Edelweiss Investment Research
EARNINGS REVIEW Q4FY18 – EARNINGS GROWTH STILL PATCHY
Sahil Kapoor Shobana Krishnan Chief Market Strategist Economist [email protected] [email protected] June 2018 Overview
Nifty Earnings Remain Elusive ● Nifty Revenue grew by 16% (y-o-y) and Profit grew by 7.6% (y-o-y) in Q4 FY18. Ex- Financials, Nifty Profit grew by 13% (y-o-y). ● Auto, Private Banks, BFSI, Metals and O&G were the top drivers of Nifty Growth. PSU Banks and Pharma were the major draggers on earnings. ● Nifty EPS for FY18 has undergone marginal revision to 455. FY19 EPS has been downgraded by 3% over last 1 year.
BSE 500 Earnings ● BSE-500 Revenue grew by 13% (y-o-y) but Profit de-grew by 8% (y-o-y) in Q4 FY18. Ex Financials, Profit grew by 17% (y-o-y).
● Cyclicals have lead the recovery. But Margins have got compressed across sectors.
Sectoral Overview ● Auto Anc saw stellar revenue growth but margin compression. Cement sector faced pressure due to high input costs. ● NBFCs continue to be in a sweet spot but PSUs, corporate lenders extend losses. Building Materials have also seen muted growth as transition to formal economy is slow. ● Public Capex has been driving infrastructure growth. Private Capex is still weak. Metals continue their dream run on account of lower base and higher realizations. IT Sector Sees more sanguine picture for midcaps.
Coverage Universe ● Among our coverage universe, Top line has grown by 25% and Bottom Line grew by 11%. ● Most of the companies delivered in-line results. More Beats than Miss among our coverage universe. ● Best Earnings Growth : GSPIL, GNA Axle, PNC Infratech; Worst Earnings Growth: CMI, IMFA, Sagar Cements
2 Nifty- Earnings Growth Still Elusive
Nifty Sales Growth for Q4 remains good Nifty Profit Growth Remains Muted in Q4 40.0% 25.0% 21.5% 30.0% 20.0% 14.6% 15.5% 15.4% 15.8% 13.3% 20.0% 15.0% 11.2% 13% 7.4%
10.0% y 10.0% -
3.5% o -
5.0% y 0.0% 0.0% -10.0% -5.0% -0.3% -20.0% -10.0% -6.3% -30.0% -15.0% -13.0% -14.4%
-20.0% -16.3%
Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17
Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
Nifty Profit Growth Nifty Profit Growth ex Financials
Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17
Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
Operating Profit improvement across Nifty However, margin under pressure Nifty (ex financials) (ex financials)
30% 26% 24.2% 23.2% 22.8% 23.6% 20% 21% 22.2% 21.9% 21.6% 21.5% 21.8% 16% 20.4% 20.7% 20.6% 20% 13% 19.7% 9% 10% 4% 4% 5% 0% 2% 0%
-10% -3%
-20% -21%
-30%
Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17
Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
EBIDT Growth EBIDT Margin
Source: Bloomberg. Edelweiss Investment Research Sector Wise Contribution to Nifty
Nifty PAT Growth at 6.5% for FY18
43000 Sector Wise Contributors to Nifty PAT Growth 42000 41000 40000
39000 INR INR Cr. 38000 37000
36000
IT
BFSI
FY17 FY18
Auto
O&G
Power
Metals
Media
Pharma
Disc.
Cement
Telecom
Goods
Staples
PSUBanks
Diversified
Chemicals
Eng & Cap Eng
Consumer - Consumer - Consumer Private Banks Private
Drivers Draggers Source: Bloomberg. Edelweiss Investment Research
• Nifty PAT growth for FY18 came in at paltry 6.5%, unlike the initial expectation of double digit growth.
• PSU Banks and Pharma were the major draggers on earnings. PSU Banks suffered due to higher provisions and recognitions. Pharma as a sector has been facing global as well as domestic headwinds.
• Auto, Private Banks, BFSI, Metals and O&G were the top drivers of Nifty Growth.
Although broad based participation in Nifty earnings growth remains evasive, at least the breadth of the participation has improved Nifty EPS
Expect Nifty profit growth to rebound in FY19 FY17-20E: 18.3% CAGR 20% 693 27% 579 FY08-17: 4.5% CAGR 9% 6% 455 407 413 394 418 FY01-08: 21% CAGR 348 369 315 281 236 251 247 169 184 131 73 78 92
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
FY19E EPS estimate progression – 3% estimate cut since Mar’17
620 27.4 30.0 26.4 26.2 24.9 24.4 23.7 610 22.9 25.0 21.0 20.3 20.3 • Nifty EPS has undergone revision because of 600 20.0 change in constituents.
590 15.0 607 609 • Earnings Downgrades continue to dominate 580 599 601 602 602 10.0 598 595
570 577 579 5.0
560 0.0 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Mar-18 May-18
FY19 EPS (INR) FY19 EPS Growth YoY (%)
Source: Bloomberg. Edelweiss Investment Research BSE 500-Story No Different
BSE-500 Sales Growth Momentum Continues BSE 500 Earnings Growth dragged down by Banks 30% 35% 30% 25% 25% 20% 20% 17% 14% 15%
y 15% 13%
y
- -
o 10%
o
- - y 10% y 5% 5% 0% -5% 0% -10% -8% -5% -15% Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18
Net Sales Net Sales ex Banks Net Profit Net Profit ex Banks
EBIDT Gowth (Ex Financials) have improved EBIDT Margins ex Financials Getting Hit Due to Rising
25% Commodity Prices 21% 20% 20% 15%
19%
10%
y
-
o - y 5% 18%
0% 17%
-5% 16%
-10% 15% Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18
Source: Capitaline. Edelweiss Investment Research A muted quarter for BSE-500 across all Parameters
Proportion of Companies in BSE 500 whose Sales Proportion of Companies in BSE-500 whose Net Profit Growth is >20% Growth > 20%
35% 55%
50% 30% 45%
25% 40%
20% 35% 30% 15% 25% Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 10% Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Total Ex. Banks
Proportion of Companies in BSE 500 (ex Financials) Proportion of Companies in BSE 500 (ex Financials) whose EBIT Growth is >15% whose EBIT Margins are >15%
65% 65%
64% 60% 63% 55% 62% 50% 61% 45% 60% 40% 59%
58% 35%
57% 30% Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18
Source: Capitaline. Edelweiss Investment Research Sectoral Overview
8 Highlights of the Earnings Season
Private Capex still weak IT, Pharma give positive forward guidance
Higher Input Costs, Compressing Margins MSMEs having Cyclicals driving Recovery a tough time
Worsening Macros, Economic Recovery Improving Micros Strengthens Banking especially Corporate NBFCs in a sweet spot lenders continue to struggle
Rural recovery Politically critical year Gaining traction
Key Indications from Earnings Call Auto : CV, Tractor Sales Continue to Grow but Margins Compress
CV, Tractor, 2 Wheeter Continue to Grow, PV still Margins facing Pressure Across Auto Anc. facing pain 35.0%
50% 30.0% 40% 25.0% 30% 20% 20.0% 10% 15.0% 0% -10% 10.0%
-20% 5.0% Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 0.0% CV Domestic Sales Tractor Domestic Sales Bosch Lumax In Minda Corp GNA Axles MSSL 2 wheeler Domestic Sales PV Domestic Sales 201703 201803
Source: CMIE, Capitaline. Edelweiss Investment Research
• Low Base and improving industrial activity have led to CV Sales getting traction. Good Monsoon prediction has bolstered growth projection for tractor sales for this year too
• Auto Sector has been one of the biggest contributor to revenue and earnings in our coverage stock.
• Rising commodity prices are compressing the margins for auto.
• Positive for the Sector- Domestic demand recovery, Prediction of Good Monsoons Negative for the Sector – Rising Commodity Prices
Among our coverage universe, GNA Axle surprised positively in both top line and bottom line growth. Banking: PSU, Corporate Banks Extend Losses, NBFCs in a sweet spot
PSU Banks losses go up to Rs 58,000 cr NBFC % of Market Loan Share Rising 74 835 68 62 58 56 54 46 42 44 -9,642 -8,993 38 -16,696 32
26 INR cr INR
NBFC Banks NBFC Banks -58,607 HFCs CVs
Q4FY17 Q1 FY18 Q2 FY18 Q3 FY18 Q4 FY18 FY14 FY18 FY20
Source: CRISIL Report, Capitaline. Edelweiss Investment Research • Banking Sector Continues to be dragged by losses incurred by PSUs and Corporate lenders like Axis and ICICI banks
• Our coverage universe is more focussed towards NBFCs especially housing finance and cv finance.
• NBFCs market share continue to gain momentum and this quarter saw NPL slowdown. Retail loan growth continues to be robust at 19% for FY18.
• Positive for the Sector- Retail loan growth, Worse is over, NBFCs gaining market share Negative for the Sector – Rise in Funding costs due to surge in bond yields.
Among our coverage universe, PNB HF continued to deliver. Building Materials: Transition to Organized Sector Still Slow
Top Line Growth for Building Material Remains Translating to negative bottom line growth
Subdued 80
20 60
15 40 y
- 20
y o
- 10
- o
- 0 % y %
% y % 5 -20 0 -40
-5 -60 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18
Paints Ceramics Wood Paints Ceramics Wood
Source: CMIE, Capitaline. Edelweiss Investment Research
• Post GST, the transition from informal to formal sector has been slow.
• Also, slow real rural wage growth impacted the sector.
• The outlook for the sector remains robust.
• Positive for the Sector- Rural recovery through good monsoons and MSP hikes Negative for the Sector – Slow Transition to formal sector
Among our coverage universe, Visaka Industries provided solid results Cement: Rising Costs Causing Pressures to Bottom Line
Volume Uptick and High Realization However, Input Costs are Rising 1000 90.0 26.0 900 80.0 24.0 800 70.0 22.0 700 60.0 20.0 600 50.0
500 % 18.0 INR 40.0
400 16.0 Mn tonne Mn 300 30.0 14.0 200 20.0 100 10.0 12.0 0 0.0 10.0 Q4FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q4FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18
Average EBITDA/t (INR) Cement Sales Volume (Mn tonne)- RHS Power & Fuel Costs as % Revenues Freight & forwarding Costs as % Revenues
Source: Capitaline. Edelweiss Investment Research
• Cement Companies have seen volume uptick on lower base and rising demand.
• Average realizations has picked up as prices have seen moderate rise.
• However with pet coke ban and rising freight costs have dented cement companies profitability.
• Positive for the Sector- Revival in Housing Construction, Record Road Construction Orders Negative for the Sector – Rising Capacity utilization will cause downward pressures on prices, high input costs.
Among our coverage universe, Birla Corporation surprised positively the most in terms of profit growth. Cap Goods : Public Investment Still Driving Capex Recovery Cycle
Railway Capex is estimated to be up by 22% in FY19 Private New Projects Announcement at 4 year low
600 22% 1,600 10000 9% 1,400 500 9000 1,200 8000 400 1,000 7000 300 800
6000 INR Bln INR 600 Bln INR 200 5000
400 INR BillionINR 100 4000 200 3000 0 0 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 RE FY19 BE 2000 Construction of new lines Gauge Conversion Line Doubling 1000 0 Electrification Total -RHS FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Source: CMIE, Capitaline. Edelweiss Investment Research
• Record orders in Road and Railways has been driving investment growth in India. Also, momentum was seen in thermal projects ordering.
• However, private investment continues to be weak. According L&T concall, private capex would take another 2 years to recover. It can also be seen in credit to industry which is only at 1%. Capacity utilization at macro level is at 74% below the 2011 high of 81%.
• Positive for the Sector- Public Capex Negative for the Sector – Private Capex weak. High number of stalled projects.
Among our coverage universe, KEC International has delivered in line results. Infra : Road Companies Continue with their Golden Phase
Order Book Size of Major Infra Companies ex L&T Translating to higher Revenue Visibility 3.9 yrs 180000 4.50 39% 160000 4.00 3.50 140000 3.00 120000 2.50
100000 yrs 2.00 INR cr. INR 80000 1.50 60000 1.00 40000 0.50 - 20000 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 0 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY18E Revenue Visibility
Source: Capitaline. Edelweiss Investment Research
• Our universe of top 12 Infrastructure companies (except L&T) have reported a order book growth of 40% in FY18 to INR 1,72,000 cr. The growth in order book was 22% in FY17.
• Revenue visibility at the end of FY18 was 3.9 years, which was highest in last decade.
• Overall Debt / Equity of top 12 companies came below 1x in FY18. First time since FY10.
• Positive for the Sector- Record Road Construction Orders, Public Capex Negative for the Sector – Funding Requirement of about Rs 60,000 cr from bank which may prove to be a challenge, GST denting revenues
Among our coverage universe, PNC infratech surprised positively the most in terms of profit growth. IT: More Sanguine Guidance for Midcaps
Software Exports Continue to Grow Net Revenues Consistently Rising for Midcap IT 19.0 10.0% 2000 1800 18.5 8.0% 1600 6.0% 18.0 1400 4.0% 1200
17.5 Y - 1000
2.0% o
- INR cr. INR 17.0 Y 800
USD Billion USD 0.0% 600 16.5 -2.0% 400 200 16.0 -4.0% 0 15.5 -6.0% Hexaware KPIT Tech. Mindtree MphasiS NIIT Tech. Persistent Sys Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Tech.
Net Software Exports (USD Billion) Y-o-Y Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18
Source: CMIE, Capitaline. Edelweiss Investment Research
• Net Revenues continued to be on upswing. It was loer than expected for large caps but mid-caps continued with their outperformance.
• Most of the companies gave positive forward guidance too
• Costs rationalization lead to efficiency gains
• Positive for the Sector- Positive forward Guidance Negative for the Sector – Global Protectionism Wave
Among our coverage universe, Quick Heal came up with in line results. Metals: Higher Realization, Low Base Effects Drive Higher Profits
Steel Volume Growth Muted due to high capacity Also, low base driving up the profitability utilization driving prices up 4000 800% 3500 709% 700% 30 25.0 3000 600% 2500 20 15.0 500%
10 2000 Y 5.0 -
1500 400% o
0 -
Y
% YoY % YoY % -5.0 Cr. INR -10 1000 300% 500 -20 -15.0 200% 0 -30 -25.0 -500 94% 186% 100%
-1000 0%
Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17
Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Mar-15 Tata Steel SAIL JSW Steel Jindal Steel GSPIL
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
Production (LHS) Average Prices (RHS) Mar-17 Mar-18 % Y-o-Y-RHS
Source: Bloomberg, Capitaline. Edelweiss Investment Research
• Most of the Steel Companies are operating at 75-80% capacity utilization. This has led to lower volume growth in the market.
• This in effect has led to higher prices and thereby higher realizations. The story seems to extend to Ferrous too.
• To add on, base effects are also favourable for these companies.
• Positive for the Sector- Domestic Public Capex, Shutting Down of Capacities in China Negative for the Sector – Uncertainty regarding imposition of US import tariffs on Steel and Aluminium and impact on domestic prices
Among our coverage universe, GSPIL has lead the pack in terms of earnings growth Coverage Universe
18 Coverage Universe: Earnings Review
Top Line Beat Estimates, Profit Growth in Line • Among our coverage universe, Motherson Sumi has 31% the biggest market cap. Low profit growth in MSSL has 25% hampered market cap weighted profit growth of coverage universe.
13.30% 11% 11.40% • Building Material and Consumption Drag. Infra drives earnings growth. 0%
Equi Weighted Market Cap Equi Weighted Market Cap Equi Weighted Market Cap Weighted Weighted Weighted Net Sales Net Profit PBIDT Growth
Cyclicals lead Earnings, Consumption Still a Drag 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600
INR Cr. INR 3500 3400 3300 3200 3100 201703 Building Material Consumption Auto Anc BFSI Capital Goods Cement Chemicals Infra Metals 201803
Drivers Draggers Source: Capitaline. Edelweiss Investment Research 19 Q4 FY18 Earnings: Most Coverage Stocks Deliver
800%
Negative Top Line Growth, Positive Godawari Power Positive Top Line Growth, Positive Bottom Line Growth Bottom Line Growth
600%
Maharashtra Seamless
Borosil
400% Birla Corp Lumax Industries Heritage Rico Auto Asian Gra Balaji Amines Kirloskar Brothers ABFRL Jamna Auto Ujjivan PNC KNR 200% Deepak GNA Axle Jindal SRF
Net Profit Net JMC KEC Ratnamani Finolex Industries Visaka PNB PSP Projects Crompton Shankara 0% Manappuram Parag Sadbhav Dilip Philips Carbon Vinati Motherson IMFA CMI -200% CUB Sanghi Sudarshan Mayur SHK Positive Top Line Growth, Negative Bharat Forge Bottom Line Growth Centuryply
Sagar Cements -400% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Revenue Low Base Effects aided recovery for cyclicals.
Source: Edelweiss Investment Research 20 Annual Earnings : Most in Line With Expectations
1500%
Kirloskar Brothers
1000%
Rico Auto Centuryply
Shankara Indian Terrain 500% Lumax Industries PNC Deepak Can Fin Crompton ABFRL GNA Axle JMC Sanghi JK KNR Philips Carbon Vinati CMI
Visaka Jindal Dilip PNB PSP Projects Net Profit Net Motherson Finolex 0% Shriram GIC Jamna Auto SHK Mayur Balaji Amines Maharashtra Seamless IMFA Birla Corp Ratnamani Bharat Forge Asian Gra KEC Manappuram SRF CUB Sudarshan -500% Borosil Sadbhav
Sagar Cements
-1000% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Revenue
Source: Edelweiss Investment Research Beat Estimates In-line Miss Revenue Beat PAT Miss Revenue Miss PAT Beat 21 Valuations: P/E versus ROE
Low ROE, High 1 year forward P/E IMFA High ROE, High 1 year forward P/E 50 ABFRL
45
40 Shankara Vinati Organics Parag Milks 35 Crompton Greaves Ratnamani Borosil Century Ply 30 Quick Heal Sudarshan Chemical Lumax Deepak Nitrite SHK Motherson Jamna Auto 25 Sadbhav Sanghi Ind Zee Learn GNA Asian
P/E FY19E (x) FY19E P/E Ujjivan Finolex ind PSP 20 Sagar Cements Mayur Uniquoters Dilip Buildcon SRF Phillips Carbon JMC 15 Kirloskar PNB Avanti Feeds Rico Auto PNC KNR Birla Corp Shriram Transport Visaka Can Fin 10 GIC Bharat Forge CMI S P Apparels Jindal Stainles Maharashtra Seamless 5 Heritage Foods Trident Godawari Power High ROE, Low 1 year forward P/E Low ROE, Low 1 year Manappuram JK paper forward P/E 0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 RoE FY18 (%)
• The chart does not differentiate between Cyclicals and Non Cyclicals.
• ROE> 20% is considered high and I year forward P/E > 20% is considered high. Source: Edelweiss Investment Research
22 Coverage Stocks: Q4FY18 Earnings Review
BFSI
GIC Housing Finance Ltd Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
NII+OI 110 122 Miss 100 10%
GNPA 2.4% 2.3% Top managements are chasing for recovery & up-gradation and hence they have set up monthly and bio-monthly recovery & up-gradation target. As a consequence of this, asset quality improved substantially and targeting further improvement in next 2-3 quarters. Cost of Credit
Profit 60 57 In-line 47 28%
Ujjivan Financial Services Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
NII+OI 308 265 178 73%
GNPA 3.6% 0.3% Ujjivan Financial Services Ltd. (UFS) reported significant jump in net profit on back of healthy growth in loan & advances and significant surge in net interest margin in its Q4FY18 financial results. Cost of Credit
Profit 65 34 19.4 235%
Can Fin Homes Ltd Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
NII+OI 144 153 Miss 135 7%
GNPA 0.4% 0.2 During the quarter, top management of the company was busy in structural change which dented th growth. as a consequence of this, Company miss our guidance Cost of Credit
Profit 75 81 Miss 71 6%
23 Coverage Stocks: Q4FY18 Earnings Review
BFSI
PNB Housing Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
NII+OI 553 554 In-line 398 39%
GNPA 0.3% 0.2% PNB Housing Finance (PNBHF) reported yet another strong quarter in its Q4FY18 financial results. PNBHF reported 50% YoY growth in AUM to INR 623bn, primarily driven by CF, CTL & LAP. Cost of Credit
Profit 219 230 In-line 152 44%
Shriram Transport Finance Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
NII+OI 1979 1433 38% Shriram Transport Finance Corporation Limited (SHTF) reported a very healthy growth in GNPA 9% 8% revenue, operating profit, AUM while net profit de-grew marginally due to higher provisions in its Q4FY18 financial results. We have estimated 18% growth in AUM while it came 21% YoY on Cost of Credit back of significant surge in rural growth.
Profit 145 In-line 150 -3%
City Union Bank Ltd Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
NII+OI 488 520 Miss 436 12% Net Interest Income (NII) increased by 18% YoY to INR 368cr on back of 17% YoY growth in GNPA 3.0% 2.8% loans & advances and marginal improvement in net interest margin (NIM). CUB registered 16bps YoY expansion in NIM to 4.36% on lower cost of funds. Net Revenue increased by 12% Cost of Credit YoY to INR 488cr, slightly below due to moderate growth in non-interest income.
Profit 152 151 In-line 129 18%
24 Coverage Stocks: Q4FY18 Earnings Review
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Bharat Forge Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights
Growth in topline driven by strong demand scenario in both domestic Revenue 1467 1520 In-line 1126 30% 1391 5% and international CV market
EBITDA 418 436 In-line 320 31% 416 0% Operating leverage helped to attain healthy EBITDA margins
One time write of of INR 133 cr of a investment in a project in Oil and Net Profit 100 240 In-line 208 -52% 228 -56% Gas business done in FY11-FY12 period
EBITDA Margin 28% 29% 28% 30% Otherwise our PAT is in line Gross Profit Margin 65% 65% 65% 64%
Jamna Auto Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights
Revenue 597 520 Beat 383 56% 470 27% Growth in topline driven by strong in domestic MHCV market
EBITDA 89 70 Beat 60 50% 61 46% Operating leverage helped to attain healthy EBITDA margins
Net Profit 47 39 Beat 35 33% 32 47%
EBITDA Margin 15% 14% 16% 13% Gross Profit Margin 35% 36% 37% 36%
Motherson Sumi Systems Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights
Acquisition and healthy growth in wiring harness business drove the Revenue 15408 15778 In-line 11284 37% 14398 7% growth Margins impacted owing to rise in input cost and set up owing to on EBITDA 1500 1498 In-line 1241 21% 1259 19% going capex of SMP's 3 mega plants
Net Profit 758 681 Miss 706 7% 562 35%
EBITDA Margin 10% 9% 11% 9% Gross Profit Margin 5% 4% 6% 4%
25 Coverage Stocks: Q4FY18 Earnings Review
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Lumax Industries Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights
Growth in topline driven by healthy scenario in domestic PV market Revenue 559 443 Beat 385 45% 371 51% and change in product mix towards high realisation LED lights
EBITDA 46 38 Beat 26 81% 33 41% Sharp rise in input cost strained margins growth by some extent
INR 6.6 cr additional tax paid this quarter as Sanand plant Net Profit 18 23 In-line 8 121% 18 -2% capitalisation tax. If adjusted, PAT would be in line
EBITDA Margin 8% 8% 7% 9% Gross Profit Margin 31% 36% 31% 37%
GNA Axle Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights
Growth in topline driven by strong demand scenario in both domestic Revenue 205 164 Beat 126 62% 167 22% and international CV and off road equipment markets
EBITDA 30 26 Beat 17 74% 27 10% Sharp rise in input cost impacted margins
Net Profit 16 12 Beat 6 169% 13 30%
EBITDA Margin 14% 16% 13% Gross Profit Margin 34% 38% 38%
Rico Auto Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights
Growth in topline driven by healthy offtake from both domestic and Revenue 332 320 Beat 265 26% 303 10% international business
EBITDA 39 33 Beat 20 88% 31 25% High operating leverage helped to scale up EBITDA margins
Net Profit 19 14 Beat 5 249% 13 43%
EBITDA Margin 12% 10% 8% 10% Gross Profit Margin 54% 52% 48% 43%
26 Coverage Stocks: Q4FY18 Earnings Review
Capital Goods
KEC International Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights
Growth was primarily led by improvement in execution in T&D Revenue 3664 3317 Beat 2849 29 2405 52 including SAE, civil, and railway segment.
EBITDA 370 348 Beat 301 23 244 52
Adj PAT came in at INR 196cr, 35% higher YoY on higher EBITDA and Net Profit 196 167 Beat 127 54 112 75 flat interest expenses on yoy basis.
EBITDA Margin 10 10 11 10 Gross Profit Margin 24 31 28
Kirloskar Brothers Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights
"Delays in execution of large irrigation/powerprojects led to lower Revenue 615 635 Miss 575 7 442 39 growth in projects business."
EBITDA 60 92 Miss 41 46 23 161
Net Profit 33 41 Miss 17 94 9 267
EBITDA Margin 10 14 7 5 Gross Profit Margin 41 43 41
27 Coverage Stocks: Q4FY18 Earnings Review
Cement
Birla Corporation Ltd. Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights
Birla Corporation Limited (BCorp) reported substantial rise in its Q4FY18 Revenue 1651 1618 Beat 1437 15% 1389 19% financial results on back of robust realization and volume growth.
EBITDA 251 208 Beat 235 7% 139 81%
Net Profit 131 27 Beat 108 21% -22 -695%
EBITDA Margin 15% 13% 16% 10% Gross Profit Margin 87% 86% 85%
Sagar Cements Ltd. Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights Cement sales volume increased by 20%/13% YoY/QoQ to 0.77mn Revenue 295 299 In-line 234 26% 249 18% tonne and realization per tonne increased by 5%/4% YoY/QoQ to INR 3,825 per tonne EBITDA 39 41 In-line 26 50% 32 22%
Net Profit 5 9 Miss -3 -267% 3 67%
EBITDA Margin 13% 14% 11% 13% Gross Profit Margin 87% 85% 88% 85%
Sanghi Industries Ltd. Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights Company registered significant drop in cement sales volume but robust jump in blended realisation protected revenue. SNGI reported Revenue 351 306 Beat 280 25% 247 42% 3% decrease in EBITDA due to elevated Raw Material (RM) and Freight and Forwarding (F&F) cost. EBITDA 41 71 Miss 62 -34% 42 -2%
Net Profit 19 35 Miss 32 -41% 26 -27%
EBITDA Margin 12% 23% 22% 17% Gross Profit Margin 91% 92% 94%
28 Coverage Stocks: Q4FY18 Earnings Review
Chemicals
Deepak Nitrite Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights
Basic chemicals outgrew expectations on account of high demand Revenue 393 360 Beat 325 20.7% 371 6% growth as well as China issues
EBITDA 49 50 In-line 39 24.4% 52 -6%
Net Profit 20 20 In-line 17 17.8% 20 0%
Lower operating margins led by higher material costs relative to sales. EBITDA Margin 12% 14% 12% 37 bps 14% -157 bps However, the impact on net income was offset by INR 6 cr of other income. Gross Profit Margin 20% 17% 295 bps 20% -12 bps
Mayur Uniquoters Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights
Revenue 136 NA 121 12% 138 -2%
EBITDA 34 NA 28 20% 36 -5%
Net Profit 24 NA 19 29% 22 11%
EBITDA Margin 25% 24% 155 bps 26% -94 bps Gross Profit Margin 42% 43% -62 bps 40% 166 bps
Balaji Amines Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights
Higher than expected growth of 33% y-o-y owing to higher realisation Revenue 257 215 Beat 193 33% 219 17% from exports and better utilisation levels across derivatives Gross margins fell 355 bps with crude prices up 13% sequentially. Hotels EBITDA 47 50 Miss 38 23% 51 -7% business generated negative operating margin of 4%. Tax outgo for Q4FY18 was significantly low at 16% compared to 36.5% Net Profit 33 28 Beat 18 88% 28 18% in 9MFY18.
EBITDA Margin 18% 23% 20% -153 bps 23% -487 bps Gross Profit Margin 43% 53% -953 bps 47% -355 bps
29 Coverage Stocks: Q4FY18 Earnings Review
Chemicals
Philips Carbon Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights
Revenue 753 614 Beat 550 37 612 23 Sales driven by pass through of higher CBFS in rubber carbon black
EBITDA per tonne increased 18% YoY owing to favourable product mix EBITDA 102 103 In-line 83 23 97 5 and supply tightness in rubber carbon black
Net Profit 74 55 Beat 50 48 56 32 Higher EBITDA per tonne lead to better profitability at the net level
EBITDA Margin 14% 17% 15% 16%
Sudarshan Chemical Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights
Revenue 285 246 Beat 248 15 283 1 Sales beat driven by 23% growth in the Fragrances business
Raw material disruptions in the quarter lead to significant squeeze in EBITDA 32 35 Miss 37 -27 58 -53 gross margins Adjusted Net profit was helped by INR 15 cr of other income which Net Profit 24 22 Beat 27 -12 37 -35 included a significant portion of provisioning reversals which were taken for PFW restructuring
SRF Ltd Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights
Revenue 1,612 1518 Beat 1,326 22 1,397 15 Sales uptick was driven by better than expected by growth in PFB
Better than expected sales growth offset by lower than expected EBITDA 279 277 In-line 234 19 232 20 gross margins
Net Profit 124 127 In-line 129 -4 131 -6 Net profit was largel in-line with our estimates
Vinati Organics Ltd. Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights
Revenue 213 192.2 Beat 195.0 9 186 15 Sales uptick was driven by better than expected by growth in PFB
Better than expected sales growth offset by lower than expected EBITDA 65 55 Beat 62.6 4 50 30 gross margins
Net Profit 52 33 Beat 41.0 27 32 64 Net profit was largel in-line with our estimates
30 Coverage Stocks: Q4FY18 Earnings Review
Consumption
Indian Terrain Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights Q4FY17 sales were restated lower than our estimates resulting in a Revenue 108 125 Miss 89 21% 95 14% miss Although discounting reduced, margins were lower than estimates EBITDA 14 18 Miss 11 34% 13 12% due to higher marketing spends
Net Profit 7 12 Miss 7 1% 7 0% Depreciation and interest costs were slightly higher than estimates
EBITDA Margin 13% 14% 12% 13%
ABFRL Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights Madura brands clocked impressive ~8% SSG and 12% growth but Revenue 1754 1775 Miss 1625 8% 1855 -5% Pantaloons was slightly subdued Strong margin improvement across brands on account of lower EBITDA 164 137 Beat 115 43% 138 19% discounting and cost control
Net Profit 44 33 Beat 22 100% 35 26% PAT improved due to strong operational performance
EBITDA Margin 9% 8% 7% 7%
Crompton Greaves Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights
Revenue 1126 1252 Below 1046 7.6% 938 20.0% The sales growth was mainly from electric consumer durable segment
The Go to market strategy to continue for the company and with the EBITDA 164 165 In-line 129 27.1% 116 41.4% transition from wholesales to retail would impact the business in near term. Going forward CGCEL focus on operational efficiency, innovations & Net Profit 103 105 In-line 78 32.1% 69 49.3% new product launches to continue The managemnet expected to maintain higher bottomline growth EBITDA Margin 14.6% 13.2% 12.3% 12.4% against topline with product premiumisation and cost optimisation.
31 Coverage Stocks: Q4FY18 Earnings Review
Consumption Borosil Glassworks Ltd. Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights Revenues driven by healthy performance from scientific-ware - on Revenue 88 84 Above 75 17.3% 79 11.4% account of strong performance from the Klasspack business. The company has improved gross margin; focus on storage segment EBITDA 11 9 Above -1 NA 13 -15.4% and improvement in Hopewell’s product quality to improving it's margin going forward Management expects healthy growth in coming quarter with more Net Profit 15 10 Above 9 66.7% 13 15.4% focus on modern retail, ecommerce sales channels. EBITDA Margin 12.5% -1.3% 16.5%
Asian Granito Ltd Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights The company has shown robust volume growth however the tile Revenue 392 357 Above 333 17.7% 264 48.5% realisations have been down due to correction in GVT prices. Going Forward the sales growth is expected to come from the GVT EBITDA 36 37 In-line 34 5.9% 36 0.0% and Quartz segment. AGL to focus on the B2C segment and to futher increase it's Net Profit 17 12 Above 15 13.3% 13 30.8% distribution network.
Shankara Building Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights Shankara clocked very strong 27% growth driven by growth across Revenue 761 647 Beat 600 27% 624 22% segments Margin improvement in retail was stong; channel and enterprise EBITDA 55 54 In Line 46 20% 41 34% margins disappointed
Net Profit 22 25 Miss 19 16% 18 22% High depreciation and interest costs resulted in slight PAT miss
EBITDA Margin 7% 8% 8% 7%
Century Plyboards Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights Growth was lower than expectations in the plywood and MDF Revenue 544 640 Miss 489 11% 510 7% segment Pricing pressure in MDF and plywood and forex losses has led to lower EBITDA 84 100 Miss 84 0% 88 -5% margins PAT growth muted due to one-off in other income and high Net Profit 36 52 Miss 56 -36% 47 -23% depreciation costs
EBITDA Margin 15% 16% 17% 17% 32 Coverage Stocks: Q4FY18 Earnings Review
Consumption Visaka Industries Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights Reported highest ever Q4 EBITDA margin in Building Product segment Revenue 260 244 Above 254 2.4% 242 7.4% on account of improvement in realisations & significant reduction in operating cost.
EBITDA 36 30 Above 31 16.1% 34 5.9% Yarn business displayed strong growth & margin improvement .
Increase in polyester fiber is not a concern as due to stron demand Net Profit 15 13 Above 10 50.0% 14 7.1% the company can easily pass on the raw material price Focus on Solar roofing - ATUM is expected to be high asset turn & high ROCE business & expected to contribute 10-12% of Visaka's roofing EBITDA Margin 13.8% 12.3% 12.2% 14.0% business going forward. The company is aggressively focusing on advertisement and promotions to drive this segments sales.
Finolex Industries Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights The Company has reported a decent volume growth in the pipes & Revenue 809 962 Below 888 -8.9% 723 11.9% fittings business . Finolex expects volume to pick up from the capacity addition in PVC pipes & fittings & from the CPVC segment. EBITDA 188 159 Above 179 5.0% 113 66.4% PVC resin segment to remain flat in the coming years. The company reported decent 5% growth in sales in FY18 was majorly on account of 20.5% volume growth in the pipe & fitting segment and Net Profit 121 98 Above 123 -1.6% 69 75.4% 10% in PVC resin segment. Finolex expected to continue healthy volume growth going forward.
EBITDA Margin 23.2% 16.5% 20.2% 15.6%
J K Paper Ltd. Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights Lower than expected topline was due to lower trading sales volumes Revenue 752 793 Miss 699 7.6% 791 -4.9% and maintenance shutdown for 10 days in Q4FY18 for Odisha unit Higher than projected profitability is due to a) higher realization vis-à- vis stable raw-material cost, b) narrowing of difference in domestic EBITDA 168 157 Beat 143 17.5% 154 8.9% and export realization from 8-10% to ~3% due to rising global paper prices, and c) lower employee cost Beats estimate due to higher than projected operating profit and Net Profit 74 64 Beat 56 30.7% 70 5.4% lower than estimated interest cost
EBITDA Margin 22.3 19.9 20.4 188 bps 19.5 282 bps
Gross Profit Margin 46 NA 45 66 bps 43 286 bps 33 Coverage Stocks: Q4FY18 Earnings Review
Infrastructure KNR Constructions Ltd. Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights Topline grew by 30% YoY to INR 624 cr after a subdued Q2 and Q3 on Revenue 624 506 Beat 482 29% 433 44% back of strong execution.
KNR has reported an industry leading EBITDA margin of 19.3% for 4QFY18 which is also the all time high level for the company, on back EBITDA 121 115 Beat 72.2 67% 98 23% of lower construction costs as most projects are nearing completion. This further percolated to an industry high PAT margin of 12.8% on back of lower tax expense for the quarter.
Net Profit 80 75 Beat 52 52% 66 21% EBITDA Margin 19.3 21.6 15.0 22.7 Gross Profit Margin 34 34 28 36
PNC Infratech Ltd. Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights Revenue came at INR 759 cr, a 116% growth YoY (excluding bonus Revenue 759 714 Beat 351 116% 472 61% 100% YoY growth). Strong growth in top line after 6 quarters of de- growth/flat performance is encouraging.
The company reported EBITDA margins of 21.2% (13.7% excluding EBITDA 161 78 Beat 47 239% 66 143% bonus and one-time cost adjustments), a 670 bps improvement to reach at historic high levels.
Net Profit 112 53 Beat 34 231% 93 20% EBITDA Margin 21.2 10.9 13.53 14.03 Gross Profit Margin 35 34 33 35
JMC Projects (India) Ltd Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights DBL reported standalone topline growth of 46% YoY to INR 2,558cr in Revenue 723 790 Miss 690 5% 707 2% Q4FY18 as projects won earlier across the road and mining segment started showing traction However, the company reported EBITDA margin of 11.5% in quarter four which is highest in history. For the full year of FY18, JMC reported EBITDA 87 81 Beat 59 48% 70 25% topline growth of 18% to IR 2,756 cr (against our expectations of INR 2,823 cr) and historical high EBITDA margins of 10.3% Net Profit 34 21 Beat 18 90% 23.81 44% EBITDA Margin 12.09 10.25 8.5 9.9 Gross Profit Margin
34 Coverage Stocks: Q4FY18 Earnings Review
Infrastructure
Dilip Buildcon Ltd Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights Higher operational expenses and material cost led EBIDTA margin to Revenue 2558 2233 Beat 1750 27.6% 1942 31.7% shrink down by 170 Bps to 18.5%.
EBITDA in absolute terms grew by 33% YoY to INR 473cr aided by a EBITDA 473 436 Beat 355 22.8% 345 37.1% strong topline growth.
DBL reported standalone topline growth of 46% YoY to INR 2,558cr in Net Profit 217 224 Miss 196 14.3% 165 32.0% Q4FY18 as projects won earlier across the road and mining segment started showing traction
EBITDA Margin 18.5 19.5 20.3 17.8 Gross Profit Margin 21.3 25.0 25.7 23.1
Sadbhav Engineering Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights SEL’s standaolne revenue reported 7% YoY topline growth to INR 1,104cr. However, on a like-to-like basis, the company’s topline grew Revenue 1104 1216 Miss 1033 6.9% 935 18.1% by 20% YoY to INR 1240 cr which is higher than our expectations of INR 1216 cr EBITDA 124 141 Miss 110 13.2% 106 17.4%
Net Profit 70 87 Miss 68 2.5% 62 13.1%
EBITDA Margin 11.2 11.6 10.6 11.3
PSP Projects Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights The revenue recognised for Q4FY18 from the Surat Diamond Bourse Revenue 264 201 Beat 162 63.0% 171 54.4% Project is INR 53cr which is above our expectation of INR 40cr for the said period. EBITDA margin for FY18 came at 13.92% and was lower on YoY basis as PSP executed pure play labour supply contracts worth INR 80 cr in the EBITDA 36 27.9 Beat 33 9.1% 27 33.3% previous year and that has artificially boosted the EBITDA margins for FY17
Net Profit 23 16 Beat 20 15.0% 15 53.3%
EBITDA Margin 13.6 13.8 21 16
35 Coverage Stocks: Q4FY18 Earnings Review
Metals & Mining Ratnamani Metals Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights Strong growth from carbon steel business, from volume as well as avg Revenue 619 519 Beat 388 60 536 15 realisation perspective. EBITDA below expectation due to growth of carbon steel (lower EBITDA 93 126 Miss 68 37 80 16 margin business)
Net Profit 57 60 In-line 39 46 45 27 Lower EBITDA margin dragged down the PAT
EBITDA Margin 15 24 18 15 Gross Profit Margin 35 38 35
Maharashtra Seamless Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights Revenue growth was due to ~40% realisation growth of seamless Revenue 631 440 Beat 453 39 564 12 tubes as well as ERW EBITDA/Tonne for seamless tubes growth helped the growth of overall EBITDA 124 96 Beat 72 72 61 103 EBITDA
Net Profit 88 75 Beat 39 126 39 126 Higher EBITDA led to higher profitability
EBITDA Margin 20 22 16 Gross Profit Margin 40 36
Jindal Stainless Steel Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights
Revenue 2254 2321 Miss 2043 10 2439 -8 Sales marginally lower than expected due to lower volumes
EBITDA was lower than our expectation by INR 28 crs due to lower EBITDA 286 314 Miss 238 20 325 -12 than expected volume
Net Profit 96 138 Miss 60 60 134 -28
EBITDA Margin 13 14 12 13 Gross Profit Margin 36 37 34
36 Coverage Stocks: Q4FY18 Earnings Review
Metals & Mining Godawari Power Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights volume growth strong, running at healthy utilisation of >80% in pellets Revenue 623 652 Miss 454 37 574 8 & sponge iron
EBITDA 153 150 In-line 75 104 124 23
Net Profit 89 60 Beat 11 711 64 39 Interest costs remain high
EBITDA Margin 25 23 17 22 Gross Profit Margin 42 36 38
IMFA Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights Higher than expected volume, but lower realisation lead to lower Revenue 443 492 Miss 588 -25 484 -8 sales Lower sales realisation led to lower EBITDA/Tonne, dropping EBITDA EBITDA 66 167 Miss 273 -76 139 -53 below our expectations
Net Profit 1 94 Miss 174 -99 75 -99 Lower Realisations led to lower profitability
EBITDA Margin 15 34 46 29 Gross Profit Margin 61 61 71 38
CMI Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Q3 FY18 % Q-o-Q Key Highlights
Revenue 160 161 In-line 134 19 134 19 Revenue in line with our estimates
Higher Raw material and transportation cost impacted EBITDA EBITDA 21 24 Miss 20 5 19 11 marginally
Net Profit 7 10 Miss 24 -71 7 3 Interest cost continues to remain high
EBITDA Margin 13 15 15 14 Gross Profit Margin 20 24 25 24
37 Coverage Stocks: Q4FY18 Earnings Review
BFSI
Mannapuram Finance Ltd Q4 FY18 A Q4 FY18 E Q4 FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
NII+OI 633 624 In-line 608 4% The growth in net revenue and AUM was in line with our estimates, however, the net profit was GNPA 0.70% 2% below from our estimates due to higher operating expenses and provisions. The company reported net revenue growth of 3% Y-o-Y to INR 633cr as compared to INR 615cr in Q4FY17. Cost of Credit Operating profit came at INR 319cr down by 8% Y-o-Y due to higher employee cost
Profit 183 195 201 -9%
38 Coverage Stocks: Annual Earnings Review
BFSI
GIC Housing Finance Ltd FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
NII+OI 416 431 Miss 332 25%
GNPA 2.4% 2.5% In-line 2.3% We expect loans and advances to grow 22-25% over FY18-20E on back of improving demand of affordable housing aided by strengthening distribution network. Cost of Credit
Profit 186 181 In-line 146 27%
Ujjivan Financial FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
NII+OI 976 949 855 14% Management guided that MFI loans will grow 18-20% over next few years and non-MFI loans GNPA 3.6% 4.8% 3.7% will grow at faster pace and will contribute one-third in next three years. We have projected 26% YoY growth in loans & advances to INR 121bn over FY18-20E. We have estimated net profit to surge from INR 7cr to INR 339cr in FY20E on back of reduction in credit cost and marginal Cost of Credit improvement in C/I ratio. Profit 7 12 Miss 208 -97%
Can Fin Homes Ltd FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
NII+OI 566 575 In-line 469 21% Loan growth in Q1FY19 is likely to remain moderate due to election in primary market but post GNPA 0.4% 0.2% that management is expecting to grow at healthy pace. Loan book target for FY19E and FY22E is INR 195bn and 400bn at 24% and 26% CAGR over FY18-22E respectively on back of Cost of Credit acceleration branch expansion.
Profit 302 307 In-line 236 28%
39 Coverage Stocks: Annual Earnings Review
BFSI
PNB Housing Finance Ltd FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
NII+OI 1986 1897 1264 57%
GNPA 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% Management guided to grow at 1.7x-1.8x industry growth. Management is considering to raise the equity capital either in next 4-5 quarters. Cost of Credit
Profit 830 818 524 58%
Shriram Transport Finance FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
NII+OI 6982 6468 5643 24%
GNPA 9% 9% 8% SHTF has reported 22% growth in loans and advances and hence on book proportion of AUM increased to 84%. AUM growth is likely to accelerate, therefore management is considering for equity raising in FY19. However AUM growth guidance for FY19E is 18%. Cost of Credit
Profit 1568 1641 Miss 1257 25%
City Union Bank Ltd FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
NII+OI 1962 1994 Miss 1683 17%
GNPA CUB has maintained its double-digit growth in loans & advances with 17% CAGR over FY11-18 and in FY18 it grew 17% YoY to INR 27,853cr. Management guided to grow 18-20% next year on back of one of the best loans and advances mix which helps the bank to grow at rapid pace. Cost of Credit
Profit 592 591 In-line 503 18%
40 Coverage Stocks: Annual Earnings Review
BFSI
Mannapuram Finance Ltd FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
NII+OI 2449 2440 In-line 2240 9%
GNPA 0.7% 2% We expect profitability to improve on back of reduction in C/I ratio and credit cost. Cost of Credit
Profit 670 682 756 -11%
41 Coverage Stocks: Annual Earnings Review
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Bharat Forge FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Growth in topline driven by strong demand scenario in both domestic and international CV Revenue 8358 8123 In-line 6396 31% market
EBITDA 1723 1759 In-line 1251 38% Operating leverage helped to attain healthy EBITDA margins
One time write of of INR 95 cr of a investment in a project in Oil and Gas business done in FY11- Net Profit 754 910 Miss 698 8% FY12 period
EBITDA Margin 21% 22% 20% Gross Profit Margin 61% 62% 62%
Jamna Auto FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 1738 1520 Beat 1300 34% Growth in topline driven by strong in domestic MHCV market
EBITDA 238 204 Beat 183 30% Operating leverage helped to attain healthy EBITDA margins
Net Profit 125 116 Beat 105 20%
EBITDA Margin 14% 13% 14% Gross Profit Margin 7% 8% 8%
Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 56366 55531 In-line 42493 33% Acquisition and healthy growth in wiring harness business drove the growth
Margins impacted owing to rise in input cost and set up owing to on going capex of SMP's 3 EBITDA 5197 5613 In-line 4185 24% mega plants
Net Profit 2260 2048 Miss 1569 44%
EBITDA Margin 9% 10% 10% Gross Profit Margin 39% 37% 38%
42 Coverage Stocks: Annual Earnings Review
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Lumax Industries FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Growth in topline driven by healthy scenario in domestic PV market and change in product Revenue 1650 1463 Beat 1300 27% mix towards high realisation LED lights
EBITDA 134 122 Beat 100 35% Sharp rise in input cost strained margins growth by some extent
INR 6.6 cr additional tax paid this quarter as Sanand plant capitalisation tax. If adjusted, PAT Net Profit 72 77 In-line 55 30% would be in line
EBITDA Margin 8% 8% 8% Gross Profit Margin 34% 32% 35%
GNA Axle FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Growth in topline driven by strong demand scenario in both domestic and international CV Revenue 670 615 Beat 513 31% and off road equipment markets
EBITDA 103 96 Beat 78 32% Sharp rise in input cost impacted margins
Net Profit 51 39 Beat 28 85%
EBITDA Margin 15% 16% 15% Gross Profit Margin 37% 37% 38%
Rico Auto FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 1209 1190 In-line 1079 12% Growth in topline driven by healthy offtake from both domestic and international business
EBITDA 128 125 In-line 115 12% High operating leverage helped to scale up EBITDA margins
Net Profit 58 55 Beat 48 21%
EBITDA Margin 11% 10% 11% Gross Profit Margin 48% 48% 49%
43 Coverage Stocks: Annual Earnings Review
Capital Goods
KEC International FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
The company received orders worth INR 15,098cr, growth of 22% on yoy basis, taking total Revenue 10058 9691 Beat 8584 17 order backlog to INR 17,298cr.
EBITDA 1006 950 Beat 818 23
Net Profit 452 394 Beat 305 48
EBITDA Margin 10 10 10 Gross Profit Margin 28 31
Kirloskar Brothers FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 2742 2728 Beat 2526 9
EBITDA 150 145 Beat 95 58
Net Profit 50 47 Beat 4 1150
EBITDA Margin 5 5 4 Gross Profit Margin 47 49
44 Coverage Stocks: Annual Earnings Review
Cement
Birla Corporation Ltd. FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights Company reported 23% YoY growth in cement sales volumes to 12.39mn tonnes on account of successful integration of RCCPL which was ramped up considerably. Company has Revenue 5734 5637 Beat 4348 32% reported ~10% YoY growth in realisation due to increasing the share of premium product in total sales and also the lower base. as a consequence of this, Net revenue grew at faster clip. EBITDA 807 795 Beat 623 30%
Net Profit 154 82 Beat 219 -30%
EBITDA Margin 14% 14% 14% Gross Profit Margin 86% 85%
Sagar Cements Ltd. FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights SGC successfully integrated the BMM and other acquired plants which resulted into significant surge in cement sales volume and growth in net revenue. Company reported 28% jump in net Revenue 1038 1042 814 28% revenue to INR 1,038cr in FY18, driven by 22% surge in cement sales volume and 5% surge in realisation. EBITDA 151 155 109 39%
Net Profit 26 32 -4 -750%
EBITDA Margin 15% 15% 13% Gross Profit Margin 86% 86% 87%
Sanghi Industries Ltd. FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Company completed the financial closure for next phase of capex which requires ~12-12.5bn Revenue 1026 1078 Beat 998 3% for doubling the grinding, clinker and power capacity
EBITDA 216 245 Miss 198 9%
Net Profit 93 101 Miss 63 48%
EBITDA Margin 21% 23% 20% Gross Profit Margin 93% 93% 93%
45 Coverage Stocks: Annual Earnings Review
Chemicals
Deepak Nitrite FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 1651 1636 In-line 1371 20.5%
Consol. EBITDA was expected to be lower on account of higher project costs in Deepak EBITDA 196 180 Beat 135 44.8% Phenolics, its Acetone-Phenol subsidiary.
Net Profit 79 76 Beat 46 72.7% EBITDA Margin 12% 11% 10% 200 bps Gross Profit Margin 30% 29% 31% -98 bps
Mayur Uniquoters FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 570 564 In-line 474 20.4% In-line with overall expectations
EBITDA 150 153 In-line 126 18.8%
Net Profit 97 95 In-line 82 18.9%
EBITDA Margin 26% 27% 27% -35 bps Gross Profit Margin 40% 42% 42% -242 bps
Balaji Amines FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 863 803 Beat 670 28.7% Impact of Q4FY18 numbers
EBITDA 189 185 In-line 153 24.1%
Net Profit 112 104 Beat 82 35.9%
EBITDA Margin 22% 23% 23% -82 bps Gross Profit Margin 37% 39% 40% -293 bps
46 Coverage Stocks: Annual Earnings Review
Chemicals
Philips Carbon FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights Sales were better than expectation as higher crude prices were passed on in end product Revenue 2547 2408 Beat 1927 32 prices
EBITDA 377 387 In-line 258 46 EBITDA per tonne was largely in line with expectations
Net Profit 230 214 In-line 69 233 PAT was largely in line with expectations driven by lower than expected tax rates EBITDA Margin 15% 16% 13% Gross Profit Margin 34% 34% 35%
Sudarshan Chemical FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 1675 1632 Beat 1523 10 Strong volume growth in H2 compensated an decrease in volumes in H1
EBITDA 200 222 Miss 202 -1 Impact of receivables provisioning at RIECO subsidiary
Net Profit 85 100 Miss 103 -18 Impacted by FX losses and one time provisioning expenses
EBITDA Margin 12% 14% 13% Gross Profit Margin 37% 37% 38%
SH Kelkar Ltd FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 1,025 998 Beat 981 4 H2FY18 growth was strong compared to H1FY18 resulting in flattish growth for the full year
EBITDA 162 178 Miss 166 -2 Profitability was marred by raw material disruptions in Q4FY18
Net Profit 107 103 Beat 105 2 Net profit was largely in line with our estimates
EBITDA Margin 16% 18% 17% Gross Profit Margin
47 Coverage Stocks: Annual Earnings Review
Chemicals
SRF Ltd FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 5589 5,495 Beat 4822 16 Sales growth was driven by expansion of BOPET and BOPP lines in PFB
EBITDA 953 979 In-line 997 -4 Margin compression was led by lower than expected sales growth in the CPB segment
Net Profit 462 465 In-line 515 -10 Lower operating profits also reflected in lower net profits EBITDA Margin 17% 18% 21% Gross Profit Margin 47% 46% 50%
Vinati Organics Ltd. FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 743 723 Beat 641 16
EBITDA 211 201 In-line 217 -3
Net Profit 144 125 Beat 140 3
EBITDA Margin 28% 28% 34% Gross Profit Margin 49% 348% 53%
48 Coverage Stocks: Annual Earnings Review
Consumption
Indian Terrain FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 401 420 Miss 326 23% Sales were restated lower than our estimates resulting in a miss
Although discounting reduced, margins were lower than estimates due to higher marketing EBITDA 48 53 Miss 40 20% spends
Net Profit 26 30 Miss 23 13% Depreciation and interest costs were slightly higher than estimates EBITDA Margin 12% 13% 12% Gross Profit Margin 46% 51% 48%
ABFRL FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 7231 7498 Miss 6633 9% Growth was subdued on account of lower growth in Pantaloons and Forever 21
EBITDA 497 512 In Line 439 13% Margin improvement was strong in H2FY18 due to lower discounting and cost control
Net Profit 63 84 Miss 54 17% PAT was impacted by higher depreciation EBITDA Margin 7% 7% 7% Gross Profit Margin 43% 45% 45%
Crompton Greaves FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 4080 4206 Below 3901 4.6% The sales growth was mainly from electric consumer durable segment
The Go to market strategy to continue for the company and with the transition from EBITDA 531 532 In-line 484 9.7% wholesales to retail would impact the business in near term. Going forward CGCEL focus on operational efficiency, innovations & new product launches Net Profit 324 326 In-line 283 14.5% to continue The managemnet expected to maintain higher bottomline growth against topline with EBITDA Margin 13.0% 12.6% 12.4% product premiumisation and cost optimisation. Gross Profit Margin 31.4% 29.9%
49 Coverage Stocks: Annual Earnings Review
Consumption
Borosil Glassworks Ltd. FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights Revenues driven by healthy performance from scientific-ware - on account of strong Revenue 633 659 Below 557 13.6% performance from the Klasspack business.
The company has improved gross margin; focus on storage segment and improvement in EBITDA 89 91 In-line 59 50.8% Hopewell’s product quality to improving it's margin going forward Management expects healthy growth in coming quarter with more focus on modern retail, Net Profit 49 68 Below 136 -64.0% ecommerce sales channels. EBITDA Margin 14.1% 13.8% 10.6% Gross Profit Margin 62.6% 64.8% 63.0%
Asian Granito Ltd FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights The company has shown robust volume growth however the tile realisations have been down Revenue 1156 1136 Above 1067 8.3% due to correction in GVT prices.
EBITDA 139 155 Below 130 6.9% Going Forward the sales growth is expected to come from the GVT and Quartz segment.
Net Profit 57 56 In-line 52 9.6% AGL to focus on the B2C segment and to futher increase it's distribution network. EBITDA Margin 12.0% 13.6% 12.2% Gross Profit Margin 45.3% 33.3% 30.9%
Shankara Building Products FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 2549 2434 Beat 2310 10% Shankara clocked very strong growth driven by strong performance in Q4
EBITDA 176 179 In Line 154 14% Margin improvement in retail was stong; channel and enterprise margins disappointed
Net Profit 74 80 Miss 60 23% High depreciation and interest costs resulted in slight PAT miss EBITDA Margin 7% 7% 7% Gross Profit Margin 14% 14% 13%
50 Coverage Stocks: Annual Earnings Review
Consumption
Century Plyboards FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 2024 2103 Miss 1819 11% Growth was lower than expectations in the plywood and MDF segment
EBITDA 332 328 In Line 312 6% Pricing pressure in MDF and plywood and raw material challenges has led to lower margins
Net Profit 169 172 Miss 193 -12% PAT growth muted due to forex losses and high depreciation costs EBITDA Margin 16% 16% 17% Gross Profit Margin 50% 48% 49%
Visaka Industries FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights Reported highest ever Q4 EBITDA margin in Building Product segment on account of Revenue 1043 1027 Above 969 7.6% improvement in realisations & significant reduction in operating cost.
EBITDA 150 135 Above 115 30.4% Yarn business displayed strong growth & margin improvement .
Increase in polyester fiber is not a concern as due to stron demand the company can easily Net Profit 67 60 Above 41 63.4% pass on the raw material price Focus on Solar roofing - ATUM is expected to be high asset turn & high ROCE business & EBITDA Margin 14.4% 13.1% 11.9% expected to contribute 10-12% of Visaka's roofing business going forward. The company is aggressively focusing on advertisement and promotions to drive this segments sales. Gross Profit Margin 49.7% 45.0% 43.6%
Finolex Industries FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights The Company has reported a decent volume growth in the pipes & fittings business . Finolex Revenue 2738 3098 Below 2772 -1.2% expects volume to pick up from the capacity addition in PVC pipes & fittings & from the CPVC segment.
EBITDA 484 480 In-line 535 -9.5% PVC resin segment to remain flat in the coming years.
The company reported decent 5% growth in sales in FY18 was majorly on account of 20.5% Net Profit 290 302 Below 320 -9.4% volume growth in the pipe & fitting segment and 10% in PVC resin segment. Finolex expected to continue healthy volume growth going forward. EBITDA Margin 17.7% 15.5% 19.3% Gross Profit Margin 35.6% 32.0% 41.9%
51 Coverage Stocks: Annual Earnings Review
Consumption
J K Paper Ltd. FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 2844 2887 2629 8%
EBITDA 613 603 512 20%
Net Profit 260 251 156 67% EBITDA Margin 22 21 19 207 bps Gross Profit Margin 33
52 Coverage Stocks: Annual Earnings Review
Infrastructure
KNR Constructions Ltd. FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights The company has reported an industry leading EBITDA margin of 19.3% and PAT margin of Revenue 1932 1813 Beat 1541 25% 12.8% in Q4FY18 which is also its highest in the recent past. KNR always maintained a strong balance sheet, highest RoCE and conservative approach in a sector which is highly cyclical in nature. However, due to huge government focus, road EBITDA 386 381 Beat 230 68% capex is expected to experience massive tailwind going forward and hence Order-inflow and Revenue growth are the two key monitrables in this company Net Profit 272 268 Beat 157 73% EBITDA Margin 21 17 15 Gross Profit Margin 33 33 26
PNC Infratech Ltd. FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights PNC reported INR 7,318 cr of order book at the end of FY18, and with the wining of new HAM Revenue 1857 1812 Beat 1689 10% and EPC project worth INR 5095 cr, order book currently stands at INR 12,413 cr which offers more than 5 years of revenue visibility. Revenue performance of the company got impacted over the last six quarters, as orders worth ~INR 3,000 cr got delayed or stuck due to land acquisition issues. However, the situation EBITDA 319 236 Beat 221 44% has improved significantly, as the company got appinted date of stuck projetcs and execution has picked up pace from Q4FY18. Net Profit 251 193 Beat 210 20% EBITDA Margin 17 13 13 Gross Profit Margin 34 34 30
JMC Projects (India) Ltd FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights JMC reported a total orderbook of INR 7,616 cr, a 9% growth YoY and for the full year order Revenue 2756 2823 Miss 2328 18% Inflow was INR 3,339 cr which was higher than our expectations. After four years of muted performance, JMC reported standalone topline growth of 18% YoY EBITDA 302 282 Beat 211 43% to INR 2,756 cr in FY18 as projects across all segments started showing traction. EBITDA margin came at 10.3%, 127 bps higher YoY, mainly due to higher growth and operating leverage. Net Profit 106 92 Beat 59 80% EBITDA Margin 11 10 9 Gross Profit Margin 2756 2823 Miss 2328 18%
53 Coverage Stocks: Annual Earnings Review
Infrastructure
Dilip Buildcon Ltd FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights DBL reported total order book of INR 23,888 cr at the end of Q4FY18. The company has also Revenue 7746 7296 Beat 5098 51.9% reported INR 1.314 cr of order inflow post the fourth quarter and with that overall order book currently stands at INR 25,200 cr which offers more than 3 years of revenue visibility
EBITDA 1403 1335 Beat 992 41.4%
Net Profit 620 567 Beat 361 71.9% EBITDA Margin 18 18 19 Gross Profit Margin 22 24 26
Sadbhav Engineering FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights SEL reported a order book of INR 13,249 cr, a 72% growth YoY backed by industry leading order Revenue 3505 3788 Miss 3320 5.6% inflow of 8,593 cr in FY18.
Debt has come down to INR 1,485 cr as compared to INR 1,777 cr in FY18 and management is EBITDA 415 426 Miss 356 16.7% confident of reducing debt to INR 1,250 cr in H1 FY19.
Net Profit 221 261 Miss 188 17.5% EBITDA Margin 12 11 11 Gross Profit Margin 3505 3788 Miss 3320 5.6%
PSP Projects FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights Surat Diamond Bourses (SDB), worth INR 1,575 cr, is the largest order the company won and its Revenue 752 667 Beat 457 64.6% execution will eject PSP into the league of larger constructors like L&T, and Shapoorji wherein competion is limited to 5-6 players. EBITDA margin for FY18 came at 13.92% and was lower on YoY basis as PSP executed pure play EBITDA 105 93 Beat 67 56.7% labour supply contracts worth INR 80 cr in the previous year and that has artificially boosted the EBITDA margins for FY17 Net Profit 66 57 Beat 41 61.0% EBITDA Margin 14 13.94 14.6 Gross Profit Margin 752 667 Beat 457 64.6%
54 Coverage Stocks: Annual Earnings Review
Metals & Mining
Ratnamani Metals FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 1767 1667 Beat 1412 25 Revenue growth higher than expectation due to higher than expected carbon steel growth
EBITDA 266 308 Miss 257 4 EBITDA was a miss due to lower than expected margins from carbon steel business
Net Profit 152 155 In-line 143 6 EBITDA Margin 15 19 18 Gross Profit Margin 35 36 38
Maharashtra Seamless Ltd FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 2150 1944 Beat 1434 50 Higher than estimated volume
EBIDTA was under pressure in 9MYF18 due to old low margin orders. New order execution in Q4 EBITDA 264 283 Miss 225 17 had healthy margins lower contribution from ERW pipes overall and from seamless in 9MFY18 dampened the Net Profit 119 154 Miss 116 3 margins EBITDA Margin 12 15 16 Gross Profit Margin 32 33 36
Jindal Stainless Steel FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 10357 9576 Beat 7774 33 Volume growth was 13% and average realisation growth was 19% during the year
EBITDA 1231 1281 Miss 980 26 EBITDA marginally lower due to increased raw material cost
Net Profit 592 501 Beat 287 106 Higher PAT due to higher than expected profit from associates. EBITDA Margin 12 13 13 Gross Profit Margin 25 28 28
55 Coverage Stocks: Annual Earnings Review
Metals & Mining
Godawari Power FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights Performance better than expectations at the start of the year as realisations & margins Revenue 2527 2656 Miss 1807 40 improved
EBITDA 597 661 Miss 291 105
Net Profit 231 230 In-line -76 EBITDA Margin 24 25 16 Gross Profit Margin 40 38 31
IMFA FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 1766 1814 Miss 1672 6 Higher volume and marginally higher realisation led to higher revenue YoY
EBITDA 423 526 Miss 513 -18 EBITDA/Tonne was way below our estimation for 4QFY18 leading to degrowth in EBITDA
Net Profit 187 276 Miss 249 -25 EBITDA Margin 24 29 31 Gross Profit Margin 51 55 55
CMI FY18 A FY18 E FY17 % Y-o-Y Key Highlights
Revenue 560 561 378 48
EBITDA 76 79 49 55
Net Profit 26 29 16 63 EBITDA Margin 14 14 13 Gross Profit Margin 22 23 23
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