COVER STORY POLITICS By Dhiraj Nayyar of a majority in the Lok Sabha. It can make up the numbers with the outside support of SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party n March 19, soon after DMK withdrew sup- (BSP), which have 22 and 21 MPs respectively. However, the port to the United Progressive Alliance mercurial Mulayam has wasted no time in serving notice to (UPA) Government, Nationalist Congress the Congress. For now, the SP chief says he is not withdraw- Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar sent a ing support but insists elections will be held early, probably brief message via a set of emissaries to in November 2013. His fickleness has forced the Congress, his friends in the Opposition: “I want to which has 203 seats of its own, to seek insurance. The ally become prime minister for at least six bazaar is open for business. THE GREAT Omonths.” The message was conveyed to Nitin Gadkari The desperate search for allies is not restricted to the BARGAIN SEASON BEGINS and Narendra Modi in BJP, to Biju Janata Dal (BJD) chief remaining term of the current Lok Sabha alone. The fact is Naveen Patnaik, AIADMK chief J. Jayalalithaa and that the best-stitched coalition will form a government in AS CONGRESS AND BJP Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief Mamata Banerjee. the next Lok Sabha. BJP knows it cannot form a government Pawar also discussed the matter with Samajwadi without an expanded NDA; it still remembers its lesson from DESPERATELYSEEK Party (SP) chief Mulayam Singh Yadav when the the debacle of 2009. When shorn of allies, it won just 116 PROSPECTIVE PARTNERS latter called on him for breakfast on March 20 at his seats. However, the deeply polarising figure of Narendra 6, Janpath home in New Delhi. Modi stands between BJP and an expanded NDA. It had not taken long for UPA’s instability to fan ambition. The Congress may be running out of allies in 2013, but ALLY NCP has only nine MPs in the Lok Sabha. That hasn’t dis- if BJP were to name Modi its prime ministerial candidate, the suaded the ailing Pawar from giving the top job a long shot. Congress will call on ‘secular’ parties to join UPA to defeat He needs the support of 263 additional MPs to become him. In Modi, the Congress sees opportunity. Of course, prime minister. Put together, all the parties he reached out hardly any potential ally of either of the two national parties to, beginning on March 19, add up to around 180 MPs. is in any hurry to commit to a pre-poll alliance. A pre-poll al- The task for the Congress to remain in majority until the liance requires seat adjustment. For now, smaller parties next General Elections scheduled for April-May 2014 is a which have a strong presence in a particular state want to lot easier. After the withdrawal of DMK, UPA is 38 seats short maximise their own numbers in order to be in a better BAZAAR (FROM LEFT) NITISH KUMAR, M. KARUNANIDHI, LALU PRASAD YADAV, J. JAYALALITHAA, MAYAWATI, MULAYAM SINGH YADAV, MAMATA BANERJEE, YSR JAGAN MOHAN REDDY, NAVEEN PATNAIK AND SHARAD PAWAR Graphics by SAURABH SINGH/www.indiatodayimages.com COVER STORY POLITICS bargaining position for a post-poll al- (LEFT) liance. That also includes newcomers SAMAJWADI like B.S. Yeddyurappa in Karnataka, PARTY CHIEF MULAYAM the former BJP chief minister who has SINGH YADAV now formed his own party and is set to WITH BJP challenge his former party in both the LEADERS Assembly elections in May and the Lok ARUN JAITLEY AND SUSHMA Sabha elections later. There is also the SWARAJ tantalising prospect, for smaller par- ties, of a Third Front government— should both Congress and BJP fail to muster up impressive tallies. That is what will ultimately force Pawar, Mulayam and their many compatriots in other non-national parties to keep the ally bazaar open for operation until after the next General Elections. SAMAJWADI PARTY Talking Up Third Front The goal is to position Mulayam for PM after the next election WEST BENGAL On March 29, during a meeting with CHIEF MINIS- party workers in Lucknow, Mulayam TER MAMATA asked them to start preparing for BANERJEE WITH UNION General Elections. The following day, MINISTER March 30, after Finance Minister KAPIL SIBAL PTI SHEKHAR YADAV/www.indiatodayimages.com P. Chidambaram flew down to Lucknow to assuage him, inaugurating 300 new branches of various banks across the On the one hand, the spectre of a CBI Drifting Muslim votes is a major an under-performing Akhilesh Yadav state and promising increased financial investigation into alleged corruption problem for SP. To correct this, the government. Party chief Mayawati has SAMAJWADI PARTY aid, the SP supremo appeared to soften by him and his sons Akhilesh and party’s Muslim face, Azam Khan, has spent the bulk of her time in Delhi since TRINAMOOL CONGRESS his stand. He said that the Central Prateek hangs over the family. On the Current Lok Sabha seats 22 prepared a 10-point Muslim Charter, losing power to SP in February 2012. Government should be allowed to other hand, there are several back- Going solo Most likely which was submitted to Mulayam in She is in no hurry for an election. Anti- Current Lok Sabha seats 19 Going solo Highly possible complete its full term since it had “just channel moves being made—including Fifty-four of the 80 Uttar Pradesh March. One of the main issues in this incumbency will only get worse with West Bengal may again vote for TMC eight-nine months to go anyway”. Chidambaram’s Lucknow visit—to per- seats have a decisive Muslim popula- proposal is 5-8 per cent reservation for time. Under the circumstances, she is a to keep CPI(M) out. Banerjee will be a In reality, however, it was not suade Mulayam that his interests lie in tion and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s eyes Muslims in the state, which will have to stable ally for the Congress until 2014. ‘queenmaker’if she gets more than Chidambaram’s sops which led to supporting the Congress. But with are firmly set on being PM. If he gets be cleared by the Centre. Still, the party is getting ready for 20 seats. If TMC wins 30 seats, she will Mulayam’s change of heart. Instead, it Mulayam harbouring prime ministe- more than 30 seats, he becomes polls. The party leader in the Vidhan decide who forms the government. was his own realisation that his grand rial ambitions, party sources say he’s in kingmaker. If he gets more than 40 BAHUJAN SAMAJ PARTY Sabha, Padrauna MLA Swami Prasad plan to topple the Government may not no mood to get into any seat-sharing seats, he becomes king. If he gets less Maurya, has confirmed that the BSP will Alliance with Congress work because of a trust deficit between arrangement, and is eager to eat into than 30, he is not significant. Wait until 2014 contest all 80 seats, and sources say the Possible but unlikely the various members of his proposed the Congress tally of 21 seats in the Mayawati is banking on anti- candidate for each constituency has Alliance with Congress Muslims, who form 25 per cent of the Third Front. Mulayam, rejuvenated by 2009 Lok Sabha polls. already been finalised. voters in West Bengal, will approve of Possible but unlikely 19% incumbency against SP rule the whiff of power, has been trying to Since SP’s vote bank over the last The Congress is taking no chances the alliance. Only problem is that she Muslim vote in UP will go to Congress put together a non-BJP, non-Congress two decades has been built on keeping R.A. Mittal, 45, in charge of BSP’s state and is using CBI to keep up the pressure has burnt bridges for the moment. and SP. But Mulayam will be concer- alliance at the Centre—with him at the ‘communal forces’ out, any pre-poll al- office in Lucknow, spends his days on the BSP chief. She is being probed by ned about dual anti-incumbency: Of Alliance with BJP led by helm. Though the only public meeting liance with BJP remains a political im- rustling through sheafs of paper com- CBI in a disproportionate assets case, his own state government and of UPA. Modi Unlikely She cannot among potential allies was the March possibility. But recent comments by piling a list of complaints he’s getting and her brother Anand Kumar, 37, is afford to alienate Muslims, decisive 20 one with Pawar, feelers have report- Mulayam’s cousin Ram Gopal Yadav in Alliance with BJP Unlikely from party workers from various dis- being investigated by the Enforcement in 24 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats. edly being sent to DMK in Chennai and praise of L.K. Advani suggest that Any pre-poll or post-poll tricts about the deteriorating law-and- Directorate as well as the Income Tax to BJD in Odisha. Mulayam would, for the first time, not alliance will destroy the respective order situation in the state. Department for alleged money launder- Alliance with BJP without The Congress, meanwhile, is using be averse to seeking outside support support bases of both SP and BJP, BSP’s strategy for the General ing. That has irritated Mayawati. After Modi Likely Only possible the carrot-and-stick approach to woo from BJP if it can help him become whether or not the latter is led by Elections is clear. It is going to try and having remained silent for several mon- post-poll.