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Home , Lalu Prasad Yadav, Naveen Patnaik, Sushilkumar Shinde

COVER STORY POLITICS

By Dhiraj Nayyar of a majority in the . It can make up the numbers with the outside support of SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party n March 19, soon after DMK withdrew sup- (BSP), which have 22 and 21 MPs respectively. However, the port to the United Progressive Alliance mercurial Mulayam has wasted no time in serving notice to (UPA) Government, Nationalist Congress the Congress. For now, the SP chief says he is not withdraw- Party (NCP) chief sent a ing support but insists elections will be held early, probably brief message via a set of emissaries to in November 2013. His fickleness has forced the Congress, his friends in the Opposition: “I want to which has 203 seats of its own, to seek insurance. The ally become prime minister for at least six bazaar is open for business. THE GREAT months.”O The message was conveyed to Nitin Gadkari The desperate search for allies is not restricted to the BARGAIN SEASON BEGINS and in BJP, to Biju (BJD) chief remaining term of the current Lok Sabha alone. The fact is Naveen Patnaik, AIADMK chief J. Jayalalithaa and that the best-stitched coalition will form a government in AS CONGRESS AND BJP Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief . the next Lok Sabha. BJP knows it cannot form a government Pawar also discussed the matter with Samajwadi without an expanded NDA; it still remembers its lesson from DESPERATELYSEEK Party (SP) chief Mulayam Singh when the the debacle of 2009. When shorn of allies, it won just 116 PROSPECTIVE PARTNERS latter called on him for breakfast on March 20 at his seats. However, the deeply polarising figure of Narendra 6, Janpath home in New Delhi. Modi stands between BJP and an expanded NDA. It had not taken long for UPA’s instability to fan ambition. The Congress may be running out of allies in 2013, but ALLY NCP has only nine MPs in the Lok Sabha. That hasn’t dis- if BJP were to name Modi its prime ministerial candidate, the suaded the ailing Pawar from giving the top job a long shot. Congress will call on ‘secular’ parties to join UPA to defeat He needs the support of 263 additional MPs to become him. In Modi, the Congress sees opportunity. Of course, prime minister. Put together, all the parties he reached out hardly any potential ally of either of the two national parties to, beginning on March 19, add up to around 180 MPs. is in any hurry to commit to a pre-poll alliance. A pre-poll al- The task for the Congress to remain in majority until the liance requires seat adjustment. For now, smaller parties next General Elections scheduled for April-May 2014 is a which have a strong presence in a particular state want to lot easier. After the withdrawal of DMK, UPA is 38 seats short maximise their own numbers in order to be in a better

BAZAAR (FROM LEFT) , M. KARUNANIDHI, LALU PRASAD YADAV, J. JAYALALITHAA, MAYAWATI, , MAMATA BANERJEE, YSR JAGAN MOHAN REDDY, NAVEEN PATNAIK AND SHARAD PAWAR

Graphics by SAURABH SINGH/www.indiatodayimages.com COVER STORY POLITICS

bargaining position for a post-poll al- (LEFT) liance. That also includes newcomers SAMAJWADI like B.S. Yeddyurappa in Karnataka, PARTY CHIEF MULAYAM the former BJP who has SINGH YADAV now formed his own party and is set to WITH BJP challenge his former party in both the LEADERS Assembly elections in May and the Lok AND SUSHMA Sabha elections later. There is also the SWARAJ tantalising prospect, for smaller par- ties, of a Third Front government— should both Congress and BJP fail to muster up impressive tallies. That is what will ultimately force Pawar, Mulayam and their many compatriots in other non-national parties to keep the ally bazaar open for operation until after the next General Elections.

SAMAJWADI PARTY Talking Up Third Front The goal is to position Mulayam for PM after the next election WEST BENGAL On March 29, during a meeting with CHIEF MINIS- party workers in Lucknow, Mulayam TER MAMATA asked them to start preparing for BANERJEE WITH UNION General Elections. The following day, MINISTER

March 30, after Finance Minister PTI SHEKHAR YADAV/www.indiatodayimages.com P. Chidambaram flew down to Lucknow to assuage him, inaugurating 300 new branches of various banks across the On the one hand, the spectre of a CBI Drifting Muslim votes is a major an under-performing Akhilesh Yadav state and promising increased financial investigation into alleged corruption problem for SP. To correct this, the government. Party chief Mayawati has aid, the SP supremo appeared to soften by him and his sons Akhilesh and party’s Muslim face, Azam Khan, has spent the bulk of her time in Delhi since TRINAMOOL CONGRESS his stand. He said that the Central Prateek hangs over the family. On the Current Lok Sabha seats 22 prepared a 10-point Muslim Charter, losing power to SP in February 2012. Government should be allowed to other hand, there are several back- Going solo Most likely which was submitted to Mulayam in She is in no hurry for an election. Anti- Current Lok Sabha seats 19 Going solo Highly possible complete its full term since it had “just channel moves being made—including Fifty-four of the 80 March. One of the main issues in this incumbency will only get worse with West Bengal may again vote for TMC eight-nine months to go anyway”. Chidambaram’s Lucknow visit—to per- seats have a decisive Muslim popula- proposal is 5-8 per cent reservation for time. Under the circumstances, she is a to keep CPI(M) out. Banerjee will be a In reality, however, it was not suade Mulayam that his interests lie in tion and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s eyes Muslims in the state, which will have to stable ally for the Congress until 2014. ‘queenmaker’if she gets more than Chidambaram’s sops which led to supporting the Congress. But with are firmly set on being PM. If he gets be cleared by the Centre. Still, the party is getting ready for 20 seats. If TMC wins 30 seats, she will Mulayam’s change of heart. Instead, it Mulayam harbouring prime ministe- more than 30 seats, he becomes polls. The party leader in the Vidhan decide who forms the government. was his own realisation that his grand rial ambitions, party sources say he’s in kingmaker. If he gets more than 40 BAHUJAN SAMAJ PARTY Sabha, Padrauna MLA Swami Prasad plan to topple the Government may not no mood to get into any seat-sharing seats, he becomes king. If he gets less Maurya, has confirmed that the BSP will Alliance with Congress work because of a trust deficit between arrangement, and is eager to eat into than 30, he is not significant. Wait until 2014 contest all 80 seats, and sources say the Possible but unlikely the various members of his proposed the Congress tally of 21 seats in the Mayawati is banking on anti- candidate for each constituency has Alliance with Congress Muslims, who form 25 per cent of the Third Front. Mulayam, rejuvenated by 2009 Lok Sabha polls. already been finalised. voters in West Bengal, will approve of Possible but unlikely 19% incumbency against SP rule the whiff of power, has been trying to Since SP’s vote bank over the last The Congress is taking no chances the alliance. Only problem is that she Muslim vote in UP will go to Congress put together a non-BJP, non-Congress two decades has been built on keeping R.A. Mittal, 45, in charge of BSP’s state and is using CBI to keep up the pressure has burnt bridges for the moment. and SP. But Mulayam will be concer- alliance at the Centre—with him at the ‘communal forces’ out, any pre-poll al- office in Lucknow, spends his days on the BSP chief. She is being probed by ned about dual anti-incumbency: Of Alliance with BJP led by helm. Though the only public meeting liance with BJP remains a political im- rustling through sheafs of paper com- CBI in a disproportionate assets case, his own state government and of UPA. Modi Unlikely She cannot among potential allies was the March possibility. But recent comments by piling a list of complaints he’s getting and her brother Anand Kumar, 37, is afford to alienate Muslims, decisive 20 one with Pawar, feelers have report- Mulayam’s cousin Ram Gopal Yadav in Alliance with BJP Unlikely from party workers from various dis- being investigated by the Enforcement in 24 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats. edly being sent to DMK in Chennai and praise of L.K. Advani suggest that Any pre-poll or post-poll tricts about the deteriorating law-and- Directorate as well as the Income Tax to BJD in . Mulayam would, for the first time, not alliance will destroy the respective order situation in the state. Department for alleged money launder- Alliance with BJP without The Congress, meanwhile, is using be averse to seeking outside support support bases of both SP and BJP, BSP’s strategy for the General ing. That has irritated Mayawati. After Modi Likely Only possible the carrot-and-stick approach to woo from BJP if it can help him become whether or not the latter is led by Elections is clear. It is going to try and having remained silent for several mon- post-poll. Pre-poll alliance will backfire, Mulayam for a pre-poll arrangement. prime minister. Narendra Modi. capitalise on anti-incumbency against ths, she came out strongly against the and is not needed.

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SHEKHAR YADAV/www.indiatodayimages.com CBI raids on DMK leader M.K. Stalin a day as Congress needs us.” Party leader pected to maintain distance from the CONGRESS PRESIDENT after the party had withdrawn support and MP Sultan Ahmed says there is “no party. Though she has tied up with BJP from the UPA Government. “CBI is being question” of a pre-poll alliance with before—she was part of Atal Bihari WITH BAHUJAN misused by the Central Government. either Congress or BJP. “We are going Vajpayee’s NDA government—any al- SAMAJ PARTY We condemn this because it not good for to contest Lok Sabha elections alone,” liance with BJP, particularly with Modi, LEADER BAHUJAN SAMAJ PARTY a healthy democracy,” Mayawati said he told INDIA TODAY. will involve a risk of losing the votes of MAYAWATI Current Lok Sabha seats 21 on March 21. But she was quick to ac- However, Chief Minister Mamata the state’s 25 per cent Muslim popula- Going solo Very likely Sixty of the 80 cuse both BJP and the Congress of in- Banerjee is open to a bargain with the tion. In pole position after her landslide seats in UP have a decisive Muslim- dulging in such practices when they are Congress in the run-up to the elections victory in the Assembly polls of 2011, combination, which is Mayawati’s in power. It was a statement befitting if the Centre allocates additional funds Banerjee is unwilling to take that risk. core constituency. She has targeted 40 her limitless political options. to West Bengal. Banerjee is looking for seats in UP and is in a serious contest a 25 per cent increase in Central funds JANATA DAL (UNITED) in 40 seats outside the state as well. TRINAMOOL CONGRESS for the financial year 2013-14. Sources Alliance with Congress Only claim that Prime Minister Manmohan The Swing Party possible post-poll Mayawati Go Solo, Bargain Later Singh continues to be in touch with A flexible Nitish Kumar could go doesn’t want to confuse her core con- Mamata Banerjee wants to win all Banerjee even after she stormed out of with BJP, Congress or Third Front stituency of 22 per cent in UP.If UPA over the issue of FDI in multi-brand of West Bengal’s 42 LS seats Congress needs support; she’ll oblige retail in September 2012. “Who knows Congress better than but not before her CBI cases are rested. In the Lok Sabha elections of 2009, TMC BJP, meanwhile, is yet to get its act you,” a light-hearted Chief contested only 26 out of the 42 seats in together and reach out to Banerjee as Minister Nitish Kumar chuckled to Alliance with BJP Unlikely West Bengal, winning 19. The rest a potential partner for the 2014 elec- a ministerial colleague, a former PRIME unless it supports her bid were contested by its then coalition tions. And now with Gujarat Chief Congressman, while recently referring MINISTER to be PM She has a winning chance in partner Congress which won six. In Minister Narendra Modi set to play a to the Congress promises of granting MANMOHAN UP only if she gets support of SINGH WITH 2014, TMC wants to contest all 42 Lok bigger national role, Banerjee is ex- special status to Bihar. Though and Muslims. She will be BIHAR CHIEF BJP Sabha seats to maximise its tally. GUJARAT CHIEF MINISTER NARENDRA MODI Nitish did not elaborate, a Janata MINISTER happy to take support if she gets Explains a party leader, “In terms of WITH DMK PATRIARCH M. KARUNANIDHI Dal-United (JD-U) leader present there NITISH KUMAR chance to be PM. vote share, TMC has over 40 per cent, the Left around 40 per cent and the SHEKHAR YADAV/www.indiatodayimages.com Congress only 13-14 per cent. We don’t need the Congress to win seats as much JANATA DAL (UNITED) Current Lok Sabha seats 20 Going solo Possible but unlikely Though Nitish would like to DMK win 20-odd seats from Bihar and Current Lok Sabha seats 18 become PM candidate, it is unlikely that he can win without BJP support. Going solo Quite likely They would like to win against AIADMK and Alliance with Congress be a part of any government at the Improbable and unlikely Centre. Going with the Congress JD(U) contests the elections against might not yield a more effective Lalu Yadav and the Congress in Bihar. It number, but it might ensure less of a cannot sup with the enemy. division of opposition votes. Alliance with BJP plus Modi PTI Alliance with Congress Improbable In a state where 17 per cent of the electorate is Muslim, Possible AIADMK, not explains that the Chief Minister was Bihar,” said the minister, referring to Congress, is its main rival in JD(U) has carved a niche in this vote suggesting how untrustworthy the JD(U) and Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Tamil Nadu. bank even after being in alliance with grand old party was. Janata Dal (RJD). “It doesn’t bother BJP. It needs to retain this especially if Alliance with BJP plus Modi On March 21, he castigated the them whoever wins.” Nitish wants to be projected as a Possible but unlikely Centre for “creating chaos in the coun- “I am telling you in all seriousness. potential prime minister. Only 6 per cent of the electorate try”. The Chief Minister, says a senior Please don’t see any political meanings in Tamil Nadu is Muslim. DMK JD(U) minister, has read the Congress to our bid for Bihar’s special status. Alliance with BJP without has been in NDA before UPA but very well. “Having successfully used There is no quid pro quo involved,” Modi Likely Either pre-poll the overt warmth between political rivals SP and BSP in Uttar Nitish told INDIA TODAY on March 28. or post-poll tie-up is fine. JD(U)’s Jayalalithaa and Modi is likely to Pradesh to its advantage, the Congress Party leaders, however, maintain that if combined vote bank with BJP has a lead keep them away. now wants to create parallel twins in Nitish exuded some warmth to the over RJD and the Congress.

22 INDIA TODAY ◆ April 15, 2013 NEW April 15, 2013 ◆ INDIA TODAY 23 AIADMK Current Lok Sabha seats 9 Going solo Highly possible Given a chance,Jayalalithaa would like to sweep the state on her own, raising her tally from the current nine out of 39 seats, and then set for Delhi as the ‘queenmaker’.Her party may very well become the third largest in Parliament. Alliance with Congress Improbable Jayalalithaa wouldn’t want to be affected by anti-incumbency against UPA and the Government’s stand on the Lankan Tamils issue. Alliance with BJP Possible and likely She doesn’t need them electorally but may tie up with them post-poll. K ASIF/www.indiatodayimages.com

TAMIL NADU CHIEF MINISTER J. JAYALALITHAA Modi as a potential prime ministerial Patnaik is most likely to put in his lot WITH PLANNING COMMISSION DEPUTY candidate would be a big hindrance. with a Third Front alliance, but only CHAIRMAN MONTEK SINGH AHLUWALIA “If he is projected as a PM candidate, post-elections. He is on extremely good Congress, he expected the Congress not Naveen Patnaik will have a real diffi- terms with Nitish and Mamata to stitch an alliance with RJD in Bihar. culty in backing BJP. It is, after all, over Banerjee but is said to be wary of SP Lalu of late has been attracting huge BJP’s communal tendencies that BJD and BSP. BJD faces simultaneous crowds and Nitish does not want the had pulled out of NDA and contested the Assembly and Lok Sabha polls. In Congress to add muscle to the RJD chief. 2009 elections alone,” says the BJD 2009, it won 108 of the 147 Assembly In return, Nitish may consider support- leader. BJD had then left NDA to protest seats and 14 of the 21 Lok Sabha seats ing a Congress-led government at the violence against Christians by Sangh- contesting alone. It seems only logical Centre in a post-poll scenario. Nitish affiliated organisations. to repeat that strategy. will pull the plug on his alliance with BJP Though BJP had not started any of- only if it formally announces Modi as its ficial talks with BJD for 2014, senior AIADMK AND DMK prime ministerial candidate. For now, BJP leader L.K. Advani has been in Congress Isolated JD(U) is sitting pretty in the company of constant touch with Patnaik. “Patnaik Jayalalithaa may go with Modi; BJP in Bihar. “Nitish has brought new has high regard for Advani but is not Congress will be routed alone development-based politics in Bihar. too keen to enter into any alliance Today, even his opponents are forced to with the party,” says the BJD leader. “Theirs is a hand that can only betray,” follow the new rule,” says Sanjay Jha, BJD leaders are still miffed with the said Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J. his close political aide. way BJP tried to placate Patnaik in Jayalalithaa in the state Assembly re- 2009 by sending a journalist-turned- cently, attacking the Congress for BIJU JANATA DAL MP. A BJP leader recalls how the emis- slashing Tamil Nadu’s kerosene quota. Lose-Lose Deal for BJP sary blundered. “He came to Dumped by DMK over the issue of Sri It cannot tie up with Congress but Patnaik’s house and started cracking Lankan Tamils, Congress is unlikely to jokes. His body language was offen- win over Jayalalithaa who, after her may prefer a Third Front to BJP sive, as if saying ‘you had better do crushing victory over DMK in the 2011 “If we tie up with the Congress, we will what I want you to do’. Patnaik may Assembly elections, is well positioned lose our own space. BJP will stand to be mild but is no pushover. BJP should to win a majority of the state’s 39 Lok gain from that,” says a senior BJD have sent a senior leader at that time. Sabha seats in the General Elections. leader, outlining the party’s limited The situation may have been differ- The odds are loaded against the pre-poll alliance options. Its only po- ent,” he added. Congress. It may claim anywhere up tential ally is BJP but the possibility of If BJP fails to make the right moves, to 10 per cent of the vote share in the

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PTI SONIA GANDHI WITH However, Jayalalithaa does not YSR CONGRESS CHIEF want to risk a pre-poll tie-up with BJP Y.S. JAGAN MOHAN REDDY for fear of losing the minority vote. Post-poll, though, if there is one ally that Modi and BJP can be reasonably sure of winning over to NDA, it is the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister. YSR CONGRESS Congress’s Waterloo could lay the ground for UPA’s defeat

YSR Congress is quickly emerging as the predominant political force in the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema region. Party leader Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy is in jail, deprived of bail, since his arrest on May 27, 2012 even as CBI continues its investigation into his investments. Yet, youthful aspirants, including Congress and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) MLAs, have made a beeline to Hyderabad’s Chanchalguda Prison to call on its most influential detainee. Jagan’s YSR Congress, launched in 2011, holds greater hope than any other party in Andhra Pradesh, includ- ing TDP, of riding the wave of anti- incumbency that is adversely affecting state, but this remains a claim, since the fortunes of the ruling Congress—in it has not contested any poll without office since 2004. alliance partners since it lost power After his intensive tour of the state back in 1967. YSR CONGRESS was aborted following his arrest, There may, however, be a ray of Current Lok Sabha seats 2 Jagan deputed sister Sharmila Reddy hope for Congress. Sources say DMK, Going solo Quite likely It would to continue the campaign in a gru- which is the leading partner in the do well in 25 seats in coastal Andhra elling walkathon to nurture the aspi- current Democratic Progressive and Rayalaseema, but may rations of voters to deliver on their Alliance (DPA) in the state, would not struggle in 17 seats. father’s unfinished agenda. want to burn all bridges and lose out Alliance with Congress Jagan is conscious of the fact that on the entire Congress vote bank his release on bail is being delayed on Possible Y.S.Jagan Mohan however depleted that may be. DMK is one count or another on the specious Reddy is contesting the elections on a weak wicket. Even if the plea that as an MP, he may influence against the Congress in Andhra Congress vote share is small, it may those who have to depose as witnesses Pradesh, and the Reddy vote bank be crucial in several constituencies on issues raised in the chargesheets feels betrayed by the ruling party. for DMK and could have a bearing on against him. YSR Congress believes Post-poll, if he decides to tie up the final alliance arithmetic. CBI is unlikely to file a final chargesheet with the Congress, it will be only due BJP and Narendra Modi are work- in the near future. It is convinced that to CBI pressure. ing to reach out to Jayalalithaa, one the ruling Congress is assuming that regional leader who is not averse to Alliance with BJP keeping Jagan in jail works to its Modi’s rise in national politics. She, in Possible Approximately 10 per advantage. But he is determined not to fact, attended Modi’s swearing-in as cent of the electorate is Muslim, but give in and return to the Congress Chief Minister of Gujarat each time in not in the region where YSR Congress before the elections. 2002, 2007 and 2012. The two lead- is the frontrunner. Even Christian Says D.A. Somayajulu, who is on ers share a personal warmth and voters who don’t support BJP are the party’s political affairs committee, mutual admiration. in a minority. “We are heading for another deeply

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BIJU JANATA DAL Current Lok Sabha seats 14 Going solo Very likely The party would like to win against the Congress and be part of a non-Congress government at the Centre. Alliance with Congress Unlikely Congress is BJD’s chief rival in Odisha. Alliance with BJP Quite possible As only 2 per cent of the electorate is Muslim in Odisha, BJD has no obligation to be secular, so Modi’s leadership doesn’t matter.A pre-poll or post-poll tie-up delivers a combined vote bank with a huge lead over Congress. PTI

fractured verdict after which nine or Given its past record of supporting the ODISHA CHIEF MINISTER NAVEEN PATNAIK 10 regional parties with a combined formation of smaller states, BJP may try WITH UNION FINANCE MINISTER P.CHIDAMBARAM tally of about 200 seats will call the and reach out to TRS. shots in forming the new government.” tured organisational structure and He rules out an alliance with BJP NATIONALIST CONGRESS PARTY have no charismatic leader after the though other sources say the YSR The Last Ally death of Bal Thackeray who could win Congress chief is keeping his options Congress’s most loyal partner the election for them. open. Post-poll, the YSR Congress may may exit for Pawar’s sake Pawar has often insisted that he strike a bargain with Congress on the will stick with UPA. “We have an pre-condition that the CBI cases against If there is one politician in India who alliance with Congress and it will Jagan are shelved. has friends across the political spec- continue till 2014,” he told reporters The situation is fluid in the 17 seats trum, it is Sharad Pawar. He hopes that on March 9 in . But that of the Telangana region. The migra- some of them will repay him for his was when DMK was a part of the tion of votes from the Congress to the support at crucial times in the past. Government and SP had not felt humil- pro-statehood Telangana Rashtra Crucially, Pawar is not averse in prin- iated because of an errant Congress Samithi (TRS) and the YSR Congress may ciple to ally with the Shiv Sena and BJP minister. Pawar is not going to rise speed up if the Centre fails to announce in , the state which is any further in UPA. In fact, his one-time a separate state. Jagan is already try- most crucial for NCP. protégé now ing to get some heavyweights from the The idea of a large anti-Congress sits in a far more important ministry Telangana districts to join his party in alliance in Maharashtra including NCP, than Pawar does. That may be order to constitute specific panels for BJP and Shiv Sena was first discussed temptation enough for the NCP chief to individual constituencies. at a meeting in Mumbai in 2004 in eventually break away from Congress TRS is banking on a pro-Telangana the presence of Pawar, BJP stalwart and ally with another formation. He wave engulfing large tracts of the L.K. Advani, the late Bal Thackeray can be sure that he will not be the region becoming the only issue. and the late Pramod Mahajan but only leader shopping for allies when “Winning at least 10 to 12 Lok Sabha curtailed at the last minute over a the time arrives. seats decisively on our own steam petty issue. “The idea could be with Kunal Pradhan, Bhavna Vij-Aurora, would give us the leverage, for it is revived,” says a NCP leader. Desperate Amarnath K. Menon, Kiran Tare, ultimately the new Parliament that will to return to the power in the state after Amitabh Srivastava, R. Ramasubramanian, have to deliver Telangana,” says TRS a hibernation of 14 years, BJP and Shiv S. Senthil Kumar and Ashish Misra MLA K.T. Rama Rao, son of party Sena are likely to endorse the idea. founder K. Chandrasekhara Rao. Both parties are suffering from a frac- Electoral analysis by CVoter

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