Ministerial memorandum: Early release of 2018 Census household crowding data

To: Hon James Shaw, Minister of Statistics Cc: Rt Hon – Minister for Child Poverty Reduction Hon – Minister of Finance Hon Dr – Minister of Housing Hon – Minister for Social Development, Associate Minister for Pacific Peoples Hon David Parker – Associate Minister of Finance Hon – Minister for Māori Development, Associate Minister of Housing Hon – Minister for Ethnic Communities, Associate Minister of Health Hon – Associate Minister of Housing Hon Dr David Clark – Minister of Health Hon – Associate Minister of Health Hon Willie Jackson – Associate Minister for Māori Development Hon Aupito – Minister for Pacific Peoples Hon – Associate Minister of Health

From: Jason Attewell, General Manager – Social and Population Insights and Project Executive – 2018 Census Date: 17 April 2020 released Purpose 1. The purpose of this memorandum is to inform you of the decision to release 2018 Census household crowding statistics early, in order to support the Government’s COVID-19 pandemic response. Stats NZ has received a number of requests for urgent release of household crowding data 2. Household crowding is highly correlated with larger rates of infectious disease transmission, therefore, data on household crowding is essential for understanding the risk of COVID-19 for different subpopulations, particularly Māori and Pacific People, and for use in predictive modelling. 3. Stats NZ has been approached by a number of agencies with requests for household crowding data to be released urgently. These agencies include: . Te Rōpū Whakakaupapa Urutā – National Māori Pandemic Group . National Iwi Chairs Forum Pandemic Response Group . Data Iwi Leaders Group

o Developing and testing a real-time mapping tool that helps Iwi target their own Proactivelyresponse to Iwi-Māori in their rohe . Ministry for Pacific Peoples

o Directed by the Minister for Pacific Peoples to conduct urgent COVID-19 pandemic- related research, in conjunction with the Ministry of Health, on the significance of household crowding issues among Pacific people . Ministry of Housing and Urban Development o To input household crowding rates for Māori into predictive modelling as part of their COVID-19 response . Department of Public Health, University of Otago

o The COVID-19 Public Health Response Strategy Team require data for inputting into individual-based models of epidemic spread. Stats NZ will release household crowding data to support the Government’s COVID-19 pandemic response 4. In response to requests and to support the Government’s COVID-19 pandemic response, Stats NZ will release these statistics early, on Wednesday, 22 April 2020 at 10:45am. 5. Household crowding data from the 2018 Census was originally included in the ‘households and families’ data package, and not scheduled for release until May 2020 – which is not timely enough to assist the Government’s COVID-19 pandemic response. 6. The release will consist of Excel data tables and a media story. The media story will outline Stats NZ’s decision to release the data early and summarise the data. There will be no pre-release briefing for this release. 7. Stats NZ is currently working to inform key users of the decision to release the data early – including those who had requested the data be urgently released. Stats NZ is confident the 2018 Census household crowding data is comparable with previous censuses 8. Household crowding information, broken down by ethnicity and area, is vitally important within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and response. Stats NZ has regularly released census data on household crowding since the 1996 Census. 9. Stats NZ has been able to expedite work on household crowdingreleased data, and the data is now ready for release. Quality assurance has been carried out using comparisons to the 2013 Census data. While lower response rates will impact on the number of Māori and Pacific peoples included in the household crowding estimates, Stats NZ is confident the data is comparable with previous censuses. 10. The quality ratings of the variables used in the household crowding data are: . Age – very high . Sex – very high . Number of bedrooms – high . Individual role in family – moderate . Count of households – high 11. Any data caveats users should be aware of will be clearly communicated in the release. Next steps 12. Stats NZ will work to inform key users of the early release of this data and prepare relevant release documents. 13. ThisProactively memorandum will be circulated to the ministers copied, to inform them of the early release.