies with the relevant local planning authority. Any agreed measures will be taken forward by condition where possible, or through the use of Section 106 agreements. ● Refusal of a planning application may still result if air quality impacts from a development remain, even after all reasonable means to mitigate the impacts on air quality have been exhausted.”
2.2.3.3 Kent Environment Strategy 2016 The Kent Environment Strategy 201616 has been developed by local and county authorities in Kent, together with partners, communities and business, to enhance and make the most of Kent’s environmental benefits.
The strategy sets indicators and targets to inform the Implementation Plan. The “Health and Wellbeing” outcome has the target to “decrease the number of days of moderate or higher air pollution and the concentration of pollutants”.
2.2.3.4 Local Transport Plan for Kent (LTP4) 2017 Kent County Council published in July 2017 the new Local Transport Plan 4: Delivering Growth without Gridlock 2016–203117 which outlines the strategic priorities and policies for transport across the county.
The Plan details five overarching policies targeting specific outcomes. The most relevant for air quality are:
“Outcome 1: Economic growth and minimised congestion Policy: Deliver resilient transport infrastructure and schemes that reduce congestion and improve journey time reliability to enable economic growth and appropriate development, meeting demand from a growing population.”
And:
“Outcome 5: Better health and wellbeing Policy: Provide and promote active travel choices for all members of the community to encourage good health and wellbeing, and implement measures to improve local air quality.”
The Plan also identifies the following Local Priorities for Tonbridge and Malling:
● “M25/M26 east facing slips to alleviate movement restrictions; ● M20 Junctions 3 – 5 ‘smart’ (managed) motorway system ● Improvements for A229 Bluebell Hill and other routes connecting the M20 and M2 ● A20 corridor improvements between A228 and M20 Junction 5 ● Borough Green Relief Road ● Tackling congestion in Tonbridge town ● Tonbridge town centre regeneration ● Potential for Urban Traffic Control (traffic signal coordination) in Tonbridge to help alleviate congestion and improve air quality ● Wateringbury A26/B2015 junction improvements
16 Kent County Council, Kent Environment Strategy – A strategy for Environment, Health and Economy, March 2016. 17 Kent County Council, Local Transport Plan 4: Delivering Growth without Gridlock 2016–2031, July 2017
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 12 Air Quality Evidence Base
● Improvements to B2246 Hermitage Lane between its junctions with the A26 Tonbridge Road and A20 London Road to ease congestion ● A228 corridor improvements ● Implementation of the Tonbridge & Malling Cycling Strategy
2.2.4 Summary This Section has identified the legislation and policy framework relevant to the assessment. On the basis of the above, applicable numerical standards are summarised in Table 3 hereafter referred to as air quality ‘objectives’. It should be noted that the air quality objectives only apply in locations of relevant exposure ie where members of the public might reasonably be exposed to pollutants for the respective averaging periods.
Table 3: Relevant air quality objectives Pollutant Averaging Air quality objectives Attainment date period Concentration Allowance Nitrogen 1 hour 200µg/m3 18 per calendar 31 December 2005(a)(b) (e) dioxide (NO2) year 1 January 2010(c) Annual 40µg/m3 - 31 December 2005(a)(b) 1 January 2010(c)(d) Particulates 24 hour 50µg/m3 35 per calendar 31 December 2004(a)(b) (f) (PM10) year 1 January 2005(c) Annual 40µg/m3 - 31 December 2004(a)(b) 1 January 2005(c)(d) Particulates Annual 25µg/m3 - 2020(b)(g) (PM2.5) 2010(c)(h) Notes: (a) Air Quality (England) Regulations 2000 as amended. (b) Air Quality Strategy 2007. (c) EU Directive 2008/50/EEC on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe and The Air Quality Standards Regulations 2010. (d) Derogations (time extensions) to 1 January 2015 were agreed by the EU for meeting the NO2 limit values in some zones/agglomerations. In March 2011, the Commission agreed the UK's revised application for a time extension for meeting the daily PM10 limit value, granting a "temporary and conditional exemption" for the Greater London urban area. (e) Can be expressed as the 99.79th percentile of 1 hour means. (f) Can be expressed as the 90.41st percentile of 24 hour means. (g) Also a ‘Target’ of 15% reduction in annual mean concentrations at urban background between 2010 and 2020. (h) Also a ‘Target’ of 20% reduction in annual mean concentrations at urban background between 2010 and 2020. Table 4 provides details of where the objectives should and should not apply and therefore the types of receptors that are relevant to the assessment.
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Table 4: Locations where the air quality objectives apply Averaging period Objectives should apply at: Objectives should not apply at: Annual All locations where members of the Building façades of offices or other public might be regularly exposed. places of work where members of the Building façades of residential properties, public do not have regular access. schools, hospitals, care homes etc. Hotels, unless people live there as their permanent residence. Gardens of residential properties. Kerbside sites (as opposed to locations at the building façade), or any other location where public exposure is expected to be short-term. 24 hour All locations where the annual mean Kerbside sites (as opposed to locations objective would apply, together with at the building façade), or any other hotels. Gardens of residential properties. location where public exposure is expected to be short-term. 1 hour All locations where the annual mean and Kerbside sites where the public would 24 and 8-hour mean objectives apply. not be expected to have regular access. Kerbside sites (for example, pavements of busy shopping streets). Those parts of car parks, bus stations and railway stations etc. which are not fully enclosed, where members of the public might reasonably be expected to spend one hour or more. Any outdoor locations where members of the public might be reasonably expected to spend one hour or longer. Source: LAQM TG1618
18 Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (2016), Local Air Quality Management – Technical Guidance (16).
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3 Baseline conditions
3.1 Overview Information on air quality within the UK is available from a variety of sources including Local Authorities, national network monitoring sites and other published sources. The primary sources of data examined in this assessment are from TMBC and Defra.
3.2 Local Authority Review and Assessment There are currently seven AQMAs in Tonbridge and Malling, declared between 2001 and 2013 for exceedances of the annual NO2 objective. One of them (M20 AQMA) has also a declaration for exceedance of the daily PM10 air quality objective. Details of the current AQMAs are reported in Table 5, and their locations are shown in Figure 3.
During the appraisal of the 2016 TMBC Annual Status Report, Defra recommended four AQMAs be reviewed and “consideration given to revoking these”19. Based on monitoring data from 2016, exceedances of the annual mean NO2 objective were recorded in all AQMAs except for Ditton and M20. TMBC has stated that the Ditton AQMA is currently under consultation to be revoked. The M20 AQMA instead is being retained, since the highest annual mean NO2 concentration measured in 2016 (35.5μg/m3) is close to 90% of the objective (40μg/m3).
Table 5: Air Quality Management Areas in Tonbridge and Malling AQMA name Date of Pollutants City/town Description declaration and air quality objectives
M20 AQMA 1 May 2001 NO2 annual Larkfield / An area extending 39m from the centreline along mean Ditton the M20 motorway between the points where it
PM10 24 hour passes below New Hythe Lane, Larkfield to the mean west and where it crosses Hall Road, Aylesford to the east.
Wateringbury 1 June 2005 NO2 annual Wateringbury An area incorporating the Red Hill/Tonbridge AQMA mean Road A26 crossroads in the Parish of Wateringbury.
Tonbridge 1 June 2005 NO2 annual Tonbridge An area incorporating the High Street between High Street mean Botany and the High Street/Vale Road AQMA roundabout, Tonbridge.
Ditton AQMA 1 June 2005 NO2 annual Ditton An area incorporating the Station Road/London mean Road A20 crossroads in the Parish of Ditton.
Larkfield 1 October NO2 annual Larkfield An area encompassing the A20 London Road in AQMA 2008 mean East Malling, Larkfield and Ditton, including the junction with New Hythe Lane.
Aylesford 1 October NO2 annual Aylesford An area encompassing the A20 London Road in AQMA 2008 mean Aylesford, including the junction with Hall Road and Mills Road.
No 7 Borough 1 April 2013 NO2 annual Borough Parts of Sevenoaks Road A25, Western Road Green AQMA mean Green and the High Street in Borough Green. Source: TMBC Air Quality Annual Status Report 2017, Defra UK-AIR Air Information Resource.
19 Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council (2017) ‘2017 Air Quality Annual Status Report (ASR) for Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council’
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Figure 3: Air Quality Management Areas in Tonbridge and Malling
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3.3 Automatic monitoring
3.3.1 Overview
TMBC undertakes automatic monitoring for NO2 at one site within the borough (‘Tonbridge Roadside 2’). This automatic monitoring site is located in central Tonbridge, on the A26 within the Tonbridge High Street AQMA, approximately 1km north east of site E, the closest strategic development site. The monitor is classified as a roadside site and is therefore not considered representative of background concentrations. Nonetheless, data has been presented in this section for reference.
In addition, there is a rural background monitoring site located in neighbouring Maidstone district (‘Maidstone Rural’), approximately 4.2km east of the Tonbridge and Malling borough boundary and 6.7km from the closest strategic development site, B. This site monitors NO2, SO2 and PM10 concentrations. The locations of monitoring sites discussed within this section are presented in Figure 4.
Figure 4: Automatic monitoring sites relevant to this assessment
3.3.2 Nitrogen dioxide The automatic monitoring results from the Tonbridge Roadside and Maidstone Rural monitoring sites are presented below in Table 6. The results from 2013 to 2017 show that concentrations at
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Tonbridge Roadside consistently exceeded the annual mean objective and met the hourly mean objective for NO2.
Table 6: Automatic monitoring data for NO2 3 Site Site National Grid Annual mean NO2 concentration, µg/m (number of name classification reference hours >200µg/m3 in brackets) (a) X Y 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017(b) Tonbridge Roadside 558877 146185 48.5 (0) 46.6 (2) 45.8 (0) 46.8 (2) 50 (1) Roadside 2 (ZT5) Maidstone Rural 580108 159703 13.5 (0) 12.3 (0) 12.6 (0) 12 (0) 12 (0) Rural background (CM2) Notes: (a) Data capture for all sites and years is >75%, except in 2015 for Maidstone Rural. (b) Provisional data. Source: TMBC Air Quality Annual Status Report 2017, Maidstone District Council Air Quality Annual Status Report 2017, Kent and Medway Air Quality Monitoring Network (KentAir).
3.3.3 Particulate matter (PM10)
PM10 concentrations at the Maidstone Rural monitoring station reported no exceedances of the annual or 24-hour mean objectives between 2013 and 2017, as presented below in Table 7. No PM10 monitoring is undertaken at the Tonbridge Roadside site.
Table 7: Automatic monitoring data for PM10 3 Site Site National Grid Annual mean PM10 concentration, µg/m (number of days name classification reference above 50µg/m3 in brackets) X Y 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017(1) Maidstone Rural 580108 159703 18.8 (1) 25.3 (18) 19.4 (3) 20 (4) 23 (4) Rural background Notes: (1) Annual data capture lower than 75%. Provisional data. Source: Maidstone District Council Air Quality Annual Status Report 2017, Kent and Medway Air Quality Monitoring Network (KentAir).
3.4 Non-automatic monitoring
TMBC undertakes non-automatic monitoring of NO2 with diffusion tubes at 54 sites across the district, including three urban background monitoring sites, the locations of which are shown in Figure 5. Urban background sites can be used to determine baseline concentrations for the study area.
Roadside sites are not considered representative of background locations, but are used in the process of model verification, as described in section 4.8 and Appendix C. Therefore, concentrations at relevant roadside sites within the study area have also been presented in this section for reference. This comprises 42 TMBC diffusion tube sites and three diffusion tube sites operated by Medway Council.
Monitoring results are presented in Table 8. The results indicate there were no exceedances of the NO2 annual mean at any of the urban background locations from 2013 to 2017, with monitored concentrations less than half of the objective value. A general decreasing trend is observed from 203 to 2015 at the background sites but concentrations in 2016 increased again to close to 2013 levels. As expected, concentrations at the roadside sites were higher than background concentrations, with exceedances recorded at nine sites in 2016.
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Figure 5: Non-automatic monitoring sites relevant to this assessment
Source: TMBC (2017), Medway District Council (2017)
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Table 8: Diffusion tube monitoring data for NO2 Site name Site ID National Grid reference Annual mean concentration (µg/m3) X Y 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Urban background Offham Road, West Malling TN10 567617 157635 19.4 15.6 14.9 17.3 15.5 Wilson Road, Tonbridge TN18 560263 148509 15.9 12.6 12.2 13.6 14.5 Harrison Road, Borough Green TN95 560830 157004 16.5 15.3 14.8 16.1 14.6 Urban industrial Station Road TN29 571619 158699 31.8 24.9 25.4 28.0 25.2 99 Teapot Lane TN30 572018 158571 35.4 28.3 29.3 29.7 26.7 Roadside/kerbside Hall Rd/A20 junction DF1, DF2, DF3 572459 157904 43.0 45.1 42.6 43.9 44.1 London Rd (front No559) Ditton Bus Stop W-bound DF4, DF5, DF6 571139 158427 33.7 33.8 33.1 33.0 31.9 London Rd (by Wealden Hall) Larkfield Bus Stop W-b DF7, DF8, DF9 570386 158311 36.4 36.5 35.2 41.8 35.0 131 Hall Road, Aylesford TN5a 572611 158545 34.8 37.1 35.5 34.5 34.1 15 Cygnet Close, Larkfield TN7a 570316 158955 26.8 31.4 25.5 24.9 36.7 Tonbridge Rd (Red Hill corner), Wateringbury TN33 569201 153486 61.1 52.7 51.9 56.4 53.6 no 35 (WH Smith), Tonbridge High Street, Tonbridge TN35 558948 146277 43.3 43.2 36.7 34.6 37.5 Tonbridge Road, (opposite garage), Wateringbury TN42, TN76, TN77 569226 153475 67.2 64.8 63.5 64.9 61.3 Tonbridge Road (Red Hill), Wateringbury TN43 569187 153498 39.9 38.2 38.2 39.1 38.7 no 46a, High Street Tonbridge TN44 558929 146271 43.3 42.0 40.1 40.5 38.4 no 10, High Street Tonbridge TN45, TN74, TN75 558864 146166 44.9 42.7 41.6 40.4 42.2 no 516, London Road, Ditton TN47 571399 158375 21.4 19.1 18.8 19.6 19.6 no 527/ 529, London Road, Ditton TN49, TN53, TN54 571237 158377 31.6 32.5 31.7 30.9 31.9 8c, Pump Close, Leybourne TN56 568714 158301 24.4 21.8 21.3 20.1 19.8 743, London Road, Larkfield TN57, TN58, TN59 570467 158328 37.0 36.5 34.0 33.7 32.7 no 290, London Road, Aylesford TN60, TN62, TN63 572423 157932 45.4 45.3 44.1 44.8 44.8 no 606, London Road, Larkfield TN64 570948 158482 32.2 30.6 29.0 31.0 29.4 7 Hall Road, Aylesford TN68 572430 157975 32.4 31.9 30.8 30.8 31.4 55 Sevenoaks Road, Borough Green, Kent TN70, TN72, TN73 560569 157328 42.9 42.2 42.1 45.7 43.0 2 Maidstone Road, Borough Green, Kent TN71 560809 157219 28.2 21.4 20.7 22.3 20.5 44 Sevenoaks Road, Borough Green TN78 560652 157298 31.5 33.0 29.3 29.6 28.7
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Site name Site ID National Grid reference Annual mean concentration (µg/m3) X Y 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Corner Rock Road/ Sevenoaks Rd, Borough Green TN79 560670 157269 31.4 29.3 29.0 31.2 27.6 220 Station Road, Aylesford TN80a 572128 158629 35.6 38.8 35.1 34.4 35.4 346 New Hythe Lane TN81 570563 159463 32.4 33.7 29.7 31.2 28.8 345 New Hythe Lane TN82 570549 159480 No data No data No data 23.0 23.7 Flat 21 High Street, Borough G TN86 560869 157303 27.3 24.6 22.6 25.0 24.5 50 High Street, Borough Green TN87 560921 157337 No data No data No data 30.1 32.8 1 Western Road, Borough Green TN88 560910 157370 27.3 24.9 23.8 26.8 23.5 17 Western Road, Borough Green TN89 560823 157353 No data No data No data 25.8 24.1 54 Western Road, Borough Green TN90 560708 157360 25.4 24.2 22.2 25.7 25.6 74 Sevenoaks Road, Borough Green TN91 560553 157350 19.6 18.4 16.5 18.6 18.2 27 Rock Road, Borough Green TN92 560686 157218 No data No data No data 43.9 43.2 16 Sevenoaks Road, Borough Green TN93 560721 157265 38.8 34.8 34.0 39.8 35.8 33 Maidstone Road, Borough Green TN94 560949 157213 29.9 29.1 28.1 28.5 27.3 1, Bordyke, Tonbridge TN96 559145 146891 39.0 34.9 33.3 34.0 30.5 St Augustines, Quarry Hill, Tonbridge TN97 559199 147204 No data No data No data 36.0 34.3 351 Hermitage Lane TN100 572998 156292 No data 21.5 21.8 22.9 24.4 rear of 1 Whitepost Wood Lane TN101 572821 157030 No data No data 23.1 21.9 No data 39 Whitepost Wood Lane TN102 572768 157186 No data 19.4 19.3 20.0 18.7 22 Hermitage Lane TN103 572739 157532 No data 20.6 20.9 23.9 22.0 1 Whatcote Cottages, Platt TN111, TN112, TN113 562185 157405 No data No data No data 20.5 18.1 Holly Cottage, Maidstone Rd TN114 562264 157447 No data No data No data 26.1 22.3 Lamp post PAS23, Pier Road NAS27 577908 169285 No data No data 37.6 36.5 No data Lamp post PAS12, Pier Road NAS30 578007 169262 No data No data 25.8 33.6 No data Lamp post PAS22, Pier Road NAS31 577880 169319 No data No data 37.6 33.5 No data Source: TMBC Air Quality Annual Status Report 2017 and Medway Air Quality Annual Status Report 2017 All tubes have been bias adjusted. Data capture for all sites and years is >75%
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3.5 Defra Projected Background Concentrations
Defra provides estimates of background pollution concentrations for NOx, NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 across the UK for each one-kilometre grid square for every year from 2015 to 2030. Future year projections have been developed from the base year of the background maps, which is currently 2015. The maps include a breakdown of background concentrations by emission source, including road and industrial sources which have been calibrated against 2015 UK monitoring data. Due to the relatively small modelled network in each grid square, no sector removal has been applied to the Defra concentrations, which presents a conservative approach.
The 2016 background concentrations for the 1km grid squares containing the strategic development sites are presented in Table 9 below. The data shows mapped background concentrations for all pollutants are below the relevant objectives. Defra background concentrations for all receptors in all assessment years are presented in Appendix B.
Table 9: Defra projected background concentrations of NOx, NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 for proposed strategic development sites in 2016 (µg/m3) Strategic 1km grid square locations 2016 development site X Y NOX NO2 PM10 PM2.5 572500 161500 16.52 12.19 20.90 14.31 572500 160500 17.75 13.01 21.76 14.87 A 572500 159500 19.98 14.50 25.97 15.51 573500 161500 17.33 12.74 21.01 14.37 573500 160500 17.77 13.03 22.11 14.81 571500 157500 18.13 13.26 20.95 14.38 572500 157500 20.13 14.58 21.83 14.62 571500 156500 14.75 10.97 19.56 13.58 B 572500 156500 15.37 11.40 21.20 13.97 573500 157500 19.75 14.36 25.40 14.93 573500 156500 15.67 11.60 20.23 13.80 560500 158500 22.55 16.33 22.81 14.81 561500 158500 24.37 17.50 23.22 15.02 562500 158500 25.39 18.15 25.61 15.31 C 560500 157500 17.08 12.59 22.54 14.28 561500 157500 17.13 12.62 21.01 14.02 562500 157500 16.85 12.43 19.50 13.13 568500 156500 15.62 11.59 20.29 14.16 568500 155500 14.69 10.93 19.69 13.63 D 567500 156500 16.01 11.87 19.87 13.67 569500 155500 14.01 10.46 19.14 13.36 569500 156500 14.57 10.85 19.28 13.46 E 557500 145500 13.99 10.49 19.11 13.12 Source: https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/data/laqm-background-maps
3.5.1 Comparison with monitored concentrations The background concentrations for the 1km grid squares containing the background monitoring sites in 2016 have been compared against the corresponding monitored data. This comparison is presented in Appendix B. The data shows good agreement between the CM2 monitored NO2 concentrations and Defra maps, however PM10 concentrations at the CM2 monitor were higher
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than mapped concentrations by a factor of 1.40. Therefore, the annual mean PM10 background concentrations used in the assessment have been uplifted to account for under-prediction compared to monitored background concentrations. In the absence of PM2.5 monitoring data, the same adjustment factor has been applied to both PM10 and PM2.5 Defra background concentrations. No adjustment has been applied to NO2 or NOx backgrounds. The final Defra background mapped concentrations used in the assessment are presented in Appendix B.
3.6 Summary
Monitored concentrations of NO2 and PM10 at background Local Authority monitoring sites are deemed representative of background concentrations at the strategic development sites. These concentrations are well below the respective short and long-term air quality objectives.
A comparison of monitored and mapped concentrations indicates that Defra maps are under- predicting PM10, and an uplift has been applied to the Defra PM10 and PM2.5 baseline concentrations used in this assessment.
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4 Assessment approach
4.1 Overview This section sets out the approach that has been taken for the assessment of impacts on air quality as a result of the proposed strategic development sites.
4.2 Spatial scope of assessment For impacts on air quality arising from traffic emissions, guidance produced by the Highways Agency advises that contributions from vehicle emissions are generally imperceptible above background concentrations farther than 200 metres from the source20. Therefore, for the assessment of road traffic emissions, consideration has only been given to receptors located within 200 metres of roads with potentially significant traffic changes. To determine whether traffic changes are potentially significant or not, the criteria outlined in Institute of Air Quality Management (IAQM) guidance21 (IAQM, 2017) has been used to determine the Affected Road Network (ARN), as follows:
● Within an AQMA, the road alignment will change by 5m or more ● Within an AQMA, daily light duty vehicle (LDV) traffic flows will change by 100 annual average daily traffic (AADT) flow or more and heavy duty vehicle (HDV)22 flows will change by 25 AADT or more ● Outside an AQMA, daily LDV traffic flows will change by 500 AADT or more and HDV flows will change by 100 AADT or more For the purposes of this air quality evidence base assessment, only human health receptors have been included in the model as impacts on ecological receptors within 200m of the modelled road network are considered separately in the Habitat Regulations Assessment: Stage 1 (screening) report produced by Mott MacDonald23. The assessment has primarily focused on those receptors likely to experience the highest concentrations and/or greatest change in concentrations as a result of the proposed development.
It should be noted that, where not already included in the ARN, the modelled road network has been extended to cover the seven AQMAs within Tonbridge and Malling, in order to determine the impact of the strategic development on these sensitive areas. The road network has only been extended to the extent of applicability of the traffic counts provided (ie no assumptions or extrapolations have been made to extend traffic data beyond the ATC road network) in this assessment. The modelled road network has also been extended beyond the ARN to include additional monitoring sites in the model verification process. Appendix C presents maps showing the roads considered in the assessment.
4.3 Assessment years and scenarios A base year of 2016 has been modelled to enable verification of the model against monitored air quality data. Predicted changes in air quality have also been modelled for the end of the plan
20 Highways England (2007). Design Manual for Roads and Bridges. Volume 11, Section 3. HA 207/07. http://www.standardsforhighways.co.uk/ha/standards/dmrb/vol11/section3/ha20707.pdf 21 IAQM (January 2017). ‘Land-Use Planning and Development Control: Planning for Air Quality’. 22 HDVs defined as vehicles with a gross weight greater than 3.5 tonnes 23 Mott MacDonald (2018). Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan, Habitat Regulations Assessment: Stage 1 (Air Quality Screening).
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period (2031). However, as vehicle emissions and background concentrations are expected to reduce in future years due to improved emission performance and uptake of electric vehicles, 2031 may not represent the worst-case assessment year. There is also an element of uncertainty surrounding vehicle emissions. It is therefore considered appropriate to undertake sensitivity tests with regards to vehicle emission factors and background concentrations. To account for the uncertainty, a sensitivity test has been modelled by applying vehicle emission factors and background concentrations from the first anticipated year of opening (2020) to the strategic development in 2031.
Additionally, as the emerging Local Plan would phase in development, 2031 may not represent the worst-case year in terms of air quality. Therefore, an interim year of 2025 has also been assessed.
The future years modelled include a ‘with-development’ (referred to as the ‘Do-Something, DS) and ‘without-development’ (Do-Minimum, DM) scenario to allow the impacts of the proposed strategic development to be determined.
In summary, the following scenarios were modelled:
● Base year, 2016 ● Final year, 2031 DS ● Final year, 2031 DM ● Interim year, 2025 DS ● Interim year, 2025 DM ● Sensitivity test, 2031 (using 2020 emission factors and background concentrations) DS ● Sensitivity test, 2031 (using 2020 emission factors and background concentrations) DM
4.4 Modelling approach
4.4.1 Model selection The assessment uses the latest version of a dispersion model called ‘ADMS24-Roads’ (version 4.1.1, released January 2018); a PC-based model of dispersion in the atmosphere of pollutants released from road traffic sources, produced and validated by Cambridge Environmental Research Consultants (CERC). This model is widely used in the UK, including by Local Authorities for Review and Assessment purposes and to support planning application assessments.
4.4.2 Meteorological data The most important meteorological parameters governing atmospheric dispersion of pollutants are wind direction, wind speed and atmospheric stability as described below:
● Wind direction determines the sector of the compass into which the plume is dispersed ● Wind speed affects the distance which the plume travels over time and can affect plume dispersion by increasing the initial dilution of pollutants and inhibiting plume rise ● Atmospheric stability is a measure of the turbulence of the air, and particularly of its vertical motion. It therefore affects the spread of the plume as it travels away from the source. New generation dispersion models, such as ADMS-roads, use a parameter known as the Monin- Obukhov length that, together with the wind speed, describes the stability of the atmosphere.
24 ADMS (Advanced Dispersion Modelling Software)
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For meteorological data to be suitable for dispersion modelling purposes, a number of meteorological parameters are measured on an hourly basis. These parameters include wind speed, wind direction, cloud cover and temperature.
There are only a limited number of sites where the required meteorological measurements are made in the region around the study area. The closest representative site is Gatwick Airport, approximately 30km west of the closest strategic development site (Upper and Lower Haysden). The modelling has used 3 years of hourly sequential meteorological data from 2015 to 2017. Wind roses for the data are presented in Figure 6.
Figure 6: Gatwick Airport meteorological station windroses C:\Users\aro58132\Mott MacDonald\E&S TMBC HRA LP AQ UK - Do\Develop\Modelling\Model Files\Model Inputs\Met Data\Gatwick_16.met
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230° 130°
220° 140° 210° 150° 200° 160° 190° 180° 170° 0 3 6 10 16 (knots)
Wind speed 0 1.5 3.1 5.1 8.2 (m/s) 4.4.3 Terrain and surface roughness The presence of elevated terrain can affect the dispersion of pollutants by increasing turbulence and, hence, plume mixing which can reduce ground level concentrations. There are no significant terrain features in the study area which have slopes with a gradient of greater than a
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one in ten elevation gain. Therefore, in accordance with the model user manual, terrain data has not been included with the assessment. Local changes in elevation (ie individual roads with steep gradients) have been accounted for in the emission factors used, as described in section 4.4.5).
Roughness of terrain over which a plume passes can have a significant effect on dispersion by altering the velocity profile with height, and the degree of atmospheric turbulence. The modelled area is at present a mixture of agricultural land and small towns, with receptors generally located within small urban residential areas. A surface roughness of 0.5 has been assigned, representative of parkland and open suburbia. The meteorological data site (Gatwick Airport) has also been assigned a surface roughness of 0.5, due to the suburban area to the south west of the site (where the predominant wind direction is from).
4.4.4 Traffic data The prediction of changes in air quality, including the assessment of ‘in combination’ effects of other predicted growth in surrounding districts Local Plans, is reliant on the availability of traffic data. For this assessment, traffic flows in 24 hour annual average daily traffic (AADT) flow format have been provided by Mott MacDonald traffic consultants for:
● 2016 base year ● 2025 interim year, with and without development ● 2031 final plan year, with and without development Traffic flows and speeds are predominantly derived from previous surveys, automatic traffic counts (ATC) and DfT traffic count sites. In some cases, the traffic consultants used professional judgement to make assumptions about the data in order to provide more complete data coverage. Where speed data was not available or not reliable, the speed limits applicable to the road have been used instead. Full details of the traffic dataset are provided in the separate TMBC Local Plan Transport Assessment25.
Traffic data has been provided with a breakdown of LDVs and HDVs, and average speed in kph for each road link included in the study area. Appendix C presents the traffic data used for this assessment.
4.4.5 Emission factors The Emission Factor Toolkit (EFT) (Version 8.0.1), released December 2017, has been used to provide emissions factors for use within the modelling based on road traffic flows, Heavy Duty Vehicles (HDV) percentage and vehicle speeds for each of the links included in the model.
A sensitivity analysis of the emission factors used in the assessment has been undertaken. This sensitivity has assumed that that there is no future improvement in background concentrations from 2020 to 2031. Results from this analysis are presented in Appendix G.
At junctions, speeds have been reduced to 20kph. This is more conservative than the approach suggested in Defra Local Air Quality Management: Technical Guidance (LAQM (TG16)) guidance (Defra, 2016a) which suggests a 10kph reduction for ‘non-busy’ junctions:
“For a busy junction, assume that traffic approaching the junction slows to an average of 20 kilometres per hour. In general, these speeds are relevant for approach distances of approximately 25 metres.
25 Mott MacDonald (2018). Tonbridge and Malling Local Plan, Transport Assessment.
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For other junctions (non-motorway) and roundabouts where some slowing of traffic occurs, you should assume that the speed is 10 kilometres per hour slower than the average free flowing speed’’.
However, a reduction to 20kph across all junctions was considered appropriate given the potential for heavy congestion to occur at junctions within the modelled areas and following model adjustment as part of the verification process which showed the model performed better when assuming slower junction speeds. A 10 kilometre per hour reduction on vehicle speed has been assumed at roundabouts.
Certain roads within the study area also experience significant localised changes in elevation. Gradients can affect air quality by increasing the emission rate of vehicles travelling uphill, reducing emissions from vehicles travelling downhill, and also by altering the distance from the road to nearby receptors. This has been accounted for in the dispersion modelling assessment by using Defra guidance on factoring emissions for gradient changes26, and by adjusting the relative heights of roads and receptors in the model for specific sections of the following roads:
● Redhill, Wateringbury ● A25 Maidstone Road ● A25 Sevenoaks Road (between Western Road and High Street) ● A249 Detling Hill
4.4.6 Canyon effects Dispersion in urban areas can be affected by the presence of obstacles such as buildings or trees that alter local wind flow. The effect on dispersion is often particularly noticeable in areas with buildings on both sides of the road (known as a ‘street canyon’), which can lead to the formation of vortices and recirculation of air flow that can trap pollutants and restrict dispersion. These canyon effects have been accounted for in this assessment by including street canyons for the following areas:
● Borough Green High Street (north of car park entrance) ● Tonbridge High Street ● A26, Wateringbury (east of Redhill)
4.5 Background pollutant concentrations Total air pollutant concentrations comprise of a background and local component. The background concentration is determined by regional, national, and international emissions, and often represents a significant proportion of the total pollutant concentration. The local component is determined by local pollutant sources such as roads, and in this case, has been considered using the ADMS-Roads model.
Background pollutant concentrations are spatially and temporally variable throughout the UK. Annual mean background concentrations maps of NOx, NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 were obtained
26 Defra’s TG16, Chapter 7, Section 3 – Estimating Emissions, contains guidance on incorporating gradient effects into calculated emission rates: “Road gradient can have a significant effect on vehicle emissions. Even hills with slight gradients can increase the power demanded from the vehicle engine, particularly for HDVs. As the power-demand increases, emissions increase. For vehicles going down the hill, the opposite occurs, and emissions decrease. Therefore, calculated vehicle emissions may need to be adjusted…For passenger cars and LDVs, the normal speed-related EFs should be used, taking into account that the average speed on the hill section may differ from that on the flatter sections either side of the hill. However, road gradients can lead to larger and significant changes in emissions generated by HDVs.”
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from Defra, as described in Section 3.5, and have been uplifted to correct for under-predictions as described in Appendix B.
The background maps provide a breakdown of source contributions to the total concentration, allowing particular sources to be removed. Background maps can be adjusted to remove road sources modelled in ADMS-Roads, in order to prevent double counting the contribution of these sources to background concentrations. However, as only a limited number of roads within each grid square have been modelled, no sector removal has been carried out. This is considered a conservative but appropriate approach.
The Defra background concentrations used in the assessment are presented in Table 20, Appendix B.
A sensitivity analysis of the background used in the assessment has been undertaken. This sensitivity has assumed that that there is no future improvement in background concentrations from 2020 to 2031. Results from this analysis are presented in Appendix G.
4.6 NOX to NO2 relationship Research undertaken on behalf of Defra has provided a spreadsheet based method which is 27 available from Defra’s Air Information Resource Website for calculating annual mean NOx to NO2 conversions. Modelled road traffic NOx was converted to NO2 using the latest version (v6.1) of the NOx to NO2 calculator (released October 2017). The calculator takes into account the difference between vehicular and background NOx, the concentration of ozone (O3) (to oxidise NO to NO2), and the different proportions of primary (directly emitted) NO2 in different years.
4.7 Predicted 1 hour and 24 hour pollutant concentrations
For all receptors assessed, annual mean concentrations of NO2 have been presented. 3 According to Defra TG(16) guidance, the hourly NO2 air quality objective of 200µg/m (not to be exceeded more than 18 times per year) is unlikely to be exceeded at roadside locations where the annual mean concentration is less than 60μg/m3.
The prediction of daily mean concentrations of PM10 is available as an output option within the ADMS-Roads dispersion model for comparison against the short-term air quality objective. However, as the model output for annual mean concentrations is considered more accurate than the modelling of the daily mean, an empirical relationship has been used to determine daily mean PM10 concentrations. In accordance with Defra TG(16) guidance, the following formula has been used:
No. of 24-hour mean exceedances = -18.5 + 0.00145 x annual mean3 + (206 / annual mean)
4.8 Addressing uncertainty Dispersion modelling has associated with it an inherent level of uncertainty, primarily as a result of:
● Uncertainties with emissions data ● Uncertainties with traffic data ● Uncertainties with projections of future background concentrations ● Uncertainties with recorded meteorological data
27 https://laqm.defra.gov.uk/review-and-assessment/tools/background-maps.html#NOxNO2calc
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● Simplifications made in the model algorithms or post processing of the data that represent atmospheric dispersion or chemical reactions. The performance of the roads aspect of the air quality model has been evaluated in this assessment using air quality measurements to verify model outputs. The model outputs have then subsequently been adjusted against the measurements to improve the robustness of the predictions. This model verification process has been undertaken in line with Defra guidance and is discussed in Appendix D.
A sensitivity test has been modelled to account for uncertainties in emissions data and future background projections, and is presented in Appendix G.
4.9 Assessment criteria A number of approaches can be used to determine whether the potential air quality effects of a proposed development are significant. However, there remains no universally recognised definition of what constitutes ‘significance’ for air quality effects.
Guidance is available from a range of regulatory authorities and advisory bodies on how best to determine and present the significance of effects within an air quality assessment. It is generally considered good practice that, where possible, an assessment should communicate effects both numerically and descriptively.
The primary focus of this assessment is to determine whether air quality at the proposed strategic sites would be suitable for the introduction of new receptors and whether the strategic development would result in the creation of new AQMAs, or the extension of existing AQMAs. Therefore, results have been compared against the air quality objectives to determine whether concentrations at these key locations will exceed the objectives or not and, if they exceed the objectives, whether the exceedance is new or would be present in the ‘DM’ scenario without development.
In addition, the change in concentrations at existing human health receptors has been described. Any description of an air quality effect is informed by numerical results. However, an element of professional judgement must also be involved. To ensure that the descriptions of effects used within the assessment are clear, consistent and in accordance with recent guidance, definitions for the assessment of changes in ambient air quality at discrete human health receptors have been adapted from the IAQM 2017 guidance ‘Land-Use Planning and Development Control: Planning for Air Quality’.
4.9.1.1 Magnitude of Impact Table 10 provides impact descriptors for individual receptors as a result of the strategic developments. Impact descriptors regarded as moderate or substantial are typically considered likely to give rise to a significant effect, although overall significance of effects must be considered in the context of other factors as described below and should take account of the number of moderate and substantial impacts and their spatial distribution across the overall study area.
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Table 10: Impact descriptors for individual receptors Long term average % Change in concentration relative to Air Quality Assessment concentration at receptor in Level (AQAL) assessment year <1 2-5 6-10 >10 75% or less of AQAL Negligible Negligible Slight Moderate 76-94% of AQAL Negligible Slight Moderate Moderate 95-102% of AQAL Slight Moderate Moderate Substantial 103-109% of AQAL Moderate Moderate Substantial Substantial 110% or more of AQAL Moderate Substantial Substantial Substantial Source: EPUK, IAQM (2017) 3 3 Notes: AQAL = Air Quality Assessment Level ie 40µg/m for annual mean NO2 and PM10 and 25µg/m for annual mean PM2.5. The table is only designed to be used with annual mean concentrations Percentage pollutant concentrations are intended to be rounded to whole numbers. For example, the ‘<1%’ category in this table includes all changes from 0.5% to 1.4% (equivalent to an annual mean NO2 or PM10 absolute concentration change of between 0.2µg/m3 and 0.6µg/m3). Changes of 0% (ie less than 0.5%) are described as negligible. When defining the concentration as a percentage of the AQAL, use the ‘do minimum’ concentrations where there is a decrease in pollutant concentration and the ‘do something’ concentration for an increase.
4.9.1.2 Significance of Effects IAQM (2017) notes that the significant impact descriptors (Table 10) are for individual receptors only and the overall significance should be determined using professional judgement, taking into account the degree of impact and factors such as:
● The existing and future air quality in the absence of the proposed development ● The extent of current and future population exposure to the impacts ● The influence and validity of any assumptions adopted when undertaking the prediction of impacts
4.9.1.3 Compliance with the EU Directive on Ambient Air Quality Highways England’s Interim Advice Note (IAN) 175/13 provides guidance in relation to the assessment of the risk of proposed developments affecting reported compliance with the air quality Directive. The compliance risk assessment is undertaken using model results obtained from the local air quality assessment. To undertake a compliance risk assessment the following information is required:
● Local air quality modelled results ● Defra's Pollution Climate Mapping (PCM) model outputs for the compliance road network ● Defra's zones and agglomeration maps Defra uses the PCM model to report compliance with the air quality Directive. The PCM model provides NO2 concentrations for a number of roads across the UK for a number of future years. The latest PCM model data, released by Defra in 2017, has modelled concentrations incorporating the Defra action plan measures for 2015 (reference year), with projected concentrations decreasing year on year up to 2030 in response to anticipated improvements in vehicle emissions.
Consideration has been given to PCM modelled roads within the TMBC Local Plan study area, to identify if concentrations at any of the PCM links are at risk of exceeding the annual mean NO2 objective when considered in combination with the proposed strategic development.
None of the PCM modelled roads within the TMBC Local Plan study area are predicted to have annual mean NO2 concentrations greater than the EU Limit Value in the base year (2015), and
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concentrations are predicted to be well below the Limit Value by 2030. Therefore, the TMBC Local Plan is not considered at risk of affecting Defra’s compliance reporting and the PCM model links are not considered further in this assessment.
4.10 Receptors As noted in section 4.2, pollutant concentrations have been predicted at sensitive receptors, defined according to Defra as:
‘Locations where members of the public are likely to be regularly present and are likely to be exposed for a period of time appropriate to the averaging period of the relevant air quality objective’.
Sensitive receptors such as residential properties, hospitals, and schools were identified within 200m of the affected roads in the study area. A total of 51 human health receptors have been considered in the local air quality assessment, and these are shown in Figure 11 and Table 27, Appendix E. Receptors were selected using professional judgement to determine where the highest pollutant concentrations would be likely to arise and where the greatest effects would be expected to occur due to the strategic development.
Table 11 presents a selection of receptors that best illustrate the key findings of the air quality assessment.
Table 11: Selection of modelled human health receptors ID Receptor name National grid Height Type reference (m) X Y 42 Bushey Wood 572771.9 160187.8 1.5 Strategic site A 39 West of Hermitage Lane 572743.8 157506.0 1.5 Strategic site B 44 East Malling Research Station 572827.0 157011.6 1.5 46 Barming Depot, Hermitage Lane 572853.5 156962.1 1.5 48 Whitepost Field (2), Hermitage Lane 572999.8 157699.5 1.5 25 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1A 561197.0 157991.0 1.5 Strategic site C 26 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1B 561909.0 158251.4 1.5 27 North of Kings Hill 568044.3 156552.5 1.5 Strategic site D 5 Upper and Lower Haysden (2), south 557454.7 145152.8 1.5 Strategic site E west Tonbridge 14 27A High Street Tonbridge 558937.0 146256.6 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge High Street AQMA) 21 2 Maidstone Road Borough Green 560809.2 157225.6 1.5 Existing (Borough Green AQMA) 29 186E Tonbridge Road Wateringbury 569195.5 153490.5 1.5 Existing (Wateringbury AQMA) 30 Flat 1 789 London Road Larkfield 570288.0 158311.4 1.5 Existing (Larkfield AQMA) Aylesford 34 2 New Road Ditton 571246.7 158374.2 1.5 Existing (Ditton AQMA) 36 170 Station Road 571960.7 158661.9 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 47 156 London Road Aylesford 572985.4 157724.4 1.5 Existing (Aylesford AQMA) 53 The Orchards Maidstone 573712.8 157364.2 1.5 Existing (Maidstone Town AQMA) 11 Tonbridge House 36 Quarry Hill 558670.6 145800.9 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) Road Tonbridge 24 Wrotham School 1 561098.5 158376.8 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 49 10 East Park Road Aylesford 573237.2 158004.1 1.5 Existing (non AQMA)
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ID Receptor name National grid Height Type reference (m) X Y 54 Morningside 33 Old Chatham Road 574842.3 160733.1 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) Aylesford 45 198 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 572848.3 160603.2 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) Source: Mott MacDonald
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5 Air quality impacts of new development
5.1 Overview This Section presents the potential impacts predicted to occur as a result of the proposed strategic development within Tonbridge and Malling. It should be noted that the assessment is based on an iteration of the development strategy in the Local Plan that was drafted and available at the time the evidence was prepared. Impacts have been predicted at the receptors identified within section 4.10 for an interim year (2025) and the final Local Plan year (2031). The following subsections present and discuss the results for each of these future years.
5.2 Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations
5.2.1 Interim year, 2025
Concentrations of NO2 at selected ‘worst case’ receptors are presented within Table 12 for the interim year, 2025.
Table 12: Selected receptor results: Annual mean NO2, 2025
Receptor Total NO2 Change Impact Exceedance (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO DS? DM DS
Strategic sites (A to E) 42 A: Bushey Wood 13.76 No exceedance 39 B: West of Hermitage Lane 20.04 No exceedance 44 B: East Malling Research Station 18.18 No exceedance 46 B: Barming Depot, Hermitage Lane 20.70 No exceedance 48 B: Whitepost Field (2), Hermitage Lane 23.34 No exceedance 25 C: Borough Green Gardens Phase 1A 12.37 No exceedance 26 C: Borough Green Gardens Phase 1B 19.11 No exceedance 27 D: North of Kings Hill 11.12 No exceedance 5 E: Upper and Lower Haysden (2), south 17.80 No exceedance west Tonbridge Existing AQMAs 14 27A High Street Tonbridge (Tonbridge 22.81 23.94 2.8% Negligible No exceedance High Street AQMA) 21 2 Maidstone Road Borough Green 22.55 24.10 3.9% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks (Borough Green AQMA) 29 186E Tonbridge Road Wateringbury 40.46 41.26 2.0% Moderate Existing (Wateringbury AQMA) adverse exceedance 30 Flat 1 789 London Road Larkfield 22.55 23.16 1.5% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford (Larkfield AQMA) 34 2 New Road Ditton (Ditton AQMA) 22.99 23.32 0.8% Negligible No exceedance 36 170 Station Road (M20 AQMA) 34.64 34.94 0.7% Negligible No exceedance 47 156 London Road Aylesford (Aylesford 22.01 24.69 6.7% Slight adverse No exceedance AQMA) 53 The Orchards Maidstone (Maidstone Town 18.22 18.40 0.4% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) Existing (outside AQMAs) 11 Tonbridge House 36 Quarry Hill Road 17.60 18.33 1.8% Negligible No exceedance
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Receptor Total NO2 Change Impact Exceedance (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO DS? DM DS 24 Wrotham School 1 14.60 14.71 0.3% Negligible No exceedance 49 10 East Park Road Aylesford 25.29 26.23 2.4% Negligible No exceedance 54 Morningside 33 Old Chatham Road 23.86 24.43 1.4% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford 45 198 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 12.43 12.82 1.0% Negligible No exceedance Notes: (a) Results are presented to two decimal places to indicate the magnitude of change and are not representative of model accuracy b) No ‘DM’ results, % change or IAQM impact description for future receptors as there is no relevant exposure at these sites in the Do-Minimum scenario (c) AQO: air quality objective, as defined in Section 2.2.4. Exceedances of the objective are presented in bold Source: Mott MacDonald
The concentration at receptor 29 in the Wateringbury AQMA is predicted to be greater than the annual mean NO2 objective in both the DM and DS scenarios. In accordance with the IAQM significance criteria adopted for this assessment (see section 4.9), this impact is considered ‘moderate adverse’. A ‘slight adverse’ impact is predicted at receptor 47 in the Aylesford AQMA, reflecting its proximity to the A20 (which is expected to experience substantial increases in traffic in future years – refer to links 5 and 7 in the traffic data in Appendix C), although concentrations here are predicted to remain well below the objective in both the DM and DS scenarios.
The annual mean NO2 objective is not exceeded at the boundaries of the strategic sites, indicating that these sites are suitable for the introduction of new receptors. Concentrations at all other receptors are predicted to be well below the annual mean NO2 objective, with changes in concentrations at the remaining existing receptors described as ‘negligible’.
As no new exceedances are predicted in the DS 2025 scenario, and the majority of the existing receptors (38 of the 40 modelled) are predicted to have ‘negligible’ impacts, the overall the overall annual mean NO2 impacts are considered not significant.
3 As NO2 annual mean concentrations are not predicted to exceed 60μg/m , the short-term objective is also not likely to be exceeded at any of the modelled receptor locations.
5.2.2 Future Local Plan year, 2031
Concentrations of NO2 at selected ‘worst case’ receptors are presented within Table 12 for the Local Plan year, 2031.
Table 13: Selected receptor results: Annual mean NO2, 2031
Receptor Total NO2 Change Impact Exceedance (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO DS? DM DS
Strategic sites (A to E) 42 A: Bushey Wood 11.98 No exceedance 39 B: West of Hermitage Lane 16.65 No exceedance 44 B: East Malling Research Station 15.22 No exceedance 46 B: Barming Depot, Hermitage Lane 16.97 No exceedance 48 B: Whitepost Field (2), Hermitage Lane 20.30 No exceedance 25 C: Borough Green Gardens Phase 1A 11.54 No exceedance 26 C: Borough Green Gardens Phase 1B 15.44 No exceedance
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Receptor Total NO2 Change Impact Exceedance (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO DS? DM DS 27 D: North of Kings Hill 9.42 No exceedance 5 E: Upper and Lower Haysden (2), south 13.89 No exceedance west Tonbridge Existing AQMAs 14 27A High Street Tonbridge (Tonbridge 17.51 19.25 4.4% Negligible No exceedance High Street AQMA) 21 2 Maidstone Road Borough Green 17.32 13.06 -10.7% Moderate No exceedance Sevenoaks (Borough Green AQMA) beneficial 29 186E Tonbridge Road Wateringbury 30.07 31.35 3.2% Slight adverse No exceedance (Wateringbury AQMA) 30 Flat 1 789 London Road Larkfield 17.80 18.73 2.3% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford (Larkfield AQMA) 34 2 New Road Ditton (Ditton AQMA) 18.97 19.49 1.3% Negligible No exceedance 36 170 Station Road (M20 AQMA) 27.40 27.87 1.2% Negligible No exceedance 47 156 London Road Aylesford (Aylesford 17.41 21.46 10.1% Moderate No exceedance AQMA) adverse 53 The Orchards Maidstone (Maidstone Town 14.60 14.86 0.6% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) Existing (outside AQMAs) 11 Tonbridge House 36 Quarry Hill Road 13.88 14.96 2.7% Negligible No exceedance 24 Wrotham School 1 11.87 11.96 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 49 10 East Park Road Aylesford 20.11 21.52 3.5% Negligible No exceedance 54 Morningside 33 Old Chatham Road No exceedance 18.58 19.47 2.2% Aylesford Negligible 45 198 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 10.64 11.21 1.4% Negligible No exceedance Notes: (a) Results are presented to two decimal places to indicate the magnitude of change and are not representative of model accuracy b) No ‘DM’ results, % change or IAQM impact description for future receptors as there is no relevant exposure at these sites in the Do-Minimum scenario (c) AQO: air quality objective, as defined in Section 2.2.4. Exceedances of the objective are presented in bold Source: Mott MacDonald
A ‘moderate adverse’ impact is predicted at receptor 47 in the Aylesford AQMA, reflecting its proximity to the A20 (which is expected to experience substantial increases in traffic in future years – refer to links 5 and 7 in the traffic data in Appendix C), although concentrations here are predicted to remain well below the objective in both the DM and DS scenarios. A ‘moderate beneficial’ impact is predicted at receptor 21 in the Borough Green AQMA, due to the diversion of traffic from roads in the AQMA to the new relief road. Receptor 29 in the Wateringbury AQMA is predicted to have ‘slight adverse’ impacts. Concentrations at all receptors are predicted to be well below the annual mean NO2 objective, with changes in concentrations at the remaining existing receptors described as ‘negligible’.
The annual mean NO2 objective is not exceeded at the boundaries of the strategic sites, indicating that these sites are suitable for the introduction of new receptors.
As no exceedances are predicted in the 2031 scenario, and the majority of the existing receptors (33 of the 40 modelled) are predicted to have ‘negligible’ impacts, the overall annual mean NO2 impacts are considered not significant.
3 As NO2 annual mean concentrations are not predicted to exceed 60μg/m , the short-term objective is also not likely to be exceeded at any of the modelled receptor locations.
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5.3 Particulate Matter (PM10) Concentrations
Modelled annual mean concentrations of PM10 are well below the relevant objectives in 2025 and 2031 as shown in Table 14 and Table 15 respectively. Changes in concentrations are considered to be ‘negligible’ at all modelled existing receptors and therefore overall impacts are considered not significant.
Table 14: Selected receptor results: Annual mean PM10, 2025
Receptor Total PM10 Change Impact Exceedance (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO DS? DM DS
Strategic sites (A to E) 42 A: Bushey Wood 21.92 No exceedance 39 B: West of Hermitage Lane 23.91 No exceedance 44 B: East Malling Research Station 23.36 No exceedance 46 B: Barming Depot, Hermitage Lane 24.70 No exceedance 48 B: Whitepost Field (2), Hermitage Lane 25.04 No exceedance 25 C: Borough Green Gardens Phase 1A 20.85 No exceedance 26 C: Borough Green Gardens Phase 1B 23.12 No exceedance 27 D: North of Kings Hill 20.11 No exceedance 5 E: Upper and Lower Haysden (2), south No exceedance 20.92 west Tonbridge Existing AQMAs 14 27A High Street Tonbridge (Tonbridge 23.01 23.30 0.7% Negligible No exceedance High Street AQMA) 21 2 Maidstone Road Borough Green 25.46 25.92 1.1% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks (Borough Green AQMA) 29 186E Tonbridge Road Wateringbury 27.54 27.79 0.6% Negligible No exceedance (Wateringbury AQMA) 30 Flat 1 789 London Road Larkfield 26.76 26.93 0.4% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford (Larkfield AQMA) 34 2 New Road Ditton (Ditton AQMA) 26.11 26.21 0.3% Negligible No exceedance 36 170 Station Road (M20 AQMA) 26.95 26.99 0.1% Negligible No exceedance 47 156 London Road Aylesford (Aylesford 24.59 25.56 2.4% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 53 The Orchards Maidstone (Maidstone Town 27.67 27.72 0.1% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) Existing (outside AQMAs) 11 Tonbridge House 36 Quarry Hill Road 22.85 23.06 0.5% Negligible No exceedance 24 Wrotham School 1 22.67 22.69 0.1% Negligible No exceedance 49 10 East Park Road Aylesford 26.46 26.73 0.7% Negligible No exceedance 54 Morningside 33 Old Chatham Road Negligible No exceedance 25.10 25.26 0.4% Aylesford 45 198 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 21.56 21.68 0.3% Negligible No exceedance Notes: (a) Results are presented to two decimal places to indicate the magnitude of change and are not representative of model accuracy b) No ‘DM’ results, % change or IAQM impact description for future receptors as there is no relevant exposure at these sites in the Do-Minimum scenario (c) AQO: air quality objective, as defined in Section 2.2.4. Exceedances of the objective are presented in bold Source: Mott MacDonald
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Table 15: Selected receptor results: Annual mean PM10, 2031
Receptor Total PM10 Change Impact Exceedance (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO DS? DM DS
Strategic sites (A to E) 42 A: Bushey Wood 22.02 No exceedance 39 B: West of Hermitage Lane 24.13 No exceedance 44 B: East Malling Research Station 23.52 No exceedance 46 B: Barming Depot, Hermitage Lane 25.10 No exceedance 48 B: Whitepost Field (2), Hermitage Lane 25.97 No exceedance 25 C: Borough Green Gardens Phase 1A 21.14 No exceedance 26 C: Borough Green Gardens Phase 1B 23.19 No exceedance 27 D: North of Kings Hill 19.98 No exceedance 5 E: Upper and Lower Haysden (2), south No exceedance 20.88 west Tonbridge Existing AQMAs 14 27A High Street Tonbridge (Tonbridge 22.92 23.57 1.6% Negligible No exceedance High Street AQMA) 21 2 Maidstone Road Borough Green 25.50 23.81 -4.2% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks (Borough Green AQMA) 29 186E Tonbridge Road Wateringbury 27.45 28.01 1.4% Negligible No exceedance (Wateringbury AQMA) 30 Flat 1 789 London Road Larkfield 26.68 27.07 1.0% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford (Larkfield AQMA) 34 2 New Road Ditton (Ditton AQMA) 26.07 26.31 0.6% Negligible No exceedance 36 170 Station Road (M20 AQMA) 26.90 26.99 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 47 156 London Road Aylesford (Aylesford 24.52 26.66 5.3% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 53 The Orchards Maidstone (Maidstone Town 27.94 28.06 0.3% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) Existing (outside AQMAs) 11 Tonbridge House 36 Quarry Hill Road 22.73 23.19 1.1% Negligible No exceedance 24 Wrotham School 1 22.60 22.61 0.0% Negligible No exceedance 49 10 East Park Road Aylesford 26.44 27.03 1.5% Negligible No exceedance 54 Morningside 33 Old Chatham Road 24.98 25.34 0.9% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford 45 198 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 21.48 21.73 0.6% Negligible No exceedance Notes: (a) Results are presented to two decimal places to indicate the magnitude of change and are not representative of model accuracy b) No ‘DM’ results, % change or IAQM impact description for future receptors as there is no relevant exposure at these sites in the Do-Minimum scenario (c) AQO: air quality objective, as defined in Section 2.2.4. Exceedances of the objective are presented in bold Source: Mott MacDonald
3 The predicted number of days when PM10 concentrations are above 50μg/m is well below 35 days at all modelled receptors in both 2025 and 2031. The maximum in 2025 is 22 days and in 2031 is 24 days, both predicted at receptor 52 (an existing human health receptor, Whitepost Field 3). However, the change between the DM and DS at this receptor is just 0.2 of a day in 2025 and 0.5 of a day in 2031. Refer to Table 32 and Table 33 in Appendix F for daily PM10 results.
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5.4 Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Concentrations
Modelled annual mean concentrations of PM2.5 are well below the relevant objectives in 2025 and 2031 as shown in Table 14 and Table 17 respectively. Changes in concentrations are considered to be ‘negligible’ at all modelled existing receptors and therefore overall impacts are considered not significant.
Table 16: Selected receptor results: Annual mean PM2.5, 2025
Receptor Total PM2.5 Change Impact Exceedance (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO DS? DM DS
Strategic sites (A to E) 42 A: Bushey Wood 14.51 No exceedance 39 B: West of Hermitage Lane 15.32 No exceedance 44 B: East Malling Research Station 15.01 No exceedance 46 B: Barming Depot, Hermitage Lane 15.42 No exceedance 48 B: Whitepost Field (2), Hermitage Lane 15.94 No exceedance 25 C: Borough Green Gardens Phase 1A 13.52 No exceedance 26 C: Borough Green Gardens Phase 1B 14.56 No exceedance 27 D: North of Kings Hill 13.71 No exceedance 5 E: Upper and Lower Haysden (2), south No exceedance 13.78 west Tonbridge Existing AQMAs 14 27A High Street Tonbridge (Tonbridge 15.68 15.84 0.6% Negligible No exceedance High Street AQMA) 21 2 Maidstone Road Borough Green 15.40 15.65 1.0% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks (Borough Green AQMA) 29 186E Tonbridge Road Wateringbury 17.61 17.75 0.6% Negligible No exceedance (Wateringbury AQMA) 30 Flat 1 789 London Road Larkfield 17.43 17.53 0.4% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford (Larkfield AQMA) 34 2 New Road Ditton (Ditton AQMA) 16.85 16.90 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 36 170 Station Road (M20 AQMA) 17.46 17.49 0.1% Negligible No exceedance 47 156 London Road Aylesford (Aylesford 15.69 16.22 2.1% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 53 The Orchards Maidstone (Maidstone Town 15.46 15.49 0.1% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) Existing (outside AQMAs) 11 Tonbridge House 36 Quarry Hill Road 15.39 15.51 0.5% Negligible No exceedance 24 Wrotham School 1 14.27 14.29 0.1% Negligible No exceedance 49 10 East Park Road Aylesford 16.49 16.65 0.6% Negligible No exceedance 54 Morningside 33 Old Chatham Road 16.07 16.16 0.4% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford 45 198 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 14.31 14.38 0.3% Negligible No exceedance Notes: (a) Results are presented to two decimal places to indicate the magnitude of change and are not representative of model accuracy b) No ‘DM’ results, % change or IAQM impact description for future receptors as there is no relevant exposure at these sites in the Do-Minimum scenario (c) AQO: air quality objective, as defined in Section 2.2.4. Exceedances of the objective are presented in bold Source: Mott MacDonald
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Table 17: Selected receptor results: Annual mean PM2.5, 2031
Receptor Total PM2.5 Change Impact Exceedance (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO DS? DM DS
Strategic sites (A to E) 42 A: Bushey Wood 14.44 No exceedance 39 B: West of Hermitage Lane 15.32 No exceedance 44 B: East Malling Research Station 14.98 No exceedance 46 B: Barming Depot, Hermitage Lane 15.50 No exceedance 48 B: Whitepost Field (2), Hermitage Lane 16.32 No exceedance 25 C: Borough Green Gardens Phase 1A 13.56 No exceedance 26 C: Borough Green Gardens Phase 1B 14.49 No exceedance 27 D: North of Kings Hill 13.56 No exceedance 5 E: Upper and Lower Haysden (2), south No exceedance 13.67 west Tonbridge Existing AQMAs 14 27A High Street Tonbridge (Tonbridge 15.54 15.89 1.4% Negligible No exceedance High Street AQMA) 21 2 Maidstone Road Borough Green 15.26 14.33 -3.7% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks (Borough Green AQMA) 29 186E Tonbridge Road Wateringbury 17.44 17.75 1.2% Negligible No exceedance (Wateringbury AQMA) 30 Flat 1 789 London Road Larkfield 17.28 17.49 0.8% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford (Larkfield AQMA) 34 2 New Road Ditton (Ditton AQMA) 16.71 16.84 0.5% Negligible No exceedance 36 170 Station Road (M20 AQMA) 17.31 17.37 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 47 156 London Road Aylesford (Aylesford 15.53 16.69 4.6% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 53 The Orchards Maidstone (Maidstone Town 15.34 15.40 0.3% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) Existing (outside AQMAs) 11 Tonbridge House 36 Quarry Hill Road 15.24 15.49 1.0% Negligible No exceedance 24 Wrotham School 1 14.13 14.14 0.0% Negligible No exceedance 49 10 East Park Road Aylesford 16.35 16.67 1.3% Negligible No exceedance 54 Morningside 33 Old Chatham Road 15.89 16.08 0.8% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford 45 198 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 14.14 14.28 0.5% Negligible No exceedance Notes: (a) Results are presented to two decimal places to indicate the magnitude of change and are not representative of model accuracy b) No ‘DM’ results, % change or IAQM impact description for future receptors as there is no relevant exposure at these sites in the Do-Minimum scenario (c) AQO: air quality objective, as defined in Section 2.2.4. Exceedances of the objective are presented in bold Source: Mott MacDonald
5.5 Sensitivity analysis Sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the sensitivity of modelled results to assumptions regarding future emission factors baseline air quality. The sensitivity analysis assumed that neither emission factors nor background concentrations improve in future years, as is assumed in Defra’s local air quality management toolkit. Full details of the sensitivity analysis, including modelled results, are presented in Appendix G.
The results for the sensitivity analysis indicate that with highly conservative assumptions, the strategic development could result in a risk of exceedance of the short term NO2 objective at
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one receptor. Exceedances of the annual mean NO2 objective are predicted at receptors in two existing AQMAs, but the exceedances would also be present without the strategic development and therefore no new AQMAs would be created/extended. Concentrations at the proposed strategic sites are predicted to be below the NO2 objectives, and overall the impacts are not considered to be significant. No exceedances of PM10 or PM2.5 objectives are predicted.
5.6 Summary
The results from the assessment show that the strategic development and committed future development will not result in exceedances at any of the proposed strategic development sites, indicating that these areas are suitable for the introduction of new receptors. No new exceedances of the objectives are predicted, suggesting that no new AQMAs would need to be created nor would any existing AQMAs need to be extended.
Impacts at existing human health receptors are predicted to be negligible at the majority of modelled receptors. In both 2025 and 2031, one receptor is predicted to have a moderate adverse impact, however when considered in combination with the impacts at other receptors, this impact is not considered to be significant. The Borough Green relief road is predicted to have moderate beneficial impacts at receptors in the Borough Green AQMA by 2031.
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6 Options for minimising air quality impacts from new development
6.1 Overview The air quality assessment has shown that the proposed strategic development would not result in a significant deterioration of air quality at the proposed strategic sites, or within existing AQMAs. Nevertheless, TMBC are still required to consider options for minimising the impacts of strategic development in order to improve air quality. This section explores some potential options available.
6.2 Incorporated mitigation The Borough Green and Platt relief road has been included in the air quality assessment, through inclusion in the traffic data provided for future ‘with development’ scenarios. This relief road is expected to reduce traffic flows through the centre of Borough Green (eg Borough Green High Street, which would otherwise experience an increase in traffic of around 4,000 AADT between the without and with development scenarios in 2031), as well as relieving traffic on the A25 through Platt and southern areas of Borough Green. The Borough Green relief road is therefore an important measure to improve air quality in Borough Green and Platt.
6.3 Generic good practice mitigation measures This section outlines generic good practice mitigation measures that should be considered for all strategic development within the TMBC Local Plan.
Modal shift options, such as increasing walking, cycling and the use of rail and bus services, and reducing private car use, are to be considered as a priority. TMBC are encouraged to develop sustainable transport plans for the strategic development sites as early as practicable to support this model shift. These plans will need to take account of existing public transport options in the area and identify potential improvements such as additional cycling routes, more frequent and/or more direct bus services to connect with railways or commercial centres, low emission bus services and contributions to electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure. It is recommended that TMBC require major development to maximise opportunities for incorporating EV charging points into new residential housing areas, and explore options for the introduction of commercial ‘car clubs’ with low emission car sharing and bike hiring schemes.
Other options to consider for residential development include28:
● A Welcome Pack available to all new residents containing information and incentives to encourage the use of sustainable transport modes ● Eco-driver training and provision of eco-driver aid to all residents ● Designation of parking spaces for low emission vehicles ● Improved cycle paths to link cycle network ● Adequate provision of secure cycle storage
28 Adapted from Kent & Medway Air Quality Partnership (December 2015). Air Quality Planning Guidance (Mitigation Option A). http://kentair.org.uk/documents/K&MAQP_Air_Quality_Planning_Guidance_Mitigation_Option_A.pdf
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Commercial developments should also consider:
● Differential parking charges depending on vehicle emissions ● Public transport subsidy for employees ● Use of ultra-low emission service vehicles ● Support local walking and cycling initiatives ● On-street EV recharging
6.4 Site specific mitigation
6.4.1 Junction improvements The Transport Assessment prepared by Mott MacDonald for the TMBC Local Plan outlines various junction improvements at the following assessed junctions:
● Assessment Junction 6: Malling Road (N&S), Gibson Drive ● Assessment Junction 8: Tonbridge Road A26, Seven Mile Lane N B2016 (N), Seven Mile Lane A228 (S), A26 bound for Hadlow ● Assessment Junction 12: Shipbourne Road (N&S), Yardley Park Road, Dry Hill Park Road ● Assessment Junction 14: Hadlow Road A26 (N&S), The Ridgeway ● Assessment Junction 15: Hadlow Road A227, Cannon Lane A26, Hadlow Road A26 ● Assessment Junction 16: High Street A227, High Street B2260, Bordyke A227, Lansdowne Road ● Assessment Junction 19: High Street B2260, Railway Approach B2260, Vale Road, Barden Road ● Assessment Junction 21: Quarry Hill Road A26 (N&S), Brook Street These improvements include realignment of lanes, addition/alteration of roundabouts and conversion to signalised T junctions. Whilst the effectiveness of these mitigation measures would require modelling to confirm, if they were to result in reduced congestion and reduced queuing traffic, then it is considered likely that improvements in air quality around these junctions would also occur.
6.4.2 Alternative routing options to reduce traffic flows Areas experiencing substantial increases in traffic and associated worsening of air quality due to the strategic development include the A20 in Allington, Hermitage Lane, A229, M20 and Tonbridge High Street. Potential options for each of these specific areas are explored in turn in the following subsections.
6.4.2.1 A20 in Allington and Hermitage Lane This area connects four strategic development sites (East Malling Research Station, West of Hermitage Lane, Barming Depot, and Whitepost Field) to the M20 motorway, and is predicted to experience an increase in AADT of approximately 18,000 vehicles in the ‘with development’ scenario by 2031. The location of Barming rail station on Hermitage Lane, to the south of the strategic development sites as shown in Figure 7, suggests that encouraging a modal shift from private car to rail use may be the most effective means of reducing vehicle travel north, via the A20 to the M20.
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Figure 7: Transport options and development traffic near Hermitage Lane
Source: Mott MacDonald, TMBC (2017)
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To encourage this modal shift, rail services may require improvement in terms of the frequency of services, and connection with ongoing travel options to/from major residential and commercial centres. The provision of adequate pedestrian and cycling routes connecting the strategic sites to the rail station must be prioritised, in addition to improved connecting bus services for longer distances to/from the rail station.
6.4.2.2 Tonbridge High Street Transport modelling indicates that the strategic development at Upper and Lower Haysden in south west Tonbridge would result in approximately an additional 4,000 AADT travelling through Tonbridge High Street. This road is already considered to be a busy road suffering from congestion with several loading bays and bus stops that prevent traffic from flowing freely. It is also a street canyon, which means it has worse air quality than similar open streets. Air quality for receptors along this road could be improved if the traffic flows were reduced. One option, given the central location of Tonbridge rail station, is to introduce measures to increase the use of public transport. Alternatively, traffic could be directed along the A2014 (Pembury Road) and A26 (Woodgate Way) instead of using the High Street for access to the north of the Borough. However, implementation of this would likely require restriction on private car access to the High Street (eg restricting access to buses, cycles only) which may have associated economic impacts on the businesses located within the High Street and could increase community complaints due to access restrictions.
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7 Conclusions
The air quality assessment has demonstrated that none of the strategic sites are predicted to exceed the relevant air quality objectives in any scenario, indicating that the sites are suitable for the introduction of new receptors.
Future improvements in air quality (ie assumed reductions in vehicle emissions and reduced background concentrations in 2025 and 2031 compared to current levels) are the main factor that determines whether the objectives will still be exceeded in future years or not. Some receptors in existing AQMAs would continue to exceed the NO2 objectives in 2025 but by 2031, even with additional growth, no exceedances are predicted. However, if conservatively assuming no improvements in emissions from 2020 onwards, some of the receptors in existing AQMAs would continue to exceed the objective in 2031. It is important to note that these exceedances are predicted to occur regardless of whether the development goes ahead or not (ie in both the without- and with-development scenarios).
Receptors close to the largest increases in traffic have relatively low baseline concentrations, and the impacts of the development are not predicted to cause exceedances at these locations in any scenario. The strategic development would therefore not result in the creation of new AQMAs, or the expansion of any existing AQMAs.
The proposed Borough Green Relief Road is predicted to have a beneficial impact on air quality in the existing Borough Green AQMA.
Options for mitigation to reduce the predicted traffic impacts and thus improve air quality across the study area have been suggested. These options include modal shift and junction improvements, as well as sustainable transport plans, provision of electric vehicle charging points, and some specific recommendations to target particularly heavily trafficked areas.
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Appendices
A. Local Plan strategy phasing 47 B. Defra background concentrations 49 C. Traffic data 53 D. Model verification 64 E. Receptors 71 F. Detailed modelled results 80 G. Sensitivity analysis 101
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A. Local Plan strategy phasing
A.1 Overview Table 18 in this appendix presents the proposed number of properties to be developed in each of the nine development plots that make up the five strategic development sites, and illustrates how the development will be phased from 2019 onwards. Please note: This is based on an iteration of the development strategy that was available at the time the evidence was prepared.
Education requirements for the five strategic sites have been provided by TMBC as follows:
● A - Bushey Wood: 1 x 2FE Primary School ● B - South Aylesford (Hermitage Lane): 2 x 3FE Primary School ● C - Borough Green Gardens (Phase 1A + 1B): 1 x 2FE Primary School, 1 x 3FE Primary School ● D - North of Kings Hill: 1 x 2FE Primary School + 1 x 6FE Secondary School ● E - South Tonbridge: 1 x 2FE Primary School The traffic data used in this air quality assessment was calculated on the basis of this assumed development phasing strategy.
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Table 18: Development sites – proposed numbers and phasing Strategic Plot name Plot Number of properties to be developed, per year site ref 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 30/31 Total up Post to 2031 2031 A Bushey Wood, 15 0 0 0 0 0 75 150 150 150 150 150 825 172 Eccles B Barming Depot, 8 40 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 79 0 Hermitage Lane B West of Hermitage 13 40 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 58 0 Lane B Whitepost Field, 27 40 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 840 10 Aylesford B East Malling 5 0 0 0 75 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 1,125 175 Research Station C Borough Green 33 0 0 0 75 150 150 150 150 150 150 25 1,000 0 Gardens Phase 1A C Borough Green 11 0 0 0 0 75 150 150 150 150 150 150 975 275 Gardens Phase 1B D North of Kings Hill 23 0 0 0 75 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 1,125 398 E Upper & Lower 26 40 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 88 0 0 688 0 Haysden, Tonbridge Source: TMBC (2017)
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B. Defra background concentrations
B.1 Overview As noted in Section 3.5.1, Defra projected background concentrations have been compared against monitored data from the background automatic monitoring site within the study area. Table 19 presents the 2016 monitored data from this site alongside the Defra background concentration for that grid square. The ratio of the monitored and Defra background data at the site was averaged to obtain an overall factor of 1.40 for PM10. The same factor has also been applied to PM2.5. The NO2 comparison indicates good agreement between the monitored and Defra modelled background concentrations and therefore no scaling has been applied to NOx or NO2 backgrounds.
Table 19: Defra projected background concentrations for NO2 and PM10 at background monitoring sites in 2016 (µg/m3) Background site 1km grid square Pollutant 2016 concentration (µg/m3) Scaling factor X Y Monitored Mapped
CM2 580500 159500 PM10 20 14.2 1.40
PM10 factor 1.40
CM2 580500 159500 NO2 12 12.2 0.98
NO2 factor None Source: https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/data/laqm-background-maps
B.2 Defra projected background concentrations Table 20 presents the Defra background concentrations used within the assessment. Defra maps have been obtained for the opening year (2020), an interim year (2025) and the end of the Local Plan period (2031 – using data from the latest available Defra year of 2030). Concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 have been uplifted using the factor described in Section B.1 above.
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Table 20: Defra projected background concentrations for modelled human health receptors in all future assessment years (µg/m3) ID Name 1km grid square 2020 2025 2030 Type X Y NOX NO2 PM10 PM2.5 NOX NO2 PM10 PM2.5 NOX NO2 PM10 PM2.5 5 Upper and Lower Haysden 2 Strategic 557500 145500 12.0 9.1 18.5 12.6 9.9 7.6 18.2 12.3 8.6 6.6 18.1 12.2 site 6 31 Driffield Gardens Tonbridge Existing 557500 145500 12.0 9.1 18.5 12.6 9.9 7.6 18.2 12.3 8.6 6.6 18.1 12.2 7 Upper and Lower Haysden 1 Strategic 557500 145500 12.0 9.1 18.5 12.6 9.9 7.6 18.2 12.3 8.6 6.6 18.1 12.2 site 8 Hazelwood Lower Haysden Existing 557500 145500 12.0 9.1 18.5 12.6 9.9 7.6 18.2 12.3 8.6 6.6 18.1 12.2 Lane Tonbridge 9 1 Brook Street Tonbridge Existing 558500 145500 14.1 10.6 20.7 14.3 11.7 8.9 20.4 14.0 10.4 7.9 20.3 13.9 10 38 Quarry Hill Road Tonbridge Existing 558500 145500 14.1 10.6 20.7 14.3 11.7 8.9 20.4 14.0 10.4 7.9 20.3 13.9 11 Tonbridge House 36 Quarry Existing 558500 145500 14.1 10.6 20.7 14.3 11.7 8.9 20.4 14.0 10.4 7.9 20.3 13.9 Hill Road 12 10A Quarry Hill Parade Existing 558500 145500 14.1 10.6 20.7 14.3 11.7 8.9 20.4 14.0 10.4 7.9 20.3 13.9 Tonbridge 13 1C High Street Tonbridge AQMA 558500 146500 12.3 9.3 19.8 14.0 10.4 7.9 19.5 13.7 9.4 7.2 19.3 13.6 14 27A High Street Tonbridge AQMA 558500 146500 12.3 9.3 19.8 14.0 10.4 7.9 19.5 13.7 9.4 7.2 19.3 13.6 15 55 Sevenoaks Road Borough AQMA 560500 157500 14.6 10.9 22.0 13.7 12.1 9.1 21.9 13.4 10.7 8.1 22.0 13.3 Green Sevenoaks 16 45 Sevenoaks Road Borough AQMA 560500 157500 14.6 10.9 22.0 13.7 12.1 9.1 21.9 13.4 10.7 8.1 22.0 13.3 Green Sevenoaks 17 Rose Cottage 56 Sevenoaks Existing 560500 157500 14.6 10.9 22.0 13.7 12.1 9.1 21.9 13.4 10.7 8.1 22.0 13.3 Road Borough Green 18 Bildory 61 Western Road AQMA 560500 157500 14.6 10.9 22.0 13.7 12.1 9.1 21.9 13.4 10.7 8.1 22.0 13.3 Borough Green 19 19 Sevenoaks Road Borough AQMA 560500 157500 14.6 10.9 22.0 13.7 12.1 9.1 21.9 13.4 10.7 8.1 22.0 13.3 Green Sevenoaks 20 1A Sevenoaks Road Borough AQMA 560500 157500 14.6 10.9 22.0 13.7 12.1 9.1 21.9 13.4 10.7 8.1 22.0 13.3 Green Sevenoaks 21 2 Maidstone Road Borough AQMA 560500 157500 14.6 10.9 22.0 13.7 12.1 9.1 21.9 13.4 10.7 8.1 22.0 13.3 Green Sevenoaks 22 1 Western Road Borough AQMA 560500 157500 14.6 10.9 22.0 13.7 12.1 9.1 21.9 13.4 10.7 8.1 22.0 13.3 Green Sevenoaks 23 58 High Street Borough Green AQMA 560500 157500 14.6 10.9 22.0 13.7 12.1 9.1 21.9 13.4 10.7 8.1 22.0 13.3 Sevenoaks
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 51 Air Quality Evidence Base
ID Name 1km grid square 2020 2025 2030 Type X Y NOX NO2 PM10 PM2.5 NOX NO2 PM10 PM2.5 NOX NO2 PM10 PM2.5 24 Wrotham School 1 Existing 561500 158500 20.3 14.9 22.5 14.3 15.7 11.7 22.3 14.0 13.1 9.9 22.2 13.9 25 Borough Green Gardens Strategic 561500 157500 14.7 11.0 20.4 13.4 12.2 9.2 20.2 13.1 10.7 8.2 20.1 13.0 Phase 1A site 26 Borough Green Gardens Strategic 561500 158500 20.3 14.9 22.5 14.3 15.7 11.7 22.3 14.0 13.1 9.9 22.2 13.9 Phase 1B site 27 North of Kings Hill Strategic 568500 156500 13.5 10.2 19.7 13.6 11.3 8.6 19.4 13.3 10.0 7.7 19.3 13.2 site 28 Rathshan 21 Windmill Lane Existing 568500 156500 13.5 10.2 19.7 13.6 11.3 8.6 19.4 13.3 10.0 7.7 19.3 13.2 East West Malling 29 186E Tonbridge Road AQMA 569500 153500 12.3 9.3 19.2 13.1 10.4 7.9 19.0 12.9 9.3 7.1 18.8 12.7 Wateringbury Maidstone 30 Flat 1 789 London Road AQMA 570500 158500 22.1 16.0 24.6 16.4 17.5 12.9 24.3 16.1 15.0 11.2 24.2 15.9 Larkfield Aylesford 31 15 Cygnet Close Larkfield Existing 570500 158500 22.1 16.0 24.6 16.4 17.5 12.9 24.3 16.1 15.0 11.2 24.2 15.9 Aylesford 32 200 New Hythe Lane Larkfield AQMA 570500 159500 21.2 15.3 23.6 15.9 17.2 12.6 23.4 15.5 14.9 11.1 23.3 15.4 Aylesford 33 578 London Road Ditton AQMA 571500 158500 28.0 19.6 24.6 16.2 22.5 16.1 24.3 15.8 19.6 14.2 24.2 15.7 Aylesford 34 2 New Road Ditton AQMA 571500 158500 28.0 19.6 24.6 16.2 22.5 16.1 24.3 15.8 19.6 14.2 24.2 15.7 35 110 Station Road Aylesford AQMA 571500 158500 28.0 19.6 24.6 16.2 22.5 16.1 24.3 15.8 19.6 14.2 24.2 15.7 36 170 Station Road AQMA 571500 158500 28.0 19.6 24.6 16.2 22.5 16.1 24.3 15.8 19.6 14.2 24.2 15.7 37 290 London Road AQMA 572500 157500 17.5 12.8 21.2 14.0 14.8 11.0 20.9 13.7 13.2 9.9 20.9 13.6 38 26 Hall Road Aylesford Existing 572500 158500 26.4 18.7 24.6 16.0 20.7 15.0 24.3 15.6 17.7 13.0 24.3 15.5 39 West of Hermitage Lane Strategic 572500 157500 17.5 12.8 21.2 14.0 14.8 11.0 20.9 13.7 13.2 9.9 20.9 13.6 site 40 322 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford Existing 572500 160500 15.5 11.5 21.1 14.2 13.1 9.8 20.9 13.9 11.7 8.9 20.8 13.8 41 Whitepost Wood Lane Existing 572500 157500 17.5 12.8 21.2 14.0 14.8 11.0 20.9 13.7 13.2 9.9 20.9 13.6 42 Bushey Wood Strategic 572500 160500 15.5 11.5 21.1 14.2 13.1 9.8 20.9 13.9 11.7 8.9 20.8 13.8 site 43 Whitepost Field 1 Strategic 572500 157500 17.5 12.8 21.2 14.0 14.8 11.0 20.9 13.7 13.2 9.9 20.9 13.6 site 44 East Malling Research Station Strategic 572500 157500 17.5 12.8 21.2 14.0 14.8 11.0 20.9 13.7 13.2 9.9 20.9 13.6 site 45 198 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford Existing 572500 160500 15.5 11.5 21.1 14.2 13.1 9.8 20.9 13.9 11.7 8.9 20.8 13.8
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ID Name 1km grid square 2020 2025 2030 Type X Y NOX NO2 PM10 PM2.5 NOX NO2 PM10 PM2.5 NOX NO2 PM10 PM2.5 46 Barming Depot, Hermitage Strategic 572500 156500 13.4 10.1 20.7 13.4 11.4 8.6 20.5 13.1 10.2 7.8 20.4 13.0 Lane site 47 156 London Road Aylesford AQMA 572500 157500 17.5 12.8 21.2 14.0 14.8 11.0 20.9 13.7 13.2 9.9 20.9 13.6 48 Whitepost Field 2 Strategic 572500 157500 17.5 12.8 21.2 14.0 14.8 11.0 20.9 13.7 13.2 9.9 20.9 13.6 site 49 10 East Park Road Aylesford Existing 573500 158500 28.1 19.8 24.5 15.6 22.0 15.9 24.3 15.3 18.7 13.6 24.3 15.1 50 3 Culand Cottages Pilgrims Existing 573500 161500 15.1 11.2 20.4 13.7 12.7 9.5 20.1 13.5 11.3 8.6 20.0 13.3 Way Burham Rochester 51 Staff Accommodation at Poppy Existing 573500 157500 16.9 12.5 25.0 14.3 13.9 10.4 25.1 14.1 12.3 9.2 25.4 13.9 Fields Pub 52 Whitepost Field 3 Existing 573500 157500 16.9 12.5 25.0 14.3 13.9 10.4 25.1 14.1 12.3 9.2 25.4 13.9 53 The Orchards Maidstone AQMA 573500 157500 16.9 12.5 25.0 14.3 13.9 10.4 25.1 14.1 12.3 9.2 25.4 13.9 54 Morningside 33 Old Chatham Existing 574500 160500 17.9 13.2 21.5 14.3 14.8 11.0 21.3 14.0 13.1 9.8 21.2 13.8 Road Aylesford 55 Managers Flat Lower Bell 201 Existing 574500 160500 17.9 13.2 21.5 14.3 14.8 11.0 21.3 14.0 13.1 9.8 21.2 13.8 Chatham Road
Notes: Concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 have been uplifted by a factor of 1.40. Source: https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/data/laqm-background-maps
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 53 Air Quality Evidence Base
C. Traffic data
C.1 Overview This appendix presents the traffic data used within the assessment, as provided by Mott MacDonald traffic consultants.
C.2 Traffic flows Table 21 presents the traffic data received by Mott MacDonald traffic consultants for use in the modelling assessment. The change between traffic flows without development (‘Do Minimum – DM’) and with development (‘Do Something – DS’) were used to determine whether individual roads trigger the IAQM criteria for potentially significant changes in traffic flows. These links are considered to be within the ‘affected road network’ (ARN).
Figure 8 illustrates the geographical extent of the traffic data, as included in the dispersion model.
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 54 Air Quality Evidence Base
Table 21: Traffic data ID Link Description Speed Base (2016) 2025 DM 2025 DS 2031 DM 2031 DS In (kph) ARN? AADT HDV AADT HDV AADT HDV AADT HDV AADT HDV (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 1 Pilgrims Way, Eccles (E of WB 66 3,401 3% 3,552 3% 3,983 3% 3,573 3% 4,512 3% Yes Bull Lane junction) EB 66 3,231 3% 3,374 3% 3,820 2% 3,394 3% 4,366 2% 2 Bull Lane (S of Rochester NB 49 1,355 5% 1,415 5% 1,839 4% 1,424 5% 2,347 3% Yes Road/Pilgrims Way junction) SB 53 1,411 4% 1,474 4% 1,883 4% 1,483 4% 2,375 3% 3 Rochester Road (E of Bull NB 54 2,814 4% 2,939 4% 2,960 4% 2,957 4% 3,003 4% No Lane junction) SB 53 2,979 4% 3,111 4% 3,133 4% 3,130 4% 3,178 4% 4 A229 Bluebell Hill, NB 106 29,381 7% 30,680 7% 32,028 7% 30,866 7% 33,805 6% Yes Maidstone (N of Rochester SB 104 28,893 8% 30,170 8% 31,531 7% 30,354 8% 33,318 7% Road) 5 A20 Coldharbour Lane, NB 69 18,714 9% 19,541 9% 23,685 7% 19,660 9% 28,688 6% Yes Allington (N of Coldharbour SB 64 17,887 7% 18,678 7% 22,834 6% 18,791 7% 27,848 5% Roundabout) 6 A20 London Road, Allington WB 60 13,588 4% 14,188 4% 14,444 4% 14,275 4% 14,831 4% Yes (E of Coldharbour EB 67 13,588 5% 14,189 5% 14,444 5% 14,275 5% 14,831 5% Roundabout) 7 A20 London Road, Allington WB 65 11,875 6% 12,400 6% 16,813 4% 12,476 6% 22,089 4% Yes (W of Coldharbour EB 65 11,936 6% 12,463 6% 16,862 5% 12,539 6% 22,123 4% Roundabout) 8 Hall Road, Quarry Wood (N NB 53 4,548 4% 4,749 4% 4,790 4% 4,778 4% 4,867 4% Yes of A20 London Rd) SB 49 5,030 3% 5,252 3% 5,294 3% 5,284 3% 5,374 3% 9 A20 London Road, Quarry WB 57 15,041 7% 15,706 7% 16,704 6% 15,801 7% 17,976 6% Yes Wood (E of Hall Road) EB 53 15,022 7% 15,686 7% 16,690 6% 15,781 7% 17,970 6% 10 Mills Road, Quarry Wood NB 38 8,387 7% 8,758 7% 8,758 7% 8,811 7% 8,811 7% No SB 40 9,831 5% 10,266 5% 10,266 5% 10,328 5% 10,328 5% 11 A20 London Road, Quarry WB 56 9,660 4% 10,088 4% 11,045 3% 10,149 4% 12,234 3% Yes Wood (W of Hall Road) EB 59 9,522 4% 9,943 4% 10,906 4% 10,003 4% 12,102 4% 12 New Hythe Lane, Larkfield NB 41 5,448 3% 5,689 3% 5,702 3% 5,724 3% 5,751 3% No (N of A20 London Road) SB 46 5,665 3% 5,916 3% 5,928 3% 5,952 3% 5,979 3% 13 A20 London Road, Larkfield WB 57 12,128 3% 12,664 3% 13,621 2% 12,741 3% 14,826 2% Yes (E of New Hythe Lane) EB 58 12,065 4% 12,598 4% 13,562 3% 12,675 4% 14,774 3% 14 WB 49 10,417 2% 10,878 2% 11,835 2% 10,944 2% 13,029 2% Yes
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 55 Air Quality Evidence Base
ID Link Description Speed Base (2016) 2025 DM 2025 DS 2031 DM 2031 DS In (kph) ARN? AADT HDV AADT HDV AADT HDV AADT HDV AADT HDV (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) A20 London Road, Larkfield EB 47 9,320 4% 9,732 4% 10,696 4% 9,791 4% 11,891 4% (W of New Hythe Lane) 15 A228 Ashton Way (N of WB 103 15,515 7% 16,201 7% 16,694 7% 16,300 7% 17,373 6% Yes Tower View Roundabout) EB 103 15,515 7% 16,201 7% 16,710 7% 16,300 7% 17,408 6% 16 Red Hill, Wateringbury NB 63 1,660 5% 1,734 5% 1,962 5% 1,744 5% 2,242 4% Yes SB 63 1,803 6% 1,883 6% 2,121 5% 1,894 6% 2,412 5% 17 A26 Tonbridge Road, WB 50 6,898 4% 7,203 4% 7,395 4% 7,247 4% 7,664 4% Yes Wateringbury (E of Red Hill) EB 54 7,364 3% 7,690 3% 7,894 3% 7,737 3% 8,182 3% 18 B2015 Bow Road, NB 50 5,526 3% 5,770 3% 5,967 3% 5,805 3% 6,233 3% Yes Wateringbury SB 46 5,114 3% 5,340 3% 5,546 3% 5,372 3% 5,821 3% 19 A26 Tonbridge Road, WB 52 4,085 4% 4,265 4% 4,363 4% 4,291 4% 4,504 4% Yes Wateringbury (W of Red Hill) EB 51 4,296 4% 4,486 4% 4,597 4% 4,513 4% 4,755 4% 20 A227 Wrotham Road, WB 47 4,369 2% 4,551 2% 5,562 2% 4,565 2% 2,692 2% Yes Borough Green (N of EB 47 4,865 3% 5,067 3% 6,066 3% 5,083 3% 2,887 3% Fairfield Road) 21 A25 Maidstone Road, WB 51 7,329 3% 7,634 3% 7,851 3% 7,659 3% 3,526 3% Yes Borough Green (W of EB 53 5,911 3% 6,157 3% 6,367 3% 6,177 3% 1,750 3% Crouch Lane) 22 A25 Sevenoaks Road, WB 50 8,282 3% 8,626 3% 8,829 3% 8,654 3% 2,825 3% Yes Borough Green (W of A227 EB 45 8,307 2% 8,653 2% 8,995 2% 8,681 2% 1,953 2% Western Road) 23 A25 Sevenoaks Road, WB 52 5,041 4% 5,251 4% 5,360 4% 5,268 4% 1,574 4% Yes Borough Green (between EB 52 4,982 5% 5,189 5% 5,466 5% 5,206 5% 867 5% Western Road roundabout and A25/High Street junction) 24 A227 Western Road, WB 43 3,062 3% 3,189 3% 3,201 3% 3,199 3% 1,388 3% No Borough Green (E of EB 45 3,911 2% 4,074 2% 4,085 2% 4,087 2% 1,660 2% A227/A25 roundabout) 25 High Street, Borough Green NB 39 2,263 2% 2,357 2% 3,356 2% 2,364 2% 2,204 2% Yes SB 36 2,237 2% 2,330 2% 3,341 1% 2,337 2% 2,157 2% 26 Lower Haysden Lane, WB 53 401 1% 421 1% 534 1% 424 1% 670 1% Yes Tonbridge (W of Upper EB 56 396 1% 416 1% 533 1% 419 1% 674 1% Haysden Lane/Brook Street junction)
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 56 Air Quality Evidence Base
ID Link Description Speed Base (2016) 2025 DM 2025 DS 2031 DM 2031 DS In (kph) ARN? AADT HDV AADT HDV AADT HDV AADT HDV AADT HDV (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 27 Brook Street, Tonbridge (E WB 50 2,764 3% 2,903 3% 3,468 2% 2,922 3% 4,153 2% Yes of Upper Haysden EB 49 2,825 3% 2,967 3% 3,552 3% 2,987 3% 4,261 2% Lane/Brook Street junction) 28 Upper Haysden Lane, NB 69 2,631 3% 2,763 3% 3,056 3% 2,781 3% 3,418 3% Yes Tonbridge (W of Lower SB 71 2,624 4% 2,756 4% 3,038 3% 2,774 4% 3,389 3% Haysden Lane/Brook Street junction) 32 Hermitage Lane (N of NB 70 9,520 4% 9,941 4% 10,873 3% 10,001 4% 12,032 3% Yes Hermitage Court junction) SB 72 9,424 3% 9,841 3% 10,792 3% 9,901 3% 11,974 3% (NB: based on November 2016 ATC) 33 M20 (between J4 and J5) WB 113 60,352 9% 63,021 9% 64,009 8% 63,404 9% 65,557 8% Yes EB 113 60,204 7% 62,866 7% 63,992 6% 63,248 7% 65,702 6% 34 M26 (between A227 WB 113 29,045 2% 30,253 2% 30,915 2% 30,351 2% 31,793 2% Yes overbridge and J2A) EB 113 22,623 3% 23,564 3% 24,200 3% 23,640 3% 25,025 3% 35 High Street, Tonbridge NB 37 8,688 2% 9,126 2% 9,969 2% 9,185 2% 11,022 2% Yes SB 35 9,720 3% 10,209 3% 11,163 3% 10,275 3% 12,354 3% 36 A21 Tonbridge Bypass (W NB 113 22,557 3% 23,692 3% 23,985 3% 23,846 3% 24,485 3% Yes of A26 intersection) SB 113 21,933 3% 23,037 3% 23,288 3% 23,187 3% 23,734 3% 39 West of new Assessment NB 64 ------7,572 3% Yes Junction 32 (on relief road) SB 64 ------8,451 2% 40 East of new Assessment NB 64 ------6,086 3% Yes Junction 32 (on relief road) SB 64 ------6,034 2% Notes: WB: Westbound; EB: Eastbound; SB: Southbound; NB: Northbound Source: Mott MacDonald
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 57 Air Quality Evidence Base
Figure 8: Modelled traffic links (Pages 1 – 7)
Figure 8. Modelled traffic links Page 1 of 7
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 58 Air Quality Evidence Base
Figure 8. Modelled traffic links Page 2 of 7
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 59 Air Quality Evidence Base
Figure 8. Modelled traffic links Page 3 of 7
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Figure 8. Modelled traffic links Page 4 of 7
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Figure 8. Modelled traffic links Page 5 of 7
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 62 Air Quality Evidence Base
Figure 8. Modelled traffic links Page 6 of 7
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 63 Air Quality Evidence Base
Figure 8. Modelled traffic links Page 7 of 7
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 64 Air Quality Evidence Base
D. Model verification
D.1 Overview Model verification is a process by which checks are carried out to determine the performance of a dispersion model at a local level, primarily by comparison of modelled results with monitoring data. Differences between modelled and monitored data may occur as a result of uncertainties associated with a number of model inputs including:
● Traffic flows, speeds, and vehicle splits ● Emissions estimates ● Background concentrations ● Meteorological data ● Surface roughness length and terrain The verification process involves investigating uncertainties and minimising them either through informed refinement of model input parameters or adjustment of the model output if it is deemed necessary.
D.2 Methodology Guidance produced by Defra29 provides a methodology for model verification including calculation methods and directions on the suitability of monitoring data.
A total of 33 roadside sites have been used for verification. Sites were selected based on their proximity to modelled road links, suitability as ‘roadside’ sites (ie based on the Local Authority classifications and revised according to the distance to nearest roads), availability of 2016 data and absence of any unusual activities nearby (eg construction works) that may have affected monitored concentrations in 2016. Of the 33 sites selected, one is a continuous analyser (Tonbridge Roadside 2) and the remaining 32 are diffusion tube sites. Some of the diffusion tubes are triplicate sites, with three tubes deployed at the same location.
Verification of NO2 concentrations has been carried out using 2016 results from the roadside sites. Background concentrations used in the model verification have been taken from the Defra background maps and are presented in Table 22.
Table 22: Background concentrations used in model verification Location Annual mean concentration 2016 (µg/m³)
NOx NO2 TN35 14.0 10.5 TN44 14.0 10.5 TN45_TN74_TN75 14.0 10.5 ZT5 14.0 10.5 TN33 14.1 10.5 TN42_TN76_TN77 14.1 10.5 TN43 14.1 10.5 TN78 17.1 12.6
29 Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (2016), Local Air Quality Management – Technical Guidance (16).
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 65 Air Quality Evidence Base
Location Annual mean concentration 2016 (µg/m³)
NOx NO2 TN79 17.1 12.6 TN93 17.1 12.6 TN94 17.1 12.6 TN87 17.1 12.6 TN71 17.1 12.6 TN86 17.1 12.6 TN88 17.1 12.6 TN89 17.1 12.6 TN90 17.1 12.6 DF1_DF2_DF3 20.1 14.6 TN60_TN62_TN63 20.1 14.6 TN68 20.1 14.6 TN102 20.1 14.6 TN103 20.1 14.6 DF7_DF8_DF9 26.5 18.7 TN57_TN58_TN59 26.5 18.7 TN64 26.5 18.7 DF4_DF5_DF6 33.2 22.7 TN49_TN53_TN54 33.2 22.7 NAS30 25.0 17.5 NAS27 26.4 18.4 NAS31 26.4 18.4 TN7a 26.5 18.7 TN80a 31.8 22.0 TN5a 31.8 22.0 Source: Defra Local Air Quality Management https://laqm.defra.gov.uk/review-and-assessment/tools/background- maps.html
Table 23 presents the monitored data used within the verification.
Table 23: Monitored data used in model verification Location Monitor type Annual mean monitored concentration 2016 (µg/m³)
NOx NO2 TN35 Diffusion tube 63.6 34.6 TN44 Diffusion tube 77.7 40.5 TN45_TN74_TN75 Diffusion tube 77.7 40.5 ZT5 Automatic analyser 112.4 46.8 TN33 Diffusion tube 120.4 56.4 TN42_TN76_TN77 Diffusion tube 145.3 64.8 TN43 Diffusion tube 74.4 39.1 TN78 Diffusion tube 60.3 33.7 TN79 Diffusion tube 52.9 30.4 TN93 Diffusion tube 72.4 38.9 TN94 Diffusion tube 48.8 28.5 TN87 Diffusion tube 52.3 30.1 TN71 Diffusion tube 35.9 22.3
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 66 Air Quality Evidence Base
Location Monitor type Annual mean monitored concentration 2016 (µg/m³)
NOx NO2 TN86 Diffusion tube 41.0 24.8 TN88 Diffusion tube 45.2 26.8 TN89 Diffusion tube 42.9 25.7 TN90 Diffusion tube 42.9 25.7 DF1_DF2_DF3 Diffusion tube 84.4 44.3 TN60_TN62_TN63 Diffusion tube 85.7 44.8 TN68 Diffusion tube 52.8 30.8 TN102 Diffusion tube 30.4 20.0 TN103 Diffusion tube 38.2 23.9 DF7_DF8_DF9 Diffusion tube 75.8 41.8 TN57_TN58_TN59 Diffusion tube 57.2 33.7 TN64 Diffusion tube 51.3 31.0 DF4_DF5_DF6 Diffusion tube 54.4 33.1 TN49_TN53_TN54 Diffusion tube 49.7 30.9 NAS30 Diffusion tube 57.9 33.6 NAS27 Diffusion tube 64.1 36.5 NAS31 Diffusion tube 57.4 33.5 TN7a Diffusion tube 66.8 38.0 TN80a Diffusion tube 58.3 34.9 TN5a Diffusion tube 59.6 35.5
Note: NOx values for diffusion tubes derived from Defra NOx to NO2 calculator
D.3 Verification results
Table 24 presents the model results for NO2, prior to adjustment. The results are also presented graphically in Figure 9. At the majority of monitoring sites, the modelled NO2 concentration is below the monitored value, although at some sites the modelled concentrations are greater than the monitored value. On this basis it has been concluded that the model is generally under predicting annual mean NO2 concentrations within the study area, although some areas have overpredictions. Therefore, it is considered appropriate to calculate different adjustment factors to apply to different areas of the model.
Table 24: Model verification results for NO2 (unadjusted)
Monitor ID Monitored total NO2 (µg/m³) Modelled total NO2 (µg/m³) % difference TN35 34.6 39.1 12.9 TN44 40.5 39.8 -1.7 TN45_TN74_TN75 40.5 36.9 -9.0 ZT5 46.8 35.4 -24.4 TN33 56.4 37.2 -34.0 TN42_TN76_TN77 64.8 36.7 -43.4 TN43 39.1 22.6 -42.1 TN78 33.7 19.5 -42.3 TN79 30.4 19.0 -37.6 TN93 38.9 22.3 -42.7 TN94 28.5 20.4 -28.4 TN87 30.1 20.7 -31.2 TN71 22.3 19.5 -12.6
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 67 Air Quality Evidence Base
Monitor ID Monitored total NO2 (µg/m³) Modelled total NO2 (µg/m³) % difference TN86 24.8 20.0 -19.4 TN88 26.8 22.2 -17.1 TN89 25.7 19.4 -24.5 TN90 25.7 19.6 -23.8 DF1_DF2_DF3 44.3 37.5 -15.4 TN60_TN62_TN63 44.8 38.1 -15.0 TN68 30.8 27.4 -11.2 TN102 20.0 20.1 0.6 TN103 23.9 23.2 -2.8 DF7_DF8_DF9 41.8 33.5 -19.9 TN57_TN58_TN59 33.7 30.4 -9.8 TN64 31.0 32.1 3.6 DF4_DF5_DF6 33.1 34.5 4.3 TN49_TN53_TN54 30.9 31.8 2.8 NAS30 33.6 28.2 -16.0 NAS27 36.5 28.8 -21.2 NAS31 33.5 32.2 -3.9 TN7a 38.0 42.5 11.8 TN80a 34.9 52.1 49.2 TN5a 35.5 39.5 11.3 Source: Mott MacDonald
Figure 9: Total NO2 (before adjustment of road NOx)
Source: Mott MacDonald
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 68 Air Quality Evidence Base
To derive the adjustment factors for this assessment, monitoring sites were first assigned to one of five areas depending on the location and type of adjacent road link:
● Tonbridge High Street (for monitoring sites/receptors located in the modelled street canyon) ● Wateringbury AQMA ● Gradient links: Monitoring sites/receptors adjacent to road links considered likely to have elevated emissions due to steep gradients (as described in section 4.4.3) ● Motorway: For sites adjacent to the M20 or M26 motorways ● Al other areas: Applies to all road links that do not fall into the above categories.
Following this assignment, the modelled road NOx contributions have been compared to monitored road NOx contributions to derive an adjustment factor for each of the five area types:
● Tonbridge High Street: 1.18 ● Wateringbury AQMA: 2.19 ● Gradient links: 2.81 ● Motorway: 0.57 ● Al other areas: 1.34
The adjustment factors have been applied to the modelled road NOx contributions and added to background NOx concentrations to give total corrected NOx at the verification sites. The final stage of the verification process involves applying the NOx to NO2 relationship presented in Section 4.4. Table 25 presents the total adjusted modelled NO2 and the monitored NO2 after the adjustment factor has been applied. Figure 10 illustrates that, following adjustment, the model is generally performing well, with most sites within ±10% and all but one site within ±25% agreement.
Table 25: Adjusted modelled NO2 results Site ID Adjustment Monitored total Modelled corrected Adjusted % area NO2 (µg/m³) total NO2 (µg/m³) difference TN35 Tonbridge High 34.6 43.4 25.5 Street: TN44 40.5 44.3 9.3 TN45_TN74_TN75 40.5 40.9 1.0 ZT5 46.8 39.3 -16.1 TN33 Wateringbury 56.4 61.8 9.5 AQMA TN42_TN76_TN77 64.8 60.7 -6.3 TN43 39.1 35.4 -9.5 TN78 Gradient 33.7 30.8 -8.6 TN79 30.4 29.6 -2.6 TN93 38.9 37.8 -2.9 TN94 28.5 33.2 16.6 TN87 All others 30.1 23.4 -22.4 TN71 22.3 21.8 -2.4 TN86 24.8 22.4 -9.6 TN88 26.8 25.3 -5.5 TN89 25.7 21.7 -15.7 TN90 25.7 21.9 -14.8 DF1_DF2_DF3 44.3 44.3 -0.1 TN60_TN62_TN63 44.8 45.0 0.5
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 69 Air Quality Evidence Base
Site ID Adjustment Monitored total Modelled corrected Adjusted % area NO2 (µg/m³) total NO2 (µg/m³) difference TN68 30.8 31.4 1.9 TN102 20.0 22.0 9.8 TN103 23.9 26.0 9.0 DF7_DF8_DF9 41.8 38.1 -8.8 TN57_TN58_TN59 33.7 34.1 1.3 TN64 31.0 36.4 17.3 DF4_DF5_DF6 33.1 38.3 15.6 TN49_TN53_TN54 30.9 34.7 12.3 NAS30 33.6 31.7 -5.8 NAS27 36.5 32.1 -12.0 NAS31 33.5 36.6 9.1 TN7a Motorway 38.0 33.0 -13.2 TN80a 34.9 40.3 15.5 TN5a 35.5 32.4 -8.8 Source: Mott MacDonald
Figure 10: Total NO2 (after adjustment of road NOx)
Source: Mott MacDonald
To further investigate model uncertainty, the root mean squared error (RMSE) and fractional bias (FB) were calculated for each of the adjustment areas in accordance with Defra’s TG(16). Table 26 presents the calculated values before and after model adjustment.
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 70 Air Quality Evidence Base
Table 26: RMSE and fractional bias Adjustment Before adjustment After adjustment area RMSE (µg/m3) Fractional Bias RMSE Fractional Bias Tonbridge High 6.40 0.072 6.10 -0.033 Street Wateringbury 21.84 0.497 4.44 0.015 AQMA Gradient 12.99 0.474 2.86 0.001 All others 5.10 0.133 3.32 0.011 Motorway 10.51 -0.212 4.63 0.026 Source: Mott MacDonald
RMSE is used to define the average error or uncertainty of the model; it has an ideal value of zero however Defra TG(16) states that values should be at least within ±25% of the objective (ie 3 3 for annual mean NO2, 25% of 40µg/m = 10µg/m ) and ideally within 10% (ie for annual mean 3 NO2, less than 4µg/m ).
The fractional bias of the model may be used in order to identify if the model shows a systematic tendency to over or under predict. FB values vary between +2 and -2, with an ideal value of zero. Negative values suggest a model over-prediction and positive values suggest a model under-prediction.
Following adjustment, the RMSE values calculated indicate that the model performance is improved and all RMSE values are less than 10µg/m3, with two adjustment areas also less than 4µg/m3. The FB values indicate that the model has a tendency to slightly over-predict in Tonbridge High Street, and to slightly under-predict in all other areas, however FB values are close to zero and the model is therefore considered to be performing well.
D.4 Summary Five different adjustment factors have been derived and applied to modelled NOx concentrations across the study area. Following adjustment, the model is performing well.
As no roadside PM10 or PM2.5 monitoring was available to undertake verification of particulate matter concentrations, the NOx adjustment factors have also been applied to modelled PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations.
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E. Receptors
This appendix presents details of all discrete human health receptors included in the assessment, in Table 27, and their locations, in Figure 11.
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 72 Air Quality Evidence Base
Table 27: Modelled human health receptors ID Receptor name National grid Height Type Local Authority reference of receptor X Y (m)(a) 5 Upper and Lower Haysden 2 557454.7 145152.8 1.5 Strategic site (E) Tonbridge 6 31 Driffield Gardens Tonbridge Kent TN9 2RE 557477.6 145152.1 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) Tonbridge 7 Upper and Lower Haysden 1 557866.1 145598.8 1.5 Strategic site Tonbridge 8 Hazelwood Lower Haysden Lane Tonbridge Kent TN9 2PL 557880.1 145615.6 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) Tonbridge 9 1 Brook Street Tonbridge Kent TN9 2PP 558536.6 145617.8 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) Tonbridge 10 38 Quarry Hill Road Tonbridge Kent TN9 2RS 558641.6 145749.4 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) Tonbridge 11 Tonbridge House 36 Quarry Hill Road Tonbridge Kent TN9 2RS 558670.6 145800.9 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) Tonbridge 12 10A Quarry Hill Parade Tonbridge Kent TN9 2HR 558719.9 145866.9 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) Tonbridge 13 1C High Street Tonbridge Kent TN9 1SG 558879.5 146156.6 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge High Street AQMA) Tonbridge 14 27A High Street Tonbridge Kent TN9 1SQ 558937.0 146256.6 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge High Street AQMA) Tonbridge 15 55 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green Sevenoaks Kent TN15 8AT 560567.7 157327.9 1.5 Existing (Borough Green AQMA) Tonbridge 16 45 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green Sevenoaks Kent TN15 8AT 560605.0 157317.7 1.5 Existing (Borough Green AQMA) Tonbridge 17 Rose Cottage 56 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green TN15 8AY 560630.8 157332.1 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) Tonbridge 18 Bildory 61 Western Road Borough Green TN15 8AN 560673.5 157342.0 1.5 Existing (Borough Green AQMA) Tonbridge 19 19 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green Sevenoaks Kent TN15 8AX 560730.4 157250.0 1.5 Existing (Borough Green AQMA) Tonbridge 20 1A Sevenoaks Road Borough Green Sevenoaks Kent TN15 8AX 560792.2 157230.6 4.5 Existing (Borough Green AQMA) Tonbridge 21 2 Maidstone Road Borough Green Sevenoaks Kent TN15 8BD 560809.2 157225.6 1.5 Existing (Borough Green AQMA) Tonbridge 22 1 Western Road Borough Green Sevenoaks Kent TN15 8AW 560914.2 157355.2 4.5 Existing (Borough Green AQMA) Tonbridge 23 58 High Street Borough Green Sevenoaks Kent TN15 8BJ 560939.1 157363.0 1.5 Existing (Borough Green AQMA) Tonbridge 24 Wrotham School 1 561098.5 158376.8 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) Tonbridge 25 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1A 561197.0 157991.0 1.5 Strategic site (C) Tonbridge 26 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1B 561909.0 158251.4 1.5 Strategic site (C) Tonbridge 27 North of Kings Hill 568044.3 156552.5 1.5 Strategic site (D) Tonbridge 28 Rathshan 21 Windmill Lane East West Malling Kent ME19 6HS 568133.4 156850.7 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) Tonbridge 29 186E Tonbridge Road Wateringbury Maidstone Kent 569195.5 153490.5 1.5 Existing (Wateringbury AQMA) Tonbridge 30 Flat 1 789 London Road Larkfield Aylesford Kent ME20 6DE 570288.0 158311.4 1.5 Existing (Larkfield AQMA) Tonbridge 31 15 Cygnet Close Larkfield Aylesford Kent ME20 6QH 570315.3 158955.1 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) Tonbridge 32 200 New Hythe Lane Larkfield Aylesford Kent ME20 6PT 570389.9 159025.9 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) Tonbridge
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 73 Air Quality Evidence Base
ID Receptor name National grid Height Type Local Authority reference of receptor X Y (m)(a) 33 578 London Road Ditton Aylesford Kent ME20 6BX 571029.2 158477.1 1.5 Existing (Larkfield AQMA) Tonbridge 34 2 New Road Ditton 571246.7 158374.2 1.5 Existing (Ditton AQMA) Tonbridge 35 110 Station Road Aylesford Kent ME20 7JW 571749.4 158693.2 3.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) Tonbridge 36 170 Station Road 571960.7 158661.9 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) Tonbridge 37 290 London Road 572427.3 157932.1 0.5 Existing (Aylesford AQMA) Tonbridge 38 26 Hall Road Aylesford Kent ME20 7QU 572461.8 158052.8 1.5 Existing (Aylesford AQMA) Tonbridge 39 West of Hermitage Lane 572743.8 157506.0 1.5 Strategic site (B) Tonbridge 40 322 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford Kent ME20 7HE 572752.7 160189.0 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) Tonbridge 41 Whitepost Wood Lane 572769.8 157202.4 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) Tonbridge 42 Bushey Wood 572771.9 160187.8 1.5 Strategic site (A) Tonbridge 43 Whitepost Field 1 572785.0 157682.5 1.5 Strategic site (B) Tonbridge 44 East Malling Research Station 572827.0 157011.6 1.5 Strategic site (B) Tonbridge 45 198 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford Kent ME20 7HW 572848.3 160603.2 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) Tonbridge 46 Barming Depot, Hermitage Lane 572853.5 156962.1 1.5 Strategic site (B) Tonbridge 47 156 London Road Aylesford Kent ME20 7NQ 572985.4 157724.4 1.5 Existing (Aylesford AQMA) Tonbridge 48 Whitepost Field 2 572999.8 157699.5 1.5 Strategic site (B) Tonbridge 49 10 East Park Road Aylesford Kent ME20 7NP 573237.2 158004.1 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) Tonbridge 50 3 Culand Cottages Pilgrims Way Burham Rochester Kent ME1 3SN 573352.1 161240.5 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) Tonbridge 51 Staff Accommodation at Poppy Fields Pub 573576.8 157565.8 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) Tonbridge 52 Whitepost Field 3 573617.4 157478.1 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) Tonbridge 53 The Orchards Maidstone 573712.8 157364.2 1.5 Existing (Maidstone Town AQMA) Maidstone 54 Morningside 33 Old Chatham Road Aylesford Kent ME20 7EZ 574842.3 160733.1 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) Tonbridge 55 Managers Flat Lower Bell 201 Chatham Road Aylesford Kent 574850.3 160657.9 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) Tonbridge Note: (a) Most ground floor receptors are modelled at 1.5m representing human exposure. Residential properties located in flats above shops are modelled at 4.5. Some receptor heights (eg receptor 37) have been manually adjusted to account for local variation in the height of roads relative to the property. Source: Mott MacDonald
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 74 Air Quality Evidence Base
Figure 11: Location of human health receptors (Pages 1 – 6)
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 75 Air Quality Evidence Base
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 76 Air Quality Evidence Base
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 77 Air Quality Evidence Base
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 78 Air Quality Evidence Base
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 79 Air Quality Evidence Base
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 80 Air Quality Evidence Base
F. Detailed modelled results
F.1 Overview This appendix presents the dispersion modelling results for all receptors, as follows:
● Table 28: Annual mean NO2 in 2025
● Table 29: Annual mean NO2 in 2031
● Table 30: Annual mean PM10 in 2025
● Table 31: Annual mean PM10 in 2031
● Table 32: Short term (daily) PM10 in 2025
● Table 33: Short term (daily) PM10 in 2031
● Table 34: Annual mean PM2.5 in 2025
● Table 35: Annual mean PM2.5 in 2031
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 81 Air Quality Evidence Base
Table 28: Detailed modelled results: Annual mean NO2, 2025
Receptor name National grid Hei Type Total NO2 Cha Impact Exceedance reference ght (µg/m3) nge description of objective (m) as % (IAQM in DS? X Y DM DS of criteria) AQO
5 Upper and Lower Haysden 2 557455 145153 1.5 Strategic site 17.80 No exceedance 6 31 Driffield Gardens Tonbridge 557478 145152 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 17.04 17.27 0.6% Negligible No exceedance 7 Upper and Lower Haysden 1 557866 145599 1.5 Strategic site 11.39 No exceedance 8 Hazelwood Lower Haysden Lane 557880 145616 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 9.93 10.15 0.6% Negligible No exceedance Tonbridge 9 1 Brook Street Tonbridge 558537 145618 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 12.01 12.37 0.9% Negligible No exceedance 10 38 Quarry Hill Road Tonbridge 558642 145749 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 17.15 17.84 1.7% Negligible No exceedance 11 Tonbridge House 36 Quarry Hill 558671 145801 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 17.60 18.33 1.8% Negligible No exceedance Road Tonbridge 12 10A Quarry Hill Parade Tonbridge 558720 145867 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 13.39 13.74 0.9% Negligible No exceedance 13 1C High Street Tonbridge 558880 146157 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge 19.63 20.55 2.3% Negligible No exceedance High Street AQMA) 14 27A High Street Tonbridge 558937 146257 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge 22.81 23.94 2.8% Negligible No exceedance High Street AQMA) 15 55 Sevenoaks Road Borough 560568 157328 1.5 Existing (Borough 17.91 18.18 0.7% Negligible No exceedance Green Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 16 45 Sevenoaks Road Borough 560605 157318 1.5 Existing (Borough 24.36 24.85 1.2% Negligible No exceedance Green Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 17 Rose Cottage 56 Sevenoaks Road 560631 157332 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 20.62 20.99 0.9% Negligible No exceedance Borough Green 18 Bildory 61 Western Road Borough 560673 157342 1.5 Existing (Borough 13.80 13.94 0.3% Negligible No exceedance Green Green AQMA) 19 19 Sevenoaks Road Borough 560730 157250 1.5 Existing (Borough 19.90 20.57 1.7% Negligible No exceedance Green Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 20 1A Sevenoaks Road Borough 560792 157231 4.5 Existing (Borough 15.57 16.39 2.1% Negligible No exceedance Green Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 21 2 Maidstone Road Borough Green 560809 157226 1.5 Existing (Borough 22.55 24.10 3.9% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 22 1 Western Road Borough Green 560914 157355 4.5 Existing (Borough 12.06 12.51 1.1% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 23 58 High Street Borough Green 560939 157363 1.5 Existing (Borough 14.85 15.86 2.5% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 24 Wrotham School 1 561098 158377 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 14.60 14.71 0.3% Negligible No exceedance
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 82 Air Quality Evidence Base
Receptor name National grid Hei Type Total NO2 Cha Impact Exceedance reference ght (µg/m3) nge description of objective (m) as % (IAQM in DS? X Y DM DS of criteria) AQO 25 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1A 561197 157991 1.5 Strategic site 12.37 No exceedance 26 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1B 561909 158251 1.5 Strategic site 19.11 No exceedance 27 North of Kings Hill 568044 156553 1.5 Strategic site 11.12 No exceedance 28 Rathshan 21 Windmill Lane East 568133 156851 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 11.99 12.09 0.2% Negligible No exceedance West Malling 29 186E Tonbridge Road 569195 153490 1.5 Existing 40.46 41.26 2.0% Moderate Existing Wateringbury (Wateringbury AQMA) adverse exceedance 30 Flat 1 789 London Road Larkfield 570288 158311 1.5 Existing (Larkfield 22.55 23.16 1.5% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford AQMA) 31 15 Cygnet Close Larkfield 570315 158955 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 20.54 20.67 0.3% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford 32 200 New Hythe Lane Larkfield 570390 159026 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 26.14 26.37 0.6% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford 33 578 London Road Ditton Aylesford 571029 158477 1.5 Existing (Larkfield 27.40 28.02 1.6% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 34 2 New Road Ditton 571247 158374 1.5 Existing (Ditton 22.99 23.32 0.8% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 35 110 Station Road Aylesford 571749 158693 3.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 24.66 24.80 0.4% Negligible No exceedance 36 170 Station Road 571961 158662 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 34.64 34.94 0.7% Negligible No exceedance 37 290 London Road 572427 157932 0.5 Existing (Aylesford 26.36 27.14 2.0% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 38 26 Hall Road Aylesford 572462 158053 1.5 Existing (Aylesford 23.62 23.85 0.6% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 39 West of Hermitage Lane 572744 157506 1.5 Strategic site 20.04 No exceedance 40 322 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 572753 160189 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 12.12 12.38 0.7% Negligible No exceedance 41 Whitepost Wood Lane 572770 157202 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 16.44 16.90 1.1% Negligible No exceedance 42 Bushey Wood 572772 160188 1.5 Strategic site 13.76 No exceedance 43 Whitepost Field 1 572785 157683 1.5 Strategic site 23.50 No exceedance 44 East Malling Research Station 572827 157012 1.5 Strategic site 18.18 No exceedance 45 198 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 572848 160603 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 12.43 12.82 1.0% Negligible No exceedance 46 Barming Depot, Hermitage Lane 572853 156962 1.5 Strategic site 20.70 No exceedance 47 156 London Road Aylesford 572985 157724 1.5 Existing (Aylesford 22.01 24.69 6.7% Slight adverse No exceedance AQMA)
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 83 Air Quality Evidence Base
Receptor name National grid Hei Type Total NO2 Cha Impact Exceedance reference ght (µg/m3) nge description of objective (m) as % (IAQM in DS? X Y DM DS of criteria) AQO 48 Whitepost Field 2 573000 157700 1.5 Strategic site 23.34 No exceedance 49 10 East Park Road Aylesford 573237 158004 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 25.29 26.23 2.4% Negligible No exceedance 50 3 Culand Cottages Pilgrims Way 573352 161241 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 14.12 14.32 0.5% Negligible No exceedance Burham Rochester 51 Staff Accommodation at Poppy 573577 157566 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 16.22 16.38 0.4% Negligible No exceedance Fields Pub 52 Whitepost Field 3 573617 157478 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 20.47 20.70 0.6% Negligible No exceedance 53 The Orchards Maidstone 573713 157364 1.5 Existing (Maidstone 18.22 18.40 0.4% Negligible No exceedance Town AQMA) 54 Morningside 33 Old Chatham Road 574842 160733 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 23.86 24.43 1.4% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford 55 Managers Flat Lower Bell 201 574850 160658 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 19.59 20.14 1.4% Negligible No exceedance Chatham Road Aylesford Notes: (a) Results are presented to two decimal places to indicate the magnitude of change and are not representative of model accuracy b) No ‘DM’ results, % change or IAQM impact description for future receptors as there is no relevant exposure at these sites in the Do-Minimum scenario (c) AQO: air quality objective, as defined in Section 2.2.4. Exceedances of the objective are presented in bold Source: Mott MacDonald
Table 29: Detailed modelled results: Annual mean NO2, 2031
Receptor name National grid Hei Type Total NO2 Chan Impact Exceedance of reference ght (µg/m3) ge as description objective in (m) % of (IAQM criteria) DS? X Y DM DS AQO
5 Upper and Lower Haysden 2 557455 145153 1.5 Strategic site 13.89 No exceedance 6 31 Driffield Gardens Tonbridge 557478 145152 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 13.12 13.47 0.9% Negligible No exceedance 7 Upper and Lower Haysden 1 557866 145599 1.5 Strategic site 9.54 No exceedance 8 Hazelwood Lower Haysden 557880 145616 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 8.24 8.55 0.8% Negligible No exceedance Lane Tonbridge 9 1 Brook Street Tonbridge 558537 145618 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 10.03 10.56 1.3% Negligible No exceedance 10 38 Quarry Hill Road Tonbridge 558642 145749 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 13.57 14.60 2.6% Negligible No exceedance 11 Tonbridge House 36 Quarry Hill 558671 145801 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 13.88 14.96 2.7% Negligible No exceedance Road Tonbridge 12 10A Quarry Hill Parade 558720 145867 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 11.02 11.55 1.3% Negligible No exceedance Tonbridge
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 84 Air Quality Evidence Base
Receptor name National grid Hei Type Total NO2 Chan Impact Exceedance of reference ght (µg/m3) ge as description objective in (m) % of (IAQM criteria) DS? X Y DM DS AQO 13 1C High Street Tonbridge 558880 146157 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge 15.25 16.63 3.5% Negligible No exceedance High Street AQMA) 14 27A High Street Tonbridge 558937 146257 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge 17.51 19.25 4.4% Negligible No exceedance High Street AQMA) 15 55 Sevenoaks Road Borough 560568 157328 1.5 Existing (Borough 14.14 10.29 -9.6% Slight beneficial No exceedance Green Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 16 45 Sevenoaks Road Borough 560605 157318 1.5 Existing (Borough 18.54 11.83 -16.8% Moderate No exceedance Green Sevenoaks Green AQMA) beneficial 17 Rose Cottage 56 Sevenoaks 560631 157332 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 15.90 11.31 -11.5% Moderate No exceedance Road Borough Green beneficial 18 Bildory 61 Western Road 560673 157342 1.5 Existing (Borough 11.24 9.60 -4.1% Negligible No exceedance Borough Green Green AQMA) 19 19 Sevenoaks Road Borough 560730 157250 1.5 Existing (Borough 15.52 11.16 -10.9% Moderate No exceedance Green Sevenoaks Green AQMA) beneficial 20 1A Sevenoaks Road Borough 560792 157231 4.5 Existing (Borough 12.53 10.86 -4.2% Negligible No exceedance Green Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 21 2 Maidstone Road Borough 560809 157226 1.5 Existing (Borough 17.32 13.06 -10.7% Moderate No exceedance Green Sevenoaks Green AQMA) beneficial 22 1 Western Road Borough 560914 157355 4.5 Existing (Borough 10.09 9.51 -1.5% Negligible No exceedance Green Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 23 58 High Street Borough Green 560939 157363 1.5 Existing (Borough 11.94 10.67 -3.2% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 24 Wrotham School 1 561098 158377 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 11.87 11.96 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 25 Borough Green Gardens Phase 561197 157991 1.5 Strategic site 11.54 No exceedance 1A 26 Borough Green Gardens Phase 561909 158251 1.5 Strategic site 15.44 No exceedance 1B 27 North of Kings Hill 568044 156553 1.5 Strategic site 9.42 No exceedance 28 Rathshan 21 Windmill Lane 568133 156851 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 9.96 10.12 0.4% Negligible No exceedance East West Malling 29 186E Tonbridge Road 569195 153490 1.5 Existing (Wateringbury 30.07 31.35 3.2% Slight adverse No exceedance Wateringbury AQMA) 30 Flat 1 789 London Road 570288 158311 1.5 Existing (Larkfield 17.80 18.73 2.3% Negligible No exceedance Larkfield Aylesford AQMA) 31 15 Cygnet Close Larkfield 570315 158955 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 16.56 16.76 0.5% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 85 Air Quality Evidence Base
Receptor name National grid Hei Type Total NO2 Chan Impact Exceedance of reference ght (µg/m3) ge as description objective in (m) % of (IAQM criteria) DS? X Y DM DS AQO 32 200 New Hythe Lane Larkfield 570390 159026 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 20.62 20.97 0.9% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford 33 578 London Road Ditton 571029 158477 1.5 Existing (Larkfield 22.03 22.99 2.4% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford AQMA) 34 2 New Road Ditton 571247 158374 1.5 Existing (Ditton AQMA) 18.97 19.49 1.3% Negligible No exceedance 35 110 Station Road Aylesford 571749 158693 3.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 20.29 20.51 0.6% Negligible No exceedance 36 170 Station Road 571961 158662 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 27.40 27.87 1.2% Negligible No exceedance 37 290 London Road 572427 157932 0.5 Existing (Aylesford 20.39 21.58 3.0% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 38 26 Hall Road Aylesford 572462 158053 1.5 Existing (Aylesford 18.90 19.24 0.9% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 39 West of Hermitage Lane 572744 157506 1.5 Strategic site 16.65 No exceedance 40 322 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 572753 160189 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 10.43 10.81 1.0% Negligible No exceedance 41 Whitepost Wood Lane 572770 157202 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 13.57 14.26 1.7% Negligible No exceedance 42 Bushey Wood 572772 160188 1.5 Strategic site 11.98 No exceedance 43 Whitepost Field 1 572785 157683 1.5 Strategic site 19.52 No exceedance 44 East Malling Research Station 572827 157012 1.5 Strategic site 15.22 No exceedance 45 198 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 572848 160603 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 10.64 11.21 1.4% Negligible No exceedance 46 Barming Depot, Hermitage 572853 156962 1.5 Strategic site 16.97 No exceedance Lane 47 156 London Road Aylesford 572985 157724 1.5 Existing (Aylesford 17.41 21.46 10.1% Moderate No exceedance AQMA) adverse 48 Whitepost Field 2 573000 157700 1.5 Strategic site 20.30 No exceedance 49 10 East Park Road Aylesford 573237 158004 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 20.11 21.52 3.5% Negligible No exceedance 50 3 Culand Cottages Pilgrims 573352 161241 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 11.71 12.00 0.7% Negligible No exceedance Way Burham Rochester 51 Staff Accommodation at Poppy 573577 157566 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 13.19 13.43 0.6% Negligible No exceedance Fields Pub 52 Whitepost Field 3 573617 157478 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 16.15 16.50 0.9% Negligible No exceedance 53 The Orchards Maidstone 573713 157364 1.5 Existing (Maidstone 14.60 14.86 0.6% Negligible No exceedance Town AQMA) 54 Morningside 33 Old Chatham 574842 160733 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 18.58 19.47 2.2% Negligible No exceedance Road Aylesford 55 Managers Flat Lower Bell 201 574850 160658 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 15.61 16.43 2.1% Negligible No exceedance Chatham Road Aylesford
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 86 Air Quality Evidence Base
Notes: (a) Results are presented to two decimal places to indicate the magnitude of change and are not representative of model accuracy b) No ‘DM’ results, % change or IAQM impact description for future receptors as there is no relevant exposure at these sites in the Do-Minimum scenario (c) AQO: air quality objective, as defined in Section 2.2.4. Exceedances of the objective are presented in bold Source: Mott MacDonald
Table 30: Detailed modelled results: Annual mean PM10, 2025
Receptor name National grid Height Type Total PM10 Change Impact Exceedance reference (m) (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO (IAQM criteria) DS? X Y DM DS 5 Upper and Lower Haysden 2 557455 145153 1.5 Strategic site 20.92 No exceedance 6 31 Driffield Gardens Tonbridge 557478 145152 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 20.62 20.69 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 7 Upper and Lower Haysden 1 557866 145599 1.5 Strategic site 19.30 No exceedance 8 Hazelwood Lower Haysden Lane 557880 145616 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 18.88 18.95 0.2% Negligible No exceedance Tonbridge 9 1 Brook Street Tonbridge 558537 145618 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 21.18 21.28 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 10 38 Quarry Hill Road Tonbridge 558642 145749 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 22.73 22.93 0.5% Negligible No exceedance 11 Tonbridge House 36 Quarry Hill Road 558671 145801 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 22.85 23.06 0.5% Negligible No exceedance Tonbridge 12 10A Quarry Hill Parade Tonbridge 558720 145867 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 21.49 21.58 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 13 1C High Street Tonbridge 558880 146157 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge 22.23 22.46 0.6% Negligible No exceedance High Street AQMA) 14 27A High Street Tonbridge 558937 146257 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge 23.01 23.30 0.7% Negligible No exceedance High Street AQMA) 15 55 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560568 157328 1.5 Existing (Borough 24.29 24.37 0.2% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 16 45 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560605 157318 1.5 Existing (Borough 25.87 26.01 0.3% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 17 Rose Cottage 56 Sevenoaks Road 560631 157332 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 25.06 25.16 0.3% Negligible No exceedance Borough Green 18 Bildory 61 Western Road Borough 560673 157342 1.5 Existing (Borough 23.22 23.26 0.1% Negligible No exceedance Green Green AQMA) 19 19 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560730 157250 1.5 Existing (Borough 25.20 25.40 0.5% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 20 1A Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560792 157231 4.5 Existing (Borough 23.58 23.81 0.6% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 21 2 Maidstone Road Borough Green 560809 157226 1.5 Existing (Borough 25.46 25.92 1.1% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA)
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 87 Air Quality Evidence Base
Receptor name National grid Height Type Total PM10 Change Impact Exceedance reference (m) (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO (IAQM criteria) DS? X Y DM DS 22 1 Western Road Borough Green 560914 157355 4.5 Existing (Borough 22.59 22.70 0.3% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 23 58 High Street Borough Green 560939 157363 1.5 Existing (Borough 23.24 23.48 0.6% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 24 Wrotham School 1 561098 158377 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 22.67 22.69 0.1% Negligible No exceedance 25 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1A 561197 157991 1.5 Strategic site 20.85 No exceedance 26 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1B 561909 158251 1.5 Strategic site 23.12 No exceedance 27 North of Kings Hill 568044 156553 1.5 Strategic site 20.11 No exceedance 28 Rathshan 21 Windmill Lane East West 568133 156851 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 20.37 20.39 0.1% Negligible No exceedance Malling 29 186E Tonbridge Road Wateringbury 569195 153490 1.5 Existing (Wateringbury 27.54 27.79 0.6% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 30 Flat 1 789 London Road Larkfield 570288 158311 1.5 Existing (Larkfield 26.76 26.93 0.4% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford AQMA) 31 15 Cygnet Close Larkfield Aylesford 570315 158955 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 25.36 25.38 0.0% Negligible No exceedance 32 200 New Hythe Lane Larkfield 570390 159026 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 25.27 25.29 0.1% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford 33 578 London Road Ditton Aylesford 571029 158477 1.5 Existing (Larkfield 27.64 27.86 0.5% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 34 2 New Road Ditton 571247 158374 1.5 Existing (Ditton AQMA) 26.11 26.21 0.3% Negligible No exceedance 35 110 Station Road Aylesford 571749 158693 3.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 25.50 25.51 0.0% Negligible No exceedance 36 170 Station Road 571961 158662 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 26.95 26.99 0.1% Negligible No exceedance 37 290 London Road 572427 157932 0.5 Existing (Aylesford 24.94 25.18 0.6% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 38 26 Hall Road Aylesford 572462 158053 1.5 Existing (Aylesford 26.64 26.70 0.2% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 39 West of Hermitage Lane 572744 157506 1.5 Strategic site 23.91 No exceedance 40 322 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 572753 160189 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 21.42 21.50 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 41 Whitepost Wood Lane 572770 157202 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 22.72 22.87 0.4% Negligible No exceedance 42 Bushey Wood 572772 160188 1.5 Strategic site 21.92 No exceedance 43 Whitepost Field 1 572785 157683 1.5 Strategic site 24.93 No exceedance 44 East Malling Research Station 572827 157012 1.5 Strategic site 23.36 No exceedance 45 198 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 572848 160603 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 21.56 21.68 0.3% Negligible No exceedance 46 Barming Depot, Hermitage Lane 572853 156962 1.5 Strategic site 24.70 No exceedance
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 88 Air Quality Evidence Base
Receptor name National grid Height Type Total PM10 Change Impact Exceedance reference (m) (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO (IAQM criteria) DS? X Y DM DS 47 156 London Road Aylesford 572985 157724 1.5 Existing (Aylesford 24.59 25.56 2.4% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 48 Whitepost Field 2 573000 157700 1.5 Strategic site 25.04 No exceedance 49 10 East Park Road Aylesford 573237 158004 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 26.46 26.73 0.7% Negligible No exceedance 50 3 Culand Cottages Pilgrims Way 573352 161241 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 21.27 21.33 0.1% Negligible No exceedance Burham Rochester 51 Staff Accommodation at Poppy Fields 573577 157566 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 26.60 26.64 0.1% Negligible No exceedance Pub 52 Whitepost Field 3 573617 157478 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 28.47 28.54 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 53 The Orchards Maidstone 573713 157364 1.5 Existing (Maidstone 27.67 27.72 0.1% Negligible No exceedance Town AQMA) 54 Morningside 33 Old Chatham Road 574842 160733 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 25.10 25.26 0.4% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford 55 Managers Flat Lower Bell 201 574850 160658 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 23.70 23.86 0.4% Negligible No exceedance Chatham Road Aylesford Notes: (a) Results are presented to two decimal places to indicate the magnitude of change and are not representative of model accuracy b) No ‘DM’ results, % change or IAQM impact description for future receptors as there is no relevant exposure at these sites in the Do-Minimum scenario (c) AQO: air quality objective, as defined in Section 2.2.4. Exceedances of the objective are presented in bold Source: Mott MacDonald
Table 31: Detailed modelled results: Annual mean PM10, 2031
Receptor name National grid Height Type Total PM10 Change Impact Exceedance reference (m) (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO (IAQM criteria) DS? X Y DM DS 5 Upper and Lower Haysden 2 557455 145153 1.5 Strategic site 20.88 No exceedance 6 31 Driffield Gardens Tonbridge 557478 145152 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 20.47 20.63 0.4% Negligible No exceedance 7 Upper and Lower Haysden 1 557866 145599 1.5 Strategic site 19.29 No exceedance 8 Hazelwood Lower Haysden Lane Tonbridge 557880 145616 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 18.74 18.87 0.3% Negligible No exceedance 9 1 Brook Street Tonbridge 558537 145618 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 21.05 21.25 0.5% Negligible No exceedance 10 38 Quarry Hill Road Tonbridge 558642 145749 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 22.61 23.05 1.1% Negligible No exceedance 11 Tonbridge House 36 Quarry Hill Road 558671 145801 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 22.73 23.19 1.1% Negligible No exceedance Tonbridge 12 10A Quarry Hill Parade Tonbridge 558720 145867 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 21.38 21.58 0.5% Negligible No exceedance 13 1C High Street Tonbridge 558880 146157 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge 22.12 22.63 1.3% Negligible No exceedance High Street AQMA)
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 89 Air Quality Evidence Base
Receptor name National grid Height Type Total PM10 Change Impact Exceedance reference (m) (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO (IAQM criteria) DS? X Y DM DS 14 27A High Street Tonbridge 558937 146257 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge 22.92 23.57 1.6% Negligible No exceedance High Street AQMA) 15 55 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560568 157328 1.5 Existing (Borough 24.35 22.77 -4.0% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 16 45 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560605 157318 1.5 Existing (Borough 25.90 23.26 -6.6% Slight beneficial No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 17 Rose Cottage 56 Sevenoaks Road 560631 157332 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 25.08 23.13 -4.9% Negligible No exceedance Borough Green 18 Bildory 61 Western Road Borough Green 560673 157342 1.5 Existing (Borough 23.26 22.52 -1.8% Negligible No exceedance Green AQMA) 19 19 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560730 157250 1.5 Existing (Borough 25.26 23.15 -5.3% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 20 1A Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560792 157231 4.5 Existing (Borough 23.64 22.94 -1.7% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 21 2 Maidstone Road Borough Green 560809 157226 1.5 Existing (Borough 25.50 23.81 -4.2% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 22 1 Western Road Borough Green 560914 157355 4.5 Existing (Borough 22.63 22.41 -0.5% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 23 58 High Street Borough Green Sevenoaks 560939 157363 1.5 Existing (Borough 23.27 22.81 -1.2% Negligible No exceedance Green AQMA) 24 Wrotham School 1 561098 158377 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 22.60 22.61 0.0% Negligible No exceedance 25 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1A 561197 157991 1.5 Strategic site 21.14 No exceedance 26 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1B 561909 158251 1.5 Strategic site 23.19 No exceedance 27 North of Kings Hill 568044 156553 1.5 Strategic site 19.98 No exceedance 28 Rathshan 21 Windmill Lane East West 568133 156851 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 20.22 20.28 0.1% Negligible No exceedance Malling 29 186E Tonbridge Road Wateringbury 569195 153490 1.5 Existing (Wateringbury 27.45 28.01 1.4% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 30 Flat 1 789 London Road Larkfield Aylesford 570288 158311 1.5 Existing (Larkfield 26.68 27.07 1.0% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 31 15 Cygnet Close Larkfield Aylesford 570315 158955 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 25.28 25.32 0.1% Negligible No exceedance 32 200 New Hythe Lane Larkfield Aylesford 570390 159026 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 25.19 25.25 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 33 578 London Road Ditton Aylesford 571029 158477 1.5 Existing (Larkfield 27.61 28.10 1.2% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 34 2 New Road Ditton 571247 158374 1.5 Existing (Ditton AQMA) 26.07 26.31 0.6% Negligible No exceedance 35 110 Station Road Aylesford 571749 158693 3.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 25.46 25.50 0.1% Negligible No exceedance
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 90 Air Quality Evidence Base
Receptor name National grid Height Type Total PM10 Change Impact Exceedance reference (m) (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO (IAQM criteria) DS? X Y DM DS 36 170 Station Road 571961 158662 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 26.90 26.99 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 37 290 London Road 572427 157932 0.5 Existing (Aylesford 24.85 25.35 1.3% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 38 26 Hall Road Aylesford 572462 158053 1.5 Existing (Aylesford 26.62 26.75 0.3% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 39 West of Hermitage Lane 572744 157506 1.5 Strategic site 24.13 No exceedance 40 322 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 572753 160189 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 21.34 21.50 0.4% Negligible No exceedance 41 Whitepost Wood Lane 572770 157202 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 22.65 22.98 0.8% Negligible No exceedance 42 Bushey Wood 572772 160188 1.5 Strategic site 22.02 No exceedance 43 Whitepost Field 1 572785 157683 1.5 Strategic site 25.38 No exceedance 44 East Malling Research Station 572827 157012 1.5 Strategic site 23.52 No exceedance 45 198 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 572848 160603 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 21.48 21.73 0.6% Negligible No exceedance 46 Barming Depot, Hermitage Lane 572853 156962 1.5 Strategic site 25.10 No exceedance 47 156 London Road Aylesford 572985 157724 1.5 Existing (Aylesford 24.52 26.66 5.3% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 48 Whitepost Field 2 573000 157700 1.5 Strategic site 25.97 No exceedance 49 10 East Park Road Aylesford 573237 158004 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 26.44 27.03 1.5% Negligible No exceedance 50 3 Culand Cottages Pilgrims Way Burham 573352 161241 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 21.15 21.26 0.3% Negligible No exceedance Rochester 51 Staff Accommodation at Poppy Fields Pub 573577 157566 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 26.85 26.95 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 52 Whitepost Field 3 573617 157478 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 28.73 28.89 0.4% Negligible No exceedance 53 The Orchards Maidstone 573713 157364 1.5 Existing (Maidstone 27.94 28.06 0.3% Negligible No exceedance Town AQMA) 54 Morningside 33 Old Chatham Road 574842 160733 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 24.98 25.34 0.9% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford 55 Managers Flat Lower Bell 201 Chatham 574850 160658 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 23.58 23.91 0.8% Negligible No exceedance Road Aylesford Notes: (a) Results are presented to two decimal places to indicate the magnitude of change and are not representative of model accuracy b) No ‘DM’ results, % change or IAQM impact description for future receptors as there is no relevant exposure at these sites in the Do-Minimum scenario (c) AQO: air quality objective, as defined in Section 2.2.4. Exceedances of the objective are presented in bold Source: Mott MacDonald
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 91 Air Quality Evidence Base
Table 32: Detailed modelled results: Daily PM10, 2025 3 Receptor name National grid Height Type No. days with PM10>50µg/m Exceedance of reference (m) objective in DS? X Y DM DS Change 5 Upper and Lower Haysden 2 557455 145153 1.5 Strategic site 4.62 No exceedance 6 31 Driffield Gardens Tonbridge 557478 145152 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 4.21 4.31 0.10 No exceedance 7 Upper and Lower Haysden 1 557866 145599 1.5 Strategic site 2.60 No exceedance 8 Hazelwood Lower Haysden Lane Tonbridge 557880 145616 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 2.17 2.23 0.06 No exceedance 9 1 Brook Street Tonbridge 558537 145618 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 5.01 5.15 0.14 No exceedance 10 38 Quarry Hill Road Tonbridge 558642 145749 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 7.59 7.97 0.38 No exceedance 11 Tonbridge House 36 Quarry Hill Road 558671 145801 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 7.81 8.21 0.40 No exceedance Tonbridge 12 10A Quarry Hill Parade Tonbridge 558720 145867 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 5.48 5.62 0.14 No exceedance 13 1C High Street Tonbridge 558880 146157 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge High 6.70 7.11 0.40 No exceedance Street AQMA) 14 27A High Street Tonbridge 558937 146257 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge High 8.11 8.68 0.57 No exceedance Street AQMA) 15 55 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560568 157328 1.5 Existing (Borough Green 10.77 10.94 0.17 No exceedance Sevenoaks AQMA) 16 45 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560605 157318 1.5 Existing (Borough Green 14.57 14.94 0.36 No exceedance Sevenoaks AQMA) 17 Rose Cottage 56 Sevenoaks Road Borough 560631 157332 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 12.54 12.79 0.25 No exceedance Green 18 Bildory 61 Western Road Borough Green 560673 157342 1.5 Existing (Borough Green 8.53 8.61 0.08 No exceedance AQMA) 19 19 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560730 157250 1.5 Existing (Borough Green 12.88 13.38 0.49 No exceedance Sevenoaks AQMA) 20 1A Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560792 157231 4.5 Existing (Borough Green 9.25 9.72 0.47 No exceedance Sevenoaks AQMA) 21 2 Maidstone Road Borough Green 560809 157226 1.5 Existing (Borough Green 13.51 14.69 1.18 No exceedance Sevenoaks AQMA) 22 1 Western Road Borough Green Sevenoaks 560914 157355 4.5 Existing (Borough Green 7.34 7.53 0.19 No exceedance AQMA) 23 58 High Street Borough Green Sevenoaks 560939 157363 1.5 Existing (Borough Green 8.57 9.05 0.48 No exceedance AQMA) 24 Wrotham School 1 561098 158377 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 7.47 7.52 0.05 No exceedance 25 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1A 561197 157991 1.5 Strategic site 4.53 No exceedance 26 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1B 561909 158251 1.5 Strategic site 8.33 No exceedance
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 92 Air Quality Evidence Base
3 Receptor name National grid Height Type No. days with PM10>50µg/m Exceedance of reference (m) objective in DS? X Y DM DS Change 27 North of Kings Hill 568044 156553 1.5 Strategic site 3.54 No exceedance 28 Rathshan 21 Windmill Lane East West 568133 156851 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 3.86 3.90 0.04 No exceedance Malling 29 186E Tonbridge Road Wateringbury 569195 153490 1.5 Existing (Wateringbury 19.26 20.04 0.78 No exceedance AQMA) 30 Flat 1 789 London Road Larkfield Aylesford 570288 158311 1.5 Existing (Larkfield AQMA) 16.97 17.47 0.50 No exceedance 31 15 Cygnet Close Larkfield Aylesford 570315 158955 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 13.27 13.32 0.04 No exceedance 32 200 New Hythe Lane Larkfield Aylesford 570390 159026 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 13.04 13.11 0.07 No exceedance 33 578 London Road Ditton Aylesford 571029 158477 1.5 Existing (Larkfield AQMA) 19.58 20.25 0.67 No exceedance 34 2 New Road Ditton 571247 158374 1.5 Existing (Ditton AQMA) 15.19 15.48 0.28 No exceedance 35 110 Station Road Aylesford 571749 158693 3.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 13.61 13.66 0.05 No exceedance 36 170 Station Road 571961 158662 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 17.53 17.65 0.11 No exceedance 37 290 London Road 572427 157932 0.5 Existing (Aylesford AQMA) 12.26 12.82 0.56 No exceedance 38 26 Hall Road Aylesford 572462 158053 1.5 Existing (Aylesford AQMA) 16.63 16.81 0.18 No exceedance 39 West of Hermitage Lane 572744 157506 1.5 Strategic site 9.93 No exceedance 40 322 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 572753 160189 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 5.37 5.49 0.12 No exceedance 41 Whitepost Wood Lane 572770 157202 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 7.57 7.85 0.29 No exceedance 42 Bushey Wood 572772 160188 1.5 Strategic site 6.17 No exceedance 43 Whitepost Field 1 572785 157683 1.5 Strategic site 12.23 No exceedance 44 East Malling Research Station 572827 157012 1.5 Strategic site 8.81 No exceedance 45 198 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 572848 160603 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 5.59 5.78 0.18 No exceedance 46 Barming Depot, Hermitage Lane 572853 156962 1.5 Strategic site 11.68 No exceedance 47 156 London Road Aylesford 572985 157724 1.5 Existing (Aylesford AQMA) 11.43 13.77 2.34 No exceedance 48 Whitepost Field 2 573000 157700 1.5 Strategic site 12.48 No exceedance 49 10 East Park Road Aylesford 573237 158004 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 16.13 16.90 0.77 No exceedance 50 3 Culand Cottages Pilgrims Way Burham 573352 161241 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 5.14 5.22 0.08 No exceedance Rochester 51 Staff Accommodation at Poppy Fields Pub 573577 157566 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 16.52 16.65 0.13 No exceedance 52 Whitepost Field 3 573617 157478 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 22.19 22.43 0.24 No exceedance 53 The Orchards Maidstone 573713 157364 1.5 Existing (Maidstone Town 19.66 19.83 0.17 No exceedance AQMA) 54 Morningside 33 Old Chatham Road 574842 160733 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 12.63 13.03 0.39 No exceedance Aylesford
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 93 Air Quality Evidence Base
3 Receptor name National grid Height Type No. days with PM10>50µg/m Exceedance of reference (m) objective in DS? X Y DM DS Change 55 Managers Flat Lower Bell 201 Chatham 574850 160658 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 9.50 9.82 0.32 No exceedance Road Aylesford Notes: (a) Results are presented to two decimal places to indicate the magnitude of change and are not representative of model accuracy b) No ‘DM’ results, % change or IAQM impact description for future receptors as there is no relevant exposure at these sites in the Do-Minimum scenario (c) AQO: air quality objective, as defined in Section 2.2.4. Exceedances of the objective are presented in bold
Table 33: Detailed modelled results: Daily PM10, 2031 3 Receptor name National grid Height Type No. days with PM10>50µg/m Exceedance of reference (m) objective in DS? X Y DM DS Change 5 Upper and Lower Haysden 2 557455 145153 1.5 Strategic site 4.56 No exceedance 6 31 Driffield Gardens Tonbridge 557478 145152 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 4.01 4.21 0.20 No exceedance 7 Upper and Lower Haysden 1 557866 145599 1.5 Strategic site 2.58 No exceedance 8 Hazelwood Lower Haysden Lane Tonbridge 557880 145616 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 2.03 2.16 0.13 No exceedance 9 1 Brook Street Tonbridge 558537 145618 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 4.81 5.11 0.30 No exceedance 10 38 Quarry Hill Road Tonbridge 558642 145749 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 7.38 8.20 0.82 No exceedance 11 Tonbridge House 36 Quarry Hill Road 558671 145801 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 7.59 8.47 0.87 No exceedance Tonbridge 12 10A Quarry Hill Parade Tonbridge 558720 145867 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 5.31 5.61 0.31 No exceedance 13 1C High Street Tonbridge 558880 146157 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge High 6.51 7.41 0.90 No exceedance Street AQMA) 14 27A High Street Tonbridge 558937 146257 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge High 7.94 9.22 1.28 No exceedance Street AQMA) 15 55 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560568 157328 1.5 Existing (Borough Green 10.91 7.66 -3.24 No exceedance Sevenoaks AQMA) 16 45 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560605 157318 1.5 Existing (Borough Green 14.65 8.60 -6.06 No exceedance Sevenoaks AQMA) 17 Rose Cottage 56 Sevenoaks Road Borough 560631 157332 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 12.59 8.35 -4.24 No exceedance Green 18 Bildory 61 Western Road Borough Green 560673 157342 1.5 Existing (Borough Green 8.60 7.22 -1.38 No exceedance AQMA) 19 19 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560730 157250 1.5 Existing (Borough Green 13.04 8.39 -4.65 No exceedance Sevenoaks AQMA) 20 1A Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560792 157231 4.5 Existing (Borough Green 9.37 7.99 -1.37 No exceedance Sevenoaks AQMA)
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 94 Air Quality Evidence Base
3 Receptor name National grid Height Type No. days with PM10>50µg/m Exceedance of reference (m) objective in DS? X Y DM DS Change 21 2 Maidstone Road Borough Green 560809 157226 1.5 Existing (Borough Green 13.63 9.72 -3.91 No exceedance Sevenoaks AQMA) 22 1 Western Road Borough Green Sevenoaks 560914 157355 4.5 Existing (Borough Green 7.41 7.02 -0.39 No exceedance AQMA) 23 58 High Street Borough Green Sevenoaks 560939 157363 1.5 Existing (Borough Green 8.62 7.73 -0.88 No exceedance AQMA) 24 Wrotham School 1 561098 158377 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 7.35 7.37 0.02 No exceedance 25 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1A 561197 157991 1.5 Strategic site 4.94 No exceedance 26 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1B 561909 158251 1.5 Strategic site 8.47 No exceedance 27 North of Kings Hill 568044 156553 1.5 Strategic site 3.38 No exceedance 28 Rathshan 21 Windmill Lane East West 568133 156851 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 3.68 3.75 0.08 No exceedance Malling 29 186E Tonbridge Road Wateringbury 569195 153490 1.5 Existing (Wateringbury 19.00 20.73 1.73 No exceedance AQMA) 30 Flat 1 789 London Road Larkfield Aylesford 570288 158311 1.5 Existing (Larkfield AQMA) 16.76 17.86 1.10 No exceedance 31 15 Cygnet Close Larkfield Aylesford 570315 158955 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 13.08 13.18 0.10 No exceedance 32 200 New Hythe Lane Larkfield Aylesford 570390 159026 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 12.85 13.01 0.16 No exceedance 33 578 London Road Ditton Aylesford 571029 158477 1.5 Existing (Larkfield AQMA) 19.49 20.99 1.50 No exceedance 34 2 New Road Ditton 571247 158374 1.5 Existing (Ditton AQMA) 15.10 15.73 0.63 No exceedance 35 110 Station Road Aylesford 571749 158693 3.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 13.52 13.62 0.10 No exceedance 36 170 Station Road 571961 158662 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 17.39 17.64 0.25 No exceedance 37 290 London Road 572427 157932 0.5 Existing (Aylesford AQMA) 12.04 13.26 1.21 No exceedance 38 26 Hall Road Aylesford 572462 158053 1.5 Existing (Aylesford AQMA) 16.58 16.97 0.39 No exceedance 39 West of Hermitage Lane 572744 157506 1.5 Strategic site 10.42 No exceedance 40 322 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 572753 160189 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 5.24 5.49 0.25 No exceedance 41 Whitepost Wood Lane 572770 157202 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 7.44 8.06 0.62 No exceedance 42 Bushey Wood 572772 160188 1.5 Strategic site 6.34 No exceedance 43 Whitepost Field 1 572785 157683 1.5 Strategic site 13.33 No exceedance 44 East Malling Research Station 572827 157012 1.5 Strategic site 9.12 No exceedance 45 198 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 572848 160603 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 5.46 5.86 0.40 No exceedance 46 Barming Depot, Hermitage Lane 572853 156962 1.5 Strategic site 12.64 No exceedance 47 156 London Road Aylesford 572985 157724 1.5 Existing (Aylesford AQMA) 11.28 16.69 5.41 No exceedance 48 Whitepost Field 2 573000 157700 1.5 Strategic site 14.84 No exceedance
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 95 Air Quality Evidence Base
3 Receptor name National grid Height Type No. days with PM10>50µg/m Exceedance of reference (m) objective in DS? X Y DM DS Change 49 10 East Park Road Aylesford 573237 158004 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 16.09 17.77 1.68 No exceedance 50 3 Culand Cottages Pilgrims Way Burham 573352 161241 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 4.95 5.12 0.17 No exceedance Rochester 51 Staff Accommodation at Poppy Fields Pub 573577 157566 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 17.24 17.52 0.28 No exceedance 52 Whitepost Field 3 573617 157478 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 23.06 23.60 0.54 No exceedance 53 The Orchards Maidstone 573713 157364 1.5 Existing (Maidstone Town 20.50 20.87 0.37 No exceedance AQMA) 54 Morningside 33 Old Chatham Road 574842 160733 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 12.36 13.22 0.86 No exceedance Aylesford 55 Managers Flat Lower Bell 201 Chatham 574850 160658 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 9.25 9.93 0.69 No exceedance Road Aylesford Notes: (a) Results are presented to two decimal places to indicate the magnitude of change and are not representative of model accuracy b) No ‘DM’ results, % change or IAQM impact description for future receptors as there is no relevant exposure at these sites in the Do-Minimum scenario (c) AQO: air quality objective, as defined in Section 2.2.4. Exceedances of the objective are presented in bold Source: Mott MacDonald
Table 34: Detailed modelled results: Annual mean PM2.5, 2025
Receptor name National grid Height Type Total PM2.5 Change Adverse impact Exceedance reference (m) (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO (IAQM criteria) DS? X Y DM DS 5 Upper and Lower Haysden 2 557455 145153 1.5 Strategic site 13.78 No exceedance 6 31 Driffield Gardens Tonbridge 557478 145152 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 13.61 13.65 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 7 Upper and Lower Haysden 1 557866 145599 1.5 Strategic site 12.90 No exceedance 8 Hazelwood Lower Haysden Lane 557880 145616 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 12.66 12.70 0.1% Negligible No exceedance Tonbridge 9 1 Brook Street Tonbridge 558537 145618 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 14.48 14.53 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 10 38 Quarry Hill Road Tonbridge 558642 145749 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 15.33 15.44 0.4% Negligible No exceedance 11 Tonbridge House 36 Quarry Hill Road 558671 145801 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 15.39 15.51 0.5% Negligible No exceedance Tonbridge 12 10A Quarry Hill Parade Tonbridge 558720 145867 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 14.65 14.70 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 13 1C High Street Tonbridge 558880 146157 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge 15.25 15.38 0.5% Negligible No exceedance High Street AQMA) 14 27A High Street Tonbridge 558937 146257 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge 15.68 15.84 0.6% Negligible No exceedance High Street AQMA)
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 96 Air Quality Evidence Base
Receptor name National grid Height Type Total PM2.5 Change Adverse impact Exceedance reference (m) (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO (IAQM criteria) DS? X Y DM DS 15 55 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560568 157328 1.5 Existing (Borough 14.75 14.80 0.2% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 16 45 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560605 157318 1.5 Existing (Borough 15.63 15.71 0.3% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 17 Rose Cottage 56 Sevenoaks Road 560631 157332 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 15.18 15.23 0.2% Negligible No exceedance Borough Green 18 Bildory 61 Western Road Borough 560673 157342 1.5 Existing (Borough 14.16 14.18 0.1% Negligible No exceedance Green Green AQMA) 19 19 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560730 157250 1.5 Existing (Borough 15.24 15.35 0.4% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 20 1A Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560792 157231 4.5 Existing (Borough 14.36 14.49 0.5% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 21 2 Maidstone Road Borough Green 560809 157226 1.5 Existing (Borough 15.40 15.65 1.0% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 22 1 Western Road Borough Green 560914 157355 4.5 Existing (Borough 13.82 13.88 0.2% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 23 58 High Street Borough Green 560939 157363 1.5 Existing (Borough 14.18 14.31 0.5% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 24 Wrotham School 1 561098 158377 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 14.27 14.29 0.1% Negligible No exceedance 25 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1A 561197 157991 1.5 Strategic site 13.52 No exceedance 26 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1B 561909 158251 1.5 Strategic site 14.56 No exceedance 27 North of Kings Hill 568044 156553 1.5 Strategic site 13.71 No exceedance 28 Rathshan 21 Windmill Lane East West 568133 156851 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 13.85 13.86 0.1% Negligible No exceedance Malling 29 186E Tonbridge Road Wateringbury 569195 153490 1.5 Existing (Wateringbury 17.61 17.75 0.6% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 30 Flat 1 789 London Road Larkfield 570288 158311 1.5 Existing (Larkfield 17.43 17.53 0.4% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford AQMA) 31 15 Cygnet Close Larkfield Aylesford 570315 158955 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 16.71 16.72 0.0% Negligible No exceedance 32 200 New Hythe Lane Larkfield 570390 159026 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 16.70 16.72 0.1% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford 33 578 London Road Ditton Aylesford 571029 158477 1.5 Existing (Larkfield 17.68 17.80 0.5% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 34 2 New Road Ditton 571247 158374 1.5 Existing (Ditton AQMA) 16.85 16.90 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 35 110 Station Road Aylesford 571749 158693 3.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 16.57 16.58 0.0% Negligible No exceedance 36 170 Station Road 571961 158662 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 17.46 17.49 0.1% Negligible No exceedance
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 97 Air Quality Evidence Base
Receptor name National grid Height Type Total PM2.5 Change Adverse impact Exceedance reference (m) (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO (IAQM criteria) DS? X Y DM DS 37 290 London Road 572427 157932 0.5 Existing (Aylesford 15.92 16.05 0.5% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 38 26 Hall Road Aylesford 572462 158053 1.5 Existing (Aylesford 16.92 16.96 0.1% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 39 West of Hermitage Lane 572744 157506 1.5 Strategic site 15.32 No exceedance 40 322 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 572753 160189 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 14.24 14.28 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 41 Whitepost Wood Lane 572770 157202 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 14.66 14.75 0.3% Negligible No exceedance 42 Bushey Wood 572772 160188 1.5 Strategic site 14.51 No exceedance 43 Whitepost Field 1 572785 157683 1.5 Strategic site 15.88 No exceedance 44 East Malling Research Station 572827 157012 1.5 Strategic site 15.01 No exceedance 45 198 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 572848 160603 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 14.31 14.38 0.3% Negligible No exceedance 46 Barming Depot, Hermitage Lane 572853 156962 1.5 Strategic site 15.42 No exceedance 47 156 London Road Aylesford 572985 157724 1.5 Existing (Aylesford 15.69 16.22 2.1% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 48 Whitepost Field 2 573000 157700 1.5 Strategic site 15.94 No exceedance 49 10 East Park Road Aylesford 573237 158004 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 16.49 16.65 0.6% Negligible No exceedance 50 3 Culand Cottages Pilgrims Way 573352 161241 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 14.11 14.14 0.1% Negligible No exceedance Burham Rochester 51 Staff Accommodation at Poppy Fields 573577 157566 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 14.88 14.91 0.1% Negligible No exceedance Pub 52 Whitepost Field 3 573617 157478 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 15.89 15.93 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 53 The Orchards Maidstone 573713 157364 1.5 Existing (Maidstone 15.46 15.49 0.1% Negligible No exceedance Town AQMA) 54 Morningside 33 Old Chatham Road 574842 160733 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 16.07 16.16 0.4% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford 55 Managers Flat Lower Bell 201 574850 160658 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 15.32 15.40 0.3% Negligible No exceedance Chatham Road Aylesford Notes: (a) Results are presented to two decimal places to indicate the magnitude of change and are not representative of model accuracy b) No ‘DM’ results, % change or IAQM impact description for future receptors as there is no relevant exposure at these sites in the Do-Minimum scenario (c) AQO: air quality objective, as defined in Section 2.2.4. Exceedances of the objective are presented in bold Source: Mott MacDonald
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 98 Air Quality Evidence Base
Table 35: Detailed modelled results: Annual mean PM2.5, 2031
Receptor name National grid Height Type Total PM2.5 Change Adverse impact Exceedance reference (m) (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO (IAQM criteria) DS? X Y DM DS 5 Upper and Lower Haysden 2 557455 145153 1.5 Strategic site 13.67 No exceedance 6 31 Driffield Gardens Tonbridge 557478 145152 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 13.45 13.54 0.3% Negligible No exceedance 7 Upper and Lower Haysden 1 557866 145599 1.5 Strategic site 12.81 No exceedance 8 Hazelwood Lower Haysden Lane 557880 145616 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 12.51 12.58 0.3% Negligible No exceedance Tonbridge 9 1 Brook Street Tonbridge 558537 145618 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 14.32 14.43 0.4% Negligible No exceedance 10 38 Quarry Hill Road Tonbridge 558642 145749 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 15.17 15.41 1.0% Negligible No exceedance 11 Tonbridge House 36 Quarry Hill Road 558671 145801 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 15.24 15.49 1.0% Negligible No exceedance Tonbridge 12 10A Quarry Hill Parade Tonbridge 558720 145867 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 14.50 14.61 0.4% Negligible No exceedance 13 1C High Street Tonbridge 558880 146157 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge 15.10 15.38 1.1% Negligible No exceedance High Street AQMA) 14 27A High Street Tonbridge 558937 146257 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge 15.54 15.89 1.4% Negligible No exceedance High Street AQMA) 15 55 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560568 157328 1.5 Existing (Borough 14.62 13.76 -3.5% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 16 45 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560605 157318 1.5 Existing (Borough 15.48 14.03 -5.8% Slight beneficial No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 17 Rose Cottage 56 Sevenoaks Road 560631 157332 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 15.02 13.96 -4.2% Negligible No exceedance Borough Green 18 Bildory 61 Western Road Borough 560673 157342 1.5 Existing (Borough 14.02 13.62 -1.6% Negligible No exceedance Green Green AQMA) 19 19 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560730 157250 1.5 Existing (Borough 15.11 13.97 -4.6% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 20 1A Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560792 157231 4.5 Existing (Borough 14.23 13.86 -1.5% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 21 2 Maidstone Road Borough Green 560809 157226 1.5 Existing (Borough 15.26 14.33 -3.7% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 22 1 Western Road Borough Green 560914 157355 4.5 Existing (Borough 13.68 13.57 -0.5% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 23 58 High Street Borough Green 560939 157363 1.5 Existing (Borough 14.03 13.78 -1.0% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 24 Wrotham School 1 561098 158377 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 14.13 14.14 0.0% Negligible No exceedance 25 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1A 561197 157991 1.5 Strategic site 13.56 No exceedance
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 99 Air Quality Evidence Base
Receptor name National grid Height Type Total PM2.5 Change Adverse impact Exceedance reference (m) (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO (IAQM criteria) DS? X Y DM DS 26 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1B 561909 158251 1.5 Strategic site 14.49 No exceedance 27 North of Kings Hill 568044 156553 1.5 Strategic site 13.56 No exceedance 28 Rathshan 21 Windmill Lane East West 568133 156851 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 13.68 13.72 0.1% Negligible No exceedance Malling 29 186E Tonbridge Road Wateringbury 569195 153490 1.5 Existing (Wateringbury 17.44 17.75 1.2% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 30 Flat 1 789 London Road Larkfield 570288 158311 1.5 Existing (Larkfield 17.28 17.49 0.8% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford AQMA) 31 15 Cygnet Close Larkfield Aylesford 570315 158955 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 16.56 16.59 0.1% Negligible No exceedance 32 200 New Hythe Lane Larkfield 570390 159026 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 16.55 16.59 0.2% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford 33 578 London Road Ditton Aylesford 571029 158477 1.5 Existing (Larkfield 17.54 17.80 1.1% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 34 2 New Road Ditton 571247 158374 1.5 Existing (Ditton AQMA) 16.71 16.84 0.5% Negligible No exceedance 35 110 Station Road Aylesford 571749 158693 3.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 16.43 16.46 0.1% Negligible No exceedance 36 170 Station Road 571961 158662 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 17.31 17.37 0.2% Negligible No exceedance 37 290 London Road 572427 157932 0.5 Existing (Aylesford 15.74 16.01 1.1% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 38 26 Hall Road Aylesford 572462 158053 1.5 Existing (Aylesford 16.78 16.86 0.3% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 39 West of Hermitage Lane 572744 157506 1.5 Strategic site 15.32 No exceedance 40 322 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 572753 160189 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 14.06 14.15 0.4% Negligible No exceedance 41 Whitepost Wood Lane 572770 157202 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 14.51 14.69 0.7% Negligible No exceedance 42 Bushey Wood 572772 160188 1.5 Strategic site 14.44 No exceedance 43 Whitepost Field 1 572785 157683 1.5 Strategic site 16.00 No exceedance 44 East Malling Research Station 572827 157012 1.5 Strategic site 14.98 No exceedance 45 198 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 572848 160603 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 14.14 14.28 0.5% Negligible No exceedance 46 Barming Depot, Hermitage Lane 572853 156962 1.5 Strategic site 15.50 No exceedance 47 156 London Road Aylesford 572985 157724 1.5 Existing (Aylesford 15.53 16.69 4.6% Negligible No exceedance AQMA) 48 Whitepost Field 2 573000 157700 1.5 Strategic site 16.32 No exceedance 49 10 East Park Road Aylesford 573237 158004 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 16.35 16.67 1.3% Negligible No exceedance 50 3 Culand Cottages Pilgrims Way 573352 161241 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 13.94 14.00 0.2% Negligible No exceedance Burham Rochester
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 100 Air Quality Evidence Base
Receptor name National grid Height Type Total PM2.5 Change Adverse impact Exceedance reference (m) (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO (IAQM criteria) DS? X Y DM DS 51 Staff Accommodation at Poppy Fields 573577 157566 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 14.76 14.81 0.2% Negligible No exceedance Pub 52 Whitepost Field 3 573617 157478 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 15.77 15.86 0.4% Negligible No exceedance 53 The Orchards Maidstone 573713 157364 1.5 Existing (Maidstone 15.34 15.40 0.3% Negligible No exceedance Town AQMA) 54 Morningside 33 Old Chatham Road 574842 160733 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 15.89 16.08 0.8% Negligible No exceedance Aylesford 55 Managers Flat Lower Bell 201 574850 160658 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 15.14 15.32 0.7% Negligible No exceedance Chatham Road Aylesford Notes: (a) Results are presented to two decimal places to indicate the magnitude of change and are not representative of model accuracy b) No ‘DM’ results, % change or IAQM impact description for future receptors as there is no relevant exposure at these sites in the Do-Minimum scenario (c) AQO: air quality objective, as defined in Section 2.2.4. Exceedances of the objective are presented in bold Source: Mott MacDonald
391898 | 1 | C | 5 June 2018 https://mottmac.sharepoint.com/teams/pj-b6595/do/Develop/Deliverables/Rev C/TMBC-LocalPlan-AirQualityEvidenceBase-RevC_clean.docx
Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 101 Air Quality Evidence Base
G. Sensitivity analysis
G.1 Overview This appendix presents the results of a sensitivity analysis which was undertaken to determine the sensitivity of modelled results to assumed reductions in future year Defra emission factors and background concentrations. Predicted concentrations of NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 have been modelled using traffic data from 2031 (DM and DS), with Defra emission factors and projected background concentrations from 2020 (the first anticipated year of opening for the Local Plan strategic development). The sensitivity analysis thus considers what the impacts of the full development would be if there was no improvement in vehicle emissions or background pollutant concentrations between 2020 and 2031. The sensitivity analysis is therefore highly conservative, as both vehicle emissions and background concentrations are expected to improve in future years (the uncertainty lies in the magnitude of this improvement).
G.2 Sensitivity results
G.2.1 Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations
The results for the sensitivity analysis for annual mean NO2 are presented in Table 36.
Out of the 51 modelled receptors included in the assessment, three receptors are predicted to have a ‘substantial adverse’ impact, five are predicted to have a ‘moderate adverse’ impact, seven are predicted to have a ‘slight adverse’ impact, two are predicted to have a ‘slight beneficial’ impact, six are predicted to have a ‘moderate beneficial’ impact and 17 are predicted to have ‘negligible’ impacts. The remaining 11 receptors represent future proposed strategic sites (with no receptors present in the DM scenario) and are therefore not assessed using the IAQM criteria.
Of the three ‘substantial adverse’ receptors, two experience an exceedance of the annual mean NO2 objective in the sensitivity analysis, however these exceedances are predicted in both the DM and DS scenarios and are therefore not attributed to the impact of the Local Plan. The 3 Wateringbury AQMA receptor has a predicted annual mean NO2 greater than 60µg/m in the DS scenario and therefore could be at risk of exceedances of the short term NO2 objective. The increase at this receptor is predicted to be 5.9% of the annual mean NO2 objective. Concentrations at all other receptors, including other AQMAs and the proposed strategic sites, are predicted to be below the objective.
The eight ‘beneficial’ receptors are located in the Borough Green area, and are expected to be affected by the diversion of traffic to the proposed Borough Green relief road.
Overall, considering the above analysis and the extent of predicted impacts across all modelled receptors, the sensitivity analysis impacts are considered to be not significant.
G.2.2 Particulate matter
Results for annual mean PM10 and PM2.5, and daily PM10 in the sensitivity analysis are ‘slight beneficial’ at one receptor in the Borough Green area, due to the expected diversion of traffic to the proposed relief road. Impacts are expected to be ‘negligible’ at all other existing receptors, and well below the objective values at all modelled receptors, including the strategic sites. Results for PM10 and PM2.5 are therefore not presented in detail in this report.
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 102 Air Quality Evidence Base
G.3 Summary The results from the sensitivity analysis demonstrate that when assuming there will be no future improvement in emission factors or background concentrations, the overall impacts from the proposed strategic development will not be significant.
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 103 Air Quality Evidence Base
Table 36: Detailed modelled results: Annual mean NO2, sensitivity test (2031 traffic data with 2020 emission factors and background concentrations)
Receptor name National grid Height Type Total NO2 Change Impact Exceedance reference (m) (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO (IAQM criteria) DS? X Y DM DS
5 Upper and Lower Haysden 2 557455 145153 1.5 Strategic site 25.65 No exceedance 6 31 Driffield Gardens Tonbridge 557478 145152 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 23.96 24.70 1.9% Negligible No exceedance 7 Upper and Lower Haysden 1 557866 145599 1.5 Strategic site 15.90 No exceedance 8 Hazelwood Lower Haysden Lane 557880 145616 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 12.90 13.62 1.8% Negligible No exceedance Tonbridge 9 1 Brook Street Tonbridge 558537 145618 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 15.70 16.91 3.0% Negligible No exceedance 10 38 Quarry Hill Road Tonbridge 558642 145749 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 23.62 25.82 5.5% Slight adverse No exceedance 11 Tonbridge House 36 Quarry Hill Road 558671 145801 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 24.36 26.68 5.8% Slight adverse No exceedance Tonbridge 12 10A Quarry Hill Parade Tonbridge 558720 145867 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 17.73 18.88 2.9% Negligible No exceedance 13 1C High Street Tonbridge 558880 146157 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge 27.51 30.31 7.0% Moderate adverse No exceedance High Street AQMA) 14 27A High Street Tonbridge 558937 146257 4.5 Existing (Tonbridge 32.19 35.59 8.5% Moderate adverse No exceedance High Street AQMA) 15 55 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560568 157328 1.5 Existing (Borough 24.56 16.06 -21.3% Moderate No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) beneficial 16 45 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560605 157318 1.5 Existing (Borough 35.22 19.90 -38.3% Moderate No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) beneficial 17 Rose Cottage 56 Sevenoaks Road 560631 157332 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 29.55 18.62 -27.3% Moderate No exceedance Borough Green beneficial 18 Bildory 61 Western Road Borough 560673 157342 1.5 Existing (Borough 18.53 14.49 -10.1% Moderate No exceedance Green Green AQMA) beneficial 19 19 Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560730 157250 1.5 Existing (Borough 28.02 18.16 -24.7% Moderate No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) beneficial 20 1A Sevenoaks Road Borough Green 560792 157231 4.5 Existing (Borough 21.11 17.33 -9.5% Slight beneficial No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 21 2 Maidstone Road Borough Green 560809 157226 1.5 Existing (Borough 32.02 22.60 -23.6% Moderate No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) beneficial 22 1 Western Road Borough Green 560914 157355 4.5 Existing (Borough 15.65 14.26 -3.5% Negligible No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 23 58 High Street Borough Green 560939 157363 1.5 Existing (Borough 20.20 17.09 -7.8% Slight beneficial No exceedance Sevenoaks Green AQMA) 24 Wrotham School 1 561098 158377 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 19.34 19.53 0.5% Negligible No exceedance
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 104 Air Quality Evidence Base
Receptor name National grid Height Type Total NO2 Change Impact Exceedance reference (m) (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO (IAQM criteria) DS? X Y DM DS 25 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1A 561197 157991 1.5 Strategic site 19.05 No exceedance 26 Borough Green Gardens Phase 1B 561909 158251 1.5 Strategic site 26.93 No exceedance 27 North of Kings Hill 568044 156553 1.5 Strategic site 14.57 No exceedance 28 Rathshan 21 Windmill Lane East West 568133 156851 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 15.79 16.16 0.9% Negligible No exceedance Malling 29 186E Tonbridge Road Wateringbury 569195 153490 1.5 Existing (Wateringbury 58.57 60.93 5.9% Substantial Existing AQMA) adverse Exceedance 30 Flat 1 789 London Road Larkfield 570288 158311 1.5 Existing (Larkfield 31.17 33.11 4.8% Slight adverse No exceedance Aylesford AQMA) 31 15 Cygnet Close Larkfield Aylesford 570315 158955 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 27.80 28.22 1.1% Negligible No exceedance 32 200 New Hythe Lane Larkfield 570390 159026 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 35.96 36.65 1.7% Slight adverse No exceedance Aylesford 33 578 London Road Ditton Aylesford 571029 158477 1.5 Existing (Larkfield 37.00 38.90 4.8% Moderate adverse No exceedance AQMA) 34 2 New Road Ditton 571247 158374 1.5 Existing (Ditton AQMA) 30.30 31.35 2.6% Slight adverse No exceedance 35 110 Station Road Aylesford 571749 158693 3.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 32.60 33.04 1.1% Negligible No exceedance 36 170 Station Road 571961 158662 1.5 Existing (M20 AQMA) 47.49 48.38 2.2% Substantial Existing adverse Exceedance 37 290 London Road 572427 157932 0.5 Existing (Aylesford 37.58 39.97 6.0% Moderate adverse No exceedance AQMA) 38 26 Hall Road Aylesford 572462 158053 1.5 Existing (Aylesford 32.26 33.00 1.9% Slight adverse No exceedance AQMA) 39 West of Hermitage Lane 572744 157506 1.5 Strategic site 28.37 No exceedance 40 322 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 572753 160189 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 15.24 16.10 2.2% Negligible No exceedance 41 Whitepost Wood Lane 572770 157202 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 21.62 23.11 3.7% Negligible No exceedance 42 Bushey Wood 572772 160188 1.5 Strategic site 18.71 No exceedance 43 Whitepost Field 1 572785 157683 1.5 Strategic site 34.78 No exceedance 44 East Malling Research Station 572827 157012 1.5 Strategic site 25.26 No exceedance 45 198 Bull Lane Eccles Aylesford 572848 160603 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 15.74 16.98 3.1% Negligible No exceedance 46 Barming Depot, Hermitage Lane 572853 156962 1.5 Strategic site 30.12 No exceedance 47 156 London Road Aylesford 572985 157724 1.5 Existing (Aylesford 30.65 38.74 20.2% Substantial No exceedance AQMA) adverse 48 Whitepost Field 2 573000 157700 1.5 Strategic site 36.02 No exceedance 49 10 East Park Road Aylesford 573237 158004 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 35.02 38.01 7.5% Moderate adverse No exceedance
391898 | 1 | C | 5 June 2018 https://mottmac.sharepoint.com/teams/pj-b6595/do/Develop/Deliverables/Rev C/TMBC-LocalPlan-AirQualityEvidenceBase-RevC_clean.docx
Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 105 Air Quality Evidence Base
Receptor name National grid Height Type Total NO2 Change Impact Exceedance reference (m) (µg/m3) as % of description of objective in AQO (IAQM criteria) DS? X Y DM DS 50 3 Culand Cottages Pilgrims Way 573352 161241 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 18.65 19.30 1.6% Negligible No exceedance Burham Rochester 51 Staff Accommodation at Poppy Fields 573577 157566 4.5 Existing (non AQMA) 22.03 22.57 1.4% Negligible No exceedance Pub 52 Whitepost Field 3 573617 157478 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 28.50 29.22 1.8% Negligible No exceedance 53 The Orchards Maidstone 573713 157364 1.5 Existing (Maidstone 25.00 25.54 1.4% Negligible No exceedance Town AQMA) 54 Morningside 33 Old Chatham Road 574842 160733 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 33.65 35.41 4.4% Slight adverse No exceedance Aylesford 55 Managers Flat Lower Bell 201 574850 160658 1.5 Existing (non AQMA) 27.07 28.84 4.4% Negligible No exceedance Chatham Road Aylesford Notes: (a) Results are presented to two decimal places to indicate the magnitude of change and are not representative of model accuracy b) No ‘DM’ results, % change or IAQM impact description for future receptors as there is no relevant exposure at these sites in the Do-Minimum scenario (c) AQO: air quality objective, as defined in Section 2.2.4. Exceedances of the objective are presented in bold Source: Mott MacDonald
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Mott MacDonald | Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council Local Plan 106 Air Quality Evidence Base
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391898 | 1 | C | 5 June 2018 https://mottmac.sharepoint.com/teams/pj-b6595/do/Develop/Deliverables/Rev C/TMBC-LocalPlan-AirQualityEvidenceBase-RevC_clean.docx