Volume 5, Number 1 July 2007 Editor: Jeffrey Boutwell Pu gwash Research Assistants: ISSUE BRIEF Erin Blankenship Celeste LeRoux Issued by the Council of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs Design and Layout: Nobel Peace Prize 1995 Anne Read Printing: Cardinal Press Exploring the Potential for Economic Fredericksburg, Virginia Development and Cross-LoC Collaboration in Jammu Kashmir by Moeed Yusuf Pugwash Issue Briefs Introduction holders finally seem to have realized the highlight important issues importance of viewing the ultimate solution The territorial dispute over the state of which lie at the intersection as a product of a long drawn out process Jammu and Kashmir is the single most con - of science, technology and that aims to create an indigenous con - tentious issue between Pakistan and India. public policy. stituency for peace as well as an incentive The issue has been directly or indirectly structure for Pakistan and India such that Intended for wide circulation linked to several Indo-Pak wars and crises. they allow for complete normalization of to policy makers and While persistent efforts have been made to the dispute. analysts, the media, NGOs, find a resolution to the dispute, traditional - Perhaps the most promising ‘out of the the academic and research ly, the entire debate has centered on con - box’ idea floated is the possibility of accel - communities, as well as the cerns about territoriality, sovereignty, prin - erating economic development and Pugwash community, ciple of equality, and moral legitimacy. All strengthening human interaction in both Pugwash Issue Briefs will of these are aspects that allow for little flex - parts of divided Kashmir, both independent - contain articles, commen- ibility without invoking political repercus - ly of each other as well as in a cooperative taries and conclusions that sions for authorities on both sides. framework. The hope is that over time such emanate from the broad Notwithstanding, the failure of the two an approach would integrate peoples and range of Pugwash workshops sides to resolve their differences within the economies on both sides substantially, thus and conferences held each traditional paradigm has finally pushed forming a potent constituency for perma - year. them to broaden their vision and allow nent normalization. more ‘innovative’ ideas to be debated. The The impetus to explore the economic Perspectives and recom- post-9/11 geopolitical situation in South route to enhance the likelihood of political mendations contained in the Asia has acted as a major push factor for reconciliation is grounded in the liberal the - Issue Briefs represent those Islamabad and New Delhi to approach the ory of economic interdependence. Propo - of the individual authors, not issue with a new resolve. The positive spin- nents of the theory perceive trade to be of the Pugwash Conferences off of this welcome change is the window of inherently beneficial for countries as it or its funders. This Pugwash opportunity for relevant stakeholders to brings efficiency gains for producers, con - Issue Brief has been funded contemplate ‘out of the box’ thinking on sumers, and governments. Interdependence, in part by the Carnegie Jammu and Kashmir. The debate is now in turn, ought to bring amelioration of ten - Corporation of New York and increasingly moving away from trying to sions or conflict as a welcome political the U.S. Institute of Peace. impose a permanent solution to adopting a externality. 1 On the domestic front, trade more gradual approach to the issue. Stake - theorists contend that increased trade spurs identifies various sources to finance the suggest - domestic economic activity, thus generating ed plan. Finally, we briefly discuss some gover - employment, reducing unrest and increasing nance concerns relevant to the economic coop - cooperation within local populations. 2 The eco - eration design. nomic theory of interdependence provides the conceptual framework for our analysis. Overview of the Kashmir dispute While the debate on the potential for eco - Jammu and Kashmir are considered a single nomic integration in Jammu Kashmir has been entity but in two parts, located in the northwest initiated, it is being conducted in a broadly part of the South Asian sub-continent. It is land - defined framework. Thus far, there has been lit - locked and borders the Indian states of tle effort to focus on the particular avenues for Himachel Pradesh and Punjab to the south, collaboration and the implementation mecha - Pakistan to the west, Chinese territory of nisms that could be employed. Moreover, the Sinkiang and Tibet to the East and Afghanistan need for a proactive civil society role to lend per - to the northwest (see annex 1). 5 Almost 80 per - manence to such an approach is virtually absent cent of the state’s population is Muslim. Pak - from literature. This paper seeks to fill the void istani Kashmir has a population of 4.1 million, by discussing various potential aspects for eco - almost all of which is Muslim. 6 Indian Kashmir nomic cooperation and the role a vibrant civil comprises 10 million people, of whom 75 per - society could play within such a framework. cent are Muslims. 7 Within Indian Kashmir, the We focus primarily on the possibility for devel - Kashmir Valley, which is the heart of the dis - opment in Pakistani Kashmir 3 and on identify - pute, has a population of over 3 million, 93 per - ing the avenues for joint initiatives with Indian cent of which is Muslim. 8 The region of Jammu Kashmir from Muzaffarabad’s 4 perspective. also comprises nearly 3 million people, with 57 The paper begins by providing a brief percent Hindus and 40 percent Muslims. 9 The overview of the Kashmir dispute. The socio- district of Ladakh is inhabited by 1.5 million economic profile of Pakistani Kashmir is then people, 55 percent of whom are Buddhists and presented. Next, a detailed discussion about approximately 40 percent are Muslims. 10 The various avenues for economic development in latter are predominantly Shia. Pakistani Kashmir and the potential initiatives The origins of the Kashmir dispute lie in the where Pakistani and Indian Kashmir could partition of British India. Kashmir was a prince - cooperate with each other are highlighted. ly state of British India whose ruler was given This discussion is followed by a mention of the the option of joining one of the two new states, potential for civil society involvement in the Pakistan and India, based on the guiding princi - proposed framework. The penultimate section ples of religious majority and geographical conti - guity. 11 As post-partition events unfolded in Moeed Yusuf is currently a Special Guest scholar at the Brookings Institution, USA. He is also a candi - Jammu Kashmir, the Maharaja, a Hindu, was date for a Doctorate in Political Science at Boston University, USA. His permanent affiliation is with faced by a Muslim rebellion, which threatened Strategic and Economic Policy Research (Pvt. Ltd), Pakistan where he serves as a Research Fellow. He is his rule. Under serious threat of a takeover by a also visiting scholar at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Pakistan. Mr. Yusuf focus - the rebels, the Maharaja requested military help es on both political economy considerations as well as concerns falling within the ambit of Pakistan’s security policy. His research interests include: Pakistan’s macro-economy, trade and sustainable devel - from the Indian government, and as a pre-condi - 12 opment issues, prospects for investment in economic ventures of strategic importance, South Asian tion acceded the state to India. Yet by the time nuclear weapons and the “stability-instability paradox,” relevance of nuclear deterrence versus nuclear military assistance from India arrived, the Mus - proliferation in South Asia, global non-proliferation regime, the Kashmir dispute, and United States lim rebellion had already managed to capture strategic interests in South Asia. Muzaffarabad (now capital of the Pakistani 13 Mr. Yusuf has taught as a member of the visiting faculty at the Department of Defence and Strategic Kashmir). The present day territorial distribu - Studies at Quaid-e-Azam University and is currently a Teaching Fellow at Boston University’s political tion of Jammu Kashmir broadly reflects the area science department. Mr. Yusuf has published widely in national/international journals, organizational each side managed to bring under its control at publications, and magazines. He writes a weekly column in The Friday Times, Pakistan. He is currently the time. The government of Pakistan refused to also engaged in writing a book, which is a compilation of his previous writings on strategic and econom - accept Kashmir’s accession to India, which it ic issues relevant to Pakistan. The author would like to thank Gen. (ret.) Talat Masood and Jeffrey claimed violated the fundamental principle that Boutwell for helpful comments on the paper. formed the basis for partition. 14 It further 2 Pugwash Issue Brief alleged that Kashmir’s accession came about as a result of ‘fraud and violence’ that allowed India to exert pressure on the Maharaja. 15 The issue acquired international status when India took the matter to the United Nations (U.N.) Security Council in 1948. 16 Despite efforts by the U.N. and periodic discussions on Kashmir between Pakistan and India in various forums, no tangible progress has been made on the issue. To the contrary, Kashmir has been the cause of Pakistan-India armed conflict in 1948, 1965, and 1999. 17 Near-war crises relevant to the tense situation were experienced in 1987, 1990, and 2001-02. Apart from the impact on bilateral relations, the dispute has had tremendous impact on the state of Jammu and Kashmir itself. Indian Kash - mir has had a turbulent existence ever since independence. The state has witnessed a perpet - ual presence of secessionist elements which have resulted in periodic violence.