V22, N40 Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Sen. Young weighs GOP health plan Freshman Republican studies Senate plan, says CBO score will be part of his calculation as Obamacare implodes By BRIAN A. HOWEY – Last Friday morning, Howey Politics listened to U.S. Sen. speak before the Veterans of Foreign Wars, calling for an Authoriza- tion of Use of Military Force that can be used against al Qaeda, the and ISIS. “We can’t duck our war-making responsibilities anymore. Congress cannot continue to delegate war powers to the president.” But as he spoke those words, a domestic May 4. At this writing, at least five senators say they are war brewed on Capitol Hill. Senate Republicans unveiled against the “discussion draft” and while Young said that its version of the Obamacare replace/repeal and Major- the Senate must act, he says he’s in the undecided col- ity Leader Mitch McConnell will seek a vote this week. umn. The Senate plan is built on similar contours of the House Continued on page 3 American Health Care Act that passed by a single vote on Team Holcomb data sets By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – At the 2014 Indiana Republican Convention in Fort Wayne, as looked on from the dias behind him, Republican National Committee Chair- man Reince Priebus recalled a conversation he had with a donor who said after the Mitt “I don’t think being a sitting Romney presidential debacle in 2012, “If you’re not going to be member of Congress is the best big and bold, then don’t waste advantage. The public is very my time.” Priebus explained, “I’ve dissatisfied with Congress.” never stopped thinking about that conversation. We can’t - State Sen. , telling simply be a mid-term party. We HPI he sees a ‘conservative have to be a presidential party. We have to grow. We have to lane’ in the U.S. Senate race. get 60 million people to come to He will decide by fall. the polls in 2016 so we cannot Page 2 just save our party, we’re going to be tional Twitter and rally campaign, with big and bold to save this country.” many convinced that he could never And Priebus vowed to spend compete with the Obama era data set $35 million for a data upgrade. “You the Democrats thought they had. But have to have a national party that’s the foundation that Chairman Prie- competent in digital and data, be- bus put in motion gave the GOP data cause we are only ones who can hand sets to pull away in Florida and win it off to the federal candidate. So you Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylva- have to have a national party that nia, creating the biggest presidential understands that you have to get your upset in history. The conventional Howey Politics Indiana act together slicing and dicing the wisdom was that the data advantage WWHowey Media, LLC 405 electorate and know what the data is forged by Barack Obama in 2008 and Massachusetts Ave., Suite and have the messag- 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 es catered to the right people, depending on www.howeypolitics.com who you’re communi- cating to. Consumer Brian A. Howey, Publisher data sets. What does Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington the census data say? Jack E. Howey, Editor Who’s turning in an ab- sentee ballot in every Mary Lou Howey, Editor day? Who’s requested Mark Curry, photography a ballot but didn’t turn it in so I can knock on Subscriptions their door? These are the things a competent HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 party does.” HPI Weekly, $350 Priebus, of Ray Volpe, Account Manager course, is now chief of 317.602.3620 staff to President Don- email: [email protected] ald Trump, who won 62.98 million votes, At the 2014 Indiana Republican Convention in Fort Wayne, compared to 65.85 mil- RNC Chairman Reince Priebus lays out his GOP data plans Contact HPI lion for Hillary Clinton. that helped fuel the 2016 upset by President Trump, as Eric [email protected] But the targeted RNC Holcomb listened. (HPI Photos by Brian A. Howey) data allowed Trump Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 to pick off the “blue wall” states of perfected in 2012 would give Hillary Washington: 202.256.5822 Wisconsin, Michigan and . Clinton the advantage in 2016. But Business Office: 317.602.3620 Holcomb is now Gov. Priebus and the RNC outmanuvered Holcomb, another upset beneficiary their counterparts. © 2017, Howey Politics of the RNC data, and tonight at the Hupfer told HPI on Mon- Lucas Estate in Carmel, he will kick day that “Team Holcomb” will use Indiana. All rights reserved. off “Team Holcomb” before a crowd of the RNC’s state-of-the-art data and Photocopying, Internet forward- donors and activists approaching 500. micro target voters in 2018, 2019 and ing, faxing or reproducing in It will be a joint fundraising strategy 2020. “Our IT and data is flourishing,” any form, whole or part, is a between his reelection campaign and Hupfer explained. “We’ve got a lot of violation of federal law without the . It will the back office stuff on IT done. It’s split funds 70/30% between his cam- enhanced that capability. And we’re permission from the publisher. paign and the state party. “It allows working hand in hand with the RNC us to streamline a lot of operations,” which is proving to have just a vastly said Republican Chairman Kyle Hupfer. superior data system than anyone else “We’re going to be doing many events in the country, including the DNC.” jointly from a fundraising perspective; Hupfer points to last week’s take advantage of synergy between special election in ’s 6th CD. governor’s activities and that of the An Atlanta Constitution-Journal Poll state party.” taken during the last weekend showed Trump waged an unconven- Democrat Jon Ossoff with a 7% lead, Page 3 but on election night, Republican Karen run an amazingly unconventional cam- Handel won by 5%. “Once again, they were paign. right in Georgia when everybody else was “Absolutely,” Hupfer said. “In the either wrong in reporting what they saw or key targeted states, the RNC was playing were intentionally being misleading,” Hupfer heavy on the data side, moving voters said. “But clearly the folks who are right are in key ways from what we observed in the RNC time and time again.” those last couple of months. If you look, Had the RNC’s data improved by Florida was in a good place two or three quantum leaps between 2012 and 2016? months before the election and obviously “Absolutely,” Hupfer responded. the list you have (Wisconsin, Michigan and “Their accuracy in key targeted races was Pennsylvania) as well. It’s a very targeted almost unbelievable. Their depth on a voter- methodology that is going to continue to by-voter basis is unrivaled. I don’t know how be enhanced.” Hupfer said that the RNC’s much further it can go, but they are certainly IT staff has “already been in three times Indiana Republican Chairman the leader of the pack and are not slow- in Indiana to talk to us, including some Kyle Hupfter. (HPI Photo by Brian ing down from either a data or fundraising heavy training. This 2018 race is a chance A. Howey) standpoint. The RNC continues to outclip the for Indiana to embrace this data across the DNC, I think by $6 million to $7 million last month. What’s board so statewide candidates, caucuses would all move to great about that is on the RNC side, it is increasingly small the RNC data center. This is a chance with all the boots on dollar donors who are supporting the president. I don’t see the ground to take Indiana’s data and just have so much any sign of that slowing down.” more volume of information in-puted so we can have that Hupfer said the data has allowed the Indiana Re- for 2019 and 2020 as well.” publican Party to raise in the past four months more than Hupfer believes that in what HPI has described it did during the 2016 presidential year, much of it coming as the coming $100 million U.S. Senate race, the RNC data from those “small donors” who want to support President shared with Team Holcomb can enhance the eventually Trump and Vice President . U.S. Senate nominee as well as the ticket that will include Essentially, the Priebus-era GOP data foundation Secretary of State Connie Lawson, Treasurer gave the Trump/Pence ticket a bedrock that allowed him to and and Auditor . v

could end right there. Sen. Young, from page 1 For nearly an hour, HPI discussed the On Monday, after the Congressional Budget Office coming health care vote, its impact on hundreds of thou- scoring revaled 22 million Americans could lose coverage sands of , and the prospects for other domestic though it would cut $320 billion in budget priorities of President Trump, including expenses over the next decade, Young tax reform, the debt ceiling vote, and an reacted, saying “The CBO score is one of infrastructure program. This interview is many data points I’ll look at when making presented below. my decision. It has value, but it also has In the next HPI weekly edition, limitations, not the least of which is how we’ll follow up with Sen. Young on interna- profoundly the continued unraveling of tional and intelligence issues. Obamacare will affect Hoosiers.” HPI: What is your take on the David Nather of Axios observed Senate Republican health care plan? I today: Unless Senate Majority Leader Mitch haven’t seen your name on any no-vote McConnell can change some of his mem- lists so I assume you’re going to support bers’ minds pretty quickly, it’s looking like it. he might not have the 50 votes he’d need Young: I am officially undecided. for a procedural motion that would bring his I’m still reviewing the package. I’ve been health care bill to the floor. The CBO’s esti- in contact with the governor, having con- mate that 22 million more people would be versations with him and his folks. I’ve been uninsured under the Senate bill was a steep — and maybe in contact with our insurance commissioners, state actuar- fatal — setback. The proof: Sen. tweeted ies. We’re trying to get a sense now that text is available. that she’ll vote against the procedural motion to bring up We’re in touch with health care providers, patient groups. the bill on Wednesday. Others have been making noise, I’m just trying to make the most informed decision I can. too. If enough Republicans vote against it, the whole effort I know this: Doing nothing is not an option. We’ve got 70 Page 4 million Americans who live in geography where there is no coming months, but I think it would be irresponsible for us choice. not to try and improve on the current system. I hope this HPI: Are you talking about the 47 counties na- bill does. There’s a lot of positives to it. tionally with no coverage? HPI: The sins of 2009 and 2010 were that the Young: No, 70 million Americans have no choice. ACA was developed in secret and was a gigantic case of They either have one or none at all. That’s no competition, social reengineering occurring on a partyline vote. The that leads to higher premiums, no consumer choice, all the Republicans appear to be repeating those sins today. negative things that tend to be associated with the exist- Young: The process is highly imperfect. I’ve done ing law. Here in Indiana, we have 63 counties where there what I could to reach out to members on the other side is no choice, already. That number just may well grow. To of the aisle. Candid conversations they shared indicate the say that what we have now just requires some tweaking I political atmosphere was not conducive to a path to vic- find …. tory right now. With this many Hoosiers without consumer HPI: The tweaking should have occurred five or choice, I feel I have to act and have a responsibility to do six years ago, but everyone dug in and this is where we’re so. We’re doing the best we can. We’re making a down at. payment on a promise many of us have made to Hoosiers Young: Yeah. That’s water under the bridge. I to act boldly and reform this health care system. don’t want to get into finger-pointing but there was an HPI: What happens to HIP 2.0, which has been opportunity to tweak. That time has passed. We need to universally praised? The governor has said that’s a priority. act. That means regulatory action; that will mean subsequent legislative action, because now what we’re primarily engaged in is trying to shore up the markets and reform the financing of health care. We’re not reforming the delivery of health care, and that’s where the real cost curve bending will be realized. That takes 60 votes to reform the delivery of health care. It’s incredibly complicated to do this. We should probably over years develop thorough flexible and rigorous policies to telemedicine. We’re still learning about these things. I know there’s still a large degree of agreement on some of these issues, because I’m the only U.S. senator to my knowledge who has called every member on the other side of the aisle on the phone, written them a letter solicit- ing their ideas. I didn’t connect with everyone but U.S. Sen. Todd Young during his HPI Interview with Publisher Brian A. connected with a lot. Value-based care on a fee-for- Howey. (HPI Photos by Mark Curry) service model is generally popular across party lines. That’s a real foundation we can build on. Piloting new But after the House plan passed, we saw potential funding solutions, new preventive measures to improve health challenges for the in the hun- and save money, is generally popular. That means that dreds of millions of dollars. Under the Senate plan, what part of the ACA, the Center for Medicaid Innovation, that happens to HIP 2.0? laboratory of health care delivery, is something we need to Young: The legislative leaders have told me that preserve. That didn’t used to be the Republican position, Medicaid and Medicaid expansion are a priority for them. but I was able to get Secretary Price on the record indi- I think it’s a priority for the people of Indiana. The gov- cating he thinks it needs some reform, but also preserva- ernor has indicated in comments on the AHCA bill that tion. There’s common ground to be found there, a range what he wanted was a glide path into a new system. He of issues where there can be common ground, but there also wanted a more flexibility, because Indiana has done a is a recognition that the political atmosphere is such that good job of crafting our own plan. We provide more flex- Republicans and Democrats aren’t going to come together. ibility, a glide path into a new environment. We’re actually HPI: The proverbial two ships passing in the increasing Medicaid funding at the rate of inflation and night. we’re increasing mental health services within Medicaid. Young: Yeah. Look, there are reasons for that; HPI: The critics of both the House and Senate there’s blame on both sides. Some of it has to do with the plans talk about a transfer of wealth: A big tax cut for the language that public servants use, those in the media, wealthy and longterm cuts in Medicaid to the tune of $880 with respect to our public debates, questioning the mo- billion in the House plan, prompting President Trump to tives of our colleagues. There’s all kinds of factors. The call it “mean.” Is that a fair criticism? environment does not exist right now to act legislatively Young: No. That’s not my reading of the bill at and get up to 60 votes. That environment may change in all. The bill will stabilize the rate of growth on health care Page 5 premiums. There’s more that could be done if we had with a sustainable health care system? They’re starting 60 votes that would stabilize that rate of growth. We are to flee. That’s why Anthem pulled out of the Indiana mar- awaiting projections to see if that rate of growth bends ket. I feel a real bias to act. We’ve seen that days matter. downward. That’s the individual market. With respect to HPI: On the debt ceiling . . . Medicare, we make actually no Young: I’ve always voted for the debt ceiling. We changes. I think these are things pay for our debts. If you don’t vote to raise the debt ceil- most Hoosiers find acceptable. ing, the risk for buying U.S. debt instruments increases With regard to the tax cuts, No. and you increase the national debt. 1 we want a growing economy. HPI: Is there a scenario where there isn’t a vote If we can reduce the medical on the debt ceiling and the government shuts down as device tax, we’ve eliminated that the president suggested last month? to the benefit of Hoosiers. The Young: Anything can happen in Washington. I health insurance tax is one of sure hope not. the drivers of health insurance HPI: I know. I ended a dozen columns and sto- premiums, so I don’t think we’re ries over the last 15 months with “anything can happen” going to tax our way into an and I was right. optimal health care environment. Young: That’s right. I sure hope not. People of Right now we’re dealing with a Indiana didn’t send me to Washington, D.C., to shut down broken system we can’t continue to throw money at. We the fundamental operations of the government. They sent have to fix the system itself. me there to solve problems. HPI: Is President Trump engaged in this process? HPI: What are you working on? It seems to me he’s just reacting, that he just wants a big Young: I’m working on a lot. I’m working to deal. He doesn’t seem to have a grasp of what’s in the increase foreign aid, we have a real interesting initia- law. He celebrates with House Republicans on May 4 and tive on that front, ensuring our State Department and then tells you guys that bill is “mean.” our development agency USAID put together a national Young: The president has delegated authority. diplomacy and development strategy just as the Pentagon Yesterday he spoke commendedly about the Senate bill. does statutorally every four years. It looks like that will Frankly, I’m still studying it and trying to tease out the become law. You’ve heard my emphasis on the authoriza- merits of it. tion of the U.S. use of force. HPI: Is there any scenario where you would vote HPI: Is that going to pass? against it? Young: I think it has a fighting chance. Young: Yes. Absolutely. After studying it if I don’t HPI: What’s the impediment to passage? think it’s right for Hoosiers, then yes, certainly. I’m very Young: It’s difficult defining parameters. Some openminded. people want to establish a firm sunset date, others want HPI: Then you’re going to have a very busy week- it to be a review period. Others prefer none whatsoever end because McConnell is calling this down next week. to send a message that we’re in this for the long haul. And what’s the rush? Why does this vote have to occur Then there are questions on detention policy, whether before July 4? What’s wrong with voting on it July 24? that should be embedded or not. You can legally detain Young: Because I don’t think a whole lot will enemy combatants and gather intelligence from them. change in a couple of weeks; we will have plenty of time Candidly, it’s a lot easier to delegate this authority to the to discuss these issues. We’re reading the text, trying to president. It’s not popular to own a war, but we have a connect our earlier conversations and debates to the text moral and constitutional authority to move forward on and make sure we’re comfortable with various provisions. this front. Domestically, I’m still trying to come up with There has been some openness to receiving new ideas creative and common sense ways to serve the poor, the and amending the text. We have to prepare for that. As vulnerable, the at-risk, whether it’s a clearing house of for the timeline, people forget we’re bumping up against best practices at the federal level that communities and a debt ceiling vote. We want to make sure we keep this states can draw on, or a way of leveraging the power of government funded. We want to get tax reform done. And public and private partnerships to serve those popula- the American people expect an effort at an infrastructure tions. I’ll be spending August visiting distressed and low- package. So there’s a very ambitious agenda ahead of income communities with low rates of business develop- us. That’s why there’s an imperative to act. Moreover, the ment and high rates of unemployment to learn what kind health insurance markets are collapsing. People diagnose of government assistance can help these areas. I want to this differently. My diagnosis is that Obamacare is in a learn more about the concerns, aspirations and opportu- death spiral and insurers are starting to question whether nities facing these communities. This will be an ongoing Congress is going to be able to fix Obamacare or to repeal effort. and replace it. I try to stay away from the divisive lan- HPI: President Trump, Vice President Pence and guage. The real question is: Are you going to come up Speaker Ryan have all been talking about tax reform, and Page 6 that’s something you and I have been talking about for the part of this package. That’s not to say it has to be com- last five years. Will you play a role in that? pletely revenue neutral as scored by the Congressional Young: Yes. I think I have an ability to play an Budget Office, because they don’t take into account the out-sized role within the Republican conference on the growth effects. But we can’t have completely unrealistic Senate side. I sat on the tax-writing committee over in the growth expectations. House, worked with many of those individuals. There are HPI: Would 2.5% to 3% be realistic? bipartisan and bicameral conversations to have, so I could Young: Yes. I’m not certain where the red line is play a positive role there. I have better than a semblence but I’m going to be pushing for modest expectations with of some of the issues at stake here on tax provisions that the understanding I’ve never gotten everything I’ve want- are important to Hoosiers and their priorities. A couple of ed. I think simplicity should be our lodestar, rate reduction years ago I conducted a tour of regional chambers of com- will be a byproduct. And then with international taxa- merce to talk about these issues. tion, we need to stop double taxing profits of U.S. based HPI: Are the contours taking shape on tax re- multi-national corporations. They earn profits overseas and form? President Trump cites legislation advancing, but they don’t repatriate them because they’re not only taxed there isn’t a bill. in the host country, but the United States uniquely also Young: I can speak more confidently about what taxes profits when they are repatriated and this leads to is unlikely to happen. a lockout effect where we have stranded capital overseas. HPI: Did tax reform come up when you had din- We have an opportunity for more favorable treatment and ner with the president at the White House? parity with our economic competitors by changing that Young: This did not. I think it’s unlikely that system. Money will come back, and this may be a political Congress will assume a featured growth rate of 5%, which deal to be reached across party lines. A portion of that re- is what the administration’s assumptions were. My pref- patriated capital could be dedicated toward infrastructure. erence is to have a more modest assumption of growth That’s the third leg of the Trump agenda – health care, rates, given that we’re $20 trillion in the hole as a country. tax reform and infrastructure – though there is not a lot We don’t want to blow a big hole in the budget. That said, of clarity on what that infrastructure plan will look like. It’s I do think that some measure of dynamic scoring, which mostly public/private partnerships, but this could provide takes into account growth effects of increases should be additional capital.v

2017 LEGISLATIVE VOTE ANALYSIS

DID YOUR LEGISLATORS SUPPORT A PRO-JOBS, PRO-ECONOMY AGENDA? Check out the scores at www.indianachamber.com/lva Page 7

market. Others are all marketing, as in the expression, “all The problem with KISS hat, no cowboy.” Today we have a president who clearly took By to heart the business sales message technique of “Keep FORT WAYNE – As kids, my sister Nancy and I It Simple Stupid,” carried to an extreme. Let’s take, for sorted returnable pop bottles at our family’s general store example (there are many from which to choose), the for 35 cents a day. It may not seem like much, but I could president’s promise to build a wall along the border with purchase a box of baseball card packs for about $1.75, Mexico. Rather than editorializing, let me quote from which is where my money went. My parents tried to lure his former mega-fan Ann Coulter’s recent tweet rants. me away from baseball obsession by offering to pay half “Today’s BORDER WALL CONSTRUCTION UPDATE: Miles of any non-fiction, non-sports completed yesterday – Zero; Miles completed since Inau- books I purchased. Early busi- guration – Zero. NEXT UPDATE TOMORROW.” ness acumen led me toward Another: “This daily Trump melodrama is worth history and political books. it ONLY if he’s really going to build a wall, cut off Muslim But our family was in the refugees and deport illegals.” And another zinger: “Any- furniture business, not politics one in a Southwestern state who strolls to the border and or baseball. So my dad decided drops a brick will have done more to build the wall than to pay me a dollar for each @realDonaldTrump.” Ann Coulter, who had been one of motivational record I’d listen to. Trump’s most vocal supports, is worried that Trump KISS Things like “Acres of Diamonds” message may not have been based upon a more complex and “Think and Grow Rich.” thought process. The real money bomb was an The president is learning, maybe, some basic entire album of KISS talks: things such as that each part of the border is different. “Keep It Simple Stupid.” The Different types of fencing are needed for different soils. U.S. Navy originated the phrase to stress that simplicity For example, the Yuma, Ariz., area has a “floating fence” should be the goal in design and unnecessary complex- because of shifting sand dunes. The Lower Rio Grande ity should be avoided. My dad had been a naval officer so River along the /Mexico border is the most difficult obviously was attracted to the idea. Me, not so much. to control. It is the most direct route north from Mexican My good friend Steve Largent used to joke that if population centers. Central American and South America you asked Souder what time it was, he told you how they immigrants cross in that area. In the valley, the Rio Grande built the watch. While I am perfectly capable of coming up is a never-ending series of S curves. For many miles, with simplistic twits and tweets, catchy marketing phrases, the fence (i.e. wall) has to be BEHIND the Border Patrol and 30-second ads, it is not the way I gen- erally talk and write. However, the idea of KISS was not to reject complexity. For example, in the construction of an aircraft carrier, let’s hope that there is in-depth engineering develop- ment behind every pump and each bolt. What the Navy meant was that, depend- ing upon the ability of the person you are addressing to comprehend (or needs to know), simplify your message so they can understand it. In retailing, some people abused the concept by deciding that they should only “sell the sizzle not the steak.” This soon translated into lots of gimmicky phras- es and sophisticated wording on menus, with not enough people worrying about the quality of the steak. The transition to politics is really simple: Elections are the marketing division of govern- agents. ment. Ideally, the marketing division is connected to the Furthermore, from the California coast to Browns- production division, but in the private sector we see many ville there are hundreds of miles where there are minimal businesses fold because these two things are not connect- roads near the border. To better control it, there must ed. Some, with a good product, fold because they can’t be not only more fencing but many more agents, more Page 8 electronic surveillance, more that people believe market- drones, and other assets or ing slogans are not the tip a “wall” of any type is irrel- of an iceberg but the entire evant. I fought for every mile iceberg. If so, we are going of the current fence, but also to ping-pong between the for all the other parts. Bernie Sanders Warren and When the Republicans Trump-style responses, as took over Congress in 1995 things deteriorate. with as president, In ’ we forced the doubling of Senate office, we used to the Border Patrol agents have a 1-5-20 rule. Have from 5,000 to 10,000. Under a one-page summary, but President Bush, we doubled have five pages in case he it again to 20,000. Under had more questions. And President Obama it remained he wanted to know that pretty stable, but, ironically, there were 20 behind it under Trump, if anything in case we decided to go there is slippage right now. Rhetoric is not action. to battle on an issue. Sometimes it seems as if the White We cannot logically, and fairly, deal with the House is functioning with a 1-1-1 rule. Or tweet-tweet- “status” question until the border is more controlled. We tweet. have made progress, actually a lot, but we do not yet have If voters and those who seek to get elected keep control of our nation’s borders. If you give any variation of acting as the solutions are actually simple, then the point amnesty without the border being more established, we of “keeping it simple stupid” in communications merely will soon have millions more here illegally who think that drops the “simple” part. v they too will get status. The fundamental political question today, on both Souder is a former Repbllican congressman from sides, is whether or not politics has become so ideological Indiana Page 9

cause they’re idiots.” He said that Carmel Redevelopment Delph sees a Commission Executive Director Corrie Meyer, who declared for the seat, “will not sell well in Indianapolis or Carmel.” And, Delph said, the fact that the Republican ma- ‘conservative lane’ jorities voted for 45 tax and fee increases sets him apart. “I voted against most of them,” Delph said. “Back in the in U.S. Senate race 1980s, you would have been primaried for most of those votes.” By BRIAN A. HOWEY Delph said his decision “won’t be a long, drawn- INDIANAPOLIS – Vowing to keep his options open out process. Going into the fall, we’ll know what we’re for 2018, State Sen. Mike Delph told Howey Politics Indi- going to do.” ana on Monday that a “conservative lane” exists in what Meyer, 39, told the IBJ she’s running because she will be a crowded Republican U.S. Senate field. “The U.S. thinks the district needs “an effective and efficient sena- Senate race is wide open,” Delph said. “I don’t think being tor,” and she believes she has those skills from her experi- a sitting member of Congress is the best advantage. The ence as an urban planner. Informed and reliable sources public is very dissatisfied with tell Howey Politics Indiana that Zionsville Councilwoman Congress.” Susana Suarez and attorney John Westercamp are other That was an obvious shot potential candidates. Suarez recently left the staff of Gov. at U.S. Reps. and Eric Holcomb. , who are expected to get into the race this summer. Congress Delph is also considering a third term in the state Senate. Delph said he has met with the Senate Conserva- 2nd CD: Dems search for candidate tive Fund, and the Republican Senatorial The Democratic party’s 2016 nominee, Lynn Cole- Campaign Committee. He notes that he stepped aside in man, has expressed interest in a rematch with U.S. Rep. the 2012 and 2016 races after he was lobbied not to “split . But columnist Jack the conservative vote” with and Marlin Colwell tells HPI that Democrats will be polling the 2nd CD Stutzman by figures like and David McIn- sometime after the Senate health reform vote. “Results tosh. But this time, he won’t let that sentiment sway his could have an effect on possible contenders,” Colwell ex- decision. “I’m in a strong position to choose my path this plained. “I’m told Lynn would like to go again but wouldn’t time,” he said. He said that ballot tests against U.S. Sen. do so if the party leaders find somebody with a better show that “no one on the Republican side is chance. They are looking.” beating Joe Donnelly. I think there’s a definite opening.” He said if he gets in, he will run a grassroots cam- 3rd CD: Tritch enters Dem primary paign. He ran in 2002 for secretary of state, losing at the Courtney Tritch, former vice president of market- convention to Rokita. But he’s kept contact with Tea Party ing for the economic development group Northeast Indi- and social conservative groups statewide. He also believes ana Regional Partnership, said in a video that the country is on a “cataclysmic course with the future she will run for the seat occupied by Republican freshman prosperity of America at stake” fearing that the “gen- Rep. of Columbia City (Francisco, Fort Wayne erational credit card” Journal Gazette). Tritch said in will be saddled on his the minute-long video that she kids and grandkids. will provide information about Delph also her candidacy at an “official believes he is the campaign launch event” July only Republican who 6. The Journal Gazette re- can defend SD29, ported June 13 that backers of since the district is a 3rd District Democratic can- trending Democratic didate were planning a July 6 and the majority is in announcement at Foster Park. Indianapolis. He said At the time, organizers would he possesses a “copy neither confirm nor deny of the campaign speculation that Tritch was plan” against him that candidate. In her video from the “Bill Oes- Tritch said, “I’m so excited terle and Freedom to announce today that that Indiana crowd be- State Sen. Mike Delph is weighing a U.S. Senate bid and Courtney Tritch rumor is indeed true.” Tritch, (right) and has entered the Democratic 3rd CD race. Page 10 who operates a marketing firm called Courtney Tritch National Golf Course Owners Association and the Indiana Consulting, would become the third announced Democratic Home Builders Association. “I am not a career politician,” candidate for Banks’ seat, joining David Roach and Tommy said Rogers. “I have held many titles in my life – wife, Schrader, both of Fort Wayne. Roach and Schrader are mother, teacher and business owner – but politician is not both multi-cycle fringe candidates. one of them. I am running now because I care deeply about our community and believe that a fresh perspective 4th CD: Morales eyes candidacy will help to tackle our most difficult issues.” Matt Zapfe of Diego Morales is pondering a run for the 4th CD the Senate Majority Caucus campaign told HPI that Zakas seat in the seat that U.S. Rep. Todd Rokita is expected to “always weighs the pros and cons” and plans to make give up for the Senate seat. District GOP sources tell HPI a decision “in the next couple of weeks.” Zakas, 67, has that State Rep. Heath VanNatter, Workforce Development represented the district since 1983. Director Steve Braun and State Sen. are others who could enter the race. Once Rokita announces SD45: Smith hasn’t made decision for the Senate, that field could grow into double digits. Zapfe told HPI that State Sen. Jim Smith is still deciding whether he will seek a third term. Zapfe said that 8th CD: 5 Democrats explore runs Smith’s online fishing tackle business has been successful Evansville Courier & Press columnist Jon Webb and is taking more of his time. No other Republican has reports that at least five Democrats are pondering a chal- announced for SD45. lenge to Rep. Bucshon. The only declared candidate is 27-year-old Glen Miller, who is a Bernie Sanders supporter. Presidential Webb said that Vanderburgh County Democratic Chairman Scott Danks wouldn’t name the five potential candidates. Mayor Buttigieg forms Hitting Home PAC “In general, the more options voters have, the better the South Bend Mayor Peter Buttigieg, fresh off an result will be for them in the end,” Danks said. “In politics, appearance on NBC’s “Late Night with Seth Meyers,” competition is necessary. It keeps people more honest has formed a leadership PAC. It comes as a scheduled and in tune with constituents. I welcome other primary appearance in Iowa this September has fueled specula- contenders. At this point we’re kind in a holding pattern, tion he might enter the 2020 presidential race. Buttigieg but it won’t last long because a decision has to be made explained, “As the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, I see on soon. I can assure you that we’ll have a very, very strong a daily basis the impact of politics and policy on my family, candidate in the 8th, and in my opinion they’ll take the 8th neighbors, friends, and residents. Earlier this year, I ran District.” for chair of the Democratic National Committee because of a sense, in communities like mine, that national politi- General Assembly cians were talking too little about us and too much about each other, and themselves. The upcoming elections in SD11: Challenger for Sen. Zakas 2017 and 2018 offer an opportunity for the Democratic State Sen. Joe Zakas is weighing the pros and Party to change that, rebuild, and once again be rightfully cons of running for another term. It comes as Linda Rog- known as the party that cares about people and works to ers announced she will challenge Zakas in the primary. make their lives better. Yet success, in the short and long Rogers (pictured) told term, is far from guaranteed.” the Elkhart Truth that she Buttigieg added, “As we approach the second half will be a “fresh voice and of 2017 and prepare for 2018, I remain concerned that face, that will bring fresh The Show in Washington is disconnected from our every- perspectives. This is the day lives. It is so absorbing that it crowds out attention people’s seat. It does not to what happens in our homes, families and communities belong to any one man or as a result of policy decisions. This is a recipe for political woman but to all of us. frustration and policy failure. That’s why I’ve decided to As a political outsider with establish Hitting Home, a political action committee that decades of experience in is dedicated to elevating the voices, concerns, and aspira- the private sector, I will tions of Americans who no longer feel like they have a seat bring a unique perspective at the table in our political discourse. Hitting Home will to the legislative process mobilize resources to elect Democrats, at every level and and a true representation in communities both red and blue, who will put the lived of the values of the district.” Rogers, a former educator experiences of Americans front and center. We will support and restaurateur, now owns and operates Juday Creek Golf candidates who focus on showing voters what we are for course and is president of Nugent Builders, a homebuilding – not just what we are against – and understand how to company. She was the first female president of both the do so in terms of our everyday lives.” v Page 11

the Democratic policy sin of 2009-2010 by developing a Young, Donnelly talk partisan health reform bill in secret, the details of the new legislation that could be voted on next week emerged, coming a week after President Trump called the House- bipartisan reform passed American Health Care Act “mean.” When that By BRIAN A. HOWEY plan passed on May 4, he invited House Republicans over NASHVILLE, Ind. – Freshman Republican U.S. Sen. and celebrated with a Rose Garden beer party. Trump is Todd Young articulated this month what should be a no- clueless on the emerging details. He simply wants to sign brainer: The looming health care reform legislation should something/anything and declare a big deal victory. be a bipartisan effort. Young wrote to the 48 members of For those of you who do delve into policy, the the Senate Democratic caucus, “If we are going to achieve Senate plan would, according to Axios and NBC’s First lasting results, we need to reach bipartisan conclusions. I Read: Keep subsidies like Obamacare, but only up to firmly believe the best solution possible can be reached by 350% of the federal poverty level starting in 2020, not working together. As this debate advances, give me a call; the ’s 400%. It will have a four-year I would be happy to grab a cup of coffee and hear your reinsurance program to help state insurance markets. The thoughts and ideas.” ACA’s cost-sharing reduction subsidies – one of the main He found partial agreement with Democratic things insurers say they need – would be funded through Sen. Joe Donnelly, who said on the Senate floor Monday, 2019. States would get to waive some of the ACA’s insur- “Indiana and our country would be better off if we could ance regulations. Medicaid expansion will be phased out work together to produce bipartisan legislation rather than more slowly than in the House bill, ending the expansion a partisan bill drafted in secret and in 2024. voted on without input or a single NBC’s First Read notes: Senate hearing.” “Senate Majority Leader Mitch Where Donnelly parts with McConnell is calling this a Young is his belief that President ‘discussion draft,’ but the vote Trump and congressional Republicans is still supposed to happen purposely blew up Obamacare in- next week. Does the bill al- stead of working over the past seven ready include, for example, a years to evolve the law. In his view, dedicated fund to combat the this has accelerated under President opioid crisis? Are all its fund- Trump. On Wednesday, we learned ing levels filled in – and final? that Indianapolis-based Anthem On an already compressed and MDWise are pulling out of the timeline, how much negotiat- Indiana Obamacare exchange. Anthem covered 46,000 ing will happen at the 11th hour?” Hoosiers in all 92 counties; MDWise covers 30,000 and it And Axios observes something that should make plans to emphasize service to the 370,000 Hoosiers in the Sen. Young happy: Democrats (and Republicans) will have Healthy Indiana Plan 2.0. Under the House plan passed on a “virtually unlimited opportunity to amend it during the May 4, a rapid Medicaid defunding could destabilize the budget process on the floor” next week, per Chairman state’s hospital system and the General Assembly could be Lamar Alexander. faced with a HIP 2.0 funding gap in the hundreds of mil- So there will be high political drama as we lions of dollars. head into the Fourth of July. Conservatives like Kentucky Donnelly used quotes from President Trump last U.S. Sen. Rand Paul see the emerging Senate plan as winter that he wanted to “blow up” Obamacare, then “Obamacare Lite.” Moderates like Ohio Sen. Rob Portman blame Democrats. “I don’t want people to get hurt,” Trump and ’s Shelley Moore Capito are wary of the the Wall Street Journal. “What I think should happen, and Medicaid defunding. Both states, to a more severe degree will happen, is the Democrats will start calling me and than Indiana, are in the grips of the opioid/heroin/fentanyl negotiating.” As Slate’s Jordan Weissmann observed, “Wel- pandemic, with Ohio expecting 10,000 over dose deaths come to the Tony Soprano school of health policymaking.” this year. Donnelly explained, “If your house needs The House-passed plan could have ended health repairs, you don’t set the house on fire. You work to fix coverage for up to 28 million people, according to the the issues. If we’re serious about improving the health Congressional Budget Office. Its score of the Senate plan care system in this country, we can do it, and we can do put that number at 22 million. So the stakes are high. If it working together. But the first step is to do no harm, Republicans don’t get this right, they will own it. Since to stop doing damage to the current system and to the 2010, Obamacare has eviscerated Democratic majorities people who rely on it. Health care is not a game. This is in Congress and some 30 state legislatures. It behooves about people’s health, economic security and real lives.” everyone on Capitol Hill to work together and compromise. On Thursday, after Senate Republicans repeated I’m not holding my breath. v Page 12

intent that it would become law as is, but as a way to get That ‘mean’ bill will something moving, to show they voted to repeal Obam- acare and to give the president the boost he demanded. They hoped the Republican-controlled Senate would even- impact Senate race tually provide a different version, not as mean, not the By JACK COLWELL malpractice version of the House. SOUTH BEND – The “mean” health care bill Trump came to understand this. He was told that passed by House Republicans could be a key issue in the the House bill really wasn’t something to celebrate. He was nationally important U.S. Senate race in Indiana next year. told that the Senate needs to do something to improve it. It will be if Sen. Joe Donnelly has anything to say But he didn’t need to label the work of House Republicans about it. And Donnelly, the Democratic incumbent facing as “mean.” If indeed the Republican Senate nominee is, a very tough race, already is saying a lot about it, calling as expected, Rokita or Messer, voters are going the plan not just mean, but to be reminded in myriad political ads and speeches that disastrous. they voted for a House health care plan so bad that even The House Republican President Trump called it “mean.” plan could be a key issue in Already, the sends Indiana because Donnelly’s out statements with titles such as: “President Trump: Republican opponent is likely Congressmen Messer, Rokita supported ‘mean’ health care to be a Hoosier congress- bill.” It also refers to “Congressmen Messer’s and Rokita’s man, either Todd Rokita, 4th bill.” Like saying: “You vote for it, you own it.” District, or Luke Messer, 6th Donnelly has denounced the House bill as repeal- District. Both are angling for ing the most popular provisions of the Affordable Care the GOP senatorial nomina- Act, Obamacare. Polls show that Obamacare has become tion. And both voted for and more popular, way more popular than that House health praised passage of the House care bill. Donnelly contends that the Trump administration health care bill. is sabotaging Obamacare, trying to destroy it “by creating The description of the bill as “mean” comes now instability and chaos” that drives out insurance providers from President Donald Trump. But didn’t Trump pressure and discourages enrollment in successful plans such as House Republicans, many skeptical about what was in the Indiana’s HIP 2.0. bill, to pass it anyway? Yes. Didn’t the president invite the Fix it, Donnelly says: “If your house needs repairs, bill supporters to a victory party in the Rose Garden to you don’t set the house on fire. You work to fix the issues.” celebrate? Yes. And didn’t he hail it then as a “great plan” If Republicans, controlling House, Senate and well-crafted? Yes. The president did no favors for Rokita and Messer and other Republicans who voted for the bill he wanted in order to claim a political victory and celebrate. In conceding now that the “great plan” really is “mean,” Trump acknowledges what critics said about it from the start. Critics, including doctors, hospitals, the AARP, health insurance providers and consumer groups, said it was mean in curtailing health care, especially for underprivileged children, the elderly and those unfortunately with preexisting conditions, and knocking 23 million Americans off health White House, do provide a popular Trumpcare to fix the insurance. health care system, votes for that initial, “mean” House bill Rokita and Messer are intelligent, politically won’t be so negative for Messer or Rokita. If the effort fails savvy. They knew the thing pushed through the House as health care burns down, then it could be a decisive plus without hearings or cost analysis was bad. They also knew for Donnelly. v it had no chance in the Senate. Indeed, if the House ver- sion was enacted as the new Trumpcare to replace Obam- Colwell has covered Indiana politics over five de- acare, it would be so unpopular that Republicans could cades for the South Bend Tribune. lose the House in 2018. Most House Republicans voted for the bill, not with Page 13

lishment candidate, narrowly won a special election in No- Few special CD vember 2009 after President Obama appointed Republican U.S. Rep. John McHugh as secretary of the Army. The 23rd District has historically been one of the most Republican elections are special districts in the country. By CHRIS SAUTTER There are no moral victories in politics because WASHINGTON – When Democrat Jill Long won an winning is the bottom line. That said, it is without question upset special election victory for ’s old House that Democrats have outperformed their 2016 numbers in seat in the heavily Republican Fort Wayne area congres- all four of the special elections this year. sional district back in 1989, Lee Atwater, who was the In Georgia 6, for example, where Democrats newly installed chairman of the believed they had the best chance of competing of the Republican National Committee, four districts, the Republican performance is rated as plus told he was 8% by the highly respected Cook Partisan Index. Further, ashamed his party lost. “She ran although Donald Trump carried the district by less than the kind of campaign I would have 2%, HHS Secretary Tom Price, who vacated the seat to been proud of,” Atwater, the king take the cabinet post, won the conservative district easily of hardball politics, lamented. in 2016 and 2014 (with 62% and 66% of the vote respec- Atwater, who was fresh tively). Democrats forced Republicans to spend heavily from masterminding George H.W. with big dollars to hold districts that they should have eas- Bush’s presidential victory in ily won, while Democratic candidates raised most of their 1988, could afford to shoulder the millions from small donations. blame. Much has changed in the Nevertheless, this year’s special elections have world of congressional campaigns exposed weaknesses that could undercut efforts to take or in the almost 30 years since that Indiana race. But there protect the House majority in the 2018-midterm elections. is still a lot of hand-wringing and finger-pointing after an The Republicans may have to overcome historically low election loss in a high profile race, as in the June 20 Geor- presidential approval numbers. Historically, a president’s gia 6 special election. favorability ratings are the best indicator of whether the in- Party leaders should be apologetic when they lose cumbent party sustains big midterm election losses. Trump a special election in a district drawn for their own candi- was clearly a drag on each of the Republican candidates dates. Partisan make-up of a congressional district weighs in all four of this year’s special elections. But in those heavily on the outcome. Republicans usually win special districts, it was not enough to overcome the Republican elections in Republican districts and Democrats usually partisan advantage. Democrats would likely have won any win in Democratic districts. Upsets tend only to happen swing district specials had there been any. when there are special circumstances present, such as a Republican candidates may also have to defend an scandal-ridden retiring incumbent or a favored candidate extremely unpopular health care law. It is not yet appar- who takes the outcome for granted. Of course, special ent whether the Senate health care bill will pass or that elections in swing districts will be genuinely competitive, the House and Senate can reach agreement, if it does. but there are fewer of them because a president will try But it is obvious that attempts by Republican leaders to to avoid recruiting members for administration jobs from push a bill that imposes deep cuts in Medicaid are raising such districts due to the possibility of losing a seat. alarms in both red and blue states. GOP Senate leaders In Barack Obama’s firstyear as president, face growing opposition even within their own caucus from Democrats ran the table on special elections, just as Re- both conservatives and moderates. publicans have this year. The difference is Democrats won Even after losing four special elections, Demo- two of the five races then in more difficult terrain than any crats would still seem to have the wind at their back. of the races Republicans have won this year. That is not to say that winning control of the House of In April 2009, for example, Democrat Scott Mur- Representatives will be easy as some Democrats seem to phy narrowly won a special election in New York’s 20th have thought. Democrats held onto the hope that Donald Congressional District to replace Kirsten Gillibrand, who Trump’s low favorability ratings would carry the day with was appointed to the U.S. Senate to succeed the new sec- one or more of these special elections. retary of state, Hillary Clinton. Traditionally conservative, There are 23 Republican held seats that Hillary the district had been in Republican hands in all but four Clinton carried. Democrats need 24 seats to win majority years in beginning 1913 before Gillibrand, a Democrat, and they won’t win all 23 of the districts Clinton won, since won the seat in 2006. Murphy, who ended up losing in some of those Republican incumbents are personally too 2010, won the special in large part due to the popularity popular. However, there are likely enough swing districts in of both Gillibrand and the new president, Barack Obama. states like California, Florida, Pennsylvania and others, that Similarly, in New York 23 Democrat Bill Owens, can get them to 24 when added to whatever number of aided by a Tea Party challenge to the Republican estab- blue districts they win. v Page 14

What has happened that has caused this disrup- The crisis of tion in the supply and demand curve? Have the immuta- ble laws of economics been shattered? I don’t believe that the laws of economics have been permanently altered. full employment They have been severely impacted by a variety of factors. By CRAIG DUNN Business, government and society all have played contrib- KOKOMO – The economy in Indiana is very close utory roles in this current economic crisis. to reaching crisis levels. No, this isn’t the kind of crisis that It is no secret that since the dawn of the comes from a decline in business revenues and the result- industrial revolution that the role of labor has changed. ing unemployment. This is a crisis born of success. Automation and modern manufacturing techniques have The evidence of this impending crisis is every- steadily reduced the demand for labor. As the cost of labor, where. You just can’t go anywhere, from the Ohio River as measured in wages and benefits, rises, it has become to the St. Joseph River, and more cost efficient for industry to rely on greater auto- not see signs of big problems mation. But it doesn’t stop with automation. The rise of ahead for the Hoosier State. globalization and the outsourcing of employment to lower- These are not figurative signs wage countries has also served to reduce the demand for of crisis. They are literal signs labor, particularly unskilled labor. In recent years, skilled that our 12 years of consistent labor jobs, from engineers to medical technology, have economic success are in jeop- been sent overseas as well. This has served to act as a ardy. These are the ubiquitous throttling factor in the rise of wages. “Help Wanted” signs in just Forty years ago, in an environment like the one about every storefront, res- we are in today, a labor unions would sense their strong taurant, healthcare and manu- bargaining position, call a strike for higher wages and be facturing business in our great reasonably assured that their demands would be met. To- state. day, organized labor has lost much of its bargaining power. Collectively, government There are people all over the world who are willing to do and the private sector have experience dealing with declin- the same work for far less income and benefits. Because ing revenues and rising unemployment. We’ve had a lot of this, outsourcing has put a virtually impregnable lid on of practice over the past hundred years dealing with this significant wage growth. The fewer skills you possess, the cyclical malady. However, we’ve rarely seen a time, with fewer the bargaining chips in your pocket. the exception of times of war, when the success of some Government has also played a significant role in businesses and industry is in doubt due to a shortage of the disruption of the labor supply-and-demand curve. It employees. comes as no surprise to most readers of a political digest Many in the public sector and in government that the well-intentioned heavy hand of government has would tell you that this is a great problem to have and, to inserted the law of unintended consequences as the trump a point, it is. However, there are forces at work that make card over the laws of economics. Governmental programs our current employment crisis nearly unsustainable. Eco- and laws created during times of economic challenges nomics 100 textbooks would tell you that as the demand never seem to be reduced or eliminated when times get for labor rises, incomes rise as well. The better-paying better. Many of these programs have morphed from a businesses will attract employees from lower-paying safety net to a great disincentive to work. businesses and that will lead to a trickle-down effect on Liberal unemployment subsidies and timelines, personal incomes from the most skilled to the least skilled. government-provided healthcare, government-provided The number of people on government as- food stamps, and subsidized government housing and sistance, Medicaid, food stamps, etc., will decrease as other government giveaway programs all contribute to a workers leave a government-funded lifestyle for the private reluctance of many people to enter the workforce. Ac- sector. Newly minted college and trade school graduates cording to the Cato Institute, in a 2013 study, the maxi- will find employment and everyone from unskilled high mum governmental benefits derived by someone willing to school dropouts to ex-convicts can find a job. Crime rates sit on the sidelines and collect the fruits of someone else’s should decline, optimism about the future should rise and labor equates to about $26,891 in Indiana. This would cor- more babies should be born. respond to an hourly rate of $12.92 per hour. People who are unemployed in surrounding states This $12.92 per hour equivalency is an employ- should move to Indiana, where there is greater economic er’s competition. It begs the question, “Why should I take opportunity. That’s how it is supposed to work and it has a job putting round pegs in round holes, flipping burgers worked that way to a point, but you get a sense when you or emptying bedpans for $10, $11 or $12 per hour?” A speak with employers at all levels that the supply-and- potential worker might also ask, “Is the extra $2.08 per demand curve for labor may not be as efficient as antici- hour enough to get me out of bed, dressed and miss Jerry pated. Springer for a $15-per-hour job?” Page 15

From an employer’s perspective, just hiring a openings. Call me a dunderheaded nincompoop for think- warm body costs larger businesses a minimum of $1.73 to ing like this, but to me it is almost criminal for a college meet the employer mandate of Obamacare. If you throw sophomore to declare a major in archaeology, philosophy in workman’s compensation, unemployment insurance and or women’s studies without the knowledge as to job op- the employer’s share of Social Security, you quickly real- portunities available upon graduation. How many young ize why businesses exhaust every possibility to disrupt the college graduates working at Applebee’s and living in their economic laws of labor supply and demand. parents’ basement might have made another choice of In addition, laws governing the employment of college majors had they known that ancient Sanskrit lan- those who have had brushes with the law or who have guage degrees don’t offer much of an employment future? minor drug- or alcohol-related offenses on their records The crisis in Indiana is that we currently have further constrict the pool of available workers. thousands of jobs that are going unfilled. Many are mis- Finally, society, in all its many forms, plays a large sion critical to our state’s future success. There are “Help role in our current employment crisis. Each influence Wanted” signs in front of prisons, in front of nursing exerted by society may just seem like a brick, but after a homes, in front of agencies who work with the mentally while you end up with a wall. Remember, the Great Wall and physically challenged. Now, when you go through a of China started with the laying of a single stone! Or, as a driveup window at McDonalds you are asked, “Would you Chinese philosopher stated, “The journey of a thousand like an order of fries with that hamburger and also, would miles begins with a single step.” you like a job?” First, and I guess this is what makes me a This employment crisis is bad now and apt to get heartless conservative, is the virtual lack of stigma at- worse in the future as our current workforce ages and tached to living “off the system.” In some quarters, it is birth rates decline. The time is fast approaching, if not almost a red badge of courage. You can talk about the already here, when we will happily receive immigrants, speed of modern communications but if you really want legal or not, to help fill our workforce. We get to choose to see fast, just watch how news spreads about a new whether our long-term solutions will be well thought out in government benefits program. advance or forced upon us by the urgency of the moment. When I was a child, there was a very real social It’s time that we recognize the crisis before some serious barrier to someone living on government benefits. Even in damage is done to our economy. v elementary school, you would hear kids talk about Billy’s family living off the government and sense disapproval. Dunn is the former Howard County Republican Not anymore! I spoke a couple of years ago to an alterna- chairman tive school, and asked how many of their families were on government programs. I then asked how many of their grandparents were on gov- ernment programs. Lastly, I asked how many of them expected to be on govern- ment programs. Seventy percent of their families were on government assistance. Fifty percent of their grand- parents received govern- ment support. The shocking number was that 18 out of 20 students expected to receive government support as adults. I just had to ask, “How many of you want to receive government sup- port as an adult?” Only 50 percent of the students even aspired to be self-sufficient! Another societal impact on our employment picture is a shortage of certain occupational degrees or training for available job Page 16

That negative number dropped out of the AVGQ What’s normal for calculation for 2017, and the allowable growth rate jumped from 2.6% to 3.8%. We’ll see a number near 4% for 2018 too. Indiana property tax? With these two indicators back to normal, 2017 By LARRY DeBOER may give a clue about what normal looks like for Indiana WEST LAFAYETTE – Think of the changes in the property taxes. Statewide gross assessed value increased Indiana property tax system between 1998 and 2010. The by 2.2% in 2017. After deductions, taxable assessed value threw out the assessment system increased by 2%. The total property tax levy before credits in December 1998. We started using market values for the increased by 2.5%. reassessment in 2003. In 2002, The property tax rate is the levy divided by taxable we changed the formula for calcu- assessed value. Since the levy increased half a percent lating the maximum property tax more than assessed value, the average tax rate increased levy, and created a huge deduc- from $2.44 to $2.46 per $100 assessed value. tion for homesteads. In 2004, we Tax cap credits keep tax bills under the consti- amended the Indiana Constitution tutional caps. They are taxes that local governments levy to allow those big homestead de- but taxpayers don’t pay. When tax rates increase, more ductions. In 2008, we increased taxpayers become eligible for more tax cap credits. Credits them even more. rose from 10.5% of the levy in 2016 to 10.8% of the levy We phased out the prop- in 2017. erty tax on inventories from 2003 After the tax cap and local income tax credits, to 2007. We began annual adjust- net tax bills increased by 2%, half a point less than the ments of property assessments in levy before credits. The implied net tax rate, calculated 2007, which we call trending. We eliminated the property by dividing tax bills by net assessed value, stayed nearly taxes for school general funds in 2009. We put property constant at $2.07 per $100 assessed value. tax caps in the Constitution in November 2010. That’s a So here’s a guess about normal, based on just one partial list. year. Gross and net assessed value grow between 2% and In the midst of all this policy chaos, we had the 3%. The levy increases a little more than that, causing worst recession since the Great Depression, so bad that the average tax rate to rise slightly. That increases tax cap it reduced the value of property. Our new assessment credits, which hold the tax bill increase closer to the rise system caught that decline in property values, so assessed in assessed value. The implied net tax rate is unchanged. value actually decreased for a couple of years. Results for local governments will vary a lot around the Practically every year for 12 years, policy changes statewide averages. or economic disruptions rocked Indiana’s property tax Maybe that’s normal. Maybe it’s not. If our eco- system. By the end of it all, we had no idea what “normal” nomic expansion keeps going for a while, we can find out. looked like. In a normal year, how much would the as- v sessed value of property grow? How much would the tax levy increase? How would tax rates and tax cap credits DeBoer is a professor of agricultural economics at change? There was no way to know. Purdue University. We’ve had fewer policy changes since 2010. Now, two economic measures that affect our tax system are back to normal. In the 20 years between the reces- sion of 1981-82 and the Great Recession, Indiana home prices increased about 4% per year, on average. They fell by a point a year during the recession, but in the past two years they’re back to 4% increases. Trending captures the home price changes in assessments, and homesteads are a third of taxable assessed value. The maximum levy restricts the amount that Indiana local governments can raise with the property tax. The assessed value growth quotient (AVGQ) allows the maximum to increase each year by the six-year average percent change of Indiana non-farm personal income. From 2011 to 2016, the AVGQ included the income change for 2009, which was negative 3%. That was the Great Recession at its worst. It’s the only negative number in the income series in the past 60 years. Page 17

other major country that has a debt ceiling requirement. Why we need to scrap It has become a political football. Rounding up the votes takes a huge amount of precious legislative time and en- ergy. Most people in Washington understand that a default the debt ceiling by the United States would be calamitous for our own By LEE HAMILTON economy and for the world’s, which means that once we BLOOMINGTON – Using the debt ceiling as a put the debt ceiling requirement in place, this bill simply means of reining in excessive spending has not worked. must pass. This, in turn, gives members of Congress great Our political efforts should go toward finding long-term leverage to try to get something else they want. solutions that restrain spending and boost tax revenue. Right now, congressional leaders are Back when I was in Congress, I got a call from a stumped. Members of the Republican majority don’t want constituent one day. I’d recently voted to raise the nation’s to vote for raising the ceiling, but the leadership knows debt ceiling, and the man was more than irate. “Don’t you that they control the government and can’t simply let it understand that we’ve got a serious spending and debt default on its payments. So, much to their chagrin, they’ll problem in this country?” he asked. “Why did you cast this mostly likely have to negotiate with the Democrats and idiotic vote?” with Republicans who can be won over, handing members He was right about the the chance to exact policy concessions that should instead problem. But he was wrong be considered on their own merits. Even the run-up to an about the vote. With Congress eventual vote is likely to be chaotic, risking a dip into a fast approaching another debt- recession by damaging confidence in our economy. ceiling vote and yet one more This yearly battle isn’t worth it. The issue isn’t the “fiscal cliff” drama taking shape, debt ceiling, it’s the debt itself and deficit spending. Our I’d like to explain why that is. political efforts should go toward finding long-term solu- If you ask members of tions that restrain spending and boost tax revenue. With Congress which regular vote all the built-in spending we have – Social Security, Medi- they most dread, this one would care, defense spending and the like – the deficit problem probably top the list. It’s hard to is only going to get worse if we don’t address it now. explain to constituents why rais- It’s worrisome that there appears to be no plan to ing the debt ceiling is necessary, as indeed I had trouble address the debt ceiling in Congress, despite pleas from explaining to my own constituent. It’s an unpopular vote the president’s economic advisers to do so by the end of to cast, and many members simply will not do it. Yet they July. It’s even more worrisome that congressional lead- recognize that if a majority of their colleagues sided with ers don’t appear ready to address the core need: realistic, them and voted against raising the ceiling, we’d be in deep long-term deficit reduction.v economic trouble. The key thing to understand is that raising the Lee Hamilton is a Senior Advisor for the Indiana debt ceiling is not about increasing spending. It’s about University Center on Representative Government. paying the bills for purchases we’ve already made. Refus- He was a member of the U.S. House of Representa- ing to increase the debt ceiling is like putting your child tives for 34 years. in day care so you can work, getting your transmission repaired so you can get there, and buying work boots and a hard hat so you can stay safe – and then telling your preschool, mechanic and local storekeeper you have no in- tention of paying them. Only, if our nation were to do this, the results would include plummeting investment, rocket- Supreme Court reinstates ing interest rates, and an economic downturn that could be catastrophic. part of Trump travel ban At the moment, our debt is about $20 trillion, WASHINGTON – The Supreme Court on Monday or about $160,000 for every household in the U.S. We permitted a scaled-back version of President Trump’s ban have to find a long-term path to deficit reduction, through on travelers from six mostly Muslim countries to take spending reductions, increased taxes, or a combination of effect, deciding to hear the merits of the case in the fall the two. But using the debt ceiling as a means of reining but allowing Trump for now to claim a victory in the legal in excessive spending has not worked since an aggregate showdown (Washington Post). The court’s unsigned order ceiling was put in place almost 80 years ago. The political delivered a compromise neither side had asked for: It said capital devoted to raising the ceiling every year would be the government may not bar those with a “bona fide” con- far better spent putting us on a sustainable budget path. nection to the United States, such as having family mem- Indeed, I’d argue that the nation would be bet- bers here, or a job or a place in an American university. v ter off scrapping the debt ceiling altogether. I know of no Page 18

ernment transfers. Ten of the remaining 18% is income Government aid maintenance and unemployment compensation combined. These include the Earned Income Tax Credit, the food/nu- trition programs (WIC and SNAP) programs, foster home to individuals care and adoption assistance. The balance of these monies By MORTON MARCUS provides veteran benefits, education and training, plus a INDIANAPOLIS – My friends have differing views small miscellaneous category. about the money governments give to individuals. Some Cutting back or enlarging these programs raises think it is immoral for any government to give money to questions of who benefits and who loses from such poli- people; it weakens individual responsibility and the ef- cies. The national discussion focuses on income (the rich fort to care for oneself. Others believe such transfers are vs the poor), but other factors are worth considering. necessary to keep the underclass from revolting against Many of our transfer dollars go to older Americans from established authority. taxes on younger citizens. Workers in medical and related Still others foresee economic collapse if low in- companies benefit at the expense of other worthwhile come consumers do not spend persons and establishments. enough to sustain a vigorous My friends have strong views on these matters. I’ll business environment. On the bet you do too. v high ground stand those af- firming governments are our Mr. Marcus is an economist, writer, and speaker agents, fulfilling our moral who may be reached at mortonjmarcus@yahoo. responsibility to care for the poor, the infirm, and the disad- vantaged. Every federal, state, and local transfer program has both its supporters, who feel the Holcomb signs warmth of social benefits, and its detractors, who detect the expanded Pre-K bill evil whiff of social decay. The following facts will not change the fixed perceptions of my CNHI Statehouse Bureau friends. INDIANAPOLIS – Gov. Eric Holcomb ceremonially Government transfers to individuals exceeded $2.6 signed a bill Monday that expands pre-kindergarten op- trillion in 2015. Hoosiers had $53 billion or two percent tions after asking 14 preschool students to give a “double of that total. Nationally, transfers from governments ac- thumbs-up” for the legislation. counted for 16.8% of personal income, while in Indiana “These kids are going to get off to a great start the figure was 19.1%. That’s nearly one in every five and we know how critically important that is,” Holcomb dollars of Hoosier income came in the form of government said. assistance. Indiana ranked 21st in the nation in percent of House Enrolled Act 1004 expands pre-K for low- personal income derived from transfers. income families from five to 20 Hoosier counties. Of course, many folks don’t consider Social Security The bill increases funding for the On My Way Pre- retirement payments to be government assistance. They K program by $10 million annually to $22 million. think those funds are from money we paid in and to which In a statement, House Speaker , R- we are entitled. Believe what you will, but Social Security Indianapolis, said, “Expanding high-quality early learning payments amounted to $20.7 billion or 39% of total trans- opportunities for more low-income children and rural com- fers to Hoosiers. munities is key to helping close the achievement gap, and Even larger were the $23 billion (43% of has been a long-term goal of House Republicans.” transfers) providing medical benefits to Hoosiers. These At the signing, Bosma added, “Low-income young were divided as $12.7 billion for Medicare and $10 billion people throughout Indiana will have an opportunity for this for Medicaid. These dollars do not go into the pockets and we won’t rest until every low-income family has that of Hershel & Harriet Hoosier. They go to medical service same opportunity.” and product providers on behalf of Hershel and Harriet. The 14 students attend the early learning center Cutbacks in these health maintenance programs will hurt at the Indianapolis government building. not only Hershel and Harriet, but also the people (doctors, The new counties added to the On My Way Pre-K nurses, attendants, clerks, factory workers, sales persons program are Bartholomew, DeKalb, Delaware, Elkhart, and others) who attempt to keep them healthy. Floyd, Grant, Harrison, Howard, Kosciusko, Madison, Mar- These two categories (retirement/disability and shall, Monroe, St. Joseph, Tippecanoe and Vigo. v medical benefits) account for more than 82% of all gov- Page 19

Bob Zaltsberg, Bloomington Herald-Times: A become a C1 by enrollment and completions.” v lot of the national news last week focused on how best to deliver health care to the most people in the United States. Michael Mukasey, Wall Street Journal: What That includes Hoosiers, of course, and Monroe Countians. exactly is Special Counsel Robert Mueller investigating? Here are some thoughts. Republican Congressman Charlie The basis in law—regulation, actually—for Mr. Mueller’s ap- Dent from Pennsylvania was interviewed on NPR’s “Morn- pointment is a finding by the deputy attorney general that ing Edition” on WFIU Friday morning about the Senate “criminal investigation of a person or matter is warranted.” version of the bill that would repeal and replace the Af- According to some reports, the possible crime is obstruc- fordable Care Act, aka Obamacare. He made more sense tion of justice. The relevant criminal statute provides that than usually comes out of Washington these days. “whoever corruptly . . . influences, obstructs or impedes He said he wanted to hear an analysis from or endeavors [to do so], the due and proper the Congressional Budget Office, which administration of the law under which any pend- said the House version of a replacement for ing proceeding is being had,” is guilty of a crime. Obamacare, which he did not support, would The key word is “corruptly.” President Trump’s mean 23 million people would likely lose critics describe two of his actions as constituting insurance coverage. He wanted to hear from possible obstruction. One is an alleged request people in his district: patients, patient advo- to then-FBI Director James Comey that he go cates and health care providers. He’s not an easy on former national security adviser Michael Flynn, all-or-nothing guy. He said “we need to do something” to who was under investigation for his dealings with Russia fix the problems of the Affordable Care Act, but realizes and possible false statements to investigators about them. not all of it is a problem. He said he’s been talking with According to Mr. Comey, Mr. Trump told him, “I hope you Democratic members of the House “who have acknowl- can see your way clear to letting this go, to letting Flynn edged they want to fix some things and we’ve started go,” because “he is a good guy.” An obstruction charge hashing out some ideas.” “We all know parts of this law based on that act would face two hurdles. One is that the will need to be repealed, parts of it replaced, parts of it re- decision whether to charge Mr. Flynn was not Mr. Comey’s. paired, reformed and overhauled and parts of it retained. As FBI director, his job was to supervise the investigation. We have to get our rhetoric right on this,” he said. It was It is up to prosecutors to decide whether charges were a refreshing departure from choosing sides with no middle justified. The president’s confusion over the limits of Mr. acknowledged or sought.v Comey’s authority may be understandable. Mr. Comey’s overstepping of his authority last year, when he announced Jeff Ward, Muncie Star Press: Over the next year, that no charges were warranted against Hillary Clinton, Ivy Tech will be changing its organizational structure to might have misled Mr. Trump about the actual scope of make it more responsive to community needs. Ivy Tech Mr. Comey’s authority. Nonetheless, the president’s confu- students can relax because the changes won’t affect sion could not have conferred authority on Mr. Comey. The course offerings, classes and staff. That’s what Ivy Tech other is the statutory requirement that a president have President Sue Elllspermann said in a visit to Muncie on acted “corruptly.” In Arthur Andersen LLP v. U.S. (2005), Tuesday. Ivy Tech will move from 14 regions to 19 cam- the U.S. Supreme Court accepted the following definition: puses. The changes will give local campuses, such as the that the act be done “knowingly and dishonestly, with the ones in Muncie and Richmond, more autonomy. specific intent to subvert or undermine the integrity” of Each campus will have a chancellor. Ivy Tech will have a proceeding. Taking a prospective defendant’s character those key people in place by Aug. 1. Ellspermann said no into account when deciding whether to charge him—as Mr. campuses or educational sites will close. She stressed the Comey says Mr. Trump asked him to do—is a routine exer- move was not an effort to reduce personnel. “This really cise of prosecutorial discretion. It is hard to imagine that was a clean slate,” Ellspermann said. She’s been president a properly instructed jury could decide that a single such of Ivy Tech for about a year, but heard concerns about the request constituted acting “corruptly”—particularly when, regional concept in place when she arrived, especially with according to Mr. Comey, Mr. Trump also told him to pursue some chancellors driving more than 55,000 miles in nine evidence of criminality against any of the president’s “ ‘sat- months. “It became pretty apparent by fall that we needed ellite’ associates.” The second act said to carry the seed of to move more quickly,” with the reorganization plan, she obstruction is the firing of Mr. Comey as FBI director. The said. A team was formed with representation from each president certainly had the authority; it is his motive that region and from all levels of staffing. About 200 interviews his critics question. The statement to Russian diplomats, were conducted and then the team “literally designed the which might have been intended to put the Russians at future,” Ellspermann said. “We really didn’t let the tradi- ease, collides with the simple fact that an investigation— tional regional lines define things, but looked at the com- conducted by agents in the field—proceeds regardless of munities and the campuses.” “Going forward, a campus whether the director continues in office, and thus hardly can grow” Ellspermann said. “If Muncie really grows, it can suggests the president acted “corruptly.” v Page 20

to understand how it would impact raised over half a billion dollars for Holcomb coy on Hoosiers, including the state, health the party, she’s been more inclusive. Senate health bill care providers, and most importantly, Who would have thought she would the health and financial security of have listened to me and put a Muslim WASHINGTON — Gov. Eric Hoosier families.” Donnelly opposes on the Intelligence Committee. She’s Holcomb on Monday avoided taking the bill, which was released Thurs- visionary. I don’t want to see Pelosi a strong stance on the Senate health day and slightly revised Monday. The leave and we bring in a more refined, care plan under consideration even Indiana Hospital Association came out more polished, and younger good old though it could cost the state billions against the legislation Monday, saying boys club,” Carson added. in funding to help poor, disabled and it threatens the future of Indiana’s elderly Hoosiers (Kelly, successful Medicaid expan- Holcomb, Crouch Fort Wayne Journal sion, and would substantially Gazette). “Ultimately reduce support for Indiana’s set 10-year ag plan there will be some hard overall Medicaid program. INDIANAPOLIS — The state’s decisions that have to Indianapolis-based Anthem, Department of Agriculture plans to be made, both federally however, said in a statement implement a wide-ranging strategy speaking and at the state Monday that while the bill to promote Indiana’s 57,500 farming level,” he said. “I will be prepared to proposes challenges to Medicaid, it operations over the next 10 years, make sure that we care for Hoosiers would markedly improve the stability officials announced Monday (Miley, … We’ll see what hand we’re dealt.” of the individual market and moderate CNHI). The presentation of the plan, At the core of the bill is $772 billion in premium increases. made to about 200 agriculture repre- Medicaid cuts from 2017 to 2026, ac- sentatives at The Ritz Charles event cording to a review posted Monday by Pence will try to center in Carmel, also drew Gov. Eric the nonpartisan Congressional Bud- Holcomb and Lt. Gov get Office. Spending on the program save Senate bill to the podium. “Having a plan is criti- would decline in 2026 by 26 percent WASHINGTON — With the cally important. It’s also important to in comparison with current law. fate of Republicans’ Obamacare repeal the market so that folks know there is State officials declined to release any bill hanging in the balance, Vice Presi- certainty and predictability when they estimates for Indiana losses but the dent Mike Pence is swooping in to see are looking at where to invest,” said price will be high. Federal Medicaid if he can work out a deal to secure the Holcomb. “So this plan is right down assistance to Indiana currently tops 50 votes needed to pass it through that strike zone. It will play a critical $7 billion a year. Holcomb said the the Senate (). Pence will host part in us continuing to grow our ag bill is changing as he spoke and he is a group of conservative GOP senators investments.” withholding judgment even though a including ’s Mike Lee for dinner vote could come this week. He said on Tuesday to discuss their concerns Mayor Henry sees the state wants flexibility and respon- with the legislation. Invitations have sibility to decide how to care for its also been extended to Oklahoma Sen. push on climate citizens. “We’ll treat our citizens like James Lankford and Arkansas Sen. people, not like numbers,” Holcomb Tom Cotton. Sen. Ben Sasse was also FORT WAYNE — Upon his said. invited to the dinner, although it is un- return to Fort Wayne on Monday night clear whether he will attend; a Sasse from the U.S. Conference of Mayors, Donnelly presses aide said the Nebraska Republican is Mayor Tom Henry said he wasn’t “engaging frequently with the vice surprised energy and the environment Holcomb on health president and his team.” prompted much discussion at the INDIANAPOLIS — Sen. Joe annual meeting (Fort Wayne Journal Donnelly, D-Ind., wants GOP Gov. Carson defends Gazette). “Many of us were concerned Eric Holcomb to spell out how the about the United States pulling out of health care bill the Senate is expected Leader Pelosi the Paris pact,” Henry said. The move confused countries that depend on to vote on this week would impact WASHINGTON — Rep. André Indiana – particularly how the cuts the U.S. for guidance and direction, Carson (D-Ind.) defended House he said. “We felt it was the wrong in Medicaid funding would affect Minority Leader (D-Calif.) those who recently gained coverage statement to make to the rest of the on Sunday, saying on CNN that while world,” he said, adding that’s why and those struggling with addiction everything hasn’t been “perfect,” Pe- (Groppe, IndyStar). “Before voting on he and the other mayors “did what losi has been a “phenomenal leader” we did.” Mayors voted on resolutions this bill,” Donnelly wrote in a letter (Beavers, The Hill). “She’s formidable. to Holcomb, “it’s important for me pushing back against President Donald Since she’s been in leadership, she’s Trump on climate change.