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Machine Learning Based Intraday Calibration of End of Day Implied Volatility Surfaces
DEGREE PROJECT IN MATHEMATICS, SECOND CYCLE, 30 CREDITS STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN 2020 Machine Learning Based Intraday Calibration of End of Day Implied Volatility Surfaces CHRISTOPHER HERRON ANDRÉ ZACHRISSON KTH ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING SCIENCES Machine Learning Based Intraday Calibration of End of Day Implied Volatility Surfaces CHRISTOPHER HERRON ANDRÉ ZACHRISSON Degree Projects in Mathematical Statistics (30 ECTS credits) Master's Programme in Applied and Computational Mathematics (120 credits) KTH Royal Institute of Technology year 2020 Supervisor at Nasdaq Technology AB: Sebastian Lindberg Supervisor at KTH: Fredrik Viklund Examiner at KTH: Fredrik Viklund TRITA-SCI-GRU 2020:081 MAT-E 2020:044 Royal Institute of Technology School of Engineering Sciences KTH SCI SE-100 44 Stockholm, Sweden URL: www.kth.se/sci Abstract The implied volatility surface plays an important role for Front office and Risk Manage- ment functions at Nasdaq and other financial institutions which require mark-to-market of derivative books intraday in order to properly value their instruments and measure risk in trading activities. Based on the aforementioned business needs, being able to calibrate an end of day implied volatility surface based on new market information is a sought after trait. In this thesis a statistical learning approach is used to calibrate the implied volatility surface intraday. This is done by using OMXS30-2019 implied volatil- ity surface data in combination with market information from close to at the money options and feeding it into 3 Machine Learning models. The models, including Feed For- ward Neural Network, Recurrent Neural Network and Gaussian Process, were compared based on optimal input and data preprocessing steps. -
Tracking and Trading Volatility 155
ffirs.qxd 9/12/06 2:37 PM Page i The Index Trading Course Workbook www.rasabourse.com ffirs.qxd 9/12/06 2:37 PM Page ii Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons is the oldest independent publishing company in the United States. With offices in North America, Europe, Aus- tralia, and Asia, Wiley is globally committed to developing and marketing print and electronic products and services for our customers’ professional and personal knowledge and understanding. The Wiley Trading series features books by traders who have survived the market’s ever changing temperament and have prospered—some by reinventing systems, others by getting back to basics. Whether a novice trader, professional, or somewhere in-between, these books will provide the advice and strategies needed to prosper today and well into the future. For a list of available titles, visit our web site at www.WileyFinance.com. www.rasabourse.com ffirs.qxd 9/12/06 2:37 PM Page iii The Index Trading Course Workbook Step-by-Step Exercises and Tests to Help You Master The Index Trading Course GEORGE A. FONTANILLS TOM GENTILE John Wiley & Sons, Inc. www.rasabourse.com ffirs.qxd 9/12/06 2:37 PM Page iv Copyright © 2006 by George A. Fontanills, Tom Gentile, and Richard Cawood. All rights reserved. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. Published simultaneously in Canada. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600, or on the web at www.copyright.com. -
Are Defensive Stocks Expensive? a Closer Look at Value Spreads
Are Defensive Stocks Expensive? A Closer Look at Value Spreads Antti Ilmanen, Ph.D. November 2015 Principal For several years, many investors have been concerned about the apparent rich valuation of Lars N. Nielsen defensive stocks. We analyze the prices of these Principal stocks using value spreads and find that they are not particularly expensive today. Swati Chandra, CFA Vice President Moreover, valuations may have limited efficacy in predicting strategy returns. This piece lends insight into possible reasons by focusing on the contemporaneous relation (i.e., how changes in value spreads are related to returns over the same period). We highlight a puzzling case where a defensive long/short strategy performed well during a recent two- year period when its value spread normalized from abnormally rich levels. For most asset classes, cheapening valuations coincide with poor performance. However, this relationship turns out to be weaker for long/short factor portfolios where several mechanisms can loosen the presumed strong link between value spread changes and strategy returns. Such wedges include changing fundamentals, evolving positions, carry and beta mismatches. Overall, investors should be cognizant of the tenuous link between value spreads and returns. We thank Gregor Andrade, Cliff Asness, Jordan Brooks, Andrea Frazzini, Jacques Friedman, Jeremy Getson, Ronen Israel, Sarah Jiang, David Kabiller, Michael Katz, AQR Capital Management, LLC Hoon Kim, John Liew, Thomas Maloney, Lasse Pedersen, Lukasz Pomorski, Scott Two Greenwich Plaza Richardson, Rodney Sullivan, Ashwin Thapar and David Zhang for helpful discussions Greenwich, CT 06830 and comments. p: +1.203.742.3600 f: +1.203.742.3100 w: aqr.com Are Defensive Stocks Expensive? A Closer Look at Value Spreads 1 Introduction puzzling result — buying a rich investment, seeing it cheapen, and yet making money — in Are defensive stocks expensive? Yes, mildly, more detail below. -
Evidence from SME Bond Markets
Temi di discussione (Working Papers) Asymmetric information in corporate lending: evidence from SME bond markets by Alessandra Iannamorelli, Stefano Nobili, Antonio Scalia and Luana Zaccaria September 2020 September Number 1292 Temi di discussione (Working Papers) Asymmetric information in corporate lending: evidence from SME bond markets by Alessandra Iannamorelli, Stefano Nobili, Antonio Scalia and Luana Zaccaria Number 1292 - September 2020 The papers published in the Temi di discussione series describe preliminary results and are made available to the public to encourage discussion and elicit comments. The views expressed in the articles are those of the authors and do not involve the responsibility of the Bank. Editorial Board: Federico Cingano, Marianna Riggi, Monica Andini, Audinga Baltrunaite, Marco Bottone, Davide Delle Monache, Sara Formai, Francesco Franceschi, Salvatore Lo Bello, Juho Taneli Makinen, Luca Metelli, Mario Pietrunti, Marco Savegnago. Editorial Assistants: Alessandra Giammarco, Roberto Marano. ISSN 1594-7939 (print) ISSN 2281-3950 (online) Printed by the Printing and Publishing Division of the Bank of Italy ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION IN CORPORATE LENDING: EVIDENCE FROM SME BOND MARKETS by Alessandra Iannamorelli†, Stefano Nobili†, Antonio Scalia† and Luana Zaccaria‡ Abstract Using a comprehensive dataset of Italian SMEs, we find that differences between private and public information on creditworthiness affect firms’ decisions to issue debt securities. Surprisingly, our evidence supports positive (rather than adverse) selection. Holding public information constant, firms with better private fundamentals are more likely to access bond markets. Additionally, credit conditions improve for issuers following the bond placement, compared with a matched sample of non-issuers. These results are consistent with a model where banks offer more flexibility than markets during financial distress and firms may use market lending to signal credit quality to outside stakeholders. -
307439 Ferdig Master Thesis
Master's Thesis Using Derivatives And Structured Products To Enhance Investment Performance In A Low-Yielding Environment - COPENHAGEN BUSINESS SCHOOL - MSc Finance And Investments Maria Gjelsvik Berg P˚al-AndreasIversen Supervisor: Søren Plesner Date Of Submission: 28.04.2017 Characters (Ink. Space): 189.349 Pages: 114 ABSTRACT This paper provides an investigation of retail investors' possibility to enhance their investment performance in a low-yielding environment by using derivatives. The current low-yielding financial market makes safe investments in traditional vehicles, such as money market funds and safe bonds, close to zero- or even negative-yielding. Some retail investors are therefore in need of alternative investment vehicles that can enhance their performance. By conducting Monte Carlo simulations and difference in mean testing, we test for enhancement in performance for investors using option strategies, relative to investors investing in the S&P 500 index. This paper contributes to previous papers by emphasizing the downside risk and asymmetry in return distributions to a larger extent. We find several option strategies to outperform the benchmark, implying that performance enhancement is achievable by trading derivatives. The result is however strongly dependent on the investors' ability to choose the right option strategy, both in terms of correctly anticipated market movements and the net premium received or paid to enter the strategy. 1 Contents Chapter 1 - Introduction4 Problem Statement................................6 Methodology...................................7 Limitations....................................7 Literature Review.................................8 Structure..................................... 12 Chapter 2 - Theory 14 Low-Yielding Environment............................ 14 How Are People Affected By A Low-Yield Environment?........ 16 Low-Yield Environment's Impact On The Stock Market........ -
Users/Robertjfrey/Documents/Work
AMS 511.01 - Foundations Class 11A Robert J. Frey Research Professor Stony Brook University, Applied Mathematics and Statistics [email protected] http://www.ams.sunysb.edu/~frey/ In this lecture we will cover the pricing and use of derivative securities, covering Chapters 10 and 12 in Luenberger’s text. April, 2007 1. The Binomial Option Pricing Model 1.1 – General Single Step Solution The geometric binomial model has many advantages. First, over a reasonable number of steps it represents a surprisingly realistic model of price dynamics. Second, the state price equations at each step can be expressed in a form indpendent of S(t) and those equations are simple enough to solve in closed form. 1+r D-1 u 1 1 + r D 1 + r D y y ÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅ = u fl u = 1+r D u-1 u 1+r-u 1 u 1 u yd yd ÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅ1+r D ÅÅÅÅÅÅÅÅ1 uêÅÅÅÅ-ÅÅÅÅu ÅÅ H L H ê L i y As we will see shortlyH weL Hwill solveL the general problemj by solving a zsequence of single step problems on the lattice. That K O K O K O K O j H L H ê L z sequence solutions can be efficientlyê computed because wej only have to zsolve for the state prices once. k { 1.2 – Valuing an Option with One Period to Expiration Let the current value of a stock be S(t) = 105 and let there be a call option with unknown price C(t) on the stock with a strike price of 100 that expires the next three month period. -
VERTICAL SPREADS: Taking Advantage of Intrinsic Option Value
Advanced Option Trading Strategies: Lecture 1 Vertical Spreads – The simplest spread consists of buying one option and selling another to reduce the cost of the trade and participate in the directional movement of an underlying security. These trades are considered to be the easiest to implement and monitor. A vertical spread is intended to offer an improved opportunity to profit with reduced risk to the options trader. A vertical spread may be one of two basic types: (1) a debit vertical spread or (2) a credit vertical spread. Each of these two basic types can be written as either bullish or bearish positions. A debit spread is written when you expect the stock movement to occur over an intermediate or long- term period [60 to 120 days], whereas a credit spread is typically used when you want to take advantage of a short term stock price movement [60 days or less]. VERTICAL SPREADS: Taking Advantage of Intrinsic Option Value Debit Vertical Spreads Bull Call Spread During March, you decide that PFE is going to make a large up move over the next four months going into the Summer. This position is due to your research on the portfolio of drugs now in the pipeline and recent phase 3 trials that are going through FDA approval. PFE is currently trading at $27.92 [on March 12, 2013] per share, and you believe it will be at least $30 by June 21st, 2013. The following is the option chain listing on March 12th for PFE. View By Expiration: Mar 13 | Apr 13 | May 13 | Jun 13 | Sep 13 | Dec 13 | Jan 14 | Jan 15 Call Options Expire at close Friday, -
A Glossary of Securities and Financial Terms
A Glossary of Securities and Financial Terms (English to Traditional Chinese) 9-times Restriction Rule 九倍限制規則 24-spread rule 24 個價位規則 1 A AAAC see Academic and Accreditation Advisory Committee【SFC】 ABS see asset-backed securities ACCA see Association of Chartered Certified Accountants, The ACG see Asia-Pacific Central Securities Depository Group ACIHK see ACI-The Financial Markets of Hong Kong ADB see Asian Development Bank ADR see American depositary receipt AFTA see ASEAN Free Trade Area AGM see annual general meeting AIB see Audit Investigation Board AIM see Alternative Investment Market【UK】 AIMR see Association for Investment Management and Research AMCHAM see American Chamber of Commerce AMEX see American Stock Exchange AMS see Automatic Order Matching and Execution System AMS/2 see Automatic Order Matching and Execution System / Second Generation AMS/3 see Automatic Order Matching and Execution System / Third Generation ANNA see Association of National Numbering Agencies AOI see All Ordinaries Index AOSEF see Asian and Oceanian Stock Exchanges Federation APEC see Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation API see Application Programming Interface APRC see Asia Pacific Regional Committee of IOSCO ARM see adjustable rate mortgage ASAC see Asian Securities' Analysts Council ASC see Accounting Society of China 2 ASEAN see Association of South-East Asian Nations ASIC see Australian Securities and Investments Commission AST system see automated screen trading system ASX see Australian Stock Exchange ATI see Account Transfer Instruction ABF Hong -
Options Strategy Guide for Metals Products As the World’S Largest and Most Diverse Derivatives Marketplace, CME Group Is Where the World Comes to Manage Risk
metals products Options Strategy Guide for Metals Products As the world’s largest and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group is where the world comes to manage risk. CME Group exchanges – CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX – offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes, including futures and options based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural commodities, metals, weather and real estate. CME Group brings buyers and sellers together through its CME Globex electronic trading platform and its trading facilities in New York and Chicago. CME Group also operates CME Clearing, one of the largest central counterparty clearing services in the world, which provides clearing and settlement services for exchange-traded contracts, as well as for over-the-counter derivatives transactions through CME ClearPort. These products and services ensure that businesses everywhere can substantially mitigate counterparty credit risk in both listed and over-the-counter derivatives markets. Options Strategy Guide for Metals Products The Metals Risk Management Marketplace Because metals markets are highly responsive to overarching global economic The hypothetical trades that follow look at market position, market objective, and geopolitical influences, they present a unique risk management tool profit/loss potential, deltas and other information associated with the 12 for commercial and institutional firms as well as a unique, exciting and strategies. The trading examples use our Gold, Silver -
What Drives Index Options Exposures?* Timothy Johnson1, Mo Liang2, and Yun Liu1
Review of Finance, 2016, 1–33 doi: 10.1093/rof/rfw061 What Drives Index Options Exposures?* Timothy Johnson1, Mo Liang2, and Yun Liu1 1University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and 2School of Finance, Renmin University of China Abstract 5 This paper documents the history of aggregate positions in US index options and in- vestigates the driving factors behind use of this class of derivatives. We construct several measures of the magnitude of the market and characterize their level, trend, and covariates. Measured in terms of volatility exposure, the market is economically small, but it embeds a significant latent exposure to large price changes. Out-of-the- 10 money puts are the dominant component of open positions. Variation in options use is well described by a stochastic trend driven by equity market activity and a sig- nificant negative response to increases in risk. Using a rich collection of uncertainty proxies, we distinguish distinct responses to exogenous macroeconomic risk, risk aversion, differences of opinion, and disaster risk. The results are consistent with 15 the view that the primary function of index options is the transfer of unspanned crash risk. JEL classification: G12, N22 Keywords: Index options, Quantities, Derivatives risk 20 1. Introduction Options on the market portfolio play a key role in capturing investor perception of sys- tematic risk. As such, these instruments are the object of extensive study by both aca- demics and practitioners. An enormous literature is concerned with modeling the prices and returns of these options and analyzing their implications for aggregate risk, prefer- 25 ences, and beliefs. Yet, perhaps surprisingly, almost no literature has investigated basic facts about quantities in this market. -
Section 4. Complex Strategies
Section 4. Complex strategies This section will discuss the more complex option strategies and will present examples of these strategies. The previous section covered the simpler option trading strategies, mainly the buying and selling of puts and calls. These simpler strategies are usually thought of as very aggressive strategies, with high profit potential on the long side and large risk on the short side. This section will examine option positions which are structured by combining options of different terms, put and call options, or options and stock positions. Because they provide reduced risk, some of these strategies are much more conservative than the simpler strategies. It is of the utmost importance that the trader understand the risk/reward characteristics of any strategy that he or she is considering. A Note about Commissions Because the more complex strategies involve multiple positions, commission costs can be substantial. For this reason, it is advantageous to keep commissions as low as possible through the use of discount brokers, etc. Margin For covered positions, the user can elect to use margin for the purchase of stock. When Use margin is selected, Cash Outlay will Note only include the margin requirement for the stock and Cash ROI is Margin rates can be viewed based on the margin requirement rather than the full value of the and/or modified through the stock. Margin Criteria page of Certain of the complex option strategies are credit positions. That is, Broker/Margin Properties at the time the position is entered, a net credit is received. In this respect, they are similar to the naked write option strategies discussed in the previous section in that the option trader does not make a cash investment. -
Options Application (PDF)
Questions? Go to Fidelity.com/options. Options Application Use this application to apply to add options trading to your new or existing Fidelity account. If you already have options trading on your account, use this application to add or update account owner or authorized agent information. Please complete in CAPITAL letters using black ink. If you need more room for information or signatures, make a copy of the relevant page. Helpful to Know Requirements – Margin can involve significant cost and risk and is not • Entire form must be completed in order to be considered appropriate for all investors. Account owners must for Options. If you are unsure if a particular section pertains determine whether margin is consistent with their investment to you, please call a Fidelity investment professional at objectives, income, assets, experience, and risk tolerance. 800-343-3548. No investment or use of margin is guaranteed to achieve any • All account owners must complete the account owner sections particular objective. and sign Section 5. – Margin will not be granted if we determine that you reside • Any authorized agent must complete Section 6 and sign outside of the United States. Section 7. – Important documents related to your margin account include • Trust accounts must provide trustee information where the “Margin Agreement” found in the Important Information information on account owners is required. about Margins Trading and Its Risks section of the Fidelity Options Agreement. Eligibility of Trading Strategies Instructions for Corporations and Entities Nonretirement accounts: • Unless options trading is specifically permitted in the corporate • Business accounts: Eligible for any Option Level.