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Infrastructure Sector Sensex: 47706 Infrastructure India I Equities Sector Update 22 April 2021 Infrastructure Sector Sensex: 47706 Upbeat ending to FY21; FY22, second Covid’19-wave to set the course Nifty: 14296 Key & timely policy support and the continuing focus on tendering and awarding are well-appreciated efforts of the government. They not only helped industry participants better manage the uncertain times in FY21 but also ensued that infrastructure development remained the key focus. With execution efficiencies largely back from the initial Covid-wave and sturdy OBs awaiting execution, the sector seemed set for strong growth ahead. The recent surge in Covid cases, though, (and consequent restrictions to contain the spread) appear to have potential to, if not disrupt, then delay the scale- up. Nevertheless, the disruption, owing to efforts underway, is unlikely to be of the magnitude last time. Hence, we retain our long-term constructive view but still choose to be selective. With this, we present our Q4 FY21 preview and our take on tendering/awarding trends in Mar’21 and FY21. Q4 FY21 results preview. Q4, the key contributor to a company’s full-year figures even otherwise, was widely anticipated to mark a complete recovery in the pace of execution from the first round of the Covid-triggered disruption. And companies we cover are unlikely to disappoint as execution had mostly returned by the start of the quarter and order addition was brisk. Consequently, we see our coverage universe (excl. IRB Infra and two not-rated) to record ~16% y/y higher revenues and, further aided by better scale, an inspiring ~54% higher earnings. New announcements, returns with a vengeance. This is amply evident from the Mar’21 new investment proposals of ~Rs1.7trn. This is not only the best monthly figure in FY21 but also the second highest in the past 48 months. The private sector taking the lead with announcements of ~Rs1trn was heartening. Roads, power & mining and manufacturing were key contributors. New announcements in FY21, though down ~5% y/y to ~Rs9.5trn, were no mean feat, considered on the backdrop of the Covid-led disruption early in the year. Mar’21 tendering, led by States. Tenders of ~Rs889bn floated in Mar’21 were the second highest in FY21, comparing favourably to FY21’s monthly average of ~Rs647bn. Roads (~42%), water & irrigation (~27%) and buildings & housing (~12%) were key contributors. Tenders of ~Rs7.8trn were floated in FY21, up ~50% y/y. More tenders, amid y/y lower project announcements in FY21, imply a greater share of announcements are making it to tendering stage. Inspiring awarding. Strong Q4 FY21/FY21 awarding appears a function of the greater thrust on infrastructure creation owing to the sector’s inherent ability to create job opportunities, and contribute to economic growth. Consequently, Mar’21 awarding of ~Rs993bn is not only higher y/y but also the best monthly figure in a good 48 months. Power & mining (~44%), roads (~34%) and Prem Khurana buildings & housing (~6%) were the key contributors. FY21 saw cumulative Research Analyst awards of ~Rs3.5trn, ahead of the ~Rs3trn five-year annual awarding average. Top picks: KNR Constructions, PNC Infratech and Ahluwalia Contracts. Rachit R Kamath Strong balance sheets, ample assurance and execution abilities are key common Research Associate traits that push us to retaining our positive stance. Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter “ARSSBL”) is a full-service brokerage and equities-research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of ARSSBL and not of the companies which have been covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures and analyst certifications are present in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India Equities 22 April 2021 Infrastructure Sector – Upbeat ending to FY21; FY22, second Covid’19-wave to set the course Q4 FY21 performance preview Strong finish to the year. By the start of the quarter, execution efficiency had largely returned from the disruption brought on by the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. This, we believe, would have paved the way for the strong pace of execution in Q4 FY21. We expect performances to have been further aided by healthy awards during the year, and commencement of work at some of these new awards. Positive policy measures, too, (mostly under the Atmanirbhar Bharat scheme) appear to have provided the requisite fillip. With this, we present to you, our preview for Q4 FY21. We expect the companies we cover (excl. IRB Infrastructure and the two not-rated) to report ~16% y/y blended revenue growth and aggregate absolute revenue from operations of ~Rs167bn. Mid-double-digit y/y revenue growth would be the result also of the benign base, owing to the Covid-kicked-off disruption in Mar’20. We anticipate aggregate absolute operating profitability for comparable names to have risen even better (~23% y/y), on sturdier blended EBITDA margins of ~12.3% (up ~67bps y/y). Fig 1 – Q4 FY21 performance preview – Returned efficiencies, brisk order additions likely to lead to strong finish to FY21 Revenue from operations EBITDA margin (%) Adj. PAT Reported inflows (Rs m) Q4 FY21e % Y/Y % Q/Q Q4 FY21e Q4 FY20 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21e % Y/Y % Q/Q Q4 FY21 Sound balance sheets Ahluwalia Contracts 6,159 12.1 14.9 7.5 4.2 5.9 232 280.3 57.6 1,280 Ashoka Buildcon 12,357 (1.5) 26.0 12.2 18.2 10.8 1,134 (31.0) 32.4 NA HG Infra 7,648 22.8 4.1 16.1 16.3 16.1 651 27.0 (0.7) 25,643 KNR Constructions 7,605 12.6 10.8 19.5 21.7 19.7 769 14.5 (0.8) 60,292 NBCC 19,338 21.6 28.2 3.9 1.2 2.8 1,091 124.9 33.3 3,277 PNC Infratech 14,703 27.0 11.2 13.5 13.5 13.5 1,090 43.3 5.7 23,513 Private-heavy / Urban-centric Capacit'e Infraprojects 4,176 35.9 36.6 16.9 15.5 17.9 262 584.6 72.2 NA ITD Cementation 8,793 18.9 11.1 9.6 11.4 9.0 283 (20.2) (5.6) NA J Kumar Infraprojects 9,318 6.2 14.2 14.5 10.5 14.1 581 87.2 29.4 9,415 JMC Projects 12,517 33.4 17.4 10.4 2.9 9.0 557 - 116.9 11,910 PSP Projects 5,059 10.9 29.7 12.6 11.1 12.0 416 21.3 35.6 22,506 Leveraged Dilip Buildcon 26,717 6.9 8.3 16.5 16.5 16.5 1,272 10.5 14.6 68,770 Gayatri Projects 10,949 20.3 1.9 13.8 5.9 13.6 411 - 2.3 17,291 NCC 24,732 13.3 28.9 12.0 12.9 12.5 1,108 6.8 57.6 17,300 Sadbhav Engineering 6,169 50.9 11.0 12.0 12.3 13.2 130 - (14.6) NA Pure play asset-ownership IRB Infrastructure 14,460 (8.7) (6.5) 48.3 41.3 46.5 686 (55.6) (1.3) 32,490 Total Only rated companies *^ 167,006 15.9 15.5 12.3 11.6 12.2 9,309 54.2 21.6 Incl. not rated companies * 176,241 16.2 16.3 12.4 11.7 12.3 9,987 55.7 23.0 Source: Anand Rathi Research, Companies * Excl. IRB Infra, as asset sales render financials non-comparable ^ Excl. not-rated companies, namely PSP and Capacit'e . Better blended margins would be a function of the greater scale, changed project mix and Covid-triggered cost controls. The margin expansion would have been better were it not for input- cost pressure. Greater operating profitability and financial leverage are expected to have taken blended adj. PAT ~54% y/y higher. The growth would also have been due to contained capex during the year. Anand Rathi Research 2 22 April 2021 Infrastructure Sector – Upbeat ending to FY21; FY22, second Covid’19-wave to set the course . The Q4 FY21 reported order additions have been inspiring, and are likely to far exceed the Q4 revenues. Resultantly, we see revenue assurance to turn better, on aggregate basis. Input cost pressure, small impact. With operational efficiency largely back, operating profitability, too, was on course to recover from the initial shocks at the beginning of the pandemic. However, input- cost pressure is likely to contain margin expansion to a certain extent. While the rise in raw material prices is real and likely to have an impact, discussions with industry participants indicate that the impact is unlikely to be significant. Part of the input-cost pressure, most believe, would be compensated by inherent price-escalation clauses; and cost-control measures as a result of the Covid-caused disruption would also ease a certain amount of the input-cost pressure. As such, barring a few names (for specific reasons), we see project- level margins to return to the past ranges for the larger coverage. Year-end spurt in awarding = strong inflows. The greater thrust on infrastructure creation by the government as a means to revive economic growth (in the wake of the yet evolving Covid-19 pandemic), coupled with the generally seen year-end spurt in awarding translated to strong order inflows in Q4. This augurs well as it provided ample opportunities to most industry participants to further bolster revenue assurances. Major beneficiaries in Q4 FY21 include the likes of: .
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