Ezra Millstein / Mercy Corps ON THE MOVE Understanding Venezuelan Refugee and Migrant Decision-Making: Implications for Responses to Protracted Displacement FEBRUARY 2020 Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank the following people for their input and support on this project: Jen Daum, Hugh Aprile, Rebecca Wolfe, Jon Kurtz, Ana Sorrentino. We also want to thank John Sandoval and Victor Florez for support with fieldwork in Colombia and superb research assistance from Daena Diaz, Miguel Lugo and Luisa Oyuela. Suggested Citation: Tesfaye, Beza, Blue, Philip and Ranu Nath. (2020). On the Move—Understanding Venezuelan Refugee and Migrant Decision-Making: Implications for Responses to Protracted Displacement. Mercy Corps. MERCY CORPS On the Move A 2 Introduction More people are displaced than ever before.1 An families. In reality, migrants and refugees fleeing their unprecedented 70.8 million people around the world country often experience harrowing journeys and end have been forced from their homes due to violence, up in situations of deprivation and vulnerability, at persecution and natural disasters as of 2018. The times, when better alternatives exist. These suboptimal ongoing political and economic crisis in Venezuela outcomes beg the question of how people on the has sparked the latest and largest, second only to that move make decisions that affect their wellbeing. While of Syria, refugee and migrant movement worldwide. humanitarian programs and broader policy responses A staggering 4.7 million people have thus far left seek to protect and improve the wellbeing of displaced Venezuela. The UN estimates that the number of persons, they often lack critical information about refugees and migrants will climb to 5.3 million at the refugees and migrants’ decision-making processes end of 2019, and by 2020, there may be 8 million including, how they weigh uncertainty and risks, Venezuelans outside of their country, making this the evaluate choices and assess information available to largest crisis in the world.2 Colombia, hosting almost them. As a result, such responses may miss opportunities 1.4 million people (roughly 40% of the displaced to go beyond providing short-term relief to helping Venezuelans in the region) so far, has been the refugees and migrants make the best possible choices primary destination.3 given a set of constraints and possibilities. Forced displacement is becoming increasingly To make this specific, take the decision refugees protracted, demanding new ways of responding to the and migrants must make about where they will go needs of refugees and distress migrants. According to once they are compelled to leave their home. the United Nations High Commission for Refugees, the While the ideal option is to reside in a place duration of displacement now lasts an estimated 26 where their rights are protected and livelihood and years, on average.4 With the situation in Venezuela employment opportunities exist, many refugees continuing to deteriorate, there is no immediate and migrants end up in places that offer them little prospect of many Venezuelans returning home. In more than a temporary shelter, in most cases, and recent years, several global frameworks have sought a marginalized existence, in the worst case. While to promote longer-term solutions for refugees and factors such as financial constraints and social migrants, including the Global Compact on Refugees, networks invariably influence where people go, the Global Compact for Migration, and the Sustainable other less well examined variables also play into the Development Goals. These initiatives have put forth decision, including people’s behavioral profiles (i.e. policy ideas on how to address protracted displacement how they perceive risk and uncertainty). Other key and migration, but achieving their goals requires a decisions that affect wellbeing, similar to one’s choice better understanding of the dilemmas that migrants and of destination, include how refugees and migrants refugees face in their situations of displacement. invest or use available assets, income and resources. Often this choice is between meeting immediate Faced with a unique set of challenges, migrants and needs, including food consumption, and investing in refugees make difficult choices, which they believe productive assets or livelihood opportunities that may will result in the best outcomes for themselves and their generate future income. 1 “Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2018,” UNHCR, Accessed December 30, 2019. https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/statistics/unhcrstats/5d08d7ee7/unhcr-global- trends-2018.html 2 Bahar, Dany and Meagan Dooley, “Venezuela refugee crisis to become the latest and most underfunded in modern history, Brookings, Accessed December 30, 2019. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/12/09/venezuela-refugee-crisis-to-become-the-largest-and-most-underfunded-in-modern-history/ 3 “Colombia: Situational Report - August 2019,” ReliefWeb, Accessed December 30, 2019. https://reliefweb.int/report/colombia/colombia-situational-report-august-2019 4 UNHCR, Contribution to the Fifteenth Annual Meeting on International Migration, New York: United Nations Secretariat, 2017. Accessed December 30, 2019. https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/events/coordination/15/documents/papers/14_UNHCR_nd.pdf MERCY CORPS On the Move A 3 Behavioral economics research has shown that people often make decisions that do not obviously appear to Summary of Key Findings make their lives better. It provides a number of tools for understanding why and when this may happen. Venezuelan migrants and refugees in Colombia For example, “prospect theory” identifies ways in tend to be risk-averse and avoid uncertainty. which people make systematic errors when dealing This intolerance to risk and uncertainty may come at with complex problems that involve uncertainty. The a cost of opportunities that present greater benefits. “scarcity” literature highlights that, under stressful circumstances, decision-making can be further impaired Loss aversion contributes to these attitudes because people lack the mental bandwidth to make towards risk and uncertainty. Since many refugees careful and optimal choices. Information (or lack of and migrants coming from Venezuela have it) has long been considered by economists to be a experienced significant losses, once they arrived key component to the quality of decision-making. in Colombia, they prefer not to move onward to Behavioral economics has also shown that the timing other destinations in Colombia or elsewhere, to is important, too: i.e., getting relevant information just avert more losses. before making a decision is more helpful than receiving it long before. When considering how refugees and Information about destinations, opportunities migrants make decisions, the application of these and means of traveling, which Venezuelan theories, in combination with data from assessments of refugees and migrants access primarily through actual choices and how these affect people’s wellbeing, family and friends, is not very reliable. More can provide valuable insights for designing programs accurate and up-to-date information may help and policies that seek to optimize outcomes. reduce the uncertainty surrounding key decisions refugees and migrants must make. Drawing on behavioral economics theories and primary quantitative and qualitative data on Stress and scarcity seem to have a greater decision-making among Venezuelans who have fled impact on the first order migration decision to leave to Colombia, this study seeks to answer questions Venezuela than on decisions for onward travel about how refugees and migrants make decisions once in Colombia. Hence, Venezuelans may be that affect their wellbeing, and how programs and more prone to make impulsive and risky decisions policies can help improve them. We apply commonly while in Venezuela, including undertaking used behavioral measures in a novel context: among dangerous journeys to reach Colombia. Venezuelan refugees and migrants in Colombia. This data enables us to better understand how Venezuelans fleeing their country perceive risks, uncertainty and time preferences. We couple this with in-depth semi- structured interviews that provide a deeper and more nuanced insight into the situations that Venezuelan refugees and migrants find themselves in, which influence their preferences and choices. MERCY CORPS On the Move A 4 Context Venezuela today is facing an economic and political destination countries. Although UNHCR has urged crisis, which has left its people short of money, food host countries to provide protections for Venezuelans and medicine. Since Nicolás Maduro became under the Cartagena Declaration, asylum policies, president in 2013, the country’s GDP per capita has legal residency and other provisions are still at the fallen by about half. Blackouts have left people unable discretion of the host countries.7 For example, Mexico to access water or use their credit cards, a key strategy and Brazil have recognized Venezuelan as refugees for guarding against hyperinflation. While statistics are and have tried to facilitate employment opportunities hard to come by, it is believed that nearly 90 percent for them. Other countries have taken more restrictive of the country’s population lives below the poverty approaches, including Caribbean countries (e.g., line, and more than half of families are unable to meet Curaçao, Trinidad and Tobago) that have re- basic food needs.5 Basic