CERI Crude Oil Report

May 2017 CERI Crude Oil Report

The Price-Value Debate of the Around the same time, the Government of Alberta (GoA) Sturgeon Northwest Refinery pursued ways to diversify its economy, and given hydrocarbon extraction is a significant contributor to the Alpha Sow provincial economy, it makes sense to capture as much

value as possible in the midstream and downstream of “Price is what you pay, Value is what you get” the hydrocarbon extraction value chain. Thus, the way to Warren Buffet achieve this goal was to promote/invest into refineries,

upgraders, petrochemicals and chemicals manufacturing There is a debate whether or not the Sturgeon Refinery plants through sound policy and/or incentive programs. project1 is in the best interest of Albertans as part of The promotion of the diversification is based on the provincial efforts to diversify its economy. At the core of market-economy rules, where the role of government is the debate is a misunderstanding that tends to mix two to set the policy and let market forces play out. concepts of price and value. The opposition side talks about a project’s high cost and risk profile, while Faithful to the market economy and seeing competitive proponents speak of its importance to the provincial and forces emerging in the US and around the world, the GoA national economy. While the project was proposed a saw a royalty system (“a share of production from decade ago, this misconception is still present, even as resources the government owns on behalf of the refinery is soon to be commissioned and scheduled 2 Albertans ”) as an effective way to intervene. Apart from to deliver its first barrel of low-sulphur diesel in late that, under the Mines and Minerals Act, the government 2017. has the authority to take royalties in kind instead of cash

for any of its resources, recognizing “that to build a This article analyzes the concepts of value and price for stable and prosperous future, the province must get the new refining/upgrading capacity to be built in the best economic return on the development of its energy province. Since the Sturgeon Refinery is the only refinery resources.” The program for oil sands resources was to be built in Canada since 1984, these concepts will be coined as “Bitumen Royalty In Kind” (BRIK), and its discussed in the context of this project. objectives are to:

Background i. foster value added oil sands development and use As the oil sands industry was developing, bitumen was the royalty bitumen to stimulate economic growth by mined and upgraded into light synthetic crude oil (SCO) facilitating the development of upgrading facilities; and shipped for further refining to the US. When the in ii. enhance the transparency and liquidity in the situ Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) process bitumen market and share the gains and risks became commercial, oil producers started to dilute the between synthetic and crude bitumen. bitumen and ship it directly to the market without any transformation; as a result, the anticipated upgraded In May 2010, the GoA’s successful applicant for the bitumen fell below 50% share of total bitumen request for proposal on “…applications in using Bitumen production. Royalty-in-Kind” at a “value-added facility…” was

announced as the North West Redwater Partnership, equally owned by the North West Upgrading Inc. (NWU) CERI Commodity Report – Crude Oil Editorial Committee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan and Canadian Natural Upgrading Ltd. (a subsidiary of Murphy, Allan Fogwill Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.). About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in An agreement was signed between the GoA agent, 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission (APMC) and energy and related environmental issues. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca or contact us at [email protected]. the North West Redwater Partnership for a 30-year term

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 2 cost of the service contract. The North West Redwater Figure 1: Modification of the Northwest Refinery Partnership will construct and operate the Sturgeon Project Refinery, refine the bitumen supplied by the GoA and CNRL and market the end products. The province will retain ownership of the products (in the same proportion as bitumen feedstock) and pay the processing toll to the NWR for refining the bitumen.3 The capital cost was estimated to be $5.6 billion, and any overruns above $6.5 billion should not be part of the processing fees. The original terms also stated that construction shall begin in spring 2013.4

Project Description Today, the refinery is almost operational at $8.6 billion (2015 C$) capital cost, is 45-km northeast of Edmonton, and composed of more than 7,0005 pieces of equipment, 1,1506 modules, and as many as 20,0007 process loops. The project was reclassified from an upgrader to a refinery in 2016 to process raw bitumen to high-value Source: T. Morton, SPP Communique, Vol 7, April 2015 end-product such as low-sulphur diesel (see Table 1). The facility incorporated a carbon capture and storage One of the most striking features of the agreement is the system that will send the captured carbon to toll structure agreed by the GoA and its partners. It is a conventional oil fields for enhanced oil recovery through monthly fee, composed of the cost of debt, equity, the Alberta Trunk Line (ACTL). ACTL is a 240-km, 16” inch operating and incentive fees. The incentive fees stipulate diameter pipeline built by Enhance Energy Inc. bridging that if revenue net of feedstock and operating costs is the CO2 capture site at the Sturgeon Refinery (Alberta positive, NWR will charge the GoA 15 percent of the amount. If it is negative, a deduction is made on the next Heartland) to the central Alberta oil fields. 8 positive revenue cycle within 24 months’ maximum. The Table 1: Northwest Refinery Output direct consequence of this incentive will always be to Capacity Units Status deliver a positive margin for the NWR. Otherwise, it Startup late bears a significant risk transfer to GoA. Figure 2 Phase No 1 50,000 bpd 2017 describes how margin, tolls and incentives are related. Project Phases Phase No 2 50,000 bpd NA Phase No 3 50,000 bpd NA The incentive means that if there are losses, they are

Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel 40,250 bpd GoA losses, and if there are gains, they are shared gains, Low sulphur Vacuum gasoil 8790 bpd an arrangement viewed by many as a serious “Achilles Phase No 1 Output Mixed of LPGs 3,363 bpd heel” for the GoA. Diluent Mixed 28266 bpd Carbon Capture 3,500 Ton/day Sulphur 431 Ton/day Figure 2: Average Sturgeon Refinery Cost of Service Toll Source: Conference Board Canada (2015 C$ per bbl)

Project Timeline and Financing Arrangement The project started off with low capital cost and low risk for both parties, but as time went on and the economic conditions started to deteriorate, changes were made to the parties’ agreements (see Figure 1). The GoA engagement evolved from supplying the bitumen feedstock to the revenue guarantee (30-year toll fees) and then lending $300 million to the project. Source: Conference Board of Canada

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil Page 3

Price Versus Value light-heavy crude differential risk as any other refinery By looking at the initial quote closer: “Price is what you shareholder. The narrower the spread, the higher the pay, Value is what you get,” price is a paid amount in risk for the province to lose money by paying toll fees order to get goods or services. On the other hand, value and selling the product. implies a utility or a worth of a good or service for an individual or entities. In the Oil Sands Dialogue11 initiated by IHS CERA on June 7, 2012, participants were asked the following question In this example, the province is willing to pursue efforts “Upgrading or Refining in Alberta (or Not).” The draft to process bitumen to capture more value before report was completed and published in March 2013. It sending it to the market as a means of an attractive concluded that there is no economic case for the economic policy. Moreover, prices are set by the market greenfield upgrading units in Alberta due to the narrow conditions; value is often determined subjectively. There spreads between light and heavy crudes and prohibitive is a case to be made that no private investor was willing construction costs. Furthermore, constrained labor to build a new refinery or an upgrader, in fact, many market conditions (at that time), meant that there is upgrader projects were canceled. Yet, the price tag of higher economic value for Alberta to continue to export “adding value to bitumen” before selling it seems to be raw bitumen than build new refineries or upgraders. measured in the economic impacts of the project rather Alternatively, the impact on the labor market might not than through a conventional project finance analysis stand true anymore because of the 2014 oil price (IRR). downturn, which caused many firms to lay people off. The unemployment rate in Alberta rose from 4.7 percent In the absence of a liquid market where price is set by an in January 2014 and peaked at 9% in November 2016. equilibrium supply/demand, the price for the current project is set by an agreement between GoA and the The report went on to say that efforts should focus on NWU through a negotiation based on the assumptions of modifying existing upgraders or refineries to process oil a forecast. However, the change in the future market sands, and only “under the right conditions the conditions coupled with the technical configuration of economics of new refinery projects in Alberta and British the process and the strong will of the province to capture Columbia could work.” The “right conditions” are project more value along the bitumen value chain within its -specific economics, type of output, yield, and absence of jurisdiction might invite the Redwater Partnership to oversupply of refined products and distribution within leverage on the situation. the province. The IHS CERA report indicates that the window of opportunity is uncertain, only a few projects For some opponents of hydrocarbon based will reach 10% internal rate of return. diversification, refining or upgrading within the province is an unprofitable business. For some, the Sturgeon On the other hand, prices can increase or decrease; for Refinery project highlights the risk that is carried by the those who are in favour of the project, value remains taxpayers through the tolling agreement. Ted Morton, a unchanged – they are still faithful to “refine it where you former Alberta Minister under the Government of Ed mine it.” Add to that constrained pipelines, and lack of Stelmach and Alison Redford, developed a case that the Canadian refiners that can process the- non upgraded GoA “is taking equity type risk without the equivalent bitumen, it is easy to advocate for projects, such as the return.”9 The government guarantees the debt (80% of Sturgeon Refinery. the project cost) even though the justice department insisted that “it is not a loan guarantee and the NWU The refinery output, low-sulphur diesel, was at the time agreement is not prohibited by Section 72 of the 1996 of the project conception, forecast to be in short supply. Business Financial Assistance Limitations Statute.”10 Currently, the Alberta market is oversupplied with diesel. Would the Sturgeon Refinery’s output have to be It is worthwhile to mention that the contract between exported to other markets? Are those markets the GoA and the Partnership has a financing structure identified? Exports to the US and Asia are possible, but where the province owns (hence has to sell) refined Asia can build cheaper12 refineries to accommodate their product output while being fully exposed to crack spread specific needs for products, and the US now exports their risk (i.e., spread between crude and refined product) and crude as well as Refined Petroleum Products.

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil Page 4

The NEB 201613 Energy Future report suggested that Endnotes 1 Canada’s freight industry is growing, and it is a large user The North West Redwater Partnership is building the Sturgeon of diesel, but will it absorb the incremental diesel Refinery. North West Refining is a 50 percent owner in the supply? Meanwhile, actual refineries operating in North West Redwater Partnership. Canadian Natural Upgrading Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Canadian Natural Western Canada might extend their capacities by Resources Limited, also owns 50 percent of the Partnership. increasing their utilization rates (less than 90% in 2016) 2Standing Committee on Alberta’s Economic Future May 2013 and balance local supply and demand. 3Ted Morton. “The Northwest Sturgeon Upgrader: Good Money After Bad?”. The School of Public Policy SPP Communique, Vol. On the other hand, the NWR will generate significant 7, Issue 3. April 2015. economic impacts, according to a Conference Board 4Standing Committee on Alberta’s Economic Future May 2013 report.14 5http://www.jwnenergy.com/article/2017/4/15-photos- sturgeon-refinery-early-stages-start-begin/ 6  ibid $7.9 billion in total value-added impacts across the 7 Canadian economy; ibid 8The Conference Board of Canada. “Is there Value in Adding  75,774 person-years of total employment impacts; Value?” An Assessment of the Sturgeon Refinery-Report.  $1.9 billion in various forms of federal and provincial December 2016. government revenues (excluding natural resource 9Ted Morton. “The Northwest Sturgeon Upgrader: Good Money extraction rent payments or royalties); After Bad?”. The School of Public Policy SPP Communique, Vol.  Capture approximately 1.2 million tonnes of pure 7, Issue 3. April 2015. CO2 per year; 10ibid.  The CO2 captured will be injected in the mature oil 11www.ihs.com/oilsandsdialogue 12 field and results in 100 million barrels of incremental IHS CERA. “Extracting Economic Value from the Canadian Oil Sands Upgrading and Refining in Alberta (or Not)?” 2013. oil production and the sequestration of 8.9 million 13 tons (Mt) of CO2. https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/ftr/2016/index- eng.html

14Conference Board of Canada. “Is there Value in Adding Despite the positive attributes of the carbon capture part Value?” 2016. of the project, the revenue streams from the sales of 15ibid. 15 CO2 is not part of shared revenue with the GoA. The amount is estimated to be $60 million/year – an Bibliography equivalent avoided carbon tax that will not fall into the https://www.alberta.ca/energy-diversification-advisory- GoA account. The exclusion of the CO produced in the committee.aspx 2 http://www.enhanceenergy.com/ shared revenue might be seen as an extension of the http://www.enhanceenergy.com/pdf/News/releases/ misalignment between risk and reward between parties ACTLBrochure2017_web.pdf involved in the contract. http://www.enhanceenergy.com/pdf/News/releases/ EOR_handout_v6.pdf http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/ Nonetheless, the NWU can be viewed as a utility – http://keydifferences.com/difference-between-price-cost-and- should it be financed and operated as one? Was that the value.html goal of the diversification efforts on behalf of the GoA? IHS CERA. Extracting Economic Value from the Canadian Oil Sands Upgrading and Refining in Alberta (or Not)? www.ihs.com/ The GoA does not seem to have any control on capital oilsandsdialogue. The Conference Board of Canada. Is there Value in Adding Value? An cost, processing or toll fees but at the same time carries Assessment of the Sturgeon Refinery Report December 2016. the market risk. The accumulation of revenue Standing Committee on Alberta’s Economic Future. Review of the uncertainties associated with this type of project might BRIK 28th Legislature First Session May 2013. not fulfill the 2007 royalty review goals. Despite said Government of Alberta. 2014-2015 Energy Annual Report Government of Alberta. Bitumen refinery agreement promotes value- significant value that the project bears, the price might added development, Feb. 2011. not be “right.” Only the construction of the next phases Naomi Christensen. Refine where you Mine Master of Public Policy, (if any) of the project will tell us. August 14, 2014. Canadian Fuels Association. The Economics of Petroleum Refining, Understanding the business of processing crude oil into fuels and other value-added products. December 2013. Morton T. The Northwest Sturgeon Upgrader: Good Money After Bad? SPP Communique, Vol. 7, April 2015.

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil Page 5

May-17 4 EdmontonLight Jun08, 2017 WTI May-16 3 Differential May08, 2017 4 contract months 4contract 2 Edmonton Edmonton Light - Price Differentials (US$/bbl) Differentials Price May-15 Apr07, 2017

WTI WTI

NYMEX WTI Crude Forward Curve

May-14 0 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 US$/bbl 120 110 100

US$/bbl

SOURCE:EIA. SOURCE:EIA, CERI. N 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 May-17 US$/bbl 41.41 38.08 50.29 Jun-17 Cdn. Heavy* Cdn. WCS May-17 48.35 48.83 48.28 Cdn.Light* Apr-17 WTI Mar-17 Brent 52.04 53.59 45.93 May-16 Feb-17 Jan-17 Differential WTI 50.32 51.62 44.24 Brent Dec-16 - (US$/bbl) Nov-16 Brent-WTI Differential Brent-WTI WTI Brent Price DifferentialsPrice Price DifferentialsPrice Hardisty Hardisty Heavy Edmonton Edmonton Light WTI WTI - -

Oct-16

Price Differentials (US$/bbl) DifferentialsPrice May-15 Spot Spot Crude Prices Sep-16 WTI WTI WTI WTI Canadian Canadian Heavy Benchmark - Spot Prices Spot Year-to-Date Quarter-to-Date 2017 19, June Aug-16

Jul-16

WTI WTI Jun-16 May-14 0 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 May-16 -10 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 120 110 100 US$/bbl

US$/bbl

SOURCE:EIA. SOURCE:NRCan, EIA, Baytex. W Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 6 May-17 Other Propane May-16 Residual

Y change

- on - Distillate May May 2017Y - JetFuel May-15 May May 2016 US Products US Products Demand CDN/US$ Exchange CDN/US$ Exchange Rate

Gasoline

Total May-14 1.50 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 5% 0% % -5% 10% CDN/US$

-10% -15% -20%

SOURCE:NRCan. SOURCE:EIA Petroleum Weekly Status Report. U 53.5% 53.0% 52.5% 52.0% 51.5% 51.0% 50.5% Jun-17 1.5678 1.5986 1.4480 Heating Oil Heating 4Q18 May-17 Apr-17 Heating Oil 3Q18 1.5933 1.5798 1.5000 Mar-17 Unleaded Gasoline Unleaded 2Q18 Feb-17 Jan-17 non-OECDDemand share 1Q18 RBOBGasoline Dec-16 4Q17 NYMEX Prices NYMEX Year-to-Date Quarter-to-Date 2017 13, June Nov-16 Oct-16 Total Non-OECD

3Q17

Sep-16 Global Oil Demand Global Oil Demand 2Q17

Aug-16

Total OECD NYMEX Petroleum Products Jul-16 1Q17 Jun-16 Oil Demand in Selected Countries Selectedin Demand Oil 4Q16 May-16 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0 US$/gal 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 MMbpd

110 100

SOURCE:EIA, CERI. SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report. Report. SOURCE:Market Oil IEA

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil Page 7

Other 1Q18 Apr-17 NGLs 4Q17 OECD Pacific Apr-16 Other Lower48 3Q17 OECD Europe by region by by region by

Federal GOM

Apr-15 Texas 2Q17 US Oil Production OECD North America OECD OECD Commercial Stocks California Apr-14 1Q17 Alaska 0 0 500 Mbpd Mbpd 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000

16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000

SOURCE:IEA Oil Market Report. SOURCE:IEA Oil Market Report.

57.0%

57.5%

58.0%

58.5%

59.0%

59.5%

60.0% 60.5%

1Q18

4Q18 3Q18 Synthetic

4Q17 2Q18

NGLs

non-OPECShare of Global Supply 1Q18 Other 3Q17

4Q17

by product by

OPECSupply

3Q17 AB Bitumen

2Q17

Global Oil Supply Global Oil Supply 2Q17 Canadian Canadian Oil Production

AB L/M/H

1Q17 non-OPECSupply

1Q17 4Q16 0 Mbpd

6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000

100

120

MMbpd

SOURCE:IEA Oil Market Report,CERI. SOURCE:IEA Oil Market Report. S Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 8 1Q17 4Q16

3Q16

2Q16 Canadian Stocks on Land on Stocks Canadian 1Q16 185 180 175 170 MMb

187.5 182.5 177.5 172.5 SOURCE:IEA Oil Market Report. Total Products M Change M

on - Distillate May 26, 2017 M 201726, May - Gasoline April 28 April US Commercial Stocks Crude 5.0 0.0 -5.0 15.0 10.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0

MMb SOURCE:EIA Petroleum Weekly Status Report.

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil Page 9

World Supply and Demand Balance (MMbpd)

2015 2016 2017 2018 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18

World Demand 95.0 96.6 97.8 99.3 95.5 95.9 97.1 97.6 96.5 97.1 98.6 99.2 98.2 98.5 99.9 100.5 OECD 46.4 46.8 46.9 46.9 46.7 46.0 47.3 47.4 46.8 46.2 47.3 47.4 46.8 46.2 47.3 47.4 non-OECD 48.6 49.7 50.9 52.3 48.8 49.9 49.8 50.3 49.6 50.9 51.3 51.8 51.3 52.3 52.6 53.1

World Supply 96.6 96.9 97.4 99.4 96.6 95.9 96.9 98.2 96.6 96.7 98.0 98.2 98.4 99.2 99.9 100.1 Non-OPEC 58.4 57.6 58.3 59.7 57.9 56.9 57.4 58.2 58.0 57.8 58.5 58.7 58.9 59.4 60.2 60.4 OPEC NGLs 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.9 6.9 OPEC Crude 27.7 28.2 27.8 -4.5 32.1 32.4 32.8 33.3 31.9 32.1 32.6 32.6 32.6 32.8 32.8 32.8

Supply - Demand1 1.6 0.3 -0.4 0.1 1.1 0.0 -0.2 0.6 0.2

OECD Stocks (MMbbls) 3015 3046 3052 3060 2985 3026 3009 2982 2937 2947 2977 2979 Days Cover 65 66 65 65 64 66 64 63 63 64 63 63

OPEC Crude Oil Production (MMbpd)

Sustainable Production Spare Capacity vs Production Capacity Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Saudi Arabia 12.20 9.93 9.96 9.92 2.27 2.24 2.28 Iran 3.75 3.79 3.75 3.78 -0.04 0.00 -0.03 UAE 3.14 2.91 2.93 2.92 0.23 0.21 0.22 Kuwait 2.93 2.70 2.71 2.72 0.23 0.22 0.21 Qatar 0.67 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.06 0.05 0.04 Angola 1.78 1.64 1.66 1.63 0.14 0.12 0.15 Nigeria 1.70 1.30 1.38 1.50 0.40 0.32 0.20 Libya 0.65 0.61 0.55 0.74 0.04 0.10 -0.09 Algeria 1.13 1.05 1.06 1.06 0.08 0.07 0.07 Ecuador 0.56 0.52 0.53 0.53 0.04 0.03 0.03 Venezuela 2.20 2.03 2.02 2.00 0.17 0.18 0.20 Gabon 0.23 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.03 0.03 0.03 OPEC. Excl. Iraq 30.94 27.29 27.37 27.63 3.65 3.57 3.31 Iraq1 4.66 4.43 4.42 4.45 0.23 0.24 0.21 Total OPEC 35.60 31.72 31.79 32.08 3.88 3.81 3.52

WTI Price Projections ($US/barrel)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 High Price Case 53.90 55.55 53.90 53.90 53.90 55.00 56.10

Reference Case 48.71 43.26 49.68 50.50 45.52 44.88 49.23 51.70 49.00 49.00 49.00 50.00 51.00

Low Price Case 41.65 42.93 41.65 41.65 41.65 42.50 43.35

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 10

Data Appendix

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil Page 11

A1: Historic Light Sweet Crude Futures Prices ($US per barrel)

NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread

Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) 2014 96.53 96.37 96.73 87.56 0.54 2015 49.68 49.80 51.41 53.75 -0.78 2016 42.28 42.15 42.01 44.80 -0.98 2Q 2016 43.94 43.15 40.39 43.31 -1.24 3Q 2016 46.95 47.20 46.46 48.68 -0.65 4Q 2016 47.30 47.03 46.91 49.12 -0.58 1Q 2017 52.90 52.44 52.19 54.65 -0.80 2Q 2017 49.45 49.76 50.08 51.66 -0.44 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 12.5% 15.3% 24.0% 19.3% Jun-16 47.75 48.03 45.43 47.45 -0.72 Jul-16 48.85 48.73 49.03 50.88 -0.55 Aug-16 44.94 44.94 46.78 49.09 -0.71 Sep-16 47.05 47.93 43.57 46.05 -0.70 Oct-16 43.44 43.26 45.39 47.67 -0.62 Nov-16 50.43 50.77 48.64 50.65 -0.49 Dec-16 48.03 47.07 46.71 49.03 -0.63 Jan-17 52.23 52.08 50.63 53.49 -0.99 Feb-17 52.42 51.62 52.75 55.39 -0.87 Mar-17 54.06 53.61 53.18 55.08 -0.55 Apr-17 47.34 48.11 51.12 52.81 -0.50 May-17 50.27 51.04 50.72 52.33 -0.46 Jun-17 50.73 50.14 48.40 49.84 -0.35 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.2% 4.4% 6.5% 5.0%

A2: Historic Crude Product Futures Prices (¢US per gallon)

NYMEX Unleaded Gasoline NYMEX Heating Oil Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread

Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) 2014 270.6 272.8 271.8 260.8 1.7 285.9 287.7 286.4 290.2 1.4 2015 168.8 166.0 166.4 157.8 0.5 174.8 171.9 173.2 179.6 0.5 2016 138.4 138.7 136.9 133.2 -1.9 133.8 133.8 132.1 141.7 -1.6 2Q 2016 154.5 155.4 148.9 142.9 -2.1 135.4 135.1 128.8 137.4 -1.0 3Q 2016 141.1 142.3 145.0 130.1 2.1 139.0 141.1 143.3 153.3 -1.8 4Q 2016 143.8 144.7 142.1 133.9 1.6 153.2 152.0 148.9 158.2 -1.5 1Q 2017 157.3 157.0 155.9 168.2 -8.6 164.6 165.0 164.9 172.9 -1.4 2Q 2017 162.0 162.6 163.0 155.5 -0.5 153.1 153.9 154.7 162.1 -0.6 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.8% 4.6% 9.5% 8.8% 13.1% 13.9% 20.1% 18.0% Jun-16 161.5 162.2 158.1 149.4 -0.7 149.8 149.8 142.1 150.1 -0.7 Jul-16 150.1 151.2 155.4 140.3 -0.9 148.5 149.7 150.1 158.6 -0.9 Aug-16 132.1 131.6 138.0 124.5 -0.6 127.6 128.0 138.5 149.8 -2.5 Sep-16 141.2 144.2 141.6 125.6 7.9 141.0 145.6 141.5 151.4 -1.9 Oct-16 148.7 147.7 139.2 127.5 2.7 152.8 151.0 143.3 152.6 -1.4 Nov-16 145.0 146.9 149.0 141.6 1.5 149.6 153.6 156.6 166.2 -1.6 Dec-16 137.7 139.5 138.2 132.7 0.7 157.1 151.6 146.9 155.7 -1.5 Jan-17 168.2 167.0 156.9 166.2 -1.2 170.4 170.2 166.2 174.2 -1.7 Feb-17 152.6 152.0 157.5 169.9 -2.5 161.2 161.3 164.4 172.4 -1.5 Mar-17 151.2 152.0 153.4 168.5 -22.0 162.1 163.4 164.1 171.9 -1.0 Apr-17 170.0 168.4 162.9 157.3 -1.6 157.4 155.8 153.6 161.1 -0.7 May-17 154.8 156.3 168.1 160.0 -0.1 150.4 151.6 159.0 166.4 -0.7 Jun-17 161.2 163.1 158.1 149.2 0.3 151.5 154.2 151.4 158.8 -0.6 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.2% 0.6% 0.0% -0.1% 1.1% 3.0% 6.6% 5.8%

Notes (Tables A1 and A2): Prices are listed by contract month. Close: final contract close on the last day of trading. Last 3 Day Average Close: simple average contract close on last three days of trading. Average When Near Month: simple average closing price on trading days when contract was near month. 12-Month Strip Average: simple average of daily near 12-month contract closing prices in a given contract month. Spread: difference between one-month and two-month forward prices in a given period. Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 12 A3: World Crude Oil Contract Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)

Saudi U.A.E. Oman U.K. Norway Russia Venez. Kuwait Ecuador Mexico Nigeria Indon.

Arab Lgt Dubai Oman Brent Ekofisk Urals1 T.J. Light Blend Oriente Isthmus Bonny Lgt Minas 2014 97.07 96.61 96.94 99.00 99.78 98.01 86.87 95.21 87.25 93.58 100.77 98.63 2015 49.87 50.96 51.24 52.44 53.20 51.94 41.17 48.15 44.97 51.14 52.99 49.24 2016 40.89 41.32 41.89 43.69 43.97 42.09 33.96 39.22 38.36 42.31 43.95 41.05 1Q 2016 29.95 30.47 31.44 33.91 34.39 32.30 22.67 27.89 26.73 31.39 33.72 31.64 2Q 2016 42.66 43.18 43.47 45.53 46.13 43.86 33.78 40.81 40.34 43.47 45.61 46.24 3Q 2016 43.10 43.30 43.83 45.85 45.96 44.10 36.85 41.49 40.93 44.61 46.47 41.13 4Q 2016 47.83 48.33 48.81 49.48 49.41 48.12 42.53 46.70 45.45 49.79 49.98 45.20 1Q 2017 52.20 53.11 53.61 53.75 53.74 52.34 45.99 51.40 48.52 54.44 54.04 50.06 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 74.3% 74.3% 70.5% 58.5% 56.3% 62.1% 102.9% 84.3% 81.5% 73.5% 60.3% 58.2% May-16 43.48 44.29 44.37 46.83 47.70 45.08 34.28 41.60 41.96 44.76 46.85 48.64 Jun-16 46.28 46.25 46.61 48.28 48.54 46.60 38.22 44.50 44.03 47.51 48.48 51.56 Jul-16 43.14 42.64 43.45 45.00 44.99 43.76 36.71 41.37 40.72 45.07 45.30 41.84 Aug-16 43.47 43.58 44.02 45.85 45.79 44.06 36.46 41.88 40.84 44.22 46.35 41.26 Sep-16 42.70 43.67 44.01 46.69 47.10 44.48 37.38 41.22 41.22 44.55 47.77 40.28 Oct-16 48.26 48.94 49.18 49.74 49.58 48.24 42.36 47.04 45.98 49.91 50.83 45.20 Nov-16 43.32 43.98 44.54 45.13 44.97 43.83 39.37 42.14 41.69 45.64 45.20 40.72 Dec-16 51.92 52.08 52.72 53.57 53.67 52.28 45.86 50.93 48.67 53.81 53.91 49.68 Jan-17 52.29 53.71 54.01 54.58 54.62 53.42 46.81 51.48 48.64 54.98 54.98 50.63 Feb-17 53.63 54.41 55.12 55.06 55.10 53.67 47.03 52.85 50.08 56.09 55.24 51.19 Mar-17 50.68 51.21 51.71 51.60 51.50 49.94 44.14 49.87 46.83 52.26 51.91 48.35 Apr-17 51.64 52.31 52.82 52.59 52.49 51.55 46.15 50.81 48.70 53.81 53.02 47.95 May-17 49.30 50.97 50.57 50.45 50.35 49.04 45.16 48.65 46.91 51.85 50.77 45.96 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 13.4% 15.1% 14.0% 7.7% 5.6% 8.8% 31.7% 16.9% 11.8% 15.8% 8.4% -5.5%

Notes: 1. Urals is Delivered price at Mediterranean. Contract prices are based on prices at the end of each month. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

A4: North American Posted Crude Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)

United States Canada Light vs. Heavy Okla. Kans. Mich. Wyo. CDN CDN ANS1 Lost Hills Kern R. WTI WTS GCS Sw. Sw. So. Sw. Sweet2 Heavy3 2014 94.79 94.13 87.39 88.44 83.44 82.19 88.44 85.77 80.44 83.52 82.59 73.85 2015 51.64 50.91 42.28 45.63 40.63 39.38 45.63 44.40 37.63 42.34 44.83 35.71 2016 33.46 43.80 35.82 41.08 36.08 34.83 41.08 40.08 33.08 40.50 39.44 28.85 1Q 2016 34.14 33.54 27.08 31.67 26.67 25.42 31.67 30.75 23.67 30.20 28.28 18.11 2Q 2016 30.42 45.46 38.30 44.25 39.25 38.00 44.25 43.17 36.25 43.88 42.69 32.65 3Q 2016 30.15 46.40 36.65 42.33 37.33 36.08 42.33 41.33 34.33 42.08 41.64 30.77 4Q 2016 39.14 49.81 41.23 46.08 41.08 39.83 46.08 45.08 38.08 45.83 45.53 34.29 1Q 2017 43.48 53.40 45.50 48.67 43.67 42.42 48.67 47.67 40.67 48.44 48.95 38.22 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 27.3% 59.2% 68.0% 53.7% 63.8% 66.9% 53.7% 55.0% 71.8% 60.4% 73.1% 111.0% May-16 30.62 46.83 40.25 45.75 40.75 39.50 45.75 44.75 37.75 45.58 44.58 34.63 Jun-16 24.29 44.89 37.00 44.50 39.50 38.25 44.50 43.25 36.50 43.89 46.61 36.13 Jul-16 22.77 40.65 32.30 38.00 33.00 31.75 38.00 37.00 30.00 37.85 41.01 30.55 Aug-16 30.62 49.35 38.60 44.00 39.00 37.75 44.00 43.25 36.00 43.89 41.35 30.34 Sep-16 37.05 49.20 39.05 45.00 40.00 38.75 45.00 43.75 37.00 44.49 42.57 31.41 Oct-16 36.98 48.91 39.75 45.50 40.50 39.25 45.50 44.25 37.50 44.95 46.81 35.89 Nov-16 36.86 46.54 38.60 43.50 38.50 37.25 43.50 42.50 35.50 43.33 41.66 30.54 Dec-16 43.57 53.98 45.35 49.25 44.25 43.00 49.25 48.50 41.25 49.20 48.14 36.46 Jan-17 38.14 53.59 45.45 49.00 44.00 42.75 49.00 48.25 41.00 48.88 49.53 38.81 Feb-17 46.15 54.54 46.70 50.00 45.00 43.75 50.00 48.75 42.00 49.58 50.33 39.53 Mar-17 46.15 52.06 44.35 47.00 42.00 40.75 47.00 46.00 39.00 46.85 47.03 36.34 Apr-17 45.79 49.79 43.15 45.75 40.75 39.50 45.75 44.75 37.75 45.58 46.61 40.81 May-17 43.22 51.01 43.80 46.25 41.25 40.00 46.25 45.25 38.25 46.05 48.43 51.35 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 41.1% 8.9% 8.8% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.0% 8.6% 48.3%

Notes: 1. ANS is Delivered price on US West Coast. 2. As of August 2016, Edmonton Light Sweet is referred to as Canadian Sweet. 3. As of August 2016, Western Canadian Select is referred to as Canadian Heavy. Posted prices are based on price at the end of each month. Sources: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil Page 13

A5: Crude Oil Quality Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel) Light vs. Heavy Sweet vs. Sour CDN CDN Arab Lt Arab Hv Diff. Isthmus Maya Diff. Sweet1 Heavy2 Diff. GCS WTS Diff. 2014 97.07 93.57 3.50 93.58 86.53 7.04 82.59 73.85 8.74 82.19 83.44 -1.25 2015 49.87 47.02 2.85 51.14 44.77 6.37 44.83 35.71 9.13 39.38 40.63 -1.25 2016 40.89 38.36 2.52 42.31 36.98 5.34 39.44 28.85 10.59 34.83 36.08 -1.25 1Q 2016 29.95 27.14 2.82 31.39 26.77 4.62 28.28 18.11 10.17 25.42 26.67 -1.25 2Q 2016 42.66 40.10 2.56 43.47 38.13 5.34 42.69 32.65 10.04 38.00 39.25 -1.25 3Q 2016 43.10 40.58 2.52 44.61 39.64 4.97 41.64 30.77 10.88 36.08 37.33 -1.25 4Q 2016 47.83 45.64 2.19 49.79 43.36 6.43 45.53 34.29 11.24 39.83 41.08 -1.25 1Q 2017 52.20 50.46 1.74 54.44 45.50 8.95 48.95 38.22 10.74 42.42 43.67 -1.25 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 74.3% 86.0% 73.5% 70.0% 73.1% 111.0% 66.9% 63.8% May-16 43.48 40.69 2.79 44.76 39.77 4.99 44.58 34.63 9.95 39.50 40.75 -1.25 Jun-16 46.28 43.68 2.60 47.51 42.81 4.70 46.61 36.13 10.48 38.25 39.50 -1.25 Jul-16 43.14 40.40 2.74 45.07 40.49 4.58 41.01 30.55 10.47 31.75 33.00 -1.25 Aug-16 43.47 41.00 2.47 44.22 39.39 4.83 41.35 30.34 11.01 37.75 39.00 -1.25 Sep-16 42.70 40.34 2.36 44.55 39.05 5.50 42.57 31.41 11.16 38.75 40.00 -1.25 Oct-16 48.26 46.26 2.00 49.91 43.76 6.15 46.81 35.89 10.92 39.25 40.50 -1.25 Nov-16 43.32 40.96 2.36 45.64 40.32 5.32 41.66 30.54 11.13 37.25 38.50 -1.25 Dec-16 51.92 49.70 2.22 53.81 45.99 7.82 48.14 36.46 11.68 43.00 44.25 -1.25 Jan-17 52.29 50.56 1.73 54.98 46.58 8.40 49.53 38.81 10.73 42.75 44.00 -1.25 Feb-17 53.63 51.97 1.66 56.09 46.58 9.51 50.33 39.53 10.79 43.75 45.00 -1.25 Mar-17 50.68 48.86 1.82 52.26 43.33 8.93 47.03 36.34 10.69 40.75 42.00 -1.25 Apr-17 51.64 49.71 1.93 53.81 45.20 8.61 46.61 40.81 5.80 39.50 40.75 -1.25 May-17 49.30 47.59 1.71 51.85 43.41 8.44 48.43 51.35 -2.92 40.00 41.25 -1.25 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 13.4% 17.0% 15.8% 9.2% 8.6% 48.3% 1.3% 1.2% Notes: 1. As of August 2016, Edmonton Light Sweet is referred to as Canadian Sweet. 2. As of August 2016, Western Canadian Select is referred to as Canadian Heavy. Sources: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.

A6: Crude Oil Spot Prices and Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)

Spot Prices Differentials WTI Brent Dubai Urals Basket1 WTI-Brent WTI-Dubai WTI-Urals WTI-Basket

2014 93.28 98.94 96.52 97.97 96.19 -2.41 0.01 -1.44 0.34 2015 48.71 52.37 50.84 51.50 49.52 -2.69 -1.16 -1.82 0.16 2016 43.33 43.72 41.46 42.11 40.68 -1.44 0.82 0.17 1.59 1Q 2016 33.41 33.95 30.59 32.34 29.96 9.99 13.35 11.60 13.99 2Q 2016 45.52 45.54 43.23 43.86 42.30 1.41 3.72 3.09 4.64 3Q 2016 44.88 45.80 43.28 44.05 42.89 1.50 4.02 3.25 4.41 4Q 2016 49.23 49.35 48.27 47.99 47.59 3.55 4.63 4.91 5.32 1Q 2017 51.70 53.66 53.01 52.25 52.03 -4.21 -3.56 -2.80 -2.58 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 54.7% 58.1% 73.3% 61.6% 73.7% May-16 46.72 46.79 44.30 45.01 43.21 0.96 3.45 2.74 4.54 Jun-16 48.74 48.28 46.25 46.60 45.84 0.57 2.60 2.25 3.01 Jul-16 44.69 45.00 42.54 43.76 42.68 -0.06 2.40 1.18 2.26 Aug-16 44.75 45.68 43.67 43.90 43.10 1.37 3.38 3.15 3.95 Sep-16 45.20 46.69 43.58 44.48 42.89 -3.25 -0.14 -1.04 0.55 Oct-16 49.89 49.74 48.94 48.24 47.87 0.69 1.49 2.19 2.56 Nov-16 45.62 45.13 43.98 43.83 43.22 2.90 4.05 4.20 4.81 Dec-16 52.02 53.57 52.08 52.29 51.67 -1.34 0.15 -0.06 0.56 Jan-17 52.51 54.58 53.68 53.42 52.40 -2.16 -1.26 -1.00 0.02 Feb-17 53.40 55.06 54.41 53.67 53.37 -1.00 -0.35 0.39 0.69 Mar-17 49.58 51.60 51.21 49.94 50.32 -4.26 -3.87 -2.60 -2.98 Apr-17 51.06 52.46 52.31 51.41 51.37 -2.19 -2.04 -1.14 -1.10 May-17 48.50 50.42 50.58 49.01 49.20 0.31 0.15 1.72 1.53 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.8% 7.8% 14.2% 8.9% 13.9%

Notes: 1. OPEC-Reference Basket is average price of seven crude streams: Algeria Saharan Blend, Dubai Fateh, Indonesia Minas, Mexico Isthmus, Nigeria Bonny Light, Saudi Arabia Light and Venezuela Tia Juana Light. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 14 A7: World Petroleum Product Spot Prices ($US per barrel)

US Gulf Coast, Pipeline Rotterdam, Barges Singapore, Cargoes Gasoline1 No. 6 3%2 Jet/Ker. Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3 Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3

2014 106.68 82.82 113.30 108.16 112.63 81.04 110.75 112.53 87.22 2015 66.94 40.73 63.86 67.02 65.48 37.85 69.09 64.47 44.55 2016 56.84 32.12 52.43 54.02 52.37 30.62 56.20 52.24 35.63 1Q 2016 44.62 21.14 41.66 43.78 40.63 18.71 49.31 40.27 24.87 2Q 2016 61.70 31.03 53.43 58.37 54.51 29.31 57.58 53.76 33.89 3Q 2016 59.62 34.88 54.44 54.76 54.10 34.39 54.72 54.11 37.88 4Q 2016 60.99 41.20 59.92 58.98 60.01 39.77 62.83 60.27 45.42 1Q 2017 65.10 44.58 63.18 63.48 63.31 43.24 67.71 64.85 49.04 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 45.9% 110.9% 51.7% 45.0% 55.8% 131.1% 37.3% 61.0% 97.2% May-16 62.10 31.85 54.36 58.93 55.91 30.18 59.14 54.86 34.58 Jun-16 64.11 35.11 58.16 60.60 58.69 33.23 59.05 58.14 37.27 Jul-16 58.66 33.87 52.82 52.73 53.17 33.19 51.87 54.27 37.06 Aug-16 61.25 34.40 54.80 54.45 53.88 33.88 54.18 53.47 37.21 Sep-16 58.73 36.36 55.58 57.00 55.21 36.04 58.00 54.62 39.35 Oct-16 62.21 40.08 60.68 60.51 60.91 39.26 62.99 61.23 43.76 Nov-16 54.80 38.15 56.11 55.00 55.98 36.80 58.99 56.84 42.36 Dec-16 65.66 45.22 62.80 61.75 63.51 43.58 66.68 62.91 50.27 Jan-17 66.52 45.76 63.70 64.20 63.94 44.35 69.47 65.15 51.28 Feb-17 65.04 45.94 65.58 66.04 65.20 44.45 69.90 66.76 49.87 Mar-17 63.91 42.42 60.75 60.60 61.09 41.16 64.28 62.94 46.38 Apr-17 69.66 43.68 63.27 65.91 62.88 42.99 67.66 64.68 48.11 May-17 66.12 42.98 59.04 62.86 59.80 41.88 64.40 61.19 46.76 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.5% 34.9% 8.6% 6.7% 7.0% 38.8% 8.9% 11.5% 35.2% Notes: 1. Regular unleaded gasoline. 2. Waterborne 3. High Sulfur (3.5-4.0%) Residual Fuel Oil. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

A8: Product Spot Prices in Selected American Cities (¢US per gallon)

NY Harbor US Gulf Los Angeles

Gasoline1 No. 2 H.O. Distill. Gasoline1 Jet Fuel Distill. Gasoline1 Distill. 2014 261.23 269.64 280.48 248.81 269.65 271.08 266.81 278.58 2015 161.18 154.68 166.33 155.30 152.55 157.92 194.58 166.03 2016 139.08 128.35 135.14 133.18 124.92 131.75 145.38 138.67 1Q 2016 112.67 101.43 106.83 105.70 99.07 102.80 127.27 108.63 2Q 2016 150.67 132.00 138.70 141.93 127.60 134.57 157.43 143.37 3Q 2016 139.03 132.27 139.57 139.33 129.53 137.40 145.07 141.83 4Q 2016 153.93 147.70 155.47 145.73 143.47 152.23 151.77 160.83 1Q 2017 155.30 153.50 159.17 155.30 150.20 156.77 169.60 163.47 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 37.8% 51.3% 49.0% 46.9% 51.6% 52.5% 33.3% 50.5% May-16 156.60 135.60 142.30 143.40 129.90 137.80 153.00 145.80 Jun-16 150.60 141.60 149.10 148.70 138.20 146.00 164.20 154.70 Jul-16 135.40 129.20 137.00 135.80 127.20 134.30 141.20 140.00 Aug-16 137.90 132.50 139.90 142.90 129.50 137.90 138.80 140.00 Sep-16 143.80 135.10 141.80 139.30 131.90 140.00 155.20 145.50 Oct-16 152.20 148.80 155.90 148.90 145.70 154.40 161.90 163.00 Nov-16 146.20 139.00 146.30 131.70 135.60 142.70 143.40 153.90 Dec-16 163.40 155.30 164.20 156.60 149.10 159.60 150.00 165.60 Jan-17 162.00 155.10 162.30 159.30 151.40 159.30 161.20 167.10 Feb-17 154.70 156.20 162.40 154.30 154.70 160.80 175.60 167.00 Mar-17 149.20 149.20 152.80 152.30 144.50 150.20 172.00 156.30 Apr-17 161.10 152.30 158.60 162.10 151.00 155.80 177.70 163.90 May-17 154.00 145.40 151.40 151.90 141.20 148.20 174.60 154.70 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.7% 7.2% 6.4% 5.9% 8.7% 7.5% 14.1% 6.1%

Notes: 1. Reformulated regular unleaded gasoline. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil Page 15

B1: World Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)

OECD Non-OECD OPEC World Americas Europe Asia Ocean. Total1 Asia Non-Asia FSU Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total2 Total3 Demand 2012 23.6 13.8 8.5 45.9 19.8 12.0 4.6 36.4 5.1 3.0 8.2 90.7 2013 24.2 13.6 8.3 46.1 20.7 12.0 4.5 37.2 5.3 3.1 8.5 91.7 2014 24.2 13.5 8.1 45.8 21.3 12.2 4.7 38.2 5.5 3.2 8.9 93.0 2015 24.6 13.7 8.0 46.4 22.5 12.3 4.6 39.4 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.0 2016 24.7 14.1 8.1 46.8 23.4 11.9 4.8 40.1 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.6 1Q 2015 24.5 13.5 8.7 46.6 22.1 11.6 4.4 38.1 5.8 3.4 9.2 93.8 2Q 2015 24.4 13.6 7.6 45.6 22.7 12.5 4.6 39.8 5.8 3.4 9.2 94.4 3Q 2015 25.0 14.2 7.7 46.9 22.4 12.8 4.8 40.0 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.9 4Q 2015 24.5 13.7 8.2 46.5 23.0 12.3 4.7 40.0 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.7 1Q 2016 24.5 13.7 8.5 46.7 23.3 11.4 4.6 39.3 6.0 3.5 9.6 95.5 2Q 2016 24.4 14.0 7.6 46.0 23.6 12.1 4.6 40.3 6.0 3.5 9.6 95.9 3Q 2016 25.0 14.5 7.8 47.3 22.9 12.5 4.9 40.3 6.0 3.5 9.6 97.1 4Q 2016 24.8 14.2 8.3 47.4 23.9 11.8 5.0 40.7 6.0 3.5 9.6 97.6 1Q 2017 24.5 13.9 8.5 46.8 23.8 11.1 4.7 39.7 6.2 3.7 10.0 96.5

Supply 2012 15.8 3.5 0.6 21.0 6.9 8.0 13.8 29.6 26.2 10.6 37.6 90.9 2013 17.2 3.3 0.5 22.2 7.7 7.7 13.8 30.2 26.2 9.8 36.7 91.2 2014 19.1 3.3 0.5 24.1 7.7 7.9 13.9 30.5 26.8 9.0 37.5 93.8 2015 20.0 3.5 0.5 25.1 7.9 8.1 14.0 31.0 28.2 8.7 38.1 96.6 2016 19.5 3.5 0.4 24.6 7.6 7.8 14.2 30.7 30.1 7.2 39.3 96.9

1Q 2015 20.1 3.4 0.4 25.1 7.9 8.1 14.1 31.1 27.3 8.8 36.9 95.3 2Q 2015 19.7 3.5 0.4 24.8 8.0 8.1 14.0 31.1 28.3 8.9 38.0 96.4 3Q 2015 20.1 3.4 0.5 25.2 7.8 8.0 13.9 30.7 28.7 8.6 39.1 97.2 4Q 2015 20.1 3.6 0.5 25.4 7.9 7.9 14.1 30.9 28.6 8.7 39.2 97.4 1Q 2016 19.9 3.6 0.4 25.2 7.8 7.7 14.3 30.9 28.9 8.5 39.6 96.6 2Q 2016 19.0 3.4 0.4 24.0 7.7 7.6 14.1 30.5 29.8 8.0 39.9 95.9 3Q 2016 19.3 3.3 0.4 24.3 7.5 7.9 14.0 30.5 30.6 7.7 39.5 96.9 4Q 2016 19.6 3.6 0.4 24.9 7.4 7.9 14.5 30.9 30.8 7.3 40.0 98.2 1Q 2017 19.9 3.7 0.4 25.2 7.5 7.8 14.4 30.8 29.5 7.1 38.7 96.6

Balance 2012 -7.8 -10.3 -7.9 -24.9 -12.9 -4.0 9.2 -6.8 21.1 7.6 29.4 0.2 2013 -7.0 -10.3 -7.8 -23.9 -13.0 -4.3 9.3 -7.0 20.9 6.7 28.2 -0.5 2014 -5.1 -10.2 -7.6 -21.7 -13.6 -4.3 9.2 -7.7 21.2 5.7 28.6 0.8 2015 -4.6 -10.2 -7.5 -21.3 -14.6 -4.2 9.4 -8.4 22.4 5.3 28.9 1.6 2016 -5.2 -10.6 -7.7 -22.2 -15.8 -4.1 9.4 -9.4 24.1 3.7 29.7 0.3 1Q 2015 -4.4 -10.1 -8.3 -21.5 -14.2 -3.5 9.7 -7.0 21.5 5.4 27.7 1.5 2Q 2015 -4.7 -10.1 -7.2 -20.8 -14.7 -4.4 9.4 -8.6 22.5 5.5 28.8 2.0 3Q 2015 -4.9 -10.8 -7.2 -21.7 -14.6 -4.8 9.1 -9.3 22.9 5.2 29.9 1.3 4Q 2015 -4.4 -10.1 -7.7 -21.1 -15.1 -4.4 9.4 -9.1 22.9 5.3 29.9 1.7 1Q 2016 -4.6 -10.1 -8.1 -21.5 -15.5 -3.7 9.7 -8.4 22.9 5.0 30.0 1.1 2Q 2016 -5.4 -10.6 -7.2 -22.0 -15.9 -4.5 9.5 -9.8 23.8 4.5 30.3 0.0 3Q 2016 -5.7 -11.2 -7.4 -23.0 -15.4 -4.6 9.1 -9.8 24.6 4.2 29.9 -0.2 4Q 2016 -5.2 -10.6 -7.9 -22.5 -16.5 -3.9 9.5 -9.8 24.8 3.7 30.4 0.6 1Q 2017 -4.6 -10.2 -8.1 -21.6 -16.3 -3.3 9.7 -8.9 23.3 3.4 28.6 0.1

Notes: 1. Totals for OECD and non-OECD supply include net refining gains; specific regions/groupings within each do not. 2. OPEC demand is an estimate based on historical annual data. 3. Balance for World equals global stockbuilds (+) and stockdraws (-) for crude oil and petroleum products and miscellaneous gains and losses. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports in the longer term. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products.

Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 16 B2: World Petroleum Production (million barrels per day)

OECD Non-OECD OPEC World Americas Europe Asia Oc. Total Asia Non-Asia FSU Total P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1

2014 19.08 3.32 0.51 22.91 6.88 8.16 13.87 28.90 26.77 8.96 37.48 89.29 2015 19.98 3.48 0.46 23.92 7.92 8.07 14.03 30.02 28.16 8.68 38.14 92.08 2016 19.46 3.51 0.43 23.40 7.61 7.78 14.21 29.59 30.06 7.22 39.33 92.32 1Q 2016 19.89 3.63 0.43 23.96 6.96 7.75 14.21 28.92 28.94 8.50 39.60 92.48 2Q 2016 18.96 3.44 0.41 22.82 6.77 7.76 14.01 28.54 29.80 8.03 39.92 91.28 3Q 2016 19.32 3.34 0.45 23.11 7.50 7.91 13.99 29.39 30.64 7.72 39.54 92.04 4Q 2016 19.65 3.64 0.41 23.70 7.48 7.95 14.52 29.96 30.85 7.26 40.04 93.70 1Q 2017 19.90 3.67 0.39 23.96 7.49 7.80 14.43 29.72 29.55 7.10 38.65 92.33 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.1% 1.1% -9.3% 0.0% 7.6% 0.6% 1.5% 2.8% 2.1% -16.4% -2.4% -0.2% May-16 18.56 3.48 0.42 22.46 6.73 7.81 14.02 28.56 29.66 7.90 39.63 90.65 Jun-16 18.73 3.27 0.43 22.43 6.80 7.92 14.09 28.80 30.05 7.96 40.11 91.34 Jul-16 19.26 3.64 0.46 23.36 6.69 7.94 14.11 28.73 30.45 7.80 40.37 92.46 Aug-16 19.35 3.35 0.45 23.15 6.57 7.98 13.60 28.14 30.56 7.74 40.43 91.72 Sep-16 19.21 2.98 0.43 22.62 6.61 8.09 14.17 28.86 30.64 7.85 40.54 92.02 Oct-16 19.53 3.49 0.44 23.46 7.37 7.96 14.51 29.84 30.91 8.10 39.94 93.24 Nov-16 19.85 3.77 0.41 24.04 7.50 7.94 14.47 29.91 30.82 7.37 40.22 94.17 Dec-16 19.49 3.65 0.43 23.57 7.56 8.00 14.53 30.10 30.67 7.20 39.85 93.52 Jan-17 19.53 3.62 0.39 23.55 7.50 7.91 14.44 29.84 29.46 7.21 38.63 92.02 Feb-17 20.02 3.66 0.38 24.06 7.50 7.92 14.46 29.89 29.61 7.20 38.80 92.75 Mar-17 19.96 3.73 0.39 24.08 7.49 7.67 14.39 29.55 29.56 6.93 38.47 92.10 Apr-17 19.65 3.60 0.38 23.63 7.42 7.73 14.36 29.50 29.59 6.96 38.57 91.70 May-17 19.62 3.48 0.38 23.49 7.40 7.82 14.31 29.54 29.58 7.30 38.86 91.89 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.7% 0.0% -9.5% 4.6% 10.0% 0.1% 2.1% 3.4% -0.3% -7.6% -1.9% 1.4% R/P Ratio2 31.8 10.3 29.6 28.5 15.2 21.5 28.3 23.2 74.3 150.7 84.9 50.9

Notes: 1. Production includes crude oil, condensates and NGLs. 2. Reserve-Production ratio is based on latest month production and British Petroleum reserve estimates. Sources: IEA Oil Market Report and BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

B3: OECD Commercial Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)

Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product1 Total2

2014 553 727 1,443 311 505 880 157 169 389 1,020 1,401 2,712 2015 641 773 1,590 361 563 990 206 166 435 1,208 1,502 3,015 2016 646 776 1,600 339 562 971 192 162 415 1,177 1,500 2,985 1Q 2016 689 758 1,620 349 586 1,004 196 166 421 1,235 1,509 3,046 2Q 2016 650 773 1,609 357 581 1,005 202 175 438 1,208 1,529 3,052 3Q 2016 621 801 1,617 353 568 992 202 187 450 1,176 1,556 3,060 4Q 2016 646 776 1,600 339 562 971 192 162 415 1,177 1,500 2,985 1Q 2017 696 735 1,605 360 587 1,018 189 155 403 1,244 1,477 3,026 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.9% -2.9% -1.0% 3.1% 0.2% 1.4% -3.7% -6.8% -4.3% 0.8% -2.1% -0.6% Apr-16 661 762 1,599 352 584 1,006 194 164 420 1,207 1,510 3,025 May-16 656 764 1,602 357 589 1,014 203 171 434 1,215 1,525 3,050 Jun-16 650 773 1,609 357 581 1,005 202 175 438 1,208 1,529 3,052 Jul-16 646 795 1,636 363 593 1,024 196 184 442 1,205 1,572 3,101 Aug-16 639 801 1,635 355 585 1,009 188 193 442 1,181 1,578 3,086 Sep-16 621 801 1,617 353 568 992 202 187 450 1,176 1,556 3,060 Oct-16 647 782 1,624 347 559 977 202 181 447 1,196 1,522 3,048 Nov-16 646 789 1,623 341 562 975 195 172 430 1,182 1,522 3,028 Dec-16 646 776 1,600 339 562 971 192 162 415 1,177 1,500 2,985 Jan-17 665 781 1,623 355 597 1,022 193 166 421 1,212 1,544 3,067 Feb-17 683 764 1,619 360 592 1,025 185 165 412 1,228 1,521 3,056 Mar-17 696 735 1,605 360 587 1,018 189 155 403 1,244 1,477 3,026 Apr-17 688 745 1,610 353 589 1,014 196 163 422 1,237 1,498 3,045 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.0% -2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.9% 0.7% 1.3% -0.7% 0.3% 2.5% -0.8% 0.6%

Notes: 1. Product includes only finished petroleum products. 2. Total stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil Page 17

B4: OPEC Crude Oil Production and Targets (million barrels per day)

Persian Gulf Non-Persian Gulf OPEC-12 Arabia Iran UAE Kuwait Qatar Angola Nigeria Libya Algeria Venez. Ecuador Gabon Total1 Iraq2

2014 9.72 2.81 2.76 2.80 0.71 1.66 1.90 0.46 1.12 2.46 0.55 0.22 27.65 3.33 2015 10.16 2.85 2.93 2.79 0.65 1.76 1.77 0.40 1.11 2.46 0.54 0.23 27.65 4.00 2016 10.42 3.55 3.03 2.88 0.65 1.71 1.47 0.39 1.11 2.24 0.55 0.23 28.22 4.42 1Q 2016 10.21 3.15 2.81 2.83 0.66 1.77 1.76 0.36 1.10 2.34 0.54 0.22 28.48 4.28 2Q 2016 10.33 3.59 2.98 2.82 0.66 1.74 1.50 0.32 1.09 2.23 0.55 0.22 28.76 4.31 3Q 2016 10.61 3.67 3.12 2.92 0.64 1.72 1.25 0.31 1.13 2.19 0.55 0.23 28.34 4.43 4Q 2016 10.55 3.81 3.13 2.86 0.64 1.61 1.46 0.57 1.12 2.12 0.54 0.22 28.63 4.64 1Q 2017 9.90 3.78 2.94 2.71 0.60 1.64 1.39 0.66 1.05 2.04 0.52 0.20 27.44 4.45 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -3.0% 20.0% 4.6% -4.2% -9.1% -7.3% -21.0% 83.3% -4.5% -12.8% -3.7% -9.1% -3.7% 4.0% May-16 10.25 3.61 2.91 2.85 0.66 1.72 1.44 0.28 1.09 2.22 0.55 0.22 28.54 4.27 Jun-16 10.50 3.62 3.01 2.87 0.66 1.74 1.51 0.32 1.10 2.16 0.55 0.22 29.00 4.25 Jul-16 10.65 3.63 3.08 2.87 0.66 1.76 1.39 0.30 1.11 2.15 0.55 0.22 29.11 4.32 Aug-16 10.60 3.67 3.09 2.91 0.65 1.76 1.37 0.28 1.12 2.14 0.55 0.21 29.09 4.40 Sep-16 10.61 3.68 3.10 2.90 0.62 1.69 1.39 0.36 1.12 2.13 0.56 0.21 29.11 4.49 Oct-16 10.56 3.82 3.12 2.93 0.63 1.51 1.43 0.51 1.13 2.15 0.54 0.22 28.55 4.59 Nov-16 10.64 3.77 3.13 2.83 0.65 1.69 1.53 0.58 1.12 2.12 0.55 0.23 28.84 4.61 Dec-16 10.45 3.77 3.14 2.81 0.63 1.64 1.39 0.62 1.12 2.10 0.54 0.21 28.42 4.66 Jan-17 9.80 3.75 2.99 2.71 0.61 1.63 1.43 0.69 1.05 2.05 0.53 0.20 27.44 4.46 Feb-17 9.98 3.81 2.93 2.71 0.59 1.65 1.45 0.67 1.05 2.05 0.53 0.20 27.62 4.45 Mar-17 9.93 3.79 2.91 2.70 0.61 1.64 1.30 0.61 1.05 2.03 0.52 0.20 27.29 4.43 Apr-17 9.96 3.75 2.93 2.71 0.62 1.66 1.38 0.55 1.06 2.02 0.53 0.20 27.37 4.42 May-17 9.92 3.78 2.92 2.72 0.63 1.63 1.50 0.74 1.06 2.00 0.53 0.20 27.63 4.45 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -3.2% 4.7% 0.3% -4.6% -4.5% -5.2% 4.2% 164.3% -2.8% -9.9% -3.6% -9.1% -3.2% 4.2%

Notes: 1. Does not include NGLs; OPEC production targets apply to crude oil only. 2. Iraq does not have an official OPEC target. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

B5: OECD Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent) - Refining Margins ($US/barrel)

Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD Input Util. Margin1 Input Util. Margin2 Input Util. Margin3 Input Util.

2014 18.9 88.0 1.93 11.4 79.6 3.35 6.5 138.6 -1.98 36.8 83.9 2015 19.1 87.3 5.65 12.1 84.8 7.28 6.7 146.0 0.62 37.9 85.9 2016 18.9 86.4 4.72 11.9 83.7 4.28 6.9 149.3 0.18 37.7 85.5 1Q 2016 19.0 86.7 3.73 11.8 82.4 3.99 7.1 154.8 1.2 37.8 85.8 2Q 2016 18.9 86.5 4.70 11.4 79.9 4.42 6.7 146.6 -1.5 37.1 84.0 3Q 2016 19.2 87.7 5.33 12.3 86.0 3.55 6.7 146.1 0.0 38.2 86.6 4Q 2016 18.6 84.8 5.13 12.3 86.4 5.14 6.9 149.7 1.1 37.8 85.6 1Q 2017 18.8 85.9 5.38 12.0 84.1 4.87 7.2 157.1 1.02 38.0 86.2 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.0% 44.4% 2.0% 22.2% 1.5% -12.8% 0.5% Apr-16 18.8 85.9 5.41 11.4 80.0 4.37 7.0 151.1 -1.5 37.2 84.2 May-16 18.8 85.7 4.30 11.3 79.0 4.05 6.8 146.9 -1.8 36.8 83.4 Jun-16 19.2 87.8 4.39 11.5 80.6 4.85 6.5 141.9 -1.3 37.2 84.4 Jul-16 19.4 88.7 4.58 12.3 86.3 3.02 6.8 147.4 0.1 38.5 87.3 Aug-16 19.4 88.5 6.00 12.5 87.3 3.43 6.8 148.0 -1.1 38.6 87.5 Sep-16 18.8 86.0 5.40 12.1 84.5 4.19 6.6 142.8 1.0 37.5 84.9 Oct-16 17.8 81.4 4.98 12.1 84.8 5.76 6.4 138.7 0.1 36.3 82.3 Nov-16 18.8 85.8 4.51 12.4 86.8 5.65 6.9 150.6 2.4 38.1 86.3 Dec-16 19.1 87.4 5.91 12.5 87.7 4.02 7.4 159.8 0.8 39.0 88.4 Jan-17 19.0 86.7 6.28 12.3 86.1 4.85 7.4 161.3 1.4 38.7 87.7 Feb-17 18.4 84.2 4.96 11.8 82.5 5.44 7.4 160.6 1.1 37.6 85.2 Mar-17 19.0 86.7 4.90 11.9 83.5 4.32 6.9 149.3 0.7 37.8 85.6 Apr-17 19.8 90.5 6.10 12.2 85.5 6.29 6.8 146.9 1.0 38.8 87.8 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.3% 12.8% 6.8% 44% -2.7% -164.9% 4.3%

Notes: 1. Based on dated Brent being processed in average US Gulf cracking refinery. 2. Based on dated Brent in average Rotterdam cracking refinery. 3. Based on spot Dubai in average Singapore hydroskimming refinery. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 18 C1: US Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)

United States1 East Mid-West Supply Demand Net-Imp. Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance 2014 13.67 19.03 5.04 0.26 0.31 5.45 -5.14 3.35 4.91 -1.56 2015 14.78 19.39 4.65 0.43 0.41 5.58 -5.17 3.63 5.01 -1.38 2016 14.61 19.63 4.87 0.13 0.47 5.42 -4.94 3.63 5.13 -1.50 1Q 2016 14.72 19.45 4.98 0.41 0.44 5.52 -5.08 3.69 5.03 -1.35 2Q 2016 14.65 19.43 4.69 0.27 0.46 5.38 -4.92 3.67 5.09 -1.42 3Q 2016 14.45 19.90 5.15 0.00 0.50 5.35 -4.86 3.58 5.23 -1.65 4Q 2016 14.62 19.75 4.69 -0.18 0.50 5.41 -4.91 3.59 5.17 -1.59 1Q 2017 14.78 19.49 4.26 0.02 0.51 5.55 -5.03 3.62 5.03 -1.41 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.4% 0.2% -14.3% 16.4% 0.4% -1.8% -0.1% Mar-16 14.82 19.62 5.00 0.26 0.44 5.52 -5.08 3.71 5.04 -1.33 Apr-16 14.59 19.26 4.68 0.36 0.46 5.38 -4.92 3.62 5.02 -1.40 May-16 14.77 19.20 4.53 0.51 0.46 5.29 -4.82 3.68 4.97 -1.29 Jun-16 14.60 19.83 4.87 -0.06 0.45 5.47 -5.02 3.70 5.27 -1.57 Jul-16 14.62 19.71 5.30 0.50 0.50 5.25 -4.75 3.65 5.16 -1.51 Aug-16 14.47 20.13 5.20 0.01 0.51 5.55 -5.04 3.58 5.30 -1.72 Sep-16 14.28 19.86 4.94 -0.51 0.48 5.26 -4.78 3.51 5.24 -1.72 Oct-16 14.57 19.62 4.78 0.09 0.49 5.33 -4.84 3.59 5.26 -1.67 Nov-16 14.80 19.66 4.92 0.11 0.50 5.39 -4.89 3.66 5.02 -1.36 Dec-16 14.48 19.98 4.35 -0.74 0.51 5.52 -5.01 3.52 5.24 -1.72 Jan-17 14.49 19.23 5.01 0.71 0.51 5.33 -4.82 3.52 4.97 -1.45 Feb-17 14.83 19.19 3.61 -0.12 0.51 5.43 -4.92 3.66 5.00 -1.34 Mar-17 15.02 20.03 4.17 -0.54 0.52 5.88 -5.36 3.68 5.12 -1.44 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.4% 2.1% -16.5% 19.1% 6.6% -0.9% 1.5% % of Total2 100.0% 100.0% 3.5% 29.3% 24.5% 25.5%

South-Central North-West West Finished Petroleum Products Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance 2014 7.65 5.16 2.50 0.98 0.71 0.27 1.38 2.81 -1.43 2015 8.31 5.20 3.11 1.10 0.69 0.41 1.33 2.91 -1.59 2016 8.14 5.39 2.75 1.07 0.71 0.35 1.30 2.99 -1.68 1Q 2016 8.16 5.35 2.81 1.08 0.70 0.38 1.34 2.85 -1.50 2Q 2016 8.16 5.25 2.91 1.08 0.69 0.39 1.29 3.03 -1.74 3Q 2016 8.06 5.41 2.65 1.04 0.75 0.29 1.27 3.15 -1.88 4Q 2016 8.16 5.53 2.63 1.06 0.71 0.35 1.31 2.93 -1.62 1Q 2017 8.30 5.30 3.01 1.04 0.69 0.35 1.30 2.92 -1.62 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.8% -0.9% -3.9% -1.1% -3.1% 2.6% Mar-16 8.23 5.42 2.81 1.11 0.71 0.40 1.33 2.93 -1.61 Apr-16 8.15 5.25 2.90 1.08 0.63 0.45 1.29 2.99 -1.70 May-16 8.23 5.25 2.98 1.08 0.71 0.37 1.31 2.99 -1.67 Jun-16 8.11 5.26 2.85 1.07 0.73 0.34 1.26 3.11 -1.85 Jul-16 8.14 5.43 2.71 1.05 0.73 0.33 1.27 3.15 -1.88 Aug-16 8.08 5.28 2.80 1.03 0.78 0.25 1.28 3.23 -1.95 Sep-16 7.97 5.54 2.44 1.04 0.76 0.28 1.27 3.08 -1.81 Oct-16 8.11 5.33 2.78 1.08 0.74 0.34 1.30 2.96 -1.66 Nov-16 8.25 5.67 2.59 1.08 0.71 0.37 1.31 2.86 -1.55 Dec-16 8.12 5.59 2.53 1.02 0.68 0.34 1.31 2.96 -1.64 Jan-17 8.14 5.41 2.73 1.01 0.67 0.34 1.31 2.86 -1.55 Feb-17 8.33 5.21 3.12 1.05 0.69 0.35 1.29 2.86 -1.57 Mar-17 8.45 5.28 3.17 1.07 0.72 0.35 1.31 3.04 -1.74 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.6% -2.6% -3.4% 1.3% -1.6% 3.7% % of Total2 56.2% 26.4% 7.1% 3.6% 8.7% 15.2%

Notes: 1. Does not balance because of unaccounted for crude oil. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports/transfers and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports/transfers in the longer term. 2. As of most recent month. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non- conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil Page 19

C2: US Petroleum Demand by Product (million barrels per day)

Finished Petroleum Products NGLs Petroleum Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2 2014 8.92 1.47 4.01 0.26 16.64 2.40 19.03 2015 9.16 1.54 3.98 0.26 16.94 2.47 19.39 2016 9.33 1.61 3.88 0.36 17.17 2.49 19.63 1Q 2016 9.09 1.50 3.91 0.31 16.70 2.73 19.45 2Q 2016 9.44 1.61 3.81 0.41 17.24 2.25 19.43 3Q 2016 9.56 1.68 3.79 0.36 17.55 2.40 19.90 4Q 2016 9.22 1.63 4.01 0.35 17.19 2.59 19.75 1Q 2017 8.95 1.60 3.95 0.36 16.68 2.79 19.49 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.6% 6.1% 1.1% 16.5% -0.1% 2.2% 0.2% Mar-16 9.40 1.54 3.94 0.40 17.22 2.51 19.62 Apr-16 9.21 1.56 3.82 0.48 16.98 2.30 19.26 May-16 9.44 1.56 3.75 0.33 17.06 2.26 19.20 Jun-16 9.66 1.71 3.86 0.41 17.70 2.19 19.83 Jul-16 9.60 1.72 3.58 0.45 17.48 2.38 19.71 Aug-16 9.60 1.71 3.89 0.34 17.82 2.30 20.13 Sep-16 9.49 1.62 3.91 0.29 17.35 2.52 19.86 Oct-16 9.10 1.61 4.02 0.35 17.04 2.54 19.62 Nov-16 9.24 1.63 3.96 0.38 17.27 2.49 19.66 Dec-16 9.31 1.65 4.06 0.32 17.26 2.74 19.98 Jan-17 8.50 1.59 3.78 0.46 16.20 3.04 19.23 Feb-17 8.99 1.53 3.91 0.27 16.51 2.71 19.19 Mar-17 9.35 1.67 4.15 0.36 17.33 2.62 20.03 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.5% 8.7% 5.4% -9.0% 0.6% 4.5% 2.1%

Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C3: US Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)

Petroleum Stocks1 Crude Oil Finished Products East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West U.S. Total2 Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total3 2014 158 289 1,227 42 140 1,856 1,085 31 38 136 34 287 2015 193 335 1,298 46 144 2,015 1,176 28 40 161 42 325 2016 196 327 1,325 45 139 2,031 1,179 29 43 165 42 330 1Q 2016 190 336 1,331 47 148 2,052 1,228 26 44 161 45 334 2Q 2016 199 335 1,350 46 148 2,077 1,224 25 40 149 40 310 3Q 2016 195 335 1,333 42 142 2,048 1,164 25 45 160 39 319 4Q 2016 196 327 1,325 45 139 2,031 1,179 29 43 165 42 330 1Q 2017 189 329 1,327 47 141 2,033 1,229 22 42 151 41 313 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.8% -2.0% -0.3% -1.1% -4.6% -1.0% 0.1% -17.9% -3.5% -5.9% -8.4% -6.4% Mar-16 190 336 1,331 47 148 2,052 1,228 26 44 161 45 334 Apr-16 197 334 1,340 47 145 2,063 1,233 25 43 155 43 325 May-16 197 338 1,345 46 153 2,079 1,236 24 45 154 40 321 Jun-16 199 335 1,350 46 148 2,077 1,224 25 40 149 40 310 Jul-16 204 339 1,328 42 149 2,062 1,185 25 42 156 38 316 Aug-16 202 341 1,336 42 143 2,063 1,179 26 43 160 40 320 Sep-16 195 335 1,333 42 142 2,048 1,164 25 45 160 39 319 Oct-16 199 326 1,340 45 140 2,050 1,184 26 45 154 39 311 Nov-16 198 329 1,339 46 142 2,054 1,184 27 45 160 41 319 Dec-16 196 327 1,325 45 139 2,031 1,179 29 43 165 42 330 Jan-17 211 330 1,326 44 140 2,053 1,200 28 42 169 40 333 Feb-17 205 333 1,325 45 142 2,049 1,218 26 44 162 40 327 Mar-17 189 329 1,327 47 141 2,033 1,229 22 42 151 41 313 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.8% -2.0% -0.3% -1.1% -4.6% -1.0% 0.1% -17.9% -3.5% -5.9% -8.4% -6.4%

Notes: 1. Petroleum stocks include crude oil, finished products, NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. 2. Includes Strategic Petroleum Reserves. 3. Total includes other finished petroleum products. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 20 C4: US Petroleum Net Imports by Source (million barrels per day)

Region of Origin OPEC Canada Mexico Lat. Am. Europe Africa M.E. Total1 Venez. S. Arabia Nigeria Total2 P. Gulf 2014 2.58 0.29 0.56 -0.12 0.17 1.85 5.04 0.71 1.16 0.04 2.98 1.86 2015 2.81 0.07 0.73 -0.18 0.17 1.49 4.65 0.75 1.05 0.06 2.65 1.50 2016 2.93 -0.21 0.73 -0.23 0.41 1.77 4.87 0.72 1.10 0.23 3.23 1.74 1Q 2016 3.21 -0.12 0.77 -0.18 0.36 1.62 4.98 0.72 1.12 0.22 3.06 1.62 2Q 2016 2.65 -0.06 0.69 -0.32 0.40 1.84 4.69 0.71 1.14 0.26 3.25 1.78 3Q 2016 2.80 -0.25 0.85 -0.27 0.39 1.88 5.15 0.77 1.13 0.21 3.39 1.83 4Q 2016 3.09 -0.41 0.61 -0.14 0.50 1.75 4.69 0.68 1.00 0.23 3.21 1.74 1Q 2017 3.41 -0.31 0.49 -0.27 0.51 2.00 4.26 0.67 1.28 0.29 3.41 2.00 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.3% 163% -35.7% 51.4% 41.7% 23.6% -14.3% -7.3% 14.4% 31.1% 11.2% 23.5% Mar-16 3.12 -0.23 0.96 -0.18 0.44 1.80 5.00 0.80 1.31 0.29 3.42 1.81 Apr-16 2.71 0.03 0.61 -0.37 0.36 1.77 4.67 0.72 1.15 0.23 3.18 1.71 May-16 2.70 -0.08 0.65 -0.41 0.39 1.98 4.53 0.69 1.17 0.30 3.42 1.92 Jun-16 2.53 -0.14 0.82 -0.18 0.43 1.76 4.87 0.71 1.10 0.25 3.15 1.71 Jul-16 2.44 -0.11 0.82 -0.18 0.49 1.81 5.30 0.84 1.05 0.30 3.56 1.75 Aug-16 2.95 -0.27 0.85 -0.41 0.35 1.82 5.20 0.70 1.14 0.17 3.22 1.81 Sep-16 3.00 -0.37 0.87 -0.23 0.33 2.00 4.94 0.77 1.21 0.17 3.38 1.94 Oct-16 2.76 -0.34 0.66 -0.05 0.51 1.66 4.78 0.68 1.01 0.23 3.11 1.66 Nov-16 3.17 -0.30 0.52 -0.04 0.53 1.69 4.92 0.68 1.00 0.23 3.21 1.67 Dec-16 3.33 -0.59 0.66 -0.34 0.45 1.89 4.36 0.70 1.01 0.24 3.30 1.88 Jan-17 3.52 -0.35 0.39 -0.06 0.55 2.07 5.01 0.66 1.34 0.32 3.58 2.07 Feb-17 3.41 -0.34 0.59 -0.34 0.44 1.99 3.61 0.66 1.34 0.21 3.20 1.99 Mar-17 3.31 -0.23 0.51 -0.40 0.54 1.95 4.17 0.70 1.17 0.34 3.44 1.95 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.3% -1% -47.5% 127.8% 21.7% 7.8% -16.5% -12.3% -10.7% 17% 0.6% 7.9% % of Total3 79.4% -5.4% 12.1% -9.6% 12.9% 46.6% 100.0% 16.7% 28.0% 8.1% 82.5% 46.7% Notes: 1. Total includes net-imports from Russia and Asia-Pacific region. 2. Total OPEC includes the other eight cartel members. 3. As of latest month. Source EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C5: US Regional Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day) PAD District U.S. Major Producers East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Alaska Calif.1 Louis. Texas G. of Mex.2 2014 0.04 1.62 5.00 0.58 1.11 8.35 0.50 0.60 0.19 3.04 1.35 2015 0.05 1.81 5.69 0.73 1.08 9.35 0.49 0.59 0.17 3.50 1.50 2016 0.05 1.71 5.49 0.67 1.03 8.95 0.49 0.54 0.16 3.25 1.59 1Q 2016 0.05 1.82 5.68 0.72 1.10 9.37 0.53 0.57 0.16 3.41 1.62 2Q 2016 0.05 1.72 5.48 0.67 1.04 8.96 0.50 0.54 0.16 3.24 1.58 3Q 2016 0.05 1.67 5.40 0.65 1.00 8.76 0.47 0.53 0.16 3.18 1.57 4Q 2016 0.04 1.62 5.40 0.65 0.99 8.71 0.47 0.53 0.15 3.17 1.58 1Q 2017 0.04 1.63 5.69 0.65 1.05 9.06 0.53 0.52 0.15 3.26 1.76 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.5% -10.2% 0.1% -10.6% -4.3% -3.3% 0.4% -8.7% -11.2% -4.4% 8.9% Mar-16 0.05 1.75 5.61 0.70 1.07 9.18 0.52 0.55 0.16 3.36 1.61 Apr-16 0.05 1.70 5.38 0.66 1.04 8.82 0.49 0.55 0.16 3.21 1.52 May-16 0.05 1.76 5.58 0.68 1.06 9.13 0.51 0.55 0.16 3.28 1.64 Jun-16 0.05 1.70 5.49 0.67 1.03 8.93 0.49 0.54 0.16 3.23 1.59 Jul-16 0.04 1.70 5.46 0.65 1.04 8.89 0.51 0.53 0.16 3.20 1.62 Aug-16 0.04 1.62 5.18 0.62 0.95 8.42 0.45 0.50 0.15 3.07 1.49 Sep-16 0.05 1.71 5.54 0.67 1.00 8.97 0.45 0.55 0.16 3.27 1.61 Oct-16 0.04 1.61 5.45 0.65 0.99 8.74 0.46 0.53 0.15 3.16 1.65 Nov-16 0.04 1.58 5.32 0.65 0.98 8.58 0.45 0.53 0.16 3.16 1.51 Dec-16 0.04 1.67 5.43 0.65 1.01 8.81 0.49 0.52 0.15 3.18 1.59 Jan-17 0.04 1.60 5.35 0.62 1.00 8.62 0.50 0.50 0.14 3.09 1.63 Feb-17 0.05 1.72 6.13 0.69 1.13 9.72 0.57 0.56 0.16 3.49 1.91 Mar-17 0.04 1.57 5.59 0.62 1.02 8.84 0.52 0.50 0.14 3.19 1.75 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -2.3% -10.7% -0.5% -10.7% -5.1% -3.7% 0.0% -9.9% -10.7% -5.1% 8.5% R/P Ratio3 11.3 13.2 9.7 13.3 12.7 10.9 11.2 14.2 10.5 11.2 6.7 Notes: 1. California includes Federal Offshore crude oil production. 2. Gulf of Mexico includes Federal Offshore production adjacent to Texas and Louisiana. 3. Crude oil Reserve-Production ratio as of latest production month. Crude oil production does not include NGLs. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil Page 21

C6: US Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent)

East Mid-West South-Central North-West West U.S. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. 2014 1.09 84.2 3.52 92.5 8.38 91.5 0.58 90.5 2.57 87.0 16.14 90.4 2015 1.15 90.7 3.59 93.1 8.70 93.4 0.60 93.2 2.58 88.2 16.61 92.3 2016 1.11 86.6 3.62 91.9 8.68 90.7 0.60 86.5 2.51 85.9 16.51 89.8 1Q 2016 1.09 85.2 3.58 91.3 8.52 89.5 0.58 85.1 2.50 85.6 16.26 88.8 2Q 2016 1.16 90.7 3.54 90.2 8.70 91.1 0.58 83.9 2.53 86.4 16.50 89.9 3Q 2016 1.09 85.4 3.70 93.9 8.79 91.5 0.63 90.2 2.67 91.4 16.88 91.5 4Q 2016 1.09 85.1 3.65 92.1 8.72 90.6 0.60 86.6 2.35 80.4 16.41 88.8 1Q 2017 0.95 75.5 3.68 92.0 8.51 87.4 0.60 87.0 2.47 84.4 16.22 87.1 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -12.9% 2.7% 0.0% 4.6% -1.1% -0.3% Mar-16 1.05 82.3 3.39 86.5 8.72 91.6 0.58 86.4 2.52 86.1 16.26 88.8 Apr-16 1.15 89.8 3.34 85.0 8.63 90.7 0.51 75.0 2.60 88.9 16.22 88.5 May-16 1.17 91.9 3.61 92.0 8.69 91.4 0.57 83.4 2.44 83.3 16.48 89.9 Jun-16 1.16 90.4 3.69 93.7 8.77 91.3 0.65 93.1 2.55 87.1 16.80 91.1 Jul-16 1.10 85.7 3.73 94.7 8.88 92.4 0.63 90.7 2.67 91.2 16.99 92.2 Aug-16 1.09 85.4 3.75 95.3 8.80 91.7 0.61 87.8 2.72 93.0 16.98 92.1 Sep-16 1.09 85.1 3.63 91.7 8.70 90.5 0.64 92.2 2.63 89.9 16.68 90.4 Oct-16 1.08 84.5 3.58 90.4 8.28 86.1 0.58 83.6 2.26 77.4 15.78 85.4 Nov-16 1.12 87.6 3.67 92.7 8.78 91.3 0.62 89.7 2.35 80.4 16.55 89.6 Dec-16 1.07 83.3 3.71 93.2 9.08 94.3 0.60 86.5 2.44 83.5 16.90 91.3 Jan-17 1.05 83.7 3.72 93.0 8.54 87.7 0.61 88.1 2.53 86.4 16.46 88.4 Feb-17 0.90 71.9 3.62 90.6 8.34 85.6 0.59 85.4 2.37 80.7 15.82 85.0 Mar-17 0.89 70.9 3.70 92.4 8.67 89.0 0.61 87.4 2.52 86.0 16.38 88.0 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -15.3% 8.9% -0.6% 4.5% 0.1% 0.7% % of Total1 5.4% 22.6% 52.9% 3.7% 15.4% 100.0% Notes: 1) As of most recent month. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C7: US Refinery Margins ($US per barrel)

NY Harbor Chicago US Gulf Los Angeles (East Coast Comp.) (WTI) (WTS) (ANS) 2014 8.62 16.57 11.76 8.68 2015 12.86 18.05 12.96 19.50 2016 9.28 11.63 10.24 11.51 1Q 2016 8.14 7.55 8.65 11.05 2Q 2016 10.38 15.87 11.29 13.47 3Q 2016 8.90 13.86 10.81 10.94 4Q 2016 9.71 9.25 10.20 10.59 1Q 2017 7.31 9.38 11.22 12.30 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -10.2% 24.3% 29.7% 11.3% May-16 11.03 15.89 11.11 10.81 Jun-16 10.06 17.13 11.27 15.02 Jul-16 8.21 11.41 9.83 8.87 Aug-16 9.36 15.92 12.25 8.76 Sep-16 9.12 14.26 10.34 15.18 Oct-16 10.76 10.15 11.13 13.22 Nov-16 10.53 7.73 9.01 10.33 Dec-16 7.83 9.88 10.46 8.23 Jan-17 8.03 9.62 11.18 9.84 Feb-17 6.87 7.38 10.72 13.69 Mar-17 7.02 11.15 11.76 13.36 Apr-17 9.84 14.06 12.78 14.20 May-17 9.55 12.62 11.36 14.78 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -13.4% -20.6% 2.3% 36.7%

Note: Based on specific crude being processed in average cracking refinery in a given area. As of February 2010, NY Harbor Arab Med. is now East Coast Composite. Source: Oil and Gas Journal.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 22 D1: Canada Petroleum Supply and Demand Balances (million barrels per day)

Canada East West Supply Demand Net-Exp Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance 2014 4.09 1.56 2.54 0.02 0.27 0.87 -0.60 3.82 0.70 3.12 2015 4.51 1.58 2.96 0.03 0.22 0.96 -0.74 4.29 0.62 3.67 2016 4.43 1.55 2.88 0.00 0.25 0.87 -0.62 4.18 0.68 3.50 4Q 2015 4.65 1.49 3.27 0.12 0.25 0.92 -0.67 4.40 0.58 3.82 1Q 2016 4.62 1.51 3.09 -0.01 0.29 0.87 -0.59 4.33 0.64 3.69 2Q 2016 3.86 1.50 2.23 -0.12 0.26 0.86 -0.60 3.60 0.64 2.96 3Q 2016 4.58 1.67 2.94 0.03 0.29 0.92 -0.63 4.29 0.75 3.54 4Q 2016 4.83 1.53 3.41 0.11 0.32 0.84 -0.52 4.51 0.70 3.82 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.0% 2.6% 4.1% 28.4% -8.7% 2.6% 20.6% Jan-16 4.70 1.65 2.98 -0.07 0.29 0.95 -0.66 4.41 0.70 3.71 Feb-16 4.61 1.23 3.39 0.00 0.29 0.74 -0.44 4.32 0.49 3.83 Mar-16 4.54 1.66 2.92 0.04 0.28 0.94 -0.66 4.26 0.72 3.54 Apr-16 4.17 1.65 2.56 0.04 0.28 0.95 -0.67 3.90 0.70 3.20 May-16 3.56 1.30 2.06 -0.20 0.29 0.75 -0.45 3.27 0.55 2.72 Jun-16 3.84 1.56 2.07 -0.21 0.22 0.89 -0.67 3.62 0.68 2.95 Jul-16 4.49 1.74 2.86 0.11 0.23 0.97 -0.75 4.26 0.77 3.49 Aug-16 4.63 1.72 2.89 -0.01 0.32 0.95 -0.63 4.31 0.77 3.54 Sep-16 4.61 1.53 3.06 -0.01 0.32 0.83 -0.52 4.29 0.70 3.59 Oct-16 4.69 1.36 3.52 0.19 0.32 0.76 -0.44 4.37 0.60 3.77 Nov-16 5.00 1.61 3.58 0.19 0.33 0.86 -0.53 4.67 0.75 3.92 Dec-16 4.81 1.63 3.12 -0.06 0.31 0.89 -0.58 4.49 0.73 3.76 Jan-17 5.02 1.76 3.28 0.02 0.34 0.93 -0.59 4.68 0.84 3.85 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.9% 7.1% 10.1% 18.4% -2.0% 6.1% 19.5% % of Total1 100.0% 100.0% 6.8% 52.6% 93.2% 47.4%

Notes: 1. As of most recent month. See notes for Table C1 for additional comments. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

D2: Canada Demand by Product D3: Canada Petroleum Stocks (million barrels per day) (million barrels)

Finished Products Finished Products Crude Oil Petrol. 1 2 Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1 Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total Total Total 2014 0.78 0.56 0.07 1.86 2014 18.9 18.1 3.0 59.4 105.9 165.3 2015 0.77 0.55 0.05 1.80 2015 16.7 15.3 3.2 52.1 110.4 162.4 2016 0.81 0.54 0.04 1.81 2016 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6 4Q 2015 0.76 0.53 0.04 1.77 4Q 2015 16.7 15.3 3.2 52.1 110.4 162.4 1Q 2016 0.78 0.50 0.06 1.73 1Q 2016 16.0 16.7 2.0 51.0 76.7 127.7 2Q 2016 0.81 0.54 0.04 1.80 2Q 2016 14.1 11.9 2.3 43.8 71.8 115.6 3Q 2016 0.85 0.56 0.04 1.91 3Q 2016 15.7 12.9 2.5 48.1 73.8 121.9 4Q 2016 0.80 0.54 0.04 1.80 4Q 2016 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.9% 2.4% -7.6% 1.3% Yr-on-Yr Chg. -5.3% -13.2% -32.0% -12.6% -30.2% -24.5% Jan-16 0.80 0.49 0.06 1.74 Jan-16 16.4 16.4 2.8 52.0 107.9 159.9 Feb-16 0.76 0.53 0.06 1.74 Feb-16 15.7 16.3 2.2 50.4 107.4 157.8 Mar-16 0.78 0.48 0.05 1.71 Mar-16 16.0 16.7 2.0 51.0 76.7 127.7 Apr-16 0.78 0.53 0.05 1.74 Apr-16 14.5 16.3 2.3 48.9 74.8 123.6 May-16 0.81 0.57 0.04 1.81 May-16 12.8 12.9 2.4 42.2 69.9 112.1 Jun-16 0.85 0.53 0.03 1.87 Jun-16 14.1 11.9 2.3 43.8 71.8 115.6 Jul-16 0.86 0.51 0.03 1.90 Jul-16 15.4 13.8 2.2 48.0 75.6 123.6 Aug-16 0.85 0.57 0.05 1.94 Aug-16 15.4 14.0 2.8 49.0 73.2 122.2 Sep-16 0.82 0.60 0.05 1.91 Sep-16 15.7 12.9 2.5 48.1 73.8 121.9 Oct-16 0.79 0.53 0.04 1.78 Oct-16 16.0 13.1 2.3 47.2 76.5 123.7 Nov-16 0.80 0.55 0.04 1.80 Nov-16 16.7 13.3 2.1 47.2 77.3 124.5 Dec-16 0.81 0.55 0.04 1.80 Dec-16 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6 Jan-17 0.73 0.52 0.05 1.73 Jan-17 16.7 14.6 2.0 48.8 77.5 126.2 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -8.5% 4.8% -94.7% -0.8% Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.5% -11.0% -27.2% -6.3% -28.2% -21.1% Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates 2. Total petroleum stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/ and other hydrocarbons. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels. Source: Handbook. Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil Page 23

D4: Canada Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)

Major Producers Canada Petroleum Type Alta. Sask. B.C. N.W.T. Atlantic Total1 Light SCO Heavy Bitumen NGLs 2014 2.91 0.51 0.05 0.01 0.22 3.76 0.94 0.95 0.46 1.21 0.22 2015 3.09 0.53 0.05 0.01 0.17 3.91 0.85 0.98 0.45 1.39 0.22 2016 3.08 0.46 0.06 0.01 0.21 3.87 0.78 0.93 0.40 1.49 0.26 4Q 2015 3.19 0.52 0.06 0.01 0.17 4.00 0.82 0.98 0.44 1.51 0.25 1Q 2016 3.21 0.47 0.07 0.01 0.21 4.02 0.83 1.04 0.40 1.48 0.26 2Q 2016 2.55 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.18 3.30 0.75 0.52 0.39 1.37 0.26 3Q 2016 3.20 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.21 3.97 0.76 1.01 0.40 1.53 0.27 4Q 2016 3.36 0.47 0.06 0.01 0.24 4.18 0.79 1.15 0.41 1.57 0.26 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.3% -9.5% -0.2% -7.2% 42.3% 4.5% -3.6% 17.8% -8.4% 3.9% 6.4% Jan-16 3.28 0.47 0.07 0.01 0.21 4.09 0.84 1.05 0.41 1.52 0.26 Feb-16 3.20 0.47 0.07 0.01 0.21 4.02 0.84 1.08 0.40 1.43 0.26 Mar-16 3.15 0.47 0.07 0.01 0.20 3.95 0.82 0.99 0.40 1.49 0.26 Apr-16 2.84 0.46 0.06 0.01 0.19 3.61 0.79 0.61 0.39 1.55 0.26 May-16 2.22 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.20 2.99 0.77 0.35 0.39 1.22 0.25 Jun-16 2.58 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.15 3.29 0.70 0.59 0.40 1.34 0.26 Jul-16 3.13 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.16 3.85 0.71 0.90 0.40 1.56 0.27 Aug-16 3.24 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.24 4.04 0.78 1.06 0.40 1.53 0.26 Sep-16 3.23 0.46 0.05 0.01 0.24 4.03 0.78 1.06 0.40 1.51 0.27 Oct-16 3.26 0.46 0.05 0.01 0.24 4.06 0.78 1.11 0.40 1.53 0.24 Nov-16 3.49 0.48 0.06 0.01 0.25 4.33 0.81 1.22 0.41 1.61 0.27 Dec-16 3.34 0.48 0.06 0.01 0.23 4.16 0.80 1.12 0.41 1.56 0.28 Jan-17 3.46 0.48 0.06 0.01 0.25 4.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.5% 1.8% -13.8% -3.4% 22.2% 5.2% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0%

Note: Total includes small amounts of production from Manitoba and Ontario. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

D5: Canada Petroleum Imports by Source (thousand barrels per day)

Non-OPEC OPEC Imports Mexico U.S. U.K. Norway Total1 Algeria Nigeria S. Arabia Venez. Total2 P. Gulf Total 2014 17 164 3 12 453 38 27 0 1 90 23 543 2015 0 256 4 8 496 45 26 0 0 71 0 567 2016 0 211 10 10 510 70 0 0 0 70 0 580 4Q 2015 0 187 0 11 446 33 10 0 0 43 0 489 1Q 2016 0 149 12 7 528 34 0 0 0 34 0 561 2Q 2016 0 258 2 19 521 120 0 0 0 120 0 642 3Q 2016 0 183 11 0 516 98 0 0 0 98 0 614 4Q 2016 0 253 15 13 473 30 0 0 0 30 0 503 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% 35.2% 14712% 18.4% 6.0% -10.0% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% -30.7% 0.0% 2.8% Jan-16 0 0 0 0 518 65 0 0 0 65 0 583 Feb-16 0 243 22 22 413 36 0 0 0 36 0 448 Mar-16 0 203 14 0 653 0 0 0 0 0 0 653 Apr-16 0 257 6 30 504 133 0 0 0 133 0 637 May-16 0 236 0 0 555 125 0 0 0 125 0 681 Jun-16 0 280 0 25 505 103 0 0 0 103 0 608 Jul-16 0 286 0 0 550 164 0 0 0 164 0 714 Aug-16 0 263 33 0 526 129 0 0 0 129 0 655 Sep-16 0 0 0 0 473 0 0 0 0 0 0 473 Oct-16 0 237 0 39 433 0 0 0 0 0 0 433 Nov-16 0 302 0 0 490 90 0 0 0 90 0 580 Dec-16 0 218 44 0 494 0 0 0 0 0 0 494 Jan-17 0 269 59 19 647 0 0 0 0 0 0 647 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -100.0% 0.0% 11.0% % of Total3 0.0% 41.5% 9.1% 3.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Notes: 1. Includes all non-OPEC production. 2. Includes production by the other seven OPEC members. 3. As of most recent month. Sources: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 24 E1: World Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)

OECD Non-OECD OPEC World N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1 2014 2,323 122 26 2,472 228 371 598 318 185 503 3,573 2015 1,222 96 17 1,336 202 296 498 348 156 503 2,337 2016 663 82 7 751 180 233 413 299 129 428 1,592 1Q 2016 749 87 10 847 176 256 432 309 141 451 1,729 2Q 2016 491 81 6 578 178 229 407 293 134 427 1,412 3Q 2016 626 80 5 711 185 224 410 296 121 417 1,538 4Q 2016 784 78 6 869 181 224 405 299 117 416 1,690 1Q 2017 1,043 81 14 1,138 184 218 401 304 122 426 1,966 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 39.2% -6.5% 32.3% 34.4% 4.6% -15.0% -7.0% -1.8% -13.4% -5.5% 13.7% May-16 471 84 7 562 183 232 415 294 133 427 1,404 Jun-16 500 81 4 585 178 226 404 292 126 418 1,407 Jul-16 567 84 4 655 182 230 412 295 120 415 1,482 Aug-16 636 81 6 723 188 220 408 292 124 416 1,547 Sep-16 675 76 4 755 186 223 409 300 120 420 1,584 Oct-16 721 71 4 796 178 227 405 305 114 419 1,620 Nov-16 770 81 5 856 183 224 407 297 118 415 1,678 Dec-16 862 82 10 954 182 222 404 294 120 414 1,772 Jan-17 1,001 81 14 1,096 184 216 400 302 120 422 1,918 Feb-17 1,069 88 14 1,171 182 217 399 302 122 424 1,994 Mar-17 1,060 75 13 1,148 185 220 405 307 125 432 1,985 Apr-17 984 72 19 1,075 186 214 400 308 135 443 1,918 May-17 1,001 78 18 1,097 179 223 402 308 128 436 1,935 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 112.5% -7.1% 157.1% 95.2% -2.2% -3.9% -3.1% 4.8% -3.8% 2.1% 37.8% % of Total2 51.7% 4.0% 0.9% 56.7% 9.3% 11.5% 20.8% 15.9% 6.6% 22.5% 100.0%

Notes: 1. Does not include active rigs in the Former Soviet Union and onshore rigs in China. 2. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.

E2: North American Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)

United States Canada North America1 East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Land2 Offshore Total Oil Gas Total 2014 86 453 1,114 156 53 1,861 1,804 57 376 1,905 332 2,238 2015 64 248 395 216 65 977 941 35 193 944 226 1,170 2016 39 117 30 260 84 508 485 23 128 536 100 636 1Q 2016 37 132 32 279 98 546 520 27 163 600 109 709 2Q 2016 32 104 27 206 72 420 397 24 49 382 87 469 3Q 2016 40 104 27 251 73 480 461 18 122 514 87 601 4Q 2016 46 128 36 302 91 585 563 23 179 649 116 765 1Q 2017 60 146 30 407 113 739 718 21 288 879 148 1,027 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 63.1% 10.3% -6.3% 45.8% 15.4% 35.2% 38.1% -21.0% 76.6% 46.5% 35.4% 44.7% May-16 31 103 27 201 70 407 384 24 42 363 86 449 Jun-16 35 100 25 203 72 417 396 21 63 394 86 480 Jul-16 37 102 27 229 72 449 429 20 95 456 88 544 Aug-16 40 104 27 256 71 481 464 17 129 528 82 610 Sep-16 43 107 28 267 76 509 491 18 141 559 91 650 Oct-16 47 120 35 272 87 543 521 23 157 595 105 700 Nov-16 46 132 36 294 91 580 558 22 172 635 117 752 Dec-16 45 133 36 339 95 634 611 23 209 717 126 843 Jan-17 52 140 30 366 103 683 659 24 302 845 140 985 Feb-17 64 147 29 425 114 744 724 20 309 903 150 1,053 Mar-17 65 151 30 431 121 789 770 19 253 888 154 1,042 Apr-17 76 167 33 482 136 853 833 20 109 796 166 962 May-17 76 167 33 485 137 893 871 22 85 800 178 978 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 145.2% 62.1% 22.2% 141.3% 95.7% 119.3% 127.0% -6.4% 102.4% 120.2% 107.0% 117.7% % of Total3 7.8% 17.1% 3.4% 49.6% 14.0% 91.3% 89.1% 2.2% 8.7% 81.8% 18.2% 100.0%

Notes: 1. Excluding Mexico. 2. Includes drilling on inland waterways. 3. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil Page 25

Geographical Specifications

1. The World: OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: North America (Canada, Mexico, US); Europe (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK); and Asia-Pacific (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea). OPEC is comprised of Persian Gulf (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) and non-Persian Gulf countries (Algeria, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela). Non-OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: Former Soviet Union (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan); Asia (including non-OECD Crude Oil Qualities Oceania); and non-Asia (Africa, Middle East, Latin America, and non- Producing API Sulfur OECD Europe). 2. United States: East (PADD I) – New England Country or Gravity Content BBLs/Metric (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Crude Stream Region (@60° F) (%) Tonne Vermont); Central Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Tapis Blend Malaysia 44 0.1 7.910 Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia) and Lower Atlantic (Florida, Ekofisk Blend Norway 43 0.2 7.773 Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia). Mid WTI Texas 40 0.3 7.640 -West (PADD II) – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, GCS Gulf of Mexico 40 0.3 7.640 Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Oklahoma Sweet Oklahoma 40 0.3 7.640 Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. South-Central (PADD III) – Alabama, Kansas Sweet Kansas 40 0.4 7.640 Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico and Texas. North-West Wyoming Sweet Wyoming 40 0.2 7.640 (PADD IV) – Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming. West ELS Alberta 40 0.5 7.640 (PADD V) – Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Brent Blend United kingdom 38 0.8 7.551 Washington. Bonny Light Nigeria 37 0.1 7.506 3. Canada: East is comprised of Ontario, Manitoba, Quebec and the Oman Blend Oman 36 0.8 7.462 Maritime provinces (New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Arabian Light Saudi Arabia 34 1.8 7.373 Scotia, and Prince Edward Island). West is comprised of Alberta, British Minas Indonesia 34 0.1 7.373 Columbia, Saskatchewan and the northern territories (NorthWest Isthmus Mexico 34 1.5 7.373 Territories, Nunavuut, and Yukon). Michigan Sour Michigan 34 1.7 7.373 WTS Texas 33 1.7 7.328 Additional Notes Urals Russia 32 1.7 7.284 1. Petroleum and oil refer to crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs), Tia Juana Light Venezuela 32 1.2 7.284 whereas crude oil refers to its namesake and field condensates. Dubai U.A.E. 31 1.7 7.239 Condensates derived from natural gas processing plants are classified as Lost Hills California 30 0.6 7.194 NGLs. 2. The spot price is for immediate delivery of crude oil or refined Cano Limon Colombia 28 0.6 7.105 products at a specific location. Spot transactions are generally on a cargo Arabian Heavy Saudi Arabia 27 2.8 7.061 by cargo basis. In contrast, a futures price is for delivery of a specified ANS Alaska 27 1.1 7.061 quantity of a commodity at a specified time and place in the future. 3. Oriente Ecuador 25 1.4 6.971 Crude oil sold Free-On-Board (FOB) is made available to the buyer at the Hardisty Heavy Alberta 25 2.1 6.971 loading port at a particular time, with transportation and insurance the Maya Mexico 22 3.3 6.838 responsibility of the buyer. Crude oil sold Cost-Insurance-Freight (CIF) is Kern River California 13 1.0 6.436 priced at a major destination point, with the seller responsible for the transportation and insurance to that point. A “Delivered” transaction is similar to a CIF transaction, except the buyer in the former pays based on the quantity and quality ascertained at the unloading port, whereas in a CIF transaction, the buyer accepts the quantity and quality as determined at the loading port. 4. Processing gain is the volume of which refinery output is greater than crude oil inputs. The difference is due to the processing of crude oil products, which in total have a lower specific gravity than crude oil. 5. Unaccounted for crude oil reconciles the difference between crude input to refineries and the sum of domestic production,net imports/exports, stock changes and documented losses (in the U.S.). 6. Totals may not equal the sum of their parts in the statistical tables due to rounding.

For more information, please contact Dinara Millington at [email protected].

Canadian Energy Research Institute 150, 3512 – 33 Street NW Calgary, AB T2L 2A6

Relevant • Independent • Objective