Hart District Local Plan Public Transport Assessment Hart District Council June 2012

Issue/revision Issue 1 Revision 1 Revision 2 Revision 3

Remarks Draft Final Revised Final

Date March 2012 April 2012 June 2012

Prepared by Emily Butler Emily Butler Kirstin McMullan

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Checked by Tom Beck Tom Beck Tom Beck

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Authorised by Stephen Reed Stephen Reed Stephen Reed

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Project number 50400036 50400036

File reference N:\50400036 - N:\50400036 - Hart LDF Public Hart LDF Public Transport\TEXT\ Transport\TEXT\ REPORTS\REVI REPORTS\REVI SED FINAL SED FINAL ISSUE June ISSUE June 2012\Hart District 2012\Hart District Local Plan Public Local Plan Public Transport Transport Assessment Assessment REVISED REVISED FINAL.docx FINAL.docx

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Contents

1 Introduction 1

2 Transport Assessment Methodology 2

3 Current Levels of Public Transport Accessibility in Hart District 7

4 Impact Of Planned Development In Hart District On Public Transport 13

5 Summary 21

Appendix A Revised Housing Distribution Appendix B Existing Public Transport Access Figures Appendix C Site Visit Summary Appendix D Forecast Impact On Rail Services Appendix E Forecast Impact On Bus Services

1 Introduction

1.1 INTRODUCTION 1.1.1 Since the publication of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) on 27 March 2012 Local Authorities that have not yet published their Local Development Framework (LDF) will now produce a Local Plan. 1.1.2 The Local Plan will be made up of a number of documents, produced by the district council, which outline the spatial planning strategy for the local area. This part of the planning system assists in determining the scale and form of new development, where it should be located and the associated new infrastructure required. 1.1.3 WSP has been commissioned to assist in the investigation of the transport related impacts of delivering the Local Plan housing target for Hart District Council, in particular the impact on public transport services.

1.2 HOUSING ALLOCATION FOR HART DISTRICT 1.2.1 This study considers development in Hart District between 2006 and 2028. This is the period covered in Hart’s Draft LDF Core Strategy (July 2011). The Draft LDF Core Strategy includes the following policy on housing distribution and delivery: Policy SS2: Housing Distribution and Delivery The Council will make provision for the delivery of at least 4,840 net additional dwellings between 2006 and 2028 through: a) 660 completions between 2006 and 2010 b) 1,740 dwellings from ‘deliverable’ and ‘developable’ sites c) At least 2,440 dwellings to be delivered through four strategic locations (North East Hook, West Fleet, Guillemont Park and Fleet Town Centre), with the remainder through ‘windfall’ sites where they accord with policies of the development plan and on sites allocated in a subsequent development plan document.

1.3 SCENARIOS TO BE TESTED 1.3.1 Within this study two scenarios have been tested: Scenario 1: Hart District LDF Core Strategy with a broad distribution of future residential developments (as identified in LDF Core Strategy Preferred Approach for Consultation July 2011). Scenario 2: Revised distribution for housing provided by Hart District Council on 5 June (included in Appendix A).

1.3.2 The reason for the two scenarios is that the list of future development locations provided by HDC on 5 June are distributed differently and have a different housing allocation compared to the Draft LDF Core Strategy (July 2011) document. The assessment of the impact of each scenario has been undertaken with the same level of detail (i.e. a spreadsheet based assessment). 1.3.3 For each of the two housing scenarios the impact on bus and rail services has been forecast. The methodology for this assessment is described in the next section.

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2 Transport Assessment Methodology

2.1 INTRODUCTION 2.1.1 This chapter is based on the Technical Note produced on 12th March 2012 which outlined the assumptions and agreed methodology on which the assessment would be based. 2.1.2 It sets out the levels and locations of development, trip rate, mode share and distribution to be used. 2.1.3 Within the remaining subsections of this note, technical areas of the methodology calculations have been set out and assumptions stated under the following topics:

Scale of developments considered in study;

Trip rate assumptions;

Mode share assumptions; and

Trip distribution assumptions.

2.2 SCALE OF DEVELOPMENT 2.2.1 Following discussions with HDC, the level of future planned development (2006-2028) in relation to residential growth has been identified relative to each key major development area. This assessment considers the impact to public transport of all these developments based on the size and location of the residential developments, as stated below. Within the study a number of scenarios have been tested for impact to account for the variation in housing development distribution identified by the Council scenarios.

HOUSING 2.2.2 Policy SS2 of HDC’s Draft LDF Core Strategy (July 2011) (Scenario 1) sets a minimum housing provision of 4,840 homes between 2006 and 2028 of which 660 have already been built between 2006 and 2010. A further 1,740 are in the anticipated supply. The residual housing required in the period 2010 to 2028 is 2,440 homes. 2.2.3 HDC provided a Development Proforma (dated 21 December 2011) which lists completed sites up to 2011 (901 homes) and ‘deliverable and developable’ sites between 2011 and 2016 (1,693 homes). These have been taken as the completed and deliverable and developable sites referred to in HDC’s Draft Core Strategy. 2.2.4 Within the assessment we have examined the cumulative impact of the total future development on the key public transport networks, but within this total we have not included completed developments because it is assumed that these developments are already utilising the public transport network. 2.2.5 To simplify this assessment, developments have been grouped according to location into the following areas; Hook, Fleet, Yateley, and Hartley Wintney. The developments within Fleet include two major developments which are: Queen Elizabeth Barracks (872 properties), and Hitches Lane (300 properties). As a result Fleet will be assessed as three separate groups (Queen Elizabeth Barracks, West Fleet and Town Centre). 2.2.6 Scenario 2 housing totals are based on revised distribution for housing provided by Hart District Council.

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2.2.7 Based on the above, the total housing for each settlement is shown for each scenario within Table 2.1 below: Table 2.1 – Summary of housing size and locations to be assessed in study scenarios

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Development Developable Developable Planned Planned Locations and and Development Development Deliverable Deliverable

Hook 20 550 83 600 Fleet – Queen 872 0 872* 0 Elizabeth Barracks Fleet – Hitches 300 700 300* 170 Lane/West Fleet Fleet – Fleet Town 100 250 Centre 268 272* Fleet – Other 240 233 developments Guillemont Park, 0 150 0 0 Hawley Yateley/ Frogmore/ 12 100 150 162 Darby Green Hartley Wintney 209 100 161 220 Odiham & North 12 150 56 180 Warnborough 0 350 55 500 Rural areas Total 1693 2440 1949 2315 *Estimated distribution based on Scenario 1

2.3 TRIP RATES 2.3.1 In order to identify trip rates for each land use, the number of generated trips has been determined from the TRICS database with reference to comparative sources. TRICS is generally regarded as the most appropriate source in that it uses observed data from development sites. 2.3.2 For this study person trip rates have been determined from TRICS, as shown in Table 2.2 below, these are based on developments in the South East, so as to not to skew the data with London developments (which are likely to produce preferentially low trip rates). The mixed private/non-private housing category has been used as the exact proportion of housing and flats and private and rented housing have not been determined at this stage.

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Table 2.2 – Summary AM Peak Person Trip rates to be used within this study Land use Unit Time Departures Arrivals Total - 2 way 7-8am 0.390 0.098 0.488

(C3) Housing Per 8-9am 0.657 0.126 0.783 (mixed) HH AM Peak 1.047 0.224 1.271 (7-9am)

2.3.3 Table 2.2 shows trip rates for periods 7-8am, 8-9am and 7-9am. It is anticipated that most trips by local bus would occur between 8-9am, whilst trips by rail would be made over the longer period of 7-9am especially for journeys to London (which is around an hour by train from Hart). 2.3.4 The assessment has been based on the departure trip rate over a 2 hour period (7-9am).

2.4 MODE SHARE 2.4.1 Mode Share for each residential development has been estimated using the Travel to Work Census data from 2001. The mode share has been extracted for both Hart District and Hampshire to provide a comparison as shown in Table 2.3 below. The table shows a higher proportion of residents in Hart District travelling to work by car compared to the rest of Hampshire. In terms of public transport use, a higher percentage of residents use the train in Hart District to travel to work compared to the rest of Hampshire, although fewer tend to use the bus. This is potentially due to limited bus services being available in some areas of Hart. As the mode share proportions for rail and bus are quite different for Hart District and Hampshire County, a worst case approach (i.e. the greatest number of public transport trips) has been taken using the bus proportion from Hampshire County and rail proportion from Hart District as a basis for mode share in this study. This also represents the expected target mode shares for bus and rail that would be set for new development in Hart, where there would be an aspiration to achieve a higher proportion of trips by these modes than present. Table 2.3 – Census 2001 Mode Share Data Mode of transport Hampshire Hart District County Mode Mode Share Share Car Driver 70% 75% Walking 10% 8% Car Passenger 6% 5% Bicycle 4% 3% Bus 4% 1% Train 4% 6% Motorcycle 1% 1% Other 1% 1% Taxi 0% 0% 2.4.2 A view was taken that the Travel to Work Census data, although it provides an indication of mode share proportion, is not necessarily representative of future development mode shares which will be subject to increased public transport trips through Travel Plan targets and initiatives. To compensate for this effect, Bus and Rail

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mode shares have been doubled. The resultant proportions are shown in Table 2.4 below. 2.4.3 The mode shares identified in Table 2.4 below have been applied to the future development AM Peak Hour departure trips to provide a worst case scenario assessment for public transport trips. The existing modes shares for bus in Hampshire County (4%) and for rail in Hart (6%) have also be used to represent the lower end of the expected impact. Table 2.4 – Transport Assessment Mode Share Scenarios Mode of transport Low High Bus 4% 8% Train 6% 12%

2.5 TRIP DISTRIBUTION 2.5.1 Trip distribution for each residential development site has been estimated using Travel to Work census data from 2001 to be in keeping with the methodology used in the Preliminary Transport Assessment (PTA) April 2010. Within the study it has been assumed that distribution of AM peak arrivals will be based on the same distribution of AM peak departures. The PTA identified distribution fully for local trips although trips further afield were assigned a distribution of M3 (N), M3 (S) etc. This study has been based on the same trip distribution methodology as the PTA, but has expanded upon the distribution to further afield locations through identifying rail station locations that are likely to be travelled. Additionally this study will utilise bus and rail trips data from the Census to identify the trip distribution for each mode, rather than the person trips (which include all Travel to Work modes) used in the PTA. This has identified the chosen destinations undertaken by each mode. 2.5.2 As stated above, for all development sites the 2001 Travel to Work census data has been used to identify trip distribution. To use the census data a ward, or number of wards, must to be selected as representative of each development area. The proposed representative ward (s) used for each development site is based on those used in the first stage of work and is set out in the table below: Table 2.5 – Representative ward used to identify trip distribution for each cluster Development Area Representative Ward

Hook Hook Hartley Wintney Hartley Wintney Fleet Church Crookham East, Church Crookham West, Fleet Central, Fleet North, Fleet Pondtail, Fleet West, Fleet Courtmoor. Yateley Yateley North, Yateley West, Yateley East Odiham Odiham

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2.6 METHODOLOGY SUMMARY Parameter Assumption Made Years Assessed 2006 to 2028, as per HDC Draft Core Strategy Housing Scenarios Two scenarios to be undertaken: 1) HDC Draft Core Strategy 2) Figures provided by HDC See Table 1.7 below Development Trip Rates Based on values taken from TRICS South East Private Housing Mode Share Bus Mode Share: double current Hampshire Mode Share (Census 2001) Rail Mode Share: double current Hart Mode Share (Census 2001) Trip Distribution Based on Preliminary Transport Assessment (HTP)

Table 2.6 Housing Scenarios 2028

Scenario 1* Scenario 2*

1) Hook 570 683

2) Fleet – Queen Elizabeth Barracks 872 872

3) Fleet – West Fleet 1000 470 4) Fleet – Town Centre/Other 608 755 development 5) Guillemont Park 150 0 6) Yateley 112 312 7) Hartley Wintney 309 381

8) Odiham 162 236

*Figures include ‘Developable and Deliverable Sites’ Planned Development in ‘Rural Areas’ (350 – 500 dwellings) not included as location for this development is not known.

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3 Current Levels of Public Transport Accessibility in Hart District

3.1 CURRENT PUBLIC TRANSPORT SERVICES 3.1.1 There are four rail stations in Hart (Hook, Winchfield, Fleet and Blackwater). Three of these stations are on the Basingstoke to London Waterloo line whilst the fourth station (Blackwater) is on the Reading to Gatwick line. 3.1.2 Two of the four rail stations in Hart (Fleet and Winchfield) have been identified in Network Rail’s South West Main Line Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS) 2006, as having car parks close to or at capacity. In the RUS, Fleet station car park is said to be 99% utilised and Winchfield station car park 100% utilised. It is important to identify the impact that committed and planned (LDF) development in Hart may have on the rail network and whether further mitigation measures are required, especially additional car parking provision. 3.1.3 Bus services in Hart provide links to Basingstoke, Reading, Camberley, Farnborough, Aldershot, Farnham and Alton with most bus services operating to or from Fleet. Winchfield currently has no regular bus services and Hook has only one regular bus service (service 10 to Basingstoke). The main bus services in Hart are shown on Figure 3.1 below. Figure 3.1 Main Bus Services in Fleet

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Table 3.1 AM Peak Period Bus Services Service Route AM Peak Operator Supported Period Frequency

3 Yateley – Camberley - Every 15 Stagecoach Aldershot mins (South) 10 Odiham – Hook - Hourly Stagecoach Basingstoke (South) 70 Aldershot – Fleet – Hourly Fleet Buzz* Supported Elvetham Heath 71 Farnham – Fleet – Hourly Fleet Buzz* Elvetham Heath 72 Fleet - Elvetham Hourly Fleet Buzz* Heath - Reading

73 Zebon Copse – Fleet Every 30 Fleet Buzz* Supported – Farnborough – mins Frimley Park Hospital 79 Fleet - Yateley 2 journeys Fleet Buzz* 82 Fleet – Farnborough – Hourly Fleet Buzz* Yateley - Reading * Fleet Buzz now owned by Stagecoach 3.1.4 Two bus services in Hart are currently financially supported by Hampshire County Council (HCC) (Services 70 and 73). HCC’s bus subsidy budget has been reduced following cuts in the amount of money Hampshire receives from Central Government. An important element of this study, and any subsequent work on mitigation, will be to understand what changes to Hart’s bus network may result from the above budget cuts and examine if currently planned development sites could assist in supporting existing bus services where council subsidies are no longer available or require new services and the viability issues these may have over the plan period.

3.2 ACCESSIBILITY ANALYSIS 3.2.1 The accessibility modelling tool ACCESSION has been used to show how accessible each development site is for key destinations by public transport. The outputs from ACCESSION are included in Appendix B and described below. Hook Rail Station 3.2.2 Figure B1 shows that Odiham is within 15 minutes by bus from Hook Rail Station. Proposed strategic development in Hook is around 15 minutes by bus from the station and is expected to also be accessible by foot and cycle. 3.2.3 Previously Service 100 operated between Basingstoke-Hook – Hartley Wintney – Camberley. If this service was reinstated it would again provide a link between Hartley Wintney and Hook Rail Station.

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Fleet Rail Station 3.2.4 Figure B2 shows that all of the Fleet urban area including Fleet Town Centre, West Fleet and QE Barracks is accessible by bus within 15 minutes from Fleet Rail Station. Hartley Wintney can also be reached by bus within 15 minutes. 3.2.5 Yateley and Yateley Common are linked to Fleet Station by Service 79. This bus route is not depicted in Figure B2 as it is an irregular service, however it does operate during peak periods. 3.2.6 Guillemont Park is accessible within 30 minutes by bus from Fleet Rail Station; however the most accessible rail station by bus for this location is Farnborough Main Rail Station (see Figure B7). Blackwater Rail Station 3.2.7 Figure B3 shows that Yateley is within 15 minutes by bus from Blackwater Rail Station which provides a connection to rail services for Guildford, Dorking and Gatwick Airport. Reading is the primary destination from the Blackwater Valley by rail, as does Sandhurst Rail Station which is geographically closer to Yateley (see Figure B4) although more trains call at Blackwater during the peak than Sandhurst. Sandhurst Rail Station 3.2.8 Figure B4 has been included to demonstrate there is no existing public transport link which directly connects Sandhurst and Yateley, despite Sandhurst geographically being the closest rail station to Yateley. 3.2.9 Sandhurst Rail Station is a better option for services to Reading, as otherwise people would be required to catch a bus from Yateley to Blackwater to then head back on themselves via Sandhurst to reach Reading effectively ‘doubling back’ on their initial journey. Fleet Town Centre 3.2.10 Figure B5 shows all of the Fleet urban area including West Fleet and QE Barracks which can reach Fleet Town Centre within 15 minutes by bus. The calculation shows it would take 25 minutes to reach Fleet Town Centre from Hartley Wintney by bus. 3.2.11 As in Figure B2, Yateley and Yateley Common are linked to Fleet Station by Service 79. This bus route is not depicted in Figure B5 as it is not a regular service; however it does operate during peak periods. 3.2.12 The accessibility isochrone calculation in Figure B5 includes rail services and shows that Fleet Town Centre is accessible within 25 minutes from Winchfield via Fleet Rail Station, whilst Hook Rail Station is 30 minutes away. Basingstoke Town Centre 3.2.13 Figure B6 shows that Basingstoke can be reached from Odiham and Hook by bus within 30 minutes. Basingstoke could also be accessible from Hartley Wintney by bus if the Service 100 was reinstated beyond Hook. 3.2.14 Basingstoke can be reached within 15 minutes from Hook whilst Winchfield Rail Station and Fleet Rail Station are 20 minutes away. Basingstoke is accessible from Fleet Town Centre within 30 minutes.

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Farnborough Town Centre 3.2.15 Figure B7 shows that Fleet Town Centre, West Fleet and QE Barracks are within 20 minutes, 25 minutes and 30 minutes respectively from Farnborough by interchanging from Fleet Rail Station to the surrounding bus services. 3.2.16 Yateley and Yateley common are accessible within 25 minutes by bus, as is Guillemont Park within a similar time frame. 3.2.17 Winchfield and Blackwater rail stations are 20 minutes away from Farnborough Main Rail Station by train, whilst Hook Rail Station is accessible within 25 minutes.

3.3 CURRENT LEVEL OF USE AT RAIL STATION CAR PARKS AND RAIL SERVICES 3.3.1 Some, limited, walk over surveys were undertaken of rail station car parks in Hart and the usage of the rail service between Basingstoke and Farnborough Main in the AM Peak. These surveys were conducted on a single day, outside of school holidays (Tuesday 28 February 2012). A summary of these surveys is included in Appendix C with the headline results presented below:

Blackwater Railway Station Total number of available normal spaces was: 72 Total number of normal spaces in car park: 125 spaces Percentage Occupied: 42%

Fleet Railway Station Total number of available normal spaces: 4 Total number of normal spaces in car park: 374 spaces Percentage Occupied: 99%

Winchfield Railway Station Total number of available normal spaces was: 66 Total number of normal spaces in car park: 250 spaces Percentage Occupied: 74%

Hook Railway Station Total number of available normal spaces was: 72 Total number of normal spaces in car park: 157 spaces Percentage Occupied: 54% 3.3.2 The surveys undertaken indicate that with the exception of Fleet Railway Station Car Park there is capacity at the majority of railway station car parks in Hart. The South West Main Line RUS (2006) indicated that Winchfield Rail Station Car Park was 100% occupied. However, SWT have been contacted and they confirm that their own recent observations agree with WSP observations that Winchfield Rail Station Car Park does have spaces available at the end of the AM Peak.

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3.3.3 Observations of the rail service between Basingstoke and Farnborough Main indicated that currently there are seats available in the AM Peak on services towards London.

3.4 DISCUSSIONS WITH RAIL AND BUS OPERATORS

Discussion with the Rail Operator (South West Trains) 3.4.1 Three of the four rail stations in Hart are located on the Basingstoke to London Waterloo line and are operated by South West Trains (SWT). SWT were asked to provide comment on the current level of demand on rail services through Hart and any plans for expanding capacity on these services, 3.4.2 In their response SWT confirmed that rail services in the AM Peak towards London Waterloo are not currently at capacity through Hart, but are at or over capacity when they reach Clapham Junction or London Waterloo. This confirms observations conducted by the project team of the current level of usage of rail services through Hart, 3.4.3 With regard to plans for expanding capacity SWT explained that the majority of services operating in the AM Peak will continue as now, with most operating with 12 carriages.

Discussion with the Bus Operator (Stagecoach) 3.4.4 As detailed in Table 3.1, the two key operators providing bus services in Hart are Stagecoach and Fleet Buzz. Stagecoach has recently purchased the Fleet Buzz business, however the existing branding of these services will continue. Stagecoach has been contacted with regards to the bus services in Table 3.1, in particular to gain a more thorough understanding of current provision, operational plans for the future, the ability for services to accommodate growth and to find out where there are current / potential future gaps in the network. 3.4.5 In contacting Stagecoach South, it was confirmed that the Commercial Director for Stagecoach South, Mark Turner, was best placed to provide a response given the nature of the enquiry. It has not been possible to speak directly with Mark, but he has provided some feedback via email which is summarised below:

Fleet Buzz – Slowly taking stock of the services and analysing the commerciality of the routes – Over a period of time Stagecoach will be looking to develop the business and integrate certain aspects with the main Stagecoach business where it benefits the travelling public

Service 10 – Stagecoach has confirmed that there are a number of ideas (not elaborated upon) for changes to Service 10 and that these are currently being evaluated

General – Stagecoach comments that it is very significant that so much of the public transport demand in the area is for the railway and many of the bus services aim to integrate. This will explain why there is so little east - west commercial bus provision

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– All current routes are operated by midibus type vehicles and so if demand were to increase then Stagecoach has confirmed that it is very easy to increase capacity by simply using bigger vehicles – At the moment Stagecoach don't have any specific plans in the area but will be looking to develop services as this is why they say they have purchased the business.

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4 Impact Of Planned Development In Hart District On Public Transport

4.1 ANALYSIS OF DEVELOPMENT TRIPS ON RAIL SERVICES 4.1.1 The trip destinations from each development site were identified through the trip distribution analysis. For each destination the most appropriate boarding station was identified from each development area, based on the closest rail station with the most direct route and requiring individuals to make the fewest number of changes. A summary of the boarding station for each development is included in Table 4.1 below. Table 4.1 Boarding Station for Each Development Site Development Area Boarding Station 1) Hook Hook 2) Fleet – Queen Elizabeth Barracks Fleet 3) Fleet – West Fleet Fleet 4) Fleet – Town Centre/Other Fleet development Farnborough Main 5) Guillemont Park Farnborough North Blackwater 6) Yateley Sandhurst Farnborough Main Fleet 7) Hartley Wintney Hook 8) Odiham Hook 4.1.2 The full breakdown of rail trips forecast in each housing and mode share scenario is included in Appendix D. The table below quantifies the impact of planned development at each station. Table 4.2 Forecast Rail Trips at Each Station Generated by Planned Development (7-9am) Low High Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Rail station Direction 1 2 1 2 Hook East 37 47 74 94 West 11 14 22 27 Winchfield No development sites associated with Winchfield Fleet East 158 141 317 282 West 19 16 37 32 Blackwater North* 1 2 2 5 South 0 1 1 3 * Shown in this table as using Blackwater, but Sandhurst may be used instead 4.1.3 Table 4.2 shows that the greatest number of rail trips forecast is in housing scenario 1 with high rail mode share (12%). In this scenario an additional 317 rail trips are forecast from Fleet station between 7 and 9am in the east bound direction. There are six train services towards London during this period so this additional demand is equivalent to around 53 additional passengers per train. The main impact on rail services of planned development in Hart is anticipated to be the impact on rail station car parks which is discussed in the following section.

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4.2 ANALYSIS OF RAIL PARKING 4.2.1 Mode share for rail users travelling to each rail station has been estimated using Fleet Station Survey 2011, and the Queen Elizabeth Barracks Transport Assessment (February 2012). The Fleet Station Survey results are shown in Table 4.3 below, revealing that 25% of those travelling to Fleet Station do so as car drivers with no passengers and 7% as car drivers with passengers. The proximity of Fleet Station to the Fleet residential area is favourable for those travelling to the station by modes other than the car. This is demonstrated by the high percentage of walking trips (28%). For these reasons the Fleet Station Survey mode share has been applied as a rail car driver mode share for developments within 2km of a rail station. Table 4.3 – Fleet Station Survey Mode Share Results Mode Percentage of trips (%) Walk 28% Cycle 10% Car – no passengers 25% Car – with passengers 7% Car – dropped off 21% Bus/Coach 6% Taxi 1% Minibus 1% Other 1% 4.2.2 QEB is located in Church Crookham approximately 4km from Fleet Station, and is therefore representative of developments further than 2km from a railway station. Paragraph 7.2.8 of the QEB Transport Assessment assumes that 50% of rail users travel to the station by car. This percentage of car drivers has been agreed with Hampshire County Council as part of the QEB assessment and therefore provides a robust representation of rail drive trips. For this assessment the QEB rail car driver mode share has been applied to developments located more than 2km from a mainline station. 4.2.3 For some developments the proportion of rail users travelling by car will be dependent on the rail station they are travelling to. The proportion of trips made to rail stations by car drivers for each development and boarding station are shown in Table 4.4 below. Table 4.4 – Fleet Station Survey Mode Share Results Development Area Boarding Station Rail Drive Mode Share 1) Hook Hook 32% 2) Fleet – Queen Elizabeth 50% Fleet Barracks 3) Fleet – West Fleet Fleet 50% 4) Fleet – Town 32% Fleet Centre/Other development Farnborough Main 50% 5) Guillemont Park Farnborough North 50% Blackwater 32% 6) Yateley Sandhurst 50% Farnborough Main 50% Fleet 50% 7) Hartley Wintney Hook 50% 8) Odiham Hook 50%

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4.2.4 Using the assumptions set out above the forecast number of additional journeys by car to rail stations has been estimated. The results of these calculations are provided below. Table 4.5 Additional Station parking (7-9am) Low High Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Rail station 1 2 1 2 Hook 17 22 35 45 Winchfield No development sites associated with Winchfield Fleet 81 70 163 139 Farnborough Main 6 8 13 15 Farnborough North 1 0 2 0 Blackwater 1 2 1 3 4.2.5 The results of this assessment indicate that 139 – 163 trips could be made by car to Fleet Station from planned development in Hart. Surveys undertaken as part of this study have shown that Fleet Station Car Park is already close to, if not at, capacity. The next stage of work will have to consider how best to serve this anticipated additional demand for car parking at Fleet Station.

4.3 ANALYSIS OF DEVELOPMENT TRIPS ON BUS SERVICES 4.3.1 The bus census distribution was applied to the bus trips calculated for each development. Trips were grouped depending on the direction of travel to establish the number of additional trips likely to affect existing services. A number of trips were categorised as internalised which would be shorter journeys contained within the same town or village. Additionally, some trips were destined for locations further afield such as London for which a view was taken that these trips would be travelling to the nearest rail station to travel on to these locations. As a result these were categorised as internalised for Hook, where the distance to the station is less than 2km, and categorised as rail station for Fleet where the rail station is further away. 4.3.2 Table E1 in Appendix E shows the projected increases in bus usage as a result of the scenario 1 development trips with the low mode share (4%) applied. The results show that across the district as a whole most trips travel to Fleet Central (23 trips) with a total of 70 trips travelling within Hart District out of a total of 163 bus trips from all developments. A number of bus trips could travel out of the district with estimates of 23 trips travelling to Aldershot, 18 trips to Farnborough, 13 trips to Camberley and 12 to Basingstoke. 4.3.3 Table E2 in Appendix E shows the estimated increase in the number of bus trips due to the scenario 2 development trips and low mode share (4%). As a result of this scenario the estimated number of trips travelling within Hart District amount to 70 trips out of a total of 160 development bus trips. Within Hart District the most travelled destinations include Fleet Central (22 trips), 9 trips to Hartley Wintney and 8 trips to Fleet North. Bus trips estimated to areas outside Hart district include 21 trips to Aldershot, 16 trips to Farnborough, 15 trips to Basingstoke with 4 additional trips travelling via Basingstoke to other destinations and 12 trips to Camberley.

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4.3.4 Table E3 in Appendix E demonstrates the estimated additional number of bus trips associated with Scenario 1 with the higher bus mode share (8%) applied. Across the district an estimated 325 bus trips result from the new development in Scenario 1, with 141 of these trips estimated to be within Hart District. The destinations with most trips within the district are estimated as Fleet Central with 45 trips, Hartley Wintney with 17 trips, Fleet North with 15 trips, and 13 trips travelling to Eversley. As demonstrated in the other scenarios a number of trips travel out of Hart district to Aldershot with 46 trips, Farnborough with 35 trips, Camberley with 25 trips, and Basingstoke with 24 trips, and an additional 9 trips travelling via Basingstoke to other destinations. 4.3.5 Table E4 in Appendix E demonstrates a worst case scenario for the district, with the highest number of dwellings and a higher mode share (8%) combined. As a result the additional bus trips for this scenario across the district are estimated as 317, with 137 of these trips travelling within Hart District. Estimated trip destinations within Hart include Fleet Central with 43 trips, Hartley Wintney with 17 trips, Fleet North with 16 trips, Odiham with 11 trips and Hook with 9 trips. The destinations travelled to by bus outside Hart District include Aldershot with an estimated 40 trips, Farnborough with 31trips, Camberley with 24 trips, Basingstoke with 30 trips, with 8 additional trips travelling via Basingstoke to other destinations. 4.3.6 The potential impact of these additional trips on existing services will depend on the location of the development and the potential services used, and this will be discussed in more detail below. 4.3.7 Tables 4.6 to 4.13 below shows the estimated number of bus trips associated with each scenario assessment and the direction of travel for each Development Area. Table 4.6 Hook Development Area Bus Trips (7-9am)

Hook Development Bus Patronage Area Low High Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Direction of travel 1 2 1 2 Internalised/ rail station 5 6 10 11 West 7 8 14 17 South 3 4 6 7 East 9 11 19 22 Total 24 29 48 58

4.3.8 Table 4.6 for the Hook development area shows for each scenario that most trips travel east towards Hartley Wintney and Fleet, and west towards Basingstoke. The route west towards Basingstoke is served by the 10 service (currently operating hourly). However, there are currently no bus services in the eastbound direction.

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Table 4.7 Queen Elizabeth Barracks Development Area Bus Trips (7-9am)

Queen Elizabeth Bus Patronage Barracks Low High Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Direction of travel 1 2 1 2 Fleet Town Centre 6 6 11 11 Fleet Station 3 3 6 6 Church Crookham 0 0 0 0 Fleet 4 4 9 9 South East 9 9 18 18 North East 11 11 23 23 North West 4 4 9 9 Total 38 38 75 75

4.3.9 Table 4.7 for Queen Elizabeth Barracks development in Church Crookham shows most bus trips are anticipated to travel north-east towards Farnborough, Camberley and Frimley, and travelling south-east towards Aldershot. The north-east bound trips and those travelling to Fleet are catered for by the number 73 service, which provides a half hourly service starting at 06:13 to Farnborough, although services beyond Farnborough to Frimley are only once per hour. Trips travelling north-east of Fleet and north-west of Fleet, and within Fleet will all utilise the 73 service. This could mean the service is estimated to attract a minimum of 28 additional trips in scenario 1 with low mode share during the AM peak or a worst case of 58 additional trips as a result of scenario 2 with high mode share. 4.3.10 Currently for those travelling south east from the development will need to change services at Church Crookham or Fleet, to catch the 70 or 71 which offer hourly services during the AM peak to Aldershot and Farnham respectively. As the development builds out there is a potential for existing services to deviate from their current routing to call at the development.

Table 4.8 West Fleet Development Area Bus Trips (7-9am)

Bus Patronage Fleet - West Fleet Low High Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Direction of travel 1 2 1 2 Fleet Town Centre 6 3 13 6 Fleet Station 3 2 7 3 Church Crookham 0 0 0 0 Fleet 5 2 10 5 South East 11 5 21 10 North East 13 6 26 12 North West 5 2 10 5 Total 43 21 87 40

50400036 Hart District Local Plan Public Transport Assessment 17

4.3.11 Table 4.8 shows most bus trips from the West Fleet development travel south east towards Aldershot and north east towards Farnborough, Camberley and Frimley. Those travelling south east will be able to use the 71 service which runs hourly, although there will be a need to change services to reach Aldershot. Those travelling north east of the development will need to change services at Fleet town centre and travel onward using the 73 and 82 services. Increased numbers of trips travelling southeast and those travelling to or interchanging at Fleet town centre may place increased pressure on the 71 and 72 services, contributing between an estimated 30 trips (scenario 1 low mode share) and 28 (scenario 2 high mode share) during the AM peak. 4.3.12 Those travelling north-west can utilise the 72 service which runs hourly through Hartley Wintney and towards Reading. Table 4.9 Fleet Town Centre Development Area Bus Trips (7-9am)

Fleet - Town Centre/ Bus Patronage Other development Low High Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Direction of travel 1 2 1 2 Fleet Town Centre 4 5 8 9 Fleet Station 2 3 4 5 Church Crookham 0 0 0 0 Fleet 3 4 6 8 South East 6 8 13 16 North East 8 10 16 20 North West 3 4 6 8 Total 26 33 53 65

4.3.13 Table 4.9 shows the bus usage associated with the Fleet town Centre development result in additional trips travelling primarily south-east towards Aldershot and north-east towards Farnborough. The development has access to both the 70 and 73 services, providing access to both of the most popular areas with the fewest number of changes. Table 4.10 Guillemont Park Development Area Bus Trips (7-9am)

Bus Patronage Guillemont Park Low High Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Direction of travel 1 2 1 2 West 0 0 0 0 South 2 0 4 0 East 4 0 9 0 Total 6 0 14 0

4.3.14 Table 4.10 shows the there are few bus trips resulting from the Guillemont Park Development, with most trips travelling east towards Camberley utilising the number 2 service (which operates between Farnborough, Frimley and Camberley). The worst case scenario is estimated to add an additional 9 trips to this service which is unlikely to have a significant impact.

50400036 Hart District Local Plan Public Transport Assessment 18

Table 4.11 Yateley Development Area Bus Trips (7-9am)

Bus Patronage Yateley Low High Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Direction of travel 1 2 1 2 Internalised/ rail station 0 1 1 2 West 1 2 2 5 South 0 1 0 1 East 4 10 7 19 Total 5 14 9 27

4.3.15 Table 4.11 shows the Yateley development to have most bus trips travelling east towards Camberley, Farnborough and Inner London via Farnborough main rail station. Most trips are expected to travel via the number 82 and 3 services, although the additional development trips travelling on this service are only expected to cause an impact with the Scenario 2 housing numbers, with the high mode share causing the highest number of trips.

Table 4.12 Hartley Wintney Development Area Bus Trips (7-9am)

Bus Patronage Hartley Wintney Low High Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Direction of travel 1 2 1 2 Internalised/ rail station 2 2 3 4 North West 0 0 0 0 North East 2 2 3 4 South East 7 9 14 18 South West 2 3 5 6 Total 13 16 26 32

4.3.16 Table 4.12 shows the greatest bus trip demand is travelling east towards Fleet and Farnborough utilising the number 72 service, which provides an hourly service. Although there is demand for north-east and south-west movements from the development, the 211 and 100 services which serve Hartley Wintney do not offer peak hour services during this period and therefore currently these movements are not catered for.

50400036 Hart District Local Plan Public Transport Assessment 19

Table 4.13 Odiham Development Area Bus Trips (7-9am)

Bus Patronage Odiham Low High Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Direction of travel 1 2 1 2 Internalised/ rail station 1 2 2 3 North 6 9 12 17 South 0 0 0 0 Total 7 10 14 20

4.3.17 Table 4.13 shows the bus trips from Odiham developments to travel mostly north towards Basingstoke utilising the number 10 service which is hourly and likely to cater for the calculated demand.

SUMMARY 4.3.18 In summary the bus services likely to be impacted by the developments coming forward are the 71, 82, 72 and 70 primarily from the addition of trips from developments in Fleet. The cumulative impact of these additional trips from these developments is likely to put increased pressure on existing services and is likely to result in services being revised or enhanced. There is some demand shown for journeys from developments in Hook, Hartley Wintney and Yateley which is currently not catered for. 4.3.19 The next stage of work would review how the existing bus network could be enhanced to cater for the additional demand for bus from planned development in Hart.

50400036 Hart District Local Plan Public Transport Assessment 20

5 Summary

5.1 SUMMARY 5.1.1 Within this study two housing scenarios have been tested:

Scenario 1: Hart District LDF Core Strategy with a broad distribution of future residential developments (as identified in LDF Core Strategy Preferred Approach for Consultation July 2011).

Scenario 2: Hart District LDF Core Strategy with potential locations for future development sites identified sufficient to provide 317 new homes per year* (provided by HDC). * To meet the 2011 zero net migration population projections for Hart supplied by Hampshire County Council would require the provision of 317 new homes annually. This is regarded as a 'worst case scenario'.

5.1.2 For each housing scenario the following mode share scenarios were assessed: Mode of transport Low High Bus 4% 8% Train 6% 12%

Impact on Rail Services 5.1.3 The assessment has shown the greatest number of rail trips forecast is in housing scenario 1 with high rail mode share (12%). In this scenario an additional 317 rail trips are forecast from Fleet station between 7 and 9am in the east bound direction. There are six train services towards London during this period so this additional demand is equivalent to around 53 additional passengers per train. The main impact on rail services of planned development in Hart is anticipated to be the impact on rail station car parks. Impact on Rail Car Parks 5.1.4 The results of this assessment indicate that 139 – 163 trips could be made by car to Fleet Station from planned development in Hart. This total includes those parking and taking journeys by rail in both directions (east and west bound). Surveys undertaken as part of this study have shown that Fleet Station Car Park is already close to, if not at, capacity. 5.1.5 No development trips have been directly associated with Winchfield Rail Station. However, it is possible that residents in new developments to the west of Fleet using rail services may decide to drive to Winchfield rather than Fleet Rail Station. It is recommended that as Transport Assessments are developed for developments in West Fleet that they consider the potential number of journeys that would be made to Winchfield. 5.1.6 The next stage of work will have to consider how best to serve this anticipated additional demand for car parking at Fleet Station. It is recommended that a week long survey is undertaken at Fleet Station Car Park using Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) cameras. These cameras will establish the arrival time and duration of stay of cars currently using the car park and would indicate if any drivers are turning up and not being able to find a space (i.e. latent demand).

50400036 Hart District Local Plan Public Transport Assessment 21

Impact on Bus Services 5.1.7 The bus services likely to be impacted by the developments coming forward are the 71, 82, 72 and 70 primarily from the addition of trips from developments in Fleet. The cumulative impact of these additional trips from these developments is likely to put increased pressure on existing services and is likely to result in services being revised or enhanced. There is some demand shown for journeys from developments in Hook, Hartley Wintney and Yateley which is currently not catered for. Additional demand for bus services is not necessarily detrimental as in the most part development will be an opportunity for bus operators to improve the existing bus network. 5.1.8 The next stage of work would review how the existing bus network could be enhanced to cater for the additional demand for bus from planned development in Hart.

50400036 Hart District Local Plan Public Transport Assessment 22

Appendices, Figures & Tables

Appendix A Revised Housing Distribution

Housing Requirement 2011-2029 4248 Supply & Completions 1949 Residual to Plan for. 2299 Balance 16

Preferred Approach 2006-2028

Planning permissions granted since 1 July 2011 % Level which were not Total of Growth part of the Homes Homes Number of to 2006- supply figure Current Housing Construc Construc dwellings 2029 Strategic Opportunity for Preferred Additions/ Strategic Distribution Stock as ted 2006- ted 2011- predicted under Sites Allocation Total Lost Approach Deletions Sites Total at 2006 2011 2012 Supply by 2029 LDF

Fleet/Church Crookham/Elvetham 1040 653 14118 401 223 1221 16616 18% 2498 Grove Farm 450 -450 0 Edenbrook 250 -23 -57 170 Town Centre 100 150 250 Unallocated 240 -57 50 233

Hook 550 600 2964 165 4 79 3812 29% Unallocated 50 -64 114 100 NE Hook 500 500

Yateley/Blackwater (unallocated) 100 -88 150 162 9901 18 2 148 10231 3%

Guillemont Park 150 150 -150 0 0

Hartley Wintney (unallocated) 100 -5 125 220 2163 60 87 74 2604 20%

Odiham (unallocated) 150 -7 37 180 2002 33 8 48 2271 13%

Rural Areas (unallocated) 350 -10 160 500 4806 60 8 47 5421 13%

2440 -173 -288 336 2315 35954 737 332 1617 40955 14%

Appendix B Existing Public Transport Access Figures

Appendix C Site Visit Summary

EXTERNAL MEMORANDUM

TO WSP UK Ltd Mountbatten House Basing View FROM Alex Smith (WSP), Tom Beck (WSP) Basingstoke Hampshire RG21 4HJ COPIES TO Tel: +44 (0)1256 318800 Fax: +44 (0)1256 318700 DATE 28 February 2012 http://www.wspgroup.com

REF 50400036/APS/2012-02-28

Hart District Railway Station Car Parks and Rail Services

Railway Stations Surveyed;

Observations were taken at the following station on 28 February 2012. The parking observations were noted after peak to assume that the maximum numbers of parked vehicles were present.

- Blackwater Railway Station, London Road, Blackwater - Fleet Railway Station, Station Approach, Fleet - Winchfield Railway Station, Station Road, Winchfield - Hook Railway Station, Station Road, Hook

In addition the current level of usage of rail services between Basingstoke and Farnborough Main was observed.

A description of each station’s parking characteristics has been outlined below.

Blackwater Railway Station;

A number of observations were made that coincided with the scheduled 08:37 train to Reading. Specifically to that train the following was noted; - Train consisted of 3 coaches - Approximately 75-85% seats full in each coach. There were no standing passengers travelling. - 13 people alighted at the stop, approx. 20 people boarded.

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WSP UK Limited | Registered Address WSP House, 70 Chancery Lane, London, WC2A 1AF, UK | Reg No. 01383511 England | WSP Group plc | Offices worldwide

Memorandum continuation

Car Park Overview

The car park overview shows the area considered. The parking immediately opposite the station is noted to be short term, with a 30mins maximum waiting limit.

Total number of available normal spaces was: 72 Total number of normal spaces in car park: 125 spaces Percentage Occupied: 42% The number of free disabled spaces was: 2 At the short stay 30min, number of free spaces: 9

A number of site photos were taken, please see below

Fleet Railway Station;

The parking at Fleet Railway Station is split into two with a long narrow area to the south of the railway and a shorter parking area to the north of the railway

Fleet Car Park Overview

Southern Parking Area In total the number of available normal spaces was: 4 (2 of these were the result of poor parking) The number of free disabled spaces was: 1 Note: 9 free premium parking spaces were free.

Northern Parking Area

2 Memorandum continuation

In total the number of available normal spaces was: 0 (all spaces were taken) The number of free disabled spaces was: 0 (all spaces were taken)

Total number of available normal spaces: 4 Total number of normal spaces in car park: 374 spaces Percentage Occupied: 99%

Winchfield Railway Station;

The parking at Winchfield Railway Station is shown below.

Winchfield Car Park Overview

Parking Area The number of free disabled spaces was: 1 Total number of available normal spaces was: 66 Total number of normal spaces in car park: 250 spaces Percentage Occupied: 74%

Hook Railway Station;

The parking at Hook Railway Station is shown below highlighted in red.

Hook Car Park Overview

Parking Area The number of free disabled spaces was: 2 Short stay, number of free spaces: 3 Total number of available normal spaces was: 72 Total number of normal spaces in car park: 157 spaces Percentage Occupied: 54%

3 Memorandum continuation

The parking area shown in the north west of the snapshot is a pay and display car park for the Raven Hotel. The number of free spaces was recorded as 50.

Rail Service between Basingstoke and Farnborough Main

Information provided by South West Trains (see below) indicated that the busiest train to arrive into London Waterloo before 0900 is the 0728 from Farnborough Main. This is the 0706 from Basingstoke, calling at Hook, Winchfield and Fleet.

‘Getting a Seat’ Poster at Farnborough Main Station

A member of the project team travelled on the 0706 from Basingstoke as far as Farnborough Main. They then observed how busy the next two services were as they came into Farnborough Main (0746 and 0758).

The 0706 departure from Basingstoke was around 10 full as it left Basingstoke. It was around 20% full as it left Hook and around 40 - 50% full as it left Winchfield. When the service left Fleet is was around 70%, with only seats available those between people already sat down. When the service left Farnborough no seats were available and some passengers were having to stand.

The 0746 departure from Farnborough Main appeared to be busier than indicated. Amber (Limited seats available) rather than Green (Seats available).

The 0758 departure from Farnborough Main was as busy as indicated (Amber).

Alex Smith/Tom Beck 28 February 2012

4 Memorandum continuation

Site Observation Pictures

Parking Charges at Blackwater Railway Station

Blackwater Railway Station parking information

Views of Blackwater Parking

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WSP UK Limited | Registered Address WSP House, 70 Chancery Lane, London, WC2A 1AF, UK | Reg No. 01383511 England | WSP Group plc | Offices worldwide

Blackwater - Short Stay Parking Area (note the red car is the staff members)

Parking Charges at Fleet Railway Station

View Taken Looking East at the Southern Parking Area - Fleet

N:\50400036 - Hart LDF Public Transport\TEXT\REPORTS\Hart Railway Stations Parking\2012-02-28 Hart Stations Parking and Rail Services.docx

WSP UK Limited | Registered Address WSP House, 70 Chancery Lane, London, WC2A 1AF, UK | Reg No. 01383511 England | WSP Group plc | Offices worldwide

Memorandum continuation

View Taken Looking West at the Southern Parking Area - Fleet

Fleet – Southern Car Park looking at Disabled and Moped parking area

Fleet – Northern Car Park Looking West

8 Memorandum continuation

Fleet – Northern Car Park, lower area

Winchfield Car Park

9 Memorandum continuation

Winchfield Car Park Looking Back at Station

Winchfield Parking Charges

10 Memorandum continuation

Hook Parking Charges

Hook Car Park

Appendix D Forecast Impact On Rail Services

D1 - Scenario 1 Rail - low mode share 6% (Rail trip distribution) Hart N E S W

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M o t m a r o r o n e e t n g o h r s g r t a e g s r h i m t d n F e o t o o y k d d r d o n d t t s d a e u g f s & n a t l r i l n o e t n r u e i t o e d u n n n E N W l p W o y r n l e l d e r t h r o r m C d t i o d r k i l y o l o a i r r m g r e o o e o a i r g g s o u y y y a L o y h f y a o m s n o a e m o L o a u n h e t c n C C N P W n s s l s g w f u S n n m e e e y e e e h h a i r a o c d i i l l l l r r l l l l b h b o s m k b r s t n k t t t t t k d n d n i r b d R e L W G B t l r g s h k k i n c l t e e e e e a a a g e n n c t e e e e e o i i t o n i r n m u a o r s t t t m t t t t e e r r l n a i o o o d t o a a a i a a a n a e e e e e d u a o u l l i i i i i l r e u a h r a a a a h e o v o o o l l l l l r p a r a a o t Development location Household Numbers Boarding Station Direction n B C C E F F F F F F H H L O Y Y Y B R V W W C C I O R S V V W F F A A F G V P P B V S T T T s E - - 0 - 0 ------2 - 0 ------0 - - - 21 - - - - - 1 1 - - - - 0 0 - - - - - 27 1) Hook 570 Hook 36 12 W ------1 ------8 0 - 9 E - 1 - - 1 - 1 - 1 ------1 - 39 1 - - 1 - 2 2 - 1 - - 1 ------50 2) Fleet – Queen Elizabeth Barracks 872 Fleet 56 28 W ------1 - - - - - 1 1 1 - 1 ------1 2 1 - 7 E - 1 - - 1 - 1 - 1 ------1 - 45 1 - - 1 - 3 2 - 1 - - 1 ------57 3) Fleet – West Fleet 1000 Fleet 64 32 W ------1 - - - - - 1 1 1 - 1 ------1 2 1 - 8 E - 0 - - 1 - 0 - 0 ------0 - 27 1 - - 1 - 2 1 - 0 - - 0 ------34 4) Fleet – Town Centre/Other development 608 Fleet 39 12 W ------1 - - - - - 0 1 0 - 0 ------0 1 0 - 5 E ------0 - 5 1 - - - - - 0 0 ------7 Farnborough Main 3 W ------5) Guillemont Park 150 9 N ------0 0 0 - 1 - - 0 - - - - 0 0 ------2 Farnborough North 1 S ------0 0 ------0 Blackwater S ------0 0 0 ------0 ------0 0 Sandhurst N ------1 - - 0 - - - - 0 0 ------1 0 6) Yateley 112 7 E ------4 1 ------0 - - 0 0 ------5 Farnborough Main 3 W ------0 ------0 Fleet E ------1 ------16 1 ------1 ------17 9 7) Hartley Wintney 309 19 Hook W ------2 - - 2 1 E ------1 - 0 ------7 1 - - 0 - 0 0 - - - - 0 0 - - - - - 10 8) Odiham 162 Hook 10 5 W ------0 ------0 - - 0 - 2 0 - 3 - 2 - 2 - 1 6 - 1 0 0 0 2 5 2 0 3 2 - 164 6 0 0 3 - 8 6 0 2 - 0 3 1 - 2 15 2 -

D2 - Scenario 2 Rail - low mode share 6% (Rail trip distribution) Hart N E S W

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M o t m a r o r o n e e t n g o h r s g r t a e g s r h i m t d n F e o t o o y k d d r d o n d t t s d a e u g f s & n a t l r i l n o e t n r u e i t o e d u n n n E N W l p W o y r n l e l d e r t h r o r m C d t i o d r k i l y o l o a i r r m g r e o o e o a i r g g s o u y y y a L o y h f y a o m s n o a e m o L o a u n h e t c n C C N P W n s s l s g w f u S n n m e e e y e e e h h a i r a o c d i i l l l l r r l l l l b h b o s m k b r s t n k t t t t t k d n d n i r b d R e L W G B t l r g s h k k i n c l t e e e e e a a a g e n n c t e e e e e o i i t o n i r n m u a o r s t t t m t t t t e e r r l n a i o o o d t o a a a i a a a n a e e e e e d u a o u l l i i i i i l r e u a h r a a a a h e o v o o o l l l l l r p a r a a o t Development location Household Numbers Boarding Station Direction n B C C E F F F F F F H H L O Y Y Y B R V W W C C I O R S V V W F F A A F G V P P B V S T T T s E - - 0 - 0 ------2 - 0 ------0 - - - 25 - - - - - 1 2 - - - - 0 0 - - - - - 33 1) Hook 683 Hook 43 14 W ------1 ------9 0 - 11 E - 1 - - 1 - 1 - 1 ------1 - 39 1 - - 1 - 2 2 - 1 - - 1 ------50 2) Fleet – Queen Elizabeth Barracks 872 Fleet 56 28 W ------1 - - - - - 1 1 1 - 1 ------1 2 1 - 7 E - 0 - - 1 - 0 - 0 ------0 - 21 1 - - 1 - 1 1 - 0 - - 0 ------27 3) Fleet – West Fleet 470 Fleet 31 15 W ------1 - - - - - 0 1 0 - 0 ------0 1 0 - 4 E - 0 - - 1 - 0 - 0 ------0 - 33 1 - - 1 - 2 1 - 0 - - 0 ------42 4) Fleet – Town Centre/Other development 755 Fleet 48 15 W ------1 - - - - - 0 1 0 - 0 ------0 1 0 - 6 E ------Farnborough Main - W ------5) Guillemont Park 0 - N ------Farnborough North - S ------Blackwater S ------0 0 0 ------0 ------1 0 Sandhurst N ------2 - - 0 - - - - 0 0 ------2 1 6) Yateley 312 20 E ------12 2 ------0 - - 0 1 ------15 Farnborough Main 8 W ------1 ------1 Fleet E ------1 ------20 1 ------1 ------22 11 7) Hartley Wintney 381 24 Hook W ------2 - - 2 1 E ------1 - 0 ------11 1 - - 0 - 0 0 - - - - 0 0 - - - - - 14 8) Odiham 236 Hook 15 7 W ------0 ------0 - - 1 - 1 0 - 3 - 1 - 1 - 1 6 - 1 0 0 0 1 4 1 0 3 2 - 161 6 0 0 3 - 7 6 0 1 - 0 3 1 - 1 16 2 - D3 - Scenario 1 Rail - high mode share 12% (Rail trip distribution) Hart N E S W

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M o t m a r o r o n e e t n g o h r s g r t a e g s r h i m t d n F e o t o o y k d d r d o n d t t s d a e u g f s & n a t l r i l n o e t n r u e i t o e d u n n n E N W l p W o y r n l e l d e r t h r o r m C d t i o d r k i l y o l o a i r r m g r e o o e o a i r g g s o u y y y a L o y h f y a o m s n o a e m o L o a u n h e t c n C C N P W n s s l s g w f u S n n m e e e y e e e h h a i r a o c d i i l l l l r r l l l l b h b o s m k b r s t n k t t t t t k d n d n i r b d R e L W G B t l r g s h k k i n c l t e e e e e a a a g e n n c t e e e e e o i i t o n i r n m u a o r s t t t m t t t t e e r r l n a i o o o d t o a a a i a a a n a e e e e e d u a o u l l i i i i i l r e u a h r a a a a h e o v o o o l l l l l r p a r a a o t Development location Household Numbers Boarding station Direction n B C C E F F F F F F H H L O Y Y Y B R V W W C C I O R S V V W F F A A F G V P P B V S T T T s E - - 1 - 1 ------4 - 1 ------1 - - - 42 - - - - - 2 3 - - - - 1 1 - - - - - 55 1) Hook 570 Hook 73 23 W ------1 ------16 1 - 18 E - 1 - - 2 - 1 - 1 ------1 - 78 2 - - 2 - 4 3 - 1 - - 1 ------99 2) Fleet – Queen Elizabeth Barracks 872 Fleet 112 56 W ------2 - - - - - 1 2 1 - 1 ------1 3 1 - 13 E - 1 - - 3 - 1 - 1 ------1 - 89 3 - - 3 - 5 4 - 1 - - 1 ------113 3) Fleet – West Fleet 1000 Fleet 129 64 W ------3 - - - - - 1 3 1 - 1 ------1 4 1 - 15 E - 1 - - 2 - 1 - 1 ------1 - 54 2 - - 2 - 3 2 - 1 - - 1 ------68 4) Fleet – Town Centre/Other development 608 Fleet 78 25 W ------2 - - - - - 1 2 1 - 1 ------1 2 1 - 9 E ------1 - 11 2 - - - - - 0 0 ------14 Farnborough Main 7 W ------5) Guillemont Park 150 19 N ------0 0 0 - 2 - - 0 - - - - 0 0 ------3 Farnborough North 2 S ------0 1 ------1 Blackwater S ------0 0 0 ------0 ------1 0 Sandhurst N ------1 - - 0 - - - - 0 0 ------2 1 6) Yateley 112 14 E ------8 1 ------0 - - 0 0 ------11 Farnborough Main 6 W ------1 ------1 Fleet E ------2 ------32 1 ------1 ------36 18 7) Hartley Wintney 309 39 Hook W ------4 - - 4 2 E ------1 - 1 ------14 1 - - 0 - 0 0 - - - - 0 0 - - - - - 19 8) Odiham 162 Hook 20 10 W ------0 ------0 - - 1 0 3 1 - 7 - 3 - 3 - 2 11 - 1 1 1 1 3 9 3 1 5 4 - 329 12 0 0 7 - 15 13 0 3 - 0 6 1 - 3 29 4 -

D4 - Scenario 2 Rail - high mode share 12% (Rail trip distribution) Hart N E S W

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M o t m a r o r o n e e t n g o h r s g r t a e g s r h i m t d n F e o t o o y k d d r d o n d t t s d a e u g f s & n a t l r i l n o e t n r u e i t o e d u n n n E N W l p W o y r n l e l d e r t h r o r m C d t i o d r k i l y o l o a i r r m g r e o o e o a i r g g s o u y y y a L o y h f y a o m s n o a e m o L o a u n h e t c n C C N P W n s s l s g w f u S n n m e e e y e e e h h a i r a o c d i i l l l l r r l l l l b h b o s m k b r s t n k t t t t t k d n d n i r b d R e L W G B t l r g s h k k i n c l t e e e e e a a a g e n n c t e e e e e o i i t o n i r n m u a o r s t t t m t t t t e e r r l n a i o o o d t o a a a i a a a n a e e e e e d u a o u l l i i i i i l r e u a h r a a a a h e o v o o o l l l l l r p a r a a o t Development location Household Numbers Boarding station Direction n B C C E F F F F F F H H L O Y Y Y B R V W W C C I O R S V V W F F A A F G V P P B V S T T T s E - - 1 - 1 ------4 - 1 ------1 - - - 50 - - - - - 3 3 - - - - 1 1 - - - - - 65 1) Hook 683 Hook 87 28 W ------2 ------19 1 - 22 E - 1 - - 2 - 1 - 1 ------1 - 78 2 - - 2 - 4 3 - 1 - - 1 ------99 2) Fleet – Queen Elizabeth Barracks 872 Fleet 112 56 W ------2 - - - - - 1 2 1 - 1 ------1 3 1 - 13 E - 1 - - 1 - 1 - 1 ------1 - 42 1 - - 1 - 2 2 - 1 - - 1 ------53 3) Fleet – West Fleet 470 Fleet 60 30 W ------1 - - - - - 1 1 1 - 1 ------1 2 1 - 7 E - 1 - - 2 - 1 - 1 ------1 - 67 2 - - 2 - 4 3 - 1 - - 1 ------86 4) Fleet – Town Centre/Other development 755 Fleet 97 31 W ------2 - - - - - 1 2 1 - 1 ------1 3 1 - 11 E ------Farnborough Main - W ------5) Guillemont Park 0 - N ------Farnborough North - S ------Blackwater S ------1 1 1 ------0 ------3 1 Sandhurst N ------4 - - 0 - - - - 0 0 ------5 2 6) Yateley 312 38 E ------23 4 ------0 - - 0 1 ------29 Farnborough Main 15 W ------2 ------2 Fleet E ------2 ------39 1 ------1 ------44 22 7) Hartley Wintney 381 48 Hook W ------4 - - 4 2 E ------2 - 1 ------21 2 - - 1 - 1 1 - - - - 1 1 - - - - - 29 8) Odiham 236 Hook 30 15 W ------1 ------1 - - 1 0 3 1 - 6 - 3 - 3 - 2 11 - 2 1 1 1 3 9 3 1 5 4 - 321 12 0 0 6 - 14 12 0 3 - 0 7 1 - 3 32 4 -

Appendix E Forecast Impact On Bus Services

E1 - Scenario 1 Bus - low mode share 4% (Bus trip distribution) Hart N E S W d a e h n e a m r y t d a D i e d o s e h a k l e n o d n i h n t k l r o t n d a t h n a t s M o t o m r a r o e n o e n g t h s g r a s t e g i r h m d n t F o e o t o y k d d d o n r d t t a s u e g & f n t l r s a i n l o e t n u e r i t e o n d l u n E N W n W p o y l n l t d e e r o C h m r d r o t i d r i l y k o l i a o r r r m e g o e o o i s r u g L g o a h f y y y a m o y s y o n a e m o o L h e o a u t n n C C N P W l s s g w S s u f m n y n e e e e h e a e i h r

a o c d i i l l l l r r l l s l k b b h b m r s t k n t t t t t k n d d n r b d R e L W G B t l r g h i s n c k k t l e e e e e a a g e n n c i t i e e e e e o o i r n n u a o m r s t t t m t t t e e l n r r a o i o o d t o a a a i a a a n e e e e e d u a o u l l i i i i i l r e u a h r a a a a h e o v o o p a l l l l l r a r a o Development location Household Numbers Direction of travel n B C C E F F F F F F H H L O Y Y Y B R V W W C C I O R S V V W F F A A F G V P P B V S T T Internalised/ rail station ------2 ------2 ------5 W ------7 - - 7 1) Hook 570 S ------3 ------3 E - - - - 5 - 2 - - - 2 ------9 24 Fleet Town Centre - - - - 6 ------6 Fleet Station ------1 - - - - 1 - 3 Church Crookham ------2) Fleet – Queen Elizabeth Barracks 872 Fleet ------1 1 1 ------4 SE - - 1 ------8 ------9 NE - - - 1 ------3 ------6 1 ------11 NW ------1 - 1 - - - - - 1 ------4 38 Fleet Town Centre - - - - 6 ------6 Fleet Station ------2 - - - - 2 - 3 Church Crookham ------3) Fleet – West Fleet 1000 Fleet ------2 2 2 ------5 SE - - 2 ------9 ------11 NE - - - 2 ------3 ------6 2 ------13 NW ------2 - 2 - - - - - 2 ------5 43 Fleet Town Centre - - - - 4 ------4 Fleet Station ------1 - - - - 1 - 2 Church Crookham ------4) Fleet – Town Centre/Other development 608 Fleet ------1 1 1 ------3 SE - - 1 ------5 ------6 NE - - - 1 ------2 ------4 1 ------8 NW ------1 - 1 - - - - - 1 ------3 26 W ------0 - 0 5) Guillemont Park 150 S ------1 0 - - 0 - - 0 - 0 - - 0 ------2 E - - - 0 ------0 0 - 1 - 0 - - 2 ------0 ------4 6 Internalised ------0 0 ------0 W - - - 0 ------1 - 0 ------1 6) Yateley 112 S ------0 - - - - 0 - 0 E ------2 - 1 0 - - 0 - - 0 0 0 ------4 5 Internalised ------2 ------2 NW ------7) Hartley Wintney 309 NE - - - 2 ------2 SE - - - - 2 - 1 ------1 ------1 1 ------7 SW ------1 ------1 - - 2 13 Internalised ------1 ------1 8) Odiham 162 N ------1 - - - - 1 ------4 - - 6 S ------7 Total - - 4 6 23 - 8 4 4 - 8 4 4 4 0 0 - 1 4 0 - - 13 - 2 3 - - 2 - - 18 6 23 - - 4 - - - 12 4 -

E2 - Scenario 2 Bus - low mode share 4% (Bus trip distribution) Hart N E S W d a e h n e a m r y t d a D i e d o s e h a k l e n o d n i h n t k l r o t n d a t h n a t s M o t o m r a r o e n o e n g t h s g r a s t e g i r h m d n t F o e o t o y k d d d o n r d t t a s u e g & f n t l r s a i n l o e t n u e r i t e o n d l u n E N W n W p o y l n l t d e e r o C h m r d r o t i d r i l y k o l i a o r r r m e g o e o o i s r u g L g o a h f y y y a m o y s y o n a e m o o L h e o a u t n n C C N P W l s s g w S s u f m n y n e e e e h e a e i h r

a o c d i i l l l l r r l l s l k b b h b m r s t k n t t t t t k n d d n r b d R e L W G B t l r g h i s n c k k t l e e e e e a a g e n n c i t i e e e e e o o i r n n u a o m r s t t t m t t t e e l n r r a o i o o d t o a a a i a a a n e e e e e d u a o u l l i i i i i l r e u a h r a a a a h e o v o o p a l l l l l r a r a o Development location Household Numbers Direction of travel n B C C E F F F F F F H H L O Y Y Y B R V W W C C I O R S V V W F F A A F G V P P B V S T T Internalised/ rail station ------3 ------3 ------6 W ------8 - - 8 1) Hook 683 S ------4 ------4 E - - - - 6 - 3 - - - 3 ------11 29 Fleet Town Centre - - - - 6 ------6 Fleet Station ------1 - - - - 1 - 3 Church Crookham ------2) Fleet – Queen Elizabeth Barracks 872 Fleet ------1 1 1 ------4 SE - - 1 ------8 ------9 NE - - - 1 ------3 ------6 1 ------11 NW ------1 - 1 - - - - - 1 ------4 38 Fleet Town Centre - - - - 3 ------3 Fleet Station ------1 - - - - 1 - 2 Church Crookham ------3) Fleet – West Fleet 470 Fleet ------1 1 1 ------2 SE - - 1 ------4 ------5 NE - - - 1 ------2 ------3 1 ------6 NW ------1 - 1 - - - - - 1 ------2 21 Fleet Town Centre - - - - 5 ------5 Fleet Station ------1 - - - - 1 - 3 Church Crookham ------4) Fleet – Town Centre/Other development 755 Fleet ------1 1 1 ------4 SE - - 1 ------7 ------8 NE - - - 1 ------3 ------5 1 ------10 NW ------1 - 1 - - - - - 1 ------4 33 W ------5) Guillemont Park 0 S ------E ------Internalised ------1 1 ------1 W - - - 1 ------1 - 0 ------2 6) Yateley 312 S ------0 - - - - 0 - 1 E ------5 - 1 1 - - 1 - - 1 1 0 ------10 14 Internalised ------2 ------2 NW ------7) Hartley Wintney 381 NE - - - 2 ------2 SE - - - - 3 - 1 ------1 ------1 1 ------9 SW ------1 ------1 - - 3 16 Internalised ------2 ------2 8) Odiham 236 N ------2 - - - - 2 ------5 - - 9 S ------10 Total - - 4 6 22 - 8 4 4 - 9 4 4 5 1 1 - 1 4 0 - - 12 - 3 3 - - 2 - - 16 6 21 - - 4 - - - 15 4 - E3 - Scenario 1 Bus - high mode share 8% (Bus trip distribution) Hart N E S W d a e h n e a m r y t d a D i e o d s e a k h l o e n d n i h n t k l r o t n d a t h a n t s M t o

m r a o r o e e

t n n g o h s g r a s t e g r h i m t d n o t F e o k o y d d r d o n d t t a s u g e & f s n t l a r i n l o e t u n r e i o e t d u n n n E N W l p W o n y l l e d e r t o r h m r C d t

o i d r i k o l y l i o a r r r m g e o o e o i s r g g o u a L h f y y y a o m o y s y n o a e m o L e o a u h t n C C N P W n l s s g s u w S f m n y n e e e e h e a i h e r a o c d i i l l l l r r l l b b h b s m l k r s t n k t t t t t n k d d n r b d R e L W G B l r t g i h k k s n c l t e e e e e a a g e n n c e e e e e i t o i i o n r n u a o m r s t t t m t t t e e r r l n a i o o o d t o a a a i a a a n e e e e e d u u a o l l i i i i i l r e u a h r a a a a h e o v o o l l l l l r p a r a a o

Development location Household Numbers n B C C E F F F F F F H H L O Y Y Y B R V W W C C I O R S V V W F F A A F G V P P B V S T T Internalised/ rail station ------5 ------5 ------10 W ------14 - - 14 1) Hook 570 S ------6 ------6 E - - - - 9 - 5 - - - 5 ------19 48 Fleet Town Centre - - - - 11 ------11 Fleet Station ------3 - - - - 3 - 6 Church Crookham ------2) Fleet – Queen Elizabeth Barracks 872 Fleet ------3 3 3 ------9 SE - - 3 ------15 ------18 NE - - - 3 ------6 ------11 3 ------23 NW ------3 - 3 - - - - - 3 ------9 75 Fleet Town Centre - - - - 13 ------13 Fleet Station ------3 - - - - 3 - 7 Church Crookham ------3) Fleet – West Fleet 1000 Fleet ------3 3 3 ------10 SE - - 3 ------18 ------21 NE - - - 3 ------7 ------13 3 ------26 NW ------3 - 3 - - - - - 3 ------10 87 Fleet Town Centre - - - - 8 ------8 Fleet Station ------2 - - - - 2 - 4 Church Crookham ------4) Fleet – Town Centre/Other development 608 Fleet ------2 2 2 ------6 SE - - 2 ------11 ------13 NE - - - 2 ------4 ------8 2 ------16 NW ------2 - 2 - - - - - 2 ------6 53 W ------0 - 0 5) Guillemont Park 150 S ------1 1 - - 1 - - 1 - 0 - - 0 ------4 E - - - 1 ------1 1 - 1 - 0 - - 5 ------1 ------9 14 Internalised ------0 0 ------1 W - - - 0 ------1 - 0 ------2 6) Yateley 112 S ------0 - - - - 0 - 0 E ------3 - 1 0 - - 0 - - 1 1 0 ------7 9 Internalised ------3 ------3 NW ------7) Hartley Wintney 309 NE - - - 3 ------3 SE - - - - 5 - 2 ------2 ------2 2 ------14 SW ------2 ------2 - - 5 26 Internalised ------2 ------2 8) Odiham 162 N ------2 - - - - 2 ------7 - - 12 S ------14 Total - - 8 13 45 - 15 8 8 - 17 7 8 8 1 1 - 2 8 0 - - 25 - 5 6 - - 3 - - 35 12 46 - - 9 - - - 24 9 -

E4 - Scenario 2 Bus - high mode share 8% (Bus trip distribution) Hart N E S W d a e h n e a m r y t d a D i e o d s e a k h l o e n d n i h n t k l r o t n d a t h a n t s M t o

m r a o r o e e

t n n g o h s g r a s t e g r h i m t d n o t F e o k o y d d r d o n d t t a s u g e & f s n t l a r i n l o e t u n r e i o e t d u n n n E N W l p W o n y l l e d e r t o r h m r C d t

Development location Household Numbers n B C C E F F F F F F H H L O Y Y Y B R V W W C C I O R S V V W F F A A F G V P P B V S T T Internalised/ rail station ------6 ------6 ------11 W ------17 - - 17 1) Hook 683 S ------7 ------7 E - - - - 11 - 6 - - - 6 ------22 58 Fleet Town Centre - - - - 11 ------11 Fleet Station ------3 - - - - 3 - 6 Church Crookham ------2) Fleet – Queen Elizabeth Barracks 872 Fleet ------3 3 3 ------9 SE - - 3 ------15 ------18 NE - - - 3 ------6 ------11 3 ------23 NW ------3 - 3 - - - - - 3 ------9 75 Fleet Town Centre - - - - 6 ------6 Fleet Station ------2 - - - - 2 - 3 Church Crookham ------3) Fleet – West Fleet 470 Fleet ------2 2 2 ------5 SE - - 2 ------8 ------10 NE - - - 2 ------3 ------6 2 ------12 NW ------2 - 2 - - - - - 2 ------5 40 Fleet Town Centre - - - - 9 ------9 Fleet Station ------3 - - - - 3 - 5 Church Crookham ------4) Fleet – Town Centre/Other development 755 Fleet ------3 3 3 ------8 SE - - 3 ------13 ------16 NE - - - 3 ------5 ------9 3 ------20 NW ------3 - 3 - - - - - 3 ------8 65 W ------5) Guillemont Park 0 S ------E ------Internalised ------1 1 ------2 W - - - 1 ------3 - 1 ------5 6) Yateley 312 S ------1 - - - - 1 - 1 E ------10 - 3 1 - - 1 - - 2 2 1 ------19 27 Internalised ------4 ------4 NW ------7) Hartley Wintney 381 NE - - - 4 ------4 SE - - - - 6 - 3 ------3 ------3 3 ------18 SW ------3 ------3 - - 6 32 Internalised ------3 ------3 8) Odiham 236 N ------3 - - - - 3 ------11 - - 17 S ------20 Total - - 7 12 43 - 16 7 7 - 17 9 7 11 1 1 - 3 7 1 - - 24 - 6 7 - - 4 - - 31 12 40 - - 8 - - - 30 8 -