The Politics of Climate Change (Mainly in the USA Since 1988)
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The Politics of Climate Change (mainly in the USA since 1988) Paul N. Edwards School of Information and Dept. of History How did global warming become a global issue? } 1950s: re-emergence of CO2 theory } 1960s: issue entrepreneurship by scientists, mainly in USA } 1970s: internationalization and stabilization } Rise of environmentalism } Executive agencies (DoE, EPA) created and involved } Precursors: SST, Limits to Growth, UN Conference on the Human Environment } 1979: Charney report stabilizes projected range of warming } 1.5-4.5°C on CO2 doubling } 1980s: beginnings of institutionalization } Formation of IPCC (1988) } Precursors: nuclear winter, ozone hole, Montreal Protocol Late 1980s-present: climate change as mass politics } Numerous US, European global warming research programs by mid-1980s } DoE, EPA reports in 1983 raised alarm } First climate-oriented NGO: Climate Institute, est. 1986 } US Global Climate Protection Act (1987) } Directed President, EPA, Secretary of State to establish national climate policy Apocalypse gap 1988 1989 1990 4 Paul N. Edwards, University of Michigan 15 December 2013 Hansen looks back on his 1988 testimony 20 years later… 5 Paul N. Edwards, University of Michigan 15 December 2013 The first IPCC assessment report (1990) “The size of [observed] warming [0.3-0.6°C] is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models, but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability. Thus the observed increase could be largely due to this natural variability, alternatively this variability and other human factors could have offset a still larger human-induced greenhouse warming. The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more.” (Policymakers Summary, XII) The Framework Convention on Climate Change } Adopted by UN in 1992 } Committed parties to negotiate a climate treaty } Not a regulatory convention } Signed by most of world’s nations } Supported and signed by George H. Bush administration (USA) } Ongoing, annual Conferences of Parties (COP) } But a binding commitment to negotiate does not lead automatically to an actionable agreement Institutional framework of the IPCC and UNFCCC UN General Assembly UNEP WMO Intergovernmental Panel UN Framework Convention On Climate Change On Climate Change IPCC UNFCCC Source: Redrawn from Vital Climate Graphics The IPCC is the scientific advisor to the FCCC } About 2,500 leading climate scientists and technical experts } Provides comprehensive, balanced assessments of climate change science, impacts, and adaptation and mitigation options } Extensive peer review and governmental review } Awarded Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 The Kyoto Protocol (1997): Structure } Regulates only CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride, and fluorocarbons } Annex I (developed world): binding commitment to reduce emissions to below 1990 levels } Non-Annex I (developing world): voluntary targets } Large boost toward targets from end of Cold War } Reduced economic activity in states of former Soviet Union } Rapid replacement of old, inefficient technology for power, heating, transport Kyoto Protocol status, 2011 Dark green: ratified, Annex I Light green: ratified, Annex 2 Only countries not to ratify: Brown: will not ratify USA, Afghanistan, Sudan, and Andorra Red: withdrew in 2011 Kyoto Protocol: costs/benefits } Costs very small: 0.1% of Annex I GDP } would have been 0.2% with US participation } Benefits: have not been reliably measured, but probably not large 1980 carbon dioxide emissions Year 2000 carbon dioxide emissions 2009 Carbon dioxide emissions Change in total CO2 emissions Carbon dioxide emissions per capita (2000) China: skyrocketing emissions Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes. This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. Number of scientific studies dealing with “climate change” published in scientific journals between 1993 and 2003: Number disagreeing with the global consensus that greenhouse gas pollution has caused most of the warming of the last 50 years: Science, December 3, 2004 Vol. 306, Issue 5702,1686 EOS VOLUME 90 NUMBER 3 20 JANUARY 2009 Mineral Physics cont. from page 21 it possible to directly probe some of these properties in situ statically using advanced synchrotron light sources and detecting techniques. Scientists are also gearing up in building new facilities that will help couple dynamic shock wave techniques with syn- chrotron light sources so as to allow in situ TRANSACTIONS probing of these properties under extreme AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION dynamic conditions. Efforts to search for The Newspaper of the Earth and Space Sciences and develop universal pressure and temper- Editors ature scales are also under way to establish consistent results for a coherent picture of Anny Cazenave: Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales, the core. The expectation of mineral physi- Toulouse, France; [email protected] cists involved with these efforts is that within a decade, these mineral physics missions to John W. Geissman: Department of Earth and the Earth’s core will provide crucial informa- Planetary Science,University of New Mexico, tion to greatly enhance our understanding of Albuquerque, USA; [email protected] the nature of the core. Wendy S. Gordon: Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, Austin, USA; wendy.gordon@tpwd Acknowledgments .state.tx.us Manuel Grande: University of Wales, We acknowledge S. D. Jacobsen for con- Aberystwyth; [email protected] structive comments. Leonid Dubrovin- sky is supported by Deutsche Forschungs- Hassan Virji: START, Washington, D. C., USA; gemeinschaft (DFG) and European Science [email protected] Foundation EuroMinSci programs. Jung- Fu Lin is supported by the U.S. National Sci- Fig. 2. Representative phase diagram of iron and iron- nickel alloys at high pressures and Editor in Chief pro tem ence Foundation Geophysics Directorate temperatures. The hcp iron is stable over a wide range of pressures and temperatures, while Judy C. Holoviak: AGU, Washington, D.C., USA; ( EAR- 0838221), Carnegie/ Department of bcc iron is predicted to exist in the inner core (blue dashed line) and bcc iron with 10% eos_ [email protected] Energy Alliance Center ( CDAC), and Con- nickel alloy is experimentally observed at 225 gigapascals and 3400 K (blue hexagon). sortium of Materials Properties Research in Melting curves of iron measured from shock waves (red diamonds) are much higher than Editorial Advisory Board Earth Sciences ( COMPRES). static diamond cell results (black dashed line). Shaded area indicates current survey of the M. Lee Allison Earth and Space Sciences melting temperatures of iron at core pressures; inset shows hcp iron with 10% nickel alloy at Informatics References 195 gigapascals and 2150 K. Roni Avissar Global Environmental Change Antonangeli, D., F. Occelli, H. Requardt, J. Badro, ropy of Earth’s inner core, Science, 319(5864), Vočadlo, L., D. Alfè, M. J. Gillan, I. G. Wood, J. P. Roland Bürgmann Tectonophysics G. Fiquet, and M. Krisch (2004), Elastic anisot- 797–800. Brodholt, and G. D. Price (2003), Possible ther- ropy in textured hcp- iron to 112 GPa from sound Dubrovinsky, L., et al. (2007), Body- centered mal and chemical stabilization of body- centred- Noah S. Diffenbaugh Atmospheric Sciences wave propagation measurements, Earth Planet. cubic iron- nickel alloy in Earth’s core, Science, cubic iron in the Earth’s core, Nature, 424(6948), Sci. Lett., 225(1- 2), 243–251. 316(5833), 1880–1883. 536–539. John E. Ebel Seismology Badro, J., G. Fiquet, F. Guyot, E. Gregoryanz, F. Occel- Lin, J.- F. , W. S t u r h a h n , J. Zhao, G. Shen, H.-K. Mao, and R. J. li, D. Antonangeli, and M. d’Astuto (2007), Effect of Hemley (2005), Sound velocities of hot dense iron: Author Information Michael N. Gooseff Hydrology light elements on the sound velocities in solid iron: Birch’s law revisited, Science, 308(5730), 1892–1894. Implications for the composition of Earth’s core, Vočadlo, L. (2007), Ab initio calculations of the Leonid Dubrovinsky, University of Bayreuth, Bay- Stephen Macko Education Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 254(1- 2), 233–238. elasticity of iron and iron alloys at inner core reuth, Germany; E-mail: Leonid . Dubrovinsky@ uni Belonoshko, A. B., N. V. Skorodumova, A. Rosen- conditions: Evidence for a partially molten inner - bayreuth . de; and Jung- Fu Lin, University of Texas Stefan Maus Geomagnetism and gren, and B. Johansson (2008), Elastic anisot- core?, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 254(1- 2), 227–232. at Austin Paleomagnetism Jerry L. Miller Oceanography Peter Olson Study of the Earth’s Deep Interior Examining the Scientific Consensus 1. When compared with pre- 1800s lev- Michael Poland Geodesy els, do you think that mean global tem- Paul R. Renne Volcanology, Geochemistry, on Climate Change peratures have generally risen, fallen, or and Petrology remained relatively constant? 2. Do you think human activity is a sig- Jeffery J. Roberts Mineral and Rock Physics Fifty- two percent of Americans think consensus on climate change through nificant contributing factor in changing most climate scientists agree that the an unbiased survey of a large and broad mean global temperatures? John B. Rundle Nonlinear Geophysics Earth has been warming in recent years, group of Earth scientists. With 3146 individuals completing the sur- Susan E. H. Sakimoto Planetary Sciences and 47% think climate scientists agree An invitation to participate in the sur- vey, the participant response rate for the (i.e., that there is a scientific consensus) vey was sent to 10,257 Earth scientists. survey was 30.7%. This is a typical response Sarah L. Shafer Paleoceanography and that human activities are a major cause The database was built from Keane and rate for Web- based surveys [Cook et al., Paleoclimatology of that warming, according to recent poll- Martinez [2007], which lists all geosci- 2000; Kaplowitz et al., 2004].