Special Conflict Report The Kashmiri Conflict: Historical and Prospective Intervention Analyses November 19-21, 2002 Waging Peace. Fighting Disease. Building Hope. The Carter Center strives to relieve suffering by advancing peace and health worldwide; it seeks to prevent and resolve conflicts, enhance freedom and democracy, and protect and promote human rights worldwide. The Kashmiri Conflict: Historical and Prospective Intervention Analyses November 19–21, 2002 One Copenhill 453 Freedom Parkway Atlanta, GA 30307 (404) 420-5185 Fax (404) 420-3862 www.cartercenter.org July 2003 The Carter Center The Kashmiri Conflict Foreword ashmir has been referred to as the most acknowledging lessons learned in other conflict areas dangerous place on Earth. The prospect while not losing focus on the special considerations of two nuclear powers facing off across unique to Kashmir. such a comparatively small space is I would like to express my appreciation to those frightening indeed. Since the partition participants: Professor Mari Fitzduff from INCORE Kof India and Pakistan in 1947, this unresolved land in Belfast (through her written correspondence); and the people who live there have been at the Joseph Montville, formerly director of the Program root of constant tension between the world’s most on Preventive Diplomacy, Center for Strategic and populous democracy, India, and its neighbor Pakistan. International Studies in Washington; Professor That three major wars have been fought between William Zartman from the School of Advanced those protagonists over the years only heightens the International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; fear that now exists given their advanced technology. Ambassador Teresita Schaffer of the Center for Global and regional implications aside, the instability Strategic and International Studies in Washington; and lack of any conclusive resolution to the political Honorable Salman Haidar, former foreign secretary dispute have left the population of Kashmir divided of India; Hassan Abbas and Usmaan Ahmad, then and uncertain about their future. A land of immense from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, beauty, Kashmir has seen its once burgeoning tourist Tufts University. I appreciate their time, effort, and industry fade completely in the face of military passion in discussing this most dangerous of the incursions and terrorist activity. intractable conflicts worldwide. Their contributions The search for solutions to intractable disagree- to this program were inspiring, and their continued ments is a focus of attention in 2002 for the cooperation with, and interest in, our activities have Carter Center’s International Council for Conflict been most gratifying. Resolution (ICCR), a body composed of leading The Carter Center’s Conflict Resolution Program ex-politicians, diplomats, and academics as well as hosted this event as one of a series of small group technical experts in the field of conflict resolution. In symposia on intractable wars. Program staff con- November 2002 a small group that brought together tinually monitor the world’s conflicts, large and ICCR members with leading regional experts met at small alike, in an effort to maintain their readiness to The Carter Center in Atlanta to discuss the ongoing engage in direct mediation when called upon by the strife in Kashmir. The purpose was to examine parties involved, either on their own or supporting the situation using a comparative analysis of other me in my personal efforts. I am grateful for their violent struggles, seeking to identify common threads work, with the assistance of members of the ICCR, of thought that could inform policy-makers engaged in holding this symposium and assembling this report. in peacemaking efforts in Kashmir and building on the previous small group symposium that focused on the Middle East. As in the previous symposium, the participants attacked the problem with great vigor, 2 The Carter Center The Kashmiri Conflict The Kashmiri Conflict: Historical and Prospective Intervention Analyses Introduction and Summary border provinces with Afghanistan won in the last parliamentary elections. And elements of Pakistani n late March 2003, terrorists thought to be military intelligence continue to support terrorist members of Pakistan-supported Islamic groups activity in Kashmir. Analysts believe that President killed 24 Hindu villagers in Kashmir. This Musharraf has limited ability to curb this action. At incident evoked memories of the suicide attack the same time, as the election season approaches in by Muslim terrorists on the Indian Parliament 2004, the ruling party in India, the Bharatiya Janata Iin New Delhi in December 2001. Events like these Party (BJP), resorts increasingly to the concept of raise the potential threat of war between India and Hindutva, a belief that India is not a secular, pluralist Pakistan. South Asia is thought by many observers to state, but the sacred place of Hindu ascendancy. Any be the most dangerous place in the world, with both student of religion and politics knows that when antagonists armed with nuclear weapons. either party in an ethnic or sectarian conflict invokes Kashmir has been in dispute between India and God or gods on its side, the potential for major loss Pakistan since the time of the partition in 1947. It of life in war simply soars. is a site where both countries constantly face off. In After hosting a two-day workshop earlier last January and June of 2002, India was poised to attack November on the respective roles of Track 1, official Pakistan because of terrorist military action against diplomacy, and Track 2, unofficial diplomacy, in Indian targets in Kashmir. Pakistani President Pervez the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Carter Center’s Musharraf said last December that if India had, Conflict Resolution Program chose the Kashmir issue indeed, invaded, its armies would have met with an for its next subject. Reflecting its commitment to “unconventional response.” India’s defense minister, in-depth political, psychological, and historical George Fernandes, responded saying, “We can take analysis as a prerequisite to building any plausible a [nuclear] bomb, or two or more…but when we strategy on Track 1/Track 2 approaches, the Center respond there will be no more Pakistan.” This is convened native-born Indian, Pakistani, and an alarming level of discourse between neighbors, Kashmiri experts on the conflict with senior retired because it indicates that men in positions to make diplomats from the subcontinent and the United nuclear war happen are suggesting that one or the States and conflict resolution specialists to develop other can prevail in a nuclear confrontation. This an approach to peacemaking in Kashmir. This is a level of self-delusion that can have only the report is the fruit of this preliminary effort. most catastrophic consequences for the people of Three states, India, Pakistan, and China, control both countries. It suggests that the lessons of the parts of Kashmir, which despite a large Muslim U.S.-Soviet balance of terror and the absurdity majority is host to important Hindu and Buddhist of mutually assured destruction have been lost on minorities and seven major language families. One of the governments of India and Pakistan. the many ironies in the conflict is that while the Vale Furthermore, the rise of the religious right in both of Kashmir is the violent center of the conflict that countries creates a political environment that verges could precipitate nuclear war, it amounts to just on the apocalyptic. Islamic factions in Pakistan’s .25 percent of the territory, population, and GNP of 3 The Carter Center The Kashmiri Conflict South Asia. Yet Kashmir has paralyzed the region for Pakistan needs India’s help as it attempts to suppress the last 12 years and over several decades produced the radicalization in its country. If Pakistan fails as a competing national narratives in India and Pakistan state, India would suffer a major deterioration in its on the right of possession that have left the region in own security. a limbo of agony. Consideration of Track 1 and Track 2 initiatives The issue of whether Muslims or Hindus or secular requires considerable caution given the fragility of politicians should rule has preoccupied Kashmir from the India-Pakistani relationship. There is strong at least the early 1930s when a distinctly Kashmiri consensus that the United States has a critical Track 1 identity began to emerge. But with the approach to mediating role to play, and it should play it on a partition in 1947, Kashmir became embroiled in the continuing basis. This security situation is too serious cataclysms of the subcontinent as a whole. As for episodic interventions. But rather than formal Kashmiri national aspirations became subsumed bilateral discussions between the two countries, facili- under the greater India/Pakistani conflict, the tated back-channel communication may be easier to grievances of the region began to crystallize. A manage and more productive initially. Again, the plebiscite called for by the United Nations to American effort must be sustained, reflecting an discern Kashmiri wishes about their political status investment in time and energy commensurate with was never held. With a new educated generation the level of danger to the region. There should also coming to age in the 1980s, demands for Kashmiri be serious and continuous efforts to build peace con- self-determination increased but were faced with stituencies in both countries and in Kashmir. And a vigorous suppression by the Indian army and police. special effort should be made to find respected reli- Attempts of independent-minded Kashmiris to use gious leaders who can promote the idea of peaceful elections for a popular mandate were ended when settlement of conflicts. the election of 1987 was rigged against them. The Track 2 efforts to date have primarily consisted of resulting downward spiral, exacerbated intensively meetings usually organized by foreigners that bring by the appearance in the region of jihadi veterans together former Indian and Pakistani government of the Afghan war, has contributed to the political officials, retired military officers, and academics.