EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS Pocketbook 2018/19 Table of Contents 1 Introduction 2 2 Number of Vehicles 12 3 Fuel Consumption & CO2 24 4 Technologies 40 5 Key Technical Parameters 50 6 Other Emissions & On-road 66 Annex Remarks on Data Sources 70 List of Figures & Tables 72 References 76 Abbreviations 78 Tables 79 An electronic version of this Pocketbook including more detailed statistical data is available online: http://eupocketbook.theicct.org EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2018/19 1 INTRODUCTION Market share (%) Fig. 1-1 25 Market shares of small to Year Change in market Small medium vehicles with 2015 Medium -2 g/km, comparatively low CO 2017 shares and average -1 g/km, -1.6 pp 2 The 2018/19 edition of European Vehicle Market -5.8 pp emissions increased by more CO emission 20 Fuel type 2 Statistics offers a statistical portrait of passenger car, than 9 percentage points Diesel values from 2015 to Petrol light commercial and heavy-duty vehicle fleets in SUV 2017, by segment -6 g/km, and fuel type -0.3 pp the European Union (EU) from 2001 to 2017. 15 As in previous editions, the emphasis is on vehicle Medium Market shares of medium-sized https://bit.ly/2ueJgLz -3 g/km, vehicles and SUVs with technologies, fuel consumption, and emissions of -2.5 pp comparatively high CO2 emissions increased by more 10 greenhouse gases and other air pollutants. than 7 percentage points SUV The following pages give a concise overview -5 g/km, of data in subsequent chapters and also summarize -4.6 pp 5 Other the latest regulatory developments in the EU. Small Other -12 g/km, -4 g/km, -7 g/km, 0.6 pp More comprehensive tables are included in the annex, -1.9 pp -0.2 pp along with information on sources. 0 80 100 120 140 1602180 00 Number of vehicles Average CO2 emissions (g/km, NEDC) In 2017, new car registrations in the EU increased to 15.2 million, which is the highest level since 2007. During the economic crisis, sales had reached In the aftermath of the Dieselgate scandal, a low point in 2013, with 11.8 million sales. A notable sales of new diesel cars dropped significantly. exception to the upwards trend is the United Kingdom In 2011–2012, about 55 % of newly registered cars in (UK), where new car registrations dropped by the EU were powered by diesel fuel, an all-time high. 6 % compared to 2016. As in previous years, by far the Since then, the market share of diesel first decreased strongest growth in vehicle sales took place in the slowly, to 49 % in 2016, but then dropped more sport utility vehicle (SUV) segment. About 4.3 million quickly, to 44 % in 2017. However, the market develop- new cars in 2017 were SUVs, more than 6 times ments vary by member state. For example, in France, as many as 15 years before. At the same time, small where the diesel market share used to be signifi - diesel, small gasoline, and medium-sized diesel cantly higher than the EU average, the market share vehicles – all with comparatively low CO2 emission dropped from a high of 77 % in 2008 to 47 % by values – lost more than 9 percentage points from 2015 2016. This decline in diesel car sales began before to 2017. These relatively small vehicles were replaced Dieselgate and is likely related to the fact that by medium-sized gasoline vehicles and SUVs. the French government is leveling out taxes on diesel The increase in the latter group was particularly and gasoline fuel. In Germany, on the other hand, problematic for fleet-average CO2 reductions, because the diesel market share remained stable over the SUVs had comparatively high CO2 emission values. past five years (at about 48 %) but began dropping (Fig. 1-1). noticeably towards the end of 2016, reaching a level of 33 % in December 2017. This recent decrease in diesel car sales is likely due to a loss in trust from consumers who are increasingly worried about the threat of diesel bans in urban areas. 2 3 EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2018/19 1 Introduction Fuel consumption and CO2 emissions In 2012, the European Commission formally The official level of average carbon dioxide (CO2) proposed an average CO2 emissions target of 95 g/km emissions from new passenger cars in the EU, as for 2020, which in terms of fuel consumption equates measured in the laboratory via the type-approval to about 4 liters/100 km. Details of the proposal test procedure, increased to 119 grams per kilometer had been under discussion in the European Parliament (g/km) in 2017, which is 1 g/km higher than in the and the European Council in the first half of 2013, previous year (Tietge, 2018a). CO2 emissions and fuel with the European Parliament proposing some changes consumption are directly linked, so the current to the European Commission document, including level of emissions amounts to about 5 liters/100 km. a 2025 target range of 68–78 g/km of CO2. As explained in the previous section, it is mostly In November 2013, a final compromise was reached, the shift to larger vehicle segments, not merely the and the regulation was formally adopted in March shift away from diesel, that explains this recent 2014. Under the new EU regulation, only 95 % of the slowdown in fleet-average CO2 emission reductions new vehicle fleet must comply with the 95 g/km (Mock, 2018a). target by 2020. After one year of phase-in, from 2021 all new vehicles will be taken into account for calculating manufacturers’ fleet averages (Mock, 2014). Light commercial vehicles (i. e., commercial Fig. 1-2 CO2 (million tonnes) 1,000 vehicles below 3.5 metric tons gross vehicle weight) Required fleet- Direct CO2 emissions from road transport in the EU have their own CO2 emission standard. The 2017 target average CO2 900 requires an average fleet emission level of 175 g/km reductions to be in 800 – a level that was reached in 2013. A regulation setting line with EU and Road transport CO New vehicle CO 2030* international (2005–2030) Cars and vans Trucks a 2020 target of 147 g/km was adopted in February climate protection 700 -20% -20% -20% -25% -30% -30% 2014. agreements -29% -40% -40% In November 2017, the European Commission 600 Eort Sharing Regulation -33% -50% -50% https://bit.ly/2R64rsT (30% below 2015) -36% -60% -50% came forward with a regulatory proposal for CO -39% -70% -50% 2 500 emissions of new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles for the time period up to 2030 (Dornoff et al., 400 EC’s LDV and HDV 2018). The original proposal includes a fleet-wide proposals 300 CO2 reduction target of 15 % for 2025 and 30 % for 2 degree Celsius scenario 2030. As part of ongoing political negotiations, 200 it is expected that the European Parliament and the 100 Beyond 2 degree Celsius scenario Council (the EU member state governments) will (In line with Paris Agreement) strengthen the regulatory proposal, before it will get 0 adopted – most likely – in early-2019. 10 35 45 30 05 40 2015 20 2025 20 20 2020 20 2050 20 20 * Compared to 2019 baseline for rigid trucks and tractor trucks, 2020 for vans and 2021 for cars. 4 5 EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2018/19 1 Introduction For heavy-duty vehicles, the European Commis- CO savings from eco-innovations (g/km) Fig. 1-3 2 sion came forward with a regulatory proposal in May 5 Average, all vehicles CO2 savings from 2018. As for light-duty vehicles, it includes a CO2 Average, eco-innovation vehicles eco-innovations by Maximum, individual vehicles reduction target of 15 % for 2025 and 30 % for 2030 vehicle brand 4 (but with reference to a 2019 baseline) (Rodríguez in 2017, sorted by and Delgado, 2018). Up until now, the EU remains the brand-average CO2 savings only major truck market in the world without a CO2 3 emission regulation (Muncrief, 2014). The proposed https://bit.ly/2xIXVA7 regulation would only cover the largest categories of trucks, but is likely to be amended by further 2 regulations then covering smaller trucks as well as trailers. To be in line with the EU’s climate protection 1 target for 2030, the cars/vans and truck regulations would need to be strengthened, to include a 0 Mercedes- BMW PorscheMini Honda Škoda Mazda Opel SmartVW CO2 reduction target of 40–50 % for 2030 (Fig. 1-2). Benz In order to meet the Paris climate protection agreement, even higher reductions of up to 70 % for light-duty vehicles would be necessary by 2030 (Rodríguez, 2018). In 2017, plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and battery- electric vehicles (BEV) made up about 1.4 % of vehicle Technologies registrations in the EU. This is a slight increase The vast majority of Europe’s new cars remain compared to the previous year. The market share is powered by gasoline or diesel motors. The market much higher in the case of BMW (5.8 %), which is share of hybrid-electric vehicles in the EU was 2.7 % of currently the leading manufacturer in terms of electric all new car sales in 2017. Sales of hybrid-electric vehicle sales within the EU. Renault-Nissan and cars went up in particular in Spain, where the market Daimler, which rank second and third in terms of share increased from 1.8 % in 2015 to 4.5 % in 2017. electric-vehicle market share, each sell only about 2 % This is even higher than in the Netherlands (4.2 %), of their new cars as electric.