THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR KOREAN STUDIES RESEARCHING NORTH KOREA Sources, Methods, and Pitfalls YONHO KIM, EDITOR, NKEF Policy and Reseach Paper Series / 2021 YONHO KIM, EDITOR NKEF Policy and Reseach Paper Series / March 2021 THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR KOREAN STUDIES RESEARCHING NORTH KOREA Sources, Methods, and Pitfalls YONHO KIM, EDITOR, NKEF Policy and Reseach Paper Series / 2021 YONHO KIM, EDITOR NKEF Policy and Reseach Paper Series / March 2021 About the North Korea Economic Forum The North Korea Economic Forum (NKEF) is part of the policy program at the George Washington University’s Institute for Korean Studies (GWIKS). The Forum aims to pro- mote the understanding of North Korean economic issues, distribute well-balanced, deeply researched, and multi-dimensional insights on the North Korean economy and to expand networks among various North Korea watchers, scholars, and policymakers. The Forum mostly involves closed and off-the-record meetings, where participants can freely and seriously discuss critical issues. Mr. Daniel Wertz is currently the chair of NKEF and is leading the meetings. NKEF also organizes special conferences made public throughout the academic year. The Forum is made possible by a generous grant provided by the KDI School of Public Policy and Management. Editorial Board DANIEL WERTZ (Chair of the North Korea Economic JOONGHO KIM (Non-Resident Scholar at GWIKS and Forum at GWIKS and Program Manager at the National former Senior Research Fellow at the Export-Import Committee on North Korea) Bank of Korea) JISOO KIM (Director of GWIKS and Korea Foundation WILLIAM BROWN (Adjunct Professor at Georgetown Associate Professor of History, International Affairs, and University and former Senior Advisor to the National East Asian Languages and Literatures at GW) Intelligence Manager for East Asia in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence) JOHN MERRILL (Non-Resident Scholar at GWIKS and former Chief of the Northeast Asia Division in the State WILLIAM NEWCOMB (Fellow at C4ADS and former Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research) Member of UN Panel of Experts for North Korea) Policy and Research Paper Series on the North Korean Economy GWIKS-NKEF 2021 / MARCH 2021 Table of Contents PREFACE 2 INTRODUCTION Cutting Through the Fog: The Methodology of Researching North Korea Daniel Wertz 3 TRADITIONAL METHODOLOGY Qualitative Interviewing: Approaches and Techniques for Sensitive Topics Sandra Fahy 9 Researching a Hard Target: Analyzing North Korea with Official Economic Data Stephan Haggard and Liuya Zhang 19 The Uses and Challenges of Satellite Imagery in Researching North Korea Jenny Town 37 CUTTING EDGE Watching Through the Lens of a Long Telescope: Monitoring North Korean Sanctions Evasion in the Maritime Domain Neil Watts 46 The Lap of Luxury: Using Open-Source Data to Trace North Korea’s Procurement of Luxury Goods Andrea R. Mihailescu 58 BIOGRAPHIES 69 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 71 1 Preface North Korea has been considered a ‘hard target’ by analysts because of the country’s lack of transparency and accessibility. Its economy is no exception. With the dynamic marketization, North Korea watchers have difficulty collecting economic data and relevant information. Sources and methods themselves are often the main topics of debate among experts. In this context, the second part of the North Korea Economic Forum (NKEF) Annual Conference in October 2020 examined sources, methods and pitfalls of researching North Korea in the areas of in- terview techniques, official economic data, satellite imagery analyses, maritime monitoring, illicit finance networks, and unclassified commercial data. This collection of papers is a product of the conference sponsored by the KDI School of Public Policy and Management. The ongoing policy debates over how to address the challenges North Korea presents should be based on solid research methodologies in collecting and understanding information on the country. I hope this set of papers offers a range of views on conducting these important tasks. The first part of the 2020 NKEF Annual Conference examined the current development trends in North Korea in the areas of public infrastructure, tourism, and mobile telecommunications. The North Korean economy, which has already been experiencing pressure due to tight international sanctions, faced unprecedented economic challenges since the global outbreak of COVID-19. The health crisis revealed the vulnerability of North Korea’s economy and raised questions about the validity of Pyongyang’s economic development plans. The session pro- vided a unique opportunity for the Washington audience and beyond to understand the North Korean economy in a holistic way, learning about not only the current state of the North Korean economy but also its relationship to domestic politics, market forces, and international political and economic dynamics. NKEF is part of the policy program at the George Washington University’s Institute for Korean Studies (GWIKS). The Forum has been recognized by the North Korea watchers throughout the world as a center for knowl- edge-sharing and network-building, both private and public, on the North Korean economy which is relatively less discussed by the military and security-oriented Washington policy circle. Based on the successful launch of the edited collection of Policy and Research Paper Series, NKEF will continue publishing creative, in-depth analyses on the North Korean economy relevant for both academic audiences and policy specialists. Yonho Kim Editor, NKEF Policy and Research Paper Series 2021 2 NKEF POLICY AND RESEARCH PAPER SERIES 2021 DANIEL WERTZ Cutting Through the Fog: The Methodology of Researching North Korea Kim Jong Il, the second leader in the nied by state-assigned counterparts, and trade partners – has allowed analysts and dynasty that has ruled the Democratic generally must stick to a restrictive, set scholars to get a decent picture of de- People’s Republic of Korea for three gen- itinerary. The country has long remained velopments in North Korea, even if that erations, is reputed to have urged his sub- at the bottom of global rankings for picture is often incomplete or distorted. ordinates to keep the country “wrapped freedom of the press, and internet in a fog” (Cha and Sohn 2012, p. 74). access remains restricted to an elite few. This edited collection includes five That fog settled into place long before Pyongyang has long treated even certain essays by leading scholars and practi- Kim Jong Il’s assumption of power, and basic economic data as state secrets. tioners on how to conduct effective re- though it has dissipated to some extent Far-reaching international sanctions search on North Korea, focusing on both over the years, it still frustrates outsiders’ imposed on North Korea in recent years the use of traditional research methods efforts to understand North Korea. have only increased its government’s and the employment of more novel or incentives for opacity. cutting-edge approaches. Each of these There are few other countries where essays tracks different areas of research, political, social, and economic develop- But even if North Korea is still wrapped describing the different methodologies ments are harder to track than North Ko- in a fog, that does not mean that scholars and skill sets necessary to make the rea, and arguably none where external and analysts remain completely in the most out of the sources available while demand for such knowledge so greatly dark. Careful, dedicated research and avoiding various analytical pitfalls. They exceeds supply. Travelers to the country analysis – relying on everything from ref- cover traditionally academic approaches – whether tourists, scholars, journalists, ugee interviews, to satellite imagery, to to research, such as qualitative interviews or humanitarians – must be accompa- data published by Pyongyang’s foreign and economic data analysis, as well as 3 open source techniques that are more beneficial to governments, allowing of- other developing countries to emulate, often applied in investigative reporting. ficials to make claims and take action in the country remained secretive to friend ways that do not compromise confiden- and foe alike. North Korea is among the hardest of tial sources and methods. For example, hard targets for scholars and research- when researchers use open source infor- Nonetheless, there have always been ers, but careful and methodical efforts to mation to publicly identify parties who some channels available for outsiders to pierce the fog have tremendous value. have violated sanctions against North try to make sense of developments with- Such research enhances understanding Korea, it may make it easier for govern- in North Korea. State media publications of a country that plays an outsize role ment authorities to build a case against – newspapers, professional journals, on the international stage relative to its those parties, whether in a court of law records of Kim Il Sung’s speeches, and size and population, owing to its nuclear or within the UN Security Council. other sources – have long been accessi- program, the provocative actions of its ble to those with the ability to make use government, and the ongoing human Finally, careful and intellectually honest of them. Through the Cold War era, the rights abuses and humanitarian crises research on North Korea can serve as a Foreign Broadcast Information Service taking place within its territory. It takes counterpoint