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Earnings Review Q4fy18 – Earnings Growth Still Patchy

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Earnings Review Q4fy18 – Earnings Growth Still Patchy Edelweiss Investment Research EARNINGS REVIEW Q4FY18 – EARNINGS GROWTH STILL PATCHY Sahil Kapoor Shobana Krishnan Chief Market Strategist Economist [email protected] [email protected] June 2018 Overview Nifty Earnings Remain Elusive ● Nifty Revenue grew by 16% (y-o-y) and Profit grew by 7.6% (y-o-y) in Q4 FY18. Ex- Financials, Nifty Profit grew by 13% (y-o-y). ● Auto, Private Banks, BFSI, Metals and O&G were the top drivers of Nifty Growth. PSU Banks and Pharma were the major draggers on earnings. ● Nifty EPS for FY18 has undergone marginal revision to 455. FY19 EPS has been downgraded by 3% over last 1 year. BSE 500 Earnings ● BSE-500 Revenue grew by 13% (y-o-y) but Profit de-grew by 8% (y-o-y) in Q4 FY18. Ex Financials, Profit grew by 17% (y-o-y). ● Cyclicals have lead the recovery. But Margins have got compressed across sectors. Sectoral Overview ● Auto Anc saw stellar revenue growth but margin compression. Cement sector faced pressure due to high input costs. ● NBFCs continue to be in a sweet spot but PSUs, corporate lenders extend losses. Building Materials have also seen muted growth as transition to formal economy is slow. ● Public Capex has been driving infrastructure growth. Private Capex is still weak. Metals continue their dream run on account of lower base and higher realizations. IT Sector Sees more sanguine picture for midcaps. Coverage Universe ● Among our coverage universe, Top line has grown by 25% and Bottom Line grew by 11%. ● Most of the companies delivered in-line results. More Beats than Miss among our coverage universe. ● Best Earnings Growth : GSPIL, GNA Axle, PNC Infratech; Worst Earnings Growth: CMI, IMFA, Sagar Cements 2 Nifty- Earnings Growth Still Elusive Nifty Sales Growth for Q4 remains good Nifty Profit Growth Remains Muted in Q4 40.0% 25.0% 21.5% 30.0% 20.0% 14.6% 15.5% 15.4% 15.8% 13.3% 20.0% 15.0% 11.2% 13% 7.4% 10.0% y 10.0% - 3.5% o - 5.0% y 0.0% 0.0% -10.0% -5.0% -0.3% -20.0% -10.0% -6.3% -30.0% -15.0% -13.0% -14.4% -20.0% -16.3% Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Nifty Profit Growth Nifty Profit Growth ex Financials Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Operating Profit improvement across Nifty However, margin under pressure Nifty (ex financials) (ex financials) 30% 26% 24.2% 23.2% 22.8% 23.6% 20% 21% 22.2% 21.9% 21.6% 21.5% 21.8% 16% 20.4% 20.7% 20.6% 20% 13% 19.7% 9% 10% 4% 4% 5% 0% 2% 0% -10% -3% -20% -21% -30% Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 EBIDT Growth EBIDT Margin Source: Bloomberg. Edelweiss Investment Research Sector Wise Contribution to Nifty Nifty PAT Growth at 6.5% for FY18 43000 Sector Wise Contributors to Nifty PAT Growth 42000 41000 40000 39000 INR INR Cr. 38000 37000 36000 IT BFSI FY17 FY18 Auto O&G Power Metals Media Pharma Disc. Cement Telecom Goods Staples PSU Banks Diversified Chemicals Eng & Cap Eng Consumer - Consumer - Consumer Private Banks Private Drivers Draggers Source: Bloomberg. Edelweiss Investment Research • Nifty PAT growth for FY18 came in at paltry 6.5%, unlike the initial expectation of double digit growth. • PSU Banks and Pharma were the major draggers on earnings. PSU Banks suffered due to higher provisions and recognitions. Pharma as a sector has been facing global as well as domestic headwinds. • Auto, Private Banks, BFSI, Metals and O&G were the top drivers of Nifty Growth. Although broad based participation in Nifty earnings growth remains evasive, at least the breadth of the participation has improved Nifty EPS Expect Nifty profit growth to rebound in FY19 FY17-20E: 18.3% CAGR 20% 693 27% 579 FY08-17: 4.5% CAGR 9% 6% 455 407 413 394 418 FY01-08: 21% CAGR 348 369 315 281 236 251 247 169 184 131 73 78 92 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY19E EPS estimate progression – 3% estimate cut since Mar’17 620 27.4 30.0 26.4 26.2 24.9 24.4 23.7 610 22.9 25.0 21.0 20.3 20.3 • Nifty EPS has undergone revision because of 600 20.0 change in constituents. 590 15.0 607 609 • Earnings Downgrades continue to dominate 580 599 601 602 602 10.0 598 595 570 577 579 5.0 560 0.0 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Mar-18 May-18 FY19 EPS (INR) FY19 EPS Growth YoY (%) Source: Bloomberg. Edelweiss Investment Research BSE 500-Story No Different BSE-500 Sales Growth Momentum Continues BSE 500 Earnings Growth dragged down by Banks 30% 35% 30% 25% 25% 20% 20% 17% 14% 15% y 15% 13% y - - o 10% o - - y 10% y 5% 5% 0% -5% 0% -10% -8% -5% -15% Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Net Sales Net Sales ex Banks Net Profit Net Profit ex Banks EBIDT Gowth (Ex Financials) have improved EBIDT Margins ex Financials Getting Hit Due to Rising 25% Commodity Prices 21% 20% 20% 15% 19% 10% y - o - y 5% 18% 0% 17% -5% 16% -10% 15% Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Source: Capitaline. Edelweiss Investment Research A muted quarter for BSE-500 across all Parameters Proportion of Companies in BSE 500 whose Sales Proportion of Companies in BSE-500 whose Net Profit Growth is >20% Growth > 20% 35% 55% 50% 30% 45% 25% 40% 20% 35% 30% 15% 25% Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 10% Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Total Ex. Banks Proportion of Companies in BSE 500 (ex Financials) Proportion of Companies in BSE 500 (ex Financials) whose EBIT Growth is >15% whose EBIT Margins are >15% 65% 65% 64% 60% 63% 55% 62% 50% 61% 45% 60% 40% 59% 58% 35% 57% 30% Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Source: Capitaline. Edelweiss Investment Research Sectoral Overview 8 Highlights of the Earnings Season Private Capex still weak IT, Pharma give positive forward guidance Higher Input Costs, Compressing Margins MSMEs having Cyclicals driving Recovery a tough time Worsening Macros, Economic Recovery Improving Micros Strengthens Banking especially Corporate NBFCs in a sweet spot lenders continue to struggle Rural recovery Politically critical year Gaining traction Key Indications from Earnings Call Auto : CV, Tractor Sales Continue to Grow but Margins Compress CV, Tractor, 2 Wheeter Continue to Grow, PV still Margins facing Pressure Across Auto Anc. facing pain 35.0% 50% 30.0% 40% 25.0% 30% 20% 20.0% 10% 15.0% 0% -10% 10.0% -20% 5.0% Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 0.0% CV Domestic Sales Tractor Domestic Sales Bosch Lumax In Minda Corp GNA Axles MSSL 2 wheeler Domestic Sales PV Domestic Sales 201703 201803 Source: CMIE, Capitaline. Edelweiss Investment Research • Low Base and improving industrial activity have led to CV Sales getting traction. Good Monsoon prediction has bolstered growth projection for tractor sales for this year too • Auto Sector has been one of the biggest contributor to revenue and earnings in our coverage stock. • Rising commodity prices are compressing the margins for auto. • Positive for the Sector- Domestic demand recovery, Prediction of Good Monsoons Negative for the Sector – Rising Commodity Prices Among our coverage universe, GNA Axle surprised positively in both top line and bottom line growth. Banking: PSU, Corporate Banks Extend Losses, NBFCs in a sweet spot PSU Banks losses go up to Rs 58,000 cr NBFC % of Market Loan Share Rising 74 835 68 62 58 56 54 46 42 44 -9,642 -8,993 38 -16,696 32 26 INR cr INR NBFC Banks NBFC Banks -58,607 HFCs CVs Q4FY17 Q1 FY18 Q2 FY18 Q3 FY18 Q4 FY18 FY14 FY18 FY20 Source: CRISIL Report, Capitaline. Edelweiss Investment Research • Banking Sector Continues to be dragged by losses incurred by PSUs and Corporate lenders like Axis and ICICI banks • Our coverage universe is more focussed towards NBFCs especially housing finance and cv finance. • NBFCs market share continue to gain momentum and this quarter saw NPL slowdown. Retail loan growth continues to be robust at 19% for FY18.
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