Proceedings of the Estonian Academy of Sciences, 2010, 59, 2, 182–192 doi: 10.3176/proc.2010.2.18 Available online at www.eap.ee/proceedings Variations in extreme wave heights and wave directions in the north-eastern Baltic Sea Andrus Räämeta,b, Tarmo Soomerea*, and Inga Zaitseva-Pärnastea,c a Institute of Cybernetics at Tallinn University of Technology, Akadeemia tee 21, 12618 Tallinn, Estonia b Department of Mechanics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5, 19086 Tallinn, Estonia;
[email protected] c School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, Yorkshire, UK;
[email protected] Received 28 December 2009, revised 14 April 2010, accepted 14 April 2010 Abstract. Visual wave observations from the north-eastern coast of the Baltic Proper and from the southern coast of the Gulf of Finland and numerically hindcast wave properties for the entire Baltic Sea were used for the identification of combinations of wave heights and periods in extreme storms and long-term changes in extreme wave heights and wave propagation directions. The extreme wave heights and periods are about 7 m and 10–12 s in the northern Baltic Proper, about 6 m and 8–11 s at the entrance to the Gulf of Finland, and about 4 m and 6–8 s in the eastern part of this gulf. Wave hindcasts show no statistically significant trends in the 95%-iles and 99%-iles of the wave heights. Significant observed changes in the directional distribution of waves at Narva-Jõesuu from the 1980s are not represented in hindcasts.