The Geneva Reports Risk and Insurance Research www.genevaassociation.org Extreme events and insurance: 2011 annus horribilis edited by Christophe Courbage and Walter R. Stahel No. 5 March 2012 The Geneva Association (The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics The Geneva Association is the leading international insurance think tank for strategically important insurance and risk management issues. The Geneva Association identifies fundamental trends and strategic issues where insurance plays a substantial role or which influence the insurance sector. Through the development of research programmes, regular publications and the organisation of international meetings, The Geneva Association serves as a catalyst for progress in the understanding of risk and insurance matters and acts as an information creator and disseminator. It is the leading voice of the largest insurance groups worldwide in the dialogue with international institutions. In parallel, it advances—in economic and cultural terms—the development and application of risk management and the understanding of uncertainty in the modern economy. The Geneva Association membership comprises a statutory maximum of 90 Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) from the world’s top insurance and reinsurance companies. It organises international expert networks and manages discussion platforms for senior insurance executives and specialists as well as policy-makers, regulators and multilateral organisations. The Geneva Association’s annual General Assembly is the most prestigious gathering of leading insurance CEOs worldwide. Established in 1973, The Geneva Association, officially the “International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics”, is based in Geneva, Switzerland and is a non-profit organisation funded by its members. Chairman: Dr Nikolaus von Bomhard, Chairman of the Board of Management, Munich Re, Munich. Vice Chairmen: Mr John Strangfeld, Chairman and CEO, Prudential Financial, Inc., Newark; Mr Kunio Ishihara, Chairman of the Board, Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co., Tokyo; Mr Michael Diekmann, Chairman of the Management Board, Allianz SE, Munich. Members of the Board: Dr Carlo Acutis, Vice President, Vittoria Assicurazioni S.p.A., Turin; Dr Sergio Balbinot, Deputy CEO, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A., Trieste; Mr Henri de Castries, Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AXA Group, Paris; Mr Patrick de Larragoiti Lucas, President, Sul America Seguros, Rio de Janeiro; Prof. Denis Kessler, Chairman and CEO, SCOR, Paris; Mr Michel Liès*, Group CEO, Swiss Re Group, Zurich; Mr José Manuel Martínez, Chairman, MAPFRE SA, Madrid; Mr Mike McGavick, CEO, XL Group plc, Hamilton; Mr Andrew Moss, CEO, Aviva plc, London; Mr Martin Senn, CEO, Zurich Financial Services, Zurich; Mr Tidjane Thiam, Group Chief Executive, Prudential plc, London; Dr Richard Ward, CEO, Lloyd’s, London; Dr Yan Wu, Chairman and President, The People’s Insurance Company (Group) of China Ltd., Beijing. Secretary General and Managing Director: Mr Patrick M. Liedtke, Geneva. Vice Secretaries General: Prof. Jan Monkiewicz (Head of PROGRES and Liaison - Eastern Europe), Warsaw; Mr Walter Stahel (Head of Risk Management), Geneva. Heads of Programmes and Research Directors: Dr Etti Baranoff (Research Director for Insurance and Finance), Richmond; Dr Christophe Courbage (Research Director and Head of Health & Ageing and Insurance Economics), Geneva; Mr Daniel Haefeli (Head of Insurance and Finance), Geneva; Mr Donald Inscoe (Head of Institutional Relations), Basel; Mr Anthony Kennaway (Head of Communications), Geneva; Prof. Krzysztof Ostaszewski (Research Director for Life and Pensions), Normal, Illinois. Special Officers: Mr Katsuo Matsushita (Liaison—Japan & East Asia), Yokohama; Mr Richard Murray (Head of Liability Regimes Project), New York; Mr Gordon Stewart (Liaison—North America), New York; Dr Hans Peter Würmli (Chairman of Chief Risk Officers Network), Zurich. Chairman of the Scientific Advisory Council: Prof. Harold Skipper, Georgia State University, Atlanta. Former Presidents of The Geneva Association: Mr Raymond Barre, Paris (1973-1976); Mr Fabio Padoa, Trieste (1976-1983); Mr Julius Neave, London (1983-1986); Prof. Dr Dr e.h. Reimer Schmidt, Aachen (1986-1990); Sir Brian Corby, London (1990-1993); Drs. Jan H. Holsboer, Amsterdam (1993-1999); Mr Walter Kielholz, Zurich (1999-2003); Mr Henri de Castries, Paris (2003-2008); Mr Martin J. Sullivan, New York (2008); Mr Jacques Aigrain, Zurich (2008-2009). Extreme events and insurance: 2011 annus horribilis The Geneva Association 53 Route de Malagnou, CH-1208 Geneva, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected] Tel: +41-22-707 66 00 Fax: +41-22-736 75 36 www.genevaassociation.org March 2012 © The Geneva Association PEFC/10-31-1587 Promouvoir la gestion durable de la forêt The Geneva Reports—Risk and Insurance Research No. 5 Extreme events and insurance: 2011 annus horribilis edited by Christophe Courbage and Walter R. Stahel The opinions expressed in The Geneva Association publications are the responsibility of the authors. We therefore disclaim all liability and responsibility arising from such materials by any third parties. Published by The Geneva Association (The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics) ISSN 1662-3738 Contents Foreword Michael Butt 1 Part 1—Extreme Events and Insurance 1. Characteristics of the extreme events in 2011 and their impact on the insurance industry Peter Höppe and Petra Löw 7 2. Insurance and extreme events Christophe Courbage and Walter R. Stahel 17 3. Public-private initiatives to cover extreme events Alberto Monti 27 4. CAT bonds and other risk-linked securities: product design and evolution of the market J. David Cummins 39 Part 2—2011 Events and National Studies 5. 11 March Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear emergency: how insurance responded in post-disaster recovery Masaaki Nagamura 65 6. Australian floods and their impact on insurance Eva Q. Ma, Michael J. Guinery, Peter McCarthy and Rick Shaw 81 7. The Christchurch earthquakes of 2010 and 2011 Robert Muir-Wood 93 8. Blown away: monetary and human impacts of the 2011 U.S. tornadoes Kevin Simmons, Daniel Sutter and Roger Pielke 107 9. 2011 Thai floods and insurance Christophe Courbage, Meghan Orie and Walter R. Stahel 121 About the authors 133 Acknowledgements This Geneva Report is the result of a collective effort involving several leading experts from the (re)insurance industry and universities as well as Geneva Association collaborators. It is part of The Geneva Association’s mission to anticipate, identify, analyse and communicate trends that shape the global world of risk and insurance. We would like to thank the authors for their thoughtful contributions, and The Geneva Association staff for their support—in particular Françoise Jaffré for her copy-editing as well as lay-out and production management work and Samantha Solida for her editing. Foreword Foreword Michael Butt 2011 has been a record year for natural catastrophes. Economic losses were unprecedented, reaching more than a third of a trillion dollars. Insured losses have reached a record at an estimated US$105 billion, topping, in absolute terms, the 2005 losses of US$101 billion (Munich Re, 2012) caused, inter alia, by the Atlantic hurricanes, Katrina, Wilma and Rita. It has also continued an unwelcome trend of increasingly severe and costly natural catastrophes with a series of extreme events that included the tragic 11 March earthquake and subsequent tsunami in Japan, the flooding in both Australia and Thailand, the New Zealand earthquakes and the U.S. tornadoes. Whilst the focus of many insurers had settled on North American climate-based events as the cause of heavy claims, 2011 provided a stark reminder of the potential for natural catastrophes elsewhere in the world and not exclusively related to the climate. As the authors of Chapter 1 of this report state, “the year 2011 has set new records both in terms of economic losses and insured losses caused by natural catastrophes. Also the patterns of these losses and distribution to the different perils have been quite different from the long term experience.” Indeed, 2011 has been unusual with regards to the regional distribution, as the majority of disasters happened in Asia, and to the focus on geophysical events, as 47 per cent of losses were due to earthquakes. Globally, the number of catastrophe events was 820, in line with the 10-year 2001-2010 average of 790. But one consistent theme is the global need for adaptation and risk reduction measures to reduce the impact of such events. The impacts of extreme natural events are influenced by a number of local factors. These include preventive measures (wind and earthquake resistant buildings and infrastructures), technical and organisational vulnerabilities and societal resilience (climate-resilient communities), behaviour and pre-event information of the populations at risk. Insurers can help to reduce the hazard potential of extreme weather events by collaborating with their customers as well as with government bodies. Although relief efforts united people around the globe and the governments of affected countries professed to do their best to help and protect their citizens, little advancement has been made in the wake of the 2011 disasters on the underlying question as to how to deal with the existing vulnerabilities and the risks they are exposed to. Few governments have thoroughly revisited their national risk management—if