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Denver Capital Markets Report 1Q2020

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Denver Capital Markets Report 1Q2020 3 Month LIBOR 10 Year Treasury Note NAREIT Index 1.45% 0.46% 0.70% 1.18% $170.98 $65.69 Valid 3-31-20 Change from 4Q19 Valid 3-31-20 Change from 4Q19 Valid 3-31-20 Change from 4Q19 Transaction Volume First Quarter 2020/ Capital Markets Research Report The Denver investment sales market remained active in the first Denver Metro quarter of 2020 with nearly $3 billion in sales. However, March did Market Overview Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the activity in the industrial sector, particularly see activity begin to slow, a possible Denver commercial real estate investment as the amount of available land dwindles. indication of what is to come as market was poised for another banner year the COVID-19 pandemic develops. However, the unprecedented nature of through the first quarter of 2020. Denver the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting has benefited greatly over the course of 4Q 2019 1Q 2020 shelter-in-place initiatives have put much the last cycle from its increasingly diverse of the reasonable certainty over Denver’s OFFICE $404M $1.4B economy, with established government, 2020 investment outlook in jeopardy. energy, and financial presences and a INDUSTRIAL $917M $490M While investment sales grew year-over- burgeoning tech scene. With the city’s year in the first quarter, deal volume had GDP growing for the tenth straight year RETAIL $227M $163M slowed considerably by mid-March as both in 2019, Denver’s rising prominence buyers and sellers sought a wait-and-see has made it attractive to investors, MULTI-FAMILY $1.6B $751M approach in response to the pandemic’s particularly those seeking asylum from the mounting effect on both the local and comparatively higher pricing in gateway TOTAL $3.1B $2.8B national economies. The low cost of debt cities like San Francisco and New York. and equity going into the pandemic may There were $2.8 billion in investment sales result in a percentage of over-leveraged US News & World in Denver in the first quarter of 2020, with borrowers, creating potential for REITs Report ranked all sectors showing sustained prosperity. and private buyers with liquidity to make With a robust millennial population and opportunistic investments in the market. Denver the sixth new tenants flocking to the market, The first quarter of 2020 was robust in the both the multi-family and office sectors most desirable city office sector, with office sales accounting remained highly competitive. Denver’s for half of the market’s total investment growing reputation as a logistics and for millennials volume for the quarter. Driven in large part distribution hub has also fueled investment Partnership. Performance. 1 avisonyoung.com by two deals in the CBD, the office sector showed few signs of slowing even as pre-pandemic concerns over the end of the growth cycle lingered. The CBD is the Ranked #4 traditional epicenter of the Denver urban Forbes Ranked Denver fourth core, with well-established financial in their 2019 ranking of best US and energy tenants accounting for a cities for business and careers large portion of the submarket’s square footage. When the technology presence in Denver began to grow, tech tenants originally flocked to the trendy LoDo and first quarter of 2020 with almost $500 Multi-family has been the darling of Platte Valley submarkets surrounding million in sales volume. Throughout commercial real estate investment in the CBD. However, as rents and taxes in the current cycle, Denver has been one Denver over the last decade, with a influx both areas continue to rise, an increasing of the best rent growth markets in the of young transplants driving occupancy, number of tech tenants have elected industrial sector. Still, industrial rental rate rental rates, and development. Multi- to relocate to the CBD to better suit growth has softened despite immense family potentially faces the biggest rapid expansion while still appeasing supply pressures, resulting in a slight exposure as cash flows dry up in the millennial talent with a central location. contraction of the average NNN industrial wake of surging unemployment. rental rate in the first quarter of 2020. However, the pandemic may offer Beacon Capital Partners’ purchase of One opportunities for cash investors to Tabor Center at 1200 17th Street, one However, a still-growing population and score assets at a potentially below- of the two $400 million portfolio deals a dwindling land supply has kept investor market value. And depending on the in the CBD, included an adjacent land interest high in the industrial sector. duration of the COVD-19 pandemic, site. Though development plans for a Perhaps more than the other sectors, the multi-family sector may show some second tower on the corner of 17th and industrial real estate fundamentals resiliency as furloughed hospitality Larimer have been discussed, Beacon may experience a degree of resilience and retail employees return to work. has not filed plans with the city. With to COVID-19’s effect as the need for COVID-19 prompting some developers warehouse and distribution space grows. Retail investment volume remained to temporarily halt projects—like modest in the first quarter of 2020, While values for dense, in-fill locations Hines and Ivanhoe Cambridge’s T3 down both quarter-over-quarter and continue to skyrocket, Denver’s booming development at 3500 Blake Street in year-over-year. With the latest disruption suburbs are growing in prominence as RiNo—it’s possible Beacon will seek to of the COVID-19 pandemic, which well. In the first quarter of 2020, Interpark wait out the pandemic’s upheaval before has inarguably had the greatest effect Industrial Center sold for $194 per square working to monetize the land parcel. on the retail and hospitality sectors, foot (psf), well about the market-at-large investment sales volume for retail is only 2019 was a blockbuster year for industrial warehouse average of $126 psf. Cold- likely to grow leaner as 2020 progresses. investment sales, recording a cyclical storage, particularly as the demand for The one exception is grocery and high of nearly $2 billion in investment fresh groceries rises, remains an important perhaps grocery-anchored strip centers, sales. Activity remained strong in the staple of the industrial investment market which remain stable due to the steady in Denver, as does cannabis real estate. consumer demand. Market Cycle | Denver, CO PHASE KEY PHASE 1 RECOVERY Phase Change PHASE 2 EXPANSION Phase Progression Retail PHASE 3 HYPERSUPPLY Industrial Office 11 10 Multi-Family 12 PHASE 4 RECESSION 9 8 13 7 LT Average Occupancy 6 14 5 15 4 16 Source: Mueller Q4, 2019 1 2 3 1 Partnership. Performance. 2 avisonyoung.com First Quarter 2020 / Capital Markets Research Report Transaction Volume (trailing 12 months - in millions) $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 Johns Manville Plaza In February, Brookfield purchased $2,000 two buildings from Shortenstein Properties, 717 17th and 707 17th $0 Street, for a combined $400 million. 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1Q19 1Q20 717 17th Street was valued at $205 million, or $290 psf, a competitive price for an older building in the Buyer Composition submarket. The purchase marks an 100% expansion of Brookfield’s growing 90% portfolio in Denver. They currently 80% own and manage 1801 California and 70% Republic Plaza to mention a few of 60% their other CBD assets. 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Cross‐Border Institutional REIT/Listed Private User Share of Volume by Product Type - Trailing 12 Months 24% 23%Interpark Industrial Center 1Q 2019 1Q 2020 San Francisco investor Stockbridge 49% 54%Real Estate bought a two-building 1Q 2019 1Q 14%2020 13%portfolio in Broomfield in February for 32% 30%13% 10%$46.5 million, or $194 psf. Together the $10.4 buildings were 89.7% leased at the time BILLION $10.4 48% 40% of sale. This is considerably higher than BILLION 13% 20% average for the area, where the average 8% 10% price is $144 psf, a clear indication of the continued value of industrial buildings near growing urban hubs like Broomfield. Stockbridge previously purchased four buildings in Denver in October of 2019, seeking distribution Office Multi‐Family Industrial Retail hubs in strategic locations. Partnership. Performance. 3 avisonyoung.com Local Economic Indicators Denver Employment Growth 2010-2020 The Denver economy has experienced 55,000 12.0% tremendous growth since the beginning 45,000 of the cycle, with the Denver Metro GDP growing an average of 5% year-over- 35,000 9.0% year between 2010-2019. Prior to the 25,000 pandemic, unemployment in Denver had 15,000 6.0% reached record lows, reporting just 2.7% 5,000 unemployment in February of 2020. However, (5,000) 3.0% with businesses across all sectors shutting (15,000) down amidst shelter-in-place initiatives, (25,000) 0.0% employment growth is likely to stagnate Mar‐10 Mar‐11 Mar‐12 Mar‐13 Mar‐14 Mar‐15 Mar‐16 Mar‐17 Mar‐18 Mar‐19 Mar‐20 and unemployment rise as 2020 progresses. YOY Employment Growth Unemployment Select First Quarter Sales Price per SF/ Property Type Size Price Buyer Unit Airways Business Center - 2470 Airport Boulevard Industrial 423,000 sf $36,000,000 $85/sf Prologis (part of IPT acquisition) Interpark Industrial Center - 11363 Reed Way Industrial 239,816 sf $46,525,000 $194/sf Stockbridge Capital 5501 Peoria Street Industrial 228,376 sf $19,500,000 $85/sf Prologis (part of IPT acquisition) 3821-3897 Steele Street Industrial 482,700 sf $73,800,000 $153/sf Harbert Management Corp Dove Valley Business Center - 14101 E.
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