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Studio Dragon (253450) Update Fundamental S to Improve in 2020 2019. 10. 31 Company Studio Dragon (253450) Update Fundamental s to improve in 2020 ● The business environment in Korea and overseas is moving favorably for the Minha Choi media industry—eg , OTT platforms are launching around the world, a number of Analyst Korean players are engaging in M&A activity, and terrestrial broadcasters are [email protected] investing more heavily in tent-pole content. These developments should lead to 822 2020 7798 more demand for quality content, which bodes well for content producers in 2020. Kwak Hoin ● Studio Dragon should enjoy greater earnings stability by producing multi-season Research Associate original content for OTT services. It may produce content for both Netflix and new [email protected] global players. Terrestrial broadcasters are also eager to secure quality content. 822 2020 7763 ● Capitalizing on its popular intellectual property and production prowess, the firm has been expanding into new business areas and should see solid top- and bottom-line growth next year. We raise our 12-month target price to KRW88,000. WHAT’S THE STORY? Poised to benefit from sea change in media market: The business environment has been changing quickly at home and abroad. Several global giants are preparing to launch OTT platforms from November, and, in response, Korean OTT service providers are teaming up to boost their competitiveness. Struggling from low viewership ratings, the country’s three terrestrial broadcasters have altered programming lineups and in AT A GLANCE September launched OTT platform Wavve in partnership with SK Telecom—the latter a move that may lead to greater investment in tent-pole dramas. Shifts in the market landscape bode well for Studio Dragon, Korea’s leading drama production company. Target price KRW88,000 (32.5%) Producing multi-season original content is positive for earnings stability: Current price KRW66,400 Content is ever more important in the media market. Armed with ample production Market cap KRW1.9t/USD1.6b abilities and production prowess, Studio Dragon should produce more original content Shares (float) 28,095,260 (25.3%) 52 -week high/low KRW114,100/KRW54,000 and enjoy earnings growth next year. Love Alarm , its first original program for Netflix, Avg daily trading KRW6.2b/ aired in August, and its second piece of content, I Am Alone , should be released at year- value (60-day) USD5.2m end or in early 2020. Producing multiple seasons of these dramas would help improve the ONE-YEAR PERFORMANCE stability of its earnings. Studio Dragon may produce more original content for the US 1M 6M 12M streaming giant, and could produce content for other global players that are considering Studio Dragon entering the Korean market. It should see its earnings ratchet up to a higher level, backed -5.4 -26.5 -33.9 (%) by a rising number of dramas produced, greater per-drama investment, and improving Vs Kosdaq -7.0 -12.1 -24.6 (%pts) margins. KEY CHANGES (Continued on the next page) (KRW) New Old Diff SUMMARY FINANCIAL DATA Recommend. BUY BUY 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Target price 88,000 88,000 0.0% 2019E EPS 1,249 1,103 13.2% Revenue (KRWb) 380 487 597 663 2020E EPS 2,210 1,813 21.9% Operating profit (KRWb) 40 45 71 86 Net profit (adj) (KRWb) 36 35 62 75 SAMSUNG vs THE STREET EPS (adj) (KRW) 1,278 1,249 2,210 2,664 No of estimates 20 EPS (adj) growth (% y-y) 21.7 (2.3) 77.0 20.6 Target price 89,800 EBITDA margin (%) 30.3 26.9 29.3 30.2 Recommendation 4.0 ROE (%) 9.3 8.4 13.3 14.0 BUY ★★★ : 5 / BUY: 4 / HOLD: 3 / SELL: 2 / SELL ★★★ : 1 P/E (adj) (x) 52.0 53.2 30.0 24.9 P/B (x) 4.6 4.3 3.7 3.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.9 12.7 9.3 7.8 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: Company data, Samsung Securities estimates Studio Dragon 2019. 10. 31 To wield more bargaining power over terrestrial broadcasters: Studio Dragon has been providing dramas to terrestrial broadcasters in accordance with its strategy of platform diversification. It supplied Doctor John and One Spring Night this year, and next year it should provide The King (written by star writer Kim Eunsook; to air in 1H20). Faced with slumping viewership ratings, terrestrial broadcasters have turned more aggressive than ever to secure quality tent-pole dramas. This should give Studio Dragon more bargaining power and result in stronger earnings momentum. Expanding business areas based on popular IP, production capabilities: Studio Dragon recently bought a 20% stake in film production company Movie Rock. These days, the lines between film and drama production are blurring, and popular dramas are being made into films. A good case in point is The Bad Guys: Reign of Chaos , which was made from a Studio Dragon drama of the same name, which aired on OCN in 2014. This industry trend is positive in terms of intellectual property (IP) usage and business area expansion. Earnings to pick up next year: Favorable developments in the business environment should reinforce the bargaining power of content producers and augment their fundamentals. Earnings should keep growing thanks to the production of more dramas, larger investments per drama, and multi-season production. Shares in Studio Dragon have been quite volatile this year due to: 1) poor performances from tent-pole dramas in their early days; and 2) depreciation costs. But earnings should improve next year on greater use of IP and platform diversification. As we change our valuation basis from 2019 to 2020 EBITDA, we revise up our target price from KRW83,000 to KRW88,000 (based on 15.8x 2020 EV/EBITDA). 2 Studio Dragon 2019. 10. 31 Table 1. 3Q preview (KRWb) 3Q18 2Q19 3Q19E Chg (% q-q) Chg (% y-y) Consensus Difference (%) Sales 123.7 128.2 129.6 1.1 4.8 108.0 20.0 Operating profit 21.5 10.8 10.9 1.3 (49.1) 10.3 6.5 Operating margin 17.4 8.4 8.4 0.0 (8.9) 9.5 (1.1) (%, %pts) Pre-tax profit 22.1 11.9 12.1 1.5 (45.4) 12.9 (6.4) Net profit (controlling) 17.3 7.3 8.0 9.7 (53.6) 9.0 (10.4) Source: Company data, WiseFn, Samsung Securities estimates Table 2. Studio Dragon: financial results and forecast (KRWb) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19E 4Q19E 2018 2019E 2020E Sales 75.3 62.1 77.5 71.9 79.9 74.3 123.7 101.7 111.8 128.2 129.6 117.7 379.6 487.4 596.8 Programing 26.3 24.1 41.8 39.0 40.7 34.1 48.9 54.4 44.1 58.1 56.4 62.1 178.1 220.6 271.3 Distribution 36.5 26.3 23.3 25.7 32.1 28.8 63.4 37.8 56.2 60.3 61.7 44.6 162.1 222.7 279.3 Other 12.5 11.6 12.4 7.2 7.1 11.4 11.4 9.5 11.5 9.8 11.6 11.0 39.4 44.0 46.2 Gross profit 16.8 12.2 10.7 7.4 13.6 10.6 24.8 6.5 15.0 15.4 15.5 17.7 55.6 63.6 92.2 SG&A costs 2.8 3.3 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 6.0 4.0 4.6 4.6 5.8 15.7 19.0 20.8 Operating profit 14.0 8.9 6.6 3.5 10.7 7.3 21.5 0.4 11.0 10.8 10.9 11.9 39.9 44.6 71.4 Pre-tax profit 13.2 9.0 6.4 1.7 10.8 11.0 22.1 1.7 13.2 11.9 12.1 13.0 45.7 50.2 78.9 Net profit 13.4 2.8 5.7 2.0 7.9 8.9 17.3 1.7 9.2 7.3 8.0 10.6 35.8 35.1 62.1 Gross margin 22.2 19.6 13.9 10.4 17.1 14.3 20.1 6.4 13.4 12.0 12.0 15.0 14.6 13.0 15.4 Operating margin 18.5 14.3 8.6 4.8 13.3 9.9 17.4 0.4 9.9 8.4 8.4 10.1 10.5 9.2 12.0 Net margin 17.8 4.5 7.3 2.8 9.8 12.0 14.0 1.7 8.2 5.7 6.2 9.0 9.4 7.2 10.4 Chg (% y-y) Sales - - -- 6.0 19.6 59.7 41.5 40.0 72.6 4.8 15.7 32.4 28.4 22.4 Programing - - -- 54.5 41.1 17.1 39.5 8.4 70.5 15.3 14.2 35.7 23.9 23.0 Distribution - - -- (12.0) 9.5 172.0 46.9 75.1 109.2 (2.7) 18.0 44.9 37.4 25.4 Other - - -- (43.4) (1.9) (8.3) 33.1 63.1 (14.1) 1.5 15.7 (9.8) 11.5 5.1 Gross profit - - -- (18.6) (12.8) 131.0 (12.9) 9.9 45.1 (37.4) 172.2 17.9 14.5 45.0 SG&A costs - - -- 7.3 0.2 (16.6) 51.9 33.1 40.2 38.2 (4.7) 11.5 21.1 9.7 Operating profit -- -- (23.7) (17.6) 223.0 (87.3) 3.5 47.3 (49.1) 2,603.3 21.0 11.9 59.9 Pre-tax profit (18.2) 23.0 247.7 1.9 22.2 7.6 (45.4) 657.7 51.0 9.9 57.1 Net profit (41.3) 217.4 206.3 (12.6) 17.2 (17.4) (53.6) 504.9 50.3 (1.9) 76.7 Gross margin (23.2) (27.1) 44.7 (38.5) (21.5) (16.0) (40.2) 135.2 (10.9) (10.9) 18.4 Operating margin (28.1) (31.1) 102.3 (91.0) (26.1) (14.7) (51.4) 2,235.9 (8.6) (12.9) 30.6 Net margin (44.6) 165.3 91.9 (38.3) (16.3) (52.2) (55.7) 422.7 13.5 (23.6) 44.3 Source: Company data, Samsung Securities estimates 3 Studio Dragon 2019.
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