EARTH OBSERVATIONS and GLOBAL CHANGE Why? Where Are We? What Next?

EARTH OBSERVATIONS AND GLOBAL CHANGE Why? Where Are We? What Next? A Report of CSIS Space Initiatives 1800 K Street NW | Washington, DC 20006 AUTHORS Tel: (202) 887-0200 | Fax: (202) 775-3199 Lyn Wigbels E-mail: [email protected] | Web: www.csis.org G. Ryan Faith Vincent Sabathier July 2008 ISBN 978-0-89206-541-7 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & Ë|xHSKITCy065417zv*:+:!:+:! CSIS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES EARTH OBSERVATIONS AND GLOBAL CHANGE Why? Where Are We? What Next? A Report of CSIS Space Initiatives AUTHORS Lyn Wigbels G. Ryan Faith Vincent Sabathier July 2008 About CSIS In an era of ever-changing global opportunities and challenges, the Center for Strategic and Inter- national Studies (CSIS) provides strategic insights and practical policy solutions to decisionmakers. CSIS conducts research and analysis and develops policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke at the height of the Cold War, CSIS was dedicated to the simple but urgent goal of finding ways for America to survive as a nation and prosper as a people. Since 1962, CSIS has grown to become one of the world’s preeminent public policy institutions. Today, CSIS is a bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. More than 220 full-time staff and a large network of affiliated scholars focus their expertise on defense and security; on the world’s regions and the unique challenges inherent to them; and on the issues that know no boundary in an increasingly connected world. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn became chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 1999, and John J. Hamre has led CSIS as its president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). Photo credits: NASA/WilliamAnders —Apollo 8, cover: ©iStockphoto.com/George Jurasek, p. v; ©iStockphoto.com/Federico Montemurro, p. vi; NASA GSFC Scientific Visualization Studio, p. vii; Department of Defense/Staff Sgt. Oscar Sanchez, Iowa National Guard, p. xiii; Adam Sparkes, p. xiv; Department of Defense/Lance Cpl. Willard J. Lathrop, USMC, p. 3; Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, The University of Montana, p. 4; ©iStockphoto.com/Zoran Simin, p. 5; NASA, p. 6; NASA/Lawrence Ong, p. 6; David S. Roberts, p. 7; ©iStockphoto.com/Peter Cosgrove, p. 8; NASA GSFC/Craig Mayhew and Robert Simmon, p. 9; Erik Charlto, p. 17; NOAA, p. 18; NASA GSFC, p. 27; ©iStockphoto.com/ Volker Kreinacke, p. 28. © 2008 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data CIP information available on request. ISBN 978-0-89206-541-7 The CSIS Press Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20006 Tel: (202) 775-3119 Fax: (202) 775-3199 Web: www.csis.org 2 contents Preface iv Executive Summary vii 1. What Is the Value of Earth Observations? 1 Background Findings Why Is the Private Sector Relying More on Earth Observations? What Is the Role of Earth Observations in Maintaining National and International Security? What Is the Role of Earth Observations in Providing Global Public Goods? 2. Where Are Earth Observations Today? 19 Who in the U.S. Government Is Responsible for Earth Observations? What Challenges Face Earth Observations? How Will We Plan and Pay for Earth Observations? How Will the Public and Private Sectors Work Together? 3. What Happens Next in Earth Observations? 29 Value of Earth Observations and U.S. Challenges and Opportunities International Challenges and Opportunities Private-Sector Challenges and Opportunities Appendix A. Working Group Members and Contributors 32 Appendix B. Current and Planned Earth Observation Satellites 34 | iii preface Is it possible to predict or alleviate the impacts of natural and manmade disasters? From the recent earthquake in China to the cyclone in Myanmar to the rapid changes in our climate to the ongoing violence in Darfur, environmental and national security events are occurring around the globe. Can we learn to adapt to and mitigate the water shortages and droughts that, combined with crop failures and exacerbated by soaring energy prices and a growing demand for biofuels, have led to an unprecedented global food crisis? Will we be able to understand and take actions to minimize the impact of changing climate and associated weather events on the health of human popula- tions—from addressing rising sea levels to the accelerated spread of disease? Will we be able to balance the need for a wider array of alternative energy sources with respect to surging energy prices, simultaneously managing the implementation of carbon emission agreements including carbon cap and trade agreements? These questions, and many others, demonstrate the complex management challenges present- ed by global change.1 In order for decisionmakers to address these management challenges, they must have reliable, continuous long-term data about our planet and environment. Earth observations—including sensors in space, on land, in the air, and at sea, as well as associated data management and dissemination systems, Earth system models, and decision support tools—provide the infrastructure to deliver the data needed to understand ongoing global changes. In the half century since the dawn of the space age, space-based technologies from communications satellites to the global position system (GPS)—which underpin the success of globalization in recent decades—have been instrumental in knitting our civilization more closely together. Similarly, we have started to rely on Earth observations as another global public good. Earth observations are critical in a number of areas including dramatic applications in managing the effect of disasters, monitoring global agricultural productivity, assessing natural conditions including the state of the Earth’s fresh water supplies, and monitoring the indirect effects of global energy policies on Earth’s climate. These are all part of the vast effort involved in understanding and managing the 20 percent to 80 percent of the U.S. economy (representing $2.75 trillion to $11 trillion in 2007) sensitive to weather in the short term, let alone the evolving risk profile associated with longer-term global change. We have successfully developed and integrated space-based communications and navigation capabilities to bring us closer together. While we have made great strides in developing and using Earth observation capabilities, many challenges remain to provide equivalent accomplishments 1. For the purposes of this report, we use the phrase “global change” to encompass the entire range of environment-related change phenomena regardless of time scale—from climate change to changes in available natural resources to severe weather--that can be observed, monitored, or understood with the aid of Earth observation systems. Further, when terms such as predict, prevent, mitigate (or other similar words) are used, they are meant generally to cover the full range of activities that one performs based on actionable Earth observation data. iv | in the operational and sustained use of Earth observations for global security. While we have started to use Earth observations in predicting and responding to disasters, such as the Indonesian tsunami or Hurricane Katrina, we are far from secure in having an operational ability to systemati- cally monitor, predict, mitigate, or understand in order to take the actions necessary to prevent the challenges caused by the ever-increasing pace of global change. If we are to understand and plan intelligently for global change, we must take every opportunity to build on our past successes and redress our existing shortcomings. Today, there are a number of steps the United States must undertake to deliver on the potential of Earth observations. First, the United States has the opportunity to demonstrate strong leadership within the U.S. Earth observation community through coherent, integrated planning, budget- ing, and management of an Earth observation system providing long-term, continuous data acqui- sition. Second, the United States must lead the world toward effective international cooperation on Earth observations and, consequently, global change. Like any other kind of strong international leadership, leadership in Earth observations enhances our national foreign policy capabilities from providing data to manage global resources to economic security enabled by Earth observation capacity building. Third, the United States must ensure that Earth observations meet the needs of all users and that the public and private sectors reinforce—not inhibit—each other to enable us to take advantage of the ingenuity and innovation that the private sector can offer. Rather than learning to adapt to natural and manmade disasters, the changing climate, the global food crisis, and our growing appetite for energy, dealing only with the consequences after the fact, we need to start focusing our efforts on the Earth observation systems that will better connect humanity and its home, allowing us to prevent, predict, and mitigate the increasingly dramatic impacts of global change on a routine basis. lyn wigbels, g. ryan faith, and vincent sabathier | v Bank damaged in 2005 by Hurricane Wilma—the most intense hurricane recorded in the Atlantic basin. vi | earth observations and global change executive summary The Value of Earth Observations

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