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The Project for Study on Dili Urban Master Plan in the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste

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The Project for Study on Dili Urban Master Plan in the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste Ministry of Planning and Strategic Investment Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste The Project for Study on Dili Urban Master Plan in the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste Final Report Part II: The Master Plan October 2016 Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Pacet Corp. EI JR 16-132 Ministry of Planning and Strategic Investment Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste The Project for Study on Dili Urban Master Plan in the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste Final Report Part II: The Master Plan October 2016 Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Pacet Corp. CONVERSION RATE (As of September 2016) 1 USD = JPY 102.13, 1 JPY = USD 0.00979 Source: JICA Website The Project for Study on Dili Urban Master Plan in the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste Final Report PART II: THE MASTER PLAN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8. VISION, FRAMEWORK, AND URBAN STRUCTURE Vision 8.1 The Dili Metropolitan Area (DMA) Vision is formulated with reference to the related plans and inputs from stakeholders. Both the counterparts and the JICA Project Team (JPT) proposed the “beloved and brilliant national capital” as an idea of vision, supported by four pillars such as “robust economic hub”, “high-quality of life”, “rich social and cultural center”, and “healthy and eco-friendly society”. The four viewpoints, namely: “linkage”, “human resources”, “sustainability”, and “resilience”, should be addressed to realize DMA Vision 2030, when development strategy and programs/projects are formulated. Framework 8.2 Based on the detailed review and analysis of the projection of the Census 2010 mentioned in Section 8.1 above, the five projection scenarios are considered for the project area, namely: Case-1: Rapid Migration Scenario (annual average growth rate of 5.77%), Case-2: Census Scenario (4.61%), Case-3: Moderate Migration Scenario (3.94%), Case-4: Minimum Migration Scenario (3.03%), and Case-5: No Migration Scenario (2.48%). 8.3 As a macroeconomic framework, the four growth scenarios are created based on the past growth performance, SDP target, and the future perspective of the national economy. High growth scenario targets an annual average gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 11.2% after 2021 towards 2030, moderate growth of 8.3%, low growth of 6.4%, and lowest growth of 5.6%. 8.4 JPT proposed that Case-3: Moderate Migration Scenario for the population projection and the moderate growth case for GDP projection be adopted as development framework of the project area in the Working Group-3 Socio-Economy, noting that the moderate case (in line with the SDP target) could be the growth target rather than the aggressive high case and the bit inactive low case. Verification study by the project team concludes that the combination of both scenarios is the most suitable development framework. The result of the projections is summarized in the table below. Projection Result of Population and GDP Annual Avg. Adopted Scenarios 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Growth Rate Population: Case-3: Moderate 223,793 283,034 351,137 422,524 492,251 3.94% Migration GDP (USD million): 934 1,526 2,428 3,863 6,145 9.9% Moderate Growth Per Capita GDP (USD): 858 1,195 1,666 2,322 3,237 6.9% Moderate Growth Source: JICA Project Team projected based on Census 2010 and SDP Regional Spatial Direction for DMA 8.5 The Timor-Leste Strategic Development Plan (2011-2030) (hereinafter referred to as “SDP”) as the upper development planning framework describes the key spatial development strategies. On the other hand, the National Spatial Plan of Timor-Leste (hereinafter referred to as “PNOT”) is currently under discussion and has not been approved yet. In this context, the following are main development directions to be reflected into the Dili Urban Master Plan, taking account of the spatial development strategies of SDP to formulate “equitable development”, “regional NIPPON KOEI CO., LTD. PAC ET C ORP. ES-II-1 The Project for Study on Dili Urban Master Plan in the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste Final Report development corridors”, “national strategic zones”, and “sustainable agriculture production zone and forest conservation zones”: Promoting international (regional) linkage Leading and stimulating regional socioeconomic development on the regional development corridors Integrating effective socioeconomic development mechanism taking account of urban-rural linkage and access network Formulating attractive and competitive core as the capital for national socioeconomic development Establishing effective administrative coordination mechanism beyond administrative jurisdictions (municipality) Urban Structure 8.6 JPT took the steps below to propose the spatial structure plan of DMA through the evaluation of scenarios in the strategic environmental assessment (SEA). JPT took two types of evaluations applicable to the development visions and in the environmental and social impacts. The National Directorate of Housing and Urban Planning (DNHPU) of the Ministry of Public Works, Transportation, and Communication (MoPWTC) (now belonging to Ministry of Planning and Strategic Investment (MPSI)) explained the process and results of the evaluations in the 2nd Public Consultation meetings held in Dili, Hera and Tibar in December 2014. i) Set-up of the spatial structure scenarios ii) Evaluation of the scenarios applicable or suitable to the development visions iii) Evaluation of the scenarios in environmental and social impacts iv) Overall evaluation v) Proposed mitigation measures vi) Public involvement (public consultation meetings) 8.7 JPT set up three spatial structure scenarios for DMA by referring to the three scenarios of population projection cases, namely: maximum (case-1), proposed (case-3), and minimum (case-5), as three alternatives to compare as shown below. Scenario 1: This alternative represented by “do-nothing case” under case-1 (600,000-700,000 population, 97 person/ha on average) would require maximization of urban development in association with large investment cost to manage lands involving possible natural hazard prone areas. Scenario 2: Alternative 2 with concept of “urban cluster growth” development under case-3 (450,000-550,000 population, 75 person/ha on average) expects moderate utilization of land within habitable lands to formulate main urban center and satellite town developments in Hera and Tibar. Scenario 3: In conjunction with case-5 population growth (350,000-400,000 population, 52 person/ha on average) where every urban development will absorb certain magnitude of population and employment in each major town of Timor-Leste such as Baucau and Suai will be achieved in 2030, Scenario 3 would enable to form “compact city” without major large settlement in Tibar and Hera. 8.8 Three spatial structure scenarios for DMA were assessed quantitatively by eight indicators for sustainable development taking account of the achievement of the “development vision” and the “anticipated impacts” of the indicators. The indicators were defined as measures for achieving “development vision” supported by four pillars of “robust economic hub”, “health and eco-friendly society”, “high quality of life”, and “rich social and culture center”. The results indicated that Scenario 2 was the most suitable urban structure of DMA for the visions as it was NIPPON KOEI CO., LTD. PAC ET C ORP. ES-II-2 The Project for Study on Dili Urban Master Plan in the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste Final Report balanced among the development visions. 8.9 Evaluation of the scenarios in terms of environmental and social impacts: In comparison, the size of the population is the main point of view to determine the differences in the environmental and social impacts among the scenarios. As a result, Scenario 1 should be avoided, as the most adverse impacts are expected in the densely-populated area. Scenario 3 is a comparatively better scenario, as the scenario is expected to cause the least negative impacts on pollution and natural environment, and can maintain the present conditions, but the positive impacts on socioeconomic development such as agglomeration effects and synergistic effects are low. On the other hand, Scenario 2 is also favorable because it has the most positive impacts on social environment such as activation of local economy, efficient land use, and preservation and protection of cultural heritage; and has medium adverse impacts on the pollution and natural environment. Scenario 2 is balanced in terms of the adverse impacts and the positive impacts on the environmental and social conditions. Meanwhile, the adverse impacts on pollution and nature of Scenario 2 can be reduced and mitigated. 8.10 Evaluating holistically these three scenarios through the two types of evaluations based on the views of development visions and environmental impacts, JPT proposes Scenario 2 as the appropriate urban spatial structure of DMA. Scenario 1 is the worst scenario and should be avoided as the urban spatial structure of DMA. The scenario is not applicable to realize the development visions and will raise adverse impacts on environmental and social conditions. Scenario 2 is best for the development visions of DMA and has the most positive impacts on the social environment with medium adverse impacts on pollution and natural environment. Scenario 3 is also decent in terms of the environmental and social impacts; however, it will require large investment cost over time for successful economic development distribution to the entire country against the current trend of social migration into Dili. Besides, this is still inefficient and ineffective in terms of land use of DMA especially for Hera and Tibar. Development Road Map 8.11 JPT defines development roadmap as a road map or a development path of the project area to attain development vision and to form the proposed urban structure during the planning period. The planning period is divided into three phases in the roadmap. In this project, JPT set three phases, namely: i) Phase 1: 2015-2020, ii) Phase 2: 2021-2025, and iii) Phase 3: 2026-2030.
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