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The Challenge of Retail Gas in California's Low-Carbon Future

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The Challenge of Retail Gas in California's Low-Carbon Future Energy Research and Development Division FINAL PROJECT REPORT The Challenge of Retail Gas in California’s Low- Carbon Future Appendices A-G Gavin Newsom, Governor April 2020 | CEC-500-2019-055-AP-G PREPARED BY: Primary Authors: Dan Aas, Amber Mahone, Zack Subin, Michael Mac Kinnon, Blake Lane, Snuller Price Additional contributors: Doug Allen, Charles Li, Gabe Mantegna Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. 44 Montgomery Street, Suite 1500 415-391-5100 www.ethree.com University of California, Irvine, Advanced Power and Energy Program Engineering Laboratory Facility Irvine, California 92697-3550 949-824-7302 http://www.apep.uci.edu Contract Number: PIR-16-011 PREPARED FOR: California Energy Commission Guido Franco and Susan Wilhelm, Ph.D. Project Managers Jonah Steinbuck, Ph.D. Office Manager ENERGY GENERATION RESEARCH OFFICE Laurie ten Hope Deputy Director ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT DIVISION Drew Bohan Executive Director DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as the result of work sponsored by the California Energy Commission. It does not necessarily represent the views of the Energy Commission, its employees or the State of California. The Energy Commission, the State of California, its employees, contractors and subcontractors make no warranty, express or implied, and assume no legal liability for the information in this report; nor does any party represent that the uses of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights. This report has not been approved or disapproved by the California Energy Commission nor has the California Energy Commission passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the information in this report. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page APPENDIX A: Frequently Asked Questions .............................................................. A-1 APPENDIX B: Technical Advisory Committee Members ........................................... B-10 APPENDIX C: Technology Options to Decarbonize the Natural Gas System .............. C-1 APPENDIX D: PATHWAYS RNG and Biofuels Analysis .............................................. D-1 APPENDIX E: PATHWAYS Scenarios ...................................................................... E-1 APPENDIX F: Air Quality Impacts of Future of Natural Gas Scenarios ......................... F-1 APPENDIX G: E3 Gas Revenue Requirement Model ................................................. G-1 LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure C-1: Current and Potential Biomass Production for Energy Use in California Based on Medium Housing, Medium Energy Use, and Base Case Energy Crop Growth Scenario ............................................................................................................................ C-3 Figure C-2: Map of Biomass Production in California ................................................ C-4 Figure C-3: Main Gas Production Pathways Considered for Decarbonizing the California Natural Gas System ............................................................................................... C-5 Figure C-4: Schematic of P2G Pathways ................................................................. C-7 Figure C-5: Flowchart of Analyzed P2G Pathways .................................................... C-7 Figure C-6: Future Electrolyzer Market Size Projections in 2030, 2035, and 2050 (Based on Assumed Efficiency of 50kWh/kg and Capacity Factor of 90 Percent) ................... C-9 Figure C-7: Future Electrolyzer Market Size Projections in 2030, 2035, and 2050 (Based on Assumed Efficiency of 50kWh/kg and Capacity Factor of 50 Percent) ..................C-10 Figure C-8: Range of Electrolyzer Efficiencies Found in the Literature ......................C-11 Figure C-9: Electrolyzer System Efficiency Projections From the Literature ...............C-12 Figure C-10: Information on Uninstalled Cost for PEMEC and AEC Versus Time ........C-13 Figure C-11: More Detailed Information on Uninstalled Cost for AEC Versus Time to Show Difference Between Survey Information and Experience Curve Calculations ....C-15 Figure C-12: Methanator Equilibrium Species Concentrations at Five Atmospheres of Pressure ..............................................................................................................C-17 Figure C-13: Typical Electrical Conversion Efficiencies for Different Types of Gasification Technologies .......................................................................................................C-22 Figure C-14: Representations of Different Types of Gasifiers ...................................C-22 Figure C-15: Gasification Plants Installed and Planned in Different Regions of the World ...........................................................................................................................C-26 Figure C-16: Gasification Plants Installed and Planned Disaggregated by Product .....C-26 Figure C-17: Gasification Plants Installed and Planned Disaggregated by Feedstock .C-27 Figure C-18: Energetic Efficiency of Gasification, Divided by Fuel Produced .............C-29 Figure C-19: Installed Cost of Gasification, Divided by Fuel Produced ......................C-30 Figure C-20: Biomass Conversion Pathways ...........................................................C-31 Figure C-21: Anaerobic Digestion Biological Processes ............................................C-31 Figure C-22: Anaerobic Digestion Technologies ......................................................C-32 Figure C-23: Anaerobic Digestion Mass Balance Diagram ........................................C-33 Figure C-24: Energetic Efficiency of Anaerobic Digestion, Categorized by Feedstock .C-38 Figure C-25: Installed Cost of Anaerobic Digestion System, Categorized by Feedstock . C- 39 Figure C-26: Two Key Components of Developing Interconnection Capabilities With the Existing Natural Gas Grid for a Renewable Gas Project ...........................................C-40 Figure C-27: Probability Distribution of 108 Studies That Report Learning Rates in 22 Industrial Sectors .................................................................................................C-44 Figure C-28: Conservative Estimate on Electrolyzer Efficiency Projection..................C-46 Figure C-29: Optimistic Estimate on Electrolyzer Efficiency Projection ......................C-46 Figure C-30: Voltage and Current Density for a Solid Oxide Electrolyzer and Fuel Cell . C- 47 Figure C-31: Conservative Projection of Uninstalled Cost and Electrolyzer Market Size . C- 48 Figure C-32: Optimistic Projection of Uninstalled Cost and Electrolyzer Market Size ..C-49 Figure C-33: P2G Pathways Cost, Conservative Scenario With 20 Percent CF ...........C-56 Figure C-34: P2G Pathways Cost, Conservative Scenario With 20 Percent CF Focused on 2030 to 2050 .......................................................................................................C-57 ii Figure C-35: P2G Pathways Cost, Conservative Scenario With 85 Percent CF ...........C-57 Figure C-36: P2G Pathways Cost, Conservative Scenario With 85 Percent CF Focused on 2030 to 2050 .......................................................................................................C-58 Figure C-37: P2G Pathways Cost, Optimistic Scenario With 20 Percent CF ...............C-58 Figure C-38: P2G Pathways Cost, Optimistic Scenario With 20 Percent CF Focused on 2030 to 2050 .......................................................................................................C-59 Figure C-39: P2G Pathways Cost, Optimistic Scenario With 20 Percent CF ...............C-59 Figure C-40: P2G Pathways Cost, Optimistic Scenario With 20 Percent CF Focused on 2030 to 2050 .......................................................................................................C-60 Figure C-41: Efficiency Projections for Biomass Gasification for Production of SNG With Installed Capacity Evolution as Shown ...................................................................C-61 Figure C-42: Efficiency Projections for Biomass Gasification for Production of H2 With Installed Capacity Evolution as Shown ...................................................................C-62 Figure C-43: Installed Cost Projections for Biomass Gasification for Production of SNG With Installed Capacity Evolution as Shown and Learning Rate of 10 Percent ..........C-62 Figure C-44: Installed Cost Projections for Biomass Gasification for Production of H2 With Installed Capacity Evolution as Shown and Learning Rate of 10 Percent ..........C-63 Figure C-45: FOM Cost Projections for Biomass Gasification for Production of SNG With Installed Capacity Evolution as Shown and Learning Rate of 10 Percent ..................C-63 Figure C-46: VOM Cost Projections for Biomass Gasification for Production of SNG With Installed Capacity Evolution as Shown and Learning Rate of 10 Percent ..................C-64 Figure C-47: FOM Cost Projections for Biomass Gasification for Production of H2 With Installed Capacity Evolution as Shown and Learning Rate of 10 Percent ..................C-64 Figure C-48: VOM Cost Projections for Biomass Gasification for Production of H2 With Installed Capacity Evolution as Shown and Learning Rate of 10 Percent ..................C-65 Figure C-49: Projected HHV Efficiency and Market Growth for Anaerobic Digesters With Manure Feedstocks ..............................................................................................C-66 Figure C-50: Projected HHV Efficiency and Market Growth for Anaerobic Digesters With Organic Feedstocks ..............................................................................................C-66
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